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October 2013:
The Lib Dems are still suffering the
hangover-from-hell that we woke up
to on the morning of 7 May 2010
by Stephen Tall on August 30, 2013
That doesnt mean the leadership will emerge unscathed. Lib Dem members are, after all, a feistily
independent bunch: they will inflict at least one
My partys still suffering the hangover-from-hell that bloody nose on Nick, partly on the principle of the
issue (whichever one it is) and partly to show they
we woke up to on the morning of 7 May 2010. Until
can. There are plenty of potential flare-ups. For exthen we had been able to maintain a pretence, at
ample, theres a proposal to drop the partys opposileast for our own benefit, that we would form a mation to tuition fees (yes, in spite of everything, the Lib
jority government and introduce our manifesto
Dems are still officially against them, though I dont
wholesale. And if that didnt happen in one bound
know anyone who thinks we can seriously put that to
wed wangle it so that electoral reform guaranteed
the
voters again). Or theres the cautious welcome
us our fair share of MPs the election after. The dousoffered
to well-regulated fracking. Emergency moing of Cleggmania followed by the crushing AV refertions
on
the detention of David Miranda or British
endum defeat was a double whammy. Our bright
intervention
in Syria, for instance, could also throw a
hope of changing the face of British politics has
curve-ball.
given way to the grim reality that 2015 will be what
party president Tim Farron has termed a survival
The most likely defeat, however, will be on Danny
election.
Alexanders half-hearted proposal to oppose both
Its all much easier for the Tories. Sure, theyve had like-for-like Trident replacement and nuclear disarto compromise in government: poor old David Cam- mament and instead triangulate a middle-way of
taking a couple of steps down the nuclear ladder of
eron is governing with one hand tied behind his
capabilities (as the party has excruciatingly exback, laments Peter Bone, the comedy caricature
Tory MP. But they can credibly pitch to the voters at plained it). Desperate to find a compromise that will
please everyone, we have put forward a policy that
the next election what an unshackled Tory government would do. The Lib Dems, though, face the un- pleases almost no-one. But the plain fact is that,
unless and until we can persuade either Labour or
appetising prospect of an election campaign domithe Tories to adopt our approach, whatever confernated by journalists asking of each of our pledges,
But do you actually mean this one? Is it a red line or ence decides wont matter a jot. In fact, itll be just
like the old days.
is it up for grabs?
As the interminable hangover lingers, Lib Dems are
getting more grumpy with each other. Nick Clegg
accuses activists of hankering for the comfort blanket of national opposition a pretty ungracious response to a party which has stuck by him and the
November 2013:
The Lib Dem reshuffle was male,
pale and stale and likely to remain
so
by Stephen Tall on October 13, 2013
Its easy to see why party leaders dont like reshuffles. What seems like the moment of ultimate power,
when you hold in the palm of your hand the destinies
of your colleagues, more often triggers a chain reaction of unintended consequences. When Nick Clegg
elbowed aside Scottish secretary Michael Moore,
whose self-effacing, sweet reason out-smarted Alex
Salmond in the Edinburgh Agreement negotiations, it
was because he reckoned his replacement, the genially feisty Alistair Carmichael, would be a better
match for the SNP leader in next years independence campaign.
It wasnt just Mr Moores feathers which were ruffled
by his ruthless despatch; so too were those of Sir
Menzies Campbell, who looked on the now exScottish secretary as his protg. Its probably not a
coincidence that Sir Ming, whose formidable wife
Elspeth had given strong hints hed re-stand for a
sixth term in Fife North East in 2015, decided that
same week to announce his retirement. His 9,048
majority may look healthy on paper, but it means the
Scottish partys meagre resources will now have to
be stretched even thinner to defend a seat which
would otherwise have been thought rock solid.
Another incident is perhaps more revealing of how
the best laid schemes gang aft agley. Last year,
Nick Harvey was briskly dismissed as armed forces
minister by the Deputy Prime Minister, who guiltily
gave him a knighthood to make up for it. This year,
Sir Nick Harvey was offered re-entry into government with the post of Lib Dem chief whip, vacant
thanks to Alistair Carmichaels elevation. But, instead of being grateful, Sir Nick turned plain old Mr
Clegg down. The Lib Dem leader was forced instead
to promote old-hand Don Foster (who famously vanquished Chris Patten in Bath in 1992 to the sound of
cheers from jubilant Lib Dems and right-wing Tories
alike). Its hard to square this same-old-names merry
-go-round with Mr Cleggs declared aim of provid
[ing] the opportunity for as many in our ranks as possible to contribute their skills to Ministerial office.
That choice quote is from his exchange of letters
with another of the evictees, home office minister
Jeremy Browne. Regarded as a Coalition loyalist
and the partys ber-Orange Booker, his was the
surprise exit of the reshuffle. I asked one Cleggite
why hed been booted out: He was given the
chance to put a liberal imprint on the Home Office.
Ask yourself if he took that opportunity, came the
pointed reply. Well, quite. The issue which has
caused Mr Clegg most grief in the past year has
been civil liberties. Whether it was the snoopers
charter, the extension of secret courts, the go
December 2013:
Be careful what you wish for. Lib
Dems werent in 2010. Will we be in
2015?
January 2014:
How can the Lib Dems halt their
polling Groundhog Day?
by Stephen Tall on December 9, 2013
The party now has to confront the truth that its only
route into government for the forseeable future is in
coalition with either of the two main parties. That inevitably means compromise, pegging the Lib Dems
as the party of moderate, fair-minded pragmatism.
Cleggs embrace of the liberal centre is a case of
making a virtue from necessity.
That MEPs are elected by proportional representation should offer some protection to the 12-strong Lib
Dem group. The party is keen, rightly, to highlight
that its fortunes are faring much better in our target
seats than in the country as a whole as the successful defence in the Eastleigh by-election demonstrated. However, given the enormous size of the
UKs European constituencies South East England, for instance, stretches from Dover to Oxford
taking in nine counties the party desperately needs
to get out its vote where it has MPs to make up for
the collapse of support elsewhere.
February 2014:
A spectre is haunting the Lib Dems
the spectre of wipeout
March 2014:
Its War! The Lib Dems enemy
within strategy shows its no longer
peace in our time
April 2014:
Nick v Nigel hope is now the
official Lib Dem electoral strategy
May 2014:
Might Clegg jump before 2015?
Heres how it could work
by Stephen Tall on April 20, 2014
of another few hundred councillors across the country. Indeed, the total number of Lib Dem councillors
will very likely plummet below 2,000 for the first time
since 1983 and at least then the SDP/Liberal Alliance was on its way up, not down.
How would the Lib Dems respond to this doomsday
scenario: battered in the Euros, bloodied in the locals? Officially Nick Clegg has vowed to stay on until
at least 2020: I fully intend to continue being leader
up to, through and beyond the next election, and
through the next parliament. He knows no other answer would satisfy the media. In reality, his fate
hinges on two decisions: that of his party this May,
and that of the voters a year later.
Clegg will probably be allowed by his party to hang
on until 2015. One of the remarkable features of this
parliament has been quite how loyal to their leader
Lib Dem MPs have been: few noises-off and no defections. Yes, Vince Cable remains (somewhat
aloofly) ready to wear the crown, though never, apparently, to wield the dagger. And yes, there have
been some signs of jockeying for position Danny
Alexander in particular seems to be on manoeuvres
but this is with a view to a post-2015 leadership
contest, not a direct challenge to Cleggs authority.
None of Cleggs colleagues appear willing to give
him the push.
Might Clegg jump? Might he bite on a cyanide pill for
the sake of Lib Dem survival? Its not impossible.
Heres how it could work Clegg announces that he
will resign as party leader but continue as Deputy
Prime Minister:
June 2014:
The pragmatists have it why Clegg
will cling on
by Stephen Tall on May 26, 2014
July 2014:
Why getting battered and bruised
may turn out to be an unavoidable
occupational hazard of being Lib
Dem leader
October 2014:
The Lib Dems are still alive Just
about.
Coetzee label which can leave the partys more organic activists wincing). Such voters respond especially well to party lines of which you can expect to
hear much more Labour wasted their opportunity
and ruined the economy, You cant count on the
by Stephen Tall on October 20, 2014
Tories to care about others including the need for
The Lib Dem spinners were more than a little nervous the next government to be balanced and sensible. In
short, they like the idea of the Lib Dems being in
in the lead-up to the partys conference in Glasgow.
power to leaven the worst effects of single-party rule.
Not about headline-grabbing policy defeats at the
hands of the party grassroots carefully constructed
There is a problem, though. Those identified as supcompromises had been hammered out in advance.
Nor about any last-minute tilt at unseating Nick Clegg porters or potential converts represent only a little
more than one-fifth of the electorate. In other words,
even those unhappiest with his leadership have
the upper limit of the potential Lib Dem vote next May
come to accept he will lead the party into the May
is less than the actual share of the vote the party won
2015 general election.
in 2010.
What did trouble them was the change in the usual
conference order. Traditionally, the Lib Dems are first Fortunately, the party has a secret weapon. Actually
its not a secret, but somehow that doesnt lessen its
up among the three main parties. That normally
potency. Its known as incumbency, the ability of Lib
means fine-ish weather, and, more importantly, that
Dem MPs to dig in locally like cockroaches, as
political journalists are a little sunnier, too: less tired
party president Tim Farron once remarked enaand cynically acerbic than usual.
bling them to buck the national trend.
But this year, the Lib Dems were last up, displaced by
The latest batch of Lord Ashcrofts constituency pollthe Scottish independence referendum. Would the
press pack which had already been on the road for ing, focusing on Lib Dem must-win seats and released in the run-up to the conference, showed just
a month, missing their families and subsisting on an
how important it is for the party. When the public was
away-from-home diet of canaps and late nights
asked how they would vote in a general election in
take it out on Clegg & Co? The partys media team
decided to send them small gifts, such as bunches of the Lib Dem / Tory battlegrounds, just 20% named
the Lib Dems. Yet, asked how they would vote in their
bananas, to cheer them up each morning.
own constituency, 32% opted for the Lib Dem candidate, a sizeable uplift of 12 per cent.
In the end, they neednt have worried. Going last
worked well for the party. Labours ominously flat conference will be remembered for Ed Milibands glaring Such is the value of incumbency. Though the party
forgetfulness in his conference speech: his Freudian realises the loss of a swathe of Labour-facing seats
won on an anti-Iraq, anti-fees, anti-Brown backlash is
failure to mention the deficit or immigration was an
inevitable, two-thirds of its MPs will face Conservative
astonishing gift to his opponents. By contrast, the
challengers, and they are all still in play.
Conservative conference was remarkably chipper.
David Cameron, his position too weakened by Ukips
insurgence to be able to withstand his partys push to Its that reality which accounted for the dominant
mood in Glasgow: a grim, doughty determination to
the right, gave his delegates the red meat theyve
beat the odds. Talk privately to senior Lib Dems and
been demanding: the promise of yet more hardline
most believe the party should hold at least 30, perpolicies on social security, immigration and Europe.
haps even 40, seats if they really buckle down in the
next six months.
It was all teed-up perfectly for Nick Clegg to remind
the party faithful (and, believe me, those of us whove
stuck by the party this far really are the faithful) of the Their campaigning activity is closely monitored by
party HQ; those whose efforts are found lacking get
key Lib Dem message: The Liberal Democrats will
the hair-dryer treatment from Paddy Ashdown, the
borrow less than Labour, but well cut less than the
former Royal Marine who Clegg, very smartly, put in
Tories. Well finish the job, but well finish it in a way
charge of the partys 2015 campaign. It was Ashdown
that is fair.
who led the Lib Dems when the party doubled its tally
Its an adroitly triangulated pitch which has been care- of MPs in 1997. Hes also a trained killer. His full skills
-set may be needed in the next six months if the Lib
fully tested by the partys own private polling and
found to be popular not only with current Lib Dem vot- Dems are to survive the next election.
ers, but also with those who say they are open to the
idea of voting Lib Dem the persuadables, as the Available online at: http://stephentall.org/2014/10/20/
partys campaigns director Ryan Coetzee terms them. my-total-politics-column-the-coming-lib-dem-battle-topersuade-the-persuadables/#sthash.A63PRSqU.dpuf
Collectively, this group which includes current Labour and Conservative voters as well as those who
are undecided is the Lib Dem market (another
November 2014:
The coming Lib Dem battle to
persuade the persuadables
December 2014:
Tidings of comfort and joy for the
Lib Dems. Ish. Very ish.
by Stephen Tall on November 23, 2014
Tis the season to be jolly, even for Lib Dems. Bah,
humbug. A year ago, I made a prediction: I dont
expect to see much, if any, uplift in the Lib Dems flat
-lining 10% polling yet. If only How I now yearn for
the times when the partys support was stubbornly
stuck in double-figures. Instead our ratings have
dwindled to about eight per cent, barely ahead of the
Greens, and only narrowly edging out the surging
SNP in one national poll.