Proceedings, Slope Stability 2011: International Symposium on Rock Slope Stability in Open Pit Mining and Civil

Engineering, Vancouver, Canada (September 18-21, 2011)

Stochastic Mechanical Stability Analysis of a High Slope for a

Hydropower Station
Y.H. Guo Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, P.R. China;
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, P.R. China
W.S. Zhu Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, P.R. China
D.J. Yu Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, P.R. China
W.M. Yang Geotechnical and Structural Engineering Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, P.R.
China
X.P. Li School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, P.R. China

Abstract
A Hydropower Station is located in the middle reach of the Dadu River in southwest China. The dam is built in
a mountain gorge with steep valley sides and high slopes. In situ stresses are relatively high and the slope rock
mass is highly unloaded and strongly weathered. Natural slope angles are generally 40~65 and the relative
elevation drop is more than 600m. A variety of different fractures such as faults, dykes and dense fracture zones
due to unloading. Many abutment slopes were formed during construction of the abutments. The stability of
these steep and high slopes during the construction and operation period plays an important role for the safe
construction and operation of the hydropower station. According to the statistical distribution of joints and
fractures at the construction site, the slope is divided into a number of engineering geological zones. For each
zone, a stochastic fracture network and a numerical model of the fractured rock mass are established by the
Monte-Carlo method. The mechanical response of fractured rock masses with different sizes of numerical
models is studied using FLAC3D. The REV characteristic scale is identified for the rock masses in the slopes a
with stochastic fracture network. Numerical simulation is performed to obtain the stress-strain curve, the
mechanical parameters and the strength of the jointed rock mass in the zone. A constitutive relationship
reflecting the mechanical response of the jointed rock mass in the zone is established. Subsequently, the
constitutive model for every zone in the slope is established. With the numerical model and the site monitoring
data, a proprietary stochastic mechanical analysis software and a computer program for fracture and damage
model are both applied for back analysis and stability assessment. In the computation the reinforcing effects by
prestressed cable, rock bolts and shear resistant tunnel are considered.

Introduction

A Hydropower Station is located in the middle reach of the Dadu River, The dam is a concrete double-arch dam
with the maximum height of 210.00m and situated between huge mountains with steep and high slopes. The
maximum water head is 178.00m. The natural slope angle is generally 40~65 and the relative elevation drop is
more than 600m. The bedrock is mainly granite. The rock mass is highly unloaded and strongly weathered.
Colluvial clay with a certain thickness distributes in the slopes on the left and right banks above elevation 1250
m.
Rock dykes, compressional fracture zones, faults, joints and fractures are developed in the rock mass. On the
right bank and in the river bed, six major joint sets are indentified, as well as rock dykes, faults and dense
fracture zones due to unloading are identified. Field investigation indicated that the degree of unloading in the
rock mass on the left bank is related to the formation of fractures with medium dipping angles. Unloaded
fracture zones (XL316-1 and XL9-15) with medium dipping angles and faults f231, f208 revealed are the major factors

affecting the overall stability of the right slope. The maximum lateral initial stress H is measured to be
3.27~26.51MPa and the minimum lateral stress ranges between 2.22~14.51MPa.
A combination of multiple reinforcement methods has been adopted to reinforce the right bank slope, with
comprehensive treatment, real-time monitoring and dynamic design. There are:
(1) Conventional support with shotcrete and rock bolts is adopted to solve the stability problem in the shallow
ground.
(2) Prestressed cables and shear resistant tunnel are arranged together to improve the strength of the
controlling structural planes and to control the deformation in the greater depth. The prestressed cables
should pass through the two major unloaded fracture zones (XL316-1 and XL9-15) as well as faults (f231, f208)
so as to reinforce the key blocks. The shear resistant tunnel is arranged in the middle and lower parts of
the compressional shear zone which is prone to sliding so as to achieve better shear resistant effect..
A number of monitoring points were selected on the slope surface and shallow depth in the study area to monitor
the slope deformation, includes extensometer, dynamometer and anchor bar stress meter, et al. The layout of key
monitoring points in the study area is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Layout of monitoring points in the shallow excavation-affected area in the right slope.

In general, the geological structural elements of the slope distribute typically in vertiaclly orientated zones.
Determination method for mechanical parameters must be geologically-appropriate. Great efforts have been
devoted by Chinese and foreign scholars to obtain accurate mechanical parameters of the jointed rock mass. The
main progress can be summarized in the following aspects:

(1) The empirical method. One of the representative methods is the Hoek-Brown empirical criterion (Hoek,
2002). The quantified rock mass classification system based on the geological strength index (GSI) with
volumetric joint count Jv and the joint condition factor JC and the Hoek-Brown failure criterion are applied
to evaluate the mechanical parameters of rock mass (Yang, Z., et al. 2010, Li, T.L. et al. 2004, Liu, D.Y.,
et al. 1998,). The Hoek-Brown empirical criterion has been widely applied.
(2) The geostatistical method. The distribution of the mechanical parameters of the rock mass is considered to
follow a certain statistical law. The variability of parameters is studied for further stochastic analysis on
stability (Xu, J.P., et al. 1999, Hu, X.R., et al. 2002).
(3) The damage and fracture mechanics method. The material failure is investigated through the physical and
mechanical processes reflecting the change in mesoscopic structures. The macroscopic properties are then
derived from the mesoscopic behaviours by volume averaging (Tan, W.H., et al. 1999, Liao, Q.L., et al.
2005).
(4) The fracture network simulation method (Hu, X.R., et al. 2005, Qiu, S.H., et al. 2005). Rock mass is
considered as the combination of rock matrix elements and fracture elements. Stable mechanical
parameters of rock mass can be obtained by the representative elementary volume through numerical
simulation (Zhang, G.K., et al. 2008, Zhou, C.B., et al. 2007). In recent years, with the development of
numerical techniques, great progress has been achieved in stochastic fracture network simulation, which
shows advantages in acquiring the equivalent mechanical parameters for large-scale fractured rock masses.
In this paper, taking the geological conditions and the excavation process of a high slope for a hydropower
station in southwest China as the background, the slope stability has been analyzed mainly from the point of
view of stochastic mechanics.

Stochastic distribution analysis of rock joint sets in the slope

2.1

Statistical characteristics of fractures and different geological zones in the dam area

The distribution law of the class V structural planes in the adits was statistically analyzed by the window
method(Kulatilake,1984). The statistical results are shown in Table 1~3.
Table 1.

Statistics of dominant occurrence of the fractures planes in the right bank of slope.
Set No. Dominant occurrence Density (%)

Table 2.

194/03

4~5

177/81

3~4

288/63

3~4

254/65

2.5~3.5

77/35

2~3

Statistics of trace length of the class V structural planes in the right bank of slope.
Trace length(m)

0.4~1.0

1.0~3.0

3.0~5.0

>5.0

Right bank(%)

37

58

Proceedings, Slope Stability 2011: International Symposium on Rock Slope Stability in Open Pit Mining and Civil
Engineering, Vancouver, Canada (September 18-21, 2011)

Table 3.

Statistics of spacing of the class V structural planes in the right bank of slope.
Average spacing
(m)

Proportion
(%)

<0.1m

15.1

0.1~0.2m

16.6

0.2~0.4m

35.4

0.4~0.6m

16.4

0.6~0.8m

8.4

>0.8

8.2

The slopes have been divided into various zones, according to the different geological conditions . For each zone,
the characteristic REV is studied based on lithology, combination of fractures and the layout of slope excavation.
The rock joints are mainly described by three parameters, namely, the coordinates of the central point (x0, y0), the
trace length l and the dip angle . The coordinates for the end point of the joint are:

x x 0 (l / 2) cos

y y 0 (l / 2) sin

[1]

Within the selected simulation area, it is assumed the coordinates of the central point (x0, y0) for the trace line of
the structural plane follows the Poisson distribution.
The joint elements are simulated by equivalent solid elements and the parameters are determined by field shear
test for single joint. The inclination of joints is decided by the azimuth , which is defined by the angle
between the x axis and the trace line in the anti-clockwise direction.
The trace length of the fractures is assumed to follow the normal distribution. In the selected simulation area, the
number of joints is determined by the total simulated area and the number of joints in unit area.

2.2

Simulation with stochastic fracture network

According to the statistical distribution functions of fractures obtained in the above section, a series of random
numbers are generated by the Monte-Carlo method, which can be used to represent the geometric parameters of
the fractures (such as dip angle, strike, spacing, trace length and et al.). A series of fractures can then be obtained,
which form the fractures network equivalent to the in situ rock mass.
Based on the above research results, a computer program has been developed to generate stochastic fracture
network for study on the REV. The generated network is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Stochastic fracture network for

the rock mass in the slope of right bank
above elevation 1225m (model dimension:
10m10m, including 3 joint sets).

Figure 3. Relationship between critical strength vs. specimen

size for rock masses under different confining pressures.

Numerical loading tests on jointed rock mass

3.1

Determination of representative elementary volume

According to the stochastic joint set distribution in the simulated area, the typical intact rock block is taken as the
basic element, and the mechanical parameters obtained by field tests on single fractures are taken as the
parameters of fracture elements. A fracture network which can satisfy the statistical law of the fracture network
in the slope is generated. The FLAC3D method is adopted to simulate a quasi-three dimensional loading.
The relationship between the critical strength of the rock mass and the size of the quasi-three dimensional
specimen is obtained by numerical loading tests, as shown in Figure 3.It can be seen from Figure 3 that the
minimum characteristic scale is about 7m for the fractured rock masses in the slope. Therefore, the mechanical
parameters must be determined using specimens greater than 7m in size.

3.2

Calculation of equivalent fractured rock mass

According to the geological zonation and the equivalent approach, the mechanical parameters of the rock mass
in various weathered zones and the mechanical parameters of fractures in various unloading zones are obtained
by laboratory and field experiments, as shown in Table 4. Numerical tests are then carried out to find the
equivalent mechanical parameter for the fractured rock mass. The stress-strain curves and Mohr-Coulomb
envelop are obtained as shown in Figure 4. The calculation results show that the strength criterion obeys a power
function envelop model as following.

Table 4.

Parameters obtained by numerical loading tests on granite.

Completely
weathered

Weathering
degree

Strongly
weathered

Highly

Upper section of
slightly weathered

Lower section of
slightly weathered

Slightly
fresh

unloaded

Highly
unloaded

Slightly
unloaded

Highly
unloaded

Slightly
unloaded

Rock mass
classification

Set No.

Unloading
features

1.7MPa

5.8MPa

6.8MPa

12.3MPa

Parameters of

rock mass

55.06

55.87

55.63

56.33

5.71GPa

21.7GPa

23.9GPa

38.8GPa

0.15MPa

0.15MPa

0.2MPa

26.6

26.6

36.8

26.6

36.8

44.4

Parameters of
fractures

Figure 4. The Mohr envelop for the fractured rock mass.

Figure 5. Scheme of shear failure

of rock bridge (dashed line
represents rock bridge).

By calculating of the fitting, the yield function obeys empirical relationship. The equation is shown in the
following.

0 aeb

[2]

Where parameters is the mean stress of the element, is the critical shear strength of the element, 0 , a and b
are fitting parameters and different in different rock mass which are shown in Table 5 in the flowing,

Table 5.

The Mohr Coulomb envelope parameters obtained by numerical loading tests.

Rock mass classification No.

0 (MPa)

1.75

7.95

11.3

10.8

12.6

22.9

a(MPa)

-1.38 -6.94 -9.60 -9.53 -1.07 -2.08

b(1E-7)

6.66

3.21

Back analysis of parameters for sliding zone

4.1

Selection of constitutive model

2.29

2.61

2.27

1.38

For the fractured rock masses, as the equivalent approach has been adopted to study the mechanical properties
and the representative elementary volume has been identified, continuum mechanics can be applied. Hence, the
equivalent elasto-plastic constitutive model is selected and the Mohr Coulomb envelop strength criterion adopted.
For faults, the mechanical behaviours are dominated by opening and slip failure. They are simulated by the
interface elements in FLAC3D program.
For dense fracture zones due to unloading, with rock failure and continuous development of fractures during
excavation, the equivalent mechanical parameters gradually deteriorate. Therefore, the constitutive model needs
to reflect the gradually weakening mechanical parameters with variation of the stress field. Two models are
adopted to simulate the geological elements in the dense fracture zones, namely, the stochastic mechanical
model coupled with strain softening model and the fracture damage model.

4.2

Initial damage constitutive equation based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion and damage

evolution equations

Two constitutive relationships are used for analysing the stability of dense fracture zones respectively: A
damage-fracture model and a stochastic mechanical model coupled with a strain softening model. The principle
of former one is as following (Q.S., Ma 2009).
For rock masses consisting of n groups of arbitrarily oriented cracks, the flexibility matrix can be obtained by
coordinate transformation as:
n

[C ] [C 0 ] [A i 1 ]T [ C i ][A i ] 1 .

[3]

i 1

The new equivalent stress tensor for the plastic damage in the shear damage zone can be derived:

3N 3I ds (E 31 E 33 )N .

[4]

3I t
dt

1N 3I
E 33 .
E 33

[5]

2 N 2I ds (E 21 E 23 )N .

[6]

Utilizing the new equivalent stress tensor, the initial damage constitutive equation can be built referring to the
specific format of Mohr-Coulomb criterion in FLAC3D.
The shear stress n1 on the crack surface can be written as:

n1 1 2 sin a cos a f j H ( n ) n c j .

[7]

If n1 0 , he secondary cracks occur at the tip of the original crack.

When the secondary crack propagates to some extent, rock bridges (dashed line) coalesce as the shear
stress reaches the critical value, as illustrated in Fig. 5.
Stress analysis on the rock bridge indicates that:
CD
CD
CD
If n 2 f k H ( n ) n ck 0 , the rock bridge fails under shear.

The crack damage evolution equations above can be incorporated into the embedded programming language
FISH in FLAC3D software.
The computation of crack damage evolution can be divided into two parts, namely, initiation of secondary wing
cracks at the tip of original cracks and shear failure of rock bridges between wing cracks.

4.3

Stochastic model

According to the layout of sections,the monitoring instrumentation and the relationship between the outcrops of
the unloaded fracture zones and f231 on the excavation face, the cross section VIII with typical geological
condition is taken as the object for the slope stability analysis. Two dense fracture zones due to unloading are
identified in this section, which are highly relaxed and 60~90m and 0~30m away from the excavation face,
respectively. They strike generally parallel to the slope and dip outwards. They are located above elevation
1165m and extend for more than 200m. The fracture zone widths are generally 1m~5m. They connect with two
major faults at elevations below 1200m. The potential unstable block formed by the dense fracture zones and the
faults controls the stability of this slope section. The layout of monitoring points in cross section VIII is shown in
Figure 6.
A quasi three-dimensional numerical model is adopted for the analysis. The model is 700m along the horizontal
axis and 620m along the vertical direction. It is 50m along the vertical axis from the river bed to the bottom of
the model. It is 4m along Z ditrction. The four sides and the bottom of the model are fixed. The size of the
model is described in Figure 7.
The coordinate system is defined as follows: The horizontal X axis is parallel to the plane in which the cross
section lies. The positive X direction points from the slope surface toward the interior of the mountain. The Y
axis is the vertical direction and the vertical upward is the positive direction. The Z axis is perpendicular to the
cross section.
The finite element program ANSYS is employed to build the model and generate meshes. Mainly eight-node
iso-parametric solid elements are used for finite element discretization, with some six-node elements. The entire
computation domain is divided into 36000 nodes and 17788 elements, as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 6. Layout of monitoring points in cross section VIII.

Figure 7. Geological zonation of section VIII.

4.4

Back analysis results of mechanical parameters for sliding zone

According to the above-mentioned conditions, back analysis was carried out with the constitutive
model and the field monitoring data, using a self-developed stochastic mechanical analysis software
and a computer program for fracture damage for slope construction. The mechanical parameters of structural
planes are obtained, which are subsequently used in the following forward analysis and stability assessment.
The target function for back analysis is established as follows:
N

J ( x ) [ f i ( x ) ui ]2

[8]

i 1

where f i (x ) is the calculated relative displacement along the measurement direction of ith measurement point;

ui is the measured relative displacement along the measurement direction; n is the number of measurement
points. Therefore, the back analysis process becomes the problem for solving the minimum value of the function
J (x ) .When J(x) equal to zero, the calculating parameters could be the actual parameters of rock mass.
By reiteratively adjusting the mechanical parameters for the rock mass in the study area, the displacement curve
at the key point M4 and M3 are obtained by back analysis and shown in Table 6. Tables 7-8 list the back analysis
results for different models.
Table 6.

The measured and back-analyzed displacement at key points.

Point no.

Table 7.

M4

M3

Measured displacement(mm)

1.13 7.01

Back-analyzed displacement(mm)

0.88 6.54

Back analysis results from the elasto-plastic model based on the Mohr-Coulomb envelop strength

criterion.
LP- VIII

Table 8.

Initial equivalent strength parameters

(natural)
Friction angle ()

Cohesion c(MPa)

f231

25.2

0.66

XL316-1, XL09-15

45

0.8

Back analysis results based on the fracture damage model.

LP- VIII

Initial equivalent strength parameters

(natural)
Friction angle ()

Cohesion c(MPa)

f231

25.2

0.7

XL316-1, XL09-15

40

0.8

Forward analysis and stability analysis

The gravity increasing overloading method is adopted for slope stability. The safety factors and plastic zones
computed by two models are showing as following in tables 9 and10.
Table 9. The long-term safety factor calculated by the overloading method.
safety factor
LPVIII

Fracture damage
model

Stochastic mechanical model coupling

with strain softening

1.33

1.34

Table 10. Plastic area calculated based on the two models.

plastic area
LPVIII

Facture damage
model

Stochastic mechanical model coupling

with strain softening

1875m2

879m2

Figure 8. Plastic area calculated based on the facture Figure 9. Plastic area calculated based on the MohrCoulomb envelop strength criterion (strain softening
damage model.
model).

Figure 10. Stress state in the section VIII after Figure 11. The failure mode simulated by overloading
consolidation.
method.
As shown in Figures 8-11 and the white line in the figure represents the contact surfaces of faults. In the stress
state plot, the blue and green portions are dominated by tensile stress, while the yellow and red portions are
dominated by shear stress. After excavation is completed, the following features are observed in the distribution
of plastic zones: (1) The plastic zones develop along the faults, especially at locations where a few faults
intersect; (2) The plastic zones develop along the unloaded fracture zone XL316-1 and the failure in the slope
surface is predominantly tensile failure. Except XL316-1, no shear yield zones are observed in the slope.
Tables 9 and10 show the safety factors calculated by the stochastic mechanical model coupling with strain
softening model and the facture damage model are very close, but the plastic area calculated by the damage
fracture model is about twice that calculated by the stochastic mechanical model coupling with strain softening
model.
According to the over-loading experiment, the failure mode is also studied. The plastic zones at shallow depth
are mainly the unstable blocks divided by f237 and f223. The plastic zones at first coalesce near the diabase
dykes and faults and then gradually lead to the formation of unstable blocks. Above elevation 1200m in this
section, the slope surface is mainly affected by fault cutting and the stress state is predominantly tensile stress,
which are the potential unstable factors. The unstable blocks are pushed out under the action of gravity and thus
surface cracks are formed.
The long-term factor of safety is 1.33 after support installation calculated by the overloading method. The slope

is considered basically stable in the current state. As the excavation process is not yet completed,
further work will be carrided out as the project developes and site conditions allow.

Conclusions

1. Based on the laboratory experiments of mechanical properties of rock blocks and field tests on single
fracture planes, the mechanical parameters are transformed into rock mass mechanical parameters by
stochastic mechanical analysis of the characteristic elements in the rock mass. For the typical slope
section, back analysis has been conducted using the monitoring data recorded mainly by the
extensometers as the target function. The back-analyzed features of displacement field agree well with

the monitoring data. It indicates that the stochastic mechanical analysis method and the calculated
mechanical parameters of rock mass can reflect the deformation and strength characteristics of rock
mass in the field.
2. The results obtained by back analysis and forward analysis based on the fracture damage model are
coMPared with those obtained by the stochastic mechanical analysis method and the softening model
obeying the Mohr-Coulomb envelop yielding criterion. The results are consistent in generally and the
applicability of the newly developed fracture damage model is verified.
3. The stability analysis on the typical slope section shows that the safety factor for the slope with
complex geological conditions reaches more than 1.3 after multiple reinforcement measures are taken.
Hence, it is considered basically stable in the current state. Three-dimensional slope stability analysis
will be carried out in the future study.

Acknowledgement

The work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China 41072234 , 50979052 and 50974100.

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