PROBABILITY

Basic concepts:
Independent events: Two events A and B are said to be independent if occurrence of one does not
depend upon the occurrence of the other.
Multiplication rule:
If E1 and E2 are independent events then
P(E1 E2) = P(E1) . P(E2)
Ex-1: The probability that A hits a target is

and the probability that B hits it is . what is the probability

that the target will be hit if both A & B shoot at it ?

Solution:
Let E1 be the event that A hits the target and E2 is the event that B hits the target. then
P(E1)= and P(E2)=
E1 and E2 are independent events.
P(E1 E2)

= P(E1) . P(E2)
=
=

P ( the target is hit)

= P(A hits or B hits)

=P(E1 E2)
= P(E1) .+P(E2) - P(E1 E2)
=
=

Ex-2:
A & B throw a die alternately till one of them gets a 6 and wins the game. Find their respective
probabilities of winning if A starts first.
Solution:

Let E is the event that A gets a 6, and F is the event that B gets a 6.
Then P(E) = , P(F)=
P(F)=

P( )=1

P( )=1

P(A wins)= P[E or E or E

= P(E)+ P( ).P( ).P(E)+P( ).P( ).P( ).P( ).P(E)

=

=
=
=

P(B wins)=1-

Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events associated with the same sample space S of a random experiment, then the
conditional probability of occurrence of A given that B has already occurred is denoted by P(A|B) and is
given by
P(A|B)=

, P(B)

Example 1: A die is thrown twice and the sum of the number appearing is observed to be 8. What is the
conditional probability that the number 5 has appeared at least once?
Solution: Let A is the event of getting the sum and B is the event that 5 appears at least once.
Then, A= { (2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (6,2), (5,5)}
B={(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(1,5),(2,5),(3,5),(4,5),(6,5)}

Thus n(A)=5, n(B)=11 and n(

The required probability = P(B/A)=

=2

Example 2: A couple has 2 children. Find the probability that both are boys if it is known that
(i) One of the children is a boy and (ii) The elder child is a boy.
Solution: S={B1B2, B1G2 ,G1B2 ,G1G2}
(i) Let E is the event that both the children are boys and F is the event that one of the children is a boy.
Here n(E)=1, n(F)= 3 and n (

)=1
( )

(ii) E is the event that both the children are boys. H is the event that the elder child is a boy then
E={B1B2} H= { B1B2,B1G2}
= {B1B2}
( )
Theorem of Total Probability:
Let E1, E2, E3. En be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated with a random experiment and
let A be the event that occurs with some Ei, then Prove that
P(A)=

A/Ei). P(Ei)

Bayes Theorem and its application

Let E1, E2, E3. En be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events associated with a random experiment and
let A be the event that occurs with some Ei, then
( )

P(Ei/A)=

( )

, i=1,2. n.
Probability Distribution

Random variable:
A random variable is a function whose domain is the sample space of a random experiment and whose
range is a sub set of real numbers.
OR
Let S be the sample space associated with a given random experiment. A real value function X which
assigns a unique real number X(w) to each w S, is called a random variable.
Example: suppose a coin is tossed thrice

Then S= {HH,HT,TH,TT}
Let X is a real valued function on S which denotes the number of heads, then
X(HH)=2, X(HT)=1, X(TH)=1, X(TT)=0
Mean and variance of Random Variables:
Let a random variable X takes the values x1,x2,x3,x4,x5.xn with probabilities
p1,p2,p3pn respectively such that each pi 0 and
and is defined as =E(X)=
and variance (

)=

=1 .Then mean of X denoted by

Or E(X)

and Standard Deviation( )=

Binomial Distribution
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Distribution
If a random experiment consist of n trials then these trials are called Bernoulli trials if they satisfy the
following conditions

(i) n is finite and is defined before the experiment begins.

(ii) Each trial has only two possible outcomes usually called successes and failures .
(iii) the result of any trail is independent of the result of all other trials , and
(iv) the probability of success p does not change from trial to trial.

Bernoulli Theorem
Let there be n independent trials in an experiment and let the random variable X denote the number of
success in these trials. let the probability of getting a success in a single trial be p and that of getting a
failure be q so that p + q =1. Then
P(X=r)= nCr
.

Probability Work sheet

1. Find the probability distribution of number of doublets in three throws of a pair
of dice.
2. Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In box I, coins
are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold
and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the
coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also of
gold?
3. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports
that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six
4. An urn contains 4 red and 3 blue balls. Find the probability distribution of the
number of blue balls in a random draw of 3 balls, with replacement.
5. A company has two plants to manufacture machines. Plant A manufactures
70%and plant B manufactures 30% machines. At plant A, 80% machines are rated
of standard quality and at plant B, 90% machines are rated of standard quality. A
machine is chosen at random and is found to be of standard quality. What is the
probability that it was manufactured by plant A ?
6. A family has two children. What is the probability that both the children are
boys given that at least one of them is a boy?
7. Find the variance of the number obtained on a throw of an unbiased die ?.
8. In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 35% and 40% of the
total. Of their output 5%, 4%, 2% are defective. A bolt is drawn at random from
the product. If the bolt drawn is found to be defective, find the probability that it
is a product of machine B?
What value inherent above question?
9. An insurance company insured 2000 cyclists, 4000 scooter drivers and 6000
motorbike drivers. The probability of an accident involving a cyclist, scooter
driver and a motor bike driver are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the
insured persons meet with an accident. What is the probability that he is a

scooter driver? Which mode of transport would you suggest to a student and
why?
10. How many times must a man toss a fair coin so that the probability of at least
one head is more than 90% ?
11. A die is thrown twice and the sum of numbers appearing is observed to be 7.
What is the conditional probability that the number 2 has appeared at least once.
12. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and
6000 truck drivers. The probability accidents is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively.
One of the insured persons met with an accident. What is the probability that he is
a scooter driver? What moral value will you assign to all?

Marking scheme

Let X denote the number of doublets. Possible doublets are

1M

(1,1) , (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)

Clearly, X can take the value 0, 1, 2, or 3.

1M

Similarly P(X=2)=P( two doublets and one non doublet)=

And P(X=3)=P(three doublets)=

15
216

1
216

Required Probability distribution is

P(X)

125
216

75
216

15
216

1
216

Let E1, E2 and E3 be the events that boxes I, II and III are chosen,
respectively.

1M

1
Then P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E3) = 3

1M

Also, let A be the event that the coin drawn is of gold

2
1
Then P(A|E1) = P(a gold coin from bag I) = 2

P(A|E2) = P(a gold coin from bag II) = 0

1
P(A|E3) = P(a gold coin from bag III) = 2

1 M

Now, the probability that the other coin in the box is of gold
= the probability that gold coin is drawn from the box I.
= P(E1|A)
By Bayes' theorem, we know that

1 M

Let E be the event that the man reports that six occurs in the
throwing of the die and let S1 be the event that six occurs and S2 be

the event that six does not occur.

1M

1
Then P(S1) = Probability that six occurs = 6
5
P(S2) = Probability that six does not occur = 6

3.

P(E|S1) = Probability that the man reports that six occurs when six
has
actually occurred on the die

1M

3
= Probability that the man speaks the truth = 4

P(E|S2) = Probability that the man reports that six occurs when six
has
1M

not actually occurred on the die

= Probability that the man does not speak the truth =

3 1

4 4

Thus, by Bayes' theorem, we get

P(S1|E) = Probability that the report of the man that six has occurred
is

1M

actually a six

1M

3
Hence, the required probability is = 8

1 M

M
4.

Let X denote the no of blue balls.

Then X can take values 0,1,2,3

3
7

P(blue ball)= ; P(a red ball)=

4
7

4 4 4 64
Now P(X=0)=P(no blue ball)= 3C0
7 7 7 343

3 4 4
7 7 7

P(X=1)=P(one blue and two red balls)= 3C1

3 3 4
7 7 7

108
343

3 3 3
7 7 7

27
343

P(X=2)= 3C2
P(X=3)= 3C3

144
343

The required probability distribution is

M

P(X=x)

64
343

144
343

108
343

27
343

1M

5.

Let E: machine is of standard quality.

7
3
; P( B)
10
10
8
9
P( E / A) ; P( E / B)
10
10
P( A).P( E / A)
P( A / E )

P( A).P( E / A) P( B).P( E / B)
P( A)

56
83

1M

1M

1M

1M

Q.6 S= { (b,b),(g,b),(b,g)(g,g)}
E = both the children are boys,F=atleast one of the child is a boy
P(f) =

, P(E

P(E/F)=

7. S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } X is the random variable which can take values 1,2,3,4,5or6.

1
X

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6

1/6 1/6

P(X)

For getting E(x)=

, E(x2)=

,
1+1

For getting var(x)=

Q.8. B1 : bolt manufactured by machine A , B2 : bolt manufactured by machine B

B3 : bolt manufactured by machine C , E: bolt is defective

. (i)For correct probabilities of B1,B2and B3

(ii) For correct conditional probabilities P(E/B1)=.05, P(E/B2)=.04, P(E/B3)=.02

2
(iii) Use of Bayes theorem and correct solution P(B2/E) =

For correct value answer

9. P(X

[1]

{1-P(X=0)}

[1]

[2]

10.P(E)=

=3
. P(F)=

. P(G)=

[1]

P(A/E)=.01 P(A/F)=.03 P(A/G) =.15

[1]
( )

P(F/A)=
[1]
=

[2]

MORAL VALUE

11.

[1]

A=
B={(1,2),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(3,2),(4,2),(2,4),(5,2),(2,5),(6,2),(2,6)}
A B = (5,2) (2,5)
P(A/B)=

1
1
1
1

12.
P(E1) =

1 1/2

P(E2)=
P(E3)=
A = Ensured person meets accident
P(A/E1)= .01
P(A/E3)= .15

P(A/E2)= .03

1 1/2

P(E1/A)=

=
Moral every driver should have insurance to protect families
future and expenditures on treatment after accident.

Probability Question bank

1. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the number s appearing is observed to be 7.What is the
conditional probability that the number 2 has appeared at least once ?
2. One bag contains 4 white and 2 black. Another bag contains 3 white and 5 black balls. If one
ball is drawn from each bag, find the probability that one is white and the other is black.
3. A speaks truth in 55% cases and B speaks truth in 75% cases. Find the percentage of cases in
which they are likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact.
4. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the number of heads in two tosses of a coin.
5. The sum and the product of mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 24 and 128
respectively. Find the distribution.
6. There are two bags I and II . Bag I contains 2 white and 4 red balls and bag II contains 5 white
and 3 red balls .One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red. Find
the probability that it was drawn from bag II.
7. Assume that each child born is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two children,
what is the conditional probability that both are girls, given that (i ) the youngest is a girl (ii ) at
least one is a girl ?
8. Three cards are drawn successively without replacement from a pack of 52well shuffled cards
.what is the probability the first two cards are kings and third card drawn is an ace?
9. A, B and C in order toss a coin .The first one to throw a head wins. What are their respective
chances of winning if A starts the game ? Assume that the game may continue indefinitely.
10. A card From a pack of 52 cards is lost .From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are
drawn and are found to be diamonds. Find the probability of the missing card to be diamond.
11. There are three coins. One is a two headed coin, another is a biased coin that comes up heads
75 % of the time and the third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen at random
and tossed. If it shows head, what is the probability that it was two headed coin.

12. An insurance company insured 2000 Scooter drivers, 4000 Car drivers & 6000 Truck drivers. The
probabilities of accidents are 0.01, 0.03 & 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets
with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?
13. The probability that a student selected at random from a class will pass in mathematics is and
the probability that he passes in mathematics and computer science is . What is the probability
that he will pass in computer science if it is known that he has passed in mathematics?
14. In a certain school, 20% of the students failed in English,15% of the students failed in
Mathematics and 10% of the students failed in both English .A student is selected at random . If
he failed in English ,what is the probability that he also failed in Mathematics?
15. A, B and C in order toss a coin .The first one to throw a head wins. What are their respective
chances of winning? Assume that the game may continue indefinitely.
16. A problem in mathematics is given to three students whose chances of solving it are

, .

What is the probability that the problem is solved?

17. A bag contains 4 red and 3 blue balls and another contains 3 red and 5 blue balls. A ball is drawn
from the first bag and without noting its colour is put in the second bag. A ball is then drawn
from the second bag. Find the probability that the ball drawn is blue in colour.
18. The reliability of a H.I.V test is specified as follows:
Of people having HIV ,90% of the tests detect the disease but 10% go undetected. Of people
free of HIV , 99% of the tests judged are negative but 1%are (wrongly) diagnosed as HIV +ve .In
a city having only 0.1% have HIV ,one person is randomly chosen, given the HIV test and is
diagnosed as HIV +ve. What is the probability that the person actually has HIV?
19. Suppose a girl throws a die .If she gets 5 or 6 ,she tosses a coin once and notes the number of
heads. If she gets 1,2,3 or 4,she tosses a coins once and notes whether a head or tail is obtained
.If she obtained exactly one head ,what is the probability that she threw a 1,2,3 or 4 with the
die?
20. A insurance company insured 3000 cyclist,4000 scooterists and 5000 car drivers .The
probabilities of the accident involving a cyclist, scooterists and car drivers are 0.02,0.03,0.04
respectively. One of the insured vehicle drivers meets with an accident. Find the probability that
he is a car driver.
Which mode of transport would you suggest to your son and why?
21. In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses.
Let

be the probability that he guesses. Assuming that the student who guesses at the answer

will be correct with a probability

he answered correctly?

,what is the probability that he knew the answer, given that