International Journal of Engineering Sciences, 2(6) June 2013, Pages: 231-236

TI Journals
ISSN
2306-6474

International Journal of Engineering Sciences

www.tijournals.com

Predicting the Input Flow into the Dez Dam Reservoir

using the Optimized Neural Network by Genetic Algorithm
Amir Pourhaghi *1, Ali Mohammad Akhond Ali 2, Feridon Radmanesh 3,
Hassan Torabi Podeh 4, Abozar Solgi 5
1

MSc Student, Department of water Resource Engineering, Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz, Iran
Professor of Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran
3
Assistant Professor of Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran
4
Assistant Professor of Agriculture Faculty, Lorestan University, Iran
5
MSc Student, Department of water Resource Engineering, Shahid Chamran university of Ahvaz, Iran
2

AR TIC LE INF O

AB STR AC T

Keywords:

Awareness of the input flow into the dams reservoirs in future time periods is of the most important
and valuable information which contributes the planners policy making in managing and dedicating
the water resources. This research has been performed to model the amount of input flow into the
Dez dams reservoir using the neural network models. To model by neural network, the monthly
discharge data has been considered as the input data and the data before the model execution has
been considered as the output data of the network. After examining different neural networks
fitness the appropriate models to predict the flow was selected and at the end using the integrated
genetic algorithm the number of appropriate layers and neurons in each layer and the best
repetition number were specified. Finally, the results showed that the neural network model of GFF
with the tangent hyperbolic tangent transfer function and Conjugate gradient training rule had a
better efficiency than other models.

neural network
genetic algorithm
prediction
Dez dam

2013 Int. j. eng. sci. All rights reserved for TI Journals.

1.

Introduction

In recent decades the human being has observed the statistical sciences progress and its development in all scientific fields. This sciences
application in hydrology is important since the hydrologists, planners, and designers have been encountered with predicting the hydrologic
phenomena like flood and drought from the past at the level of local, regional, and national planning. Thus, predicting the input flows into
the dams reservoirs has a special importance for planning according to the water resources. Dez dam is one of the important dams of Iran
which modeling its input flows can be a great step towards its optimized exploitation. A great deal of research has been performed about
the application of neural networks in water sciences engineering around the world among which the rainfall prediction, underground water
modeling, and the rivers flow prediction can be pointed. In a research, Lapdis and Farber (1987) concluded that the neural networks have a
lot of applications in predicting the time series. Using the neural network, Cavazos (2000) predicted the daily rainfall of Balkan and showed
that the artificial neural network (ANN) is an appropriate tool to predict the rainfall prediction in this region. Siva Kumar et al (2002) used
two approaches of nonlinear black box including the fuzzy repair and artificial neural network for predicting the rivers dynamic flow and
the results indicated that both approaches presented reasonable predictions for both periods of 1 to v days. Traflis et al (2003) used the
neural network for storage prediction and management. They used the neural network to model the rainfall-runoff process and concluded
that if they have only the rainfall data, the neural network performance will not have any problems. Imran Maghsud et al (2004) predicted
the wind speed, relative humidity, and temperature for the next 24 hours in Canada and Southern Saskatchewan using the neural network
and regression techniques. They concluded that the neural network model predicts the weather parameters more accurately than regression
models and is able to be extended easily and prevent the extra complex calculations. Hesami et al (2004) used the neural network to
calibrate and estimate the rainfall and showed that the Laurenburg-Markwat function can be an acceptable model for calibration. Mariah et
al (2005) predicted the Sao Paulo regions rainfall in Brazil using the artificial and regression neural networks and showed that the results
and estimation of both mentioned models are so precise for the investigated region. Ahmed and Sarema (2006) used the neural network to
predict flood in sites without statistics. The results of their study showed that the artificial neural network model shows better results than
arbitrary Muskingum approaches. Parida et al (2006) predicted the runoff coefficient of the semi-arid region of Ngotwane and Eastern
Botswana basin till 2020 using the artificial and algorithm neural networks and concluded that each year about 1 percent of the runoff
coefficient is increasing. Bustami et al (2007) predicted the rainfall and water level in Budap, Malaysia, using the neural networks
techniques. The results of their study showed that the artificial neural networks have the predictability of rainfall in the investigated river
with 96.4 percent of accuracy .
In another study, using the multilayer Perceptron model in artificial neural network Chatopadhiai (2007) predicted the seasonal rainfall in
India. Hong et al (2008) predicted rainfall with the contribution of a series of meteorological parameters using the artificial neural

* Corresponding author.
Email address: pourhaghiamir@yahoo.com

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networks models. Dhamshe and Axoy (2009) predicted the monthly rainfall of arid regions in Jordan using the artificial neural network
and regression. The results of their study showed that artificial neural networks give better outputs than multivariable regression .
Derdo (2010) used the neural network and ARIMA model to predict the quality of river water in Turkey and showed that the combination
of these two models with together show better results. Zoe (2010) used the ARIMA model and neural network to predict the water and salt
capacity of the soil, and showed that ARIMA model works better. In a study, Lohani et al (2012) predicted the input flow into the Bhakra
Dams reservoir using the artificial neural network (ANN), Fuzzy (ANFIS), and auto regression (AR) approaches. The results showed that
the ANFIS model has better results than ANN and AR. To predict the daily flow of the Salvajina reservoir in Colombia, Carlos et al (2013)
applied the hybrid artificial intelligence. The results obtained from the experiments carried out using real data from years 1950 to 2006
demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid system .
The main goal of this study is to investigate the artificial neural networks models ability optimized by genetic algorithm to predict the
monthly flow into Dez Dam. Normally, the applied results of this research can provide better strategies of Dez Dams reservoir
management.

2.

Methodology

2.1 The investigated area

Khuzestan Province has an area of 64236 km2, located between the longitudes of 47 degrees and 41 minutes to 50 degrees and 39 of East
and latitude of 29 degrees and 58 minutes to 33 degrees and 4 minutes of North. The height of the area has been utmost 4124 meters and at
least 190 meters variably, and the mean height of the area has been 1676 with the frequency height of utmost 1829 meters. The gravelius
coefficient of the area is 1.76. Regarding the extensiveness and the importance of the Dez region a number of 8 hydrometric sites have been
located in the area. The characteristics of each site have been provided in table 1.
Table 1. Dez areas hydrometric and meteorological sites

station
Sepid dasht zaz
Sepid dasht sezar
Tang pangh bakhtiar
Talleh zang

Lat
4853'
4853'
4846'
4846'

Lon
3320'
3322'
3256'
3255'

height
970
950
600
440

2.2 The artificial neural networks modeling processes

The aim of artificial neural network training is to calculate the different joints weights. In this research three kinds of MLP, GFF, and
MNN networks by two kinds of transfer functions of Sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent were used. These models have been composed of
three layers: input, hidden, and output. There are one or more neurons in each layer. Among the different trainings approaches, the
momentum algorithm, conjugate gradient, and Laurenberg-Markwat were used in this research. Choosing each algorithm is effective on the
learning speed and the networks accuracy. The input for the neural network of the river has been considered in Dez dams upstream
(Talleh Zang site). To choose the best site with the appropriate time delay as the input model the correlational coefficient has been used
according to equation 1.

i 1

i 1

( x x )( y y )

(x x)

i 1

( y y)

(1)
2

Where x is the independent variable (the upstream hydrometric sites) with the mean of x, y is the dependent variable (Talleh Zang Sites
discharge) with the man of y and r is the correlational coefficient between these two variables.
2.3 Evaluation criteria of the prediction approaches
To compare the artificial neural networks models, there are different criteria. The main criterion to evaluate which is applied in this
research is the numeral criterion. The most important numeral criteria which are used to determine the models efficiency and consequently
the selection of the best model are:
1- Root mean square error
n

(calc obs)

RMSE

N
Q

(2)

Calc= calculus data, obs= observational data, N= data amount, and Q= the discharge average during the statistical period. The ideal amount
for RMSE criterion is zero.

Predicting the Input Flow into the Dez Dam Reservoir using the Optimized Neural Network by Genetic Algorithm

233

Internat ional Jour nal of Engineeri ng Science s, 2(6) Month 2013

2-

Correlational coefficient

1
n

(calc avg.abs)
(obs avg.abs)

(3)

Avg.abs: the observational data mean. The ideal amount for R is one.
2.4 Determining the input model
The first stage to model the artificial neural networks is to investigate the correlational coefficient between the discharge of the river at
Talleh Zang Site as the output with the rivers discharge at the upstream with different delays as the input for the model. This is done to
choose the appropriate input for modeling. The results are shown in table 2.
Table 2. The correlational coefficient (r) of Talleh Zang site and the upstream sites with different delays

Station
Lag
A months
Two months
Three months

Tang pangh bakhtiar

Sepid dasht zaz

Sepid dasht sezar

Talleh zang

0.575
0.20
0.06

0.503
0.09
0.16

0.671
0.326
0.049

0.674
0.34
0.058

As it is seen in table 2, Talleh Zang site has the higher correlational coefficient (r=0.674) with the statistics of previous month. The effect of
2 previous months discharge as the models input makes the network complex, increases the degree of freedom, and increases the error.
Accordingly, Talleh Zang sites monthly data is selected with a delay of one month as the best input of the model.
2.5 Formulation and selection of the artificial neural network structure
It should be noted that at first, the artificial neural networks model has been applied without combining with the genetic algorithm, and
then the genetic algorithm has been applied to optimize the best selected neural network structure parameters. The results are shown in the
table 3. After that, the d8 structure was specified as the best selected structure through trial and error of the best division of data to be used.
The results showed that the data divisions have the best evaluation (assessment) in form of 70 percent as the training data, 15 percent the
experimental data, and 15 percent as the accuracy survey data. After a lot of trials and errors the d8 structure was made by two and three
hidden layers and its outcome is shown as the d8 structure. The results showed that the mentioned structure with two hidden layers has more
appropriate evaluative criteria (table 4). The best combination of the number of neurons is in form of 6 neurons in the first layer, 3 neurons
in the second layer, and the maximum of frequency number of 1000.
Table 3. the results obtained from choosing the best type of network, transfer function, and training rule for Talleh Zang Site
Test
Structure

D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
D7
D8
D9
D10
D11
D12
D13
D14
D15
D16
D17
D18

Network
type

MLP

GFF

MNN

Transfer
function

Education Act

Tan Axon
Tan Axon
Tan Axon
Sig Axon
Sig Axon
Sig Axon
Tan Axon
Tan Axon
Tan Axon
Sig Axon
Sig Axon
Sig Axon
Tan Axon
Tan Axon
Tan Axon
Sig Axon
Sig Axon
Sig Axon

momentum
Conjugate Gradient
Levengberg-marquart
momentum
Conjugate Gradient
Levengberg-marquart
Momentum
Conjugate Gradient
Levengberg-marquart
momentum
Conjugate Gradient
Levengberg-marquart
momentum
Conjugate Gradient
Levengberg-marquart
momentum
Conjugate Gradient
Levengberg-marquart

RMSE
Q

NMSE

MAE

0.318
0.403
0.337
0.325
0.328
0.354
0.320
0.311
0.345
0.361
0.327
0.327
0.323
0.321
0.431
0.516
0.385
0.404

0.497
0.628
0.524
0.507
0.512
0.594
0.499
0.489
0.535
0.560
0.510
0.509
0.504
0.502
0.678
0.549
0.597
0.631

37.94
46.78
38.39
38.64
36.91
39.94
37.11
36.91
40.21
49.11
41.79
42.14
38.58
37.51
38.57
78.60
58.53
54.50

0.810
0.801
0.802
0.80
0.806
0.802
0.807
0.810
0.805
0.806
0.804
0.801
0.807
0.809
0.743
0.793
0.804
0.795

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Table 4. The results obtained from the training and testing stage of the selected structure at Talleh Zang Site

Structure

Network
type

Transfer
function

Education
Act

The
number
of hidden
layers

RMSE
Q

Train
MAE

D8

GFF

Tan
Axon

Conjugate
Gradient

0.297

D8

GFF

Tan
Axon

Conjugate
Gradient

0.298

Test
R

RMSE
Q

MAE

25.14

0.821

0.305

0.489

0.813

24.98

0.818

0.307

0.489

0.812

2.6 Combination of the selected neural network with the genetic algorithm
As it is seen in table 4, the d8 structure was selected as the best layer. The structure is integrated with the genetic algorithm and the number
of neurons in each layer, the best number of frequency, and the optimized weights are specified. It should be noted that the training
characteristics of the selected network (d8 structure) combining with genetic algorithm have exactly the same characteristics and parameters
of network without being combined with genetic algorithm. In fact, as it was mentioned before, the aim of this combination and the genetic
algorithm usage is to reduce the error at the training stage and to choose the primary parameters better. In this study to execute the
optimization, the one-point-coupling with the probability of 0.9, uniform mutation with the probability of 0.01, Roulette Wheel, the
population number of 40, the produced maximum generation of 80, and the frequency number of 1000 were used in genetic algorithm. The
summary of the obtained results of the optimization using the genetic algorithm is shown in table 5.
Table 5. The combination of the selected neural network structure with genetic algorithm

Train

Structure

D8

3.

Test

RMSE
Q

NMSE

MAE

RMSE
Q

NMSE

MAE

0.297

0.489

19.71

0.830

0.295

0.489

24.18

0.821

Discussion

As it was mentioned earlier, to achieve the best neural network with the lowest error of RMSE and the highest R coefficient, different

Q
tests were investigated. The neural network model of GFF showed that by the hyperbolic tangent transfer function the training rule of the
couple gradient with two hidden layers and a time delay on the produced output at the test and network training test has the least RMSE
error. It was specified that, through trial and error, the data division/classification of 70 percent as the training data, 15 percent as the
experimental data, and 15 percent as the accuracy survey data has the best evaluative criteria. The best combination of neurons number has
been considered as 6 neurons in the first layer, 3 neurons in the second layer, and the maximum frequency number of 1000. The
optimization of the built artificial neural network by genetic algorithm caused the error reduction and the weights optimization. Therefore,
the results comparison shows that the MNN model has weaker results than other networks (table 8) which indicates the weakness of this
network in hydrologic predictions and the results of the prior studies attest this fact (Coulibay, 2000).
Table 6. Numeral comparison of error in different neural network models

Model

RMSE
Q

Ranking based on the error rate

(MNN)

0.809

0.321

(GFF)

0.83

0.297

0.810

0.318

(MLP)

Predicting the Input Flow into the Dez Dam Reservoir using the Optimized Neural Network by Genetic Algorithm

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Internat ional Jour nal of Engineeri ng Science s, 2(6) Month 2013

Figure 1. Observational and predicted discharge using the neural network model in the statistical period 2008-2010

4.

Conclusion

In the current study by building the artificial neural network and the regression models, the monthly input into the Dez Dam reservoir
prediction was performed. The obtained results of this research can be summarized as following:
1-

The neural network model of GFF showed that by the hyperbolic tangent transfer function, the training couple gradient rule with
two hidden layer and a time delay on the produced output at the test and network training level has the lowest RMSE error.

Q
2345-

The data division/classification of 70 percent as the training data, 15 percent as the experimental data, and 15 percent as the
accuracy survey data has the best evaluative criteria.
The best combination of neurons number has been considered as 6 neurons in the first layer, 3 neurons in the second layer, and
the maximum frequency number of 1000.
The optimization of the built artificial neural network by genetic algorithm caused the error reduction and the weights
optimization.
The MNN shows weaker results than GFF and MLP networks, and according to this research and the prior ones it is clear that the
structure of this network is not appropriate for hydrologic predictions (Coulibaly, 2000).

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