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100%
75%

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56

11.2%

1.0%

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53

18.2%

12.7%

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59

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9.1%

2.0%

64

10.0%

65
6.8%

66

67

3.4%

4.5%

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73

72
6.8%

75

74

10.4%

9.4%

76

77

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79

80

81

7.3%

7.6%

82

83

17.5%

84

85

16.0%

12.2%

86

87

13.7%

11.9%

88

89

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20.8% 10.6% 12.8%

96
11.6%

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98

99

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01

02

6.4%

03

04

4.0%

5.6%

05
3.2%

06

07

7.8%

3.1%

08

09

10

11

50%

50%

25%

25%

0%
(25%)

0%
Calendar Year Returns (incl the Moderate Portfolio)

(25%)

ST. LAURENT

DIEFENBAKER

TRUMAN

EISENHOWER

PEARSON
JOHNSON

KENNEDY

TRUDEAU

$100,000

Highest
Return

FORD

Lowest
Return

60-Month Rolling Periods

Negative
Periods

Highest
Return

Lowest
Return

Negative
Periods

Highest
Return

Lowest
Return

TSE 300 11,389

29.7%

19.5%

29.6%

2.0%

1.3%

1.0%

21.1%

15% Bonds
5% Cash

0.0%

10% Canadian Stocks


10% U.S. Large Stocks

20% Canadian Stocks


20% U.S. Large Stocks
20% World ex-U.S. Stocks

DJIA 2,000

DJIA 3,000

DJIA 5,000

17.3%

27.8%

0.4%

0.0%

2.3%

18.6%

20%

11.0%

capital gains exemption


introduced

$55,242

Confed Life fails

10.8%

$40,578

Nortel high
$124.5034.2% of TSE 300

10.3%

IBM PC
introduced
$3,405 U.S.

30% foreign content rule eliminated

9.8%

Canadas population
34,349,200

Nortel low $0.67

population
(over 65) 13.9%

$11,640

10%
10%

11.6%

48.6%

10.6%

22.0%

1.6%

0.0%

3.3%

16.0%

0.0%

Ontarios top marginal


tax rate 50.3%

DJIA closes above 1,000

8.0%

Hypothetical Moderate Portfolio


down 29% from 2000 high

Russian debt default

Mexican peso crisis

Income Trust tax introduced

$8,473
7.5%

60%

5 year GIC
National Energy 17.5%
Program

Canadian Stocks

U.S. Large Stocks

World ex-U.S. Stocks

U.S. Small Stocks

Bonds

first World Trade Center bombing

Cash

Canada/U.S. auto pact signed

life expectancy

$2,984

Enron

M-66.5 yrs
F-71.0 yrs

Canada/U.S. free trade approved

Chrysler files for


bankruptcy

Bre-X

1st class
stamp 4

Charlottetown referendum defeated

5 year mortgage
21.5%
Canadas first TV broadcast

1st class
stamp
59 +GST

average family
income $82,325

M-17.2 yrs
F-20.6 yrs

$982
3.8%

PCs fall from 169 to 2 seats


Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) closes
above 500

population
(over 65) 7.8%

life expectancy
of a 65 yr old

2nd Quebec referendum


50.4% vote NO

Meech Lake constitution failure


Canadas population
13,712,000

GST starts

Parti Qubcois wins


provincial election

average family
income $12,716

Percentage Returns (June 30, 2011)


1 Yr

3 Yr

5 Yr

10 Yr

20 Yr

30 Yr

Since
Jan 1, 50

Risk

Worst
5 Yrs

U.S. Small Stock Total Return Index in CAD


World Markets ex-U.S. Total Return Index in CAD
U.S. Large Stock Total Return Index in CAD
S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index

24.4
18.6
18.4
20.9

7.0
2.9
1.4
0.2

0.1
0.4
0.0
5.7

3.2
1.9
1.8
8.0

11.5
5.8
7.8
9.4

10.6
8.9
10.2
8.9

13.6
10.9
11.0
10.3

24.8
19.6
17.6
17.1

14.1
5.9
7.5
1.9

Aggressive Portfolio (20% Fixed Income, 80% Equity)


Moderate Portfolio (40% Fixed Income, 60% Equity)
Conservative Portfolio (80% Fixed Income, 20% Equity)

16.9
13.4
8.1

2.2
2.7
5.2

3.0
3.9
5.5

4.0
4.7
6.3

8.8
8.4
8.7

10.2
10.2
10.5

10.8
9.8
8.0

13.0
10.3
7.5

2.0
0.4
1.6

7.0
2.0
0.9
3.1

7.5
2.2
0.8
1.3

7.1
2.6
2.0
1.8

8.2
2.9
2.4
2.0

9.9
4.5
3.9
1.8

11.8
6.9
6.3
3.0

7.5
6.9
5.7
3.8

9.8
3.4
4.0

1.0
2.6
0.9

Chrysler bailout

Growth of $100

first Intel microchip

CBCs first colour TV broadcast


Canadas
first lottery
CPP/QPP approved
($100,000 prize)
OAS reduced from 70 to 65

with no acquisition costs or


taxes & all income reinvested

birth of
Parti Qubcois

Avro Arrow terminated

DEX Long Bond Index


5 Year Guaranteed Investment Certificates
90 Day Canada Treasury Bills
Consumer Price Index (Cost of Living)

$100

$145.31
Arab oil embargo

gold's fixed price of


$35 U.S. per oz abandoned

Oil (West Texas


Intermediate Crude)
$2.57 U.S. per barrel

$850
$482

$195
$4.11

$104

$12.60

$711
22.75%
$38.34

$297

$509

$500

$284

Government of Canada
Long Term Bond Yield

$14.23

10%

$31.70
$10.40

$40.65
$17.50

$37.22

$10.82

$1,213

$1,011
$77.05
$725
$713
$561
$50.51
$30.28

$253

$81.03

$1,553
$1,421
$113.39
$91.48
$64.78
BP oil spill

2.4%

2.6%

Compound Annual Rate of Inflation by Decade

10%

5%

7.6%

6.2%

2.1%

0%

2.1%

RRSP started with

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

a limit of $2,500

$4,000

$5,500

$7,500

$11,500

$12,500

$13,500 $14,500 $13,500

5%

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

$14,500

$15,500 $16,500 $18,000

RRSP

RRSP

$19,000 $20,000

RRSP

RRSP

RRSP

$21,000

$22,000 $22,450

2.4% Unemployment Rate

7.1%

3.4%

6.2%

5.3%

12.7%

$1.00
$0.90

minimum wage
$1.00/hr

$0.80

minimum wage
$2.90/hr

$0.70

6.7%

11.6%

6.7%

0%
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80

$1.0852 Nov 6
Up 75% since Jan 18 02 low

Gross Domestic Product

2%

7.4%

8.7%

Canadian Dollar in USD

dollar peaks at $1.06

10%
5%

Inflation (Cost of Living)

0%

15%
10%

Prime Rate

5%
0%

5.7%

Canada hosts
Winter Olympics

average family
income $38,059

govt of Canada
20 yr bond 17.75%

life expectancy

WorldCom

largest TSE 300 company


BCE Inc. 6.6%

Northland Bank & Canadian


Commercial Bank go bankrupt

Korean War

6.9%

GM files
for bankruptcy

M-78.3 yrs
F-83.0 yrs

Iraq invades Kuwait

Ontarios top marginal tax rate


drops from 82.4% to 59.5%

OAS starts for those over 70

$5,962

9/11 attacks

Berlin Wall torn down

capital gains tax introduced

0%
(2%)

$30,706

Japan earthquake
and tsunami

Ontarios top marginal


tax rate 46.4%

8.1%

15%

$56,959

capital gains exemption eliminated

capital gains exemption


frozen at $100,000

Conservative
20%

$60,150

Lehman Brothers
files for bankruptcy

O&Y bankruptcy

Canadas first
gold coin,
the Maple Leaf,
goes on sale

0.0%

20%

$10,000

S&P/TSX
drops 840.93 points in a
single day most in 8 years

NASDAQ down 78% from Mar 10 00 close

1st Quebec referendum


60% vote NO

24.2%

13.6%

10.9%

20%

50.8%

$248,768

Wall Street
Reform Act

DJIA 7,286 (down 38%)

DJIA 11,723
Asian currency crisis

TSE 300
closes above 1,000

9.7%

S&P/TSX
7,567 (down 50%)

U.S.
subprime
crisis

60% Bonds
20% Cash

30% Bonds
10% Cash

Moderate

30%

S&P/TSX
15,073

S&P/TSX
5,695 (down 50%)

TSE 300 5,000

TSE 300 2,000

10%

OBAMA

Conservative

25%

20%

CLINTON

Negative
Periods

25%

57.7%

HARPER

MARTIN
BUSH

TSE 300 3,000

25% Canadian Stocks


25% U.S. Large Stocks
20% World ex-U.S. Stocks
10% U.S. Small Stocks

10.7%

CHRETIEN

KC
BUSH

REAGAN

120-Month Rolling Periods

5%

10%

CARTER

Moderate

Aggressive

Aggressive
15%

MULRONEY

JT

Hypothetical Portfolios

12-Month Rolling Periods


Compound
Annual Return

TRUDEAU

CLARK

NIXON

Rolling Period Portfolio Performance

$1,000

100%
75%

Compound Annual Returns by Decade

minimum wage
$6.85/hr

minimum wage
$10.25/hr

$0.6202 Jan 18

$0.70
2%
0%

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Hypothetical value of $100 invested at the beginning of 1950. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the Canadian government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than the other asset classes. Furthermore, small stocks are more volatile
than large stocks and are subject to significant price fluctuations, business risks, and are thinly traded. International investments involve special risks such as fluctuations in currency, foreign taxation, economic and political risks, liquidity risks, and differences in accounting and financial standards. Canadian recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, while U.S. recession data is from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Gold prices are from London Bullion Market Association and represent the London P.M. daily closing prices per troy ounce.
Gold and oil prices quoted in U.S. dollars. Hypothetical portfolios were created for illustrative purposes only. They are neither a recommendation, nor actual portfolios. All income was reinvested and the portfolios were rebalanced every 12 months. Returns are compound annual returns, and risk is calculated as the standard deviation of calendar-year returns. The worst 5-year calculations are out of 679 rolling 60-month periods. Source: U.S. Small Stocksrepresented by the fifth capitalization quintile of stocks on the NYSE for 19501981 and the performance of the Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.
U.S. Micro Cap Portfolio thereafter; World Markets ex-U.S.Global Financial Data for 19501969 and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World ex U.S. Index thereafter; U.S. Large Stocksrepresented by the Standard and Poors 90 index from 1950 through February 1957 and the S&P 500 index thereafter, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general; S&P/TSX CompositeCanadian Financial Markets Research Center for 19501955 and Standard and Poors/TSX Composite Index total return series thereafter, which
replaced the TSE300 Total Return Index on May 1, 2002; DEX Long Bond IndexPC-Bond, a business unit of TSX, Inc.; 5 Year Guaranteed Investment CertificatesBank of Canada; 90 Day Canada Treasury BillsBank of Canada; Consumer Price IndexStatistics Canada; Gross Domestic ProductBank of Canada for 19501992 and Statistics Canada thereafter (the second-quarter 2011 GDP value is an average analysts estimate); Canadian Dollar in U.S. DollarsBank of Canada; Prime RateBank of Canada; Government of Canada Long Term Bond YieldBank of Canada. A contraction is
defined by a time period when the stock market value declined from its peak by 20% or more. Expansion measures the recovery of the index from the bottom of a contraction to its previous peak and the subsequent performance of the index until it reaches the next peak level before another 20% decline. 2011 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved.

00

01

02

03

Recessions
CANADA

U.S.A. as per NBER

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

(2%)

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