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Barguna, Bangladesh due to flood and storm surge, earthquake and cyclone.
Bangladesh is among the most disaster prone countries in the world. It experiences extreme
weather conditions and disastrous hazards including: flooding, earthquakes, cyclones and
tidal surges. Several factors including geographical location, vast network of rivers &
channels, an enormous discharge of water heavily laden with sediment, a large number of
islands in between the channels, a shallow northern Bay of Bengal and funneling to the
coastal area of Bangladesh and strong tidal and wind action make the country more
vulnerable to natural disasters. Every year different hazards cause loss of lives and
widespread damage to the economy of Bangladesh. The Naltona Union, Barguna is one of the
most vulnerable areas for disaster since it is located near the Bay of Bengal, at the southern
most part of our country.
Being a disaster prone country, in Bangladesh, the emphasis to make schools safe place of
learning for children is of paramount importance. The United Nations International Strategy
on Disaster Reduction has also given high priority to make school safer. So estimation of
expected economic losses of the school infrastructure in those areas will help the government
and the school authority to have a rough idea about the probable economic loss that can occur
due to a disaster.
There are two types of economic losses due to disaster, such as direct loss and indirect loss.
Direct economic loss quantifies the cost of repair, replacement of structures and lifeline
systems that are damaged as a consequence of a disaster. Example : Repair and replacement
cost of building stocks ,building contents and inventory costs, business interruption losses,
loss of power failure and public utility, loss of transportation and lifeline system.
On the other hand, indirect economic loss assesses the broad and long term implications of
the direct impacts. It estimates the impacts of economic sectors over time and accounts for
both disaster induced supply shortages and demand reductions. Examples of indirect losses
are: Changes in price level, Inflation, Income level, National income/GDP, Unemployment,
loss in different sectors of the economy such as agriculture, manufacturing and service sector.
Compared to a natural disaster's direct effects, indirect losses are more difficult to identify
and measure, and are generally spread over a much wider area.
In this report I have estimated both the direct and indirect expected economic losses of the 21
school infrastructure in Naltona Union, Barguna.
Goals and Objectives:
Being a disaster prone country, every year a good number of academic institutions in
Bangladesh especially school buildings get damaged due to the impact of natural hazards. As
a result, the regular curriculum of the schools gets interrupted and a number of students drop
out of the schools. Because schools are the place where students get their basic education, the
emphasis to make schools safe place of learning for children is of paramount importance.
Realizing the facts, ADPC Bangladesh office conducted the Structural Vulnerabilities of
School Infrastructure in Naltona Union, Barguna, Bangladesh. The study has been
conducted in 21 buildings of 19 selected schools of Naltona Union, Barguna district of
Bangladesh. As an intern in ADPC now we are going to estimate the expected economic loss
of the 21 school buildings based on the findings of structural vulnerability report of ADPC.
The outcome of the study can also be a guideline for the probable loss that can be expected
by those schools if a disaster such as flood, cyclone and earthquake occurs.
Analysis of findings
subjected to water level rise of a range of 90-180 cm. The range for storm surge inundation is
about 0.9 m to 1.8 m. For Cyclone, basic wind speed has been taken from BNBC 2006, which
is 260 Km/hr for Barguna, which has been used for Vulnerability Assessment. Finally for
earthquake, Naltona Union is falling under low earthquake hazard range.
Literature Review:
Natural disasters leave bad impacts on the educational sector. Many educational institutions
in Bangladesh are destroyed either partly or completely in natural disasters. Educational
institutions, especially primary and secondary levels are highly affected with the natural
disasters in Bangladesh. So education is hampered very much, especially in the rural areas of
Bangladesh. Some statistical facts are presented below (Karim,):
Cyclone of 1991, total 9287 educational institutions were damaged either fully or
partly. Among them, primary schools were 5,148 and secondary schools were 1693
Cyclone Sidr in 2007 , in educational sectors resulted in a total value of damage and
losses of BDT 4.7 billion, as some 5,927 educational institutions were partly or fully
damaged. An estimated 4,879 registered secondary and higher secondary schools,
colleges and madrashaes existed prior to the disaster. Out of these, a total of 3,736
(76.6 percent) were either fully or partially
Immediately after any natural disaster students lose their educational materials in the cyclone,
as most people lose their houses. The reconstruction of so many building is very expensive
and time-consuming matter. Many poor students have to stop going to schools for poverty. So
they start looking for means of livelihood at an early age of life. Thus educational activities
are often hindered in Bangladesh due to natural disasters (The World Bank, 2009).
Socio economic Impacts of Disasters on Education Sector:
Floods generally cause much more damage than droughts do in the education sector. Every
year, floods provoke delay of study programs and school damages, mainly those located in
the aforementioned flood prone areas. The compilation of 2006 data obtained from SEILA
Program and the 2003 survey data of WFP/NCDM proves that about 21% of schools in
Cambodia are situated in flood prone areas which equal 1,886 schools, of which 65 percent
are primary schools. Those vulnerable schools are mostly in Kampong Thom (17 percent),
Kandal (15 percent), and Prey Veng (12 percent). The majority of those schools are primary
schools.Among 92 schools interviewed to assess the impacts of flood in Cambodia about 78
% are flooded every year and the scenario gets worsen as 22% are flooded every few years or
rarely. The duration of flooding occurs for more than 3 months per year, ranging from July to
early December. The impacts that are found from the study are:
most of flooding affects schooling at the beginning of the academic year
Flood is one of the factors disrupting study program accomplishment
students always encounter difficulties to go to schools because of road
damages and having to travel across rivers
Mostly, they have to catch a boat to study, which takes longer time and higher
costs to reach schools. Such difficulties could in turn lead to high absenteeism
rate among poor students at the beginning of each academic year.
In some cases, schools were used as an emergency shelters during flooding
time, resulting in damages of school structures, especially school floor.
The other problems incurred by the study in Cambodia due a disaster on the education sectors
are:
Methodology:
For direct loss estimation I have used the following formula to calculate the expected direct
economic loss of school infrastructure:
Direct economic loss = (Damage ratio) X (Cost of the school infrastructure)
I have found out the cost of school infrastructure using a multiple regression model:
Yi = Bo + B1X1i + B2X2i + B3X3i + B4X4i + B5X5i + B6X6i + B7X7i, {where i=1 to 21}
Yi = cost of infrastructure for school building i.
Bo = fixed cost of school infrastructure such as cost of solar panel, water tank, library, etc.
B1 = per square feet construction cost of school building.
X1i = total area of school building i.
Output parameter
Suitability
of
model
Bangladesh
Partly
Jhupri
CIMNE
(2013)
class
F1L
Kutcha
F1L
Semi-Pucka
F2L
Pucka
F2M
Class
risk
Housing
For Cyclone, basic wind speed has been taken from BNBC 2006, which is 260 Km/hr for
Barguna, which has been used for Vulnerability Assessment. Using this information, the
damage ratio for cyclone for katche school building is 100%, for semi-packa and packa is
50%.
Damage Functions for Earthquake Hazard:
Housing
Housing
Input properties of
element at risk
Lost incentives (in terms of money or food) per children for coming to school during
the school closure period after a disaster.
At the end, I have tried to show some correlation of our findings.
Limitations:
One of the major limitations of my study was that I could not physically visit the school
buildings and the campuses and so I was unaware about the following information:
Size of the boundary wall (if there is any) existing in the school premises.
Type of trees existing in the school compound and its market value and also its output
(income from trees) per year.
Size of the pond existing in the school compound and its output per year.
We are also unsure about the exact length of the approach road in the school
compound; we have estimated it from the architectural layout of the school premises.
So both the direct and indirect economic losses have been underestimated due to lack of
information.
Calculating the Direct Economic Loss:
Direct Economic loss is the repairmen or the replacement cost of school buildings, furniture,
utilities, playgrounds, roads and other infrastructure within the school compound.
Direct economic loss = (Damage ratio) X (Cost of the school infrastructure)
We have collected the damage ratio of the 21 school buildings for flood and storm surge,
cyclone and earthquake from the report Structural Vulnerabilities of School Infrastructure
in Naltona Union, Barguna, Bangladesh. And we have calculated the cost of school
infrastructure using the multiple regression model:
Yi = Bo + B1X1i + B2X2i + B3X3i + B4X4i + B5X5i + B6X6i + B7X7i, {where i=1 to 21}
Yi = cost of infrastructure for school building i.
Bo = fixed cost of school infrastructure such as cost of solar panel, water tank, library, etc,
where the cost of water tank and library has been considered to be Tk20000 each and the cost
of solar panel and its accessories has been considered to be Tk40000.
10
B1 = per square feet construction cost of school building {per sq feet cost of katche building
is Tk400, semi packa is Tk900 and packa isTk1400}.
X1i = total area of school building i.
B2 = per square feet construction cost of school playground {Tk100 per sq feet}.
X2i = total area of school playground in school building i.
B3 = construction cost per square feet of approach road in school compound {Tk100 per sq
feet for mud road and Tk150 per sq feet for brick road}.
X3i = area of approach road in school building i.
B4 = present value of tube well in school compound {Tk10000 per tube well}.
X4i = number of tube well in each school compound i.
B5 = present value of furniture in each class room {Tk15000 for katcha class room, Tk20000
for semi packa and Tk25000 for packa}.
X5 = total number of class room in school building i.
B6 = present value of furniture in each teachers room {Tk20000 for katcha teachers room,
Tk30000 for semi packa and Tk40000 for packa}.
X6i = total number of teachers room in school building i.
B7 = construction cost of toilet outside school building { construction cost of katche toilet is
Tk15000 and semi packa toilet is Tk25000}.
X7i = total number of toilet outside school building i.
The detail calculations of the cost of infrastructure have been shown in the annexure.
11
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Building type
by MRVAM
Study
Damage
probability
for flood and
Cost of
storm surge
school
(return period
infrastructure(TK) 25 years )
Direct
Economic
loss(TK) due
to flood and
storm surge
1460275
0.3
438082.5
900388
0.5
450194
9541968
0.2
1908394
17413406
0.2
3482681
1516752
0.3
455025.6
19137825
0.2
3827565
2892946
0.2
578589.2
561296
0.5
280648
2503200
0.2
500640
7903008
0.5
3951504
3236512
0.2
647302.4
15860296
0.2
3172059
3108576
0.2
621715.2
3805272
0.2
761054.4
2583122
0.2
516624.4
2017504
0.2
403500.8
535994
0.5
267997
959472
0.5
479736
6767996
0.2
1353599
1558381
0.3
467514.3
2522786
0.2
504557.2
Semi Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Kutcha
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka
Table: Direct Economic Loss Calculation due to Flood and Storm Surge
12
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Direct economic loss (in TK) for flood and storm surge
13
4B
5A
5B
6
7
8
9
10
18
Building
type by
MRVAM
Study
Cost of school
infrastructure(TK)
Semi
Pucka
1460275
Kutcha
900388
Pucka
9541968
Pucka
17413406
Semi
Pucka
1516752
Pucka
19137825
Pucka
2892946
Kutcha
561296
Pucka
2503200
Kutcha
7903008
Pucka
3236512
Pucka
15860296
Pucka
3108576
Pucka
3805272
Pucka
2583122
Pucka
2017504
Kutcha
535994
Kutcha
959472
Pucka
6767996
Semi
Pucka
1558381
Pucka
2522786
Damage
probability
for
cyclone(basic Direct Economic
wind speed
loss(TK) due to
260 km/hr)
cyclone
14
0.5
730137.5
900388
0.3
2862590
0.3
5224022
0.5
758376
0.3
5741348
0.3
867883.8
561296
0.3
750960
7903008
0.3
970953.6
0.3
4758089
0.3
932572.8
0.3
1141582
0.3
774936.6
0.3
605251.2
535994
959472
0.3
2030399
0.5
779190.5
0.3
756835.8
Pashchim Nishanbaria
G.N.S Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Babuganj Adarsha
Uttorpadma Adarsha
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
15
Serial
Name of Schools
no
1
2
3
4A
4B
5A
5B
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Building
Type by
MRVAM
Study
Damage
probability for
earthquake 43
Cost of school
years returning
infrastructure(TK) period)
Semi Pucka
1460275
0.15
219041.3
900388
0.05
45019.4
9541968
0.15
1431295
17413406
0.15
2612011
1516752
0.15
227512.8
19137825
0.15
2870674
2892946
0.15
433941.9
561296
0.05
28064.8
2503200
0.15
375480
7903008
0.05
395150.4
3236512
0.15
485476.8
15860296
0.15
2379044
3108576
0.15
466286.4
3805272
0.15
570790.8
2583122
0.15
387468.3
2017504
0.15
302625.6
535994
0.05
26799.7
959472
0.05
47973.6
6767996
0.15
1015199
1558381
0.15
233757.2
2522786
0.15
378417.9
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Kutcha
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Pucka
Kutcha
Kutcha
Pucka
Semi Pucka
Pucka
16
Direct
Economic
loss(TK) due
to
earthquake
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
8 out of the 19 schools have a pond in their campuses. If the average yearly income
from fishing in each of the pond is TK 50000, then the amount which is lost due to
flood, cyclone and earthquake is the indirect loss due to flood, cyclone and
earthquake. For instance, if in any year the income from each of the pond turned out
to be TK 40000, then TK 10000 is the lost income or the indirect loss due to flood.
17
The same is the case for lost output from trees in the school campus. All the schools
in the Naltona Union, Barguna have trees. So if the yearly output from trees in each
campus is TK 50000, then the portion of TK 50000 which is lost due to flood, cyclone
and earthquake in a year is the indirect loss of the schools.
For both the cases the indirect loss depends upon the duration of the disaster and the intensity
of the disaster. The greater is the intensity of flood, cyclone and earthquake and the longer
time these disasters stay, the higher is the indirect loss and vice versa.
o Usually in the government primary schools and registered primary schools in the
village, a certain amount of money per student per month (such as TK 100 per
student per month) for encouraging students for coming to schools. Similarly, foods
are also being provided in some schools from the government organization as well as
the NGOs. When the schools remain close after disaster, these incentives are lost.
These are known as the indirect economic loss. Again, the loss amount depends upon
the closure period of the schools due to a disaster which again depends upon the
intensity of the disaster.
Due to lack of information about the yearly output, monthly or daily incentives and also the
intensity of a disaster, we cannot estimate the accurate indirect loss of the schools.
18
19
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
Direct eonomic
loss for
earthquake
Cost of
infrastructure
0
Noltona govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Babuganj govt.
Shialia govt. High
Sonatola govt.
Gazi Mahmood govt.
Noltona govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Babuganj govt.
Shialia govt. High
Sonatola govt.
Gazi Mahmood govt.
Analysis of Findings:
The higher is the cost of infrastructure, the greater is the direct economic loss.
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
Cost of infrastructure
25000000
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
Direct
economic loss
due to
cyclone
The higher is the cost of infrastructure, the lower is the damage probability of flood
and cyclone.
Cost of
infrastructure
20
Pashchim
Gazi Mahmood
G.N.S Adarsha
Maddha Gazi
Sonatola govt.
Gorapadma govt.
Babuganj Adarsha
Purba Garjanbunia
Babuganj govt.
Uttorpadma Adarsha
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Uttorpadma
Aga padma Surja
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt. High
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim
Nishanbaria govt.
Golbunia govt.
Cost of infrastructure
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim
Maddha Gazi
Sonatola govt.
Gorapadma govt.
Babuganj Adarsha
Shialia govt.
Purba
Babuganj govt.
Uttorpadma
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Noltona govt.
Maddha Gazi
Sonatola govt.
Gorapadma
Babuganj
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt.
Purba
Babuganj govt.
Aga padma
Uttorpadma
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Nishanbaria
Garjanbunia
Golbunia govt.
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Noltona govt.
The higher is the probability of damage, the greater is the percentage of direct
economic loss.
21
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
22
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
G.N.S Adarsha
Maddha Gazi
Sonatola govt.
Gorapadma govt.
Babuganj Adarsha
Shialia govt.
Purba
Babuganj govt.
Uttorpadma
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Golbunia govt.
Pashchim
Gazi
Gazi
G.N.S
Maddha
Sonatola
Gorapadma
Babuganj
Shialia
Shialia
Purba
Babuganj
Aga padma
Uttorpadm
Garjanbuni
Garjanbuni
Garjanbuni
Garjanbuni
Nishanbari
Golbunia
Noltona
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Noltona govt.
Figure: Comparison between Probability of Damage and Direct Economic Loss due to Flood
For most of the schools, the higher is the damage probability of flood, the higher is the direct
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
23
Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Uttorpadma
Aga padma Surja
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt. High
Babuganj Adarsha
Gorapadma govt.
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Pashchim
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
G.N.S Adarsha
Maddha Gazi
Sonatola govt.
Gorapadma govt.
Babuganj Adarsha
Shialia govt.
Purba
Babuganj govt.
Uttorpadma
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia high
Garjanbunia govt.
Garjanbunia govt.
Nishanbaria govt.
Golbunia govt.
Noltona govt.
Figure: Comparison between Probability of Damage and Direct Economic Loss due to Cyclone
For some schools the higher damage ratio implies higher economic loss due to cyclone but the
other schools shows inverse relationship between damage ratio and economic loss of cyclone.
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Uttorpadma
Aga padma
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt.
Babuganj
Gorapadma
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Noltona govt.
Golbunia govt.
Nishanbaria
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Garjanbunia
Uttorpadma
Aga padma
Babuganj govt.
Purba
Shialia govt.
Shialia govt.
Babuganj
Gorapadma
Sonatola govt.
Maddha Gazi
G.N.S Adarsha
Gazi Mahmood
Gazi Mahmood
Pashchim
Figure: Comparison between Probability of Damage and Direct Economic Loss due to Earthquake
The higher is the damage ratio of earthquake, the higher is the direct economic loss of earthquake
in most of the cases.
However, the probability of damage for flood and cyclone is higher for katha building, whereas
the cost of infrastructure is low for katche building, so the net effect on direct economic loss
depends upon which effect, the cost of infrastructure or the damage probability is higher.
The higher is the duration of the disaster, the greater is the indirect economic loss.
Usually, flood and cyclone stays longer than earthquake and so the indirect economic
loss is greater for flood and cyclone than for earthquake. On the contrary, if the
incentives are given to children for coming to school on monthly basis instead of daily
24
basis, then the incentives are not lost even if the school remains close for 7 to 8 days
for flood or cyclone; in such situation the indirect economic loss of the schools are
minimal.
Recommendations:
Since the Naltona Union, Barguna is located just beside the Bay of Bengal, this Union
is very much vulnerable to flood and cyclone. So the government of our country can
cross subsidize the school infrastructure of the government and registered government
primary and high schools in those areas. This is, instead of equally subsidizing all the
schools our government should reduce the rate of subsidy in the schools existing in the
high land areas and increase subsidy of the school in low land areas such as Naltona
Union so that the kacha and semi packa school buildings can be made packa which
will reduce the probability of damage and thus the direct economic loss will be
reduced.
At the same time various government and non government agencies can give loans to
the katche and semi packa schools on a short term basis at a very low interest rates so
that those schools can restructure themselves in order to reduce their damage
probability and reduce their economic losses.
Alternatively, the schools should also have their disaster risk reduction and
rehabilitation fund so that they can reduce the expected economic loss their own
respective school with their own money.
Conclusion:
Economic losses by severe disaster can cause long-term reductions in the growth of a nations
economy and trigger inflation. Therefore, evaluation of the economic losses is very much
important to better estimate the economic growth/GDP of the nation. Usually the poorer, low
income countries like Bangladesh are more vulnerable to economic losses due to natural
disaster than the rich nations. By estimating the expected economic losses due to a disaster
we can help protect our economy from a severe disaster that is forthcoming. The significance
of calculating the expected economic losses of school infrastructure due to a disaster in
Naltona Union, Barguna is that the government, school authority, local people, students,
teachers and guardians are well aware of the consequences that are expected to occur in the
coming disaster and so that the school authority and the national government can take
precautionary steps in reducing the losses. The government can plan its national policy and
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programs after incorporating the losses due to the coming disaster and prepare the students
and teachers of the schools accordingly.
Bibliography:
MRVAM (2014). Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment, Modeling & Mapping, an ongoing
project under Department of Disaster Management, Ministry of
Disaster Management & Relief, Peoples Republic of Bangladesh.
ADPC Bangladesh Office. (2014, March). Structural Vulnerabilities in School Infrastructure
N
roup
51.
ADPC Bangladesh Office. (2009, July). Risk Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Syhlet Co
C
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