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THE
4TH
PILLAR
TIMS
RECOMMENDATIONS
IN TWO MINUTES:
NAM TAI PROPERTY INC. (NTP ON THE NEW
YORK STOCK EXCHANGE)
BUY AROUND CURRENT LEVELS
OF US$4.57. USE UP TO 1/12TH OF
YOUR 4TH PILLAR CAPITAL.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ETF (FXA ON THE NEW
YORK STOCK EXCHANGE)
HOLD YOUR SHORT POSITION.
NEW ZEALAND OIL & GAS (NZO ON ASX)
HOLD.
INDOPHIL RESOURCES (IRN ON ASX)
HOLD / BUY UP TO A LIMIT OF
A$0.285.
ASIA PACIFIC DATA CENTRE GROUP
(AJD ON ASX)
HOLD.
YORKEY OPTICAL (STOCK 2788 ON THE
HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE)
HOLD.
RURAL FUNDS GROUP (RFF ON ASX)
HOLD / BUY IF YOUR SHARES WERE
FORCIBLY SOLD.
INSIDE
1. F
XA short sale continues to move further
and further in our favor as the A$ weakens;
keep holding for more gains
2. N
ZO shares hit by falling oil prices; but the
company remains financially strong and
a capital return of NZ$0.15 per share is
coming your way soon
3. IRN takeover one important step closer to
completion; youre up 3.6% in a month with
more to come
4. A
JD continues to appreciate steadily with
5.5% gains so far
5. Y
our Yorkey Optical shares showing 32% gains
6. R
FF restructure caused some foreign
shareholders to have their shares sold
out from under them what to do if this
happened to you
THE
4TH
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real estate assets to enter the property development business. As part of that, they commissioned several
different property valuation companies, both Chinese and international, to conduct valuation and feasibility
studies on how best to use these properties going forward.
Those reports are now in. You can read them all for yourself in full at Nam Tais website: http://www.namtai.
com/investors#investors/real_estates
The bottom line is that the properties, it can be reasonably argued, are conservatively worth at least RMB
1.364 billion, or about US$221 million at current prices, taking into account transactions for comparable
properties in the same areas, and potential future uses.
Feasibility studies by Nam Tais property consultants also came back with robust internal rate of return (IRR)
metrics, under a variety of potential development and sale, or leasing scenarios, all of which would achieve
paybacks that handsomely exceed the cost of capital needed to implement them.
Adding to the profitability, and lowering the risks for Nam Tai, is the fact that it is already sitting on a
significant part of the cash it would need to spend on developing the properties. It also has existing bank
financing facilities that it can draw upon for the balance.
Whats missing now are the necessary government and regulatory approvals for Nam Tai to move forward
full-steam ahead on the redevelopments. If things go to plan, this should happen some time in the first half
of 2015.
In the meantime, the company has been buying back its shares on the market. Every share repurchase at
such a gaping discount to net asset value obviously adds to the value of the remaining shares outstanding.
One buy-back just ended November 30th. Another one may be declared in the near future.
The company has also committed to paying a $0.02 per share quarterly dividend for 2015. This doesnt
sound like much. But its still a yield of 1.75% -- way better than you can get on US dollars in most bank
accounts nowadays.
Of course, Nam Tai is not a certainty to make you money. Theres still plenty of execution risk.
While Nam Tais management has shown itself to be competent stewards of shareholders capital in the
electronics business over a history of almost four decades, that doesnt necessarily mean theyll take to the
property development business like fish to water. But, with the right advisors and their general business
acumen I have confidence they will make a success of the companys future business plans.
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If it goes to plan, Nam Tai will have the first high-quality, integrated property development in the district.
And, importantly, the Shenzhen municipal government is said to be strongly behind the companys plans.
If it comes off, I would expect to go back to the area in 10 years time and find it almost unrecognizable. It
will have been gentrified substantially and become a much more up market neighborhood.
But I dont expect well have to wait nearly that long to see a return on our Nam Tai Property shares. Were
buying in at a distressed valuation that is essentially a significant discount to liquidation value.
I would expect a 20%+ pop in the stock price is realistic in the next 12 to 18 months as the pendulum
merely swings back from stupid cheap to cheap.
And thats really all that were after.
RECOMMENDATION: BUY shares in Nam Tai Property Inc. (NTP on the New York Stock Exchange)
around current levels of US$4.57. Use up to 1/12th of the capital you have available for trading my 4th Pillar
recommendations.
DISCLOSURE: Tim Staermose does not yet own or control any shares in NTP and will wait at least 2
trading days after the release of this report to place any buy orders, to allow you first bite of the cherry.
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Now that the Australian dollar has sunk from a high of about US$1.10 in July 2011 to US$0.85, Australias
relative prices are again much more internationally competitive. And, Im looking forward to going back to
my adopted homeland for the festive season with US dollars in my pocket.
However, its a well-documented fact that currency markets nearly always overshoot both to the upside and
the downside.
So, I would not be at all surprised to see an A$/US$ exchange rate with a 7 in front of it next year.
Accordingly, I dont think there is any hurry to close out your short position in the Australian Dollar
New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZO on the New Zealand Stock Exchange; NZO on
the Australian Securities Exchange) has not escaped the bloodletting.
Including dividends, and factoring in the share price slide since my recommendation, youre now showing
just over a 3% loss.
In addition to the companys chances for exploration success, and existing cash flow from its oil and gas
production, one of the reasons I liked NZO as a low-risk, potentially high-reward investment was that it has a
very strong balance sheet with lots of cash in the bank and no debt.
Well, as it turns out, the companys management has now decided that they are holding too much cash.
And, rather than pay it out in dribs and drabs in the form of dividends, they are seeking shareholder approval
to dole out as much as NZ$60 million of it in one hit.
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Specifically, subject to approval at an upcoming meeting of shareholders, prior to Christmas, they will pay
you NZ$0.75 in cash and then cancel 1 in every 5 shares in the company.
Thats effectively a 15c per share capital return. And, if the share price falls by less than 15c post-capital
return, youll be ahead.
However, its not possible at this stage to predict what is going to happen. And, with oil on thin ice, the
stock price may stay under pressure.
However, once the dust settles, I remain convinced that this is a good company to own shares in. They have
every chance of exploration success. The balance sheet will remain strong even after the capital return, and
cash will keep gushing in.
Exchange). The companys second biggest shareholder Alsons Consolidated of the Philippines, via an
investment company subsidiary, is offering to buy all the shares it does not already own via a Scheme of
Arrangement at A$0.30 per share.
The biggest shareholder in IRN, Glencore of Switzerland, has already said that it will accept the deal
subject to no superior offer being received.
Another major hurdle has also just been cleared, with the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board
(FIRB) giving the deal its tick of approval.
All that really remains is for shareholders to vote in favor of he deal at the Scheme meeting on December
18th. I dont expect any hitch with that, in which case youll be paid your 30c per share by mid-January, and
pocket a 7.1% gain.
And, it will only have taken 10 1/2 weeks or so, representing about 35% annualized profits. Not bad!
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If you can pick up shares now at A$0.285, that is also a very good trade. The annualized profits on offer
would be even more.
on the Australian Securities Exchange) is working out well so far. Youre up about 5.5% in
just over 2 months.
This is clearly a growth industry. The amount of electronic data in existence is mushrooming exponentially,
and the amount that regulators require companies to keep storing is rising commensurately.
Recently I saw a proposal for a similar data storage facility company to list on the Singapore Stock
Exchange. With interest rates and yields generally much lower in Singapore, when a directly comparable
company lists there, it will just make AJDs yield look that much more attractive.
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I remain of the opinion that if we continue to hold our shares in Yorkey, were eventually going to be on the
receiving end of a whole lot more dividends. Most likely, one large special dividend will be forthcoming at some point.
And, with the HK$ pegged to the US$, there is no currency risk holding these shares.
RECOMMENDATION: HOLD. BUY shares in RFF if you found your position forcibly sold recently.
DISCLOSURE: Tim Staermose owns or controls 58,700 shares in RFF purchased at an average of A$0.955.
I S S U E
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THE
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PILLAR
COMPANY
TICKER DATE
ENTRY CURRENT DIVIDENDS
%
WEIGHTING
NOTIONAL
IN USD
PURCHASED PRICE
PRICE
GAIN/LOSS
A$100,000
PORTFOLIO
DMX Corporation**
DMX
19/12/2011 $2.456
$0.967
$1.800
12.7%
New Zealand Oil & Gas
NZO
27/05/2013 $0.695
$0.600
$0.073
-3.2%
Yorkey Optical (HK$)
2788.HK 02/06/2013 $0.780
$0.900
$0.130
32.1%
Australian Dollar short sale
(US$)***
FXA
02/01/2014 $89.300 $85.220
$1.383
3.2%
Rural Funds Group
RFF
01/07/2014 $0.925
$1.050
$0.021
15.8%
Asia Pacific Data Group
AJD
26/09/2014 $1.090
$1.150
$-
5.5%
Indophil Resources
IRN
03/11/2014 $0.280
$0.290
$-
3.6%
Cash*
Total*
4.3%
2.5%
7.7%
11.5%
$2,625.06
$8,063.55
$12,013.96
$2,233.93
$6,862.08
$10,223.88
29.7%
13.9%
12.6%
12.4%
9.6%
$30,942.29
$14,479.39
$13,188.07
$12,946.43
$10,024.50
$26,331.89
$12,321.96
$11,223.05
$11,017.41
$8,530.85
100.0%
$104,283.26
$88,745.06
DATE
SOLD
LIMIT
PRICE
02/10/2014
02/10/2014
02/07/2014
02/07/2014
02/06/2014
27/05/2014
11/04/2014
22/02/2014
20/02/2014
02/01/2014
29/11/2013
04/11/2013
01/10/2013
26/09/2013
27/09/2013
31/07/2013
06/08/2013
14/05/2013
08/05/2013
06/05/2013
10/04/2013
15/03/2013
11/02/2013
20/12/2012
30/11/2012
28/11/2012
20/11/2012
21/09/2012
16/09/2012
16/08/2012
08/08/2012
08/08/2012
19/07/2012
15/07/2012
10/07/2012
04/07/2012
09/02/2012
02/04/2012
14/03/2012
16/12/2011
09/12/2011
03/12/2011
20/10/2011
20/10/2011
20/10/2011
09/09/2011
26/08/2011
27/07/2011
24/06/2011
22/06/2011
24/06/2011
10/06/2011
07/06/2011
02/06/2011
27/05/2011
17/05/2011
10/05/2011
27/04/2011
04/04/2011
$5.150
$0.052
$4.000
$6.510
$12.410
$4.110
$0.360
$0.130
$0.160
$2.700
$0.076
$1.230
$-
$0.270
$0.505
$0.505
$0.325
$3.060
$0.270
$0.355
$0.365
$0.675
$1.725
$0.031
$1.265
-
$3.420
$0.435
$0.265
$2.560
$1.965
$0.745
$0.145
$1.005
$0.094
$1.225
$0.508
$0.305
$0.049
$0.500
$0.130
$3.840
$0.220
$0.785
$0.525
$0.290
$1.750
$1.970
$0.440
$0.145
$0.230
$0.650
$6.680
$3.100
$0.385
$0.335
$2.600
$3.100
$15.250
TWE
NDO
DJS
0917.HK
GNC
AUT
RNC
XCD
GLY
YALN
GCG
PAG
OEG
BVA
APK
NFK
ISS
AIX
FMS
SDL
EOC
LRF
DML
NMS
IDL
OEG
CMJ
RCI
ENK
SPT
ALS
TWO
ORM
CWK
NBS
CUS
DMG
AMU
LLA
GDO
MII
LMC
QML
DKN
CEU
IPX
VPG
CIL
TTY
ISF
WCU
CXS
MRU
BCI
APH
OAK
RDF
BCI
RIV
SELLING
DIVIDENDS
PRICE
$4.240
$0.055
$3.940
$4.630
$8.860
$4.200
$0.370
$0.140
$0.170
$2.960
$0.080
$1.302
$0.062
$0.280
$0.520
$0.480
$0.330
$3.160
$0.050
$0.105
$0.300
$0.720
$0.960
$0.032
$1.270
$0.065
$3.450
$0.520
$0.296
$2.620
$2.060
$0.785
$0.160
$1.000
$0.100
$1.270
$0.540
$0.230
$0.051
$0.550
$0.140
$3.650
$0.310
$0.800
$0.550
$0.300
$1.800
$2.100
$0.500
$0.155
$0.240
$0.700
$7.020
$2.980
$0.400
$0.520
$1.840
$2.920
$16.500
$0.070
$-
$-
$0.040
$0.200
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$0.060
$-
$-
$0.040
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$0.025
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
Total
%
GAIN/LOSS
-16.3%
5.8%
-1.5%
-28.3%
-27.0%
2.2%
2.8%
7.7%
6.3%
9.6%
5.3%
5.9%
100.0%
3.7%
3.0%
-5.0%
1.5%
3.3%
-81.5%
-70.4%
-17.8%
6.7%
-44.3%
3.2%
0.4%
100.0%
2.6%
19.5%
11.6%
3.9%
4.8%
5.4%
10.3%
-0.5%
6.4%
3.7%
6.2%
-24.6%
4.9%
10.0%
7.7%
-4.9%
40.9%
5.1%
4.8%
3.4%
2.9%
6.6%
13.6%
6.9%
4.3%
7.7%
5.1%
-3.9%
3.9%
55.2%
-29.2%
-5.8%
8.2%
WEIGHTING
PROFIT/
LOSS
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
8.33%
12.5%
12.5%
na
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
8.33%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
na
12.5%
6.25%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
6.25%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
15.00%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
4.17%
8.33%
8.33%
8.33%
4.17%
8.33%
$(2,038.83)
$721.15
$(187.50)
$(3,533.03)
$(3,374.29)
$273.72
$347.22
$961.54
$781.25
$802.47
$657.89
$731.71
$51.82
$462.96
$371.29
$(618.81)
$192.31
$408.50
$(6,790.12)
$(8,802.82)
$(2,226.03)
$833.33
$(5,543.48)
$403.23
$49.41
$248.28
$328.95
$1,221.26
$1,455.57
$488.28
$604.33
$671.14
$646.55
$(62.19)
$797.87
$459.18
$808.10
$(2,049.18)
$408.16
$833.33
$641.03
$(742.19)
$3,409.09
$424.63
$396.83
$287.36
$238.10
$549.92
$1,136.36
$574.71
$362.32
$641.03
$424.15
$(161.29)
$324.68
$4,601.99
$(2,435.90)
$(241.94)
$683.06
2.9%
$(7,091.56)
IN USD
$(1,735.05)
$613.70
$(159.56)
$(3,006.61)
$(2,871.52)
$232.94
$295.49
$818.269
$664.844
$682.901
$559.868
$622.683
$44.100
$393.981
$315.965
$(526.609)
$163.654
$347.631
$(5,778.395)
$(7,491.197)
$(1,894.349)
$709.167
$(4,717.500)
$343.145
$42.045
$211.284
$279.934
$1,039.296
$1,238.686
$415.527
$514.281
$571.141
$550.216
$(52.923)
$678.989
$390.765
$687.689
$(1,743.852)
$347.347
$709.167
$545.513
$(631.602)
$2,901.136
$361.359
$337.698
$244.540
$202.619
$467.978
$967.045
$489.080
$308.333
$545.513
$360.953
$(137.258)
$276.299
$3,916.294
$(2,072.949)
$(205.887)
$581.284
$(6,034.91)
I S S U E
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