Presidential Election 2015

Perspectives and Outcomes

Elections

SLFP

7,51,432
5,49,381
39.81% 29.11%( IND)
10,26,005
3,61,250
1952 GE
44.08%
15.52%
7,18,164
10,45,725
1956 GE
27.44% 39.96% (MEP)
1960 (March)
9,08,996
6,48,094
GE
29.62%
21.12%
11,43,290
10,22,154
1960 (July) GE
37.57%
33.59%
15,79,181
12,26,833
1965 - General
38.93%
30.24%
18,92,525
18,39,979
1970 GE
37.91%
36.86%
31,79,221
18,55,331
1977 GE
50.92%
29.72%
1982 RFDM 31,41,223 26,05,983
34,50,811
25,48,438
1982 PE
52.91%
39.07%
21,07,722
14,53,359
1988 PCE
50.96% 35.14% (USA)
1988 25,69,199
22,89,960
Presidential
50.43%
44.95%
28,38,005
17,85,369
1989 GE
50.71%
31.90%
1991 LAE
?
?
29,94,353
23,04,495
1993 PCE
46.90%
36.09%
1947 GE

Sri Lanka
Elections

UNP

Elections
1994 GE
1994 PE
1997 - Local
1999 PCE
1999 PE
2000 GE
2001 GE
2002 LAE
2004 GE
2004 PCE
2005 PE
2006 - Local
2008/9 PCE
2010 PE
2010 GE
2011 LAE
2012/14 PCE

UNP

SLFP

34,98,370
38,87,823
44.04% 48.94% (PA)
27,15,285
47,09,205
35.91%
62.28%
28,79,759
34,18,205
41.25%
48.97%
27,61,864
31,33,658
41.31%
46.87%
3,602,748
43,12,157
42.71%
51.12%
34,77,770
39,00,901
40.22%
45.11%
40,86,026
33,30,815
45.62%
37.19%
41,10,016 22,83,310
58.40%
32.40%
35,04,200
42,23,970
37.83% 45.60% (UPFA)
21,97,892
33,64,239
37.70%
57.70%
47,06,366
48,87,152
48.43%
50.29%
25,26,129
35,15,343
35.60%
49.50%
2,609,386
5,137,170
33.03%
62.24%
4,173,185
6,015,934
40.15%
57.88%
2,357,057
4,846,388
29.34%
60.33%
31% (?)
58% (?)
2,413,659
4,944,572
26.35%
53.99%

Results of Presidential Elections (1982-2010)

Year

1982

Reg.
Voters

8,145,015

1988

9,375,742

1994

10,945,065

1999

11,779,200

2005

13,327,160

2010

14,088,500

Total
Polled

Rejected Valid
Votes
Votes

6,602,617

80,470

6,522,147

81.06%

1.22%

98.78%

5,186,223
55.32%

91,445
1.76%

5,094,778
98.24%

7,713,232

151,706

7,561,526

70.47%

1.97%

98.03%

8,635,290
73.31%

199,536
2.31%

8,435,754
97.69%

9,826,778

109,739

9,717,039

73.73%

1.12%

98.88%

1,0495,451
74.49%

101,838 10,393,613
0.97%
99.03%

50%+1

3,261,074

2,547,390
3,780,764
4,217,878
4,858,520
5,196,807

UNP

SLFP/
PA/UPFA

JVP

ACTC

SLMP

3,450,811

2,548,438

52.91%

39.07%

2,569,199
50.43%

2,289,860
44.95%

2,715,283

4,709,205

22,749

114,289

35.91%

62.28%

0.30%

1.51%

3,602,748

4,312,157

344,174

176,675

42.71%

51.12%

4.08%

2.09%

4,706,366

4,887,152

123,521

48.43%

50.29%

1.27%

4173185
40.15%

6,015,934
57.88%

273,428 173,934

Others

4.19%

75,536

2.67%

1.16%
235,719
4.63%

Estimated Number of Electors

by major Ethno-Religious Groups - 2014

Sinhalese Buddhist
Sinhalese Christian

70.19% 10,559,728
4.69%

705,587

11.21%

1,686,487

Indian Tamil (Hindu/Chrisitan)

4.16%

625,851

Islam (Moor & Malay)

9.71%

1,460,820

Others

0.04%

6,018

Sri Lanka Tamil (Hindu/Christian)

Total

100.00% 15,044,490

Cumulative Results of Provincial Council Elections (2012/14)

GOVERNMENT

UPFA
NFF
CWC
UCPF

4,944,572
14,357
63,486
23,913

Total

5,046,328

OPPOSITION

53.99%
0.16%
0.69%
0.27%

UNP
JVP
DP
ITAK
DPF
55.10% Total

2,413,659
367,003
376,728
547,422
51,000
3,755,812

OTHERS

26.35%
4.01%
4.11%
5.98%
4.11%
41.01%

SLMC
ACMC
DUA
Others

236,260
15,491
5,045
99,343

2.58%
0.17%
0.22%
1.08%

Total

356,139

3.89%

Declining Popularity
UVA PCE: 2009 vs. 2014

CBK Popularity
62.28%
51.12%

1994
1999

At the grass-root level, the popularity of the ruling party declines at the annual rate
of 3.94%
The popularity of the President in office declines at the annual rate of 2.23%
It can be predicted that the popularity of (57.88%) President MR and the ruling
UPFA has been declined by 10% since 2010, at the annual rate of 2.5%

Party Strength at Present (Estimation)

PCE 2012/14

Vote Division
4,550,000
4,200,000

3,030,000

1,800,000
1,100,000
360,000

Govt

Opp.

Oth.

Floating (P)

Floating (N)

AB

GOVERNMENT
UPFA
NFF
CWC
UCPF
OPPOSITION
UNP
JVP
DP
ITAK
DPF
SLFP (5%)
OTHERS
SLMC
ACMC
DUA
Others
Floating (Positive)
Floating (Negative)
Absent / Abstain
TOTAL

5,046,328
4,944,572
14,357
63,486
23,913
3,755,812
2,413,659
367,003
376,728
547,422
51,000
356,139
236,260
15,491
5,045
99,343

55.10%
53.99%
0.16%
0.69%
0.27%
41.01%
26.35%
4.01%
4.11%
5.98%
4.11%
3.89%
2.58%
0.17%
0.22%
1.08%

Present Status

4,550,000 30.25%

4,200,000 27.93%

3,950,000

250,000
360,000
250,000
10,000

2.39%

100,000
1,800,000 11.97%
1,100,000 7.31%
3,030,000 20.15%
15,040,000

Forecast 1

Govt. /Opst.

Others

Floating (P)

TOTAL

MR

4,550,000

100%

36,000

10%

630,000

35.0%

5,216,000

MY3

4,200,000

100%

270,000

75% 1,134,000

63.0%

5,604,000

2.0%

90,000

Others

54,000

15%

36,000

Rural Buddhist Votes Divided;

/3 for MR
/3 for SF

Presidential Election 2010

Voting Behaviour of Rural Buddhist Voters
#
Electorate
MR
SF
1Homagama
66.62%
32.50%
2Horana
66.34%
32.21%
3Dompe
69.79%
29.04%
4Karandeniya
71.01%
27.37%
5Kamburubitiya
70.04%
28.37%
6Beliatta
66.93%
31.59%
7Uda-Dumbara
65.31%
31.77%
8Dambulla
65.97%
32.03%
9Hanguranketa
61.43%
34.69%
10Seruwila
63.10%
34.47%
11Ampara
67.94%
30.45%
12Medawachchi
69.25%
28.80%
13Minneriya
69.48%
28.98%
14Wariyapola
68.09%
30.38%
15Aanamaduwa
70.37%
27.67%
16Mahiyangana
60.26%
37.67%
17Wellawaya
70.12%
28.10%
18Kalawana
67.81%
30.14%
19Rambukkana
64.20%
34.33%
Average
67.06%
31.08%

Presidential Election 2010

Voting Behaviour of Urban Buddhist Voters

Urban Buddhist Votes Divided;

60% for MR
40% for SF

Electorate
1Kotte
2Maharagama
3Mahara
4Kelaniya
5Kalutara
6Senkadagala
7Matale
8Ambalangoda
9Matara
10Tangalle
11Anuradhapura West
12Kurunegala
13Badulla
14Rathnapura
15Kegalle
Average

MR
52.17%
62.32%
65.85%
56.92%
62.53%
52.33%
49.67%
62.79%
55.07%
70.59%
64.99%
57.31%
51.57%
63.95%
66.69%
59.65%

SF
46.81%
36.91%
33.18%
42.00%
36.21%
46.44%
47.86%
35.98%
43.97%
27.88%
32.97%
41.22%
46.67%
34.61%
31.79%
38.97%

Presidential Election 2010

Voting Behaviour of Eastern Minorities

# Electorate
EP Muslim and Tamil Votes Divided;
Tamils:
80% for SF
15% for MR
Muslims:
65% for SF
32% for MR

In General,
/3 for SF
/3 for MR

1
2
3
4
5
6

Kalkudah
Batticaloa
Padiruppu
Sammanturai
Kalmunai
Potuvil

7 Trincomalee
8 Mutur
Average

SF

MR

60.45%
68.74%
80.12%
55.95%
75.76%
59.89%

34.14%
27.59%
13.00%
41.42%
21.99%
37.42%

69.42% 26.95%
59.09% 38.03%
66.18% 30.07%

Forecast 2
Enthno-Religious
Groups
Sinhalese Buddhist
Sri Lanka Tamil
(Hindu/Christ.)
Muslim (Moor/Malay)
Sinhalese Catholic
/Christian
Indian Tamil (Hindu /
Christ.)
Others
Total

Reg.
Voters
10,559,728
1,686,487
1,460,820
705,587
625,851
6,018
15,044,490

Total Poll Reject

Valid

MR

MY3

8,025,393 76,241 7,949,152 4,690,000 3,179,661

76.00%
1,096,217
65.00%

0.95%

Others
79,492

99.05%

59.00%

40.00%

1.00%

9,866 1,086,351

108,635

966,852

10,864

10.00%

89.00%

1.00%

100,324 1,003,237

11,147

0.90%

99.10%

1,124,831 10,123 1,114,708

77.00%

0.90%

99.10%

9.00%

90.00%

1.00%

493,911

3,951

489,960

191,084

293,976

4,900

70.00%

0.80%

99.20%

39.00%

60.00%

1.00%

463,130

7,410

455,720

182,288

268,875

4,557

74.00%

1.60%

98.40%

40.00%

59.00%

1.00%

3,912 31.294

3,880

1,164

2,677

39

99.20%

30.00%

69.00%

1.00%

65.00%

0.80%

11,207,394 107,623 11,099,770 5,273,495 5,715,278 110,998

74.50% 0.96%
99.04% 47.51% 51.49%
1.00%

The Factors determine SL Politics

Ethno-nationalism / Communalism
Socio-economic Factors
Engagement of Youths and Women
Election Management / Strategies
Media Agenda
Crossovers / Exposures
Manifestos / Policies
Party Strength and Island-wide Network