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Disclaimer
The analysis and views expressed in this presentation are solely
those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the
U.S. International Trade Commission or any other U.S.
government agency.
Advisory
U.S. Trade Representative
Senate Finance; House Ways and Means
Major Points
Global policies affect trade flows
Major U.S. policy changes occurred in recent years
U.S. policy is under review
Uncertainty and risk continue
Exports have increased in importance to U.S. producers
Topics
Global overview
U.S. market
Policy elements and changes
Implications for U.S. trade
Global Overview
Global ethanol production growth, driven by fuel use, levels off in 2011
Billion gallons
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fuel
Million gallons
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2006
2007
2008
US
2009
Brazil
2010
EU
China
2011
2012
All other
2013
2014
Growth in global fuel ethanol consumption slows: major markets mature and face
constraints, new markets relatively small
25,000
Million gallons
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2006
2007
2008
US
2009
2010
Brazil
EU
2011
China
2012
All other
2013
2014
Million gallons
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2003
2004
USA
2005
EU
2006
Canada
2007
Japan
2008
2009
2010
Central America
2011
Brazil
2012
2013
All other
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
US
2003
EU
2004
2005
2006
Brazil
2007
2008
2009
2010
World
2011
2012
2013
Global ethanol exports remain dominated by Brazil and the United States
2,500
Million gallons
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
United States
2007
Brazil
2008
2009
2010
Central America
2011
2012
All other
2013
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
US
2003
EU
2004
2005
2006
Brazil
2007
2008
2009
2010
World
2011
2012
2013
U.S. Market
Trade policy
Duties
Duty drawbacks
Export promotion
Billion gallons
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Undifferentiated renewable
Cellulosic
Undifferentiated advanced
Biomass-based diesel
The RFS resulted in dramatic ethanol market growth in the mid-2000s; growth slows in 2011
16,000
14,000
12,000
Million gallons
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Production
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration.
Consumption
Preferential
2207.10.6010
(undenatured)
2.5 % ad
valorem
Free
2207.20.0010
(denatured)
1.9 % ad
valorem
Free
AGOA, ATPA, Australia, Bahrain, CAFTADR, Canada, CBERA, Chile, Colombia, GSP+
(least-developed), Israel, Jordan, Korea,
Mexico, Morocco, Oman, Panama, Peru,
Singapore
Free
Duty Drawbacks
Jet fuel duty drawbacks facilitated direct imports of
anhydrous ethanol from Brazil during 2004-2008 and
likely mitigated the bulk of import duties.
Drawback provisions were amended to require ethanol in
the exported product after Oct. 1, 2008 in order to receive
drawbacks on the additional duty in HTS chapter 99; jet
fuel can still be used for drawbacks on HTS chapter 22
duties.
Consistent fuel ethanol exports since 2009 have
generated substitution drawbacks that mitigated import
duties.
Result
Thus, imports of fuel ethanol can claim duty drawbacks against sales of jet fuel used by
U.S. carriers for overseas flights, even though jet fuel contains no ethanol
Only valid for HTS chapter 22 duties
700,000
1,000 gallons
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fuel
2007
2008
Other
Source: Estimated by the USITC based on official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
U.S. fuel ethanol imports are dominated by Brazil (including CBI pathway)
700,000
600,000
1,000 gallons
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
CBI
2008
Brazil
2009
Canada
Source: Estimated by the USITC based on official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
2010
All other
2011
2012
2013
U.S. fuel ethanol imports are substantially lower YTD 2014--Brazil, CBI
300,000
250,000
1,000 gallons
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
January-July 2013
January-July 2014
Brazil
Guatemala
Netherlands
Spain
Paraguay
Nicaragua
France
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Jamaica
Sweden
United Kingdom
U.S. fuel ethanol imports enter mainly through ports in Florida and California
160,000
140,000
1,000 gallons
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2009
Miami, FL
Tampa, FL
2010
San Francisco, CA
2011
Los Angeles, CA
2012
Providence, RI
2013
New York, NY
Jan-July 2014
All other
1,000 gallons
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Filled
Unfilled
Source: Estimated by the USITC based on official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce; CBP.
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
400,000
350,000
300,000
1,000 gallons
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Jamaica
2006
2007
El Salvador
2008
Costa Rica
2009
2010
USVI
Source: Estimated by the USITC based on official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce; CBP.
2011
Export Promotion
Relatively new initiative
Ethanol now eligible for funding under the USDA Market Access
Program
RFA, ABFA trade mission to Brazil in Sept-Oct 2013 sponsored by
the Brazil-U.S. Business Council
RFA, Growth Energy, U.S. Grains Council and USDA trade mission
to China in May 2014; Japan and Korea in September 2014
Future missions planned to Latin American and Southeast Asia
1,000
Million gallons
800
600
400
200
0
2003
2004
2005
Canada
2006
EU-27
2007
2008
Brazil
2009
All other
2010
2011
2012
2013
Million gallons
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
Netherlands
2008
2009
United Kingdom
2010
Finland
2011
All other
2012
2013
A major data discrepancy regarding U.S.EU ethanol trade resulted from customs
classification and reporting differences and suggests need for harmonized standards
300
250
Million gallons
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
US exports
2008
2009
EU-27 imports
2010
2011
2012
Difference
Source: EU: GTIS, Global Trade Atlas; U.S.: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Note: Includes HS heading 2207. Most EU imports of fuel ethanol from the United States likely were classified in HS heading 3824.
2013
HS heading 2207 provides for ethyl alcohol, and other spirits, denatured, of any strength.
HS subheading 2710.11 specifically provides for fuel mixtures containing at least 70 percent petroleum
oils, by weight.
HS subheading 3824.90 could provide for ethanol fuel mixtures between E30 and E93?
HSC (WCO) meetingno consensus. Some informal consensus that less than 93% ethanol is the dividing
line between chapter 22 and chapter 38.
ASTM specifies maximum of 2.5% denaturant, minimum of about 92% ethanol for denatured fuel ethanol
standard (D4806).
IRS VEETC denaturant level limited to about 2% (up to 2.5% for rounding). (VEETC expired)
IRS proposed regulation requires additional 0.1% gasoline to qualify for VEETC. (VEETC expired)
EPA allows 2% (2.44% for rounding) denaturant to count toward RFS mandate.
EU Binding Tariff Informations (BTIs)Chapter 38 classification for mixtures as low as E93. UK,
Netherlands, Sweden, Finland.
Denatured
Ethanol
Chemical
Mixtures
70%
petrol
Gasoline
Mixtures
HS subheading 2207.20
HS heading text specifies of any strength--ambiguous
No explanatory notes at WCO level
EU duty: 0.102 euros/liter (about 13% ad valorem)
HS subheading 3824.90
Basket category, contains numerous products
EU duty: 6.5 percent ad valorem
EU E70 customs ruling effectively eliminates this category
HS subheading 2710.12
Mixtures containing at least 70% petroleum products, by
weight
Not a trade issue
New statistical category for U.S. fuel ethanol exports in 2012 clarified market data
100
90
80
70
Million gallons
60
50
40
30
20
10
Canada
Brazil
EU28
Mexico
Peru
All other
Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce. January-March 2012 estimated by USITC.
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sept-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
U.S. fuel ethanol exports to established markets are substantially higher in 2014
500,000
450,000
400,000
1,000 gallons
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
January-July 2013
Canada
Brazil
January-July 2014
United Arab Em
All others
U.S. fuel exports to newer markets have also increased substantially in 2014
100,000
90,000
80,000
1,000 gallons
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
January-July 2013
Philippines
Mexico
Korea
Peru
January-July 2014
India
Singapore
Colombia
Tunisia
Panama
U.S. fuel ethanol is exported mainly through ports in Texas, upper Midwest, New York
350,000
300,000
1,000 gallons
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2012
Houston-Galveston, TX
2013
Detroit, MI
Pembina, ND
Jan-July 2014
Duluth, MN
New York, NY
All other
U.S. ethanol capacity nears final RFS obligation for undifferentiated renewable
fuel (corn ethanol)
16,000
14,000
Million gallons
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Capacity
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
35
Billion gallons
30
25
20
15
5
2009
2010
2011
RFS (EISA)
2012
2013
E10
2014
2015
2016
E10 (adjusted)
2017
2018
2019
E15
2020
2021
E25
Source: Calculated based on the RFS and EIA gasoline consumption forecasts.
Note: Data for comparative purposes regarding different blends. Actual date of blend wall constraint depends on several factors.
2022
Dupont: 30 mg, IA
Poet: 25 my, IA
Abengoa: 25 my, KS
Quad County: 2 my, IA
Biogas
Naptha
Renewable diesel
Ethanol (sorghum)
RIN carryover
Advanced biofuel
Year
Undifferentiated
renewable fuel
Biomass-based
diesel
Cellulosic
Undifferentiated
Total, advanced
biofuel
Share of
gasoline/diesel
(percent)
Billions of gallons
2006
2.78
2007
4.7
4.7
4.02
2008
7.76
2009
10.5
0.5
0.1
0.6
11.1
10.21
2010
12
0.65
0.0065 (0.1)
0.2935 (0.2)
0.95
12.95
8.25
2011
12.6
0.8
0.0066 (0.25)
0.5434 (0.3)
1.35
13.95
8.01
2012
13.2
0.00865 (0.5 )
0.99135 (0.5)
15.2
9.23
2013
13.8
1.28 (1)
0.014 (1)
1.456 (0.75)
2.75
16.55
9.63
2014
14.4
1.75
3.75
18.15
2015
15
1.5
5.5
20.5
2016
15
4.25
7.25
22.25
2017
15
5.5
2.5
24
2018
15
11
26
2019
15
8.5
3.5
13
28
2020
15
10.5
3.5
15
30
2021
15
13.5
3.5
18
33
2022
15
16
21
36
50
GHG reduction
Percent
20
50
60
Source: Energy Policy Act; EISA; 75 Fed. Reg. 76790 (December 9, 2010); various EPA Regulatory Announcements.
Note: The cellulosic volume was lowered substantially 2010-2013 ; the biomass-based diesel standard was combined for 2009 and 2010.
3,000
2,500
750
2,000
500
706
1,500
300
1,000
200
94
243
1,280
500
650
491
800
1,000
2010
Biomass-based diesel
Source: Calculated based on RFS.
2011
Cellulosic
2012
Cellulosic shortfall
2013
Undifferentiated
2,544
2,500
Million gallons
580
2,000
549
1,500
666
295
580
1,000
320
150
245
640
640
EPA NPRM
EPA FR
500
800
0
Biomass-based diesel RINs
Other advanced
MAX
2012 Carryover RINS (D4/D5)
Source: Calculated based on RFS; EPA, 2013 RFS proposal and final rule.
Note: MAX scenario assumes biomass-based diesel production of 1.6 bg and other EPA scenarios in the final rule.
Sugarcane ethanol
Baseline
(may change)
% Reduction
95.85
2011
95.61
0.25
2012
95.34
0.5
2013
97.96
94.89
1.0
2014
97.47
94.41
1.5
2015
96.48
93.45
2.5
2016
95.49
92.50
3.5
2017
94.00
91.06
5.0
2018
92.52
89.62
6.5
2019
91.03
88.18
8.0
2020+
89.06
86.27
10.0
Source: California Air Resources Board, draft Final Regulation Order, available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/CleanFinalRegOrder112612.pdf (accessed
September 9, 2014).
CA LCFS carbon intensity values from applications show wide variation between and
among feedstockscorn ethanol improving carbon profile
Fuel
Pathway
Direct Emissions
Total
Gasoline
CARBOB
99.18
99.18
Corn ethanol
(undenatured)
Lowest
43.21
30
73.21
Highest
62.44
30
92.44
Lowest
17.94
46
63.94
Highest
32.94
46
78.94
Sugarcane ethanol
(undenatured)
Note: As of December, 2012. Only includes values from facilities that filed applications.
Source: California Air Resources Board, available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lu_tables_11282012.pdf.
Canada; Brazil
United States and EU less certain; niches?
New technology/products
Thank You!