Probability

Chapter 2
Probability
Fill-in-the-Blank Questions
Section 2.1
1.

An __________ is any planned process that generates observations.

ANSWER: experiment

2.

The __________ of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment.
ANSWER: sample space

3.

An __________ is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in the sample space.

ANSWER: event

4.

An event is said to be __________ if it consists of exactly one outcome, and __________ if it

consists of two or more outcomes.
ANSWER: simple, compound

5.

Let A = {1,2,3,4} and B = {3,4,5,6,}, then A B {__________}

ANSWER: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

6.

A pictorial representation of events and manipulations with events is obtained by using

__________.
ANSWER: Venn diagrams

7.

If A = {3, 5, 7} and B = {2, 4, 6}, then A and B are said to be __________ or __________ events.
ANSWER: mutually exclusive, disjoint

17

CHAPTER TWO

Section 2.2
8.

For any event A, P(A) should be larger than or equal to __________ , but smaller than or equal to
__________.
ANSWER: 0,1

9.

The relative frequency interpretation of probability is referred to as an __________ interpretation,

because it rests on a property of the experiment rather than on any particular individual concerned
with the experiment.
ANSWER: objective

10.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then the probability of both events occurring
simultaneously is equal to __________.
ANSWER: zero

11.

If P(A) = .50, P(B) = .70, and P ( A B) = .40, then P ( A B) =__________.

ANSWER: .80

12.

If P(A) = .70, P(B) = .60, and P ( A B) = .90, then P ( A B) = __________.

ANSWER: .40

Section 2.3
13.

If the first element of an ordered pair can be selected in 6 ways, and for each of these 6 ways the
second element of the pair can be selected in 4 ways, then the number of pairs is __________.
ANSWER: 24

14.

If a six-sided die is tossed three times in succession, then there are __________ possible 3-tuples.
ANSWER: 216

15.

Any ordered sequence of k objects taken from a set of n distinct objects is called a __________ of
size k of the objects.
ANSWER: permutation

16.

Given a set of n distinct objects, any unordered subset of size k of the objects is called a
__________.
ANSWER: combination

18

Probability

Section 2.4
17.

We use the notation __________ to represent the conditional probability of event A given that
event B has occurred.
ANSWER: P ( B / A)

18.

We use the notation __________ to represent the conditional probability of event B given that
event A has occurred.
ANSWER: P(B/A)

19.

If P(A) = .35, P(B) = .50 and P ( A B) = .20, then P(A/B) is __________.

ANSWER: .40

20.

If P(A) = .60, P(B) = .30, and P(A/B) = .50, then P ( A B) is __________.

ANSWER: .15

21.

If P ( A B ) = .123 and P(A/B) = .60, then P(B) is __________.

ANSWER: .205

Section 2.5
22.

Two events A and B are __________ if P(A/B) = P(A).

ANSWER: independent

23.

If P(A) = .25, P(B) = .40, and events A and B are independent, then P ( A B) is __________.
ANSWER: .10

24.

Two events A and B are __________ if P ( A B) P( A) P( B) .

ANSWER: dependent

25.

If P(A) =.60, P(B) = .40, and events A and B are independent, then P(A/B) is __________.
ANSWER: .60

26.

If P(A) = .30, P(B) = .20, and events A and B are independent, then P ( A B) is __________.
ANSWER: .14

19

CHAPTER TWO

Multiple-Choice Questions
Section 2.1
27.

Which of the following statements is always true?

A. The complement of an event A, denoted by A , is the set of all outcomes in the sample space
that are not contained in A.
B. The union of two events A and B, denoted by A B , is the event consisting of all outcomes
that are in both events.
C. The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by A B , is the event consisting of all
outcomes that are either in A or in B.
D. All of the above
ANSWER: A

28.

Which of the following statements is correct?

A. The term probability refers to the study of certainty.
B. With sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, and event A = {3,4,5,6}, then A = {1,2,3,4}.
C. When events A and B have no outcomes in common, they are said to be mutually exclusive or
disjoint events.
D. None of the above
ANSWER: C

29.

The sample space for the experiment in which a six-sided die is thrown twice consists of how
many outcomes?
A.
B.
C.
D.

6
36
12
24

ANSWER: B
30.

Which of the following is true for events M and N?

A.
B.
C.
D.

( M N ) M N
( M N ) M N
Neither A nor B is true
Both A and B are true

ANSWER: D

20

Probability

Section 2.2
31.

The probability of an event A and the probability of its complement A always sum to
A.
B.
C.
D.

0
1
2
any positive value

ANSWER: B
32.

For any two events A and B,

A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

P ( A B ) = P(A) + P(B)
P ( A B ) = P( A) P ( B )
P ( A B ) = P(A) + P(B) - P ( A B)
P ( A B ) = P( A) P ( B )
P ( A B) = 0

ANSWER: C
33.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

A.
B.
C.
D.

P ( A B) = 0
P ( A B) = 0
P ( A B) = P ( A B)
All of the above

ANSWER: B
34.

If A and B are disjoint events with P(A)>0 and P(B)>0, then

A.
B.
C.
D.

P ( A B ) = P(A) + P(B)
P ( A B ) = P( A) P ( B )
P ( A B ) = P(A) + P(B)
P ( A B ) = P( A) P ( B )

ANSWER: A
35.

If P(A) =.35 and P(B) = .45, then P ( A B)

A.
B.
C.
D.

is .10
is .80
is .20
Cannot be determined from the given information

ANSWER: D

21

CHAPTER TWO

Section 2.3
36.

A homeowner doing some remodeling requires the services of both a plumbing contractor and an
electrical contractor. If there are 15 plumbing contractors, and 10 electrical contractors available
in the area, in how many ways can the contractors be chosen?
A.
B.
C.
D.

15
10
25
150

ANSWER: D
37.

How many permutations of size 3 can be constructed from the set (A, B, C, D, E)?
A.
B.
C.
D.

60
20
15
8

ANSWER: A
38.

How many combinations of size 4 can be formed from a set of 6 distinct objects?
A.
B.
C.
D.

36
24
15
10

ANSWER: C
39.

Which of the following statements is true?

A. The number of combinations of size k from a particular set is larger than the number of
permutations.
B. The number of combinations of size k from a particular set is smaller than the number of
permutations.
C. The number of combinations of size k from a particular set is equal to the number of
permutations.
D. None of the above
ANSWER: B

40.

An experiment consists of three stages. There are five ways to accomplish the first stage, four
ways to accomplish the second stage, and three ways to accomplish the third stage. The total
number of ways to accomplish the experiment is
A.
B.
C.
D.

60
20
15
12

ANSWER: A

22

Probability
41.

In many counting and probability problems, a useful configuration that can be used to represent
pictorially all the possibilities (sample space and probabilities) is the
A.
B.
C.
D.

product rule for ordered pairs

histogram
Venn diagram
tree diagram

ANSWER: D

Section 2.4
42.

If P(A) = .40, P(B) = .30, and P A B ) = .15, then P(A/B) is

A.
B.
C.
D.

.375
.12
.50
.045

ANSWER: C
43.

If P(A) =. 60, P(B) = .40, and P(A/B) = .75, then P A B ) is

A. .30
B. .45
C. .24
D. .80
ANSWER: A

44.

Let A1 and A2 be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, with P ( A1 ) = .10 and P ( A2 ) = .25. Let
B by any event such that P ( B / A1 ) = .50 and P ( B / A2 ) = .80, then P(B) is
A.
B.
C.
D.

.75
.25
.35
.60

ANSWER: B
45.

Let A1 , A2 ,.... Ak be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events. Then for any other event B, P(B) =
P ( B / A1 ) P ( A1 ) L L P ( B / Ak ) P ( Ak ) is well known as
A.
B.
C.
D.

De Morgans laws of probability

The multiplication rule
Bayers theorem
The law of total probability

ANSWER: D

23

CHAPTER TWO
46.

If P(B) = .40 and P(A/B) = .75, then

A.
B.
C.
D.

P(A) cannot be determined from the given information

P(A) = .35
P(A) = .30
P(A) = .25

ANSWER: A
47.

Let A1 and A2 be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, with P ( A1 ) = .10 and P ( A2 ) = .25.
Let B be any event such that P ( B / A1 ) = .50 and P ( B / A2 ) = .80, then P ( A1 / B) is
A.
B.
C.
D.

.40
.25
.20
.05

ANSWER: C
48.

For events A and B with P(B) > 0, which of the following is always true?
A.
B.
C.
D.

P ( A / B) P( B / A) P( A B )
P (A/B) = P(B/A)
P (A/B) + P(B/A) = 1
P (A/B) + P ( A / B) = 1

ANSWER: D

Section 2.5
49.

If events A and B are independent, which of the following statements are true?
A. A and B are independent
B. A and B are independent
C. Aand B are independent
D. All of the above are true
E. None of the above are true
ANSWER: D

50.

If P(A) = .30, P(B) = .60, and P ( A B) = .18, then events A and B are
A.
B.
C.
D.

dependent
independent
mutually exclusive
complementary

ANSWER: B

24

Probability
51.

Which of the following is (are) true if events A and B are mutually exclusive with P(B) > 0?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

P ( A B) = 0
P(A/B) = 0
A and B cannot be independent
None of the above is true
All of the above are true

ANSWER: E
52.

If P(A/B) = P(A), and P(B/A) = P(B), then events A and B are said to be
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

mutually exclusive
dependent
independent
disjoint
complementary

ANSWER: C
53.

If P(A) = .30, P(B) = .10 and events A and B are independent, then P ( A B ) is
A.
B.
C.
D.

.63
.70
.90
.40

ANSWER: A
54.

Suppose that A and B are independent events with P(A) = .40 and P(B) = .70, then P ( B / A) is
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.

.28
.30
.60
1.10
None of the above

ANSWER: B

25

CHAPTER TWO

Applied and Computational Questions

Section 2.1
55.

Each of a sample of four home mortgages is classified as fixed rate (F) or variable rate (V).
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.

What are the 16 outcomes in S?

Which outcomes are in the event that exactly two of the selected mortgages are fixed rate?
Which outcomes are in the event that all four mortgages are of the same type?
Which outcomes are in the event that at most one of the four is a variable-rate mortgage?
What is the union of the events in parts (c) and (d), and what is the intersection of these two
events?
What are the union and intersection of the two events in parts (b) and (c)?

ANSWER:
a.
Home Mortgage Number
Outcome
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.

56.

2
F
F
F
F
V
V
V
V
F
F
F
F
V
V
V
V

3
F
F
V
V
F
F
V
V
F
F
V
V
F
F
V
V

4
F
V
F
V
F
V
F
V
F
V
F
V
F
V
F
V

Outcome numbers 4, 6, 7, 10, 11,13

Outcome numbers 1, 16
Outcome numbers 1, 2, 3, 5, 9
The Union: outcomes 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 16. The Intersection: outcome 1.
The Union: outcomes 1, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 16. The Intersection: this cannot happen. (There
are no outcomes in common) :b c = .

Suppose that vehicles taking a particular freeway exit can turn right (R), turn left (L), or go
straight (S). Consider observing the direction for each of three successive vehicles.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

26

1
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

List all outcomes in the event A that all three vehicles go in the same direction.
List all outcomes in the event B that all three vehicles take different directions.
List all outcomes in the event C that exactly two of the three vehicles turn right.
List all outcomes in the even D that exactly tow vehicles go in the same direction.
List outcomes in D , C D, and C D.

Probability

ANSWER:
a. Event A = { RRR, LLL, SSS }
b. Event B = { RLS, RSL, LRS, LSR, SRL, SLR }
c. Event C = { RRL, RRS, RLR, RSE, LRR, SRR }
d. Event D = {RRL, RRS, RLR, RSE, LRR, SRR, LLR, LLS, LRL, LSL, RLL, SLL, SSR, SSL,
SRS, SLS, RSS, LSS}
e. Event D contains outcomes where all cars go the same direction, or they all go different
directions: D = { RRR, LLL, SSS, RLS, RSL, LRS, LSR, SRL, SLR }
Because Event D totally encloses Event C, the compound event C D = D. Therefore, C
D = { RRL, RRS, RLR, RSR, LRR, SRR, LLR, LLS, LRL, LSL, RLL, SLL, SSR, SSL, SRS,
SLS, RSS, LSS }
Using similar reasoning, we see that the compound event C D = C. Therefore, C D =
{ RRL, RRS, RLR, RSR, LRR, SRR }
57.

A college library has five copies of a certain text on reserve. Two copies (1 and 2) are first
printings, and the other three (3, 4, and 5) are second printings. A student examines these books in
random order, stopping only when a second printing has been selected. One possible outcome is
4, and another is 125.
a.
b.
c.
d.

List the S.
Let A denote the event that exactly one book must be examined. What outcomes are in A?
Let B be the event that book 4 is the one selected. What outcomes are in B?
Let C be the event that book 2 is not examined. What outcomes are in C?

ANSWER:
a.
Outcome Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b.
c.
d.

Outcome
123
124
125
213
214
215
13
14
15
23
24
25
3
4
5

Outcome numbers 13, 14, 15, so A={3, 4, 5}

Outcome numbers 2, 5, 8, 11, 14 so B={124, 214, 14, 24, 4}
Outcome numbers 7, 8, 9, 13, 14, 15 so C={13, 14, 15, 3, 4, 5}

27

CHAPTER TWO
58.

The Department of Statistics at a state university in California has just completed voting by secret
ballot for a department head. The ballot box contains four slips with votes for candidate A and
three slips with votes for candidate B. Suppose these slips are removed from the box one by one.
a.
b.

List all possible outcomes.

Suppose a running tally is kept as slips are removed. For what outcomes does A remain ahead
of B throughout the tally?

ANSWER:
a. S = {BBBAAAA, BBABAAA, BBAABAA, BBAAABA, BBAAAAB,
BABABAA, BABAABA, BABAAAB, BAABBAA, BAABABA,
BAAABBA, BAAABAB, BAAAABB, ABBBAAA, ABBABAA,
ABBAAAB, ABABBAA, ABABABA, ABABAAB, ABAABBA,
ABAAABB, AABBBAA, AABBABA, AABBAAB, AABABBA,
AABAABB, AAABBBA, AAABBAB, AAABABB, AAAABBB }
b. {AAAABBB, AAABABB, AAABBAB, AABAABB, AABABAB }

BABBAAA,
BAABAAB,
ABBAABA,
ABAABAB,
AABABAB,

Section 2.2
59.

A utility company offers a lifeline rate to any household whose electricity usage falls below 240
kWh during a particular month. Let A denote the event that a randomly selected household in a
certain community does not exceed the lifeline usage during January, and let B be the analogous
event for the month of July (A and B refer to the same household). Suppose P(A) = .8, P(B) = .7,
and P(A B) = .9. Compute the following:
a.
b.

P(A B).
The probability that the lifeline usage amount is exceeded in exactly one of the two months.
Describe this event in terms of A and B.

ANSWER:
a. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B), so P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = .8 + .7 - .9 = .6
b. P(A B) P(A B) = .9 - .6 = .3
The event of interest = (A B ) ( A B)
60.

A large company offers its employees two different health insurance plans and two different dental
insurance plans. Plan 1 of each type is relatively inexpensive, but restricts the choice of providers,
whereas plan 2 is more
expensive but more flexible. The accompanying table gives the
percentages of employees who have chosen the various plans:

Health Plan
1
2

Dental Plan
1
2
27%
14%
24%
35%

Suppose that an employee is randomly selected and both the health plan and dental plan chosen by
the selected employee are determined.
a.
b.
c.

28

What are the four simple events?

What is the probability that the selected employee has chosen the more restrictive plan of each
type?
What is the probability that the employee has chosen the more flexible dental plan?

Probability
ANSWER:
Let H1 and H2 represent the two health plans. Let D1 and D2 represent the two dental plans.
a.
b.
c.
61.

The simple events are {H1,D1}, {H1, D2}, {H2,D1}, {H2,D2}.

P({H1,D1}) = .27
P({D2}) = P({H1,D2}, {H2,D2}) = .14 + .35 = .49

Let A denote the event that the next item checked out at a college library is a math book, and let B
be the event that the next item checked out is a history book. Suppose that P(A) = .40 and P(B) = .
50.
a.
b.
c.
d.

Why is it not the case that P(A) + P(B) = 1?

Calculate P( A )
Calculate P(A B).
Calculate P( A B ).

ANSWER:
a. The probabilities do not add to 1 because there are other items besides math and history books
to be checked out from the library.
b. P( A ) = 1 P(A) = 1 - .40 = .60
c. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) = .40 + .50 = .90 (since A and B are mutually exclusive events)
d. P( A B ) = P[ ( A B ) ] (De Morgans law) = 1 P(A B) = 1 - .90 = .10
62.

An Economic Department at a state university with five faculty members-Anderson, Box, Cox,
Carter, and Davis-must select two of its members to serve on a program review committee.
Because the work will be time-consuming, no one is anxious to serve, so it is decided that the
representative will be selected by putting five slips of paper in a box, mixing them, and selecting
two.
a.
b.
c.

What is the probability that both Anderson and Box will be selected? (Hint: List the equally
likely outcomes.)
What is the probability that at least one of the two members whose name begins with C is
selected?
If the five faculty members have taught for 3, 6, 7, 10, and 14 years, respectively, at the
university, what is the probability that the two chosen representatives have at least 15 years
teaching experience at the university?

ANSWER:
Outcomes:
(A, B), (A, C1 ), (A, C 2 ), (A,D), (B,A), (B, C1 ), (B, C 2 ), (B,D), ( C1 ,A), ( C1 ,B), ( C1 ,C 2 ), (
C1 ,D), ( C 2 ,A), ( C 2 ,B), ( C 2 ,C1 ), ( C2 ,D), (D,A), (D,B), (D, C1 ), (D, C 2 )
a.
b.
c.

P[(A,B) or (B,A)] = 2 / 20 = .10

P(at least one C) = 14 / 20 = .70
P(at least 15 years) = 1 P(at most 14 years)
= 1 P[(3,6) or (6,3) or (3,7) or (7,3) or (3,10) or (10,3) or (6,7) or (7,6)]
= 1 8 / 20 = .60

29

CHAPTER TWO

Section 2.3
63.

Student Engineers Council at an Indiana college has one student representative from each of the
five engineering majors (civil, electrical, industrial, materials, and mechanical). In how many
ways can
a.
b.
c.

Both a council president and a vice president be selected?

A president, a vice president, and a secretary be selected?
Two members be selected for the Presidents Council?

ANSWER:
a. (5)(4) = 20 (5 choices for president, 4 remain for vice president)
b. (5)(4)(3) = 60
5
5!
10 (No ordering is implied in the choice)
c. =
2!3!
2
64.

A real estate agent is showing homes to a prospective buyer. There are ten homes in the desired
price range listed in the area. The buyer has time to visit only four of them.
a.
b.
c.

In how many ways could the four homes be chosen if the order of visiting is considered?
In how many ways could the four homes be chosen if the order is disregarded?
If four of the homes are new and six have previously been occupied and if the four homes to
visit are randomly chosen, what is the probability that all four are new? (The same answer
results regardless of whether order is considered.)

ANSWER:
a. (10)(9)(8)(7) = 5040
10
10!
210
b. =
4!6!
4

c.

65.

4

1
4
P(all 4 are new) = (# of ways of visiting all new)/(# of ways of visiting) =
=
10
210

4

An experimenter is studying the effects of temperature, pressure, and type of catalyst on yield
from a certain chemical reaction. Three different temperatures, four different pressures, and five
different catalysts are under consideration.
a.
b.

If any particular experimental run involves the use of a single temperature, pressure, and
catalyst, how many experimental runs are possible?
How many experimental runs are there that involve use of the lowest temperature and two
lowest pressures?

ANSWER:
a. n1 3, n 2 4, n 3 5, so n1 n 2 n 3 60 runs
b. n1 1, (just one temperature), n 2 2, n 3 5 implies that there are 10 such runs.

30

Probability
66.

A biology professor wishes to schedule an appointment with each of her eight teaching assistants,
four men and four women, to discuss her calculus course. Suppose all possible orderings of
appointments are equally likely to be selected.
a.
b.
c.

What is the probability that at least one female assistant is among the first three with whom
the professor meets?
What is the probability that after the first five appointments she has met with all female
assistants?
Suppose the professor has the same eight assistants the following semester and again
schedules appointments without regard to the ordering during the first semester. What is the
probability that the orderings of appointments are different?

ANSWER:
a. P(at least one F among 1st 3) = 1 P(no Fs among 1st 3)
4 3 2
24
1
1 .0714 .9286
=1 8 7 6
336
An alternative method to calculate P(no Fs among 1 st 3) would be to choose none of the
females and 3 of the 4 males, as follows:
4 4

4
0 3
.0714 obviously producing the same result.
=
8
56

3
4 4

4
4 1
st
.0714
b. P(all Fs among 1 5) =
=
8
56

5
c. P(orderings are different) = 1 P(orderings are the same for both semesters) = 1 (# orderings
such that the orders are the same each semester)/(total # of possible orderings for 2 semesters)
=1-

8 7 6 5 43 2 1
.99997520
(8 7 6 5 43 2 1)
(8
76 5 4 3 2 1)

Section 2.4
67.

A certain sports car comes equipped with either an automatic or a manual transmission, and the car
is available in one of four colors. Relevant probabilities for various combinations of transmission
type and color are given in the accompanying table.
Color
Transmission Type
A
M

White
.13
.15

Blue
.10
.07

Black
.11
.15

Red
.11
.18

Let A = (automatic transmission), B = {black}, and C = {white}.

31

CHAPTER TWO
a.
b.
c.

Calculate P(A), P(B), and P(A B).

Calculate both P(A|B) and P(B|A), and explain in context what each of these probabilities
represents.
Calculate and interpret P(A|C) and P(A/ C ).

ANSWER:
a. P(A) = .13 + .10 + .11 + .11 =.45,
P(B) = .11 + .15 = .26
P(A B) = .11
b.

P( A B ) .11

.4231
P( B)
.26
Knowing that the car is black, the probability that it has an automatic transmission is .4231.
P(A|B) =

P(B|A) =

P( A B ) .11

.2444
P ( A)
.45

Knowing that the car has an automatic transmission, the probability that it is black is .2444.
c.

P( A C ) .13

.4643
P (C )
.28
The probability that the car has automatic transmission, knowing that the car is white is .4643.
P(A|C) =

P( A C ) .32

.4444
P (C )
.72
Knowing that the car is not white, the probability that it has an automatic transmission is .
4444.
P ( A | C ) =

68.

Consider the following information: where A = {Visa Card}, B = {MasterCard}, P(A) = .5, P(B) =
.4, and P(A B) = .25. Calculate each of the following probabilities.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

P(B|A)
P( B |A)
P(A|B)
P( A |B)
Given that an individual is selected at random and that he or she has at least one card, what is
the probability that he or she has a Visa card?

ANSWER:

32

P( A B ) .25

.50
P ( A)
.50

a.

P(B|A) =

b.

P( B |A) =

c.

P(A|B) =

d.

P( A |B) =

e.

P(A|A B) =

P ( A B ) .25

.50
P ( A)
.50

P( A B ) .25

.6125
P( B)
.40
P ( A B ) .15

.3875
P( B)
.40
P[A (A B )] .50

.7692
P( A B)
.65

Probability
69.

A certain shop repairs both audio and video components. Let A denote the event that the next
component brought in for repair is an audio component, and let B be the event that the next
component is a compact disc player (so the event B is contained in A). Suppose that P(A) = .625
and P(B) = .05. What is P(B/A)?
ANSWER:
Since B is contained in A, A B = B, then P(B|A) =

70.

P( A B) P( B)
.05

.08
=
P( A)
P( A)
.625

At a certain gas station, 40% of the customers use regular unleaded gas ( A1 ), 35% use extra
unleaded gas ( A2 ), and 25% use premium unleaded gas ( A3 ). Of those customers using regular
gas, only 30% fill their tanks (event B). Of those customers using extra gas, 60% fill their tanks,
whereas of those using premium, 50% fill their tanks.
a.
b.
c.

What is the probability that the next customer will request extra unleaded gas and fill the
tank?
What is the probability that the next customer fills the tank?
If the next customer fills the tank, what is the probability that regular gas is requested? Extra
gas? Premium gas?

ANSWER:
P A1 .40, P A2 .35, P A3 .25
P B1/ A1 .30

P B1/ A2 .60
P B1/ A3 .50

Therefore,
P A1 B P A1 P B1A1 .40 .30 .12

P A2 B P A2 P B1A2 .35 .60 .21

P A3 B P A3 P B1A3 .25 .50 .125

a.
b.
c.

P ( A2 B ) = .21
P(B) = P ( A1 B ) + P ( A2 B ) +P ( A3 B ) = .12+.21+.125=.455
P ( A1 B ) .12

.264
P( P( A1 |B ) =
P( B)
.455
P ( A2 |B ) =

P( A2 B ) .21

.462
P( B)
.455

P ( A3 |B ) =

P ( A3 B ) .125

.275
P( B)
.455

33

CHAPTER TWO

Section 2.5
71.

An executive on a business trip must rent a car in each of two different cities. Let A denote the
event that the executive is offered a free upgrade in the first city and B represent the analogous
event for the second city. Suppose that P(A) = .3, P(B) = .4, and that A and B are independent
events.
a.
b.
c.

If the executive is not offered a free upgrade in the first city, what is the probability of not
getting a free upgrade in the second city? Explain your reasoning.
What is the probability that the executive is offered a free upgrade in at least one of the two
cities?
If the executive is offered a free upgrade in at least one of the two cities, what is the
probability that such an offer was made only in the first city?

ANSWER:
a. Because A and B are independent events, A and B are also independent. Then P( B | A ) =
P( B ) = 1 P(B) = 1 - .4 = .6
b. P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A) P(B) = .3 + .4 (.3)(.4) = .58.
.18
.3103
c. P[(A B ) | (A B)] =
.58
72.

Suppose that the proportions of blood phenotypes in a particular population are as follows:
A
.42

B
.10

AB
.04

O
.44

Assuming that the phenotypes of two randomly selected individuals are independent of one
another, what is the probability that both phenotypes are O? What is the probability that the
phenotypes of two randomly selected individuals match?
ANSWER:
Using subscripts to differentiate between the selected individuals,
P( O1 O2 ) = P( O1 ) P( O2 ) = (.44)(.44) = .1936
P(two individuals match) = P( A1 A2 ) + P( B1 B2 ) + P( AB1 AB2 ) + P( O1 O2 )
= . 422 .102 .04 2 .44 2 .3816
73.

Two pumps connected in parallel fail independently of one another on any given day. The
probability that only the older pump will fail is .15, and the probability that only the newer pump
will fail is .05. What is the probability that the pumping system will fail on any given day (which
happens if both pumps fail)?
ANSWER:
Let A1 = older pump fails, A2 = newer pump fails, and x = P( A1 A2 ). The P( A1 ) = .15 + x, P( A2
) = .05 + x, and x = P( A1 A2 ) = P( A1 ) P( A2 ) (.15 x)(.05 x). The resulting quadratic
equation, x 2 .80 x .0075 0, has roots x = .0095 and x = .7905. Hopefully the smaller root
is the actual probability of system failure.

34

Probability
74.

Seventy percent of all vehicles examined at a certain emissions inspection station pass the
inspection. Assuming that successive vehicles pass or fail independently of one another, calculate
the following probabilities.
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

P(all of the next three vehicles inspected pass)

P(at least one of the next three inspected fail)
P(exactly one of the next three inspected passes)
P(at most one of the next three vehicles inspected passes)
Given that at least one of the next three vehicles passes inspection, what is the probability that
all three pass?

ANSWER:
P(pass) = .70
a. P(three pass) = (.70)(.70)(.70) = .343
b. P(at least one fails) = 1 P(all pass) = 1 - .343 = .657
c. P(exactly one passes) = (.70)(.30)(.30) + (.30)(.70)(.30) + (.30)(.30)(.70) = .189
3
d. P (at most one passes) = P(0 passes) + P(one passes) = (.3) + .189 = .216
P(3 pass 1 pass)
P(3 pass)
.343

.353
e. P(3 pass | 1 or more pass) =
P( 1 pass)
P( 1 pass) .973

35