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The Conference Value

New Diagnostic Concepts for Better


Asset Management
November 7 and 8 - 2002
Become Consciously Competent Asset Managers
Gather increased Consciousness of new ideas and
successful industry practices
Take home increased knowledge and new
Competencies that benefit myself and my organization

UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

11/12/2002

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Where Does Your Organization Fit?

CONSCIOUSNESS
LEVEL

High

Consciously
Incompetent

Consciously
Competent

Weve got Problems, but


we know what they are!

Were Very Good,


and We Know Why!

Unconsciously
Incompetent

Unconsciously
Competent

Were in Big Trouble and


we dont have a clue!

Prior managers left us an


Unappreciated Legacy!

Low

High

COMPETENCE LEVEL
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The Need to Understand the


Probable Condition of
Operating Power Transformers

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Why is there a need?


Understanding the Probable Condition of an
asset provides an important frame-of-reference,
but understanding the potential IMPACT of an
assets condition fulfills a vital business need!

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What is driving the need ?

Todays electric T&D company has two fundamental business


objectives: Improved Customer Service
Improved Competitive Position
Utility engineers and managers must find ways to leverage the
most out of existing equipment, while system margins are at
their lowest level, without increasing the risk of forced outage
Utility customers have a very low tolerance for loss of service
Power transformers are a concern because each one often
feeds a single large customer, or large numbers of customers,
and replacement involves a considerable amount of time and
expense
Risk-cost is today recognized as a real cost of doing business

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Understanding Probable Condition


of Power Transformers
Four Main Reasons why;
Optimize Operation of Equipment
Prioritizing Maintenance Spending
Assess and Mitigate Risk
Condition-Based Capital Reinvestment

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Probability

Risk Probability vs. Impact

High

Blue

Yellow

Red

Medium

Green

Blue

Yellow

Low

Green

Green

Blue

Low

Medium

High

Impact
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Failure Probability and condition


are connected, but..
Deterioration is caused by the effects of normal age,
service, and infrequent but very stressful abnormal
faults
This cumulative deterioration eventually leads to
failure
Regardless of equipment type, failure increases as a
unit grows older

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Failure Rate and Failure Probability


Not the same thing
Most power transformers fail in their middle age years,
even though the probability of failure is still moderately
low, because the bulk of these units are in this age
group.
In comparison, the actual number of units that fail at very
old age is small, due to the number of units remaining in
that age group, even though the probability of failure for
units of that age is very high
The key to understanding failure probability first starts
with determining equipment age distribution.

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Example 1
Age Distribution for 1000 Unit System
With 1% Failure
Age Group
Years

110 1120 2130 3140 4150 51 60 61-70

Number of
Units

100

150

200

300

150

80

20

% of
Population

10%

15%

20%

30%

15%

8%

2%

Number
Failed in Year

% Failed in
Age Group

0%

0.6%

0.5%

1.0%

1.3%

2.5%

5%

Average Age is 30.7 Years


Average Age at Failures is 27.6 Years
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Example 1

350

6%

300
250

5%
4%

200

3%

150

2%

100
50

1%

Probability of
Failure

Units

Age Distribution and Failure Probability

Units
% Failure

0%
5

15

25

35

45

55

65

Years

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Example 2
Age Distribution for 1000 Unit System
With 1% Failure
Age Group
Years

110 1120 2130 3140 4150 51 60 61-70

Number of
Units

80

100

120

200

300

150

50

% of
Population

8%

10%

12%

20%

30%

15%

5%

Number
Failed in Year

% Failed in
Age Group

1.2%

0%

0.8%

1.0%

1.0%

1.3%

2%

Average Age is 36.9 Years


Average Age at Failures is 41 Years
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Example 2

350

6%

300
250

5%
4%

200

3%

150

2%

100
50

1%

Probability of
Failure

Units

Age Distribution and Failure Probability

Units
% Failure

0%
5

15

25

35

45

55

65

Years

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Example 3
Age Distribution for 1000 Unit System
With 1% Failure
Age Group
Years

110 1120 2130 3140 4150 51 60 61-70

Number of
Units

100

200

250

250

150

30

20

% of
Population

10%

20%

25%

25%

15%

3%

2%

Number
Failed in Year

% Failed in
Age Group

0%

0.5%

1.2%

0.8%

1.3%

3.3%

5%

Average Age is 28.2 Years


Average Age at Failures is 29.5 Years
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Example 3

300

6%

250

5%

200

4%

150

3%

100

2%

50

1%

0%
5

15

25

35

45

55

Probability of
Failure

Units

Age Distribution and Failure Probability

Units
% Failure

65

Years

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Willis on Failure
Even best condition-assessment methods
cannot predict exactly the expected remaining
lifetime, other than in extreme cases where the
units failure is imminent.
In many such cases, monitoring and testing
can usually determine the unit is about to fail.
H. Lee Willis, IEEE Fellow

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Condition Monitoring

Condition Assessement

detect fault

diagnosis

Is it
Normal?

Start

No
10%

Is it
Serious?

2%

No

Yes
90%

8%

Do
something
else

Do
Nothing
else
Broadband technique
applied routinely
UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

Yes

Focused technique
applied as required
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Probable Condition and Probable Failure


change with the ability to withstand stress
Time to failure can be predicted accurately only over
large populations
Past and present service conditions can be used to
narrow the expected uncertainty
Testing provides time to failure information only
when it reveals that a problem exists or failure is
imminent
The only way to assure accurate predictions of time to
failure is to periodically test units with increasing
frequency as they get older
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Failure Model
Transformer aging = Reduction of Spare margin
Defect or Fault = Reduction of Spare margin
fault occurs

failure with fault

Strength
failure without fault
Spare
margin

Aging
without fault
Aging
with fault

Stress
new

UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

AGE

11/12/2002

old
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Real-World Considerations
for Condition Evaluation
Most units are custom-designed to meet an individual utility
specification repetition is 1.4 units per design
Differences between local P.U.C. regulation and utility
investment practices have over the years resulted in major
differences in the normal loading policy between utilities
Deterioration of the insulation system is unit-specific, so
two units of the same design and chronological age can
have a totally different service age or residual life
expectancy.
No two operating environments are the same
Maintenance may be arbitrary and not always well
documented
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Condition Evaluation Methods


General; Condition evaluation can be applied to a
population of units by using statistical methods, based on
historical failure modes, but this cannot identify the
condition or vulnerability of individual units.
Specific; There is no single scientific method available
to determine the condition or end-of-life of an operating
power transformer. Experienced engineers, chemists
and technicians are required to conduct analysis, tests,
visual inspections and review of historical data to help
form the decision.

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TACTICAL

SPECIFIC
GENERAL

EVALUATION
APPROACH

STRATEGIC
FAMILY
and
FAILURE
MODES
DATA MINING

INDIVIDUAL
THERMAL
and
DESIGN
ANALYSIS

POPULATION
! COMMUNITY
FAILURE
FAILURE
RATE
MODES
and
! SIX SIGMA
AGE
TYPE
DISTRIBUTION
STATISTICAL
REFERENCE
DATA
DATA

REASONS
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SPECIALIZED
GENERALIZED

CAPABILITY

UTILITY

INSURANCE
COMPANY

ENGINEERING MANUFACTURER
SERVICES

TYPE OF APPROACH
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B AD
Y
ER H
V IG
H

IS

C O N D IT IO N

GOOD
LOW

H IG H

CRITICALITY (Transformer Priority -TPI)

Risk-Based Condition Ranking


more than Condition Evaluation
Condition (WCF) X Criticality (TPI) = Risk Perception
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Risk and Condition Ranking


The combination of an individual units
Weighted Condition Factor and its
Transformer Priority Index
Used to make decisions about the extent to
which the unit should be operated and
maintained.
Ranking may be used to establish risk
associated with loading older units

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TABLE 6
Weighted
Condition
Factor
(WCF)

Worst

Best

TRANSFORMER PRORITY INDEX


(TPI)
VITAL
1
2
3

CRITICAL
4 5
6

IMPORTANT
7 8 9 10

15

14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

Red

Yellow

Blue

Yellow
Green
Blue

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Quant it y of t rans form e r s w ith a give n


crit icalit y

Distribution of the transformers' park on 01/01/2000 according to criticality

15

10
10- 15
5- 10

0- 5

0
0,3

Ge ne ral Te chnical
Condition

14,8

13,2

12,2
12,4

10

10,8
11,6

7,8
8,4

8,5
9,2

Global St rate gic Im pact

7,5

6,4

6,9

5,8
6

4,8
5,4

4,2

3,7
3,4

2,6
3

-5

Fig. 2.3: Example of GSI and GTC for a population of 900 transformers
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Benchmarking Probable Condition or


Weighted Condition Factor
The process for benchmarking the probable condition of a
group or an individual unit, compared to other units on the
system, is often controlled by moving through three gates
or levels:
Level 1 Level 2
Level 3 -

Data and Design Analysis


Energized and De-Energized Testing
External and Internal Inspection

Condition evaluation method is analytical and subjective


based on quality and quantity of information, requiring the
results to be weighted depending on each of the factors
that have been selected.
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Possible Factors used in


Level 1 Condition Appraisal
Design - Manufacturer, Vintage, Winding Type, Materials, BIL, Short
Circuit, Oil Preservation, LTC, Bushings, Cooling Equipment

Operating Environment - System Impedance, Lightning Level,


Protection Scheme, Power Factor, Harmonics

Usage - Load and Overload History, Faults, Maintenance Practices


Historical Tests and Diagnostics - DGA, GOQ, Megger,
TTR, Furans, DP

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Practical Application of the


Three-Level Condition Appraisal Process
Strategic Programs
Macro Approach

Level
Three
Level
Two
Level
One

Limited
Criteria

Transformer
Communities
UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

Tactical Projects
Micro Approach
Internal
inspection

External
Inspection

Thermograph Utility
and External Preferred
range of
Inspection
testing

Limited
Criteria

Full Criteria

Transformer
Families
11/12/2002

Non-Critical
Units

Full Criteria

Vital and
Critical Units
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Will Condition Assessment Predict


Expected Lifetime or Failure ?
One hundred transformers judged to be in poor
condition will see far more failures in the next
twelve months that one hundred units that have
been assessed to be in very good condition.
Condition assessment is not a prediction of
expected lifetime. Instead, it can and should be
used to set priorities and general operating policy
H. Lee Willis, IEEE Fellow

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RANKING
Based on Strategic Importance
In most cases, knowing the probable condition for an
individual unit does not in itself provide the basis for
making good strategic, maintenance or loading
decisions.
It is important to compare the units probable condition
or Weighted Condition Factor versus the Strategic
Importance or Criticality for future use of the unit on the
system.
The individual units Transformer Priority Index can be
calculated by scoring its status versus the TPI criteria
chosen by the utility asset management team
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Transformer Priority Index-Factors Crucial for Future Use


Determined by the Utility Asset Management Team
Maintenance
Application (use)
Voltage Class
Size of Units
Type / Brand
Age / Vintage
Historical Problems
No Problems
Fault Levels
Ancillary Equipment
- Bushings
- Tap Changers
- Oil System
- Cooling System

Planning
Growth Areas
System Location
Capital budget
Spares / Risk
Load Limits
- High
- Low

Operations
Load Served
Contingency
Customer Contracts
System Impact
Risk

The above table provides lists of possible factors that are voted as most/least important by a cross-section of utility managers
and engineers.

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33

A Case for Real-World or


Condition-Based Loading Limits
Few utility planners today consider transformer
condition when setting transformers loading limits
Equipment Ranking is becoming a key element in
the utilitys overall O&M practices, and could offer
a practical method for setting upper loading limits
for individual transformers in the near future .

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DEFINING OPERATIONAL MODES


AND THERMAL LIMITS
The required Service Conditions of transformers will
normally fit into one or more of the following loading
categories:

Normal Life Expectancy Loading - Continuous Load


Normal Life Expectancy Loading - Cyclical Load
Long-Time Emergency Loading
Short-time Emergency Loading
Planned Loading Beyond Nameplate - Normal Operation

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Setting Policy Limits for Normal and


Contingent Operation
Typical Utility Loading Criteria and Thermal Limits
Normal Life
Expectancy

Planned
Loading Beyond
Nameplate

Long Term
Contingent

12 hour
Contingent

2 hour
Contingent

130C

140C

160C

180C

140C

150C

160C

180C

200C

Top Oil
Temperature

105C

110C

110C

110C

110C

Per Unit Load


Current

1.3pu

1.3pu 1.5pu

1.3 to
1.5pu

1.5

1.5

*.037%

*.037%

0.5 to
1.0%

1.0 to
2.0%

2.0 to 4.0%

Insulated
Conductor Hot
Temperature
Other Metallic
Hot Spot
Temperature
Limits

Loss Of
Insulation Life
Per Cycle

120C

*Based on 65,000 hour design life at constant load and ambient limits for 50% insulation tensile (not 200 DP).
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Setting Peak Thermal Limits


with thermal model Calculations

To establish peak loading limits, it is necessary to calculate


whichever limit occurs first, based on the seasonally adjusted
loading cycle and ambient temperature.
The temperature calculations should also include:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)

Top oil
Top duct oil
Bottom oil
Winding hot spot
Average oil rise
Average winding rise

UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

g)
h)
i)
j)
k)

Winding hot spot gradient


Average winding gradient
Bushing gradient
Cable gradient
Tap changer contact gradient

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Calculated Limits need also to include

Loss of insulation life in %


Bubble evolution probability
Regulation and voltage drop in %
Loading capability in peak output MVA and
per unit accounting for voltage regulation.
Current in amps accounting for voltage
regulation
Regulated and unregulated output voltage

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Optimized NOT Maximized Loading Limits


at the Peak of the Load
Calculated thermal loading limits are then
calculated for normal loading, planned loading
above nameplate, long-time emergency and
short-time emergency cases.
In addition to thermal loading limits, upper loading
limits should then consider the probable condition
of the transformer and its ability to withstand the
additional stresses at the limits

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39

Example Results for Ambient


and Daily Loading Cycles for 224 mva Unit
Peak of Cycle Operating Load Limits Based on Thermal Calculation
Operating
Mode
Ambient
Cycle
Load
Cycle
Max. Peak
Load MVA
Peak
Time Hr.
P.U. Peak
Rating
Hot Spot
Temperature
Top Oil
Temperature
Loss of Ins.
Life Per Cycle

Normal
Summer
S

Normal
Winter
W

Contingent
Summer
S

Contingent
Winter
W

252.0

314.7

272.1

349.4

16.00

08.00

17.00

08.00

1.125

1.405

1.215

1.560

119.8

120

130.2

139.4

101.6

94.2

109.6

109.5

0.023

0.018

0.037

0.050

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ADJUSTING UPPER LOADING LIMITS


BASED ON UNIT RANKING

Condition Ranking method can be applied to the


calculated upper limit by setting a margin or service
factor applied to the appropriate Red, Yellow or Blue
condition ranking of the unit

The magnitude of these margins, or reliability factors,


will depend on the utilities level of Risk Sensitivity

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Condition-Based Loading Capability


Margins Applied to Theoretical Peak Thermal Limits
Based on Condition Ranking Method
Group Blue units 0% margin on peak load limits
Group Yellow units 10% margin on peak load limits
Group Red units 20% margin on peak load limits

Load
Scale
MVA

Per Unit
of
Nameplate

350
325
300
275
250
225
200

1.55
1.44
1.33
1.22
1.11
1.00
0.88

Peak Operating Mode


Summer
Normal

(252 mva)
Blue
Yellow
Red

UNDERSTANDING "CONDITION" - DJW

Summer
Contingent

(272 mva)
Blue
Yellow
Red

11/12/2002

Winter
Normal

(314 mva)
Blue
Yellow
Red

Winter
Contingent
(349 mva)
Blue
Yellow
Red

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THE NEED FOR REAL-WORLD


CONDITON-BASED LOADING
It is unrealistic to assume that upper loading limits
for units in operation a long period of time, or
those having seen frequent faults, should be set at
the same level as those set for new units.
Optimum loading of transformers must involve
more than setting limits that are based solely on
winding or oil temperatures calculated at varying
load and ambient cycles.

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43

TAKE-AWAY
When you cant spend a whole lot of money on new
equipment, What can be done with an aging infrastructure ?
Condition Ranking and Periodic Equipment Evaluation,
resulting in Action-Oriented Jeopardy Lists, will improve
Asset Management Effectiveness and Cut Failure Impact.
Consider and evaluate on-line monitoring for units with
Condition Ranking Yellow and Red.
Load Equipment Differently depending on the situation.

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44