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THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED APPROACHES TO INSPECTION PLANNING
TITLE:-
AUTHOR:-
John L. Tischuk
Technical Director
Tischuk Enterprises (UK) Ltd
1 Bon Accord Square
Aberdeen.
SYNOPSIS
Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is a method for using risk as a basis for
managing an inspection programme. The concept of risk is used to target
inspection and maintenance resources at areas of the plant where they can
have the greatest effect in reducing risk, the occurrence and consequences of
unplanned failures and to reduce the cost of unproductive inspections. Risk is
a function of both the likelihood of a failure and the consequences of the
failure.
An RBI programme must include updating from results of inspections,
monitoring and process changes and will specify an inspection requirement
and frequency. The inspection requirement may be satisfied by a number of
alternative inspection methods.
Tischuk Enterprises (UK) Ltd has developed an integrated software system
based on the Tischuk Operational Criticality Assessment (OCA) system of
analysis. This is designed to assess risk in a simple and cost effective way
and is a fundamental part of the development, implementation and
management of risk based strategies. OCA uses a 3 x 3 risk matrix to
represent the different levels of risk.
Five cases are presented showing the economic benefits achieved through
application of RBI in five different types of facilities.
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THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED APPROACHES TO INSPECTION PLANNING
INTRODUCTION
Risk based inspection (RBI) and maintenance strategies use the concept of
risk to direct inspection and maintenance resources to the parts of the plant
where they may have the greatest effect in reducing risk. This results in more
efficient and cost effective inspection and maintenance programs. Depending
on the starting point, this may:
1. Reduce both risk and direct operating costs by eliminating
unproductive work.
2. Result in an increase in direct costs with a corresponding benefit of
reduced downtime by a reduction in the occurrence of and
consequences of unplanned failures.
During the last two years, Tischuk Enterprises (UK) Ltd has become a
recognised world leader in RBI technology. The company has developed an
integrated software system for implementation and management of RBI and
has acted as consultant for a number of international oil companies for
development of RBI standards and strategies. The company is a member of
an American Petroleum Institute (API) committee responsible for preparing
the new API RP 580 standard for Risk Based Inspection.
Once the initial RBI program has been developed, a feedback loop including
the following must be put into place to ensure continuous improvement:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Implement inspection
Assess inspection results
Authoritative Review.
Update OCA
Update inspection programme
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The probabilities of failure identifies failure modes that shall be used to select
appropriate inspection methods to be included in the examination of each
plant item.
The probability of failure models are clearly defined by a series of flow
diagrams giving visibility to the decision process used by the computer
models.
Failure modes for Pipework and Static Equipment:
1. Internal Corrosion
2. External Corrosion including Corrosion Under Insulation
3. Erosion
4. Cavitation
5. Creep
6. Mechanical and Thermal Fatigue
7. Stress Corrosion Cracking
8. Temperature Induced Embrittlement (hot and cold)
9. Wet Hydrogen Cracking
10. Hot Hydrogen Cracking
11. Process Fouling
6) Determination of OCA Risk Rating.
All inspectable items shall have an OCA Risk Rating or Criticality Rating
determined.
Table 1 - Derivation of Operational Criticality Ratings
Probability of Failure
High
Medium
Low
High
1
2
3
Consequence of Failure
Medium
2
3
4
Low
3
4
5
7) Authoritative Review.
One of the purposes of the Authoritative Review is to ensure that all data
having an impact on the Criticality Rating remains valid and that historical
inspection and maintenance data has been incorporated in the Probability of
Failure Ratings.
The Authoritative Review also serves to introduce new items into the
Assessment Register and to review the results of inspection and monitoring
activities. The purpose of the review is:
1. to identify any additions, changes or deletions to the Asset Register
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THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED APPROACHES TO INSPECTION PLANNING
2. to establish the actual condition of items and their fitness for purpose
3. to establish the observed deterioration mechanisms and rates
4. to establish the level of confidence in the predictability of the
deterioration rate.
Equipment should be subject to an Authoritative Review to assess its current
grade allocation and endorsement when:
1. any Inspection Report is being prepared
2. significant changes have taken place in the operating conditions
which could affect the rate of deterioration
3. following an abnormal incident which could have affected the
integrity of the equipment
4. 'On-stream' methods such as corrosion monitoring or measurements
of process stream composition have indicated that there has been
any significant change which may have affected the rate of
deterioration.
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Grade 2
Items which have :
a) at least one previous examination at grade 0
and b) a low rate of deterioration with a Remnant Life of > 8 years which
may be forecast from past data with confidence.
NOTE: Criticality 1 items may not be assessed as grade 2.
Grade 3
Items which have either:
a) at least one examination at grade 0 and one examination at either
grade 1 or 2
and b) a low rate of deterioration with a Remnant Life => Remnant Design
Life and which
may be forecast from past data with confidence
or
c) a negligible rate of deterioration in a stable service environment.
Items on grade 3 are to be subjected to an Authoritative Review at the half life
intervals, the purpose of which is to confirm that neither the operating nor
maintenance regimes have changed such that the rate of deterioration or its
predictability might have been adversely affected.
NOTE: Criticality 1 and 2 items may not be assessed as grade 3.
8) Inspection Plan Development.
The Tischuk OCA process offers three degrees of freedom in developing the
most appropriate inspection plan.
1. The Criticality, in combination with the Inspection Grade is used to
determine the major inspection intervals
2. The Consequence of Failure is used to derive the scope of
inspection
3. The Probability of Failure identifies the expected failure mechanism
and is used to select the most appropriate inspection or NDT
method
a) Determination of Inspection Intervals.
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Criticality
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
2
2
3
3
Inspection Grade
1
2
3
N/A
N/A
N/A
3
6
N/A
4
6
8
4
8
10
4
8
12
Medium Consequences of
Failure - General
Assessment
High Consequences of
Failure - Detailed
Assessment
Boroscope
or
External NDT
or
Process review
or
Internal entry
or
Process review and
External NDT
The scope of external visual inspection is divided into two levels, External
Visual and Limited External Visual. The purpose of external visual inspection
is to determine the condition of paint, insulation cladding, pipe supports, vents
and drains, etc. The general scope of external inspection should include
access to all areas of the Pipework or Static Equipment. Limited scope may
be conducted from ground level only.
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Mechanisms
Internal Corrosion
Erosion
Cavitation
Weld Corrosion
External Wall Thinning External Corrosion
Corrosion Under Insulation
Cracking
Fatigue
Stress Corrosion Cracking
Wet Hydrogen Cracking
Other
Creep
Hot Hydrogen Damage
High Temperature
Embrittlement
NDT Methods
Ultrasonic
Radiography
Visual Inspection
Radiography
Thermography
Ultrasonic
Radiography
Magnetic Particle
Liquid Penetrant
Ultrasonic
Radiography
Magnetic Particle
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BENEFITS
The application of RBI through the Tischuk OCA System provides the
following benefits:
x A better understanding of the probabilities and consequences of failure
leading to a more effective means of control and surveillance; improved
prediction of failures giving enhanced safety, availability, reliability and a
higher level of confidence in the plant condition.
x The application of the 80/20 rule, allows RBI principles to determine the
relatively few most critical items allowing significant increases in their
inspection intervals and a reduction in scope for many non-critical items.
x The change to non-intrusive, on-line methods of inspection instead of the
traditional off-line methods has resulted in shorter and possibly less
frequent shutdowns, reducing direct inspection related costs and
minimising lost production costs, with associated reduction in permanent
inspection manning.
x A structured assessment utilising generic and historical data and sound
engineering basis for the revision of the companies inspection philosophy,
providing a fully auditable process reflecting regulatory compliance.
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re-injected into the reservoir. When in production the platforms can deliver in
excess of 1500 million standard cubic feet of gas per day.
Changes in the gas industry have reduced the flexibility and minimised
windows for Inspection and maintenance.
As a result, the operator adopted a Risk Based approach for their Inspection
Regime by performing an Operational Criticality Assessment in 1995.
The planned Inspection workscope produced for the next 6 to 8 years utilises
non-intrusive methods of inspection and is systematically replacing the
previous shutdown policy based on the statutory requirements.
This leads to a reduction in shutdown days and thus value added to the cost
of operation.
The move to non-intrusive inspection methods has been possible due to the
relatively benign dry gas the field produces, and a high level of confidence in
the condition of the equipment and in the methods of inspection employed.
The inspection regime used will take advantage of any opportunity driven
shutdowns to augment the inspection techniques performed.
Results of a pilot Operational Criticality Assessment performed on the
condensate system, indicated that there would be annual savings in excess of
$ 90,000 from the inspection costs of the pressure systems, this being
achieved by the following:
x a reduction of 70% in the level of Ultrasonic Testing.
x an increase in the intervals of internal vessel Inspections, by an average of
20 months.
x reduction in shutdown days providing additional revenue of $ 225,000 per
annum.
It should be noted however, that the shutdown costs for 1997 have indicated
an increase of 15% this was due to optimising the vessel inspection
scheduling, smoothing out the programme over the next six years.
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CASE HISTORY 3
The third case history looks at a some process units from a large UK refinery,
where Risk Based Strategies, through the use of Operational Criticality
Assessment have been applied for the last 5 years.
The refinery employs a rolling four year internal vessel inspection programme.
By the application of Risk Based Inspection, the number of vessels requiring
internal examination has reduced in 90% of the plants considered.
Due to a recent extensive modification programme the hydro de-sulphuriser
plant contained more vessels requiring internal inspection The modifications
have reduced the vessel inspection grade allocation, and thus increases the
level of inspection required.
The refinery processes a 250,000 bbl of crude oil per day and has incurred
costs of $ 500,000 to implement their Risk Based Inspection Strategies which
has achieved the following:
x a 27% reduction in shutdown duration has been achieved, by reducing the
number of vessels requiring intrusive inspection.
x Equating to a net revenue gain of $ 4.5 million for each shutdown,
x A reduction in shutdown costs of $ 1.5 million.
CASE HISTORY 4
The fourth case history considers an operator with both new and mature North
Sea Oil and Gas Fields.
Both financial and non financial benefits are being realised, by applying Risk
Based Strategies to inspection and maintenance philosophies.
The non financial benefits recognised by the operator have demonstrated
commitment to the health and safety of the workforce, and commitment to the
governing regulations.
It is predicted that financial benefits will be realised in lifecycle inspection and
maintenance costs. Initially by reducing the number of internal vessel
inspections by 50%-60% and then by continuous improvement, through risk
based programmes, it is anticipated that the inspection programme will
improve, giving a further reduction in costs of 33.3%, as the frequency
between intervention periods is increased.
These figures are based on an average cost of $ 8,000 to shutdown, prepare
and inspect a vessel, and take no account of the additional value added by
lost production cost savings.
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The operator is currently achieving some of the financial benefits through the
implementation of their Risk Based strategies.
x A mature oil field producing 9 thousand barrels of oil per day has realised
savings of 25 % in pipeline inspection, and 41% in vessel inspection, giving
a total cost saving of $ 115,000 from 1997s inspection campaign.
x For new oil and gas fields producing 15 thousand barrels of condensate per
day, and 400 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, it is estimated that
there will be a reduction of $ 160,000 from 1997s Inspection costs, by
moving away from the previous statutory five year Inspection plan.
CASE HISTORY 5
The fifth case history considers a North Sea Oil field, producing 93 thousand
barrels of oil per day, and exporting 242 million standard cubic feet of gas per
day. The operator has adopted Risk Based Inspection strategies for its
corrosion and inspection management programmes.
A five year strategy plan has been developed, and through its implementation
it is expected that the operator will realise the following benefits.
x An estimated reduction of $ 1.6 million from 1997 inspection costs, over a
four year period, achievable by improving inspection efficiency and utilising
more appropriate methods of inspection.
x By utilising non-intrusive inspection there is an estimated reduction in
planned shutdown days for vessel inspections, from the current five days
per year to one day per year, leading to revenue gain of $ 2 million per
annum.
x An estimated reduction in unplanned failure costs, from the current $ 3.6
million per annum, to zero over a five year period, achievable if unpredicted failures are eliminated.
CASE HISTORY 6
The final case history considers a new onshore Gas treatment plant,
processing gas valuing
$ 8 million per day.
Risk Based Inspection strategies have been applied to produce a lifecycle
inspection schedule, for its 30 year design life which minimises production lost
through inspection.
By performing, as a first pass an Operational Criticality Assessment, then a
detailed HAZOP study on the high risk items, a non-intrusive inspection
schedule has been determined for the treatment plant.
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CONCLUSIONS
The application of Risk Based Inspection through the use of Operational
Criticality Assessment is proving to be economically viable, providing both
financial and non financial benefits for operators.
Risk Based Inspection strategies have been successful, in reviewing the
frequency of interventions and the use of applied inspection techniques, for
both planned maintenance and inspection.
The adoption of Risk Based Inspection programmes allows both new and
improved alternative methods of inspection to be applied where suitable. For
these strategies to be successful inspection methods available require
continual review leading to progressive development utilising the most
effective method of inspection.
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