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measures: France
Update
Topic
Stefan Scheurer
Vice President, Global
Capital Markets &
Thematic Research
basis points
200
basis points
200
indexed
250
indexed
250
180
150
160
200
200
150
150
100
100
140
100
120
100
50
80
60
2010
2011
2012
2013
40
50
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DAX 30 indexed
CAC 40 indexed
Understand. Act.
EBITDA: Earnings
Before Interest, Taxes,
Depreciation and
Amortisation.
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
indexed
150
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Spain
Germany
Italy
Ireland
Greece
90
Portugal
France
1970s
France
1980s
Germany
1990s
Italy
2000s
2010 11
Spain
Source: OECD, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research, Nov. 2012.
30 %
20 %
ce
an
Fr
UK
ed
en
Sw
ga
Po
rtu
De
nm
ar
iu
Be
lg
ro
Eu
Fin
nl
ar
an
ea
s
nd
Ita
ly
Ne
th
er
la
ain
Sp
bl
Re
pu
Cz
ec
h
Ire
lan
ic
10 %
Source: Eurostat, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research, Q2 2012.
6.5 %
2. Reducing government expenditure and/or lowering the tax liabilities of employees and companies.5
Source: International
Monetary Fund (IMF),
France: 2012 Article IV
Consultation Concluding Statement,
October 2012.
6.0 %
5.5 %
5.0 %
20
4.5 %
40
60
7.0 %
20
4.0 %
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Current Account Balance France
Share of France Exports to World Exports (RH)
3.5 %
% of GDP
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
% of GDP
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2013
Structural reforms appear necessary for several reasons. First, France might find it difficult to reduce its
budget deficit (which was revised upwards for 2012,
from 4.5% to 4.8% of GDP) to the Maastricht criterion of 3% in the coming years. The EU Commission
forecasts budget deficits of 3.9% and 4.2% of GDP
for 2013 and 2014, respectively. The Commission
therefore granted France a further two years to push
the deficit below the Maastricht limit of 3% of GDP.
Source: Carmen M.
Reinhart, Vincent R.
Reinhart, Kenneth S.
Rogoff: Debt Overhangs: Past and Present, April 2012.
In view of the deterioration in the long-term economic outlook for growth and the budget as well as
the continuing loss of competitiveness, the rating
agency Fitch also downgraded its triple-A rating
(best credit rating) for France in July 2013, following similar steps by Standard & Poors (S&P) and
Chart 7: France general government expenditure One of the highest within the Euro area
58 %
0%
1 %
56 %
2 %
3 %
54 %
4 %
52 %
5 %
6 %
50 %
7 %
48 %
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
8 %
Source: Datastream, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research, July 2013.
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan.
2014
Feb.
Mar.
2015
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Source: Bloomberg, Allianz Global Investors Capital Markets & Thematic Research, July 2013.
Although the structural reforms that the French government has recently undertaken are a step in the
right direction, further reforms will probably be necessary to guide the French economy out of recession
and onto a competitive path of growth.
Imprint
Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH
Bockenheimer Landstr. 4244
60323 Frankfurt am Main
Global Capital Markets & Thematic Research
Hans-Jrg Naumer (hjn), Dennis Nacken (dn),
Stefan Scheurer (st)
Data origin if not otherwise noted:
Thomson Financial Datastream.
Calendar date of data if not otherwise noted:
August 2013
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