Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
This Spreadsheet contains the Exhibits from the Mountain Man Case Study and an interactive forecasting model
which allows users to evaluate the effects of launching the MM Light Product.
Clicking on any of the Radio Buttons contained in the Scenario Option Box will Change the Assumptions to
reflect the scenario chosen.
Alternative scenarios can be evaluated by changing the yellow or orange assumption cells directly.
Changes made to orange cells will be overwritten when a Scenario option is reselected
Exhibit 1
Mountain Man 2005 Income Statement
Net Revenues
$50,440,000
$34,803,600
$15,636,400
$9,583,600
$1,412,320
$4,640,480
$151,320
$4,791,800
$1,677,130
$3,114,670
100.00%
69.00%
31.00%
19.00%
2.80%
9.20%
0.30%
9.50%
3.30%
6.20%
Exhibit 3
Competitive Market Shares in Barrels by Brewer
East Central Region
Anheuser-Busch
Miller
Coors
Other 2nd tier Premium & Popular Brewers
15,620,252
8,553,948
3,347,197
4,648,885
42.00%
23.00%
9.00%
12.50%
557,866
4,462,929
37,191,077
1.50%
12.00%
100%
Exhibit 4
Beer Consumption by State (2000 to 2005 Shipments in Barrels)
STATE
2000
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
MICHIGAN
OHIO
WEST VIRGINIA
WISCONSIN
EAST CENTRAL REGION
TOTAL U.S.
2001
Exhibit 5
Consumption by Type of Beer (2005)
Light Beer
Premium Beer
Popular
Imported Premium
Superpremium (craft and high-end domestics)
Total Barrels
Source: Extrapolated from Beverage Marketing Corp. Data
% Total
6-year CAGR
50.40%
4%
19.70%
-4%
11.70%
-5%
12.00%
6%
6.20%
9%
100.00%
% Total
12.00%
79.60%
8.40%
100.00%
2002
2003
2004
2005
9,038,323
9,165,381
9,268,188
9,108,157
9,032,851
9,063,267
3,954,209
3,947,446
4,021,685
3,905,265
3,993,643
3,998,855
2,517,894
2,486,731
2,564,013
2,490,928
2,591,949
2,555,739
6,761,561
6,695,665
6,854,064
6,774,702
6,746,578
6,700,174
8,493,144
8,601,604
8,682,331
8,760,272
8,702,382
8,584,283
1,274,626
1,311,838
1,360,589
1,348,527
1,373,205
1,359,231
4,741,019
4,784,791
4,890,122
4,855,313
4,877,662
4,929,529
36,780,776 36,993,456 37,640,992 37,243,163 37,318,269 37,191,077
197,609,645 200,146,800 202,605,792 202,586,016 204,318,220 203,515,149
Scenario
No MM Light
MM Light with 5% Loss of Revenue
MM Light with 20% Loss of Revenue
Source
$50,440,000
31.0%
-2.0%
18,744,303
4.0%
520,000
$66.93
$4.69
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 1
Case Fact Page 6
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 5
Case Fact Page 3
Case Fact Page 6
Case Fact Page 6
NO
0.00%
$0
$0
0.00%
0.00%
12.00%
3.00%
$50,440,000
520,000
$97.00
$66.93
$30.07
$4.69
$25.38
$50,440,000
$49,431,200
$15,323,672
0.00%
$0
0
$0
$900,000
35,461
Assuming a
-2.0% annual change
in MM Beer Sales Next Year
Change this cell to 0 to assume
no change in market size
35,461
Which Represents
% Share of E.C. Beer Consumption from Premium & Popular Brewers
% Share of E.C. Beer Consumption
% Share of E.C. Light Beer Consumption
% Share of 'Other Brand' E.C. Light Beer Consumption
0.76%
0.10%
0.19%
1.35%
$0
$0
$1,800,000
$25.38
70,922
0 Barrels
Which Represents
Average % Share of E.C. Beer Consumption from Premium & Popular Brewers
Average % Share of E.C. Beer Consumption
Average % Share of E.C. Light Beer Consumption
Average % Share of 'Other Brand' E.C. Light Beer Consumption
0.76%
0.10%
0.19%
1.35%
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Contribution
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
1.12
1.25
1.40
1.57
1.76
Present Value
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Discount Factor
$0
-2.0%
3.0%
Terminal Value of Contribution from Original MM Beer Business from year 6 onwards
NPV of Terminal Value of Contribution from Original MM Beer Business from year 6 onwards
NPV of MM Beer Business Overall assuming no MM Light Launch
98,938,470
56,140,345
109,454,800
Terminal Value of Net Change in Contribtion from Launch of New Beer (Year 6 onwards)
NPV of Terminal Value of Net Change in Contribtion from Launch of New Beer (Year 6 onwards)
NPV of Contribution to MM Beer Business Overall given Assumptions used here
0
0
109,454,800
Change in Company Value from Original Case which assumed no launch of MM Light