Coastal Futures 2014

London: 23 January

Ocean acidification update

"After much research effort, we now know a
lot more than when we started although it
is mostly knowing how little we now know"

Phil Williamson
Science Coordinator (NERC/UEA)
UK Ocean Acidification research programme

Scientific interest in
ocean acidification
began to 'take off'
around 5 years ago

240 papers
on OA

up to end of 2009
1624
citations

Scientific interest in
ocean acidification
began to 'take off'
around 5 years ago

240 papers
on OA

up to end of 2009
1624
citations

since then there has been a sixfold increase in OA publications

up to end of 2013
~1500 papers
on OA

ISI World of Science data (provisional for 2013)

33

~20,100
citations

Scientific interest in
ocean acidification
began to 'take off'
around 5 years ago
since then there has been a sixfold increase in OA publications
with a major UK contribution

First authorship of OA publications 2005-11

28 others 14%
New Zealand 2%
Sweden 2%
China 3%
France 4%

USA 32%

Canada 4%

Japan 4%

Germany 8%
Australia 11%

UK 14%

~1500 papers
on OA

ISI World of Science data (provisional for 2013)

33

~20,100
citations

Global CO2 emissions (Gt C pa)

The driver for ocean acidification:

increasing CO2 emissions due to human activities

Year

Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)

CO2 in atmosphere (ppm)

hence increased CO2 in the atmosphere

Hawaii (Mauna Loa)
South Pole

Peters
et (2013)
al (2012) WG
The challenge
to keepfor
global
warming below www.ipcc.ch
2C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
IPCC
I, Summary
Policymakers,

CO2 in upper ocean (atm)

CO2 in atmosphere (ppm)

and increased CO2 in the upper ocean

CO2 in Atlantic Ocean
CO2 in Pacific Ocean

Peters
et (2013)
al (2012) WG
The challenge
to keepfor
global
warming below www.ipcc.ch
2C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
IPCC
I, Summary
Policymakers,

CO2 in upper ocean (atm)

CO2 in atmosphere (ppm)

and decreased upper ocean pH (increased H+)

8.12
pH in Atlantic Ocean
pH in Pacific Ocean

8.09

pH

8.06

Peters
et (2013)
al (2012) WG
The challenge
to keepfor
global
warming below www.ipcc.ch
2C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
IPCC
I, Summary
Policymakers,

pH scale: logarithmic
0

9 10 11

12 13 14

basic

acidic

Stomach
acid

Coca cola

Surface
seawater

Coffee

Household
bleach

Distilled
water

0.3 decrease in pH = doubling of H+ concentration

(decrease is considered to be "acidification",

wherever on the scale it occurs)

pH scale: logarithmic
0

9 10 11

basic

acidic

Stomach
acid

Coca cola

Pre-industrial

pH scale for maps

12 13 14

Present day

Surface
seawater

pH scale: logarithmic
0

9 10 11

basic

acidic

Stomach
acid

12 13 14

Coca cola

Surface
seawater

Projected for 2100

under business as usual

Pre-industrial

pH scale for maps

Present day

Increased H+ is not the only change

involved in ocean acidification
increase

increase
increase
decrease

increase

increase

% change in global surface ocean

+200
+100
0
-100

Increased H+ is not the only change

involved in ocean acidification

H+
(acidity)

HCO3+
CO32 0

+100

+200

+300

% change in atmos. CO2

increase
decrease

Affects calcium
carbonate saturation
state (): when
< 1.0, unprotected
CaCO3 dissolves

increase

increase

% change in global surface ocean

+200
+100
0
-100

Increased H+ is not the only change

involved in ocean acidification

H+
(acidity)

HCO3+
CO32 0

+100

+200

+300

% change in atmos. CO2

increase
decrease

Other ocean
changes in a high CO2 world
include higher temperatures & less oxygen

Affects calcium
carbonate saturation
state (): when
< 1.0, unprotected
CaCO3 dissolves

Organisms (and ecosystem processes) may respond

to any one - or all - of these interacting variables

Overview of ocean acidification impacts #1

Impacts on
organisms

Indirect effects on:

Ecosystems
Ecosystem services

Community
processes

(positive &
negative)

Impacts on
chemistry

CO2
increase

Food web &

biodiversity
changes

Coastal
protection
Biogeochemical
processes

Climate
processes

People (costs & values)

Animals, plants & microbes

Direct effects of
CO2 and pH

Overview of ocean acidification impacts #2

Impacts on organisms
Reproduction,
behaviour and survival
Photosynthesis
Respiration, energetics
and growth
Calcification

C:N and C:P ratios

Indirect effects on:

Ecosystems
Ecosystem services
Community
processes
Changes
in assemblage

Food web and

biodiversity changes

or abundance of:
primary producers
secondary producers
decomposers
habitat-structuring
organisms

Decrease in abundance
of commercially-exploited
fish and shellfish

Decrease in food quality

Biogeochemical
processes

N2 fixation and
nitrification

Reduced biogenic CaCO3

production

Sulphur metabolism
(affecting DMSP & DMS)

Changes in dissolved
NOx and NH3

Impacts on chemistry

Change in dissolved
DMS

Reduced , shoaling
of saturation horizon

Increased CaCO3
dissolution

CO2
increase

Reduced resilience to
other environmentalpressures

Biodiversity loss due to

reductions in reef habitat

Coastal protection
Increased erosion due to
reductions in reef habitat

Climate processes
Reduced strength of
biological carbon pump
Change in N2O and
DMS release affecting
climate forcing

DMS, dimethylsulphide; DMSP, dimethylsulphoniopropionate; , CaCO3 saturation state.

Williamson & Turley (2011), after Tyrrell

People (costs & values)

Animals, plants & microbes

Direct effects of
CO2 and pH

Overview of ocean acidification impacts #3

(original version of this diagram)

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)

Long
term

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Multi-species
Ecosystem

MODELS

for scenario
projections

Multistressor

Days weeks
Local

OBSERVATIONS
Global

Months

Years

PALAEO

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)
Days weeks

Long
term

Months

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)

Multistressor

Other relevant variables

include temperature,
oxygen & food/nutrients:

Long
term

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)

Multistressor

Long
term

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Multi-species
Ecosystem

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)

Long
term

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Multi-species
Ecosystem

Multistressor

Days weeks

Months

Local

OBSERVATIONS
Global

real world

Years

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)

Long
term

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Multi-species
Ecosystem

Multistressor

Days weeks
Local

OBSERVATIONS
Global

Months

Years

PALAEO

Evolving framework for OA research

Short
term
Single
stressor
(OA)

Long
term

EXPERIMENTS
Single species

Multi-species
Ecosystem

MODELS

for scenario
projections

Multistressor

Days weeks
Local

OBSERVATIONS
Global

Months

Years

PALAEO

Physico-chemical variability
In coastal waters and shelf seas, pH
(and other carbon chemistry parameters)
can vary greatly on daily and seasonal basis
pH
O April
O May

O June
O July
O Aug

Time of day (hr)

Diurnal and seasonal pH variability

at Tatoosh Island WA, 2000-2007.
Wootton et al (2008)

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

O Sep

Physico-chemical variability
In coastal waters and shelf seas, pH
(and other carbon chemistry parameters)
can vary greatly on daily and seasonal basis also spatially
pH

pH
O April
O May

O June
O July
O Aug

Time of day (hr)

Diurnal and seasonal pH variability

at Tatoosh Island WA, 2000-2007.
Wootton et al (2008)

UKOA research cruise data 2011:

underway near-surface pH (Rerolle et al)

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

O Sep

Physico-chemical variability
In coastal waters and shelf seas, pH
(and other carbon chemistry parameters)
can vary greatly on daily and seasonal basis also spatially
This variability can now be simulated in high resolution models
Present day : sea surface

Blackford et al; Artioli et al (2012)

pH

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Daily pH range at seafloor

Physico-chemical variability
In coastal waters and shelf seas, pH
(and other carbon chemistry parameters)
can vary greatly on daily and seasonal basis also spatially
This variability can now be simulated in high resolution models,
that can be used in climate change scenarios
Change in pH by 2100 (IPCC A1B)
DpH

Artioli et al
(2013)

Artioli et al (2012)

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Aragonite
saturation at sea
floor by 2100
(IPCC A1B
scenario)

Palaeo- studies: global OA has happened before

E.g. at Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
Release Gt C per yr

25

At PETM onset, ~35% of benthic

foraminifera became extinct
Note: i) rate of OA change was
then 10 times slower than now;
ii) recovery time was ~10,000 yr

Projected
anthropogenic
release: 5000 Gt C

20
15
10

Estimated PETM
release: 3000 Gt C

5
0

Surface ocean

Species diversity
30 50

PETM

Anthropogenic

Foster et
al 2013

0
0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Years

Zeebe & Ridgwell, 2011

PETM

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Response change (log scale)

Metadata analysis based on single-species studies

+18%

0
-18%

increase
-33%

Growth

increase
Reproduction
Photosynthesis
increase

-45%

Calcification

decrease

-55%

Survival
-63%

Effect of 0.4 pH decrease; all taxa combined

Kroeker et al. 2010

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Metadata analysis based on single-species studies

Not tested or too few studies
Enhanced <25%

Kroeker et al. 2013

95% CI overlaps 0
Reduced <25%
Reduced >25%

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Metadata analysis based on single-species studies

Not tested or too few studies
Enhanced <25%

Kroeker et al. 2013

95% CI overlaps 0
Reduced <25%
Reduced >25%

Such
analyses need
to be carefully
interpreted!

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Intra-taxon variability in response to OA

Echinoderm studies
(sea urchins, brittle
stars and starfish)

Early life stages

embryos, larvae and
juveniles are much
more sensitive to OA
than adults

Multi-stressor studies show that interactions can be

additive/synergistic or antagonistic

Additive impacts of temperature and high

CO2 for cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa

Respiration
mol O2 g-1 tissue dry weight h-1

Control
3.5

1 stressor
3

2.5

2 stressors

1.5

1
9, 380

Temp: 9C
CO2 380
34

12, 380

12C
380

9. 750

9C
750

9, 1000

9C
1000

12, 750

12C
750 ppm

Preliminary data: Hennige & Murray

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Multi-stressor studies show that interactions can be

additive/synergistic or antagonistic
But multi-factor experiments are complex
(and food quality/quantity may be critical)
Additive impacts of temperature and high
CO2 for cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa

Respiration
mol O2 g-1 tissue dry weight h-1

Control
3.5

1 stressor
3

2.5

2 stressors

1.5

1
9, 380

Temp: 9C
CO2 380
35

12, 380

12C
380

9. 750

9C
750

9, 1000

9C
1000

12, 750

12C
750 ppm

Preliminary data: Hennige & Murray

Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Multi-species and ecosystem-scale experiments

Mesocosms and Free

Ocean CO2 Enrichment
(FOCE) studies: ecologically
more realistic, but high cost
for multi-factor replicates

Natural experiments at ecosystem-scale

High CO2 vents (in the Mediterranean, USA, Japan, and Papua New
Guinea) show dramatic biodiversity loss and community shifts,
favouring seagrasses and non-calcified algae
Photo: Jason Hall-Spencer

Impact of OA on ecosystem function

Ecosystem services and
socio-economics:
Loss of tropical coral reefs is likely
to be the greatest societal impact
of ocean acidification, with costs
estimated at ~ US $1,000 billion
per year (Brander 2012)

Impact of OA on ecosystem function

Ecosystem services and
socio-economics:
Loss of tropical coral reefs is likely
to be the greatest societal impact
of ocean acidification, with costs
estimated at ~ US $1,000 billion
per year (Brander 2012)
Costs of other OA impacts on
fisheries, aquaculture, food web
structure and climate regulation
are not yet well-defined

Observational requirements

Urgent need to develop global observing network for OA and

ecosystem response, linked to existing observing systems

UK work by Cefas,
Marine Scotland,
NOC, PML and
university research
groups

Coastal Futures 2014

London: 23 January

Main recent achievements

Importance of multiple stressors
Improved techniques
Awareness of biological variability
Awareness of chemical variability
Importance of scope for adaptation
Insights from palaeo- studies
Development of ecosystem-level studies
Phil Williamson
p.williamson@uea.ac.uk

with acknowledgements to UKOA researchers, funders & others