MiniCourse Lecture10 Early Warning Systems

Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro
Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Geografia

May 2013, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Landslide risk mini-course

(Lecture 10)
Landslide
early warning systems
Prof. Michele Calvello

University of Salerno (Italy) - Department of Civil Engineering
UNISDR (2009)
The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate

timely and meaningful warning information to enable
individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a

hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient
time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.
Landslide risk mini-course, May 2013, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - Prof. Michele Calvello (University of Salerno)
Early warning systems: a definition
UNISDR (2009). ISDR: Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm
UNISDR (2009)
A people-centred early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements
Knowledge of the risks

Monitoring, analysis and
forecasting of the hazards
Communication or dissemination
of alerts and warnings
Local capabilities to respond to
the warnings received
UNISDR (2006)
Early warning systems: a definition
UNISDR (2009). ISDR: Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm

UNISDR (2006). Developing Early Warning Systems: A Key Checklist. http://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/info-resources/ewc3/Checklist-english.pdf
Di Biagio and Kjekstad (2007)
Four main activities
Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities
Di Biagio &, Kjekstad (2007). EarlyWarning, Instrumentation and Monitoring Landslides.

2nd Regional Training Course - Asian Program for Regional Capacity Enhancementfor Landslide Impact Mitigation (RECLAIMPhase II)
Bell et al. (2009)

ILEWS project (Integrative Landslide Early Warning Systems)
Bell et al. (2009). Integrative Frhwarnsysteme fr Gravitative Massenbewegungen (ILEWS). Monitoring, Modellierung, Implementierung. Klartext Verlag, Essen.
[retreived from: Thiebes B. (2011). Landslide analysis and early warning - Local and regional case study in the Swabian Alb, Germany. PhD Thesis, Universitat Wien]
Intrieri et al. (2013)
Intrieri et al. (2013). Brief communication Landslide Early Warning System: toolbox and general concepts".
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13:8590. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-85-2013
Areal extent of system operation
Landslide early warning systems can be installed for

Single slopes
(LOCAL scale)
Intrieri et al. (2102)
Large areas, Regions, States

(REGIONAL scale)
Baum and Godt (2010)
The scale issue
Intrieri et al. (2102). Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system. Engineering Geology, 147148:124136.
Baum and Godt (2010). Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flow in the USA. Landslides, 7:259272.
Regional landslide early warning systems in Italy

Italy > National warning system for rainfall-induced landslides
Rossi et al. (2012). SANF: National warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Italy. Proc.
ISL-NASL 2012, Landslides and Engineered Slopes: Protecting Society through Improved
Understanding, Banff, Canada, 1895-1899.
Italy > Campania Region

BURC (2005). Decreto del Presidente della Giunta Regionale n. 299 del 30 giugno 2005:
Protezione Civile Il Sistema di Allertamento Regionale per il rischio idrogeologico e idraulico ai
fini di protezione civile. Ruoli e compiti delle strutture regionali di protezione civile nellambito
delle procedure di previsione e prevenzione del rischio idrogeologico per il territorio regionale
Landslide EW strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Case studies
System development
The Italian National Department for Civil Protection (DPC), an Office of
the Prime Minister, asked the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological
Hazard Assessment (IRPI), of the Italian National Research Council
(CNR), to design and implement an early-warning system to forecast
the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Italy.
System name = SANF

National Early Warning System for Rainfall Induced Landslides
SANF forecasts the possible occurrence of landslides by comparing:
rainfall measurements and forecasts
empirical rainfall thresholds
SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides
Source: Rossi et al. (2012)
System components
Rainfall measures
Network of
1950 rain gauges
Every six hours, rainfall
measurements from this network
are imported, validated, and
stored in the system.
Rainfall forecasts
Three-day quantitative
rainfall forecasts are
generated twice a day by
DPC using the Italian Local
Area Model (LAMI).
Rainfall thresholds
Intensity-Duration conditions
with landslide events
Five critical levels

probability of landslide occurrence
Level 1 well below threshold
Level 2 below threshold
Level 3 on the threshold
Level 4 above the threshold
Level 5 well above threshold
Rainfall threshold at 1% exceedance probability

Critical levels
Every 12 hours, for each rain gauge, critical levels for the available rainfall
measurements and rainfall forecasts are calculated.
Critical level for rainfall measurements
Critical level for

rainfall forecasts
Zones and delivery of alert
The National Department for Civil Protection (DPC) has divided

the Italian territory in: 129 alert zones.
Critical levels of rain gauges belonging to the same alert zone are aggregated
to define alert zone critical levels (every 12 hours). The system uses two
different aggregation criteria: the maximum and the modal values, respectively.
When the critical levels are determined, the system generates: synoptic-scale
maps of critical levels for the possible occurrence of rainfall induced landslides.
There should be a
From the conclusions of the article
Validation is a key part of the system, but is difficult to perform and the results
remain uncertain. Further validation of the rainfall thresholds, and of the system
algorithms is required.
The rainfall ID threshold currently used in the system was validated using a
reduced set of independent landslide information for a six-month period in the
Abruzzo region.
Activities for the collection of data on landslide spatial and temporal occurrence are
in progress. The data will allow for a better validation of the system forecasts. The
same data will also be used to define new regional and local empirical rainfall
thresholds for possible landslide occurrence.
Regional Civil Defense system > Campania region coordination center
Data gathering
Data analysis
Coordination
center
Information
activities
The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)
Source: BURC (2005)
Data gathering
Monitoring network (154 stations)
o 128 rainfall
o 54 river flow
o 56 temperature
o 13 humidity
o 5 air pressure
o 4 wind speed and direction
o 4 solar radiation
o 2 soil temperature
o 2 soil humidity
o 1 sea waves
Weather forecasts
The coordinator center emanates a daily
weather forecast for the next 3 days.
Example of weather bullettin
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
Combined use of gathered data
and weather forecast
Definition of weather alert zones
Definition of critical indicators
Classification of 6 risk classes for
the municipalities
Definition of hydrometer
indicators
Definition of rainfall indicators
The weather alert zones are defined

as areas with homogeneous
meteorological events
8 weather alert zones
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators
Two indicators of RAINFALL FORECAST

Local critical indicators (mm in 6, 12 and 24 hours)
only a part of the weather alert zone affected
Three critical levels >
ordinary
moderate
high
Areal critical indicators (mm in 24 hours)

the whole weather alert zone affected
Three critical levels >
ordinary
moderate
high
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators
The municipalities are classified in

6 risk classes, the first five defined on the
basis of the morphology of the territory
(i.e. area of river basins) and the last one
on the basis of the presence of areas
susceptible to rapid flowslide events.
Class 1
Area of river basins < 100 km2
Rainfall indicators
(mm in 1, 3 and 6 hours)
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators

Class 2
Area of river basins = 100-500 km2
Rainfall indicators
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators

Class 3
Rainfall indicators
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators

Class 4
Rainfall indicators
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators

Class 5
Area of river basins > 5000 km2
Rainfall indicators
(mm in 24 and 48 hours)
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators

Class 6
Susceptibility to rapid flowslides
Rainfall indicators
Source: BURC (2005)

Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators
Municipalities within classes 3, 4 and 5

Hydrometer level in rivers (cm)
Examples of hydrometer indicators thresholds
Two critical levels >
ordinary
extraordinary
Source: BURC (2005)
Data analysis
Decisional support
the municipalities
indicators
Three ALERT critical levels

Attention
Pre-Alarm
Alarm
Two indicators of MONITORED RAINFALL
Examples of thresholds for single rain gauge Municipalities within classes 1 and 6
ALERT critical levels >
attention
pre-alarm
alarm
Examples of thresholds for areal rainfall Municipalities within classes 2, 3, 4 and 5
ALERT critical levels >
attention
pre-alarm
alarm
Source: BURC (2005)
Examples of thresholds for single rain gauge:

Municipality of Sarno (class 1 and 6)
ATTENTION
Rain
gauge
CLASS 1
PRE-ALARM
CLASS 6
CLASS 1
ALARM
CLASS 6
CLASS 1
CLASS 6
24
48
72
24
48
72
24
48
72
(hours)
SARNO
35
42
58
68
74
46
56
78
90
99
38
55
67
92
108
117
(mm)
SARNO
(SIAP)
35
43
59
69
76
47
57
79
92
101
38
56
68
94
110
120
(mm)
Source: BURC (2005)
A two tier system

ALERTA-RIO
Officially created in 1996 by the GEO-RIO Foundation with the objective of issuing alert
bulletins, warning the populations for severe weather conditions which may induce flash floods
or landslides within areas of the city.
Operational 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with a staff of meteorologists, geologists,
engineers and technical-level personnel (only maintenance of the equipment is outsourced)
From 2010 it operates from the multipurpose Municipal Operations Center (CO-Rio)
A2C2 Sistema de Alerta e Alarme Comunitrio para Chuvas Fortes
Currently deployed in 103 informal communities (i.e. favelas) of the city
Based on few essential elements, some of which shared with ALERTA-RIO: risk zoning;
rainfall model and thresholds for early-warning; local and continuous measurement of rainfall;
timely rainfall prediction; apparatus for alert delivery (i.e. sirens); definition and
implementation of evacuation procedures; education and training of the population.
Not designed to be permanent, as the sirens are supposed to be uninstalled from communities
when, as it is planned, the risk will be lowered to acceptable levels either through stabilization
works or by the removal of dwellings (depending on results from cost-benefit analyses)
Landslide Early Warning strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Type and levels of alert
dOrsi et al. (1997)
RAINFALL ALERT
(CONDICAO DE CHUVAS)
based on rainfall forecasts
LANDSLIDE ALERT
(PROBABILIDADE DE ESCORREGAMENTO)
based on measured rainfall
dOrsi et al. (1997)
Landslide Early Warning strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) > ALERTA RIO
dOrsi et al. (2007). Rio-Watch: The Rio de Janeiro landslide watch system. 2nd Pan-Am Symp. Landslides, Rio de Janeiro, 1:21-30.
Pluviometers: location
Pluviometers: areas of influence

Zones of alert
Baia de Guanabara
Baia de
Sepetiba
Jacarepagu
Zona Sul
RAINFALL
Thresholds for levels of alert
ALERTA
LANDSLIDES
The alert procedure
ALERTA
ALERTA
Image: g1.globo.com
On the internet
http://www0.rio.rj.gov.br/alertario/
On the internet
Rainfall annual reports
On the internet
Landslide annual reports
Some preliminary analyses on

landslides and alerts
Year 2010
Datasets by:
GEO-RIO
Analyses by:
Luca Piciullo
(PhD student,
University of Salerno)
A recent example: 17 May 2013, 6 pm

Rainfall alert level in the four zones

Landslide alert level in the four zones

Landslide alert level in the four zones
Areas of influence
of pluviometers
Landslide risk zoning of Rio de Janeiros communities, i.e. favelas (Geo-Rio, 2010)
Levels of landslide risk
High
Medium
Low
117 communities
with houses inside

high landslide risk areas
A2C2 system installed

(between 2011 and 2012)
in 103 communities
Landslide Early Warning strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) > A2C2
166 alarm stations

86 sirens
with pluviometers
80 sirens
http://websirene.rio.rj.gov.br/portal/portal
The alert and alarm procedure
Alert
and Alarm
Rainfall
Threshold
1h
40 mm/h
24 h
125 mm/24h (> 6 mm/h)
96 h
200 mm/96h (> 40 mm/24h)
Source: Rio Prefeitura (2012). Plano de contingencia verao 2012/2103.

http://www.formulariosonline.com.br/sitedc/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=109&Itemid=65
Implementation of the system: information strategy

Simulations of evacuation
Posters and leaflets
Cartoons
Calendars
Source: Rio Prefeitura (2012). Plano de contingencia verao 2012/2103.
Implementation of the system: simulations of evacuation
Source: Rio Prefeitura (2012). Roteiro de implementacao do A2C2.
24 h threshold
the
alert
was
not
given
(in this
case).
On the internet
http://www.formulariosonline.com.br/sitedc/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=89&Itemid=61

MiniCourse Lecture10 Early Warning Systems

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

MiniCourse Lecture10 Early Warning Systems

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro

Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Geografia

Landslide risk mini-course

early warning systems

Prof. Michele Calvello

The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate

individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a

Early warning systems: a definition

UNISDR (2009). ISDR: Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm

A people-centred early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements

Knowledge of the risks

Early warning systems: a definition

UNISDR (2009). ISDR: Terminology. http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/lib-terminology-eng%20home.htm

Di Biagio and Kjekstad (2007)

Four main activities

Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities

Di Biagio &, Kjekstad (2007). EarlyWarning, Instrumentation and Monitoring Landslides.

Bell et al. (2009)

Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities

Intrieri et al. (2013)

Landslide early warning systems: elements and activities

Areal extent of system operation

Landslide early warning systems can be installed for

Intrieri et al. (2102)

Large areas, Regions, States

Baum and Godt (2010)

The scale issue

Regional landslide early warning systems in Italy

Italy > Campania Region

Landslide EW strategy in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

System name = SANF

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

Five critical levels

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall threshold at 1% exceedance probability

Critical level for

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

Zones and delivery of alert

The National Department for Civil Protection (DPC) has divided

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

From the conclusions of the article

SANF: Italian national warning system for rainfall-induced landslides

Source: Rossi et al. (2012)

Regional Civil Defense system > Campania region coordination center

The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Source: BURC (2005)

The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Source: BURC (2005)

The weather alert zones are defined

8 weather alert zones

The regional landslide EW system of the Campania region (Italy)

Source: BURC (2005)

Two indicators of RAINFALL FORECAST

Three critical levels >

Areal critical indicators (mm in 24 hours)