International Energy Outlook 2011

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator
September 19, 2011 | Washington, DC

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

www.eia.gov

Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case

World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and
2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India

Renewables are the worlds fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8%

per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in
2035
Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in
2035
Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through
2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as
sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel
switching where possible and modest use of liquid biofuels

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued)

Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in
projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows
by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas use in 2035 is 8 percent
higher than in last years outlook
Worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise 43 percent
between 2008 and 2035, reaching 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
History
500

2008

Projections
482

400
Non-OECD
300
260

288
OECD

244

200

100

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

China and India account for about half of the world increase in
energy use
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
History
400
Non-OECD Asia

Projections
Other Non-OECD

OECD

300

200

100

0
1990

2000

2008

2015

2025

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy

intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand
average annual change (2008-2035)
percent per year
7
6

Energy Intensity

GDP per capita

Population

4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2

-3
-4
U.S.

OECD
Europe

Japan

South
Korea

China

India

Brazil

Middle
East

Africa

Russia

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy

consumption
world energy consumption by fuel
quadrillion Btu
History
250

2008

Projections
Liquids
(including biofuels)

29%
27%

200
34%
150

Coal

23%
Share of
world total

28%
Natural gas

100

14%

23%

Renewables
(excluding biofuels)
10%

50

7%
Nuclear

5%
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Liquid fuels markets

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases
represent a wide range of prices
world oil price paths
real 2009 dollars per barrel
2009

History

Projections

225
High Oil Price case

200
175
150
125

Reference case

100
75
50

Low Oil Price case

25
0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the

total supply of liquid fuels
world liquids production
million barrels per day
2008

History

120

Projections

Unconventional

100

12%

5%
80

OPEC conventional

40%

41%

60

40
Non-OPEC conventional

55%

48%

20
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

10

Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

OPEC conventional production
million barrels per day
18

2008

2035

16
14
12
10

8
6
4
2
0
Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Iran

Other Middle
East OPEC

Africa

South America

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

11

Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from

Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan
Non-OPEC conventional production
million barrels per day
14

2008

2035

12
10
8

6
4
2
0
Russia

United States

Brazil

Kazakhstan

OECD Europe

Mexico

Canada

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

12

Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the

increase in unconventional liquid fuels
Unconventional production
million barrels per day
6

2008

2035

0
Oil sands/bitumen

Biofuels

Extra-heavy oil

Coal-to-liquids

Gas-to-liquids

Oil Shale

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

13

High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and
supply schedules relative to the Reference case
worldwide liquids consumption and production in 2035
million barrels per day

80

Reference case

High Price case

Low Price case

60
40
20
0
OECD

Non-OECD Asia Rest of World

Demand

OPEC
conventional

Non-OPEC Unconventional
conventional

Supply

Source: International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

14

Natural gas markets

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

15

Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural

gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case
world natural gas consumption
trillion cubic feet
History
120
OECD

Projections

Non-OECD
100

100
83
80
66
55 56

60

57

68
62

49
40

37 37

39

20

0
1990

2000

2008

2015

2025

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

16

The Middle East and non-OECD Asia account for the largest
increases in natural gas production
world natural gas production increment, 2008-2035
trillion cubic feet

Middle East

15

Non-OECD Asia

12

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

10

Africa

United States

Central and South America

Australia/New Zealand

Canada
Other OECD

3
-2

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

17

Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale

basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

18

Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the

48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed
Technically
Recoverable

Continent

(trillion cubic feet)

North America
Africa
Asia

Canada, Mexico

1,069

Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania,

Western Sahara, South Africa

1,042

China, India, Pakistan

1,404

Australia
Europe

South America

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

396
France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway,
Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Kaliningrad,
Ukraine, Turkey
Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,
Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay

624

1,225

19

Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of

supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada
natural gas production
trillion cubic feet
30

20
Unconventional
(tight gas, shale gas,
and coalbed methane)
10

Conventional
(all other gas)
0
2008
2035
China

2008
2035
Canada

2008

2035

United States

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

20

Electricity markets

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

21

Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still
fuels the largest share of the worlds electricity in 2035
world electricity generation by fuel
trillion kilowatthours
History

Projections

40

30

Coal

20

Natural gas
Nuclear

10

Hydropower
Other renewables
Liquids

1990

2000

2008

2015

2025

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

22

China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in

coal-fired generation
coal-fired generation
trillion kilowatthours
History

United States

China

Projections

Non-OECD Asia (excluding China)

Rest of world

0
1990

2000

2008

2015

2025

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

23

Energy-related carbon dioxide

emissions

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

24

Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase

in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
billion metric tons
History

25
OECD

Projections

Other Non-OECD

Non-OECD Asia

20
15
10
5
0

1990

2000

2008

2015

2025

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

25

Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide

emissions throughout the projection
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel
billion metric tons
History
2008

Projections

50

40

30
Coal

20
Liquids

10
Natural gas

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Howard Gruenspecht
CSIS, September 19, 2011

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