Indian Economic Development vs. Environmental Protection (April 2014 PF Topic)

GODWIN BRIEFS
APRIL 2014
PUBLIC FORUM BRIEF
Resolved: Prioritizing economic

development over environmental protection
is in the best interest of the people of India.
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 1
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Table of Contents
Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Affirmative Arguments ............................................................................................................................. 5
1. Poverty economic development reduces poverty. .......................................................................... 6
GDP Cure: GDP growth is the best antidote for poverty. ................................................................. 7
Chronic Poverty: Poverty becomes more costly and more difficult to escape over time, and must
therefore be prioritized. ..................................................................................................................... 8
Nutrition: Poverty harms nutrition, leading to severe health problems. ........................................... 9
Education and Health: Reducing poverty has significant educational and health benefits. ............ 10
General Poverty (Chart): A chart of what causes, maintains, and interrupts poverty in India. ....... 11
Income and Jobs: Increased income and jobs directly decreases poverty. ...................................... 12
Specific Solvency: Economic development solves poverty through infrastructure, public
investment, and credit availability. ................................................................................................. 13
Healthcare Access: There is a strong need for healthcare infrastructure to address poor healthcare
access. ............................................................................................................................................. 14
Healthcare Access: There is a strong need for healthcare infrastructure to address poor healthcare
access. ............................................................................................................................................. 15
Healthcare Access: Inequity to healthcare access is an enormous problem in India, contributing to
epidemics and infant mortality among the poor. ............................................................................. 16
Healthcare Solvency: Income growth, subsidies reform, poverty reduction, and infrastructure
development solve access problems. .............................................................................................. 17
Healthcare Solvency: Infrastructure and other aspects of economic development solve healthcare
access problems. ............................................................................................................................. 18
Healthcare Prioritization: Development of infrastructure to fix the access problem must be
prioritized. ....................................................................................................................................... 19
Blind Growth (Chart): Growing blindly in the same manner as always is not going to work, and
therefore real economic development is needed. ............................................................................ 20
Blind Growth: It is economic development, not economic growth, which is the topic of the debate;
development solves and avoids the harms of blind growth. ........................................................... 21
Blind Growth: Development is the key to all of these impacts. ...................................................... 23
Infrastructure: Infrastructure solves poverty. .................................................................................. 24
Education: Education solves poverty. ............................................................................................. 25
.................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Negative Arguments ............................................................................................................................... 27
1. Climate Change the threat of climate change forces India to focus on environmental protection.
............................................................................................................................................................ 28
Climate Change: India is disproportionately affected by climate change. ...................................... 29
Climate Change and Economics: India would benefit economically by prioritizing environmental
protection. ....................................................................................................................................... 30
General Climate Change: India will be severely impacted by climate change. .............................. 31
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 1
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 2
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Agriculture: Agriculture will be severely impacted by climate change. ......................................... 33
Water Security: Water security will be severely impacted by climate change. .............................. 34
Migration: Waves of migration to India will be occur as a result of climate change. .................... 35
Inequality: Inequality will devastate India because of climate change. .......................................... 36
Energy Security: Energy security will be severely impacted by climate change. ........................... 37
Malaria: Malaria epidemics will be made worse as a result of climate change. ............................. 38
Diarrhea: Diarrhea will be made worse in India as a result of climate change. .............................. 39
State Failure: India will struggle with state failure as a result of climate change. .......................... 41
Agriculture: Sorghum crop is extremely vulnerable to climate change. ......................................... 42
Water Security: Saltwater intrusions will increase as a result of climate change. .......................... 43
Energy Security: Energy security will be severely weakened due to climate change. ................... 44
Water Security and Glaciers: Loss of the Himalayan and Hindu Kush glaciers will reduce
available water resources. ............................................................................................................... 45
Mumbai: Mumbai is at particular risk for flooding. ....................................................................... 46
Kolkata: Kolkata is at particular risk for flooding. ......................................................................... 47
Agriculture: Rice/wheat production is vulnerable to climate change. ............................................ 48
Energy Security: Sufficient energy supply is a prerequisite to development, and it is threatened by
climate change. ............................................................................................................................... 50
Childhood Stunting: Childhood growth is negatively affected by malnutrition due to climate
change. ............................................................................................................................................ 51
Malaria: Malaria epidemics span larger areas as a result of climate change. ................................. 52
Salinity: Salinity intrusion into freshwater compounds health risks. .............................................. 53
Migration: Waves of migration will result from climate-change related flooding. ........................ 54
Water Wars: Shortages from climate change will lead to wars over water access. ........................ 55
2. Biodiversity destruction of biodiversity threatens extinction, directly threatening the lives of the
people of India. ................................................................................................................................... 56
Indian Biodiversity: India is one of the mega biodiversity centers of the world. ........................... 57
Himalayan Biodiversity: The Himalayan biodiversity is especially significant. ............................ 58
Biodiversity Destruction: Indian biodiversity will be destroyed by climate change. ..................... 59
Habitat Destruction: Habitat destruction causes large losses of biodiversity. ................................ 61
Himalayan Deforestation: Habitat destruction in the Himalayas causes large losses of biodiversity.
........................................................................................................................................................ 62
Marine Biodiversity: Marine biodiversity in coastal ecosystems is being ravaged. ....................... 63
Western India: Biodiversity in western India is being severely undermined by development. ...... 64
Civilization and Wealth: Biodiversity is the basis of human civilization and wealth. .................... 65
Species Collapse: Many species will be driven extinct by climate change. ................................... 66
Extinction: Humans are so dependent on biodiversity that its loss means extinction. .................... 67
Natural Capital: The cost of a loss of biodiversity is natural capital. ............................................. 68
Try or Die: Biodiversity loss is try-or-die, as we must deal with it now, or risk losing it forever.. 69
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 2
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 3
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Hotspots: Hotspots are the key to biodiversity. .............................................................................. 70
Hotspots: Hotspots are the key to life. ............................................................................................ 71
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 3
GODWIN BRIEFS
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 4
_____________________________________________________________________________________
APRIL 2014
PUBLIC FORUM BRIEF
Affirmative
Arguments
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 4
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 5
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Affirmative Arguments
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 5
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 6
_____________________________________________________________________________________
1. Poverty economic development reduces poverty.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 6
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 7
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GDP Cure: GDP growth is the best antidote for poverty.

Aiyar 2012
Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar is a research fellow at the Cato Institute with a special focus on India and Asia. His research interests include
economic change in developing countries, human rights and civil strife, political economy, energy, trade and industry. He is a prolific columnist
and TV commentator in India, well-known for a popular weekly column titled Swaminomics in the Times of India. He has been called Indias
leading economic journalist by Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution. He has been the editor of Indias two biggest financial dailies, The
Economic Times and Financial Express, and was also the India correspondent of The Economist for two decades. He has frequently been a
consultant to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Swami spends part of the year in India and part in the USA. He holds a Masters
degree in economics from Oxford University, UK.
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/rapid-gdp-growthbest-antidote-poverty
Rapid GDP growth is the best antidote for poverty. That is the big message that comes blaring out
of the poverty data for 2009-10.
Record GDP growth
of 8.5% per year between 2004-05 and 2009-10
has reduced poverty at a record rate of 1.5 percentage points per year,
double the 0.7 percentage points per year in the preceding 11 years.
There can be no better
refutation of the leftist myth that fast growth has benefited only a small rich coterie while bypassing the poor. Unfortunately, the good news has been drowned out by quasi-illiterate screams from politicians and sections of the media
that the data has been fudged. The allegation is false. The data has not been fudged, and should be cause for celebration. The government has adopted the Tendulkar Committees poverty line, which is close to the World Bank poverty
line of $1.25 in purchasing power parity terms. Critics howl that the Indian poverty line is unrealistic, but the World Bank poverty line has been accepted in global comparisons for decades. Chinas official poverty line after its 1978
reforms was two-third of the World Bank poverty line. Nobody called it a fudge or said it was impossible to live on so little. China estimated that it reduced the number of poor people from 250 million in 1978 to 29 million in 2001, a
reduction of 221 million over 21 years. This was widely lauded, and Indian leftists complained that Indias poverty reduction was glacial in comparison. Not any more. Based on the Tendulkar line,
reduced the number of poor by 52 million within five years.
India has
At this pace, India will in 21
years reduce the number of poor by 218 million , virtually matching Chinas performance of 221
million. Earlier,
thanks to slower GDP growth, the absolute number of poor in India fell very little on
a consistent basis. But once Indias GDP growth accelerated to 8% per year, matching Chinas growth between 1978 and 2001, India
reduced poverty as fast as China. Caveat: the poverty lines in India and China are not identical, so the comparison may not be exact. Still, the fact
remains that fast growth in both countries has been poverty-reducing. We can certainly criticise
India (as Amartya Sen and Jean Dreze did
achievesing less in most social indicators than not just China but even south Asian neighbours like Bangladesh.
Thanks to misdirected subsidies and a refusal to discipline corrupt, absentee staff,
recently) for
the Indian government has achieved less on the social side than Bangladesh, let alone China. Record GDP growth has produced record revenues
for the government to use in improving social sectors. Alas, it has funked all the fundamental reforms needed for improved service delivery, so
increased outlays do not produce correspondingly better outcomes. Indeed, economist Lant Pritchett calls India a flailing state.
In
police, tax collection, education, health, power, water supply in nearly

every routine service there is rampant absenteeism, indifference,
incompetence and corruption.
In many parts of India, in many sectors, the everyday actions of the field-level agents of the state policemen, engineers, teachers, health workers are increasingly beyond the control of the administration at the national or state
level. Nevertheless, this should not divert attention from the big picture: record GDP growth in India has produced record poverty reduction, just as it did in China. This message has got totally lost in the debate over statistical fudging, for two reasons. First, the Planning Commission last year gave the Supreme Court a poverty line estimate of roughly 32 a day. But the poverty data
released last week placed the poverty line at 28.62 a day. Many politicians and journalists including those of prestigious foreign newspapers jumped to the false conclusion that the government had revised the poverty line downward. Reading this torrent of criticism from my current perch in the US, I too was misled into thinking that the poverty line had been revised downward, and
repeated that error in my last Swaminomics column ( Poverty has truly fallen: its no statistical fudge, STOI, March 25, 2012). But the Planning Commission has clarified that the estimate of 32 a day given to the Supreme Court referred to 2011, whereas the 29.62 a day referred to 2009-10. The difference relates entirely to inflation there has been no downward revision of the poverty
line. However, the government has indeed made a separate downward revision of the poverty headcount ratio. Last year, Abhijit Sen and Montek Singh Ahluwalia of the Planning Commission said the 2009-10 NSS survey showed 32% of the population falling below the poverty line. This led to widespread moans that poverty was not falling fast enough despite record growth. Less
than a year later, the Planning Commission now says that the poverty ratio was actually 29.8%, implying a poverty decline much sharper than provisionally estimated last year. The revision has converted a modest performance into a stellar one. If the Planning Commission had simply waited for the final data and not misled the public with its provisional estimate last year, the final data
would have carried greater credibility, and the sceptical public would have been more willing to celebrate the performance as stellar. This mood will pass. Let us wait for the next survey data, for 2011-12. That will surely show a substantial further decline in poverty. Then we can really celebrate, with full conviction and no barbs about fudging.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 7
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 8
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Chronic Poverty: Poverty becomes more costly and more

difficult to escape over time, and must therefore be
prioritized.
Indian Institute of Public Administration 2011
The Indian Institute of Public Administration (IIPA) is a premier public policy school for public administration studies and one of the major
social science resources in India. IIPA has published over 400 books, monographs and reports. The Indian Journal of Public Administration
published since 1955 is an internationally known journal.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1765936
Chronic poverty describes people (individuals, households, social groups, geographical areas and territories) who are poor for
significant periods of their lives, who may pass their poverty on to their children and for whom
finding exit routes from poverty is difficult.
Large proportions of those who are poor in
India are stuck in poverty or are chronically poor. The
very size of
problem, combined with the fact that many of them will

remain poor over time, makes this the most important
issue facing the nation.
development
There are several reasons why chronic poverty must be addressed as a priority. First, the Indian Constitution gives all those who are poor (and
chronically poor) the right to benefit from growth and development. The unacceptably high levels of poverty and hunger that persist reflect a denial of this right. Second, it is likely that it will not be possible to meet national and
international goals and targets for the reduction of poverty and human development unless at least some of the chronically poor are included more in the process of development. What happens in India affects the extent to which the
world will meet its goals, since India contains such a substantial proportion of the worlds poor. Third, what works in India will be noticed and replicated elsewhere. Additionally, many of the chronically poor live in Indias
Social conflict may find easy recruits among the

chronically poor, who have less to lose by engaging in conflict and might be
mobilized by the politics of grievance. A few may even find better
opportunities in conflict situations, criminal behavior or illegal economic
activities. Security and law and order are a precondition for pro-poor development. Further, if the poverty of the poorest
persistently poor states states that are often perceived as poorly performing.
is not addressed, it may become more intractable and costly later.
Those left behind in a process of
development may resent this and may develop coping strategies that are negative for society as a whole. In addition, it may also take much more to lift them out of poverty, which may entail mortgaging future resources against present
neglect. Finally, and most importantly, there is a moral case to be made: the attention of Indias elite and middle classes needs to be drawn back to this issue.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 8
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 9
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Nutrition: Poverty harms nutrition, leading to severe health

problems.
Saith (2005) highlights a fundamental problem with using different procedures to estimate the food and non-food components of the PLB: While dietary requirements
are calculated on a scientific basis according to bodily needs, the non-food component of the poverty threshold is not calculated on a needs basis. Instead, the
procedure essentially identifies households whose expenditure on food exactly matches the cost of the food component in the poverty line basket, and then checks how
much such households actually spend on nonfood items. As such, there is no guarantee of meeting basic non-food needs. In 1973-74, the
share of food in
total expenditure of the poverty line class was 81% and 72% in rural and urban areas, respectively (Planning
Commission, 1979). This fell to is around 65% and 59% in 1999-00 (Sen, 2005): Thus, the reduction in the share of food is 16 per cent and 13 per
poverty line classes were to spend the

earlier fraction of their expenditure on food, they would yet fall short of the calorie norms, especially in rural
areas. Sen accepts the likelihood that the 1973-74 proportion of expenditure to meet minimum noncent as compared to the shortfalls in calorie intake of 25 per cent and 15 per cent. Therefore, even if the
food requirements (especially rent and health care) is not sufficient , thereby
leading to a decrease in the income left available for food . For example, serious concerns have been
expressed regarding state budgetary allocations to and provisioning of health care (NRHM, 2005).
Ill-health, and the need to
spend large amounts on health care, exacerbates the suffering of those who
are already poor and leads those who are non-poor into poverty.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 9
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 10
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Education and Health: Reducing poverty has significant

educational and health benefits.
Many households around the poverty line had been vulnerable to shocks and influenced by enablers in moving above and below the line. Their entry or exit from
poverty cannot be said to be relatively permanent. These are transient poor and vulnerable households, excluded from chronic poverty calculations.
Children seem to be most impacted by the economic movements of a

household. All households that had exited poverty showed an improvement in childrens access
to education without them having to contribute to family income; the reverse was true for
households that entered poverty.
Sanitation and access to health care are important
in entry, exit and persistence of poverty. Among households without access to sanitation
facilities, poor households formed a disproportionately large group.
poverty showed an increase in the score on migration.
A total of 59% of households that had exited
Linkages with the urban economy might be driving
the escape from poverty in rural India.
Other factors for exit from poverty are enablers (like access to credit, favorable
agro-climatic conditions, alternative asset base, etc.) and more secure livelihoods (in terms of reduced market risks or more days of work). Low literacy/educational
attainment is connected to persistence of poverty. A total of 89% of households that had remained poor showed no change in educational attainment status
(qualification of the most literate adult). Other factors for persistence are unsecure livelihoods and poor asset base of households. This indicates that self- and wage
employment programs will help chronically poor households. Shocks related to health and agro-climatic conditions are the most common reasons for entry into
poverty. Poor public health care delivery and inefficient implementation of women and child welfare programs are detrimental.
Being non-poor
is associated with multidimensional wellness. Each parameter contributed almost equally between 5% and 10% to
the total score. For poor households, the contributions of each of the parameters varied between 2% and 24%.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 10
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 11
_____________________________________________________________________________________
General Poverty (Chart): A chart of what causes, maintains,

and interrupts poverty in India.
Drivers
Maintainers
Interrupters
Health shock
Illiteracy/lack of skills
Diversification of income
Sudden disability
Disability/old age
Intensive farming/crop diversification
Large social expenditure
Social exclusion
Off-farm work/new job
High interest borrowing
Geography (remoteness)
Urban linkages
Investment failure
Drink/drug addiction
Improved rural infrastructure
Loss of productive assets
Poor health care facilities
Kinship networks
Macro policy change
Larger household size
Asset accumulation
Loss of job
Lack of job information
Marketable skills/linkages
Social and class conflict
Forced sale of assets
Information network on job opportunities
Indebtedness
Decrease in dependency
Bonded labor
Increase in wages
Governance failure
Access to credit
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 11
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 12
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Income and Jobs: Increased income and jobs directly

decreases poverty.
Reduction in poverty requires that the earnings of the poor increase. This could
occur through increased productivity, higher wages or transfers of income-generating assets or
incomes. If options for increasing income are either weak or absent, poverty will persist.
When there are opportunities for
improvements in earnings, through access to decent work or skills, combined

with higher wages, transfer of income-generating assets or improvement in
the productivity of owned assets, and if the increase in earnings is significant,
the poor may escape from poverty.
When shocks occur that lead to a decline in income levels, for instance crop failures, ill-health, disabling accidents or other
disasters, the number of people who are poor will increase. Poverty dynamics recognize the existence of processes through which the poor either escape from poverty or fail to escape it and the non-poor either remain non-poor or
An important pathway out of

poverty is the ability of income earners to move out of low-income occupations into those that yield
higher incomes. Alternatively, existing occupations must yield higher incomes. As Chapter 2 noted, in both rural and urban areas,
become poor. The drivers-maintainers-interrupters of poverty framework (Hulme et al., 2001) captures these processes related to poverty dynamics.
the main occupation of those who are landless and poor is wage labor. Has there been any reduction in the proportion of labor dependent on such occupations? Meanwhile, if real wages increase over time, this may raise the incomes
of landless wage earners. Is there evidence of these factors providing pathways out of poverty? We first examine the pattern of the structure of employment over time in the Indian economy and the prospects these changes provide for
poverty reduction. Tables 3.1a and 3.1b present the findings of a series of sample surveys, conducted over a 10- year period from 1989-90 to 1998-99, which show the occupational distribution of households in urban and rural areas,
respectively. The data show a rise in the number of wage earner households in both urban and rural areas during the 1990s. In urban areas, there was a rise in the proportion of wage-earning households (households whose chief
earner is a daily wage earner) from 18.37% of the total in 1989-90 to 20.87% in 1998-99 (Table 3.1a). The proportion of salary-earning households increased by less than 1 percentage point. New job opportunities during this period
were relatively greater in the lower-paying wage-earning job category. There was also an increase in the number of petty shopkeeper households. It is clear that the relatively less skilled and those without access to capital are forced to
find livelihoods at the bottom of the pyramid of occupations. Landless workers who migrate from rural to urban areas are also likely to find jobs as wage earners in urban areas.
Unless the
average earnings of wage dependent households increase significantly, they will

continue to be vulnerable to poverty.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 12
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 13
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Specific Solvency: Economic development solves poverty

through infrastructure, public investment, and credit
availability.
policy shift has been of less consequence for agricultural

not been so influential in regions with
insufficient infrastructure to carry forward the growth impact to reduce poverty. It has also been least helpful
for socially marginalized groups and in spatially remote areas. As such, it appears there may be a need to reorient established policies and programs
What is the inference of this pathology of poverty two decades after the economic reforms began? The
states and households, as well as for urban enterprises in the unorganized sector. It has
through grassroots social action and a challenge to established politics and social forces, to
prioritize three dimensions:
Diversification and the development
1.
of physical and
social infrastructure to raise agricultural productivity
2.
Public investment in less developed and remote areas where poverty

is concentrated ; 3. Fiscal reforms and a reduction in inessential expenditure
to enable greater
access to institutional credit
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 13
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 14
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Healthcare Access: There is a strong need for healthcare

infrastructure to address poor healthcare access.
High health care-related costs owing to the onset of a long illness can lead to
entry into poverty, and also worsen the situation of those already poor. Ill-health
creates immense stress, even among those who are financially secure. Most
households in India do not have medical insurance,

and sell invaluable assets and additionally borrow money to try and save family members who
suffer from serious illness.
The importance of publicly available, good quality
health care to enable greater access to health services cannot be

overestimated in preventing the non-poor from entering poverty or reducing
the suffering of those below the poverty line (Mehta, 2009). It is now generally accepted that Indias achievements
in the field of health leave much to be desired and the burden of disease among the Indian population remains high (Bajpai et al., 2009). The authors note that
illness and death from infectious diseases such as malaria and TB are reemerging as epidemics that can be prevented and/or treated cost effectively
with primary health care services under the government health system. However, the
extensive
public primary health care infrastructure is
inadequate and grossly underutilized owing to its dismal

quality
(ibid). Further, [] in most public health centers which provide primary
healthcare services, drugs and
equipments are missing or in short supply, there is shortage of staff and the system is characterized
by endemic absenteeism on the part of medical personnel due to lack of control and oversight. There
are wide disparities on health-related indicators, between rural and urban areas, between better and poorer performing states and between better-off and more
vulnerable sections of society. Health care centers in many villages are non-functional, ill-equipped and inadequately manned. The
rural system has

been described as wasteful and inefficient and delivering very low quality health services [] far
less than the guidelines laid down by the government (Bajpai et al., 2009). Health and health care access is also highly inequitable
(Duggal, 2009). Private health care facilities are used extensively in India (Desai et al., 2010). Kurian (2010) points out that the major weakness of
the system is the absence of an accessible basic doctor and the fact that 70%
of primary
health care is provided by unqualified practitioners in the private sector. Over

80% of health expenditure in India is private (ibid). Baru (2006) explains that the growth of private sector in provisioning of health care was facilitated by fiscal constraints
on government budgets, leading to cuts in public expenditure in the social sectors and increasing the space for private sector growth. Meanwhile, private sector growth has also been enabled through growth of the pharmaceutical and
medical equipment industries and their search for markets for their products. Using data for two districts for Andhra Pradesh, Baru (1993) found the number of private institutions at the secondary level of care was skewed in favor of
the developed districts rather than the poorer ones. Private secondary and tertiary levels of care were confined largely to urban areas and rural areas where there was agrarian prosperity.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 14
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 15
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Healthcare Access: There is a strong need for healthcare

infrastructure to address poor healthcare access.
High health care-related costs owing to the onset of a long illness can lead to
entry into poverty, and also worsen the situation of those already poor. Ill-health
creates immense stress, even among those who are financially secure. Most
households in India do not have medical insurance,

and sell invaluable assets and additionally borrow money to try and save family members who
suffer from serious illness.
The importance of publicly available, good quality
health care to enable greater access to health services cannot be

overestimated in preventing the non-poor from entering poverty or reducing
the suffering of those below the poverty line (Mehta, 2009). It is now generally accepted that Indias achievements
in the field of health leave much to be desired and the burden of disease among the Indian population remains high (Bajpai et al., 2009). The authors note that
illness and death from infectious diseases such as malaria and TB are reemerging as epidemics that can be prevented and/or treated cost effectively
with primary health care services under the government health system. However, the
extensive
public primary health care infrastructure is
inadequate and grossly underutilized owing to its dismal

quality
(ibid). Further, [] in most public health centers which provide
primary healthcare services, drugs and
equipments are missing or in short supply, there is shortage of staff and the system is characterized
by endemic absenteeism on the part of medical personnel due to lack of control and oversight. There
are wide disparities on health-related indicators, between rural and urban areas, between better and poorer performing states and between better-off and more
vulnerable sections of society. Health care centers in many villages are non-functional, ill-equipped and inadequately manned. The
rural system has

been described as wasteful and inefficient and delivering very low quality health services [] far
less than the guidelines laid down by the government (Bajpai et al., 2009). Health and health care access is also highly inequitable
(Duggal, 2009). Private health care facilities are used extensively in India (Desai et al., 2010). Kurian (2010) points out that the major weakness of
the system is the absence of an accessible basic doctor and the fact that 70%
of primary
health care is provided by unqualified practitioners in the private sector. Over

80% of health expenditure in India is private (ibid). Baru (2006) explains that the growth of private sector in provisioning of health care was facilitated by fiscal constraints
on government budgets, leading to cuts in public expenditure in the social sectors and increasing the space for private sector growth. Meanwhile, private sector growth has also been enabled through growth of the pharmaceutical and
medical equipment industries and their search for markets for their products. Using data for two districts for Andhra Pradesh, Baru (1993) found the number of private institutions at the secondary level of care was skewed in favor of
the developed districts rather than the poorer ones. Private secondary and tertiary levels of care were confined largely to urban areas and rural areas where there was agrarian prosperity.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 15
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 16
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Healthcare Access: Inequity to healthcare access is an

enormous problem in India, contributing to epidemics and
infant mortality among the poor.
Barajan, Selvaraj, and Subramanian 2011
The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is one of the world's oldest and best known general medical journals, and has
been described as one of the most prestigious medical journals in the world. Balarajan and Selvaraj are both from the Harvard School of Public
Health. Subramanian is from the Public Health Foundation of India in New Delhi.
http://www.sciencedirect.com.proxy.library.vcu.edu/science/article/pii/S0140673610618946
In India, individuals with the greatest need for health care have the greatest
diculty in accessing health services and are least likely to have their health
needs met.
3235 We conceptualize access as the ability to receive a specic number of services, of specied quality, subject to a specied constraint of inconvenience and cost,36 with use of selected health
services as a proxy for access. To show the persisting inequities in health care in India, we focus on access to maternal and child health services since the disease burden relating to communicable, maternal, and perinatal disorders can
Use of preventive services such as antenatal care and

immunizations remains suboptimum, with much variation in their use by gender, socioeconomic status, and location. In
be partly addressed by access to these services.
200506, national immunization coverage was 44%.10 Immunization coverage varies by household wealth and education, with absolute and relative inequalities
generally showing reduction with time (gure 4).10
Inequalities exist by caste
eg, in 200506, immunization coverage among scheduled tribes and scheduled
castes was 31.3% and 39.7%, respectively, compared with 53.8% among other castes,10 and absolute inequalities between these castes increased with time.1012 Coverage remains higher in urban areas (58%) than in rural areas
(39%),10 although absolute and relative urban-rural dierences have decreased with time.1012 The absolute gender gap has increased from 26% in 199293 to 38% in 200506.10,11 Similar patterns in inequalities have been noted
for antenatal care coverage (webappendix p 1). In 200506, 77% of Indian women received some form of antenatal care during their pregnancies in the 5 years before the survey, although only 52% had three or more visits.10 Overall,
coverage of antenatal care has improved with time.
Inequalities by wealth, education, and urban or rural
residence persist ,
,
however, even though absolute and relative inequalities have decreased with time. Dierences between states are substantial in both the number of antenatal visits and the type
of services provided during these visits. Inadequate access to appropriate maternal health services remains an important determinant of maternal mortality. Although the proportion of deliveries in institutions has increased with time,
Women in the richest quintile were six times more

likely to deliver in an institution than were those in the poorest quintile (webappendix p 2). Although this relative
dierence in inequality has decreased with time, the absolute dierence in the proportion of delivery in an institution
between the poorest and richest quintiles has increased from 65% in 199293 to 70% in 200506.10,11
only 387% of women in India report giving birth in a health facility for their most recent birth in 200506.10
Among scheduled tribes, delivery in an institution was 171% in 199899 and only 177% in 200506.11,12 Rates of admission to hospital also vary by gender, wealth, and urban or rural residence.37 Some of this variation might be
due to dierences in actual and perceived need and health-seeking behavior; indeed, evidence suggests that gender inequalities exist in untreated morbidity, and illness is probably under-reported among women.33 Although poor
individuals are more likely to seek care in the public sector than in the private sector, rich people use a greater share of public services, and are more likely to use tertiary care and hospital-based services.27 Rich individuals are also
more likely to be admitted to hospital than are poor people and have longer inpatient stays in hospitals in the public sector.38 Analysis of the 52nd round (199596) of the National Sample Survey39 of health services in the public
sector showed a more equitable distribution of services for preventive care (immunization and antenatal visits) than did most of those for curative care.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 16
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 17
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Healthcare Solvency: Income growth, subsidies reform,

poverty reduction, and infrastructure development solve
access problems.
Inequity in use of public health subsidies is clear, since only
10% of public health subsidies accrue to the poorest 20% of
the population, whereas over three times as much (31%) accrues to the richest 20% (Mahal, 2002).
This
could owe to problems such as distance from medical facilities and the
opportunity cost of accessing public health facilities in terms of forgone
incomes facing the rural poor if they seek health care.
Income growth,
infrastructure development that improves access to

hospital care and improved quality of health care and
accountability of providers would help improve the
allocation of subsidies
(ibid). Maharashtra, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu have the most
egalitarian distribution of public health subsidies. In contrast, in Bihar, Rajasthan, Orissa, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, between 37% and
those who need care are not seeking care

because they cannot afford it, and therefore may not be seeking care when they need it the most (Iyer
50% of health-related subsidies accrue to the richest 20% of the population (ibid). Noting that
and Sen, 2001), Baru (2006) argues that at the state level this calls for a rational use of available resources and also for a policy that will strengthen public
provisioning and regulate the private sector.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 17
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 18
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Healthcare Solvency: Infrastructure and other aspects of

economic development solve healthcare access problems.
Barajan, Selvaraj, and Subramanian 2011
The Lancet is a weekly peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is one of the world's oldest and best known general medical journals, and has
been described as one of the most prestigious medical journals in the world. Balarajan and Selvaraj are both from the Harvard School of Public
Health. Subramanian is from the Public Health Foundation of India in New Delhi.
Ecient allocation of resources between primary, secondary, and tertiary care, and geographical
regions is crucial to ensure the availability of appropriate and adequately resourced health services
.22
In India, this challenge is compounded by low public nancing with substantial variation between states.41 Indias total expenditure on health was estimated to be 413% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 200809, of which the public expenditure on health was estimated to be 110%.42 Private expenditures on health have remained high during the previous decade,43 with India
having one of the highest proportions of household out-of-pocket health expenditures in the world711% in 200405. Per person expenditures disbursed by the central government to states are fairly similar, irrespective of the dierent capabilities and health needs of the states.44 Expenditures on health dier by a factor of seven between the major stateseg, public expenditure per
person in 200405 was estimated to be INR93 in Bihar compared with INR630 in Himachal Pradesh.42 Besides interstate variations, a greater proportion of resources are given to urban-based services and curative services, with 292% of public expenditures (both central and state) allocated to urban allopathic services compared with 118% of public expenditures allocated to rural
allopathic services in 200405.42 This imbalance in allocation is worsened by a bias in the private sector towards curative services, which tend to be provided in wealthy urban areas. The curative services are mainly provided in the private sector, and evidence from national household surveys shows that the private sector in the previous two decades has become the main provider of
inpatient care.45
Physical access is a major barrier to preventive and curative health
services for Indias (>70%) rural population. The number of beds in

government hospitals in urban areas is more than twice that in rural areas, 46
and the rapid development of the private sector in urban areas has resulted in an unplanned and
unequal geographical distribution of services.47 Although the concentration of facilities in urban areas might encourage economies of
scale, the distribution of services is an important factor that aects equity in health care, mainly because
many vulnerable groups
tend to be clustered in areas where services are scarce. In 2008, an estimated 11 289 government
hospitals had 49 4 510 beds, with regional variation ranging from 533 people per bed in a government hospital in Arunachal Pradesh to 5494 in Jharkhand.46
Since distance to facilities is a key determinant for access, 48,49 outreach

programs or good transport, roads, and communication networks are
important to reach disadvantaged and physically isolated groups
, such as the scheduled tribes.
Distance remains a greater barrier for women than for men.50 Furthermore, physical access of services does not assure their use since the costs associated with seeking care also preclude uptake, even when services are available. India
needs sustainable, high-quality human resources for health with a variety of skills and who are adequately distributed in all states, particularly in rural areas.51 India has more than 1 million rural practitioners, many of whom are not
formally trained or licensed.52 Another challenge to assurance of equity in health care is that the most disadvantaged individuals are more likely to receive treatment from less qualied providers. Quality is dened by the use of
several criteria, such as safety, eectiveness, timeliness, and patient focus, and it can broadly be divided into service and clinical quality.22 In India, quality in health care is not well understood, with insucient evidence to infer how
it aects equity.53 Adequate regulation of the public and private sectors has been dicult to achieve. Despite the complex regulatory framework, with an extensive set of legal regulations, such as the Indian Penal Code, the Indian
Quality is aected by high rates of absenteeism among

health workers (>40% in some studies), restrictions in opening hours, insucient availability of
drugs and other supplies, poor-quality work environments, and inadequate provider training and
knowledge.38,51,5659 In urban centers, individuals who are poor are more likely to visit private crucial to ensure the availability of appropriate and
adequately resourced health services.22 In India, this challenge is compounded by low public nancing with substantial
variation between states.
Contract Act, and the Law of Torts, eective enforcement and implementation remain dicult.54,55
41 Indias total expenditure on health was estimated to be 413% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 200809, of which the public expenditure on health was estimated to be 110%.42 Private expenditures on health have remained high during the previous decade,43 with India having one
of the highest proportions of household out-of-pocket health expenditures in the world711% in 200405. Per person expenditures disbursed by the central government to states are fairly similar, irrespective of the dierent capabilities and health needs of the states.44 Expenditures on health di er by a factor of seven between the major stateseg, public expenditure per person in
200405 was estimated to be INR93 in Bihar compared with INR630 in Himachal Pradesh.42 Besides interstate variations, a greater proportion of resources are given to urban-based services and curative services, with 292% of public expenditures (both central and state) allocated to urban allopathic services compared with 118% of public expenditures allocated to rural allopathic
services in 200405.42 This imbalance in allocation is worsened by a bias in the private sector towards curative services, which tend to be provided in wealthy urban areas. The curative services are mainly provided in the private sector, and evidence from national household surveys shows that the private sector in the previous two decades has become the main provider of inpatient
The number of beds in government hospitals in urban

areas is more than twice that in rural areas
care.45 Physical access is a major barrier to preventive and curative health services for Indias (>70%) rural population.
,46 and the rapid development of the private sector in urban areas has resulted in an unplanned and unequal geographical distribution of services.47 Although the concentration of facilities in urban areas might encourage economies of scale, the distribution of
services is an important factor that aects equity in health care, mainly because many vulnerable groups tend to be clustered in areas where services are scarce. In 2008, an estimated 11 289 government hospitals had 49 4 510 beds, with regional variation ranging from 533 people per bed in a government hospital in Arunachal Pradesh to 5494 in Jharkhand.46 Since distance to facilities is a key determinant for access,48,49 outreach programs or good transport, roads, and communication networks are important to reach disadvantaged and physically isolated groups, such as the
scheduled tribes. Distance remains a greater barrier for women than for men.50 Furthermore, physical access of services does not assure their use since the costs associated with seeking care also preclude uptake, even when services are available. India needs sustainable, high-quality human resources for health with a variety of skills and who are adequately distributed in all states, particularly in rural areas.51 India has more than 1 million rural practitioners, many of whom are not formally trained or licensed.52 Another challenge to assurance of equity in health care is that the
most disadvantaged individuals are more likely to receive treatment from less qualied providers. Quality is dened by the use of several criteria, such as safety, eectiveness, timeliness, and patient focus, and it can broadly be divided into service and clinical quality.22 In India, quality in health care is not well understood, with insucient evidence to infer how it aects equity.53 Adequate regulation of the public and private sectors has been dicult to achieve. Despite the complex regulatory framework, with an extensive set of legal regulations, such as the Indian Penal Code,
the Indian Contract Act, and the Law of Torts, eective enforcement and implementation remain dicult.54,55 Quality is aected by high rates of absenteeism among health workers (>40% in some studies), restrictions in opening hours, insucient availability of drugs and other supplies, poor-quality work environments, and inadequate provider training and knowledge.38,51,5659 In urban centers, individuals who are poor are more likely to visit private and public providers who are not sufficiently competent.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 18
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 19
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Healthcare Prioritization: Development of infrastructure to

fix the access problem must be prioritized.
It is increasingly recognized that
poorer populations bear the brunt of health disadvantages
and are beleaguered with ill health whether it be their efforts for child
survival or anxieties pertaining to child nutrition (Joe et al., 2008). Examining spatial and temporal
dimensions of health outcomes, Agrawal (2010) finds that the impressive rate of growth of economic output is not accompanied by similar achievements in health; the
the majority of infant deaths are concentrated

the poorer states of the country. Sen et al. (2007) highlight the interplay of systematic hierarchies and systemic failures
rate of decline of IMR decelerated during the late 1990s. Further,
in
some of
in determining health outcomes for poor women. Using empirical evidence and insights based on data collected from 1,920 households in 60 villages in two subdistricts of Koppal, they find the
more insecure the households economic status, the greater the chance that
health-seeking will be rationed within the household, and this is borne disproportionately by girls
and women. Based on a survey of 5,759 individuals in 1,024 households in 100 hamlets in rural Udaipur in collaboration with Seva Mandir and Vidya
Bhavan, Banerjee et al. (2003) conclude that the quality of the public service is abysmal and unregulated
and private providers who are often unqualified provide the bulk of health care in the area. Households
in the sample were poor: average per capita household expenditure was Rs 470 per month and more than 40% were living in BPL households. The authors found that
51% of men and 56% of women were anemic. There was also evidence of respiratory difficulties. A
third of adults reported cold symptoms in the previous 30 days, 12% saying the condition was
serious; 33% fever; 42% body ache; 23% fatigue; 14% problems with vision; 42% headaches;
33% back aches; 23% upper abdominal pain; 11% chest pains; and 11% weight loss. Micro studies
frequently capture such high levels of morbidity far higher than those reported in NSS data.
Such morbidity and malnutrition
incidence, combined with high levels of poverty, calls for urgent and priority
commitment and allocation of substantial resources to the health sector. Instead, as
Srinivasan et al. (2007) show using data from three NFHS rounds, the
pace of interventions to address maternal and child
health has slowed, with a dampening of the full immunization program during 1998-99 to 2005-06. In view of high rates of malnutrition and infant
mortality, this is cause for serious concern.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 19
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 20
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Blind Growth (Chart): Growing blindly in the same manner

as always is not going to work, and therefore real economic
development is needed.
Promises
Higher growth in GDP and higher export
earnings
Contradictions
Poverty and market-related uncertainties and
displacement
Releases the constraints of capital investment
Underinvested areas of economy and society
Improved access to better technology

Higher prices (thereby income) in export
markets
Underemployment and unemployment

Inequitable sharing between capital and labor
Urban growth and reduced pressure on natural

resources
Urban congestion, pollution and lack of

amenities for the poor
Food security through intensive farming and

trade liberalization
Lack of sustainability of natural resource use;

price fluctuation and speculation
Increased employment with better earnings in

organized sector through labor market flexibility
Uncertain security under cyclical and other

fluctuations in global markets
Reduced poverty through increased expenditure

on safety nets and social protection measures
Access to means of production and employment

and institutional support for operationalization of social
safety nets yet to find a legitimate space in the economy
hence a political voice in national and international fora
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 20
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 21
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Blind Growth: It is economic development, not economic

growth, which is the topic of the debate; development solves
and avoids the harms of blind growth.
As we have seen, India
has experienced impressive growth over a sustained period of time, and yet a
number of development challenges remain, particularly in relation to the persistence of poverty in
the country. As such,
development discourse in India, like elsewhere, has started
moving away from a central focus on higher economic growth per se to

consider broader-based development that could also address the challenge of
reducing chronic poverty within a reasonable period of time. 2 The focus on growths
inclusiveness in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan is a testimony to the shift that has taken place recently in the countrys policy arena. Growing concerns about the current
pattern of growth as the core strategy for poverty reduction are a result of a
number of processes, socioeconomic and political, that

have dampened the prospects of prosperity and wellbeing of a large segment of the population.
These include
the inability of a significant proportion of the labor force to find
productive employment; the widening gap between the formal and informal
segments of the economy and across society; severe food inflation over an
extended period of time
; and massive disruption of the (natural) resource base that supports the livelihoods of the poor across the different agro-ecological regions. There is growing realization that the positive impacts of the upturn in growth may be less than its adverse impacts. Meanwhile,
recent global financial, food and climate-related crises have worsened the fate of the millions of chronically poor and of the common people. The wonderful story of economic growth is not quite a fairy tale. And everybody does not live happily after that. It is essential to recognize that economic growth in independent India was respectable during the first phase between 1950 and 1980,
and was impressive during 1980 and after. However, the growth was not transformed into development (Nayyar, 2008). Sustaining the pace of economic growth, and ensuring this growth can address the hitherto intractable challenges of underemployment and development-induced displacement, appears to be a tall order. The goal of attaining a sustained high rate of economic growth by
It has been amply argued that economic

growth in a globalizing world economy may still not be self-perpetuating, being driven by certain
structural factors that go beyond emerging global markets, competition and flow of capital.3 It is thus
continuing with the same set of reform policies has come under severe scrutiny from academia, civil society and those who have borne the brunt of the adverse impacts of economic progress in the country.
imperative to recognize that growth is important, as it is cumulative, but should not be reduced to simple arithmetic, as there is nothing automatic about it. At the same
time, much of poverty is structurally constructed, so analyses and understandings of the poverty phenomenon should not be treated as analogous to studying the
poor.4
More of the same type of growth is not likely to bring about a higher
rate of growth; even if it does, such growth is not necessarily going to hasten
poverty reduction and may in fact increase it in some parts of the country
for some time to come. Critics of the neoliberal growth paradigm have even questioned the empirical robustness of the link between trade
liberalization, growth and poverty reduction (Bardhan, 2007; Stiglitz, 2010). The issue arising in some developing economies with large populations is not that there is
poverty in spite of moderate to high economic growth, but that this poverty
is often created by the very nature of the economic
growth itself. It has also been recognized that more of the same type of growth is socially and politically untenable. It thus becomes all the more pertinent to
ask What kind of growth? For whom? and At what cost? rather than How much growth?5 On yet another plane, a number of parallel discourses are increasingly
climate change and ecological sustainability;

decentralized democracy and citizenship; gender equity; labor standards and
decent jobs; and global political institutions/ governance, including trade
propagating an agenda for an alternative approach, including
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 21
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 22
_____________________________________________________________________________________
regimes
.6 All these have given rise to not only a search for a new lifestyle but also new macro as well as institutional economics for growth and poverty reduction (Harris and Goodwin, 2010; Harriss, 2007), although
these tend to move in parallel rather than seeking convergence and integration within a holistic framework. The quest, therefore, has to be for an alternative approach to economic growth that deviates from mainstream assumptions,
which envisage self-sustaining growth through endogenous technological progress, with trade expansion and market competition as the major mechanisms to propel growth across countries.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 22
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 23
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Blind Growth: Development is the key to all of these

impacts.
Chronic
poverty is fundamentally economic in character insecure employment,
not enough of it, exploitatively low wages, low returns to limited assets and
vulnerability to asset and savings erosion in the face of shocks such as illhealth. Serious challenges in translating growth into development result from
an absence of employment opportunities; limited sustainability of natural
resources and access to food; and regional disparities.
As Chapter 7 argued, these are closely linked to and embedded in the structure of
growth itself. Employment elasticity of output is extremely low, both in aggregate terms and especially in agriculture. The global financial crisis and slowdown has demonstrated the shakiness of growth, leading to a loss of jobs, wage cuts and insecure livelihoods for workers in the small and
unorganized sector of the economy. The focus on output growth in India is based on intensive use and degradation of natural resources that are already in a fragile state, such as land, water, forests, minerals and marine resources, and also on increased pollution. The solution is to minimize the
environmental load of production in different sectors and also to compensate for the use of resources through conservation and regeneration, so as to preserve the stock of natural capital, which holds the key to future growth. This report makes a clear case for identifying and shifting to a
Reaching more of the poor means generating

more employment for those who can work; developing a more environmentally sustainable pattern
of growth, including meeting the climate change challenge; and a more careful and strategic
approach to integration with the global market, including a stronger domestic market orientation.
pattern of growth that reaches a larger proportion of the poor, including the chronically poor, even if this pattern involves a slightly lower rate of growth.
To achieve these ends, significant progress is needed in revitalizing

infrastructure (including health infrastructure), markets, institutions and
service delivery; and enhancing government investment (in addition to
allocating funds) in the poorest regions and states. As noted above, infrastructure is vital in connecting poor
people to labor and other markets, at both village and regional level. Markets, including labor markets, will function more effectively where infrastructure investment
is higher.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 23
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 24
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Infrastructure: Infrastructure solves poverty.

The factors known to promote escape from rural poverty infrastructure (especially at village level), urban proximity, acquiring extra land and education are all
highly affected by policy. The
role of rural infrastructure in poverty reduction cannot be overemphasized.
Better infrastructure promotes the shift from low-productivity casual labor

in agriculture to more productive casual work in the nonfarm sector. It is
also a key to higher wages and assists in improving literacy rates and school
attendance. Thus, the poverty reduction payoff to investment in rural
infrastructure in backward poor states is likely to be high .
Creating physical infrastructure at village level, for example to prevent
post-harvest spoilage losses and promote greater connectedness to urban areas, remains a clear priority. Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana and Pradhan Mantri Adarsh Gram Yojana in rural areas, and Jawaharlal Nehru National
Urban Renewal Mission for urban infrastructure and integrated development of slums, are initiatives in this direction that need closer evaluation and monitoring to make them relevant for the poor and for women.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 24
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 25
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Education: Education solves poverty.

The association between education levels and income poverty is strong.

Illiteracy and income poverty are correlated strongly, and education beyond
primary school is associated strongly with not being poor. Which way causation runs may be
debatable, but panel data evidence suggests having
a higher level of education is a ticket to
greater material prosperity.
Education is also a portable asset, and thus useful for migration. It is not subject to
erosion in the way that material assets or savings are, and is therefore more secure once acquired. However, the barriers to moving far enough through the system to
make a real difference to the long-term status of a poor household are significant. These mean the demand for education is suppressed unnaturally: demand
from the poorest households needs stimulating as much as supply and quality of education need
investment. Midday meal schemes, scholarships for disadvantaged groups and conditional cash transfers can all make a big difference. The priority in
education is nevertheless to improve the quality of basic education.
This will mean that fewer children remain
illiterate and that post-primary education does not have to compensate for
the failures of the primary level. The right to education should help in this direction, since it specifies basic qualities to which
education providers must adhere. Finding ways of helping the children of poor households to continue through post-primary education to complete the full nine years
of education allowed for in the Right to Education Act will be the next priority.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 25
GODWIN BRIEFS
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 26
_____________________________________________________________________________________
APRIL 2014
PUBLIC FORUM BRIEF
Negative
Arguments
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 26
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 27
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Negative Arguments
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 27
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 28
_____________________________________________________________________________________
1. Climate Change the threat of climate change forces India to

focus on environmental protection.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 28
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 29
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Climate Change: India is disproportionately affected by

climate change.
Mattoo and Subramanian 2013
The research department is the World Bank's principal research unitwithin the Development Economics Vice Presidency (DEC). Unlike
operations and network departments, which also undertake research, its mandate includes research that may be cross-country and across sectors,
and reach beyond specific regional units or sector boards. Our experts are often cited by the media, the academic community, and other parties
interested in international development. Our researchers also provides cross-support to Bank operations, to help ensure that the Bank's policy
advice is firmly grounded on current knowledge. With nine programs, it produces the majority of the Banks research and enjoys a high
international profile. The work of our researchers appear in academic journals, the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, books,
blogs, and special publications such as the Policy Research Reports.
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/05/13/000158349_20130513085415/Rendered/PDF/wps6440.pdf
Narrative matter. Not just for creating and sustaining nationhood, as Isaiah Berlin famously argued, but also, critically, in international
the key shift will have to come

from the DEEs, with China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia proactively leading the charge for action on climate
negotiations. In the climate change talks, the old narrative must give way to a new one. In our view,
change. But is this credible or plausible? We believe it is, for two reasons. First,
it is increasingly recognized that
the stakes in the near to medium term are much greater for the developing
countries than for todays rich countries. They are either in or much closer to the
tropics, where rising average temperatures will more quickly reduce agricultural productivity.
They have much higher population densities, and therefore much narrower margins for survival as
natural systems, especially water, come under stress. And they have much lower per capita
incomes, making it harder to cope with coming disruptions by making major infrastructure
investments such as building sea walls or extending irrigation systems. William R. Cline (2007) estimates the
costs for agriculture.
In the event of a 2.5 percent temperature increase Indias long-
term agricultural productivity will decline by about 38 percent, as compared

with a U.S. decline of 6 percent. Overall, India
and sub-Saharan Africa
will suffer losses of
as much as 4 to 5 percent of their GDP from a 2.5 percent temperature

increase, compared with less than 0.5 percent of GDP for the United States
and Japan.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 29
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 30
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Climate Change and Economics: India would benefit

economically by prioritizing environmental protection.
Mattoo and Subramanian 2013
The research department is the World Bank's principal research unitwithin the Development Economics Vice Presidency (DEC). Unlike
operations and network departments, which also undertake research, its mandate includes research that may be cross-country and across sectors,
and reach beyond specific regional units or sector boards. Our experts are often cited by the media, the academic community, and other parties
interested in international development. Our researchers also provides cross-support to Bank operations, to help ensure that the Bank's policy
advice is firmly grounded on current knowledge. With nine programs, it produces the majority of the Banks research and enjoys a high
international profile. The work of our researchers appear in academic journals, the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, books,
blogs, and special publications such as the Policy Research Reports.
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/05/13/000158349_20130513085415/Rendered/PDF/wps6440.pdf
More recently, William Nordhaus (2011) has calculated the social cost of carbon in terms of the change in long-run consumption due to an additional unit of
emissions. He estimates that this social cost is significantly greater for China, India, and other developing countries than it is for the United States or Europe. For
example,
the social cost of carbon for China is about three times that of the United States and nearly four times that of Europe. For India it is
about two times that of the United States and three times that of Europe.
for
China and
These greater costs
India result from these countries greater growth prospects, which
would be negatively affected by climate change, and their greater

vulnerability to damage from climate change.
Hamilton (2011) captures the relative
benefits and costs of mitigation for developing and industrial countries well. Using one of the
standard integrated assessment models (IAMs,) he finds that the mean benefit-cost ratio for developing
countries to do their efficient share of mitigation is 3.8, while this ratio if they finance all mitigation (including that in OECD
countries) is still 2.7. For OECD countries the mean benefit/cost ratio for financing all mitigation (including that in
developing countries) is
an unattractive 0.5. Setting ethics and politics aside, the stark bottom line is that
it is strongly in the
23
interest of developing countries to mitigate climate change -- much more so

than is the case for OECD countries. 15 Indeed, the alarming prospect for the DEEs is not that they will be asked to
contribute too much but that the rich countries might ask too little. The rich countries, reluctant to cut emissions, may opt to interpret inaction by the DEEs as
justification for attempting to adapt to climate change instead of taking aggressive actions to avert it. If the rich make this strategic choice, the consequence could be
catastrophic for all parties. As
the writer Simon Kuper put it, We in the West have recently made an
unspoken bet: were going to wing it, run the risk of climate catastrophe, and hope that it is mostly
faraway people in poor countries who will suffer.16 The large and vulnerable developing countries must go on a war footing to
campaign for action, including by todays rich countries, to avert catastrophic climate change.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 30
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 31
_____________________________________________________________________________________
General Climate Change: India will be severely impacted by

climate change.
National Intelligence Council 2009
The National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the
ICs center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy
communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence Community collaboration and
outreach. The NICs National Intelligence Officers drawn from government, academia, and the private sectorare the Intelligence
Communitys senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.
http://permanent.access.gpo.gov/lps122081/LPS122081.pdf
India is both a major greenhouse gas emitter and one of the most vulnerable countries in the world
to projected climate change.
The country is already experiencing changes in climate
and the impacts of climate change, including water stress, heat waves and
drought, severe storms and flooding, and associated negative consequences
on health and livelihoods.
With a 1.2 billion but growing population and dependence on
agriculture, India probably will be severely impacted by continuing climate change. Global climate
projections, given inherent uncertainties, indicate several changes in Indias future climate: Global observations of melting glaciers
suggest that climate change is well under way in the region, with glaciers receding at an average
rate of 1015 meters per year. If the rate increases,
flooding is likely in river valleys fed
by these glaciers, followed by diminished flows, resulting in water scarcity for

drinking and irrigation.
All models show a trend of general warming in mean annual
temperature as well as decreased range of diurnal temperature and enhanced precipitation over the
Indian subcontinent. A warming of 0.5o C is likely over all India by the year 2030 (approximately equal to the
o
warming over the 20th century) and a warming of 2-4 C by the end of this century, with the maximum increase
over northern India.
Increased warming is likely to lead to higher levels of
tropospheric ozone pollution and other air pollution in the major cities.
Increased precipitation including monsoonal rains is likely to come in the form of fewer
rainy days but more days of extreme rainfall events, with increasing amounts
of rain in each event, leading to significant flooding. Drizzle-type
precipitation that replenishes soil moisture is likely to decrease. Most global
models suggest that the Indian summer monsoons will intensify. The timing may also shift, causing a drying during the
late summer growing season. Climate models also predict an earlier
snowmelt, which could have a significant adverse effect on agricultural
production.
Growing emissions of aerosols from energy production and other sources may
suppress rainfall, leading to drier conditions with more dust and smoke from the burning of drier
vegetation, affecting both regional and global hydrological cycles and agricultural production.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 31
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 32
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Uncertainties about monsoonal changes will affect farmers choices about

which crops to plant and the timing of planting, reducing productivities.
In
addition, earlier seasonal snowmelt and depleting glaciers will reduce river flow needed for
irrigation.
The large segment of poor people (including smallholder farmers and landless agricultural workers)
may be hardest hit, requiring government relief programs on a massive scale.

Finally, migration, especially from Bangladesh, may strain resources and India-Bangladesh
relations.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 32
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 33
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Agriculture: Agriculture will be severely impacted by

climate change.
High-input, high-output agriculture will be negatively affected even as demands for food and other
agricultural products rise because of an increasing population and expectations for an improved
standard of living. Millions of subsistence and smallholder farmers will experience hardship and
hunger through being less able to predict climate conditions. To a certain extent, trade may compensate for these deficits.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 33
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 34
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Water Security: Water security will be severely impacted by

climate change.
Glacier melt may yield more runoff in the short term but less in the medium and long terms.
More severe storms
(especially cyclones)
will cause more damage to infrastructure and livelihoods and exacerbate salt
water intrusion in storm surges. Changes in the timing and amount of
monsoon rains will make the production of food and other agricultural
products more uncertain, so that, even in good-weather years, farmers will be
more likely to make decisions leading to lower-productivity.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 34
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 35
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Migration: Waves of migration to India will be occur as a

result of climate change.
India receives immigrants from a number of countries. Under
climate change conditions,

it may be flooded with many more, particularly from Bangladesh. Such migration may
exacerbate tension between the two countries as well as putting a strain on Indian central and state governments. Adaptive capacity in India varies
by state, geographical region, and socioeconomic status. Studies
point to influential factors such as water availability,

food security, human and social capital, and the ability of government (state and national levels) to buffer
its people during tough times.
Where adaptive capacity is low, the potential is
greater for impacts to result in displaced people; deaths and damage from
heat, floods, and storms; and conflicts over natural resources and assets.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 35
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 36
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Inequality: Inequality will devastate India because of climate

change.
The welfare of those who are affected by climate change and who have limited means to adapt may
act as a force that can change governments, strain public budgets, and foster unrest. About onethird of Indians are extremely poor, and 60 percent depend upon agriculture for their livelihoods.
In a country so prone to natural hazards, the welfare of those who are affected and who have limited means to recover will loom large under climate change, as a force
that can change governments, strain public budgets, and foster unrest. The proportions are significant: about
a quarter of the population lives

on less than $1 a day; at least one-third face poverty, discrimination (often scheduled castes or tribes and Muslims),
and lack of educational opportunities; and 60 percent are dependent upon agriculture for their
livelihoods.
Those who lack financial resources and adequate education and
who depend on agriculture for sustenance and livelihood will be

disadvantaged under climate change because they have few choices but
continued dependence on shrinking or uncertain resources. India is attempting to reduce
inequality by using quotas in government jobs and educational institutions; the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (2005) also guarantees that at least one
member of a rural household will have 200 days of work per year; and Indias 11th five-year plan adopts the policy of sectoral, spatial, and socioeconomic growth that
includes all people.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 36
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 37
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Energy Security: Energy security will be severely impacted

by climate change.
As India searches for additional sources of energy to meet rising demand,
climate change
mitigation efforts may constrain its use of indigenous and imported coal, oil,
and gas, while development of nuclear energy will be slow at best and likely
to encounter opposition.
Other non-emitting technologies will require technology transfer
and capacity-building.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 37
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 38
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Malaria: Malaria epidemics will be made worse as a result of

climate change.
Currently, Indias public health care system produces relatively poor health outcomes. For India, Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE), which includes adjustment for
time spent in poor health, is 53 years for children born in 2003. Despite perceived strengths of the national-level public health system (good expertise, written
guidelines and standards, and network of research and training institutions), implementation and monitoring of services are weak. Funding for control of
communicable diseases has been deemphasized since the 1980s; several infectious diseases, such a tuberculosis and malaria, have reemerged as public health care
Climate change impacts on

health include an expected increase in communicable diseases, such as malaria. Malaria is projected to
concerns. In India, unplanned urbanization has contributed to the spread of Plasmodium vivax malaria and dengue.
move to higher latitudes and altitudes in India.
An assessment in India projected shifts
in the geographical range and duration of the transmission window for

Plasmodium falciparum and Pvivax malaria.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 38
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 39
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Diarrhea: Diarrhea will be made worse in India as a result

of climate change.
Moors, Singh, Siderius, Balakrishnan, and Mishra 2013
Science of the Total Environment is an international journal for publication of original research on the total environment, which includes the
atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, and anthroposphere. The total environment is characterized where these five spheres overlap.
Studies that focus on at least two or three of these will be given primary consideration. Papers reporting results from only one sphere will not be
considered. Field studies are given priority over laboratory studies. The total environment is studied when data are collected and described from
these five spheres. By definition total environment studies must be multidisciplinary. This journal is highly regarded in this field.
To assess the impact of climate change on health and, more specifically, on the incidences of diarrhoea under tropical and subtropical conditions, we developed a
framework based on available knowledge on the effect by separate climate factors:
temperature, increased/extreme
precipitation, decreased precipitation and relative humidity .
We used studies showing significant correlation
between these factors and diarrhoea incidences. From those studies we selected the most appropriate for the Ganges basin. This, however, does not take into account studies which reported no significant correlation, let alone those
analyses without significant correlation that were never reported. So, although we selected the most plausible exposure-response functions, our estimates might be somewhat biased towards higher incidence impact factors. We
assumed an additive effect of all climate factors when quantifying the overall combined impact (see Fig. 5). However, the studied climate factors could be correlated with each other leading to an under- or overestimation of the true
impact. Based on the temperature relationship only, we expect this bias to be less than 3%. In addition, the effect of humidity on all-cause diarrhoea incidences is the least established in literature, to quantify the related uncertainty we
also conducted a separate analysis, omitting humidity in one of our impact projections (see right panel of Fig. 5).
Our estimated overall 13.1% increase
in diarrhoea incidences for the entire Ganges basin is slightly higher than the
global estimates of 811% (Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2003, Kolstad and Johansson, 2011 and McMichael et al., 2004) based
on temperature alone. Our study shows decreased precipitation, extreme rainfall
events and humidity may add 3% to the total effect of increased temperature.
Locally and depending on the time of year, the impact of these factors can even be more important. Especially in precipitation there is considerable spatial variation in change over the basin. A projected reduction in precipitation in the
middle and eastern part is contrasted by an increase around the edges of the model domain, in the west and north-east. However, here the risks are relatively low as the population density is extremely low. When deciding on adaptation
strategies, mostly done at the local level, this spatial and temporal variation in climate change can lead to different priorities. The presented analysis should be considered indicative, showing the importance of each climate factor.
Temperature, the climate factor resulting in the highest increase in incidences, is considered the
most robust of projected climate variables. The models simulate an increase of 1.8 by the 2040s for
northern India with a small spread around the model ensemble mean, in line with earlier general
circulation model estimates for the region (Kumar et al., 2013--this issue). Precipitation was found to vary much across the model ensemble (Mathison et al., 2013--this issue).
Against large decadal variability the modest projected average increase in annual precipitation of 33 mm by the 2040s is not significant (Kumar et al., 2013--this issue). The number of days with extreme precipitation was not found to
increase much by the 2040s. This is conflicting with expected increases in magnitude and frequency of occurrence (Seneviratne et al., 2012), but consistent with a lack of uniform trends in observed extreme precipitation over India
(Ghosh et al., 2011). The robustness of the projected change in humidity, a variable not often compared to measurements, is difficult to determine. We experienced lack of complete epidemiological data to be a major constraint,
hampering impact assessment using generalised exposure-response functions. The exact causal mechanisms explaining the impact of climate on diarrhoea still need to be clarified and are heavily disputed in literature (Kolstad and
Johansson, 2011). Impacts should be explained on the basis of concepts and bio-physical processes rather than from correlations driven by data availability. This means that for increased temperature and diarrhoea incidences the
causal mechanism should determine e.g. whether a linear or non-linear response function is to be expected and whether this is constant along the complete temperature range. And whether extreme rainfall leads to sewer system
overload and flushing of pathogens, or to dilution, resulting in opposite impact on incidences, needs further study as well. Defining the impact of humidity, often highly correlated to precipitation, should be based on a clear definition
of its casual pathway. Furthermore, measures to express these causal mechanisms are not always appropriately defined. We suggest to use maximum daily, rather than weekly or monthly values in case of extreme precipitation and to
relate the threshold for extreme precipitation to meteorological standards or, even better, design standards of sewage systems for it to be more easily transferable. Similarly, if drought is suggested as a causal mechanism it should be
defined by relevant drought indicators, rather than a simple decrease in precipitation below a random threshold, derived from correlation. Finally, comparison and replication would be helped by uniformity in both reporting and
analysis of diarrhoea causing agents. There is a general lack of good quality data (e.g. Beniston et al. (2012)) impeding our full understanding of complicated relationships between changes in our environment, human behaviour and
health. In India, improvements in disease surveillance and monitoring can take advantage of existing initiatives such as the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program. The institutional set-up could be utilised more efficiently, e.g. not
only by improving the quality of epidemiological data collected in terms of the periodicity and extent of coverage, but also by more extensive analysis of all data that is collected. National programs on water and sanitation in India,
such as the Total Sanitation Campaign, the Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme, the Accelerated Urban Water Supply Program, the National Rural Water Quality Monitoring and Surveillance Program play central roles in
ensuring access to safe drinking water and healthy environments. Combining these initiatives with a monitoring programme will greatly enhance understanding and help implementing effective adaptation measures. Since the precise
impact of climate change on human health and especially on infectious diseases is still poorly understood, the National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change can be critical in bridging research gaps and linking various
national programmes in this largely unexplored field of study in India.
Preventive actions, taking into account changes in
impacts because of climate change and population growth, supported by

appropriate policies can be very effective.
Table 2 shows that with the possible exception of source water treatment all other preventive actions have
the potential to overcome the expected increase of more than 10% in diarrhoea incidences. The success of these preventive strategies largely depends on the awareness and behaviour of individuals and their strict adherence (Figueroa
et al., 2007 and Waddington et al., 2009). Continuous efforts in promotions and health education on how diarrhoeal diseases spread and can be prevented are needed by the health, non-governmental and governmental sector (Clasen,
2009). Focusing awareness raising towards regions and seasons with high risks as highlighted by Fig. 1 will help to increase their impact. For the poor it is usually difficult to afford these behavioural changes, as they are connected to
some kind of investment or increased expenses. Self-organising processes, stakeholder participation and collective action could help to overcome these barriers (Pollard and du Toit, 2011). No data was available to quantify the effect
Despite great economic growth in the recent decades

diarrhoea incidences over the whole of India have increased over the past decade by about 10%
of other preventive measures such as improved drainage systems or water treatment plants.
(CBHI, 2011). Even when correcting for an average of 1.5% population growth (WB, 2012), the incidence ratio has not decreased. Investments in and improvement of
health care infrastructure have not kept pace with India's overall growth (Balarajan et al., 2011, CBHI, 2011 and Reddy et al., 2011). Therefore, without
any
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 39
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 40
_____________________________________________________________________________________
additional actions to improve the quality of all-inclusive access to health care, sewage infrastructure and waste
disposal,
there is no reason to expect that more than 10% increase in diarrhoea
incidences because of climate change will be autonomously counterbalanced.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 40
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 41
_____________________________________________________________________________________
State Failure: India will struggle with state failure as a result

of climate change.
Gallagher 2011
Nova Science Publishers is an academic publisher of books, encyclopedias, handbooks, e-books and journals, based in Hauppauge, New York.
While the firm publishes in several fields of academia, most of its publications cover fields of science and social science. As of November 2013,
it listed 103 currently published journals.
http://site.ebrary.com/lib/vacommonwealth/Doc?id=10670999
Agriculture and rural society will face the most severe disruptions from climate change. India may need a second Green Revolution to deal with these disruptions.
Climate change will most likely cause mass migrations both within India and from neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh. Refugee flows from other South
Asian states are also possible. Internal
migrations will mainly be from rural areas into Indias cities, which are
ill-equipped to deal with large influxes of environmental migrants. Climate change will in many
cases exacerbate existing inequities in Indias society and economy, potentially leading to internal
social disruptions. While a general state failure in India is unlikely,
India may accumulate a number of
failed constituent states. The states most at risk are the densely-populated,
underdeveloped, and politically unstable states of Indias northeastern
agricultural heartland. Beyond 2030, Indias ability to cope is unclear. The principal regional challenges generated
by climate change in South Asia will most likely be cross-border migration and water scarcity. The lack of effective regional institutions, longstanding political
disputes, and Indias preference for bilateral regional diplomacy will inhibit regional cooperation in confronting these issues. The region has a mixed record on
resolving water disputes.
As river flows decline, water disputes will intensify, leading to
increased tension with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China. Climate change

may cause humanitarian crises or state failures in one or more of Indias
neighbors, including its nuclear -armed rival Pakistan. A number of factors nevertheless inhibit India
from aggressively pursuing climate change mitigation. The
priority of the Indian state is sustained economic growth, in order

to alleviate poverty and keep up with strategic competitors mainly China. India will not sacrifice growth for the sake of climate
change mitigation. India views climate change mitigation as primarily the responsibility of the
developed countries. Although the state is engaged in planning climate change mitigation policies,
India tends to be slow and ineffective in executing such plans due to bureaucratic inertia, lack of
political will, and corruption.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 41
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 42
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Agriculture: Sorghum crop is extremely vulnerable to

climate change.
Moors, Singh, Siderius, Balakrishnan, and Mishra 2013
Science of the Total Environment is an international journal for publication of original research on the total environment, which includes the
atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, and anthroposphere. The total environment is characterized where these five spheres overlap.
Studies that focus on at least two or three of these will be given primary consideration. Papers reporting results from only one sphere will not be
considered. Field studies are given priority over laboratory studies. The total environment is studied when data are collected and described from
these five spheres. By definition total environment studies must be multidisciplinary. This journal is highly regarded in this field.
Sorghum ranks fifth among the world's most important crops. Its current world production stands at 64.58 million tonnes
while in India current production is 7.4 million tonnes (FAO, 2008). It serves as a raw material for food, fodder and many
industrial products. Sorghum, which has drought adaptation capability, is a preferred crop in
tropical, warmer and semi-arid regions of the world with high temperature and water stress (Peacock and
Heinrich, 1984). More than 70% of the world's total production of sorghum comes from the developing countries of Asia and Africa where the crop is grown with limited inputs of water and nutrients, it being a principal mainstay of
resource and technology poor farmers. In India, sorghum is cultivated during both monsoon (rainy) and winter (post rainy) season, mainly as a rainfed crop (92% of the area) with about 85% of the production concentrated in
Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, all falling under warm semi-arid region. In India, national average productivity of sorghum is very low (880 kg/ha) as against high yield obtained in USA and China. Low productivity can
Since sorghum is grown as a rainfed crop, the climatic factors play a

significant role in its productivity. With the threat of climate change looming large on the crop
productivity, the most vulnerable regions of the world are the tropics, particularly the semi-arid
regions where higher temperatures and increases in rainfall variability could have substantially
negative impacts (Parry et al., 2004). According to IPCC (2007), the 21st century is projected to experience 1.84.0 C rise in surface air temperature together with very likely occurrence of frequent warm spells,
be attributed to low and marginal management and rainfed cultivation.
heat waves and heavy rainfall and a likely increase in the frequency of droughts. Major climate change impacts on plants are through increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2, rise in temperature and change in rainfall. Earlier
studies on the effect of carbon dioxide fertilization have reported no significant yield increase in sorghum, a C4 crop, as C4 photosynthesis is already CO2 saturated (von Caemmerer and Furbank, 2003). However experiments
(Ghannoum et al., 2000 and Vu and Leon, 2009) have conclusively pointed out elevated CO2 stimulation in carbon assimilation under drought conditions or in short-term water stress conditions. This is caused by an increase in water
use efficiency via reduction in stomatal conductance. On the other hand, temperature influences yield mainly by controlling the rate of biomass accumulation and the duration of growth (Vu et al., 1997 and Fuhrer, 2003) apart from
Temperature influences the biomass accumulation mainly through

photosynthesis. The activation state of Rubisco, the enzyme responsible for CO2 assimilation in
plants, reduces at temperatures above the optimum (Holiday et al., 1992); and its specificity for CO2 and
solubility of CO2 relative to O2 reduces with increase in temperature (Jordan and Ogren, 1984 and Brooks and Farquhar, 1985), thus
pollen viability and seed setting (Schoper et al., 1986).
resulting in a net loss of carbon assimilation. But the optimum temperature for photosynthesis is higher in C4 plants as compared to C3 plants (Rosenberg et al., 1983 and Taiz and Zeiger, 1991). The mean optimum temperature range
for sorghum is 2135 C for seed germination, 2634 C for vegetative growth and development, and 2528 C for reproductive growth (Maiti, 1996). Secondly, temperature rise affects the duration of growth. Higher temperatures
High
temperatures decrease seed-filling duration (Fuhrer, 2003), resulting in smaller seed size and lower seed
yields (Chowdhury and Wardlaw, 1978, Kiniry and Musser, 1988 and Abrol and Ingran, 1996). Apart from temperature, rainfall is another major factor which influences the crop yield, more so of rainfed crops. Since climate
lead to a rapid accumulation of growing degree days; thus growth and development of the crop are faster, resulting in the reduction of phenophase duration, hence yield (Attri and Rathore, 2003).
change is projected to affect food production in India (IPCC, 2007), it is important to quantify the impact of climate change on individual crops in order to derive specific adaptation strategies. Altering cultivars and planting times can
allow low- and mid- to high-latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming (IPCC, 2007) and yield can be increased if the crop growth period is increased (Cooper, 1992). Hence it is important
to quantify the adaptation gains in order to assess the net vulnerability of target crop. To capture the impact of projected climate change scenarios, simulations were carried out using the HadCM3 model A2a scenario projection on
temperature and rainfall along with the Bern CC model projections on atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2020 (414 ppmV), 2050 (522 ppmV) and 2080 (682 ppmV) scenarios. In these, spatio-temporal variations exist in projected
An increase in monsoon rainfall and a reduction in

winter rainfall is projected. Average seasonal rainfall in SWZ region is least among the regions considered. These outputs of global
climate model were input along with projected CO2 levels into InfoCrop-SORGHUM to simulate the impacts
rise in temperatures and also in projected changes in rainfall with higher rise in temperature in SCZ and SWZ.
of climate change on grain yield with current management practices.
Climate change is
projected to reduce monsoon sorghum grain yield to the tune of 16% in CZ and SWZ
and by 3% in SCZ
by 2020 (Fig. 4). Yields are likely to be affected to the tune of 17% in CZ and SCZ to
76% in SWZ during 2050 and 2080 scenarios.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 42
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 43
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Water Security: Saltwater intrusions will increase as a result

of climate change.
World Bank 2013
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research was founded in 1992. About 340 people work at the institute. Researchers from the natural
and social sciences analyze the earth system and develop strategies and solution pathways for a sustainable development. The World Bank is a
United Nations international financial institution that provides loans to developing countries for capital programs. The World Bank is a
component of the World Bank Group, and a member of the United Nations Development Group. The World Bank's official goal is the reduction
of poverty. According to its Articles of Agreement, all its decisions must be guided by a commitment to the promotion of foreign investment and
international trade and to the facilitation of capital investment.
http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_Extremes_Regional_Im
pacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
Sea-level rise and tropical cyclones may

increase salinity intrusion, thereby contaminating freshwater resourcesan effect
that can persist for years. The most common health implication is hypertension; however there are a broad range of health
Health impacts associated with saltwater intrusion are likely to increase.
problems potentially linked to increased salinity exposure through bathing, drinking, and cooking.
These include miscarriages, skin disease, acute respiratory infection, and

diarrheal disease. Cholera outbreaks may also become more frequent as the
bacterium that causes cholera, vibrio cholerae, survives longer in saline water. About 20 million
people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh are already affected by salinity in their drinking water.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 43
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 44
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Energy Security: Energy security will be severely weakened

due to climate change.
World Bank 2013
The two dominant forms

of power generation in the region are hydropower and thermal power
generation (e.g., fossil fuel, nuclear, and concentrated solar power), both of which can be
Energy security is expected to come under increasing pressure from climate-related impacts to water resources.
undermined by inadequate water supplies . Thermal power generation may also be affected through pressure placed
on cooling systems by increases in air and water temperatures.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 44
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 45
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Water Security and Glaciers: Loss of the Himalayan and

Hindu Kush glaciers will reduce available water resources.
World Bank 2013
Apart from the monsoon, the
dominant geographical feature of South Asia fundamentally influencing its
water hydrography is
the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain complex . These mountains
block the northerly push of the monsoon, confining its precipitation effects to
the South Asian subcontinent and providing, with their snow and glacial
melt, the primary source of upstream freshwater for many of South Asias
river basins. Climate change impacts on the Himalayan and the Hindu Kush glaciers therefore
directly affect the people and economies of the countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India , Nepal, and Pakistan.
These water towers of Asia play a dominant role in feeding and regulating the flow of the major river systems of the region: the Indus, the Ganges, and the
Brahmaputra. These rivers drain into the coast, with the Ganges and the Brahmaputra carrying huge sediment loads from the Himalayas, creating the densely
populated mega-delta that encompasses West Bengal and Bangladesh (see Figures 5.10 and 5.11). Reductions in the glacial mass and snow cover of the Hindu Kush
and the Himalayas can have a profound effect on the long-term water availability over much of the subcontinent. Changes
in the characteristics
of precipitation over the mountains, leading to increasingly intense rainfall, contribute along with other factors to
much higher flood risks far downstream and interact adversely with rising sea levels on the coast.
The Indus, the Ganges, and the Brahmaputra basins provide water to
approximately 750 million people (209 million, 478 million, and 62 million respectively in the year 2005; Immerzeel et al. 2010).
The Ganges basin on the east of the subcontinent has the largest population size and density of the three basins. Both the Indus and the Ganges supply large areas with
water for irrigation (144,900m and 156,300m respectively), while the 2,880-kilometer Indus River constitutes one of the longest irrigation systems in the world. All
three rivers are fed by the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent mountain ranges (Immerzeel, Van Beek, and Bierkens 2010; Uprety and Salman 2011). In fact,
over
50 percent of the worlds population lives downstream of the Greater

Himalaya region ,
with snowmelt providing over 40 percent of pre- and early-monsoon discharge in the Greater Himalaya catchments, and more than 65 percent and 30 percent of annual discharge
in the Indus and Tsangpo/Brahmaputra catchments, respectively. An increasing occurrence of extremely low snow years and a shift toward extremely high winter/spring runoff and extremely low summer runoff would therefore
increase the flood risk during the winter/spring, and decrease the availability of freshwater during the summer (Giorgi et al. 2011). The Indus and the Brahmaputra basins depend heavily on snow and glacial melt water, which make
them extremely susceptible to climate-change-induced glacier melt and snowmelt (Immerzeel, Van Beek, and Bierkens 2010).91 In fact, most of the Himalayan glaciers, where 80 percent of the moisture is supplied by the summer
monsoon, have been retreating over the past century. Where the winter westerly winds are the major source of moisture, some of the glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas and in the Karakoram have remained stable or even
advanced (Bolch et al. 2012; Immerzeel et al. 2010). Projections for the future indicate an overall risk to the flow of these rivers. For the 204565 period (global mean warming of 2.3C above pre-industrial levels),
very
substantial reductions in the flow of the Indus and Brahmaputra in late

spring and summer are projected
. These reductions would follow the spring period of increased flow due to melting glaciers and are not compensated by the
projected increase in rainfall upstream. The Ganges, due to high annual downstream precipitation during the monsoon season, is less dependent on melt water (Immerzeel et al. 2010).92 Although snowfall in the mountainous areas in
South Asia may increase (e.g., Immerzeel et al. 2010; Mukhopadhyay 2012), this may in the long run be offset by the decrease in glacial melt water as glaciers retreat due to warming (Immerzeel et al. 2010a). Furthermore, the
distribution of the available river melt water runoff within the year may change due to accelerated snowmelt. This is caused by increased spring precipitation (Jeelani, Feddema, Van der Veen, and Stearns 2012), with less runoff
available prior to the onset of the monsoon. More recent research projects a rapid increase in the frequency of low snow years in the coming few decades, with a shift toward high winter and spring runoff and very low summer flows
likely well before 2C warming. These trends are projected to become quite extreme in a 4C warming scenario (Diffenbaugh, Scherer, and Ashfaq 2012). Combined with precipitation changes, loss of glacial ice and a changing
snowmelt regime could lead to substantial changes in downstream flow. For example, the Brahmaputra River may experience extreme low flow conditions less frequently in the future (Gain, Immerzeel, Sperna Weiland, and Bierkens
2011). There could be a strong increase in peak flow, however, which is associated with flooding risks (Ghosh and Dutta 2012). Combined with projected sea-level rise, this could have serious implications for Bangladesh and other
low-lying areas in the region (Gain et al. 2011). Given the potential impacts across the Northern Hemisphere, this report highlights the likelihood of intensifying hydrologic stress in snow-dependent regions, beginning in the near-term
decades when global warming is likely to remain within 2C of the pre-industrial baseline.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 45
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 46
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Mumbai: Mumbai is at particular risk for flooding.

World Bank 2013
Mumbai , due to its geography, is particularly exposed to both flooding from heavy rainfall during the
monsoon
and sea-level rise inundation as large parts of the city are built on reclaimed land which lies
lower than the high-tide level. Indeed,
the city has the largest population exposed to
coastal flooding in the world
(IPCC 2012) (Box 5.3). The citys drainage system is already inadequate in the face of heavy rainfall, and rapid and unplanned urbanization is
likely to further increase the flood risk in Mumbai (Ranger et al. 2011). The projected increase in heavy precipitation events associated with climate change poses a serious risk to the cityand that does not even take into account the
effects of sea-level rise. By the 2080s and with a warming of 3C to 3.5C above pre-industrial levels, climate projections indicate a doubling of the likelihood of an extreme event similar to the 2005 floods (and a return period
Direct economic damages (i.e., the costs of replacing and repairing damaged
infrastructure and buildings) of a 1-in-100 year event are estimated to triple in the
future compared to the present day and to increase to a total of up to $1.9
billion due to climate change only
reduced to around 1-in-90 years).105
(without taking population and economic growth into account). Additional indirect economic costs, such as sectoral inflation, job
losses, higher public deficit, and financial constraints slowing down the process of reconstruction, are estimated to increase the total economic costs of a 1-in-100 year event to $2.4 billion (Ranger et al. 2011). Without adaptation,
population and economic growth would increase the exposure to and damage of flooding events in the future. In terms of adaptation, Ranger et al. (2011) estimate that improved building codes and improving the drainage system in
Mumbai could reduce direct economic costs by up to 70 percent. A limitation of Ranger et al. (2011) is that the study does not include the impacts of sea-level riseeven though it is very plausible that even low levels of sea-level rise
would further reduce the effectiveness of drainage systems. This report projects the sea-level rise in Mumbai at around 35 cm by the 2050s under either of the emission pathways leading to the 2C or 4C worlds; for the 2 world, a
rise of around 60 cm by the 2080s and, for the 4C world, a rise of close to 80 cm (see Chapter 5 on Regional Sea-level Rise).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 46
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 47
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Kolkata: Kolkata is at particular risk for flooding.

World Bank 2013
Kolkata is ranked among the top 10 cities in the world in terms of exposure to flooding under
climate change projections (IPCC 2012; UN-HABITAT 2010b; World Bank 2011a). The elevation of Kolkata city and the metropolitan area
surrounding the city ranges from 1.511 meters above sea level (World Bank 2011a). Kolkata is projected to be exposed to increasing
precipitation, storm surges, and sea-level rise under climate change scenarios. Roughly
a third
of the total population of 15.5 million (2010 data; UN-HABITAT 2010) live in slums, which
significantly increases the vulnerability of the population to these risk factors.
Furthermore, 15 percent of the population live by the Hooghly River and are highly exposed to flooding. Another factor adding to the vulnerability of Kolkata is
unplanned and unregulated urbanization; infrastructure development is insufficient and cannot keep pace with current urbanization rates (World Bank 2011a). A
recent study by the World Bank (2011a)106 on urban flooding as a consequence of climate-change finds that a 100-year return period storm will result in doubling the
area flooded by a depth of 0.50.75m (i.e. high threat level) under the A1F1 climate change scenario (this scenario considers a projected sea-level rise of 27 cm and a
16 percent increase in precipitation by 2050). This excludes Kolkata city, which is analyzed separately, as the city has sewerage networks in place; these sewerage
networks are essentially absent in the peri-urban areas surrounding the city. According to the projections presented in Chapter 5 on Regional Sea-level Rise, the
sea-level rise in Mumbai and Kolkata is expected to reach 25 cm by the 2030s40s. In Kolkata city, with a
population of approximately five million and a population density almost three times higher than the metropolitan area (the city has a population density of 23,149
persons per km while the metropolitan area has a population density of only 7,950 people per km),
a flood depth of more than
0.25 meters is expected to affect 41 percent of the city area and about 47
percent of the population in 2050 compared to 39 percent of the city area and 45 percent of the population under the baseline
scenario (World Bank 2011a). In terms of damages in Kolkata city only, which accounts for an area of around 185 km (the metropolitan area surrounding the city is
about 1,851 km) the
World Bank (2011a) study estimates the additional climate-change-related damages from a
100-year return-period flood to be $790 million in 2050 (including
damages to residential
buildings and other property, income losses, losses in the commercial,

industrial, and health care sectors, and damages to roads and the
transportation and electricity infrastructures ). Due to data constraints, both total damages and the additional
losses caused by increased flooding as a consequence of climate change should be viewed as lower-bound estimates (World Bank 2011a). Given that sea-level rise is
projected to increase beyond 25 cm to 50 cm by 2075 (and 75 cm by 2100) in the lower warming scenario of 2C, these risks are likely to continue to grow with
climate change.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 47
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 48
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Agriculture: Rice/wheat production is vulnerable to climate

change.
World Bank 2013
Agriculture contributes approximately 18 percent to South Asias GDP (2011 data based on World Bank 2013l);
more than 50 percent of the population is employed in the sector (2010 data based on World Bank 2013m) and
directly dependent on it. In Bangladesh, for example, rural communities, representing large parts of the population, are expected to remain dependent on agriculture despite structural changes in the
economy away from climate-sensitive sectors in the future. As a result, much of the population will remain vulnerable to these climate change impacts (World Bank 2009). Productivity growth in
agriculture is thus an important driver of poverty reduction, and it is highly dependent on the
hydrological cycle and freshwater availability (Jacoby, Mariano, and Skoufias 2011).
The rice-wheat system
in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which meets the staple food needs of more than
400 million people, is a highly vulnerable regional system. The system, which covers an area of
around 13.5 million hectares in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, provides highly productive land and contributes substantially to the regions food production.
Declining soil productivity, groundwater depletion, and declining water

availability, as well as increased pest incidence and salinity, already threaten
sustainability and food security in the region
(Wassmann, Jagadish, Sumfleth, et al. 2009). Climate change is projected to have a significant
and often adverse impact on agricultural production in South Asia, the development of the sector, and the economic benefits derived from it (Nelson et al. 2009). There are a significant number of risks arising from climate-changerelated phenomena that need to be considered in assessing the future impacts on the sector (Box 5.4). For example, the upper temperature sensitivity threshold for current cultivars for rice is 3538C and for wheat is 3035C
(Wassmann, Jagadish, Sumfleth, et al. 2009). Future
heat extremes may thus pose a significant risk to regional production of these
crops. This section will provide a short overview of the major risks to crop and agricultural production in the region before turning to model-based projections of
the observed rice yield decline in

the IGP (19852000) as a result of the combined decrease in radiation and increase in
minimum temperature.a Confirming this, Auffhammer, Ramanathan, and Vincent (2006) apply an agro-economic model over all of India
and find that atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases, reducing radiation and
future agricultural output. Using agro-meteorological crop modeling, Pathak et al. (2003) explain
increasing minimum temperatures, have contributed to the recent slowdown

in rice harvest growth . In more recent work, the effects of changes in monsoon, drought, and temperature have been disentangled.
Auffhammer et al. (2011) find that rice yields in India would be 1.7 percent higher on average if the monsoon pattern had not changed since 1960, and an additional
four percent higher
if two further meteorological changes, warmer nights and less
precipitation at the end of the growing season, had not occurred

minimum temperatures is reported at 3.4 percent; this caused more than half of the total yield decline. Accordingly, the results indicate that
have been almost six percent higher
. The individual effect of increasing
average yield in India could
(75 million tons in absolute terms) without changing climatic conditions and confirm that increasing minimum
temperatures have had a greater impact on yield than changing monsoon characteristics. The analysis does not account for adaptive responses by farmers. While controlling for increases of yield due to advances in agricultural
technology, the authors assume that the simulated yield reduction is a lower bound estimate (Auffhammer et al. 2011). Auffhammer et al. (2011) further point out that, though their analysis is based only on observational data and not
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 48
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 49
_____________________________________________________________________________________
on climate models, the results are consistent with climate model projectionsand yield reductions are likely to be larger in the future with projected increasing temperatures and, in some models, a continued weakening of the
monsoon (Chapter 5 on Precipitation Projections).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 49
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 50
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Energy Security: Sufficient energy supply is a prerequisite to

development, and it is threatened by climate change.
World Bank 2013
Sufficient energy supply is a major precondition for development, and

electricity shortages remain a major bottleneck for economic growth in South
Asian countries (ADB 2012). A lack of energy, and poor infrastructure in general, deter private
investment and limit economic growth (Naswa and Garg 2011). Only 62 percent of the South Asian population (including
Afghanistan) has access to electricity, including 62 percent in Pakistan, 66 percent in India, 41 percent in Bangladesh, 43 percent in Nepal, and 77 percent in Sri
Lanka; no data are available for Bhutan and the Maldives (2009 data; World Bank 2013e). This indicates that there is still a major gap in electricity supply to
householdsespecially in rural areas. As Table 5.4 shows,
the two main sources of electricity in the region
are hydroelectric and thermoelectric power plants . Both sources are expected to be affected by climate
change. The
high proportion of electricity generation in South Asia that requires a water supply points
to the potential vulnerability of the regions electricity sector to changes in river flow and in water
temperature.
Hydroelectricity is dependent only on river runoff (Ebinger and Vergara 2011).
Thermoelectricity , on the other hand, is influenced by both river runoff and , more generally,
the availability and temperature of water resources (Van Vliet et al. 2012).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 50
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 51
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Childhood Stunting: Childhood growth is negatively affected

by malnutrition due to climate change.
World Bank 2013
Climate change is expected to negatively affect food production (see Chapter 5 on Agricultural Production), and
may therefore have direct implications for malnutrition and undernutritionincreasing the risk of
both poor health and rising death rates (Lloyd, Kovats, and Chalabi 2011). The potential impact of climate change on childhood stunting,
an indicator measuring undernourishment, is estimated by Lloyd, Kovats, and Chalabi (2011). At present, more than 31 percent of
children under the age of five in South Asia are underweight (2011 data based on World Bank 2013n). Using estimates of
changes in calorie availability attributable to climate change, and particularly to its impact on crop production, Lloyd et al. (2011) estimate that
climate
change may lead to a 62 percent increase in severe childhood stunting and a

29 percent increase in moderate stunting in South Asia by 2050 for a
warming of approximately 2C above pre-industrial levels. 115 As the model is based on the
assumption that within-country food distribution remains at baseline levels, it would appear that better distribution could to some extent mitigate the projected increase
in childhood stunting.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 51
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 52
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Malaria: Malaria epidemics span larger areas as a result of

climate change.
World Bank 2013
Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of malaria in the region, causing it to spread
into areas at the margins of the current distribution where colder climates had previously limited
transmission of the vector-borne disease (Ebi et al. 2007). Pandey (2010) finds that
the relative risk of
malaria in South Asia is projected to increase by 5 percent in 2030 (174,000 additional

incidents)
and 4.3 percent in 2050 (116,000 additional incidents) in the wetter scenario (NCAR). The drier scenario (CSIRO) does not
project an increase in risk; this may be because calculations of the relative risk of malaria consider the geographical distribution and not the extended duration of the
malarial transmission season (Pandey 2010). As in the case of diarrheal disease,
malaria cases are projected to
significantly decrease in the absence of climate change (from 4 million cases in 2030 to 3 million cases
in 2050).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 52
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 53
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Salinity: Salinity intrusion into freshwater compounds

health risks.
World Bank 2013
Salinity intrusion into freshwater resources adds another health risk. About
20 million people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh

are already affected by salinity in their drinking water. With rising sea levels and more intense
cyclones and storm surges, the contamination of groundwater and surface water is expected to
intensify.
Contamination of drinking water by saltwater intrusion may cause an increasing number
of cases of diarrhea. Cholera outbreaks may also become more frequent as the
bacterium that causes cholera , vibrio cholerae, survives longer in saline water (A. E. Khan,
Xun, Ahsan, and Vineis 2011; A. E. Khan, Ireson, et al. 2011). Salinity is particularly problematic in the dry season, when salinity in rivers and groundwater is
significantly higher due to less rain and higher upstream freshwater withdrawal. It is expected to be further aggravated by climate-change-induced sealevel rise,
reduced river flow, and decreased dry season rainfall. A study conducted in the Dacope sub-district in Bangladesh found that the population in the area consumed 5
16g of sodium per day from drinking water alone in the dry season, which is significantly higher than the 2g of dietary sodium intake per day recommended by WHO
and FAO. There is strong evidence that
higher salt intake causes high blood pressure . Hypertension in
pregnancy, which is found to be 12 percent higher in the dry season compared to the wet season in Dacope, also has adverse effects on
maternal and fetal health, including impaired liver function, intrauterine growth retardation, and
preterm birth (A. E. Khan, Ireson, et al. 2011).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 53
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 54
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Migration: Waves of migration will result from climatechange related flooding.

World Bank 2013
Migration, often undertaken as short-term labor migration, is a common coping strategy for people living in disasteraffected or degraded areas (World Bank 2010f). (See Chapter 3 on Population Movement for more discussion on the mechanisms driving
migration.) There is no consensus estimate of future migration patterns resulting from climate-change-related risks, such as extreme weather events and sea-level rise,
migration, including
permanent relocation, is expected to be heightened by climate change, and
particularly by sea-level rise and erosion. Inland migration of households and economic activity has already been
and most estimates are highly speculative (Gemenne 2011; World Bank 2010g). Nevertheless, the potential for
observed in Bangladesh, where exposed coastal areas are characterized by lower population growth rates than the rest of the country (World Bank 2010d). A sea-level
rise of one meter is expected to affect 13 million people in Bangladesh (World Bank 2010d),118 although this would not necessarily imply that all people affected
would be permanently displaced (Gemenne 2011). Hugo (2011) points out that migration occurs primarily within national borders and that the main driver of
migration is demographic change; environmental changes and other economic and social factors often act as contributing causes.
In the specific case
of flooding , however, environmental change is the predominant cause of

migration . Hugo (2011) identifies South Asia as a hotspot for both population growth and future international migration as a consequence of demographic
changes, poverty, and the impacts of climate change.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 54
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 55
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Water Wars: Shortages from climate change will lead to

wars over water access.
World Bank 2013
Although there is a lack of research on climate change and conflicts, there is some evidence that climate change and related impacts (e.g.,
water
scarcity and food shortages ) may increase the likelihood of conflicts (De Stefano et al. 2012; P.
K. Gautam 2012).
A reduction in water availability from rivers , for example, could cause
resource-related conflicts and thereby further threaten the water security of

South Asia (P. K. Gautam 2012). The Indus and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins are South Asias major transboundary river basins, and
tensions among the riparian countries over water use do occur. In the context of declining quality and quantity of water supplies in these countries,
increasing demand for water is already causing tensions over water sharing (De
Stefano et al. 2012; Uprety and Salman 2011). Water management treaties are considered to be potentially helpful in minimizing the risk of the eruption of such
conflicts (Bates et al. 2008; ESCAP 2011). There are bilateral water treaties established for the Indus Basin (although Afghanistan, to which 6 percent of the basin
belongs, and China, to which 7 percent of the basin belongs, are not signatories), between India and Bangladesh for the Ganges, and between India and Nepal for the
most important tributaries of the Ganges; there are, however, no water treaties for the Brahmaputra (Uprety and Salman 2011). It has been noted that China is absent
as a party to the above-mentioned treaties, though it is an important actor in the management of the basins (De Stefano et al. 2012). Although water-sharing treaties
may not avert dissension, they often help to solve disagreements in negotiation processes and to stabilize relations (De Stefano et al. 2012). Uprety and Salman (2011)
sharing and managing water resources in South Asia have become more
complex due to the high vulnerability of the region to climate change. Based on the
projections for water and food security presented above, it is likely that the risk of conflicts over water resources
indicate that
may increase with the severity of the impacts.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 55
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 56
_____________________________________________________________________________________
2. Biodiversity destruction of biodiversity threatens extinction,

directly threatening the lives of the people of India.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 56
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 57
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Indian Biodiversity: India is one of the mega biodiversity

centers of the world.
Kumar and Chopra 2009
Gurukula Kangri University was founded on March 4, 1902 with the aim to provide an indigenous alternative to Lord Macaulays education
policy by imparting education in the areas of vedic literature, Indian philosophy, Indian culture, modern sciences and research. It is a deemed to
be university fully funded by UGC/Govt. of India.
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/235406821_Impact_of_climate_change_on_biodiversity_of_India_with_special_reference_to_Himalaya
n_region-An_overview/file/60b7d5141773a6977c.pdf
India is rich in its unique flora and fauna and famous worldwide for this incredible heritage. It is estimated that
about 45,000 species of
plants and 65,000 species of animals are found in India.
The flowering plants
comprise 15,000 species of which several hundred (5000-7500) species are endemic. Among the animal species diversity
more than 50,000 species of insects, 4,000 molluscs, 6,500 other vertebrates, 2,546 fishes, 197
amphibians, 408 reptiles, 1224 birds and 350 species of mammals are found in different habitats.
Therefore,
this great strength of flora and fauna put the country in the list of mega
biodiversity centers (Hot-Spot) of the world . The mega biodiversity places of India are Western Ghat and Eastern Himalaya
(MoEF, 2000 and Myers et al., 2000).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 57
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 58
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Himalayan Biodiversity: The Himalayan biodiversity is

especially significant.
The Himalayas, which literally mean the abode of snow, is the youngest and the highest range of Fold Mountains in the world. The Himalayas consist of three parallel ranges, the Greater Himalayas known as the Himadri, the Lesser
Himalayas called the Himachal, and the Shivalik hills, which comprise the foothills. It extends between 28o N- 36o N latitude and 72o N-96o N longitude run almost without break for about 2500 km. and with a width about 200-400
geological,
climatic and altitudinal variations in the hotspot, as well as topographic complexity, contribute to
the biological diversity of the mountains along their east-west and north-south axes. The flora and fauna of the
km. Biogeographically, the Himalayan mountain range straddles a transition zone between the Pale-arctic and Indo-Malayan realms. Species from both realms are represented in the hotspot. In addition,
Himalayas varies with rainfall, altitude, and soils. The climate ranges from tropical at the base of the mountains to permanent ice and snow at the highest elevations.
The amount of yearly rainfall increases from west to east along the front of the range. This diversity
of altitude, rainfall and soil

conditions generates a variety of distinct plant and animal communities, or eco-regions. Besides this the mighty Himalayas are the cradle
of nearly 1500 glaciers covering an area of about 33,000 sq km. Snow, ice and glaciers in the region are approximately equivalent to about 1,400 cu.km of ice. These glaciers provide the snow and the glacial-melt waters that keep the
major rivers perennial throughout the year (Pachauri, 2007). Phytogeographically, the Eastern Himalayas forms a distinct floral region and comprises Nepal, Bhutan, neighbouring states of east and north-east India, and a contiguous
In the whole of Eastern Himalayas, there are an estimated

9000 plant species, with 3500 (i.e. 39%) of them being endemic. In Indias sector of the area, there occur some 5800 plant species, roughly 2000
sector Yunnan province in south western China.
(i.e. 36%) of them being endemic (MoEF, 2000). Of the estimated 10,000 species of plants in the Himalaya hotspot, about 3,160 are endemic, as are 71 genera, 300
mammals, 977 birds, 176 reptiles, 105 amphibians and 269 fresh water fishes.
The Himalayas are the sources of water
and many river valley projects of the sub-region.
The Himalayas are the home of a great biological resources both flora and fauna
species along with agricultural plant resources. The mighty Himalayas along with the extension act as an effective climatic barriers as it strikes the cold and chilly winds originated near the Arctic Circle and blow across the Central
and Eastern Asia. So the mountain chain provides an invincible shield to protect the subcontinent from these winds. Thus Himalaya gives the tropical climate to the country. The geology of the region supports many precious metals.
Its glaciers, lakes, rivers, the main source of fresh water for the people of the region also provide irrigation sources to agriculture and power generation. The biological resources of the region are much diverse as there are about 35000
species of flora and fauna available over the Himalayan region.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 58
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 59
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Biodiversity Destruction: Indian biodiversity will be

destroyed by climate change.
The word climate refers to the weather variation of any specific area over a period of time. Climate includes the average temperature, amount of precipitation, days of sunlight, and other variables that might be measured at any given site. However, there are also changes within the Earths environment that can affect the climate. Climate change refers to change in weather patterns, which
is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. The increase in annual mean temperatures will cause the biggest problems for plants, animals, and human beings. Climate change is not just about averages, it is also a matter of extremes.
Climate change is likely to affect minimum and maximum temperatures and trigger more extreme rainfall events and storms. For the Indian sub-continent, less rainfall in winter and increased precipitation in the summer monsoon are predicted; and in 2050, decreases in winter precipitation by 10-20% and by 30% for the summer have been projected. Climate change and global warming
will have a huge impact on the Himalayas. There are more than 5,000 glaciers in the Indian part of Himalayas. They contribute 50-70% of the western Himalayans rivers and slightly less in eastern Himalaya.
land escape, climatic regime and biodiversity.
India is a unique country in its physiographic,
The country has diverse climatic conditions because of the sharp variations in temperature and precipitation reactions from place to place and season to season. While the mercury touches 55oC in the Great
Indian Desert, it drops to 45oC in winter around Leh in Jammu and Kashmir. Mausinram (Meghalaya) a place in India has the worlds highest average rainfall (11,873 mm), while in Jasselmer in Rajasthan has minimum rainfall of 10-25mm only. The climatic variation in the country provides a wide range of biological resources in their natural habitat. There is a long list of flora and
fauna in the account of the subcontinent due to the favorable climatic conditions. It supports a wide range of biological diversity. One of the mega biodiversity centers in the country is in Himalayan region as eastern Himalayas. There are a large number of national parks, sanctuaries, biosphere reserves and other protected areas which exist as world heritage sites, support a unique
biological diversity. In the Indian subcontinent, temperature could rise between 3.5 and 5.5 C by 2100. An even greater increase is assumed for the Tibetan Plateau. Rapid melt will accelerate river runoff which will initially reduce the ice reserve below a critical threshold and then causing catastrophic floods (referred to by others as the mountain tsunami), which can sweep away all
means of livelihood in a single stroke (Bajracharya et al., 2007). The anticipated effect on the environment and peoples livelihoods in the Himalayan region could be substantial. The changes will certainly be complex and to date they are not fully understood. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study implications of climate and environmental change on peoples livelihoods in the
Himalayas. It is clear that the foreseen changes will affect the provision of Himalayan water resources (Eriksson, 2006). Due to a large number of anthropogenic activities the global climate has changed since last few decades. The main consequences of climate change are greenhouse effect, global warming and ozone depletion. Global average surface temperature increased 0.6 (0.2) oC
in the 20th century and will increase by 1.4 to 5.8 oC by 2100. Over the past 100 years, mean surface temperatures have increased by 0.3-0.8 oC across the region (IPCC, 2007). The ever increasing demand for the resources of the population put the pressure on the biological resources of the world. Industrialization, urbanization, transportation and deforestation are main anthropogenic
Any particular
ecosystem consists of an assemblage of species, some of which will be near the edge of their ranges
and others of which will not. Those at the edge of their ranges may need to move due to climate
activities that change the environment and influence climate (IRC, 2002). Climate change is likely to have a number of impacts on biodiversity from ecosystem to species level. The most obvious impact is the effect that temperature and precipitation have on species, ranges and ecosystem boundaries
change (Lemoine and Bhning-Gaese, 2003).
The major proximate causes of species extinction are
habitat loss and fragmentation
, which are extremely accelerated by climate change through various ways. The cheer pheasants (Catreus wallichi), with a range primarily
limited to the Jammu and Kashmir regions, are declining due to loss of the habitat (Wikramanayake et al., 1998). The genus Schizothorax is represented by at least six endemic species in the high mountain lakes and streams, while
two other genera of these snow trout, the genus Ptychobarbus and the Ladakh snow-trout (Gymnocypris biswasi) is a monotypic genus now thought to be extinct and are also unique to the Himalaya Hotspot (IUCN, 2004). The biggest
factor of present concern is the increase in greenhouse gases mainly CO2 level which change the climate and weather pattern of the world. In India the situation is as critical as continuous rain failure in the northern plains create the
condition of drought in this region. The shrinkage of glaciers, decreasing water flow of the perennial rivers depleting ground water level directly and indirectly affect the biodiversity of the subregion. Some of the most immediate
The life cycles of many wild plants and animals are closely
linked to the passing of the seasons and climate. Many developmental processes of the organisms
are dominantly dependent on day length and the other on temperature or precipitation. In principle, at least,
effects of recent climate change are becoming apparent through effects on biodiversity.
this could lead to extinctions or changes in the distribution and abundance of

species.
These changes in climatic pattern disrupt the ecological wealth of the subcontinent. By 2000, the region had lost 15 per cent of its forest cover compared with the early 1970s. By 2100, it will have lost almost half its forests. Less than one-third of the dense forest on which many native species depend will survive in the western Himalaya, while
less than three-quarters in the eastern Himalaya will remain (NSE, 2006). Climate change during last few decades had a significant impact on the high mountain glacial environment. Glaciers are highly sensitive to minor changes in the atmospheric temperature. Therefore, glaciers are considered as very good indicators that help us to quantify changes in the Earths climate. It is widely
confirmed that climate change is the main factor behind the accelerated glacier retreat observed in the Himalayas. The melting of Shiva Lingam (made with ice naturally) in the holy cave of Amaranth in Jammu and Kashmir is a clear indication of increasing temperature in the Himalayan region (DDNEWS, 2007).It is forecasted that the Himalayan glaciers could shrink to 100,000 square
km (38,610 square miles) by the 2030s, from 500,000 square km (193,100 square miles) now, if the current pace of global warming continues (Kireet Kumar, 2005). Himalaya is the water tower of the South Asian region, providing direct freshwater supply to millions of people living in Indo Gangetic Plains through the perennial river systems. The regions agricultural productivity and
power generation are greatly dependent on the freshwater supply of the discharge from Himalayan glaciers. Himalayas are home to some of the worlds largest river systems like Ganga, Yamuna, Indus, Brahmaputra, etc. and contribute major water supply systems for agricultural, industrial, commercial and domestic usage in non-peninsular parts of the country. In the current scenario, a
critical change is taking place in this water-rich Himalayan region that not only reveals the myths about adequate availability of water in the region, but also endorses the critical need of sustainable water management measures in the region. Due to the human induced climate change and the increasing temperature regime the glacial system in the Himalayan region are undergoing major
changes leading to a more vulnerable future to inhabitants and to the water security of the region. In northern India, a region already facing severe water scarcity and power supply problems. It is estimated about 500 million people depend on the tributaries of the glacier-fed Indus and Ganges rivers for irrigation and drinking water. But as the Himalayas melt, these rivers are expected to
initially swell and then fall to dangerously low levels, particularly in summer. The melting of glaciers because of global warming has left the scientific community worried. The glaciers in the Himalayas are melting at a very rapid rate which has major implications for water supply in the northern part of the Indian subcontinent (Pachauri, 2007). Beginning with the industrial revolution in
the 1850s and accelerating ever since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has increased CO2 levels from a concentration of 280 ppm to more than 380 ppm today. These increases are projected to reach more than 560 ppm before the end of the 21st century. It is known that carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last eight lakh years. Along with rising
methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.45.6 oC between 1990 and 2100 (Lonergan, 1998). Some of the most immediate effects of recent climate change are becoming apparent through effects on biodiversity. The life cycles of many wild and domestic plants and animals are closely linked to the passing of the seasons and climatic changes. The decreasing
water budget in these rivers year after year, coupled with the ever increasing incoming sediment load, has choked the minor drainages and is continuously silting up, at an alarming rate, even the major river system. The summer discharge in the mighty Ganga river has shown a sharp decline in recent years. In mountain region climate change can prove disastrous.
Flash floods, droughts and change in seasonal cycle have become very
common. All river valleys have become disaster prone and maintaining the
level of crop production has become very uncertain.
The problem of water quality may be exacerbated by climate change. The
possible increase in differences between wet and dry seasons may imply wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons. Already access to safe water is limited throughout the Himalaya. Change in climate will also affect infectious diseases
transmitted by insects, i.e., vector-borne diseases: examples are malaria, yellow fever, and schistosomiases. Agriculture and horticulture and age-old traditional food crops have become prone to disease (Eriksson, 2006). Increase in
atmospheric temperature can accelerate crop growth and consequently shorten the growth period. In cereal crops for example, such changes can lead to poor vernalization (e.g., hastened flowering) and reduced yield. The fruit
orchards of the region have been shifted at higher new areas. Losses are also indicated for the major food grain producing regions of Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh (IPCC, 2007).
The impact
of climate change in the Himalayan region and adjoining plains of major

rivers are increasing extinction rate of floral and faunal species, changing the
rainfall pattern, changing the duration of vegetative growth and maturity
period and overall growth of crop plants. Climate change could cause
irreversible damage to unique forest ecosystems and biodiversity, rendering
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 59
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 60
_____________________________________________________________________________________
several species extinct.
Forests ecosystems require a long response time to adapt to climate change. Climate is projected to change at a faster rate than the capacity of the forest ecosystems
and plant species to adapt. Thus, it is necessary to develop and implement technologies and strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the forest ecosystems to changing climate, but there has been little research on this front. Warming in
the Himalayan region indicate moderate to large-scale shifts in vegetation types, with implications for forest dieback and biodiversity (Ravindranath and Sukumar, 1998).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 60
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 61
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Habitat Destruction: Habitat destruction causes large losses

of biodiversity.
Climate change is a major concern in the Himalayas because of its potential impact on the economy, ecology, and environment of the Himalayas and areas
downstream. It is the home of so many glaciers, rivers and distinct flora and fauna. A wide range of distinct variety of habitats supports great worlds genetic
Destruction, land-use/cover change, land

degradation, forest fire have adversely affected biological resources of the
sub-region induced by climatic change. The various altitudinal zones of the regions are witnessing major biodiversity,
resources of both flora and fauna in their unique ecological province.
ecological and geophysical changes. The increasing unpredictability of weather and the natural catastrophes in the region are clear-cut indicators of marked shift in
weather patterns in the region. Various
control measures and management steps in the form of afforestation,

reforestation, landscape management, tourism management, reducing energy consumption,
increasing energy efficiency, promoting renewable energy technologies, control on greenhouse
emission, prediction model, regular monitoring and more research on related aspects of climate and
biodiversity are needed in order to save the Himalayan region from decline of its wealth present in the forms of natural sources.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 61
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 62
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Himalayan Deforestation: Habitat destruction in the

Himalayas causes large losses of biodiversity.
Pandit et al. 2007
The objective of the Centre was to undertake location specific studies on different issues related to environment and sustainable development.
The concept of the Centre revolves around the idea that the upland areas play a crucial role in the production and regeneration of natural
resources like fresh water, forests, besides sustaining a rich genetic diversity of plant and animal life. These natural resources have increasingly
witnessed ecological stress and as a result there have been both short- and long-term implications on the resource generation capability and the
ecological equilibrium of these ecosystems. Given CISMHE's objectives, an elaborate research programme has been initiated with the help of
grants from Government and public sector undertakings.
http://download.springer.com.proxy.library.vcu.edu/static/pdf/536/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10531-006-90385.pdf?auth66=1396487190_4ccf7a5106972ca0918c3c69cfc94897&ext=.pdf
Deforestation is a primary driver of biotic extinctions in the tropics . The impacts of

these regions contain high concentrations of
globally endemic species. However, the effects of large-scale deforestation on native biotas within the biodiversity hotspot of Himalaya remain poorly
documented. Here we report on an alarming trend of deforestation in the Indian Himalaya and project the
likely consequential extinctions of endemic taxa (species and subspecies) by 2100 across a broad range of
taxonomic groups, including gymnosperms, angiosperms, fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and
mammals. With the current level of deforestation, by 2100 only about 10% of the land area of the Indian Himalaya will be covered by dense forest (>40%
deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots are of particular concern because
canopy cover)a scenario in which almost
a quarter of the endemic species could be wiped out , including
366 endemic vascular plant taxa and 35 endemic vertebrate taxa. We also show that inaccurate reporting of forest cover data by governmental institutions can result in
underestimations of the biological impacts of deforestation, as well as potential miscalculations in land-use decisions (e.g., the construction of hydroelectric dams).
Large-scale conservation efforts, including forest protection and reforestation, are urgently needed
to avoid the impending deforestation-driven biodiversity losses in the Himalaya.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 62
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 63
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Marine Biodiversity: Marine biodiversity in coastal

ecosystems is being ravaged.
Nammalwar, Gowri, and Satheesh 2013
A leading global scientific, technical and medical publisher, providing researchers in academia, scientific institutions and corporate R & D
departments with quality content via innovative information products and services. More than 150 Nobel prize-winners have published with
Springer to the present date. Many of our publications are considered authoritative works in their field, read by academics and students, used by
libraries and universities, academic professionals and practitioners in various branches of industry.
http://download.springer.com.proxy.library.vcu.edu/static/pdf/524/chp%253A10.1007%252F978-3-642-382000_28.pdf?auth66=1396487885_1073a4e6592bb00357774656c3b0fdd5&ext=.pdf
The sustainability of coastal zone is a growing concern worldwide.
There is rapid ongoing destruction of many of the marine
Siltation
and nutrition rich discharges from agriculture, waste discharges from
industries, and urbanizations are among the most important causes of coastal
resources degradation. The major underlying factor is the rapid population growth that is taking place in most tropical countries. The
and coastal resources essential to human beings throughout the third world countries.
coasts are particularly venerable and often experience the highest growth rate of more than 5 %/year. Coastal degradation cannot be solved within the traditional
sectors like fisheries and shipping. What is required are ICZM and projects, to address all the factors that have impacts on coastal zones. Major steps have been taken
in several countries to halt negative trends which will be implemented ICZM programs that will address the coastal resource user conflicts (Clark 1996; Colin and
David 1997; Ramachandran 2001). In
India, as rapid development and population continues in coastal areas,

increasing demands are expected on natural resources and on the remaining natural habitats along
environmental degradation and over exploitation

will erode marine and coastal biodiversity, undermine productivity, and
intensify socioeconomic conflicts over the increasingly scarce resources of the
coastal areas. Current sectorial approaches to the management of coastal and marine resources have generally not proven, capable of conserving the
the coast. Unless corrective measures are undertaken,
marine and coastal biological diversity. This problem is more serious in Indian context that has a long coastline of 8,118 km with exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of
Since these
regions form a vital link between the terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems, their conservation is essential to maintain the
ecological balance and biodiversity.
2.5 million km2. This zone suffers from the absence of an integrated attention for conservation and development.
A well-defined biodiversity lessons learnt in other regions of the
world is proposed for implementation in several different types of regional scale coastal marine ecosystems. Various conservation and management strategies for
sustainable use of coastal marine biodiversity are suggested for socioeconomic development in India.
Threats to marine biodiversity could
habitat loss, population, pollution, tourism, natural

disasters, and over exploitation. Destruction of thousands of mangrove forests and coastal wetlands for the construction of
be categorized which include;
aquaculture farms in certain coastal states were reported. Besides these threats, the coral
reefs are also subjected to man-made

pollution such as heavy metals, fertilizers, and sewage and industrial wastes. Together, the
unintended consequences of over fishing, by-catches, and habitat degradation can alter the very
biodiversity, productivity, and resilience of marine ecosystems on which economically valuable
species and fisheries depend (Menon and Pillai 1996).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 63
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 64
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Western India: Biodiversity in western India is being

severely undermined by development.
Khan 1997
Environment Systems & Decisions addresses the needs and perspectives of infrastructure owner/operators, engineers, environmental
professionals, and risk managers through technical articles, editorials, interviews, and news columns. The journal contains elements applicable to
researchers and to education and training of technology and environmental experts across disciplines, including specialist and generalist training,
regulators and policy makers, and public information including risk communication.
http://download.springer.com.proxy.library.vcu.edu/static/pdf/712/art%253A10.1023%252FA%253A1018501411555.pdf?auth66=1396487812_
962e80ed8430f7e4ae316be5fa043c90&ext=.pdf
The library of life, i.e. biodiversity, is on fire. The fire must be extinguished before even more treasure, yet to be
discovered is lost beyond recovery. Together with sound scientific advice, dialogue and learning, democratic political decisions will ultimately determine our ability to
safeguard nature's richness. Biodiversity
covers the variety of all the genes, species and ecosystems which are
found on our planet. Although approximately 1.4 million species have been described in the
literature, it is estimated that there are at least 510 million and perhaps as many as 100 million
species. Most of these are in the tropical forests. Human encroachment is driving many of these species to extinction. Although the full consequences of species
loss are unknown, there are compelling scientific, ethical and economic reasons for conserving the Earth's many life forms.
In India, the
western Ghats are among the ecologically richest regions , next only to the Himalayas in the diversity
of their biological species (Gadgil, 1984). The area's geological history and the relatively limited width of its hill ranges, which are separated by narrow passes, have
contributed to a high degree of endemism (Ahmedullah and Nayar, 1987). Its climate
and rainfall patterns have produced a

variety of ecological niches with unique plant and animal species. Of the 15 000 plant species recorded so far, 4000 are
endemic to the region as are 75% of the reptiles and amphibians (Daniels, 1992). The western Ghats is also recognized as a center of origin of several cultivated
plants, the area recording the progenitors of pepper, cardamum, ginger, turmeric, mango, jackfruit, ragi (Clusin coracana) and a variety of other millets (Gadgil, 1984).
It is a gene center for several orchid species and also has a high percentage of medicinal plants. Its ecological diversity is represented in the fragmented remnants of
the original multispecies Shola forest. Each such forest is now no more than 20 km2, which is indicative of the pressures that the region has been subjected to during
The biological diversity of the western

Ghats is not only important in itself but also as the resource base for the
diverse human communities who live in the region. The biodiversity of the desert
the last century. The region is also rich in iron, manganese and bauxite ores.
ecosystem is intimately associated with the habitat diversity. Each one of the various habitats and
landforms in the desert supports distinctive types of plants.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 64
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 65
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Civilization and Wealth: Biodiversity is the basis of human

civilization and wealth.
Khan 1997
Environment Systems & Decisions addresses the needs and perspectives of infrastructure owner/operators, engineers, environmental
professionals, and risk managers through technical articles, editorials, interviews, and news columns. The journal contains elements applicable to
researchers and to education and training of technology and environmental experts across disciplines, including specialist and generalist training,
regulators and policy makers, and public information including risk communication.
http://download.springer.com.proxy.library.vcu.edu/static/pdf/712/art%253A10.1023%252FA%253A1018501411555.pdf?auth66=1396487812_
962e80ed8430f7e4ae316be5fa043c90&ext=.pdf
Biological diversity is the foundation upon which human civilizations are

built. Thousands of species of plants and animals supported the development of early societies,
providing the basis for the evolution from a hunting and gathering subsistence to agricultural and
industrial organizations. Not only are genetic resources important for crop species, but hundreds of cases have been documented concerning the
medical or industrial value of plant and animal species. There is great scope for the systematic exploitation of biological diversity, provided this resource is maintained
until human technological capacity can make use of it. In agriculture alone, it
is estimated that prospective breakthroughs in

genetic engineering will generate products, worth some $150 billion per year, before the end of the
present century, through contributions to new vaccines, hormones, bacterial feeds, anabolic
steroids, pesticides, nitrofixed osmoregulation and nitrofixed cereal enzymes, etc. These will enable
humankind to achieve a quantum jump in its capacity to feed hungry people.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 65
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 66
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Species Collapse: Many species will be driven extinct by

climate change.
Thomas et al. 2004
Nature is a prominent interdisciplinary scientific journal. It was first published on 4 November 1869. It was ranked the worlds most cited by the
Science Edition of the 2010 Journal Citation Reports and is widely regarded as one of the few remaining academic journals that publish original
research across a wide range of scientific fields. Nature is a weekly international journal publishing the finest peer-reviewed research in all fields
of science and technology on the basis of its originality, importance, interdisciplinary interest, timeliness, accessibility, elegance and surprising
conclusions. Nature also provides rapid, authoritative, insightful and arresting news and interpretation of topical and coming trends affecting
science, scientists and the wider public.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/n6970/abs/nature02121.html
Climate change over the past 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level
extinction3. Using projections of species distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earths
terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we
predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that
1537% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be
committed to extinction . When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming
scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These
estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to
decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 66
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 67
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Extinction: Humans are so dependent on biodiversity that its

loss means extinction.
Mittermeier, Turner, Larsen, Brooks, and Gascon 2011
Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is irreversible. Human activities have
What are the

consequences of this loss? Most obvious among them may be the lost opportunity for future
resource use. Scientists have discovered a mere fraction of Earths species (perhaps fewer than 10%, or even 1%) and understood the biology of even
fewer (Novotny et al. 2002). As species vanish, so too does the health security of every
human. Earths species are a vast genetic storehouse that may harbor a cure for cancer, malaria, or the next new pathogen cures waiting to be discovered.
elevated the rate of species extinctions to a thousand or more times the natural background rate (Pimm et al. 1995).
Compounds initially derived from wild species account for more than half of all commercial
medicines even more in developing nations (Chivian and Bernstein 2008). Natural forms, processes, and ecosystems provide blueprints
and inspiration for a growing array of new materials, energy sources, hi-tech devices, and other innovations (Benyus 2009). The current loss of species has been
compared to burning down the worlds libraries without knowing the content of 90% or more of the books.
lose
With loss of species, we
the ultimate source of our crops and the genes we use to improve agricultural resilience, the
the basis of the structure and function of

the ecosystems that support humans and all life on Earth (McNeely et al. 2009). Above and beyond
inspiration for manufactured products, and
material welfare and livelihoods, biodiversity contributes to security, resiliency, and freedom of choices and actions (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Less
tangible, but no less important, are the cultural, spiritual, and moral costs inflicted by species extinctions. All societies value species for their own sake, and wild
plants and animals are integral to the fabric of all the worlds cultures (Wilson 1984). The road to extinction is made even more perilous to people by the loss of the
broader ecosystems that underpin our livelihoods, communities, and economies (McNeely et al. 2009). The
loss of coastal wetlands and

mangrove forests, for example, greatly exacerbates both human mortality and economic damage from
tropical cyclones (Costanza et al. 2008; Das and Vincent 2009), while disease outbreaks such as the 2003 emergence of
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in East Asia have been directly connected to trade in wildlife
for human consumption (Guan et al. 2003).
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 67
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 68
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Natural Capital: The cost of a loss of biodiversity is natural

capital.
Loss of
biodiversity on land in the past decade alone is estimated to be costing the
global economy $500 billion annually (TEEB 2009). Reduced diversity may also reduce
Other consequences of biodiversity loss, more subtle but equally damaging, include the deterioration of Earths natural capital.
resilience of ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them. For example, more diverse coral reef
communities have been found to suffer less from the diseases that plague degraded reefs elsewhere (Raymundo et al. 2009). As Earths climate
changes, the roles of species and ecosystems will only increase in their importance to humanity (Turner et al. 2009). In many respects, conservation is local. People
generally care more about the biodiversity in the place in which they live. They also depend upon these ecosystems the most and, broadly speaking, it is these areas
over which they have the most control. Furthermore, we believe that all biodiversity is important and that every nation, every region, and every community should do
Extinction is a global
phenomenon, with impacts far beyond nearby administrative borders. More
everything possible to conserve their living resources. So, what is the importance of setting global priorities?
practically, biodiversity, the threats to it, and the ability of countries to pay for its conservation vary around the world. The vast majority of the global conservation
budget perhaps 90% originates in and is spent in economically wealthy countries (James et al. 1999). It is thus critical that those globally flexible funds available
in the hundreds of millions annually be guided by systematic priorities if we are to move deliberately toward a global goal of reducing biodiversity loss. The
establishment of priorities for biodiversity conservation is complex, but can be framed as a single question. Given the choice, where should action toward reducing the
loss of biodiversity be implemented first?
The field of conservation planning addresses this question and revolves around a framework of vulnerability and irreplaceability (Margules and Pressey 2000).
Vulnerability measures the risk to the species present in a region if the species and ecosystems that are highly threatened are not protected now, we will not get
another chance in the future. Irreplaceability measures the extent to which spatial substitutes exist for securing biodiversity. The number of species alone is an
inadequate indication of conservation priority because several areas can share the same species. In contrast, areas with high levels of endemism are irreplaceable. We
must conserve these places because the unique species they contain cannot be saved elsewhere. Put another way, biodiversity is not evenly distributed on our planet. It
is heavily concentrated in certain areas, these areas have exceptionally high concentrations of endemic species found nowhere else, and many (but not all) of these
areas are the areas at greatest risk of disappearing because of heavy human impact.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 68
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 69
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Try or Die: Biodiversity loss is try-or-die, as we must deal

with it now, or risk losing it forever.
The field of conservation planning addresses this question and revolves around a framework of vulnerability and irreplaceability (Margules and Pressey 2000).
if the species and ecosystems that are highly

threatened are not protected now, we will not get another chance in the
future. Irreplaceability measures the extent to which spatial substitutes exist for securing biodiversity. The number of species alone is an inadequate
indication of conservation priority because several areas can share the same species. In contrast, areas with high levels of
endemism are irreplaceable. We must conserve these places because the unique species
they contain cannot be saved elsewhere. Put another way, biodiversity is not evenly
distributed on our planet. It is heavily concentrated in certain areas, these areas have
Vulnerability measures the risk to the species present in a region
exceptionally high concentrations of endemic species found nowhere else, and many (but not all) of
these areas are the areas at greatest risk of disappearing because of heavy human impact.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 69
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 70
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Hotspots: Hotspots are the key to biodiversity.

Threats to hotspots are similar to, although generally more intense than , threats to
biodiversity worldwide . Habitat destruction, projected to remain the dominant threat to terrestrial biodiversity even in an era
of climate change (Sala et al. 2000), is
pervasive in hotspots and driving extinctions
in many (Brooks et al. 2002). The growing impacts of climate change

will be felt worldwide, as altered precipitation and temperature, rising oceans, and climate-driven habitat loss threaten a large fraction of species with extinction (Thomas et al. 2004) and drive desperate human populations to further
environmental degradation (Turner et al. 2010). Other threats are less widespread, but felt severely in particular regions. Introduced predators have devastated island hotspots, where species evolved in the absence of domestic cats and
rats and other invasive predators (Steadman 1995). Introduced plants are having massive impacts on hydrology and biodiversity in some hotspots, particularly those having Mediterranean-type vegetation (Groves and di Castri 1991).
Exploitation for protein (e.g., bushmeat), for medicine, and for the pet trade threatens species in all hotspots, particularly the Guinean forests of West Africa (Bakarr et al. 2001), Madagascar, and hotspots in Southeast Asia (van Dijk
et al. 2000). Chitridiomycosis, a fungal disease, is recognized as a proximate driver of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide (Stuart et al. 2004; Wake and Vredenburg 2008). It may prove to be the most destructive infectious
The establishment and effective

management of protected areas (Bruner et al. 2001) must continue to be the
cornerstone of efforts to halt the loss of biodiversity ,
disease in recorded history, with a substantial effect on the hotspots, which harbor an astonishing 59% of all amphibians as endemics.
both in the hotspots and elsewhere. These areas may be in the form of
national parks or strict biological reserves or may come in a variety of other forms, depending on local context, including indigenous reserves, private protected areas, and community conservation agreements of various kinds. An
overlay of the hotspots with protected areas with defined boundaries from the World Database on Protected Areas (IUCN and WCMC 2009) reveals that 12% of the original area of the 35 hotspots is under some form of protection,
while 6% is classified as IUCN category IIV protected area (which provides a higher degree of protection in terms of constraints on human occupation or resource use). These numbers are underestimates since boundaries for many
protected areas have not been systematically compiled, and they certainly overestimate the land area that is managed effectively. Yet the fraction of hotspots covered is less meaningful than the locations themselves. Efforts to
conserve the hotspots must focus on ensuring long-term persistence of the areas already protected and strategically add new protected areas in the highest priority unprotected habitats that remain intact as indicated by systematic
Changing temperature
and precipitation patterns forces species to move according to movement in their preferred habitat
conditions, yet these movements will often be both difficult for species to undertake and complex for
efforts to identify gaps in protected areas networks (e.g., Rodrigues et al. 2004). Maintaining the resilience of hotspots in the face of climate change is another major challenge.
researchers to predict. Due to the nature of climatic gradients, the distances species must move are likely to be shorter in mountainous terrain and longer in flatter
regions (Loarie et al. 2009). On the other hand, mountains are more likely to have habitat discontinuities that make species dispersal more difficult. Meanwhile,
species tolerance to climate variability can be low (Tewksbury et al. 2008) and changing climates are likely to produce a complex global mosaic of climates shifted in
space, climates which disappear in the future, and entirely novel climates (Williams et al. 2007). To be successful, then, conservation planning must begin to systematically plan actions in both space and time. Protecting the sites
where species currently exist is essential, particularly the Key Biodiversity Areas where species are at greatest current risk (Eken et al. 2004). The hotspots, in fact, harbor 81% of the global total 595 Alliance for Zero Extinction sites
we will not be granted another

chance to save their species later. However, this is only the beginning. We must also
protect habitats 18 R.A. Mittermeier et al. where species will be in the future, as well as provide stepping stones to facilitate movement to these
new ranges. Biologists are increasing their ability to anticipate and plan for these needs (Hannah et al. 2007). To be successful, conservation in a
changing climate will require a very strong focus on ending further habitat
destruction as quickly as possible.
locations harboring the sole remaining populations of the most threatened species (Ricketts et al. 2005). If we lose these sites now,
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 70
GODWIN
BRIEFS
PF APRIL 71
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Hotspots: Hotspots are the key to life.

the hotspots have in the past two decades been confirmed as

priority regions for the efficient conservation of biodiversity more broadly. Collectively, they
Based initially on plant endemism,
harbor more than half of all plant species and 43% of all terrestrial vertebrates as endemics, an even greater proportion of threatened species, and a substantial fraction
of higher-taxonomic diversity. More recent information has revealed that this phenomenal concentration of biodiversity into habitats covering a combined 2.3% of the
worlds land area coincides with disproportionate concentrations of ecosystem services in many of the regions where local communities directly depend on the natural
environment on a daily basis. While conservation in these areas is made difficult by ongoing threats, scarce information, and limited local financial capacity,
conservation here is not optional . Indeed, if we fail in the hotspots, we will lose
nearly half of all terrestrial species regardless of how successful we are
everywhere else, not to mention an almost unthinkably large contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and extensive
human suffering resulting from loss of ecosystem services upon which the
human populations of the hotspots ultimately depend. Ongoing research reviewed here and in the rest of
this volume serves as a rallying cry for greatly augmented funding, research, and political action on behalf of hotspot conservation. The future of
life on Earth depends on it.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
GODWIN BRIEFS
PF APRIL 71

Indian Economic Development vs. Environmental Protection (April 2014 PF Topic)

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Indian Economic Development vs. Environmental Protection (April 2014 PF Topic)

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

GODWIN BRIEFS

Resolved: Prioritizing economic

1. Poverty economic development reduces poverty.

GDP Cure: GDP growth is the best antidote for poverty.

Record GDP growth

of 8.5% per year between 2004-05 and 2009-10

There can be no better

reduced the number of poor by 52 million within five years.

At this pace, India will in 21

India (as Amartya Sen and Jean Dreze did

police, tax collection, education, health, power, water supply in nearly

Chronic Poverty: Poverty becomes more costly and more

Large proportions of those who are poor in

India are stuck in poverty or are chronically poor. The

problem, combined with the fact that many of them will

Social conflict may find easy recruits among the

is not addressed, it may become more intractable and costly later.

Those left behind in a process of

Nutrition: Poverty harms nutrition, leading to severe health

poverty line classes were to spend the

Ill-health, and the need to

Education and Health: Reducing poverty has significant

Children seem to be most impacted by the economic movements of a

Sanitation and access to health care are important

A total of 59% of households that had exited

Linkages with the urban economy might be driving

the escape from poverty in rural India.

General Poverty (Chart): A chart of what causes, maintains,

Intensive farming/crop diversification

Large social expenditure

Off-farm work/new job

High interest borrowing

Improved rural infrastructure

Loss of productive assets

Poor health care facilities

Macro policy change

Larger household size

Lack of job information

Social and class conflict

Forced sale of assets

Information network on job opportunities

Income and Jobs: Increased income and jobs directly

When there are opportunities for

improvements in earnings, through access to decent work or skills, combined

An important pathway out of

average earnings of wage dependent households increase significantly, they will

Specific Solvency: Economic development solves poverty

policy shift has been of less consequence for agricultural

prioritize three dimensions:

Diversification and the development

social infrastructure to raise agricultural productivity

Public investment in less developed and remote areas where poverty

access to institutional credit

Healthcare Access: There is a strong need for healthcare

households in India do not have medical insurance,

The importance of publicly available, good quality

health care to enable greater access to health services cannot be

public primary health care infrastructure is

inadequate and grossly underutilized owing to its dismal

(ibid). Further, [] in most public health centers which provide primary

healthcare services, drugs and

rural system has

health care is provided by unqualified practitioners in the private sector. Over

Healthcare Access: There is a strong need for healthcare