1) INTRODUCTION

The weather seems to be worst some time. Some the day will absolutely hot while other
are very cold. In Malaysia the weather can change without any sign either raining heavily or
sunny hot. Weather conditions influence human behavior and the choices people make. Icecream sales, success of a garage sale, crime rates, school truancy rates, church attendance,
and even stock market returns, are all affected to a varying extent by weather conditions. In
many cases, the ways in which weather conditions affect behavior have been researched,
documented, and analyzed.
2) AIM
There are several aims for doing this topic:
-

To make preparation for the temperature and weather

To avoid any unwanted accident daily

3) METHODOLOGY
Using the ideas in statistic,
# Find the mean of the temperature for each month in 2014
# Using appropriate diagram
# Using standard deviation to find the probability of the temperature

PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURE

The first is to gather all the information about the temperature in Banting which is around my
college. The table below shows the temperature in Banting :
DAY/
MONTH
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th
19th
20th
21st
22nd
23rd
24th
25
26th
27th
28th
29th
30th
31st

JAN

FEB

MAC

APR

MAY

JUN

33
34
32
31
31
32
30
32
32
28
32
32
32
31
32
30
31
30
32
29
31
28
32
31
31
32
33
29
33
33
34

34
32
33
35
33
33
33
34
35
34
36
34
34
35
36
34
34
35
33
34
34
37
35
36
33
34
34
35
-

35
34
35
32
35
36
36
36
34
35
37
35
34
34
36
31
33
31
34
33
32
35
35
36
36
35
35
35
33
34
34

33
33
32
33
28
33
33
34
33
32
34
32
33
33
33
32
33
32
33
32
32
35
34
28
33
33
32
32
32
33
-

32
33
33
33
35
33
34
31
34
32
33
33
33
31
33
32
29
29
33
31
33
32
31
33
34
33
29
33
31
32
32

32
32
31
30
29
32
33
33
34
33
33
34
34
32
32
34
33
33
33
34
34
34
33
34
33
34
32
33
33
33
-

JU
L
32
33
33
34
32
31
33
32
32
31
31
30
32
33
33
32
32
33
33
34
33
33
33
33
33
34
33
33
30
32
32

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

33
34
33
34
33
31
32
31
33
32
32
30
29
31
31
31
32
31
31
32
32
32
33
31
30
31
31
29
30
32
32

33
32
33
33
33
31
32
32
31
32
31
31
31
29
32
31
32
33
33
30
31
32
32
33
31
32
33
33
32
32
-

32
32
32
29
30
32
32
31
32
34
33
34
34
32
33
34
32
32
32
32
32
31
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
32

31
33
33
34
33
33
30
30
30
32
33
32
31
32
31
29
31
30
34
33
32
32
31
32
32
29
32
32
32
30
-

29
31
32
29
33
32
34
31
34
33
31
33
33
32
31
30
28
33
29
31
32
31
29
31
30
27
31
30
25
29
31

Table 1: Temperature of everyday in for each month in Banting for 2014

*From Accuweather.com

A measure of central tendency is a single value that attempts to describe a set of data by
identifying the central position within that set of data. As such, measures of central tendency
are sometimes called measures of central location. They are also classed as summary
statistics. The mean (often called the average) is most likely the measure of central tendency
that you are most familiar with, but there are others, such as the median and the mode. The
mean, median and mode are all valid measures of central tendency, but under different
conditions, some measures of central tendency become more appropriate to use than others.
The mean (or average) is the most popular and well known measure of central tendency. It
can be used with both discrete and continuous data, although its use is most often with
continuous data (see our Types of Variable guide for data types). The mean is equal to the
sum of all the values in the data set divided by the number of values in the data set. So, if we
have n values in a data set and they have values x1, x2, ..., xn, the sample mean, usually
denoted by (pronounced x bar), is:This formula is usually written in a slightly different
manner using the Greek capitol letter, , pronounced "sigma", which means "sum of...": In
statistics, samples and populations have very different meanings and these differences are
very important, even if, in the case of the mean, they are calculated in the same way.
The mean is essentially a model of your data set. It is the value that is most common. You
will notice, however, that the mean is not often one of the actual values that you have
observed in your data set. However, one of its important properties is that it minimises error
in the prediction of any one value in your data set. That is, it is the value that produces the
lowest amount of error from all other values in the data set.

Calculating the average for each month using:

Mean=

oftemperature
number of day a month

Mean=

Example : Average temperature in January:

973
31

= 31.4

MONTH
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE/C
January
31.4
February
34.3
March
34.5
April
32.5
May
32.3
June
32.8
July
32.4
August
31.6
September
31.9
October
32.1
November
31.6
December
30.8
Table 2 : Average/Mean of the temperature for each month in Banting 2014
After that, finding the standard deviation for each month using Excel 2013. The
step to find the standard deviation are :
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

In Excel 2013, go to the formula

Choose statistic
Select stdev p which mean standard deviation
Select the data for each month in a row.
Press Enter and it will give the value for standard deviation.

Table below will show the average or mean of the temperature with uncertainty

Month

Average temperature with uncertainty/C

January

31.41.50

February

34.31.12

March

34.51.47

April

32.51.41

May

32.31.44

June

32.81.19

July

32.41.01

August

31.61.24

September

31.90.991

October

32.11.05

November

31.61.33

December

30.82.01

Table 3 : Average temperature with uncertainty/C for each month

Next, using data from table above, make a graph as below:

MONTH

JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
DECEMBER

LOWEST

HIGHEST

TEMPERATURE/

TEMPERATURE/

C
32.9
35.4
36.0
33.9
33.7
34.0
33.4
32.8
32.9
33.2
32.9
32.8

C
29.9
33.2
33.0
31.1
30.9
31.6
31.1
30.4
30.9
31.1
30.3
28.9

RANGE (x)

29.9>x>32.9
33.2>x>35.4
33.0>x>36.0
31.1>x>33.9
30.9>x>33.7
31.6>x>34.0
31.1>x>33.4
30.4>x>32.8
30.9>x>32.9
31.1>x>32.9
30.3>x>32.9
28.9>x>32.8

Graph 1 : Average temperature for each month with uncertainty

As we see the graph we know that there will also the range for the temperature that the lowest
it might be to the highest it might get. The graph use to find the temperature can also be in
other form, but this the best one that we should consider.

Then construct table to show clearly the range that the temperature might have

CONCLUSION
Producing weather forecasts in probabilistic form for many weather parameters will require
improvements in, or the implementation of, techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as
ensemble forecasting. Forecasters will need to be trained not only on how to use
probabilistic information in their final forecasts, but also in the diverse requirements of those
who use probability forecasts. In addition, users will require information on how to interpret
and use probabilistic forecast information, needs that must be met if the communication of
uncertainty in weather forecasts is to be effective.

REFERENCES
1) http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2008enhancingweatherinformation_amsstatement.htm
l
2) https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/measures-central-tendency-mean-modemedian.php
3) http://www.braintechllc.com/weatherforecastaccuracy.aspx
4) http://www.meteo.unican.es/en/projects/localForecast
5) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_squares
6)
https://controls.engin.umich.edu/wiki/index.php/Basic_statistics:_mean,_median,_average,_st
andard_deviation,_z-scores,_and_p-value