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Growth
Rob Arnott
OIES Internal Seminar
25th November 2003
3/23/2004
Conclusions
How much more risk are companies taking on?
3/23/2004
Canada
$8.0
Europe
$6.0
$4.0
US
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
$2.0
Asia-Pacific
$0.0
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Reserves Replacement %
Source: Company data, JS Herold
3/23/2004
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
1998
1999
Proved Acquisition Cost ($/boe)
2000
2001
2002
Finding and Development Cost ($/boe)
Source: Company data, JS Herold
3/23/2004
Latin
America
Asia-Pacific
Canada
US
Africa/Middle
East
3/23/2004
80%
69%
60%
47%
40%
40%
20%
0%
-8%
-20%
-40%
-24%
US
Canada
Europe
Africa/Middle Asia-Pacific
East
Source: Company data, Harrison Lovegrove
3/23/2004
ENI
Total
to 2007
to 2008
ExxonMobil
ConocoPhillips
BP
2002-2008
Chevron Texaco
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
20
E and P companies
15
10
5
Majors
0
-5
-10
$3.00
$5.00
$7.00
$9.00
$11.00
$13.00
$15.00
10
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
3%
5%
Small US.-EP
Can.-EP
4
2
0
80%
Can.-Int
Super-EP
Mid US.-EP
US.-Int
Int.-EP
Large US.-EP
Int.-Integrated
100%
Super-majors
120%
140%
160%
180%
3/23/2004
11
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Chevron Texaco
BP
ConocoPhillips
ExxonMobil
Royal Dutch
Shell
Total
ENI
3/23/2004
12
1400
Production mboe/d
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Russia
Total
13
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Russia
Total
14
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Other
Total
15
Production mboe/d
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Other
Total
16
Production mboe/d
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Russia
Total
17
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Russia
Total
18
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Other
Total
19
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Europe
North
America
Africa
Latin
America
AsiaPacific
Middle
East
Other
Total
20
CAGR (%)
Chevron
Texaco
ConocoPhillips
Oil Growth
3/23/2004
ENI
ExxonMobil
Gas Growth
Royal Dutch
Shell
Total
% Gas
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
BP
Chevron Texaco
ConocoPhillips
2002
3/23/2004
ENI
ExxonMobil
2007
Royal Dutch
Shell
Total
3.6 million b/d out of 15.8 million b/d will come from OPEC
in 2007
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
553
Figure show oil production mb/d
628
35.0%
30.0%
270
25.0%
639
719
581
20.0%
15.0%
220
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
BP
Chevron Texaco
2002
ConocoPhillips
ENI
ExxonMobil
Royal Dutch
Shell
Total
2007
Source: Company data, OIES
3/23/2004
23
24
25
26