Demantra:

Demantra SIG

Beyond Forecasting
PRESENTED BY:

Michael Pearson
Director, SCM Practice

FEBRUARY 2009

Optimum Solutions

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2008 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Optimum Snapshot
SERVICE OFFERINGS
Core Competencies:
Business Intelligence / EPM
Customer Relationship Mgmt
Financials
Human Capital Management
Supply Chain Management
Centers of Excellence:
E-Business
PeopleSoft
Demantra
Oracle Business Intelligence
Industry Leading Methodologies
RapidSolutionsSM
OptimumMETHODSM

Optimum Solutions is a full-service consulting firm,

specializing in enterprise system implementation
and integration solutions.

San Francisco
Corporate
Headquarters

Denver

Chicago
Eastern Region
Headquarters Washington D.C.

Los Angeles
Atlanta
Dallas

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

A Full Service Partner

The following represents a full spectrum of resources we can bring to your strategic initiative:

BUSINESS PROCESS EXPERTISE

Customer Relationship Mgmt
Demand Management
Financial Management
Human Capital Mgmt
Supply Chain Mgmt

SERVICE PROGRAMS
Implementation & Upgrade Assessments
ROI Analysis
Technical Infrastructure Planning
Project JumpStart Capability
Business Process Optimization
Customized Training
TECHNICAL EXPERTISE
Planning & Architecture
Hardware/Software Assessment
& Configurations
Custom Development
Database Administration
& Optimization
Interface Development
Data Conversion Automation
System Performance Tuning
Middleware / Integration

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

ORACLE EXPERTISE
Certified Advantage Partner
Fusion Council Member
OptimumMETHODSM & RapidSolutionsSM
Member of the E-Business,
Process-based Orientation
PeopleSoft, Fusion, Business
Stresses Knowledge Transfer
Intelligence & Fusion Middleware
Incorporates Industry Best Practices
Product Focus Groups
Thorough User Defined System Testing
OAUG Three-Star Partner
End User Preparation - Training & Procedures

Our Clients

OptimumLABSSM
Upgrade & Implementation Lab
Support Services
Demonstration &
Training Environments
Testing Facilities

OptimumTOOLKITSM
Process Analysis & Design Tools
Requirements Database
Customization Templates
Test Script Library
Project Administration Tools

INDUSTRY FOCUS
Communications & Media
Energy
Financial Services
Health & Life Sciences
Higher Education
Products
Professional Services
Retail
Software
Technology

Demantra Forecasting
Overview

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2008 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Evolve

Start
anywhere

Evolve at your own pace to a

best in class solution

Forecast based on attributes and

product characteristics
Compute promotional lifts and
analyze impact of demand drivers
Assumption based forecasting

Leverage POS and channel data

Leverage POS and channel data

Forecast new product

introductions

Forecast new product

introductions

Collaborate with customers

Use advanced statistics and
causal factors
Complex alerts and custom
worksheets

Eliminate
spreadsheets

Collaborate with customers

Use advanced statistics and
causal factors
Complex alerts and custom
worksheets

Manage rolling forecasts

Manage rolling forecasts

Manage rolling forecasts

Collaborate with all constituents

on one number

Collaborate with all constituents

on one number

Collaborate with all constituents

on one number

Use basic statistics, alerts, and

seeded worksheets

Use basic statistics, alerts, and

seeded worksheets

Use basic statistics, alerts, and

seeded worksheets

Tailor worksheets for individual

users

Tailor worksheets for individual

users

Tailor worksheets for individual

users

From less complex to best in class

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

A Completely Integrated Solution

Promotions & Trade Management

Demand & Replenishment Planning

Oracle Demantra
Predictive Trade Planning

Oracle Demantra
Demand Management

Promotion definition & management

Lift computation, decomposition, and display
Promotion impact, ROI analysis
Deductions &
Settlement
Management

Promotion
Optimization

Suggested optimum
promotions to
maximize ROI

Reconciliation of
deductions and
payments with
performance proof

Statistical, attribute-based forecasting

Monitoring and responding to demand
Collaborative planning
Advanced
Forecasting &
Demand Modeling

Promotional lifts
Demand shaping
Cannibalization &
halo effects

New release planning

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Real Time S&OP

Balanced supply and

demand

Stock replenishment

Demantra Momentum Continues

Consumer Packaged Goods

Medical Devices

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Consumer Durables

Retail/Wholesale

High Tech

Media & Entertainment

Traditional vs. Next Generation Forecasting

Traditional Forecasting - Best Fit
Forecast

Historical Data

(Best Fit)

(Shipment / Order History)

Forecast Methods

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Forecast Analytics
Superior Bayesian-Markov Analytics
Bayesian Estimator
Historical Data

Forecast

Bayesian
Combined Model

Multiple Causal
Factors

Estimators Models
Bayesian mix modeling
15 model library
Auto-regressive moving average (ARMA)
Regression integrated winters
Logistic and logarithmic models
Ridge regression, Markov chain regression
Intermittent regression
Unlimited causal factors
Seasonality, weather, market indicators
Base + price + multi-event lift decomposition
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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Promotion effects

Cross-product and cross-location effects

Pre and post event
Automatic outlier detection
Trend long, short, dampening
Missing data interpolation
Shape modeling and auto-correction
Regime change
Fit and forecast validation

Alternate Sources of Historical Demand

Most companies use Order or
Shipment history
True Demand
Cancellations
Point of Sale (DSR)

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Start
anywhere

Point of Sale Example

Rapid 8 Week JDE Upgrade and Demantra Implementation Helps
Springs Creative to Meet Strategic Goals
Springs Creative recently spun off of Springs Global where they were
using Manugistics for Demand Planning integrated into an older
version of JD Edwards. They needed to create an enhanced
"We selected Optimum
because they are the experts on
Demantra solutions.
T. Ferrara
Director of IT
Springs Creative

environment that would enable them to meet their strategic objectives.

Benefits:

8 week rapid upgrade of JDE environment and implementation

of Demantra while remaining on SQL Server

Superior Forecast Accuracy

Substantially improved processes for New Product Introductions
Enhanced ability to forecast demand amidst seasonality

ORACLE SOLUTION
Demantra 7.2.0.1
Manugistics replacement
JDE Upgrade to latest release
SQL Server Database

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Enterprise adoption of the Demantra solution and the ability

to expand

Vendor Managed Inventories (VMI)

VMI started out in the grocery
industry
Jack of All Games (JOAG)
VTech

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Start
anywhere

What are Causal Factors?

Oracles Definition of Causal Factor:

Causal factors provide information about historical events that are expected to
recur in the future

Causal factors cause demand to deviate from a norm

Causal Factors can be treated as time varying quantities that affect demand
Engine establishes a relationship between sales and each of these causal
factors (Correlation)

In the future, engine predicts the demand by multiplying these estimated

coefficients with causal factor value

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Causal Factors
Pharmavite

Weather
Jack of All Games (JOAG)

Location, Proximity
Fairfax Media

Important Events
Sportsmans Warehouse

Hunting Season
Texas Instruments

Start of School

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Start
anywhere

Annual Budgeting Process

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Fairfax Media

Silgan Plastics

Start
anywhere

Forecasting Resources
Wendys

Receives POS data from over 1300

stores captured in 30 minute
increments

Utilizes over 800 million records

Causal factors new products,
in store displays, & advertising
information

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Start
anywhere

Annual Budgeting Process

Demantra Reduces Silgans Budget Process by 75%
Optimum assisted Silgan Plastics with the implementation of the
Demantra Demand Management solution. The first phase of the
implementation covered their annual sales and budgeting process.
Optimum's ability to understand
our complexity allowed us to
achieve our strategic objectives
resulting in a 75% reduction in time
in our processes."

Silgan Plastics was able to achieve many benefits and savings, in both
time and monetary savings, with Demantra.
Benefits:

Reduced budget process by 75%

Ryan Flynn,
Oracle Project Manager
Silgan Plastics

Improved their forecast accuracy

Ability to to forecast and review the budget at different levels in
product and customer hierarchies

Implemented a workflow driven collaborative process

ORACLE SOLUTION
Demantra 7.2.0.1
Oracle 10g Database
Oracle Release 11.5.10
750 Users

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Developed a process to handle items not yet in Oracle

Positioned for future growth and flexibility

Questions & Answers

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Contact Information

Quite simply, Optimum

is the best ERP implementer
in the marketplace.
George Abatjoglou
CFO, ChartOne, Inc.

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC

Michael Pearson
Director, SCM Practice
312.674.4700 ext 8051
michael_pearson@optimumsolutions.com

Thank You

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2009 Optimum Solutions Group, LLC