Flagler College professor warns against predicting

Cuba's future
staugustine.com /news/school-news/2015-01-09/flagler-college-professor-warns-against-predictingcubas-future
By JAKE MARTIN
jake.martin@staugustine.com
Cuba may only be 90 miles south of Key West, but for the past 54 years it might as well have been half a
world away.
History loiters in Havana streets in the form of reconfigured 1957 Chevys, colonial buildings and red tape.
Such are remnants of the final days of its diplomatic ties with the United States, formally ended in 1961.
Tracey Eaton was first sent to Cuba in 1994 by the Dallas Morning News to try and establish a bureau in
Havana. About 28 trips later, in 2000, they were given one.
Eaton ran the bureau until 2005 when the paper had to close it for cost-cutting and re-focusing purposes.
Now a professor at Flagler College, he has remained interested in Cuba for its cultural quirks, political
perseverance and historical strangeness.
It changes, but it is a time warp, he said. You get the sense that youre trapped in some kind of relic of
the Cold War.
He was in Havana on Dec. 17 when President Obama announced the United States would restore
diplomatic relations with Cuba.
Sen. Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American, called the announcement the latest in a long line of failed attempts
by President Obama to appease rogue regimes at all cost.
Many Cubans in Havana had a different take.
I went out on the streets and I followed a group of students who were out there celebrating, marching and
chanting, Eaton said.
He interviewed several Cubans, young and old, and found overwhelming support for the decision. Still,
where all the chips will ultimately fall is anything but clear.
I think trying to predict whats going to happen in Cuba is a hazardous business, he said.
Eaton said those who are pro-embargo fear the U.S. is further enriching the socialist government and
giving it resources to stay in power.
There are also people who say normal relations with Cuba will flood the island with people, ideas and
money and that, in itself, will bring about change, he said.
In terms of Cuban support for its own government, he saw big differences along generational lines.
I think younger people really see the socialist system as a failed government. A lot of them, rather than try

to fight against it, fight with their feet. They just leave, he said.
Among older generations, there are hardcore supporters of the Cuban regime still holding out.
There are some who still view the United States as the enemy, he said. But, I think as time passes,
support for the Cuban government dwindles.
He said economic independence as a result of trade and travel could undermine the socialist government
as ordinary Cubans start to see prosperity and depend less on bureaucracy.
I can see big conflicts happening because Cuban officials want to stay in power and the system doesnt
entirely work, but theres nothing to replace it, he said. Its not a system that has a backup.
Even if Cubans say they want to have an election and establish a democracy, political opposition groups
run small due to years of repression and lack of outlets.
Dialogue may be a good first step toward normalization with the U.S., but there remains a half centurys
worth of issues to sort out. Eaton identified fugitives, political prisoners, confiscated properties and
differences over human rights, democracy and immigration as main areas of contention.
This is going to be a process of years, not months, he said. ... You dont untangle this overnight.
The Obama administration hasnt released the names of 53 political dissidents that are supposed to be
freed as a part of the renewal. In the meantime, Cuba secured the return of three spies.
Aside from political reciprocations to sort out, there also is the question of what could be lost culturally if
relations cool.
I dont think people want to see a McDonalds or a Starbucks on every corner. They want Cuba to remain
authentic, he said. They dont want it to look like some sort of satellite of Miami.
While interested in controlling their own destiny, Eaton said Cubans also have an affinity for American
culture unlike other Latin American countries. They watch Friends and The Big Bang Theory.
Its wild how some Cubans get their movies and their programs, he said.
Its almost like a subscription service. Rather than viewing shows and movies on the Internet and paying
by credit card, runners go from home to home handing customers USB drives with pre-loaded content.
Brain surgeons might make only $60 a month in Cuba but those TV program and movie entrepreneurs
make hundreds of dollars, he said.
Much of life in Cuba is improvised in this way. Cars are often repaired with whatevers around.
Whether that same attitude will be applied to the countrys politics is yet to be determined.
Its probably not as bad as some people paint it, but its probably not as good as some Cubans want it to
be, he said.
Eaton will return to Cuba this summer and is interested in using video to document ordinary Cubans in the
midst of potential change.