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Capture Recapture
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Capture Recapture
Review
Probability
Axioms, random variables,
Densities, distributions
Expected value, variance, skewness
Normal theory
f (u)du = 1
Is it helpful?
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Capture Recapture
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Capture Recapture
Statistical Inference:
Unknown (Fixed or Random?)
X Observed: Fixed and known
Inference for Guess in a formal or disciplined way
Philosophical question: If is unknown is it fixed or random?
Subjective or Objective reality; Bayesian or Frequentist
Inference required through [statistical/quantitative] reasoning/thinking
Struggle with the nature of evidence and truth in the face of uncertainty
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Capture Recapture
A Wildlife Study
N
Wildlife Population - Caribou
Population size: N
Capture Caribou and tag them: T
Release the caribou
Wait
N T
Recapture n Caribou
n t
t Hypergeometric[N , T , n]
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Capture Recapture
t Hypergeometric[N , T , n]
PrN (t) =
> phyper(c(2,6),20,80,10)
N t
T
nt
t
N
n
Suppose N = 100
We tag T = 20
Recapture n = 10
[1] 0.6812201
[2] 0.9996083
> phyper(2,20,80,10)-phyper(1,20,80,10)
[1] 0.3181706
> phyper(6,20,80,10)-phyper(5,20,80,10)
[1] 0.00354136
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Capture Recapture
The Density
Plot PrN (t)
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.10
0.15
0.05
HyperGeometric Probability
0.00
10
t # tagged
Suppose tobs = 6
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Capture Recapture
0.30
0.20
0.10
t # tagged
10
10
0.20
0.10
N=40
0.00
0.20
N=60
0.10
t # tagged
0.00
t # tagged
10
0.00
HyperGeometric Probability
HyperGeometric Probability
0.30
0.20
0.10
HyperGeometric Probability
N=80
0.00
HyperGeometric Probability
N=100
10
t # tagged
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Capture Recapture
t # tagged
10
0.4
10
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
N=25
N=30
t # tagged
t # tagged
0.20
10
0.0
0.10
0.00
HyperGeometric Probability
HyperGeometric Probability
0.10
0.20
HyperGeometric Probability
N=35
0.00
HyperGeometric Probability
N=40
10
t # tagged
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Capture Recapture
The Likelihood
Wait a minute!!
Why are we plotting t vs PrN (t) for various N
Lets plot N vs PrN (t) at t = tobs = 6
0.25
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.00
HyperGeometric Probability[Likelihood]
40
60
80
100
N Poulation Size
Capture Recapture
The Likelihood
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
HyperGeometric Probability[Likelihood]
20
40
60
80
100
N Poulation Size
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Capture Recapture
Evidence of discrimination
supervisors
Promote
Hold
Male
21
3
24
Female
14
10
24
35
13
48
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Capture Recapture
Evidence of discrimination
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Capture Recapture
Modelling
48
35
13
24
X = 21
Evidence of bias
x
P(X=x)
18
0.24
19
0.16
20
0.07
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