Project NOAH Open-File Reports

Vol. 2 (2014), pp. 15-19, ISSN 2362 7409

PROJECT NOAH ClimateX: Accurate Rain Forecasting for the Philippines

CP Davida,b,c, BA Racomaa,b,c, Irene Crisologo a,b,c,
a

FloodNet (ClimateX)
Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards
c
National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City
b

Fig. 1 ClimateX provides the 4-hour rainfall forecast in the Project NOAH website. It also provides nowcast via its Twitter account
@climatexph. It can be accessed at www.climatex.ph.

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What is a ClimateX forecast?

Fig. 2 ClimateX website screenshot of percentage chance of rain of a particular area.

ClimateX forecasts both the chance of rain, and the amount of rain that comes along with it
whenever applicable.
The chance and amount can be in 2 formats:
Number: 80% chance of 3.5mm
Interpreted: HIGH chance of MODERATE rain

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What is the source of ClimateX forecasts?

Fig. 3 PAGASA Doppler images can also be viewed on the ClimateX website.

The forecasts mainly come from Doppler Weather Radar data. Different Weather Radars located
around the country detect the location of rainclouds, as well as the amount of rain they bring.
Besides the Doppler Weather Radar data, the following data sources are also considered
Historical data
Time of day
Nearby rain gauges
Location of ITCZ

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How far in the future can these forecasts be?

Fig. 4 Image from the Mactan Doppler station. The color scale shows the probability of rainfall in a particular area.

Forecasts are made for up to four (4) hours into the future for all major cities and municipalities
that are covered by the PAGASA RADAR network. This is particularly applicable for
thunderstorms which can appear within an hour and last anywhere from 1 to 4 hours

How accurate are the forecasts?

An independent accuracy assessment was done by the COGNOS team of IBM Philippines
Two accuracy measures were made: accuracy and success ratio
ACCURACY
Accuracy is the total number of correct forecasts over the total number of forecasts.
By saying correct forecasts, we have two types of correct forecasts
Forecasted YES rain, and upon observation it did RAIN
Forecasted NO rain, and upon observation it did NOT RAIN
This accuracy metric is biased since it is very easy to forecast NO rain with a high degree of
accuracy.
Using this method we get a total of 84% accuracy.
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SUCCESS RATIO
Success ratio is the total number of correct Forecast YES rain (forecast YES, upon
observation it did rain) over the total number of Forecast YES rain.
This metric only checks the accuracy for the times we forecast that it will rain, disregarding
the NO rain forecasts.
Using this metric, we get an 80% success ratio.

Where was ClimateX developed?

It was developed in house in the Environment Monitoring Laboratory in the National Institute of
Geological Sciences, UP Diliman. It is one of the component projects of DOST PROJECT NOAH.
Most data is provided by PAGASA, while software and hardware support is provided by DOSTASTI (Advanced Science and Technlogy Institute).
It is the first of its kind in the country. Continuous development is being undertaken to extend
the forecasting and make it even more accurate.

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