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Perspective
ABOUT THE BOUTIQUE: REVIEW OF THIRD QUARTER 2009
BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE
35
Award in 2009. He has appeared on
28.35
30
CNBC and Bloomberg television, and n 12/31/08 Yields
has been quoted in a range of national 25 n 9/30/09 Yields
19.43
14.29
15
10.45
10.31
10
7.48
management experience.
4.85
3.63
3.89
3.04
2.34
5
2.12
2.16
1.55
0
U.S. Treasuries Agencies MBS ABS Corporates CMBS High Yield BB B CCC Ca-D
The divergent signals emanating from the equity and Treasury bond markets demonstrate the tug of war between the V-shapers and
the double dippers (W, U or L-shaped). The equity markets are discounting a sharp sustainable economic recovery following the first
global synchronized economic contraction in the post-war period. The Great Recession involves a major financial/banking crisis
where significant balance sheet adjustments in the financial and consumer sector are in the early stages. The debt super cycle that
was built up over the 25 years through 2007 likely fostered what Ben Bernanke coined as “The Great Moderation” as debt expansion
created artificial growth masked by low volatility.
Many reasons have been cited as to the causes of this crisis: low interest rates, lax regulation, greedy bankers, etc. One of the most
fundamentally compelling causes of this financial crisis and maybe the one with most popular support is unsustainable leverage. The
story goes likes this: consumers went
on a debt financed spending spree Exhibit 3: Total U.S. Debt/GDP
to finance an impossible standard 400 2009
2007 363%
of living, while the financial system 347%
leveraged up significantly to magnify 350
what in effect were low asset yields.
Most bulls argue the deleveraging 300 1997
247%
process is well underway, which seems
U.S. Debt/GDP
1986
to be the consensus view. 250
214%
To put this into some perspective let’s look at the last few decades. Exhibit 5 shows the trailing 10-year cumulative payroll growth
BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE
going back to 1959. Prior to the 2000s, the trailing payroll growth only slipped below 15 million during the recession of the early 80s,
when it bottomed at about 12 million jobs added over the previous 10 years. The 70s, 80s and 90s each had job creation in excess
of 18 million. The first decade
of the 2000s is shaping up to Exhibit 5: Trailing 10 Year Payroll Growth (Sep)
be a decade where there was 25,000
negative job creation. Between
January 2000 and September
2009, 400,000 net new jobs 20,000
Payroll Growth (000s)
Dec 63
Dec 67
Dec 71
Dec 75
Dec 79
Dec 83
Dec 87
Dec 91
Dec 95
Dec 99
Dec 03
Dec 07
jobless nature of the most
recent decade.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
As you know our view has been that this recession is not a typical recession that was caused by an inventory correction or the
Fed tightening to slow an overheating economy. This economic contraction is the result of excessive debt and an overleveraged
economy that is unable to service an unsustainable debt that resulted in this financial/banking crisis. The unwinding of this 25-year
debt super cycle will entail deleveraging and balance sheet repair processes that will take years to fix. However, our political
leadership continues to try to solve this excessive debt problem with more debt, which will cause more problems in the future.
Spending programs like Cash for Clunkers and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer’s tax credit and other Keynesian programs are not
sustainable. The evidence is clear that such programs just pull demand forward as evidenced as car sales collapsed (to 9.2 million
annualized in September from 14. 1 million in August) after the Cash for Clunkers program expired. The homebuyer tax credit is set
to expire at the end of November and many in Washington not only want to extend it, but raise it to $15,000 and open it up to all
homebuyers’ not just-first time buyers.
A key question that must be considered is can this economy stand on its own without government support and spending programs.
The government has lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to support the system and counter the economic contraction. The flood
of government largesse has benefited Wall Street, “Too Big To Fail” (TBTF) institutions and the financial markets, but done little
for Main Street as the unemployment situation worsens and home foreclosures accelerate. The problems continue to mount as
indicated by such things as the FDIC’s insurance fund (bank failures are approaching 100, which exceeds the total over the last 15
years combined) becoming dangerously low requiring replenishment and talk of the FHA requiring a bailout at some point in the
not-too-distant future.
The inventory restocking part of the equation is entirely dependent on final demand since final demand will determine whether this
inventory build turns into increased consumption or excess inventory.
The most frequently cited strategy every country plans to pursue to get out of this global synchronized contraction is exports. By
definition every country cannot export its way out of the global recession. Which planet is going to do all of this importing? The US
remains the largest export market. Unless US consumers revert back to the “minimum payment mentality” (where you could have
anything you wanted as long as you could make the minimum payment) we do not see the US as being the destination for these
exports.
SEIX PERSPECTIVE Page 4
Employment is critical to getting the US economy growing on a sustainable basis again. While many economists say the unemployment
rate has peaked or is close to peaking the evidence does not support this conclusion, which seems to be based on hope. The most recent
household survey showed that the economy lost 785,000 jobs in September and almost 1.2 million jobs over the last two months. Additionally,
the workweek fell to a record low and were it not for the fact that 571,000 workers dropped out of the labor force (meaning they are no longer
counted) the unemployment rate would have been 10.2% rather than the reported 9.8%. The underemployment rate keeps rising and is
currently at 17% translating into more than 1 out of every 6 Americans either unemployed or underemployed.
Weekly jobless claims are perhaps one of the most followed economic indicators in this crisis. Jobless claims measure the amount of
new filers for unemployment insurance during the previous week. Continuing jobless claims (CJC) simply adds the total amount of people
currently receiving unemployment insurance, which lasts twenty-six weeks. Once that period expires, the person drops from the data. An
important question arises: if CJC declines, can we conclude that the job market is improving or is it actually the opposite (i.e. is it taking
longer to find a job)?
Thanks to a couple of new government programs we can more accurately determine the fate of those receiving their last unemployment
insurance check. On June 2008, the government created the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program (EUC), which pays
unemployment insurance for an additional 20 weeks. On November 2008, the government created the Extended Benefits (EB) program, which
pays unemployment insurance for another 13 weeks. We can look at EUC and EB beneficiaries to determine the state of the unemployed.
Not surprisingly, the media’s and the market obsession with CJC data are forgetting that unemployment in the current economic cycle is lasting
longer than the historical average of less than 26 weeks. Since the S&P 500 low in March 2009, EUC recipients have increased from 2.1 million
to 3.3 million. Furthermore, the amount of EB recipients has increased from 15,000 to 465,000. The amount of people currently receiving
unemployment benefits is over
9.8 million (Exhibit 6), about the Exhibit 6: Total Number of Unemployed Collecting Insurance
same amount as of June 26th, 10
when the CJC “finally turned” for
n Extended benefits (nsa)
the better.
Number of Unemployed (millions)
Our base case remains that once we emerge from “The Great Recession” the US will be mired in an extended period of below trend growth
driven by secular changes in consumer spending/saving and the headwinds of higher taxes, bigger government involvement in the private
sector and more regulation. Washington is making it more difficult and costly for business, particularly for small business, which is the job
creation engine for the US. Washington is addicted to spending and unwilling to conduct prudent or responsible fiscal policy; instead they’re
using this financial crisis and the analogy to The Great Depression to expand the role of government. Only massive tax increases can pay for
this inefficient and wasteful spending; the economy cannot grow its way out of this unprecedented debt expansion. The balance sheet repair
process will continue unabated as the consumer and financial sectors de-leverage thereby resulting in less supply of and demand for credit.
We continue to favor the investment grade corporate bond sector. The easy money has been made in risky assets and security selection will
take on an increasingly important role in managing portfolios. A retracement of some of the unprecedented rally in 2009 is likely with the
riskiest sectors/asset classes most vulnerable as inevitable profit taking can turn positive momentum negative. US investors have become
painfully aware that equity returns are entry and exit point sensitive.
The Federal Reserve will keep rates very low for an extended period of time as Chairman Bernanke uses the playbook he devised studying
The Great Depression where he believes the central bank raised rates prematurely. It will be interesting to monitor the speeches and public
statements of the regional Federal Reserve Presidents, who tend be less dovish as a group.
BOUTIQUE PERSPECTIVE SEIX PERSPECTIVE Page 5
®RidgeWorth Investments. This perspective was prepared for institutional clients and prospective institutional clients of RidgeWorth
Investments. Neither RidgeWorth nor any affiliates make any representation or warranties as to the accuracy or merit of this analysis
for individual use. Comments and general market related projections are based on information available at the time of writing and
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