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Hong Kong/China
Company Report
Company Update
29 August 2014
China / Alternative Energy / Solar
BUY
Target
Price
Upside
HK$2.68
HK$3.20
19.40%
Daniel Yang
CE No: BDJ027
(852) 2823 2532
Daniel.Yang@ebscn.hk
1.85-3.17
--
FF no of shares (m)
FF (%)
FF market cap (HK$ m)
12M daily turnover (HK$ m)
12M volatility (%)
RoE FY13 (%)
P/B FY13 (x)
Net debt/equity FY13 (%)
Performance (%)
Absolute
Relative to HSCEI
1M
4.5
6.1
YTD
15.8
14.7
12M
43.3
32.2
Price Chart
Investment Summary
FY-end Dec
Turnover (HK$ m)
Growth (%)
Net Profit (HK$ m)
Growth (%)
EPS (HK$)
Growth (%)
PER (x)
OCF/Share (HK cents)
P/B (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
DPS (HK$)
Yield (%)
Share
Price
2012
22,348
(12.4)
(3,516)
NA
(0.23)
NA
N/A
15
2.1
18.2
-
2013
25,530
14.2
(664)
NA
(0.04)
NA
N/A
55
2.1
15.3
-
2014E
30,851
20.8
2,105
NA
0.14
NA
16.3
49
2.0
6.8
0.03
1.3
2015E
33,985
10.2
3,462
64.6
0.22
64.6
9.9
57
1.7
5.2
0.04
1.8
2016E
35,407
4.2
4,618
33.7
0.30
33.7
7.4
72
1.5
4.0
0.06
2.7
HK$
3.50
Turnover (HK$ m)
GCL-Poly Energy
3.00
2.50
2.00
HSI
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
1.50
1.00
600
400
0.50
200
0.00
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
1H14
1H13
17,222
11,230
YoY%
52.4
(13,544)
(10,554)
(28.5)
393.7
3,678
745
Other income
618
341
81.2
(34)
(20)
(70.0)
Administrative expenses
(1,127)
(822)
(37.1)
Finance costs
(1,406)
(1,091)
(28.9)
Other expenses
(428)
82
N/A
1,301
(765)
N/A
Income tax
(288)
(71)
(305.6)
Net profit
1,013
(836)
N/A
G Mono
wafer
12%
S3 Poly
wafer
2%
S2 Poly
wafer
49%
Ordinary
Poly wafer
49%
S3 Poly
wafer
38%
S2 Poly
wafer
50%
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
PV efficiency
Additional Cost
N/A
N/A
S2 Poly
17.20%
17.70%
5-10%
S3 Poly
17.95%
10-15%
G1 Mono
18.30%
5%
10-15%
G2 Mono
19.50%
5%
15-20%
Ordinary Poly
Price premium
The company is confident in further cutting production cost in 2H14. By the end
of 1H14, the production cost was US$15.25/Kg for polysilicon and the processing
cost was US$0.079/w for wafer. Management expects the first 12,000MT FBR
production line to commerce operation in October and the production cost of
polysilicon under the FBR technology is significantly lowered to US$9/Kg and
US$8/Kg by the end of 2014 and 2015 respectively, better than previous
estimation of US$10/Kg. For the captive power plant, however, its progress is
slower than expected. Management postpones the estimated operation date
from July to the end of 2014. We believe the FBR production line together with
the captive power plant could release great potential in cost reduction in 2015.
For the downstream solar farm business, however, the company had only 20MW
new installed capacity in the first half. The progress is slower than our
expectation but in line with the national trend. Management reiterates the
installation of 600MW to 800MW solar farm in the second half through GCL New
Energy (0451.HK, NR), marking the total capacity to 1GW by the end of this year.
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
16.0
14.0
Ground-mounted
14
Distributive
12.0
10.0
Total
8
8.0
6.0
2.8
4.0
2.0
1.3
1.5
3.3
2.3
1
0.0
1H13
1H14
14 Quota
The slow installation in ground-mounted solar farms was mainly attributed to tight
quota and slow granting of construction approval. In fact the market has great
enthusiasm and incentive in investing in ground-mounted solar projects.
However, the initial quota of 6GW set by the NEA can not satisfy the investment
demand. HK-listed companies alone have a project pipeline around 6GW in 2014.
Due to the keen competition, local authorities were more cautious in distributing
out quota and slowed down the approval process. While for distributive projects,
investors were concerned about the uncertainty of project return as well as
difficulty in finding suitable rooftops, financing and so on. Therefore, most of the
solar project investors were still on the fence and the market demand for
distributive installation was weaker than expected.
In China, the installation progress of distributive projects is far behind
ground-mounted projects, with only 1GW out of the total 11.3GW solar projects
installed in 2013. From NEAs perspective, to encourage more distributive
installation is beneficial as its closer to electricity users. However, we believe
NEAs initial target was too aggressive and the demand for distributive installation
is unlikely to exceed ground-mounted installation before 2016.
In order to refuel the downstream installation, NEA reiterated the whole year
solar installation target of 13GW in 2014 and announced a few new policies early
this month. Firstly, it is to establish a more efficient ground-mounted solar farms
managing system, including flexible quota distributing, corresponding grid
development, project quality control and so on. Secondly, it is to reclassify
ground-mounted projects which are located in wasteland and below 20MW as
distributive projects, implicitly increasing the quota for ground-mounted projects.
Thirdly, it is to enable distributive projects to enjoy the same level of feed-in-tariff
as ground-mounted projects (Rmb0.9-1.0/KWH). Last but not least, support from
local governments and financial institutions are encouraged.
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
Wind
6.61%
Nuclear Solar
1.42% 1.45%
Wind
3.00%
Nuclear
2.16%
Solar
0.40%
Hydro
14.19%
Hydro
20.28%
Thermal
70.24%
Thermal
80.25%
In our view, the key drivers of solar industry are robust downstream demand and
decreasing production cost. Therefore, by creating large compulsive downstream
demand, it may take the whole solar industry into a new booming era once the
ROS is implemented.
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Normal terms
Trade processing
US
Korea
Germany
Others
Total
Country
Capacity
Anti-dumping tariff
Anti-subsidy tariff
Hemlock
The US
46,000
53.3%
2.1%
REC
The US
20,000
57.0%
0.0%
Sunedison
The US
53.7%
0.0%
Wacker
OCI
Germany
4,200
52,000
Korea
42,000
N/A
N/A
2.4%
0.0%
GCL-Poly
China
75,000
N/A
N/A
TEBA
China
17,000
N/A
N/A
Daqo
China
12,000
N/A
N/A
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
23.00
22.00
21.00
20.00
19.00
18.00
17.00
16.00
15.00
14.00
Nov-14E
Sep-14 E
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-14E
Sep-14 E
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
Key Risks
Launch of captive power plant and FBR production line put off. Any delays
in these projects would affect the companys cost reduction plan.
Slow progress in new solar farms. The company has ambitious target of
600MW to 800MW capacity expansion plan in its solar farms. Delay in these
projects could affect GCLs earnings.
Withdrawal of government supports. The governments around the globe may
readjust their policies for the solar industry, including revising down the FiTs or
subsidies, which will suppress end-market demand and have negative impact on
the supply chain.
Trade disputes. More trade disputes regarding solar products may arise across
major solar markets due to trade protectionism, stirring up uncertainties of supply
and demand in the industry.
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
Company Background
GCL-Poly is a leading manufacturer of polysilicon and wafer for global solar market. It has ramped up its polysilicon production capacity to
65,000MT and wafer production capacity of 12GW at 1Q14. GCL forayed into the downstream solar projects business in recent years and have a
total of 321MW solar projects in operation worldwide. Meanwhile, GCL owns and invests in a total of 19 cogeneration power plants, two incineration
power plants and one wind power plant in China.
2012
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
22,348 25,530 32,587 34,900 37,061
(20,599) (22,490) (25,271) (25,861) (26,089)
1,749
3,039
7,316
9,039 10,972
784
965
1,079
1,201
1,245
(3,481) (2,285) (2,640) (2,867) (3,094)
(948)
1,719
5,756
7,374
9,123
(2,309) (2,416) (3,019) (2,727) (2,465)
(4)
441
(3.261)
(256)
2,737
4,646
6,658
(124)
(190)
(410)
(836) (1,332)
(130)
(218)
(233)
(381)
(533)
(3,515)
(664)
2,094
3,429
4,794
1,877
5,547
9,327 11,065 12,967
(952)
2,160
5,756
7,374
9,123
(0.23) (0.04)
0.14
0.22
0.31
0.03
0.04
0.06
2012
2,326
(3,261)
2,742
(844)
3,689
(5,311)
(4,970)
128
(469)
(2,985)
617
3,953
(851)
(3,336)
(20)
163
2,388
1,673
5,685
1,913
1,105
2012
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
67,818 76,643 80,585 80,812 83,346
22,169 28,057 34,362 35,752 39,179
9,510 14,249 19,531 21,060 21,801
46
12
12
12
12
8,681 11,057 11,931 11,432 13,725
3,425
2,462
2,610
2,967
3,359
507
277
278
280
281
45,649 48,585 46,222 45,060 44,168
451
536
536
536
536
42,233 43,995 41,611 40,425 39,507
2,965
4,054
4,076
4,099
4,125
50,048 58,638 61,267 58,228 56,658
30,439 42,045 44,788 42,555 42,087
9,128 13,737 13,695 14,642 16,758
20,170 26,331 29,116 25,936 23,352
1,141
1,977
1,976
1,977
1,977
19,609 16,593 16,479 15,672 14,571
16,741 14,460 14,347 13,540 12,438
2,858
2,133
2,133
2,133
2,133
17,770 18,005 19,318 22,495 26,397
16,210 16,146 17,226 20,023 23,392
1,560
1,859
2,092
2,473
3,005
66,258 74,784 78,493 78,250 80,050
(27,401) (26,542) (23,932) (18,416) (13,989)
(8,270) (13,988) (10,425) (6,803) (2,908)
37,379 34,598 35,797 38,257 41,259
17,770 18,005 19,318 22,495 26,397
154.2
147.4
123.9
81.9
53.0
Financial Summary
FY-end 31 Dec
Growth (%)
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
Net profit
EPS
Margins (%)
Gross
EBITDA
EBIT
Net
Others (%)
Effective tax rate
Payout ratio
RoCE
Average RoE
Average RoA
Interest cover (x)
Receivables turnover days
Inventory turnover days
Payables turnover days
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
-12.4
-79.0
NA
NA
NA
14.2
195.5
NA
NA
NA
27.6
68.2
166
NA
NA
7.1
18.6
28.1
63.8
63.8
6.2
17.2
23.7
39.8
39.8
7.8
8.4
-4.3
-15.2
11.9
21.7
8.5
-1.8
22.5
28.6
17.7
7.1
26.0
31.7
21.1
10.9
29.6
35.0
24.6
14.4
-3.8
-2.6
-17.6
-5.2
-0.4
87
42
72
-74.3
6.2
-3.7
-0.9
0.9
111
32
114
15.0
20.0
16.1
11.2
2.7
1.9
105
25
95
18.0
20.0
19.3
16.4
4.3
2.7
100
28
95
20.0
20.0
22.1
19.6
5.8
3.7
103
33
103
Please read the analysts and company disclosure and the disclaimer in the last page
Expected to outperform the benchmark index by >15% over the next six months
Expected to outperform the benchmark index by 5 - 15% over the next six months
Expected to outperform or underperform the benchmark index by <5% over the next six months
Expected to underperform the benchmark index by 5 - 15% over the next six months
Expected to underperform the benchmark index by >15% over the next six months
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this report hereby certify that
(1) All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her or their personal views about the subject
company or companies and its/theirs securities;
(2) No part of his or her or their compensation was/were, is/are or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report or any specific investment banking function;
(3) He/she/they are not directly supervised by, and do not directly report to, investment banking functions;
(4) He/she/they has/have not breach the quiet period restriction of dealing in the securities covered in this report;
(5) He/she/they is/are not an officer and do(es) not hold any directorship in the company or companies this report
covered.
Disclosure
China Everbright Securities International Limited, a substantial shareholder of China Everbright Research Limited, does
not have financial interests (including stock holding) that equal 1% or more of the market capitalization of the company
under review at the date this report is published; does not have investment banking relationship with the company under
review within the past 12 months; and does not have market-making activities in the stock. None of our staff is an officer
of the company.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by China Everbright Research Limited with the contribution by Everbright Securities
Company Limited Everbright Securities Research. China Everbright Research Limited does not guarantee, either
expressed or implied, the completeness, reliability and accuracy of the materials contained in the report.
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