Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Project No.:
04/07/2007
44002
Organisational unit:
TIE
Client:
Client ref.:
Ecofys / OneCarbon
2007-44002
21/09/2007
01
Rev. No.
Kurt Seidel
Limited distribution
Unrestricted distribution
Abbreviations
Explain any abbreviations that have been used in the report here.
BM
Build Margin
CAR
Corrective Action Request
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
CEF
Carbon Emission Factor
CER
Certified Emission Reduction
CL
Clarification request
CO2
Carbon dioxide
CO2e
Carbon dioxide equivalent
DNA
Designated National Authority
FCAR
Forward Corrective Action Request
FCL
Forward Clarification Request
GHG
Greenhouse gas(es)
GJ
Giga joule
GWP
Global Warming Potential
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRR
Internal rate of return
LOA
Letter of Approval
MP
Monitoring Plan
MVP
Monitoring and Verification Plan
NGO
NPV
ODA
Non-governmental Organisation
Net Present Value
Official Development Assistance
O&M
PDD
UNFCCC
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ANEMON INTEPE 30.4 MW WIND FARM PROJECT ......................................................... 1
1
2
2.1
2.2
INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 6
Objective
6
Scope
6
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
METHODOLOGY....................................................................................................... 6
Desk Review of the Project Design Documentation
7
Follow-up Interviews with Project Stakeholders
8
Resolution of Outstanding Issues
9
Internal Quality Control
11
Validation Team
11
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
2 INTRODUCTION
Ecofys BV / OneCarbon has commissioned TV Rheinland to perform a validation of the
Anemon Intepe 30.4 MW Wind Farm Project in Turkey (hereafter called the project).
This report summarises the findings of the validation of the project, performed on the basis of
UNFCCC criteria for the CDM, as well as criteria given to provide for consistent project
operations, monitoring and reporting. UNFCCC criteria refer to Article 12 of the Kyoto
Protocol, the CDM modalities and procedures and the subsequent decisions by the CDM
Executive Board and the requirements for Voluntary Offset Projects under the Gold Standard.
2.1 Objective
The purpose of a validation is to have an independent third party assess the project design. In
particular, the project's baseline, monitoring plan, and the projects compliance with relevant
UNFCCC and host Party criteria are validated in order to confirm that the project design, as
documented, is sound and reasonable and meets the identified criteria. Validation is a
requirement for all CDM projects as well as Voluntary Offset projects under the Gold
Standard and is seen as necessary to provide assurance to stakeholders of the quality of the
project and its intended generation of verified emission reductions (VERs).
2.2 Scope
The validation scope is defined as an independent and objective review of the project design
document (PDD). The PDD is reviewed against the criteria stated in Article 12 of the Kyoto
Protocol, the CDM modalities and procedures as agreed in the Marrakech Accords, the
requirements for Voluntary Offset Projects under the Gold Standard and the relevant
decisions by the CDM Executive Board, including the approved baseline and monitoring
methodology. The validation team has, based on the recommendations in the Validation and
Verification Manual employed a risk-based approach, focusing on the identification of
significant risks for project implementation and the generation of VERs.
The validation is not meant to provide any consulting towards the project participants.
However, stated requests for clarifications and/or corrective actions may have provided input
for improvement of the project design.
3 METHODOLOGY
The validation consists of the following three phases:
I
a desk review of the project design documents
II
follow-up interviews with project stakeholders
III
the resolution of outstanding issues and the issuance of the final validation report and
opinion.
International Emission Trading Association (IETA) & the World Banks Prototype
Carbon Fund (PCF): Validation and Verification Manual. http://www.vvmanual.info
ACM0002 Consolidated methodology for grid-connected electricity generation from
renewable sources version 06 of 19 May 2006.
/5/
Board Decision of Demirer Holding on Consideration of VERs for the Anemon Intepe
Project of ( please clarify the date of the decision see CL1 )
/6/
/7/
/8/
/9/
/10/
/11/
/12/
/13/
/15/
/15/
/16/
/17/
/18/
/19/
/20/
Date
2007-06-19
Name
Mr. Ugur Yksel
/2/
2007-06-18
/3/
2007-06-19
Mr. Fatih
Yenign
Organization
Director of Canakkale
Province Provincial
Public Works
Technical Supervisor
Mare Manastir &
Anemon Intepe
Site Manager Anemon
Intepe
/4/
2007-06-19
/6/
2007-06-20
Mr.Muammer
Topcu
Mr. nder
Demirer
Mukhtar of
Kizilcaoren Village
Vice President
Demirer Holding A.S.
/6
2007-06-20
/7/
2007-06-20
Mr. Mjdat
Doganca
/8/
Board Director
Demirer Holding
A.S.
Commercial Manager
Demirer Holding
A.S.
Commercial
Coordinator Asst.
/9/
2007-06-20
/10/
Project Manager
ENERCON GmbH
Bremen
/11/
Ecofys Trkiye
Mr. Halil
Durutrk
Technical Manager
ENERCON Servis
Limited Sirketi
Topic
Environmental impacts
Project technology,
operation, maintenance
and monitoring
Project technology,
electrical measurements
and recording
Follow up stakeholder
consultation process
Project background,
project licences, local
content
Project background,
financial issues,
personnel
Project background,
financial issues,
contractors and personnel
Local stakeholder process,
on-site assessments,
background information,
personnel
Project technology,
operation, maintenance
and monitoring
capability, other technical
issues, energy yield
estimation
Project technology,
operation, maintenance
and monitoring
capability.
Baseline determination,
emission reductions
Calculation, emission
reduction monitoring plan,
monitoring plan of
sustainable indicators,
additionality
/12/
05 07 /
2007
05 07 /
2007
Ir. Edwin
Dalenoord.
Mr. Stefan
Leclaire
Ecofys BV
/14/
05 07 /
2007
OneCarbon
/15/
2007-06-19
/16/
2007-06-19
University of
Canakkale
Follow up stakeholder
of the neighbouring
consultation process
villages
Kizilcaoren,Canakalan,
Denizgrnd
/13/
OneCarbon
The objective of this phase of the validation is to resolve any outstanding issues which need
be clarified prior to TV Rheinlands positive conclusion on the project design. In order to
ensure transparency a validation protocol is customised for the project. The protocol shows in
transparent manner criteria (requirements), means of verification and the results from
validating the identified criteria. The validation protocol serves the following purposes:
It organises, details and clarifies the requirements a GS-VER project is expected to meet;
It ensures a transparent validation process where the validator will document how a
particular requirement has been validated and the result of the validation.
The validation protocol consists of two tables. The different columns in these tables are
described in the figure below. The completed validation protocol for the Anemon Intepe 30.4
MW Wind Farm Project in Turkey is enclosed in Appendix A to this report.
Findings established during the validation can either be seen as a non-fulfilment of CDM or
GS-VER criteria or where a risk to the fulfilment of project objectives is identified.
Corrective action requests (CAR) are issued, where:
i)
mistakes have been made with a direct influence on project results;
ii)
CDM / GS-VER and/or methodology specific requirements have not been met; or
iii)
there is a risk that the project would not be accepted as a GS-VER project or that
emission reductions will not be certified.
A request for clarification (CL) may be used where additional information is needed to fully
clarify an issue.
Reference
Conclusion
Reference
Means of
verification (MoV)
Comment
The various
requirements in Table 2
are linked to checklist
questions the project
should meet. The
checklist is organised in
different sections,
following the logic of the
large-scale PDD
template, version 03 - in
effect as of: 28 July
2006. Each section is
then further sub-divided.
Gives
reference to
documents
where the
answer to
the checklist
question or
item is
found.
Explains how
conformance with
the checklist
question is
investigated.
Examples of means
of verification are
document review
(DR) or interview
(I). N/A means not
applicable.
The section is
used to elaborate
and discuss the
checklist question
and/or the
conformance to
the question. It is
further used to
explain the
conclusions
reached.
Ref. to checklist
question in table 2
Summary of project
owner response
Validation conclusion
Reference to the
checklist question
number in Table 2
where the CAR or CL is
explained.
10
Last Name
Seidel
First Name
Country
Kurt
Germany
Glombik
Prof. Dr. Schock
Katja
Guenter
Germany
Germany
11
4 VALIDATION FINDINGS
The main findings of the validation are stated in the following sections. The validation criteria
(requirements), the means of verification and the complete list of results from validating the
identified criteria are documented in more detail in the validation protocol in Appendix A.
12
27 units are installed at an altitude of 65m, 9 units are installed at an altitude of 55m and 2
units are installed at an altitude of 50m. The proposed project activity includes the
construction of 2000 m of new transmission line to establish a connection between the
proposed project and the national grid. The project will be connected to the 154 kV highvoltage transmission lines between the anakkale and Ezine transformer stations. The
Anemon Wind Farm will generate 108 GWh/year which is delivered to the Turkish national
grid. The estimated emission reductions amount to 79,136 tCO2-eq/year.
The projects system boundaries are clearly defined as the Turkish national power grid. The
project started construction on 30 November 2005.
Being a renewable electricity project, the project activity will generate greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission reductions by avoiding CO2 emissions from electricity generation by fossil fuel
power plants. Because of the significant contributions of the project activity to technology
transfer from Germany to Turkey and to the regions sustainable development is the project
activity designed as Voluntary Offset Project under the Gold Standard.
The project owner has seriously considered VERs in the decision to develop the project,
which has been confirmed with relevant documents during the on-site assessment. The
expected operational lifetime of the project activity is 20 years. A renewable crediting period
of 7 years has been chosen for the project, starting from 1 August 2007. The emission
reductions are estimated to be 79,136 tCO2e per year and 553,955 tCO2e over the first sevenyear crediting period.
CL1: Please clarify the date of the Board Decision of Demirer Holding on Consideration of
VERs for the Anemon Intepe Project.
Additional revenues such as emission credits, green certificate, VER certificate were taken
into consideration in the contents of the feasibility studies which were executed before the
construction of the investment projects ( see statement Demirer Holding of 19/07/2007, in the
PDD, annex 10 ) .
13
The defined project boundary is in line with ACM0002 (version 06). Emission sources and
gases included in the project boundary are:
GHGs involved
Description
Baseline emissions
CO2
Project emissions
N/A
Leakage
N/A
In the baseline scenario the electricity delivered from the project activity to the grid would
have been generated by fossil fuels grid-connected power plants and by the addition of new
generation sources. This is reflected in the combined margin (CM) - the weighted average of
the operating margin (OM) emission factor and the build margin (BM) emission factor. The
weighting is set to respectively 75% and 25%, the default values stipulated by ACM0002
version 06 for wind farm projects.
The Turkish National Grid is dominated by fossil fuel-fired power plants ( coal, lignite,
natural gas and fuel oil ). It is deemed likely that these fossil fuel-fired power plants will
continue to dominate the power sector due to the local availability of low-cost coal and
lignite. It is expected that renewable capacity additions will not have significant effects on the
mix of the Turkish National Grid during the first crediting period. The baseline determination
is transparent and reasonable.
4.4 Additionality
Referring to Part B of the PDD.
The additionality of the project has been established using the Tool for the demonstration
and assessment of additionality version 02 approved by the CDM-EB.
Step 1: Identification of the alternatives to the project activity consistent with the current laws
and regulations.
The alternate baseline scenarios for the project activity have been suitably identified as,
a) The proposed project activity not undertaken as a VER project activity;
b) Same amount of electricity produced by other facilities not under the control of project
proponent ( no action from the investors )
The proposed project activity not undertaken as a CDM project activity is not a realistic and
credible alternative, as discussed in the analysis below.
14
Power plants of the similar installed capacity as the proposed project utilizing renewable
energy such as biomass are not economically attractive due to undeveloped technology status
and the high cost of power generation. Furthermore, the hydro resources are limited and
lacked in this region and are not able to provide a comparable output or the same services as
the proposed project.
The installed capacity of the Turkish National Grid for both the existing power plants and the
power plants to be built in a foreseeable future makes it possible as an alternative to provide
electricity from the grid.
The only realistic and credible alternative for the proposed project is thus the provision of an
equivalent amount of annual power output by the Turkish National Grid.
Step 2: Investment analysis.
As the proposed project generates financial and economic benefits through the sales of
electricity other than VER related income, a simple cost analysis (option I of the
methodology) can not be applied. The alternative for the baseline scenario of the proposed
project is not a similar investment project, so option II is also not an appropriate choice.
Hence, a benchmark analysis (option III of Step 2 of tool for the demonstration and
assessment of additionality) is selected for conducting the investment analysis.
An investor in Turkey will find it impossible to borrow long-term in the Turkish market.
Firstly, there is no domestic supply of long term commercial credit. Secondly, it would be
prohibitively expensive. The current real interest rate on short term debt is more than 12%
( 20 - 25% for short term borrowing, inflation close to 10% ). These points to a discount rate
for long term credit in excess of 12% in real terms in YTL. Also supply of long term
international commercial credit to Turkish debtors is limited.
In Turkey an IRR of 10% for the total investment of a project is regarded as a benchmark for
investments in hydropower plants and fossil fuel fired plants. According to a feasibility study
on wind farms from the Department of Mechanical Engineering, Izmir Institute of
Technology of 18 April 2006 is the required minimum IRR value 15%.
The IRR improves by 0.73 % ( 20 years ) with VER revenues, but is still low ( 2.99 % ). The
VER benefits increases the equity IRR of the project thus providing the project with necessary
financial back-up. Revenues from these Voluntary Emission Reduction Units (VERs )
commercialisation, which are widely nominated in or $, will provide a natural hedge to this
investment. The additional income which will result from the sale of VERs has positively
influenced the bank decision to issue the loan. Since the income from VERs, in Euros
stabilises the income of the project, and consequently reduces the risk of the bank which
issued the loan.
The calculation was performed on the assumption of 20 years operational lifetime with a
constant baseline. The selected crediting period of 7 years can be two times renewed, which
includes also a re-calculation of the baseline. It is expected, that within the next 21 years the
combined margin emission factor will decrease.
15
According to the Tool for the Demonstration and Assessment of Additionality (version 03)
is a sensitivity analysis applicable to options II (investment comparison analysis) and and III
(benchmark analysis).
CAR2: A sensitivity analysis has to be performed in order to show that the project activity is
not the most financially attractive option. For this sensitivity analysis has to be taken into
account also the previous revision of the Renewable Energy Law in Turkey ( 18th of April,
2007 ), which guarantees now a higher electricity feed in tariff for 10 years, which was not
known, when the bank decision on the project financing was on the agenda. The financial
spread sheet calculations need to be provided for verification including sensititivity analysis (
including 5% change in PLF ).
A sensitivity analysis, which is considering the impact of changes in the total investment,
annual O&M cost, variations of electricity tariff and annual output on project financial
performance, is not part of the PDD. It would show that when the total investment, electricity
tariff and O&M costs fluctuate within the range of -10% and 10%, that the IRR for total
investment will probably not reach the benchmark.
A sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the effect of the new guaranteed price
(5cent/kWh) on the project IRR of the proposed project. The IRR values for the project in
Table 13 are corrected accordingly to the most up to values of VER revenues.
A reduced sensitivity analysis is performed to demonstrate the effect of the new guaranteed
price (5cent/kWh) on the project IRR of the proposed project. The IRR values for the project
in Table 13 are corrected accordingly to the most up to values of VER revenues. Nevertheless
this reduced sensitivity analysis according to step 5 of additionality tool, version 2 ( impact of
VER registration ) is deemed to be sufficient for the assessment and evaluation of the project
activity. Under these circumstances CAR2 can finally be closed.
Step 3: Barrier analysis.
A barrier analysis has been conducted as supplementary to the investment analysis.
Investment barriers: The investment cost has been higher than originally planned because of
an increase of the cost of the equipment, additional cost for the grid connection. The high
initial investment cost leads to higher investment risk and more difficulties in project
financing. The letter of T. Garanti Bank A.S. of February 16, 2007 is evidence, that the
prospect of generating tradeable Verified Emission Reductions ( VERs ) and the expected
revenues from carbon credits was basis for the positive loan decision of the above bank.
Technological barriers: The 800 kW wind turbines lack operation experience in Turkey. The
project owner lacks skilled labour to operate and maintain the technology, which will lead to a
high risk of equipment disrepair and malfunctioning and other under- performance. Thus
training on required technology for the staffs is carried out during implementation of the
proposed project.
16
The proposed project faces a number of market barriers of which the economic
unattractiveness, lack of technical know-how and lack of availability of equipment are the
most important.
One of the advantages of the direct drive design of Enercon, which so far is more or less
exclusively the domain of Enercon is especially for connection to existing grids, that in
general, no flicker problems occur. The direct drive variable speed turbines of Enercon also
allow the grid voltage to be controlled, as the reactive power generation can be varied.
However, none of the barriers mentioned above would prevent the alternative equivalent
capacity or electricity service provided by the Turkish National Power Grid from
implementation.
Step 4: Common practice analysis.
Existing wind farms with installed capacity above 10 MW in Turkey are listed in the common
practice analysis. It shows that earlier wind farms enjoyed a very favourable electricity tariff
( 8.54 $cents/kWh until 2001 ) that is impossible for nowadays wind farm projects. Other
similar wind farms have all applied for VER projects due to the same financial
unattractiveness and investment barrier as the proposed project activity. Therefore the project
activity cannot be said to represent common practice.
In summary, it is sufficiently demonstrated that the project is not a likely a baseline scenario
and that emission reductions occurring from this will hence be additional.
4.5 Monitoring
Referring to Part B and Annex 4 of the PDD.
The project applies the approved monitoring methodology ACM0002 version 06
Consolidated monitoring methodology for zero emissions grid-connected electricity
generation from renewable sources. The selected monitoring methodology is applicable for
the project activity as it involves grid-connected renewable power generation using wind
energy.
17
FCL2: The project proponent is requested to consider the latest public available OM and BM
data provided by TEIA to calculate the most conservative CM.
At the time of the PDD writing the latest publicly available information has been used. This
was the 2005 Statistical yearbook. An official request was send to the Turkish grid operator
TEIA. They replied that According to 5429 numbered Turkish Statistical Act (law) and the
Official Statistical Program, the data that are produced or published by our institution has
gained the official statistics status in 2007. According to the definition of confidential data
and individual data use in the 13th and 14th articles of the mentioned law, the requested
detailed data that belongs to private sector cannot be provided1Therefore, for the generation
plants commissioned in year 2006, only the general data as below can be provided.
After completion of the PDD the 2006 statistical yearbook was published. Based on the
clarification request the emission factor calculations have been updated based on the figures
from the 2006 statistical yearbook. The PDD, version 02 was updated accordingly.
1
18
Such samples are the high local content of sub-contracts during operation and also the mainly
employment of local residents and their further professional education throughout Demirer
Holding with support and long-term commitment of the German manufacturer Enercon. Other
factors not mentioned is the positive effect on tourism and on technology and know how
transfer for visitors from schools and universities.
Especially is the project attracting visitors throughout the widely visible exposure on the hills
near to the strait of the world wide known Dardanelles ( Turkish: anakkale Boaz ), which
connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Black Sea and divides the Balkans (Europe) along
the Gallipoli peninsula from Asia Minor.
CL3: It has to be clarified, how these sustainable indicators can be monitored in practice
( more details on procedures and forms of reporting ).
Based on the clarification request and according to Gold Standard requirements, was decided,
that only the sustainable indicators that score +2 on positive contribution to sustainable
development have to be monitored. Considering this ID2: Air quality and ID3: Other
pollutants will be removed from the monitoring plan in the PDD. The sustainable indicators
ID4: Employment (job quality), ID5: Employment (job number) and ID6: Technological self
reliance will remain in the PDD. For these indicators a simplified monitoring format have
been developed based on the monitoring plan described in the PDD, which results in the
closure of the above clarification request.
19
20
- For the conversion into t CO2 / GWh were the default emission factors of 2006 IPCC
National GHG inventory applied.
- The EFBM is calculated as 0.649 tCO2/MWh.
The weights OM and BM are selected as 0.75 and 0.25, respectively, as stipulated for wind
project by ACM0002 (version 06). The combined margin of 0.733 tCO2/MWh is fixed exante
for the entire first crediting period.
21
CL5: It has to be clarified, which additional community benefits were offered to the residents
of Kizilcaoren Village and if during the main stakeholder consultation and global stakeholder
consultation period further comments have been received.
The project did not receive any negative comment. The project developer is offering
additional community benefits with exemplary character, which is further explained within
the report of the main consultation and in the validation protocol.
CAR2 The output of the main consultation with a overall duration of 60 days, which is a
report including all written and oral comments given as well as the argumentation on whether
or not the comments are taken into account, has to be submitted to the validation team.
The report of the main consultation was completed on 12th of September 2007.
22
Comment by:
Accredited NGO
Inserted on:
Subject:
Party
Stakeholder
Comment: No comments were received during the above global stakeholder consultation
process.
23