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TABLE OF CONENTS
RISK SCORE ................................................................................................................................................................... 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................. 6
OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7
MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO ................................................................................................................................ 8
Glance at Key Economic Indicator ........................................................................................................................................8
Tradeoff between Growth & Inflation ............................................................................................................................... 12
Currency Movement ................................................................................................................................................................. 13
REGULATORY SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................... 14
DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO................................................................................................................................ 15
Current Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Demand Drivers ......................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Imports.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Exports .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
New Capacity Addition ........................................................................................................................................................... 21
Future Growth Prospect ......................................................................................................................................................... 23
COMPETITIVE SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................... 24
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE .................................................................................................................................. 26
Sales Growth ............................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Operating Cost ........................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Profitability ................................................................................................................................................................................. 28
RISK SCORE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Based on manufacturing process, steel pipe & tubes are divided into five categories:
Seamless, Longitudinal Submerged Arc Welded Pipes (LSAW), Horizontal Submerged Arc
Welded Pipes (HSAW), Electric Resistance Welded (ERW) pipes and Ductile Iron / Cast
Iron pipes.
India is one of the major manufacturing hubs for steel pipes & tubes and has emerged as a
major exporting hub catering mostly to demand from the markets of US and EU. Annual
production of steel tubes & pipes has increased by a CAGR of ~4.2% during FY 2010-14 to
reach 2.5 Mn tonnes. Going forward production of steel pipes & tubes is expected to reach
2.53 Mn tonnes by FY 2017 while consumption would touch 2.17 Mn tonnes.
Demand for seamless pipes arises from oil & gas sector where it is used in exploration as
well as for transportation. While demand for wielded pipes & tubes originate from
infrastructure construction, water treatment, power plants, automobiles and general
engineering sectors.
Anti-dumping investigations by US Trade Commission in 2013 on behalf of US steel
producers resulted in anti-dumping duties being imposed on steel pipes imported from
India (along with five other countries) to the US. Since US is the largest export market for
Indian steel pipes & tubes manufacturers, this high tariff would impact exports from the
country.
Currently eight to ten large players have a significant share of existing manufacturing
capacity. Jindal SAW, Welspun Corp, Electrosteel Casting, APL Apollo Tubes and ISMT
are few of the major players in the sector.
OVERVIEW
India is one of the major manufacturing hubs for steel pipes & tubes and has emerged as a major
exporting hub, catering mostly to demand from the markets of US and EU. Steel pipe & tube
industry consists of numerous types with varying dimensions. Based on end usage, it is broadly
classified into oil & gas and non-oil sector. Oil & gas sector comprises of pipes used for oil & gas
exploration, production as well as transportation. Non-oil sector consists of pipes & tubes used for
applications in construction, waste water management, and process plant equipment sector.
Based on the manufacturing process steel pipe & tubes are divided into five categories:
Seamless, Longitudinal Submerged Arc Welded Pipes (LSAW), Horizontal Submerged Arc
Welded Pipes (HSAW), Electric Resistance Welded (ERW) pipes and Ductile Iron / Cast Iron
pipes.
Types of Steel Pipes & Tubes
Type
Manufacturing Process
Major Applications
Seamless Pipes
Piercing ingots/
HSAW
billets of
LSAW
ERW
process
Transport
Limitations in size, thickness and grade
MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
Glance at Key Economic Indicator
Indian economy continued to report below 5% growth in FY 2014. At global level, economic
growth performance in major economies continued to play a decisive role in deciding the growth
fortunes of developing countries including India. Indian economic performance was severely
impacted by the sustained weakness in USA, Euro Zone countries and China that are also Indias
major trading partners and source of foreign capital inflows. In CY 2013, world economic growth
slide further to 3% as compared to 3.1% in previous year while US GDP growth slowed down to
1.88% as compared to 2.8% in in previous year and Euro Zone as a whole reported a growth of
about 0.2%. Annual GDP growth of world fastest growing market i.e. China too slowed down from
the level of 10.4% in 2010 to 7.7% in 2013.
At domestic level, Indias investment and industrial growth prospects remained fragile and even
the services sector remained weak. Even though the Indian government took several steps to
arrest the volatility in foreign exchange rate and narrow down the current account deficit in FY
2014 but the growth momentum of the domestic economy faced unrelenting challenges.
Persistence of high consumer price inflation and interest rates, weakening performance of
services and industrial sector has let down all expectation of economic revival in the past fiscal.
Additionally, regulatory hurdles, administrative bureaucracy, and policy delay pertaining to land
acquisition process, obtaining license, and environmental clearance were further impediments to
growth. These factors dampened the countrys position at global level as well due to which, on
th
ease of doing business Index India ranks 134 amongst 184 countries and lowest amongst
BRICs peers. Lack of consensus on major economic reform and policy paralysis led to a declining
new-investment spending for the fourth consecutive year in row since FY 2011.
6.69%
5.28%
5.5%
4.74%
4.47%
2.7%
2.88%
-0.1%
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
1.10%
FY 2013
FY 2014 PE
FY 2015F
th
growth reported a marginal incremental growth of 0.3% over the previous year and grew at about
4.74% in FY 2014 as compared to 4.47% in FY 2013. Economic activity continued to exhibit
stagnancy on back of slowing industrial sector. Industrial sector growth as measured by the Index
of Industrial Production (IIP), registered a y-o-y decline of 0.1% during FY 2014.
As seen in the below chart, services sector registered maximum growth over the period FY 201014, followed by the agriculture sector and industrial sector.
7,178
7,538
7,645
14,807
14,949
15,002
13,733
12,769
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013 RE FY 2014 PE
FY 2010
25,782
28,274
32,227
FY 2012
FY 2013 RE FY 2014 PE
FY 2011
7.54%
34,482
6.19%
4.91%
4.11%
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013 RE FY 2014 PE
Agriculture
Industry
Services
In FY 2014, services sectors contribution towards GDP stood at 60.1%, followed by industry
(26.1%) and agriculture (13.9%). Also, the share of services to economic output is increasing,
while that of agriculture and industry segment declined over the period FY 2012-13.
The annual growth rate of services sector, industry and agriculture sector stood at 7%, 0.35% and
4.17%, in FY 2014 as compared to 6.96% 0.96% and 1.42% respectively, registered in previous
fiscal.
7.6%
6.9%
7.2%
7.2%
6.4%
6.3%
6.3%
6.3%
5.0%
4.0%
Agricuture
-0.4%
Industry
-0.2%
Q4: FY 2014
-0.4%
3.7%
Q3: FY 2014
1.6%
Q2: FY 2014
0.8%
Q1: FY 2014
-0.4%
2.6%
2.1%
Q4: FY 2013
1.7%
Q3: FY 2013
1.8%
Q2: FY 2013
Q1: FY 2013
1.8%
0.3%
Services
latest monetary policy review in August 5 2014 against the industry expectation. Repo rate
currently stands at 8%.
CRR another monetary tool used by RBI to regulate money supply has been reduced four times
(each time by 25 basis point) since March 2012 in order to infuse the primary liquidity in banking
th
system and supports the GDP growth. With last 25 basis point cut on 29 Jan 2013, the CRR
currently stands at 4.0% and CRR too remained unchanged in latest policy review.
Currency Movement
Indian currency entered into a prolonged period of depreciation by the middle of fiscal 2012 which
continued well into end of FY 2014. During this period, rupee touched record lows. After a
prolonged period of depreciation the US dollar stabilized against Indian rupee in the range of INR
59 60. India is a major exporter of steel pipes & tubes and this depreciation in rupee has helped
shore up export revenue.
REGULATORY SCENARIO
Removal of production, pricing, and export restrictions placed on steel sector during the industrial
reforms of 1991 has immensely helped in growth of the sector. Private sector participation went
up and so did the manufacturing capacities that led India in becoming one of the largest producers
of steel in the world. Steel pipes & tubes sector too has benefitted from this relaxed regulatory
scenario and over the years the sector has seen massive capacity expansion, mostly by private
companies.
Increased pace of activity in several end-consuming sectors including oil & gas exploration,
construction and waste water treatment increased demand for steel pipes & tubes. Apart from
providing growth opportunities for domestic manufacturers, this scenario also attracted the
attention of foreign manufactures. Consequently import of steel pipes & tubes began to increase.
Imports from low cost manufacturing countries have skewed the platform in favor of foreign
manufacturers. To nullify these advantage anti-dumping cases were initiated by several domestic
manufacturers against exports from Austria, Czech Republic, Russia, Romania, and Ukraine.
Currently imports from these countries into India attract anti-dumping duties. An anti-dumping
investigation was initiated against imports from China in 2010, however the same has been
terminated
Demand Drivers
Demand for seamless pipes arises from oil & gas sector where it is used in exploration as well as
transportation. While demand for wielded pipes & tubes originate from infrastructure construction,
water treatment, power plants, automobiles and general engineering sectors.
Construction
Process Plant
Equipments
Imports
Import of steel pipes & tubes have declined in the past couple of years as overall demand
scenario slackened. Annual imports fell to 535,000 tonnes in FY 2014 from a high of 745,000
tonnes imported during fiscal year 2012. Consequently import expense incurred dropped from INR
79 Bn to INR 70 Bn during FY 2012-14.
China is the largest exporter of steel pipes & tubes to India, accounting for ~52% of total imports
(by value). Japan and Italy are the other two major exporters. Together imports from these three
countries accounted for 69% of total imports in FY 2014.
Exports
India imported close to 1.2 Mn tonnes of steel pipes & tubes during the fiscal year 2014. However
exports has steadily declined / stagnated after peaking at 2.2 Mn tonnes in FY 2011. Sedate
global demand due to the prevailing recessionary contributed to this decline in exports. In
response to decline in export volume overall value of exports declined from INR 118 Bn to INR 93
Bn during FY 2013-14.
Unlike imports, steel pipes & tubes exports from India are not concentrated to few markets.
Instead it is scattered across a large number of markets, with largest market accounting for only
17% of total exports. Western economies like US and countries in EU are few of the key markets
for Indian steel pipe & tube manufacturers. Slower demand growth from these countries that are
reeling under economic slowdown contributed to the overall drop in exports.
Steel pipes & tubes too witnessed major capacity expansion as removal of export restrictions
opened up markets in the US and EU where demand was on the upswing. However anti-dumping
investigations by US Trade Commission in 2013 on behalf of US steel producers resulted in antidumping duties being imposed on steel pipes imported from India (along with five other countries)
to the US. Since US is the largest export market for Indian steel pipes & tubes manufacturers, this
high tariff would impact exports from the country.
Subdued investment scenario points out to slow capacity expansion in the sector. During the
period 2014-16 only 266,000 tonnes of new capacity is expected to be added in the sector.
Major Projects Expected to be Commissioned by 2016
Company
Project
Tube Investments of
India
Tamil Nadu
Good
Luck
Steel
CDW
/ERW
Precision
Tube
Tubes
Capacity
Expected
(Tonnes)
Completion
36,000
March 2015
40,000
April 2015
190,000
July 2015
Ahmadabad, Gujarat
Source: CMIE Capex
COMPETITIVE SCENARIO
Steel pipes & tube manufacturing is capital intensive and economies of scale is a major factor for
succeeding in the industry. This capital intensive nature, need for a wide dealership network to
cater to domestic demand and compliance to global quality standards, to be able to compete in
export markets, act as entry barriers for smaller players. Consequently incumbent companies
have an advantage and new players face tough competition. Currently eight to ten large players
have a significant share in existing manufacturing capacities.
Major Steel Pipes & Tubes Manufactures in India
Established in 1984, Jindal SAW part of USD 18 Bn O.P.Jindal Group is
Jindal SAW
Welspun Corp
Electrosteel
Castings
Tubes
ISMT
Ltd and rechristened as ISMT in 2005 after merging with its subsidiary
Indian Seamless Steels and Alloys Ltd formed in 1995 to produce steel
alloys. Since its inception in 1980 the company has made couple of major
acquisition. The Company acquired Kalyani Seamless Tubes Ltd in 2000
and Sweden based Structo Hydraulics AB in 2007.
Jindal Saw
2,040,000
Welspun Corp
1,500,000
Man Industries
1,000,000
800,000
ISMT
450,000
Maharasthra Seamless
350,000
Ratnamani Metals
350,000
Electrosteel Casting
330,000
fiscal
Welspun Corp
Electrosteel Castings
Jindal SAW
ISMT
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Sales Growth
Economic slowdown that gripped Indian economy for the past few years has led to a stagnation of
industrial activity. New investments have dried up and production as such has gone down as
demand scenario deteriorated. Slowdown in end consuming sectors has impacted demand for
steel pipes & tubes. Consequently starting FY 2012 year on year change in sales has gone down.
Operating Cost
Operating Cost Margins
Year
Raw Material
SGA Expenses
Interest Expense
FY 2010
60.3%
3.3%
3.2%
4.7%
2.2%
FY 2011
60.3%
4.5%
3.8%
5.1%
2.4%
FY 2012
65.7%
4.8%
3.7%
5.0%
2.8%
FY 2013
61.4%
4.7%
3.9%
5.0%
3.5%
FY 2014
56.9%
4.9%
4.3%
5.1%
3.9%
Steel prices have softened from the high levels reached during FY 2011 that has helped
companies in the sector control their raw material expense. Reflecting this scenario combined raw
material cost in the sample declined from 60% to ~57% of total revenue during FY 2010-14. The
spike in FY 2012 was more due to higher volume of consumption rather than increase in steel
prices.
By FY 2014 raw material consumption too has gone down as sedate demand scenario forced
manufacturers to realign annual production volumes. Drop in both volume of raw material
consumed as well as cost of raw material during FY 2013-14 led to the fall in raw material cost
margin by ~4.5 percentage points.
Steel industry is both labor intensive as well as power intensive. Consequently manufacturers
incur high salary & wage expense as well as power & fuel expenses. Combination of crude oil
price rise as well as weak currency led to an increase in power & fuel cost, which inflated from
3.3% of revenue to ~5% revenue during FY 2010-14. Salary & wage expense too increased from
3.2% to ~4.3% during the same period.
Profitability
Profitability margin in the sector has steadily declined (as seen in the sample considered) during
the period FY 2010-14 due to slowdown in sales as demand from end consuming sector dropped.
Although raw material cost largest operating cost moderated during the period other major
expense heads like power & fuel cost as well as salary & wage expense increased.
Ratio Analysis
Debt Equity Ratio
Demand for steel pipes & tubes from domestic market as well as export markets grew at a brisk
pace for several years till 2012. This extended period of growth encouraged manufacturers to
invest in capacity expansion projects, anticipating continuation of demand. Towards this many
companies raised debt to fund these expansion plans, leading to growth in consolidated debt
component.
However drop in industrial activity in domestic market and slower than expected revival in export
demand impacted sales leading to lower growth in net worth. Combination of increase in debt
component and slow growth in net worth pushed debt-equity ratio upward.
Average Value
29.9%
3.0%
Current Ratio
2.26
Quick Ratio
1.20
72
Inventory Days
96
35
RONW
5.4%
ROA
9.1%
ROCE
Long Debt-Equity
Net worth to Total Liabilities
12.0%
0.89
40.0%
3.70
2.21
Asset Turnover
0.72
Inventory Turnover
3.99
4.36
0.82
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