Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Noviembre 2013
IGBVL
MSCI Emergentes
1500%
S&P 500
+1286.4%
1100%
700%
300%
+228.5%
+53.6%
+7.%
Si en el 2002 hubiera
invertido US$ 100,000
en acciones del
Fuente: Bloomberg, BVL, Kallpa SAB
Actualizado al 30/10/13
IGBVL
MSCI Emergentes
S&P 500
Euro Stoxx 600
Hoy
tendra
jul-13
ene-13
jul-12
ene-12
jul-11
ene-11
jul-10
ene-10
jul-09
ene-09
jul-08
ene-08
jul-07
ene-07
jul-06
ene-06
jul-05
ene-05
jul-04
ene-04
jul-03
ene-03
jul-02
ene-02
-100%
US$ 1,386,356
US$
328,529
US$
153,588
US$
107,388
Equity Research
EEUU
Alemania
Per
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
jul-13
ene-13
jul-12
ene-12
jul-11
ene-11
jul-10
ene-10
jul-09
ene-09
jul-08
ene-08
jul-07
ene-07
jul-06
ene-06
jul-05
ene-05
jul-04
ene-04
jul-03
ene-03
jul-02
ene-02
0%
Equity Research
Oro
1,600
50
Plata
40
1,200
30
800
20
400
10
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2002
1,900
40
1,800
35
1,700
1,600
30
1,500
25
1,400
1,300
20
1,200
oct-13
sep-13
ago-13
jul-13
jun-13
may-13
abr-13
mar-13
feb-13
ene-13
dic-12
nov-12
oct-12
sep-12
ago-12
jul-12
jun-12
may-12
abr-12
mar-12
feb-12
15
ene-12
1,100
Equity Research
2.2
Cobre
Zinc
1.7
1.2
0.7
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0.2
4.0
1.00
3.8
0.95
3.6
0.90
3.4
0.85
3.2
0.80
3.0
0.75
oct-13
sep-13
ago-13
jul-13
jun-13
may-13
abr-13
mar-13
feb-13
ene-13
dic-12
nov-12
oct-12
sep-12
ago-12
jul-12
jun-12
may-12
abr-12
mar-12
feb-12
0.70
ene-12
2.8
Equity Research
Equity Research
PER
Actual
Mediana
Histrica
S&P 500
EEUU
15.9
16.0
Euro Stoxx 50
Europa
17.9
14.5
Alemania
16.4
15.1
Francia
18.6
13.7
Reino Unido
20.3
19.6
Asia
15.0
16.7
NIKKEI 225
Japn
22.4
23.9
SHANGHAI
China
11.3
20.
MSCI LATAM
LATAM
17.7
13.9
Brasil
15.9
11.8
Mxico
22.0
15.7
Chile
22.1
20.6
Colombia
19.3
18.3
Per
14.7
12.2
ndice
DAX
CAC 40
FTSE 100
MSCI Asia/Pacific
MSCI Brasil
MSCI Mxico
MSCI Chile
MSCI Colombia
MSCI Per
Fuente: Bloomberg
Equity Research
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Credicorp
Graa Y Montero
BBVA Banco Continental
Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde
Alicorp
Volcan Compaia Minera
Intercorp Financial Services
Ferreycorp
Buenaventura
Unin Andina De Cementos
Luz Del Sur
Minsur
Cementos Pacasmayo
Edegel
Casa Grande
Inretail Per
Rio Alto
Maple Energy
Refineria La Pampilla
Corporacion Aceros Arequipa
Sector
Financiero
Construccin
Financiero
Minera
Industrial
Minera
Financiero
Maquinaria
Minera
Construccin
Electricidad
Minera
Construccin
Electricidad
Agricultura
Retail
Minera
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas
Construccin
Peso
15.72%
11.30%
9.28%
8.72%
8.53%
6.99%
6.60%
5.22%
5.12%
4.52%
3.71%
2.71%
2.63%
2.28%
1.88%
1.63%
0.92%
0.87%
0.71%
0.64%
Valorizacin
Kallpa SAB
Kallpa SAB
Consenso
Kallpa SAB
Kallpa SAB
Kallpa SAB
Consenso
Kallpa SAB
Kallpa SAB
Consenso
Consenso
Consenso
Consenso
Consenso
Consenso
Consenso
Kallpa SAB
Kallpa SAB
Consenso
Consenso
Valor
Valor de Mercado
Fundamental
30/10/2013
155.00
140.50
11.36
11.78
7.33
6.47
26.55
25.90
9.75
8.65
1.85
1.32
34.90
33.60
2.50
1.81
18.80
14.58
4.08
3.60
9.94
9.70
2.01
1.36
7.46
6.62
2.75
2.54
12.31
9.09
19.18
16.45
4.34
1.73
1.27
0.62
0.79
0.36
1.00
0.73
Upside
10.3%
-3.6%
13.3%
2.5%
12.7%
40.2%
3.9%
38.1%
28.9%
13.2%
2.4%
48.0%
12.7%
8.1%
35.4%
16.6%
150.9%
104.8%
119.4%
37.0%
Equity Research
900%
800%
+904%
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
+297%
200%
+240%
100%
Ponderacin
BAP
ALICORC1
GRAMONC1
CPACASC1
LUSURC1
TOTAL
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
jul-13
ene-13
jul-12
ene-12
jul-11
ene-11
jul-10
ene-10
jul-09
ene-09
jul-08
ene-08
jul-07
ene-07
jul-06
ene-06
0%
Cartera - Minera
Precio de
Compra
19.01
1.33
0.40
1.71
2.20
Precio de Rentabilidad
Empresa
Venta
(en S/.)
140.50
8.65
11.78
6.62
9.70
496%
550%
2845%
287%
341%
904%
BVN
CVERDEC1
SCCO
VOLCABC1
MILPOC1
TOTAL
Ponderacin
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Precio de
Compra
13.05
3.06
6.56
0.20
1.07
Precio de Rentabilidad
Venta
(en S/.)
14.58
25.90
28.95
1.32
2.07
-10%
583%
256%
560%
93%
297%
TC al 01/01/06: 3.4205
TC al 30/10/13: 2.7603
Fuente: Bloomberg
Equity Research
200%
150%
%C. Base
% INCA
100%
127.75%
10.30%
50%
Rend.
0%
2010
2011
Watchlist 130.56%
-1.35%
27.78% -21.32%
56.67% -21.23%
6.60% -16.15%
INCA
Valor / Accin
RIO
BAP
BVN
PML
TV
GRAMONC1
ALICORC1
FERREYC1
Total
# Acciones
7,468
262
1,070
60,712
35,849
10,036
11,712
52,482
Precio
Compra
5.04
143.61
35.17
0.62
1.05
9.57
8.20
1.83
Peso
inicial
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
12.5%
100.00%
2013
oct-13
jul-13
abr-13
ene-13
oct-12
jul-12
abr-12
ene-12
oct-11
jul-11
abr-11
ene-11
oct-10
jul-10
abr-10
ene-10
-50%
2012
Cartera
Inicial - USD
37,641
37,641
37,641
37,641
37,641
37,641
37,641
37,641
301,130
Precio de
cierre
1.73
140.50
14.58
0.40
0.93
11.78
8.65
1.81
Cartera
Cierre - USD
12,920
36,826
15,604
24,285
33,339
42,829
36,703
34,414
236,921
% YTD
-65.7%
-2.2%
-58.5%
-35.5%
-11.4%
13.8%
-2.5%
-8.6%
Equity Research
11
Conclusiones
1. Los precios de las acciones se mueven en base a fundamentos.
Crecimiento del PBI
Generacin de caja de las empresas
Percepcin de riesgo
Equity Research
12
August 2011
Noviembre 2013