Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal Section B 34 (2014)

ISBN 978-88-548-7674-3 ISSN 1824-5463-14005 DOI 10.4399/97888548767437 pag. 67-80

Safety evaluation:
a new operating speed model for two-lane, undivided rural roads
F. G. Pratic1

M. Giunta2

DIEES Department University Mediterranea of Reggio Calabria

Via Graziella, Feo di Vito 89100 Reggio Calabria
email: filippo.pratico@unirc.it
2
DICEAM Department University Mediterranea of Reggio Calabria
Via Graziella, Feo di Vito 89100 Reggio Calabria
email: marinella.giunta@unirc.it
subm. 9th January 2014

approv. after rev. 13rd May 2014

Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to examine the influence of road alignment on vehicle operating speed.
The authors propose and validate a new operating speed model in which the geometric features of an
alignment and the lengths of its elements (curve, tangent) are considered. The results demonstrate that grade,
radius, and length affect driver perception and operating speeds and are relevant to safety analysis methods.
In contrast, the geometric features of previous and oncoming elements, although essential for an accurate
analysis of the single locations and sections, had a negligible statistical influence on operating speed. The
paper provides a set of analytical tools for predicting driver behaviour and speed in a given section based on
the alignment features (previous and oncoming elements included). Furthermore, a framework for ranking
and screening the factors that affect speed profiles is presented. Finally, the model can be used in safety
evaluation of horizontal curves and tangents on rural undivided roads.
Keywords driver behaviour, operating speed, road alignment, safety

1. Introduction and objectives of the research

Drivers manage the road environment as it varies in complexity by making adjustments to
their behaviour based on a number of parameters (workload, posted limits, perceived risk, road
type, traffic density, vehicle types, etc.) [42]. Cafiso and La Cava [9], analysed seven parameters
as driving performance indicators. The maximum driving speed differential between two
successive elements and between the average section speed and the minimum single element
speed were chosen as driving performance indicators since they were not correlated and agreed
statistically with the accident history. Threshold values were identified for the identification of
those elements characterized by acceptable (good), reasonable (fair), or intolerable (poor)
alignment inconsistencies. Cafiso and Cerni [8], proposed a model of driver behaviour in terms of
speeds on two-lane rural roads. Averaged horizontal curvature and averaged vertical grade were
used. The model was obtained through GPS sampling of the positions of several test drivers who
travelled several different roads in both directions and allows the estimation of a continuous speed
profile that depends not only on the spot geometry of the section of the road in which the driver is
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Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal Section B 34 (2014)

traveling but also on the horizontal and vertical alignment of the road already travelled and to be
travelled. Several studies conducted by Solomon [41], Nilsson [31], Aljanahi et al. [4], Quimby,
et al. [39], Elvik, et al. [13], Aarts et al. [2], and Lamm et al. [24] correlated speed with crash
rates. Further, it is widely recognised the importance of operating speeds for design consistency
and in order to establish a comprehensive safety strategy for rural roads. Operating speed,
indicated as V85, is defined as the 85-th percentile of the speed distribution, under free flow
conditions, on clean, wet road surfaces. V85 represents the speed scenario in a given road section
[16, 20, 32]. Several models of two-lane rural roads have been developed over the past several
decades [15, 16, 22, 23, 26, 28]. Operating speeds were found to depend on road alignment [3, 6,
10, 15, 18, 19, 21, 25, 33, 36]. Pratic and Giunta [37], proposed a new model for low volume
roads. DAndrea et al. [12], set out a fuzzy prediction model to identify the characteristics of the
road environment that mostly affect operating speeds. Abbas et al. [1], focused on 85th percentile
operating speed models at mid-curve, based on approach speed and radius. These studies
demonstrate the importance of considering the conditions of alignment preceding a horizontal
element as well as the overall alignment of the road to better estimate the driver behaviour and
operating speed in a current horizontal element.
In the context of previous studies, this paper focuses on the influence of road alignment on
driver behaviour and operating speed (V85). In particular, this study deals with the explanatory
potential of the length of an element (curve or tangent).
The objectives and scopes of this paper are to: i) describe the experimental methodology used
to collect the speed data along a six- kilometres roadway section in Italy; ii) formalise models for
predicting the influence of road alignment on operating speed; iii) deal with the explanatory
potential of the length of an element (curve or tangent).
2. Experiments, analysis, and discussion
2.1. Data collection
An experimental survey was carried out on the road SP21 (two-lane rural road in the Province
of Reggio Calabria, southern Italy; traffic volume which usually allows free-flow speeds; grade
covers a range of 10.0%; positive uphill grade in one direction; negative downhill grade in the
opposite direction). There are no spiral curves, the general condition of the pavement is good, and
the average pavement width is 6.00 m. Speed data were preliminarily collected at six sections
(both directions at each section) using a speed laser gun (midpoints of the curves and tangents).
Previous investigations demonstrated that the accuracy and precision of this method is optimal
when laser gun and car direction are coincident (i.e., at 0 or 180; only angles in the range 0 10
or 180 10 were used; accuracy of the measurements within 2 km/h, see Pratic and Giunta,
[38]). Time headway was greater than 8 seconds (free flow conditions, see Moses and Mtoi [29]).
This preliminary investigation yielded a standard deviation of 69 km/h, and the coefficient of
variation ranged from 0.13 to 0.17. Under the hypotheses of normality [5, 27], the minimum
sample size required (errors due to sampling lower than 2 km/h) was derived according to [35]:
n

K 2 V 2 2  U 2
2e

(1)

where e=2 km/h, K=1.96 (a confidence level of 95% was chosen), V=9.15 km/h (>9, where 9
is the upper limit of the obtained range of standard deviation), and U=1.04 (sample size required
for the 85-th percentile speed). As a consequence, a sample size of 125 was chosen.
This sample size was successfully verified ex-post after the real survey.
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Speed data were collected at 74 sites (in both directions). For each site (curve or tangent), at
least 125 car speeds were measured for each direction. As for tangents, note that authors assessed
that points under investigation were out of acceleration and deceleration lengths. The speeds of
buses, motorcycles and trucks were not considered. All measurements were collected under free
flow conditions, with the aim of including only drivers who were driving at their personally
selected speed [39], in the daytime and under dry pavement conditions.
2.2. Data analysis
Table 1 summarizes the geometric features and operating speeds of the road under
investigation. Note that due to the high variability of grades (from -10% to 10%), horizontal radii
(from 18 to 148 m) and element lengths (from 8 to 245 m), vehicles can undergo very different
conditions when passing from one location to the successive. As a consequence particular
attention was paid to assess the main factors affecting V85 variance. In more detail, attention was
focused to the improvement of the balance between terms representing the abovementioned
general character of the alignment and terms specifically related to the single stretch under
consideration. Data were analysed by referring to the influence of the main parameters. The
conceptual framework was as follows: i) evaluating the effects of the curvature (1/R); ii)
evaluating the effects of the grade (g); iii) evaluating the effects of the length (L) of a given
alignment element on the operating speed; iv) assessing the relevance of the previous alignment
elements on the operating speed; v) evaluating the effects of the oncoming alignment elements on
the operating speed; vi) summarizing the effect of each factor; vii) analysing the superposition of
effects.
In more detail (points 1 to 3), attention was focused: i) to find subsets of data within which
both g and L were approximately constant and to analyse V85 versus 1/R; ii) to find subsets of
data within which both 1/R and L were approximately constant and to analyse V85 versus g; iii)
to find subsets of data within which both 1/R and g were approximately constant to analyse V85
versus L. After the analyses, data were grouped again to illustrate the overall effect of each of the
three variables. Figure 1 illustrates the overall effect of curvature (1/R, m1, x-axis) on the
operating speed (V85, y-axis, km/h). As expected, a monotonically decreasing behaviour was
observed. The values of the operating speed when 1/R = 0 illustrate the range of variation of
speeds along the tangent.
Tab.1 - Data and statistics of SP 21

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V85 (km/h)

100
80
60
40
20
0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

-1

1/R (m )

Fig. 1 curvature vs V85

V85 (km/h)

100
80
60
40
20
-15 -10

-5

10

15

g (% )

Fig. 2 grade vs V85

V85 (Km/h)

100
80
60
40
20
20

40

60

80

100

L (m)

Fig. 3 L vs V85

Figure 2 shows the effects of grade (g, x-axis, %) on V85 (y-axis, km/h), whereas Figure 3
shows the correlation between the length of the i-th element of the alignment (L, x-axis, m) and
its corresponding operating speed (V85, y-axis, km/h). A negative correlation between grade and
V85 was observed. A weak positive correlation between L and V85 was observed.
3. Modeling
This section deals with data modeling. Overall, authors formalised ad hoc equations based on:
i) data interpretation and fitting; ii) need to meet expectations based on data interpretation; iii)
literature analysis.
3.1. Basics
As is well known, motor vehicle crashes happen more frequently and are more severe on
horizontal curves [34].
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Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal Section B 34 (2014)

Based on a literature analysis [6, 15], the first operating speed prediction model considered in
this study was the following:
V 85

Rd

b

(2)

where the coefficient a tunes the weight of the main variable, R (radius), d is a scale factor,
and a (<0) and d (>0) influence the effects of the horizontal alignment on the operating speed.
Low values of a and d yield large effects on V85. The parameter b is the value to which V85
approaches when 1/R tends to zero. As a consequence, this value relates to the so-called desired
speed (McLean, 1979). Under these assumptions, the correlation yielded a poor value of Rsquared, 0.37 (a=34; b=53; d=0.47), (see point 4 in Figure 8). Other models in literature
correlate V85 with the CCR (curvature change rate) or the DC (degree of curvature) but in this
case, considered the absence of spiral curves, it appeared more suitable the use the above model.
To obtain information about the grade effect, the following equation was optimized:
V 85

bcg

(3)

where c is a coefficient, and g (%) indicates the grade [7, 30].

In this case, the percentage of explained variance was 24%, with b=50 and c=0.48 (see point
3 in Fig. 8). The parameter values were obtained by using the least squares method. Note that by
XVLQJDQRQOLQHDUGHSHQGHQFHRQJJkWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIH[SODLQHGYDULDQFHGLGQWLQFUHDVH
(b=50, c = 1.05, K = 0.7).
3.2. Effect of the length of the element
The equations above described do not consider the extension (length or/and travel time) of the
element under examination. In contrast, many studies [18, 30, 36, 40] confirmed that long
elements influence the operating speed to a greater extent. In more detail, data here gathered
suggested that, due to driver risk perception, the higher the length of the tangent the higher the
operating speed of drivers. Furthermore, drivers behaviour in high-radius curves resulted similar
to the one held in tangents. Due to the above facts, it seems unrealistic to model driver behaviour
in terms of the sequence acceleration to the maximum allowed speed - constant speed deceleration, where the maximum allowed speed depends on legal or/and design instances and not
on real, perceived risks. A tool that manages the speeds by controlling the element length is,
therefore, needed for both curves and tangents [30]. A framework that accounts for these aspects
has been here addressed by introducing the concept of element relevance. In more detail, the
element parameter Ei is here introduced as follows:
Ei

1

L
1  i
f

0 d Ei d 1 .

(4)

where Li (m) indicates the length of the i-th element, and f (positive, m) and n (positive,
dimensionless) are model parameters to be estimated. Note that L affects the speed by which Ei
approaches 1. High n and low f yield a high speed. Under these conditions, the element parameter,
Ei, varies over the range above stated. Note that high lengths Li yield a high element parameter
value. In particular, if Li tends to infinity, the element factor tends to 1. In contrast, a low Li yields
element factor values closer to zero. Note that the main drawback of Ei is that it doesnt depend on
the element radius.
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Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal Section B 34 (2014)

In contrast, data gathered, visual observations of driver behaviours on the road under
examination and international literature [11] suggest that the effects of acceleration will be higher
(and, consequently, will have a higher impact on safety) on tangents or high-radius curves. To this
end, let us introduce the effective element coefficient, ]i, defined by means of a sigmoid factor
F(R):
(5)
[ i F ( Ri ) E i
where:
F ( Ri )

1
R *  Ri
1  exp
G

(6)

Combining these expressions (namely, equations 4, 5, 6), the following algorithm may be used
to consider the effects of the length of a tangent (or a high-radius curve) on a drivers behaviour:

V 85

1
1

e
b  1 

L 1  exp R *  R

1 
G
f

(7)

Note that the higher the element length, L, the higher the radius, R, the closer to b+e is the
operating speed (maximum V85). In contrast, the lower the element length, L, the lower the
radius, R, the closer to b is the operating speed (minimum V85). Furthermore, note that, in
practice, low radius-curves (R<R*) arent affected by e.
In the above equations, e is a calibration factor that affects the maximum magnitude of the
effect (when L and R tend to infinity, i.e., for long tangents), R* (where SRL) distinguishes
between low- and high-radius curves, and G is a coefficient (dimension: length; unit of measure:
m) that accounts for the gradualness (gradient) of this transition. Higher values of G yield more
gradual transitions. As an example, Figure 4 illustrates the variations of V85 as a function of the
radius, R, for different values of the parameter L (length of the element), for a threshold value
(R*) of 60 m. Figure 5 shows the dependence of V85 on the length, L, of a given element of the
alignment. Note that for tangent or high-radius sections, the higher is the length the higher is the
speed. On the contrary, for low-radius sections (R<R*), this doesnt happen. Note that in Figures
4 and 5, b (the constant in equation 7) was not considered. Higher radii with a given L give higher
values of V85. Note that the effect of the length of the element with very small radii results
negligible.

V85 (Km/h)

10
L = 10 m
L = 50 m
L = 100 m
5

0
0

25

50
R (m)

75

Fig. 4 R vs V85 (term b = 0)

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Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal Section B 34 (2014)

V85 (Km/h)

10

R= 20 m
R = 60 m
R = 100 m

0
0

25

50

75

100

L(m)

Fig. 5 L vs V85 (term b = 0; R*=60)

This performance of the algorithm for small radii agrees with driver perception of run-out
risks. Indeed, on horizontal curves, because of the limited sight distance and the increased
probability of skidding, increased accident rates are observed and the majority of accidents on
horizontal curves concern single vehicle run-off accidents and head-on collisions. Nonetheless, it
is noted that despite this increased risk perception for small-radius curves, research results show
that the number of road accidents still tends to increase when the radii of horizontal curves
decrease [14, 17, 43]. Figures 6 and 7 show the corresponding first derivatives (V85', y-axis,
1000/h, where 1h=3600s) as a function of R and L, respectively (x-axes, m). The effect of R on
the first derivative (i.e. V85 variations) is always negligible, except for radii close to R*.
Furthermore, the first derivative decreases for increasing L and this fact agrees with the
superposition of psychological aspects and car performance. Under these hypotheses, the
overdetermined system (174 equations in six variables) was solved using the least squares
method. Data fitting yielded an R-square value of 0.37, with b=50, f=6.8104, n=1.0, R*=95m,
G=1, e=3590 (see point 5 in Fig. 8).

V85' (1000/h)

0.6

L = 10 m
L = 50 m
L = 100 m

0.4
0.2
0.0
0

25

50

75

100

R(m)

V85' (1000/h)

Fig. 6 R vs V85' (1h=3600 s)

0.6

R=60 m
R=100 m

0.4
0.2
0.0
0

25

50
L(m)

Fig. 7 L vs V85'

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100

Advances in Transportation Studies an international Journal Section B 34 (2014)

0.8
0.6
0.4

gt
h

le
n

iu
s

ra
d

co
m
.e

sl
op

on

pr
ev

i.
e

ns
t

0.0

le
m

0.2

co

le
m

R-square

1.0

Fig. 8 R-Square values corresponding to each factor

It is noted that in this case (in which only the effect of the length of the current element was
considered), R* assumed a value two times higher than the average horizontal radius (i.e., 42m,
see Table 1).
3.3. Effect of the previous element
The effect of the (i-1)-th radius on the i-th operating speed was considered using the following
equation (where a and d are calibration coefficients, as in eq. 2):
V 85

a'
b
Rid'1

(8)

In this case, an R-square close to zero was obtained (see point 1 in Fig. 8). Note that, for the
considered road, the length of the previous element had a negligible impact on explained variance.
3.4. Effect of the oncoming element
Following data analysis, the effects of the oncoming (i+1)-th alignment element on the i-th
operating speed were incorporated according to the following hypotheses: i) If the (i+1)-th
element is similar (in curvature) to the i-th element, its additional influence will be negligible; ii)
If the (i+1)-th curvature radius is higher than the previous i-th element, its influence will be
negligible because the operating speed will be controlled by the current curvature; iii) If the (i+1)th curvature radius is much lower than that of the previous i-th element, its influence will be
significant, and it will affect V85i, especially when the sight distance allows the driver to
recognize the effective curvature of the element. Indeed, an important safety effect concerns the
presence of a curve (especially for low radii curves) after a tangent and drivers behaviour is
affected by the perception of an oncoming risk [18]. In light of the above hypotheses, attention
was focused on setting out functional forms able to fit experimental data and observations.
Consequently, the influence of future elements was described according to the following
equation:

1
1
1
V 85
 h
b
n
1
Ri 1 Ri
Ri 1

1 

Ri

(9)

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where the coefficients n1 (dimensionless), h (kmm/h, where 1h=3600s), and b(km/h) are
determined by optimization. h affects the maximum magnitude of an effect, whereas n1 affects the
speed of the transition, from 0 to 1 of the expression in square brackets containing Ri+1/Ri.
The following consequences apply to low radii (Ri+1) elements:
lim V 85  b 

Ri of

h
Ri 1

(10)

The road and data set under investigation did not yield a satisfactory correlation under these
conditions (see point 2 in Fig. 8). Note that the interaction among the different curvatures of the
alignment was considered in three main steps: previous (i-1), current (i), oncoming (i+1). In more
detail, differences, and synergetic influences were addressed by using three independent
coefficients (a, a, h, respectively), which operated on three different radii (Ri-1, Ri, Ri+1), as
well on one combined interaction (Ri+1, vs. Ri).
3.5. Influence of each factor
Figure 8 summarizes the analysis conducted to obtain information about the influence of each
of the following factors on the i-th V85: 1) Ri-1; 2) Ri+1; 3) g; 4) Ri; 5) Li. The trivial case of V85=b
(point 0 in Fig. 8) is reported only for comparison. It should be noted that the length alone may
contribute appreciably to the percentage of V85 variance.
Furthermore, the grade itself explains around 24% of the variance. This fact highlights the
importance of considering grades when analysing operating speeds and safety in mountainous
terrain.
3.6. Superposition effect and results of fitting model
Finally, the model was validated by considering four progressive models (see Tables 2 and 3
and Figures 9 and 10) that combined each contribution. Note that all the models are valid for both
tangents and curves.
Table 2 lists the models considered. For the sake of completeness all the models were reported
(even in the case supplementary parts of the equation didnt pursue any significant optimization of
data fitting).
In each case, data were examined using an algorithm that differed from the previous in only
one component. R-squared values ranged from 0.37 to 0.69.

Predicted V85 [Km/h]

100
80
60
40
20
20

40

60

80

100

Observed V85 [km/h]

Fig. 9 V85 Scatter plot (independent variable: Radius)

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Predicted V85 [Km/h]

100
80
60
40
20
20

40

60

80

100

Observed V85 [km/h]

Fig. 10 V85 Scatter plot (independent variables: current and previous radii, grade, length)
Tab.2 - Models considered

Tab.3 - Contributions of factors to V85

Present
Past
Future

(Additional) Factor
Radius
Grade
Element coefficient
Previous element
Oncoming element
Unexplained variance

Contribution to V85 Variance

0.37
0.18
0.13
0.01
0.00
0.31

Total contribution %
68%
1%
0%
31%

The significance of each correlation (p-values) is summarized in the last column of Table 2,
and represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis (variables are not correlated) when
the null hypothesis is actually true (Type I error, or false positive determination). Small pvalues indicate the significant results. All correlations were significant (at a 1% level of
significance). Figures 9 and 10 plot the correlation between true and predicted V85 values. The
equality line indicates a perfect correlation. It is noted that gathered data were divided into two
sets. The first one was used for model calibration and the second one was used to derive the
predicted V85 values. The results indicate that (see also Table 3): i) For a simple model that does
not account for the influence of grade (c=0), agreement between the model and experimental data
was not good.
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The curvature (1/R) of the single element in this case did not sufficiently describe the factors
contributing to operating speed. A threshold was observed in Figure 9, corresponding to the value
of b (53 km/h). This value is close to the average speed. This fact demonstrates the assumption
that b is related to the desired speed; ii) The correlation between model and experimental data
improved appreciably when the influence of grade was considered. An appreciable range of
grades was considered in the data (mountainous context); iii) The introduction of the element
coefficient, ]i, as a correction factor, tangibly and substantially tuned the effects of length on
operating speeds. The estimated and actual speeds yielded a correlation that agreed closely with
the equality line. The R-squared values increased appreciably (see Tables 2 and 3 and Figures 9
and 10); iv) Consideration of the curvature of the previous element (eq. 11) slightly increased the
coefficient of determination (see Table 3). The consideration of the curvature of the (i+1)-th
element did not substantially change the correlation between the experimental data and the model
with respect to the case in which only the previous element was considered.
4. Examples of pratical application of the model
The proposed model allows to accurately predict the operating speed for both short and long
tangents. Indeed, short tangents are often present between two curves, and the operating speeds on
such very short elements strongly depend on the previous and successive elements. Other
instances relate to long tangents characterized by operating speed profiles that differ substantially
from those typical of previous and oncoming curves as well as from the profiles of design speeds.
Potential safety adjustments can be made. For example, the maximum allowable length of a
tangent can be determined, and this length depends on the maximum allowable difference in
speeds on adjacent elements. Under the hypotheses of Lamm et al., 1998, by comparing the
design and operating speeds in a tangent (1st Lamm criterion (middle of the tangent, see equation
7), it results:
Vd  V 85 #

g a R  f t  tgE   aL  b  1  1  L

1

e  cg

(11)

and

Vd  V 85 # Vd  b  1  1  L

n 1
e  cg
f

(12)

where Vd is the design speed, ga is the gravitational acceleration, ft is the side friction factor,
tgE is the superelevation rate, R is the radius of the curve that precedes the tangent, a indicates the
longitudinal acceleration (0.8m/s2 in Italian standards), and L is the length of the tangent. To this
end, note that the plot of the 85th percentile speed versus inferred design speed can present two
different domains: i) a first domain in which V85 exceeds Vd (lower speeds); ii) a second domain
in which the opposite occurs [30]. From the comparison between the i-th and the (i-1)-th
operating speed (independent tangent vs. successive curve) (2nd Lamm criterion) it results:
'V 85

 a
1
d  1 
Li
R i

1  f

n 1

 a Li 1
1
1







1
1
1
e
e

e
n
n
d
1  exp( R *  Ri )
Li 1 Ri  R* R i f


1
G
f

(13)

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Note that: a) equations (1113) permit to derive the maximum allowable length (L) in order to
obtain a speed difference lower than a given limit (for example, 20 km/h) [23]; b) the term
containing e and the term that depends on Ri-1 are positive (a<0) in equation 16. It follows that
small values of the (i-1)-th radius and large tangent lengths originate large absolute differences
and small safety potentials for a given independent tangent (a threshold of 20 km/h is usually
assumed in comparing successive operating speeds). To this end, for a given speed threshold and
curvature, equation (16) can provide maximum allowable length of the tangent. Therefore, the
above model provides a tool for analysing the safety potential in a curve or tangent.
5. Conclusions
The following conclusions may be drawn from an analysis of the data under investigation:
grade, horizontal curvature, and length of an element within the road alignment under
consideration are the main factors that influence speed behaviour. Specifically, grade
greatly influences operating speed, and the synergistic effects of grade and length may
potentially affect the safety of rural roads in mountainous terrain;
the lengths of elements in curves or tangents are relevant in terms of driver perception
and behaviour, especially when comparing short and long tangents (or/and high-radius
curves);
by introducing element and logistic factors, driver speed choice and as a consequence the
relationship V85 vs. 1/R were tuned according to the element length. The model
provided a reasonable, albeit simplified, representation of the speed profiles on
horizontal alignments consisting of long tangents and/or long high radius curves;
safety analysis techniques and the modelling of driver performance can be improved
through the use of the above algorithms and concepts. Speeds can be accurately
predicted for both short and long tangents. Indeed, short tangents are often present
between two curves, and the operating speeds on such very short elements strongly
depend on the previous and successive elements. Other instances relate to long tangents
characterized by operating speed profiles that differ substantially from those typical of
previous and oncoming curves as well as from the profiles of design speeds. Potential
safety adjustments can be made. For example, the maximum allowable length of a
tangent can be determined, and this length depends on the maximum allowable
difference in speeds on adjacent elements;
under the above boundary conditions (lengths and radii can vary over the range 0WKH
algorithms described here provide a basis for developing a general framework that may
be applied to other cases as well;
although previous and oncoming geometric features may be essential for the accurate
analysis in a given section, from a statistical standpoint, the influence of the geometric
features of the current element prevails over the influence of both past and oncoming
elements.
Authors are aware that further research is needed on the above issues and a wider sample for
practical application will be required (alignment, terrain, users).
References
1. Abbas, S.K.S., Adnan, M.A. and Endut, I.R., 2011. Exploration of 85th Percentile Operating Speed
Model on Horizontal Curve: A Case Study for Two-Lane Rural Highways, Procedia Social and
Behavioral Sciences, 16, p. 352363.

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