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Introduction
Fixed-income investments pay a specified amount of interest at regular intervals until
maturity when the original principal is also returned. There are many risks that fixed-income
investors face such as interest rate, where the asset prices can fluctuate in value given a
change in the interest rate; credit risk, more specifically for non-governmental issues where
the issuer is unable to make interest and/or principal payments; liquidity risk, due to the lack
of trades in the market of that particular security, etc.
One other particular threat to fixed-income investors is the risk of inflation. Inflation is
defined as the increase in the price of goods and services and subsequently, a fall in
purchasing power. There are some predominant accepted measures of inflation used in
different countries; the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Retail Price Index (RPI), the
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the Producer Price Index (PPI). These indices
notionally cover a basket of certain goods and services bought by households (see figure 1).
They are weighted to their average share of a household expenditure. The items in the basket
are reviewed every year to reflect the change in the market and consumer spending patterns.
Factoring in an inflation rate, say 2%, the real interest return would only be 8.9%
[(1+11.1%/1+2%)-1].
Real Rate of Return= [(1+r)/(1+i)] -1
Where, r: nominal rate of return and i: inflation rate
This can be approximately stated as:
Real Rate of Return Nominal Rate of Return Inflation Rate
Figure 2 shows how the effect of inflation, using RPI, has destroyed over 40% of the
purchasing power of the British sterling over the last 20 years.
Figure 2: Data from the Office of National Statistics, base of 100 in 1991
General Structure
TIPS and IL-Gilts are offered at a minimum purchase price of $1000/ 1000 with a fixed
semi-annual coupon rate. TIPS issued quoted price is the real price and is specifically
indexed to Consumer Price All Urban Non-Seasonally Adjusted Index (CPI-U) in United
Stated. IL-Gilts are traded in the clean price are indexed to the Retail Price Index (RPI).
These two indexes have an issue metric of 100 and change when inflation goes up or down
(the RPI was re-based in January 1987 from 394.5 to 100). RPI usually shows a higher rate of
inflation than CPI as it includes mortgage interest payments, house depreciation, council tax,
TV licences etc.
The chart below summarises the main difference between US and UK IPS:
US
Linked to CPI-U
Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities (TIPS)
UK
Linked to RPI
Deflation floor
No deflation floor
US TIPS
Adopting the Canadian Model, US TIPS trade in real space with reference to an index. A
daily reference index is calculated with the index 3-month previously, for example, the index
level for 01 October 1996 would be used for 01 January 1997 issue. The reference indices for
intervening days are calculated as follows:
Index = CPIm-3 + [(t-1)/ D] x (CPIm-2 CPIm-3 )
Where m= settlement month, D= number of days in month m, t= day of the settlement
month
For example, to calculate the CPI-U at a specific date, 07 January 1997, we take the CPI-U
for 01 January 1997, 158.3, and the CPI-U 01 February 1997, 158.6. Taking the difference of
0.3 (158.6158.3), we divide this with the number of days in the month, 31, to give us
0.0096774. Finally, we would have to multiply the result with 6, because we are calculating
the index level for 07 January, 0.05806 (0.0096774 x 6). This result is added to the index
level of 01 January to give us 158.35806.
The changes in the CPI-U during the lifetime of TIPS are incorporated into an index ratio.
Index Ratio = Reference CPIt / Reference CPIbase
This ratio is applied to adjust the principal for any rise in inflation
Principal = Face Value x Index Ratio
Index Ratio
Semi Annual Coupon Rate
Principal balance
218.7644 / 184.7742
(1/2)x2%x1.183955
1.183955x100
1.18%x100
Coupon
Or
1%x118.396
Coupon
Figure 4: Index ratio calculation example
1.183955
1.18%
$118.396
118
118
To explain figure 4, on 15 January 2004, the US Treasury issued 10-year TIPS, 2% coupon,
15 January 2014 maturity. The reference CPI-U was 184.7742 at the issuance date of the 10year bond. Six years on, 18 January 2011, the reference CPI-U was 218.7644. The index ratio
was therefore 1.18396. The semi-annual coupon payment was 1.18396% and the principal
balance was $118.396 for every $100 of notional purchased at issue.
At maturity, investors of TIPS receive the greater of the inflation-adjusted principal or the par
value. This is known as floor:
Principal at Maturity = Notional x Max [(Lb/La-1)-K, 0]
Where K= pre-agreed inflation threshold and a to b= interval over which inflation is
measured
As the price of TIPS is made by multiplying the stated value at issuance with the index ratio,
the nominal prices are defined as the real prices plus the lagged actual inflation rates. In some
cases there is also a premium for the liquidity risk.
The securities are indexed to inflation by adjusting the principal outstanding per unit of the
par value. The coupon rate is fixed but the semi-annual coupon payments are determined by
multiplying the coupon rate with the inflation adjusted principal.
Time
(Period)
Standard Inflation
Coupon
Principal
($)
1
2
3
4
5
2.25%
2.25%
2.25%
2.25%
2.25%
1000
1020
1050.6
1092.624
1081.69776
0%
2%
3%
4%
-1%
Principal
Adjustment
($)
0
20
30.6
42.024
-10.92624
Standard
Portion
($)
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
Inflation
Portion ($)
0
0.45
0.6885
0.82754
-0.2342754
Total
Payment
($)
22.5
22.95
23.1885
23.42754
22.2657246
Figure 5: Table to show the adjustment of a 5-year TIP, coupon rate 2.25%
Figure 5 illustrates the breakdown the standard portion with the inflation portion. With the
observed fixed standard portion (reflective of the coupon rate), we can see how the total
payment changes accordingly with the effect of inflation through the inflation portion.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Principal Uplift
Unadjusted Principal
Coupon Indexation
Real Coupon
1
Year (Period)
UK IL-Gilts
Instead of trading in real space, UK IL-Gilts trade in nominal space so the inflation value of
the next coupon is needed to allow for accrued interest to be calculated. The indexation is
therefore completed with an 8-month lag. This means that the principal value of the IL-Gilt
July 2008 issued in July 1983 will be uplifted by the percentage increase in the RPI between
November 1982 and November 2007.
The semi-annual coupons are calculated as follows:
Coupon Paid = (C/2) x (RPIm-8 / RPIi-8)
Where m = payment month and i = issue month
Accrued interest is calculated on the money value and not the real value of the coupon. As
mentioned, unlike TIPS, there is no floor in the event of deflation, so at redemption, similarly
to the coupon, the cash value is calculated as:
Redemption Value = 100(RPIm-8 / RPIi-8)
Inflation Expectation
An understanding of market inflation expectations is of use to economists and policy makers
and the determined yield against the inflation target gives an indication of how credible to
target is itself.
For TIPS, the breakeven inflation (BEI) is the difference between the yield on TIPS and a
comparable T-bond of the same maturity.
Breakeven Inflation = Treasury Bond Yield TIPS Yield
The BEI is further broken down into inflation expectation and a risk premium. Theoretically,
if investors believe inflation is higher than the current BEI, TIPS should be bought as they are
under-priced and vice versa. In case the metric exceed the actual inflation, conventional
bonds prices decrease whereas TIPS prices increase, because the risk premium that is paid for
was unneeded. However, when actual inflation is close to the predicted the returns of normal
and inflation protected bonds are closely correlated and we have minor fluctuations in their
prices.
For IL-Gilts, the Fisher Identity model is used. The inflation expectation is the spread
between the real yield on the IL-Gilt and the yield of a conventional gilt of the same maturity.
As IL-Gilts are traded with nominal prices, to derive the real yield metrics, we would need to
know the cash flows that are owned, which is uncertain. To overcome this problem, an
assumption is made termed money yield: assumes that RPI grows at a rate beyond the last
known value, currently 3% annually.
RPIt = RPIt-1 (1+f)1/12
Where f = money yield
The coupon payments and redemption value are mapped accordingly to their RPI assumption
From here the yield/ IRR can be estimated. Figure 7 illustrates this relationship.
Figure 8: Historical correlation between traditional inflation-hedging asset classes & TIPS
Although TIPS are directly linked with inflation, the correlation is low due to changes in
interest rate and other factors. It is also evident that using a shorter duration TIPS index, the
correlation between TIPS and inflation can be minimized; from 0.08 to 0.18. TIPS also have
relatively lower correlations with other asset classes. This makes TIPS (and generally other
IPS) an effective diversification tool; mitigating risk and improving returns. Factors that may
affect the demand for TIPS include inflation expectations, risk appetites, absolute real yield
levels, supply and expectation of higher CPI.
Over the long term, IPS have approximately the same returns as conventional bonds with
lower volatility, thus IPS can be, to a certain extent, superior. Some analyses propose that
conventional bonds should be completely replaced by IPS with respect to asset allocation, as
the combination of stocks, other real assets, and IPS could be optimal from a risk standpoint.
Figure 9 shows that for the same level of standard deviation, the portfolio offers higher
returns with IPS (assuming everything else constant). Another way to view this is that for the
same return, the portfolio has lower standard deviation with a combination of IPS and equity
than with conventional bonds and equity.
Inflation-Protected Security
Risk neutral investors would prefer this investment opportunity, or risk taking investors
would choose it as a diversification strategy for hedging against inflation. Governments can
also avoid paying the risk premium with the issuance of IPS, raising cheaper capital. The risk
premium is paid to conventional bond investors because of the potential risk in inflation.
The issuance of IPS could create positive government credibility and reduce sovereign risk.
Issuing IPS can be perceived as actively trying to bring down inflation and offering options
such as deflation floors shows the governments obligation to protect investors.
On the other hand, IPS are often criticised for being hard to calculate; mathematically they
are harder to quantify but conceptually there are less uncertainty as a product. IPS are less
liquid than conventional bonds as investors would look to hold them to the end of maturity,
reaping the benefits of real rate of returns. In addition, some IPS have only been recently
introduced, with short supply; its limited existence makes them less liquid as well as
competition against other traditional assets to hedge against inflation such as gold and
commodities.
Taxation on TIPS poses an issue as the appreciation in principal amount in the year it occurs.
This produces a phantom income that is subject to taxation. If high enough, investors may
experience negative cash flows. The lag between the inflation announcement and its impact is
another factor that could affect the returns and prices. In a stable inflationary economy, a 3 or
8-month lag would not sufficiently affect the return or price. However, given volatile
inflation rates, the lag can cause substantial changes, resulting in very inconsistent income.
Lastly, in the case of TIPS mutual funds, deflationary periods can lead to low or no
dividends, offering no protection, because the negative adjustments on income are measured
as negative income. Figure 12 summarises the benefits and challenges.
Japan JGBi
2008 due to the financial crisis and fears of deflation. Following a period of growth, they
were reissued in October 2013, this time incorporating a deflation floor. In case where the
indexation coefficient falls below 1 at maturity, the principal amount will be redeemed.
Following graphs illustrates the volatility of inflation for Japan.
One criticism of IPS is that they do more harm than good; issuing IPS means an increased
pressure for other assets to be linked to inflation also which was why before 2003, it was
illegal for any debt to be indexed in Germany.
There are currently four inflation-linked German bonds as shown in figure 16 and they were
first issued in 2006; the Currency Act of June 1948 generally prohibited the indexing of
contracts until its abolition in 1998. These instruments accounts for 4% of Federal
Governments Debt portfolio and the government also conducts secondary market operations
to support the liquidity for these securities. They are annually indexed to the European HVPI
which excludes tobacco and the redemption is at least par value.