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ISSN 1810-6358

viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_km<úCa


CDRI—Cambodia’s Leading Independent
Development Policy Research Institute

r)aykarN_fµI²sþIBIesdækic©km<úCa
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy

tula 2009 ¼ October 2009

saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang


pan; dalIs ¼ Phann Dalis
RsIu bu)öar½tñ ¼ Sry Bopharath
b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon Dorina

bkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig v:a vNѳ

PñMeBj km<úCa
Phnom Penh, Cambodia

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Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Postal Address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 Fax: (855-23) 880-734 E-mail: pubs@cdri.forum.org.kh. Web site: http://www.cdri.org.kh
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
karbkRsaytaragsMxan;² Highlights
This report describes some of the key economic
r)aykarN_enH bkRsayBIsUcnakresdækic©cMbg²mYycMnYnsMrab;km<úCa indicators for Cambodia and its main trading
nig bNþaRbeTsédKUBaNiC¢kmµmYycMnYn edayeRbobeFobtYelxkñúgExfµI² partners. It compares figures for the current
months of 2009 with those months in 2008.
enH CamYynwgExmun²kñúgqñaM2008 .
In the second quarter, fixed asset investment
enARtImasTI2 qñaM2009 GnumtivinieyaKKitCaRTBüskmµCab;lab;kñúg approvals for the garment sector rose from USD17
vis½ykat;edr ekIndl; 35landuløar eFobnwg 17landuløarkñúgRtImas m in the previous quarter to USD35 m. The
approvals, however, decreased by 27 percent
mun . b:uEnþGnumtivinieyaKenH Føak;cuH 27° eFobnwgRtImasTI2 qñaM compared with the same quarter in 2008.
2008 . In August, total foreign visitor arrivals to
kñúgExsIha cMnYnePJóvbreTssrubmkdl;km<úCa ekIn 5° eFobnwgExmun . Cambodia increased by 5.0 percent compared with
the previous month. Business arrivals rose by 1.3
cMnYnePJóvmkeFVICMnYj ekIn 1/3° nigePJóvmksRmaklMEh ekIn 5/0° percent and holiday arrivals by 5.0 percent, while
other arrivals doubled.
ehIyePJóvmkdl;kñúgrUbPaBepSg²eTot ekInmYyCaBIr .
In June, approvals for Phnom Penh villa and house
kñúgExmifuna témøGnumtiKeRmagsagsg;pÞH nigPUmiRKwHenAraCFanIPñMeBj construction declined slightly from the previous
Føak;cuHtictYc eFobnwgExmun edayFøak;cuHdl; 0/5landuløar . month, falling to USD0.5 m. An opposite trend
was evident in approvals for flat construction,
ninñakarenH KWpÞúyBIGnumtiKeRmagsagsg;pÞHElVg EdlekIneLIgBI which jumped from USD2.5 m to USD6.2 m.
2/5landuløar dl; 6/2landuløar . GnumtiKeRmagsagsg;epSg²eTot Other construction spiked from USD3.8 m to
USD17m.
ekInBI 3/8landuløar dl; 17landuløar .
In July, liquidity grew by 1.8 percent from the
kñúgExkkáda sac;R)ak;TMenr ekIn 1/8° eFobnwgExmun . témø previous month. Net foreign assets rose by 3.9
percent, while private sector credit fell 0.2 percent.
RTBüskmµbreTssuT§ ekIn 3/9° b:uEnþ\NTandl;vis½yÉkCn Føak;cuH Government deposits were down by 2.6 percent,
0/2° . R)ak;beBaØIrdæaPi)al Føak;cuH 2/6° rIÉbMNuldéTeTot ekIneLIg while other liabilities rose by 5.0 percent. During
the same month, the 12-month interest rate on riel
5/0° . kñúgExdEdl GRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaerolkñúgry³eBl 12Ex loans was 1.75 percent higher than in the previous
eLIg x<s;CagExmun 1/75° b:uEnþGRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaduløar month, while the rate on dollar loans was 0.8
percent lower than in the preceding month. The
cuHTabCagExmun 0/8° . GRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaerol KW 23° interest rate on riel loans was 23 percent, and on
ÉGRtakarR)ak;elIkm©ICaduløar KW 16° . dollar loans 16 percent
The value of the riel was down against the US
kñúgExkBaØa R)ak;erolFøak;éfø Tl;nwgduløarGaemrik eFobnwgExmun dollar in September compared with the preceding
month. It traded at KHR4161.3/USD. The riel was
edaybþÚr)an 4161/3erol¼duløarGaemrik . R)ak;erol bþÚr)an at KHR123.3 per Thai baht and at KHR23.4 per
123/3erol ¼)at nig 23/4erol¼100dug . 100 Vietnamese dong.
Cambodia’s total exports jumped from USD29 m
kñúgExkkáda karnaMecjsrubrbs;km<úCa sÞúHeLIgdl; 308landuløar in June to USD308 m in July. The surge was due
eFobnwg 29landuløar kñúgExmifuna edaysarCasMxan;karnaMecjxag mainly to a sudden increase of garments, from
USD12 m to USD288 m. Rubber exports rose 93
vis½ykat;edrekInxøaMgdl; 288landuløar eFobnwg 12landuløar percent to USD7.2 m, and fish 4.0 percent to
kñúgExmun. karnaMecjekAs‘U ekIneLIg 93° mkdl; 7/2landuløar USD0.4 m. Cigarette imports dropped by 31
percent and steel by 24 percent, while cement
nigRtIekIn 4° dl; 0/4landuløar . karnaMcUlplitpl)arI Føak;cuH imports rose by 73 percent.
31° EdkEfbcuH 24° b:uEnþkarnaMcUlsIum:g;t_ ekIneLIg 73° . In August, the year-on-year overall consumer price
kñúgExsIha GtiprNaéføTMnijeRbIR)as;BImYyqñaMeTAmYyqñaM man -2/9° inflation was -2.9 percent, a smaller decline than
the -3.9 percent in the previous month. Smaller
EdlCakarFøak;cuHtic ebIeFobnwg -3/9° kalBIExmun. muxTMnijesÞIrEt price declines were evident in almost all
components of the overall figure, namely food and
TaMgGs; kñúgtYelxsrubsuT§Føak;éføbnþic kñúgenaH mðÚbGaharnigePsC¢³Kµan non-alcoholic beverages (-2.3 percent),
CatiRsa ¬-2/3°¦ esvadwkCBa¢Ún ¬-13°¦ TUrKmnaKmn_ ¬-7/7°¦ transportation (-13 percent), communications (-7.7

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
karsRmaklMEhnigvb,Fm’ ¬-0/5°¦ . éføsMelokbMBak; nigRTnab;eCIg percent), recreation and culture (-0.5 percent).
Clothing and footwear rose 5.7 percent, household
ekIn 5/7° eRKOgtuTUnigRbtibtþikarkñúgpÞHekIn 6/6° karEfTaMsuxPaB furnishings and operations 6.6 percent, health care
ekIn 8/1° nigkarGb;rMekIn 14° . 8.1 percent and education services 14 percent.
In September, prices of diesel and gasoline both
kñúgExkBaØa éføeRbgm:as‘Ut nigsaMg ekIn 0/7° eFobnwgExmun . Ggár increased 0.7 percent from the previous month.
The rice price declined in Battambang (6.0
Føak;éføenAextþ)at;dMbg ¬6/0°¦ nigkMBg;s<W ¬24°¦ b:uEnþeLIgéfø percent) and Kompong Speu (24 percent).
However, it rose in Kampot (17 percent), while
enAkMBt ¬17°¦ ehIyvamanéføefr enAkMBg;cam esomrab remaining stable in Kompong Cham, Siem Reap
nigsVayerog . RtI eLIgéfø enAextþ)at;dMbg ¬5/0°¦ kMBg;s<W ¬14°¦ and Svay Rieng. The fish price increased in
Battambang (5.0 percent), Kompong Speu (14
nig kMBg;cam ¬15°¦ . kñúgExdEdl éføøsac;RCUk enAefr percent) and Kompong Cham (15 percent). During
enAextþ)at;dMbg kMBg;s<W kMBg;cam esomrab nigsVayerog b:uEnþekIneLIg the same period, pork’s price remained unchanged
in Battambang, Kompong Speu, Kompong Cham,
5° enAkMBt . Siem Reap and Svay Rieng, but rose in Kampot by
5.0 percent.
kñúgExsIha éføGgárnaMecjenATIpSaréf Føak;cuH 21° eFobnwgExmun dl; The price of rice exported from Thailand
404duløar¼etan. ninñakarenH vapÞúyBI éføekAs‘U nigRKab;sVaycnÞI . decreased by 21 percent from the previous month,
falling to USD404/tonne in August. The reverse
éføekAs‘UekIneLIg 14° nigRKab;sVaycnÞIekIn 7/5° . enAelITIpSar trend was seen in the prices of rubber and cashew
nuts. Rubber climbed by 14 percent and cashew
evotNam GgárcuHéfø 8/0° edaylk;)an 411duløar¼etan rIÉ nuts by 7.5 percent. In the Vietnamese market,
RKab;sVaycnÞI nigekAs‘U eLIgéfø 2/0° . rice was down 8.0 percent, selling at
USD411/tonne. The prices of cashew nuts and
rubber both rose 2.0 percent.
kñúgExsIha GtiprNaéføTMnijeRbIR)as; BImYyqñaMeTAmYyqñaMenAshrdæ In August, year-on-year consumer price inflation
Gaemrik ¬-1/5°¦ nigtMbn;GWr:U ¬-0/2°¦ minTabdUcExmuneT xN³Edl in the USA (-1.5 percent) and euro zone (-0.2
percent) was not as low as in the previous month,
GtiprNaenACb:un enAdEdlRtwm -2/2° . b:uEnþGtiprNaéføTMnijTUeTA while Japan was unchanged at -2.2 percent. The
manninñakarekIneLIgenAcin ¬-1/2°¦ kUer:xagt,Úg ¬2/0°¦ sigðburI overall consumer price trend was upward in China
(-1.2 percent), South Korea (2.0 percent),
¬-0/3°¦ nig éf ¬-1/0°¦ ehIyGtiprNaenAefrenAhugkug ¬1/3°¦ Singapore (-0.3 percent) and Thailand (-1.0
nigm:aeLsIu ¬-2/4°¦ . percent) and stable in Hong Kong (1.3 percent)
and Malaysia (-2.4 percent).
kñúgExkBaØa eFobnwgR)ak;duløarGaemrik R)ak;v:unkUer: eLIgéfø 2/0° In September against the US dollar, the Korean
duløarhugkugeLIgéfø 3/4° nigR)ak;ey:nCb:uneLIgéfø 3/6° eFobnwg won appreciated by 2.0 percent, the Hong Kong
dollar by 3.4 percent and the Japanese yen by 3.6
Exmun . dUcKñaEdr R)ak;GWr:U eLIgéfø 2/0° duløarsigðburIeLIgéfø 1/3° percent, compared with previous month. The euro
nigR)ak;)atéfeLIgéfø 0/5° . appreciated by 2.0 percent, the Singapore dollar by
1.3 percent and the Thai baht by 0.5 percent.
kñúgExkkáda éføsENþkesog Føak;cuH 1/2° eFobnwgExmun edaylk;)an In July, the price of soybeans shrank by 1.2
percent from the previous month, to
419/9duløar¼etan . kñúgExdEdl éføeBatFøak;cuH 1/7° dl; USD419.9/tonne. During the same month, maize
137/7duløar¼etan nigeRbgqacuH 12° dl; 580/5duløar¼etan . declined by 1.7 percent to USD137.7/tonne and
palm oil by 12 percent to USD580.5/tonne. In
kñúgExkBaØa enAelITIpSarGnþrCati éføeRbgeqAlk;dl;éd Føak;cuH 5/4° September, the international spot price of crude oil
eRbgm:as‘UtcuH 7/5° nig saMgcuH 8/0° eFobnwgExmun mkRtwm decreased by 5.4 percent compared with the
previous month, to US cents 68/barrel, diesel by
68duløar¼Fug 45/8esn¼lIRt nig 45/8esn¼lIRt . 7.5 percent to US cents 45.8/ ℓ and gasoline by 8.0
percent to USD45.8/ ℓ.

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
skmµPaBesdækic©sMxan;² nig éføTMnijenAkm<úCa
Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia
Fixed Asset Investment Approvals: Garments Foreign Visitor Arrivals
2006 Q4–2009 Q2 May 2008–August 2009

80
250
70 Other
60 200 Business
48 Holiday 7

000' persons
50 5 3
11
USD m

150 11
40 35 13

30 24
100
20 16
138 146
10 50
154
0
0
06Q4

07Q1

07Q2

07Q3

07Q4

08Q1

08Q2

08Q3

08Q4

09Q1

09Q2

Aug 08

Feb 09

Aug 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Jun 08

Oct 08

Jun 09
Including expansion projects.
Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia
Source: Ministry of Tourism
Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals Phnom Penh: Inflation
April 2008–June 2009 Year-on-Year Percentage Changes for August 2009
300
20
Other
250 Flats 15
Villas &ho us es 10 6.6
200 5.7
5
USD m

-2.3 -13.2
150 0 8.1 13.8
-0.5
-5 -2.9
100
-10 -7.7
50 -9.9
-15

0 All ite m s F o o d & no n-a lc o ho lic be ve ra ge s


C lo thing a nd fo o twa re Ho us ing a nd utilitie s
Aug 08
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Apr 08

Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

HH furnis hings a nd o pe ra tio ns He a lth


Tra ns po rt C o m m unic a tio ns
R e c re a tio n a nd c ulture Educ a tio n

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC


Source: National Institute of Statistics
Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans (percent)
July 2008–September 2009 May 2008–July 2009
7000 25

6000
23.07

20
22.48

5000
3935

17.22

4000 15
Riels/ℓ

15.87

3000
3422

Diesel 10 Riel loan rate


21.92

16.4

2000 Gasoline Dollar loan rate


5
1000

0 0
May 08

Nov 08

May 09
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
Jan 09

Mar 09
Nov 08

May 09
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Jan 09

Mar 09

Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
sßanPaBGRtabþÚrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDÆn_BIeRkARbeTs
Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance
Riels per US Dollar Riels per THB & VND
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008–September 2009

123.3
124 29

122.4
4161
4200

4150
123 28
122 27
4119

KHR per VDN100


4150

120
121 26

KHR per Baht


4145
120 25

4134
4100

24.9
119 24
4102

4050 118 23

23.4
23.4
117 22
4000 Market rate 116 21
115 20
3950 Official rate 114 19

Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09
3900
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09
Thai baht (left)
Vietnames e do ng (right)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia


Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Monetary Survey (Percent change) Domestic Credit (Percent change)
May 2008–July 2009 May 2008–July 2009
200 180 110
160 100
150 140 90
120 80
100
100 70
50 80 60
60 50
0 40 40
20 30
-50 0 20
-20 10
-100 -40 0
Nov 08
May 08

Sep 08

May 09
Jul 08

Jan 09

Jul 09
Mar 09

May 08

May 09
Nov 08
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jan 09

Jul 09
Mar 09
Annualised growth rate (M2) Annualised change in domestic credit (left)
Annualised growth rate (M1) Annualised change in private sector credit (left)
Growth over the previous 12 months (M2) Previous 12 months' growth in domestic credit (right)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia


Monetary Operations External Development Assistance Disbursement:
May 2008–July 2009 Environment & Conservation
14000 2000–2007
12000
10000 35
8000
KHR bn

6000 30
4000
2000 25
0
-2000 20
USD m

-4000
-6000 15
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
May 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

10

5
Liquidity Net Foreign Assets
Private Sector Credit Government Deposits 0
Other 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
BaNiC¢kmµeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtþfvikaCati
External Trade and National Budget Operations
Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials Cambodia: Main Exports
May 2008–July 2009 May 2008–July 2009
120 400 8
350 7
100
300 6
16.5 250 5

USD m

USD m
80
11.8 12.6 200 4
KHR bn

60 150 3
14.2 20.4
100 2
40 16.0 50 1
Cigarettes Cement Steel 65.9 45.5 0 0
20

Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
M ay 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

M ar 09

M ay 09
35.2

0
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09
May 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09
T otal exports (left) Garments (left)
Rubber (right) Fish (right)

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Imports: Petroleum Products Current Budget Operations
May 2008–July 2009 June 2008–August 2009
108.3

120 250
98.6
98.2

200
100
150 129
80 100
KHR bn

KHR bn

50
60
0
40 -50 -4
-100
20
-150
-144
0 -200
Aug 08

Aug 09
Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Jun 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Mar 09

Oct 08

Apr 09
May 08

May 09

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: MEF Bulletin


Current Budget Revenue Current Budget Expenditure
June 2008–August 2009 June 2008–August 2009
600 1400

500 1200 Other services


55 1000 Subsidies and social assistance
400 41 80 Wages
KHR bn

KHR bn

87 800 Current expenditure 164


300 90
85 67
600
200 185
Non-tax 251 400
276 Import and Export taxes
100 Domes tic taxes 247
200 416
0 0
Aug 08

Aug 09
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Aug 08

Aug 09
Jun 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Dec 08

Apr 09
Oct 08

Source: MEF web site


Source: MEF web site

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
éføes,ógGahartamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa
Provincial Food Prices
Cambodia: Food Prices in Siem Reap Province Cambodia: Food Prices in Battambang Province
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008–September 2009

21500 27000 21500 27000


18000 23000 18000 23000
14500 19000

Riels/kg

Riels/kg
14500 19000
Riels/kg

Riels/kg
11000 15000 11000 15000
7500 11000 7500 11000
4000 7000 4000 7000
500 3000 500 3000

Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09

Sep 09
Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Sep 09


Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)
1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI


Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Cham Province Cambodia: Food Prices in Kampot Province
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008–September 2009
21500 27000
21500 27000
18000 23000
18000 23000
14500 19000
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

14500 19000

Riels/kg
Riels/kg

11000 15000
11000 15000
7500 11000 7500 11000
4000 7000 4000 7000
500 3000 500 3000
Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09

Sep 09

Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09

Sep 09
Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left)
1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI


Cambodia: Food Prices in Svay Rieng Province Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Speu Province
July 2008–September 2009 July 2008–September 2009
21500 27000 25000 31000
18000 23000 21500 27000
14500 19000 18000 23000
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

Riels/kg

Riels/kg

14500 19000
11000 15000
11000 15000
7500 11000
7500 11000
4000 7000 4000 7000
500 3000 500 3000
Jul 08

Jul 09
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09

Sep 09

May 09
Nov 08
Jul 08
Sep 08

Jan 09
Mar 09

Jul 09
Sep 09

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left)
1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 7


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
éføTMnijtamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa³ tammuxTMnij
Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia by Products
Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces

2900
3500 Kampot
2800 Siem Reap
3000 Svay Rieng
2700
2500

2700

2800
2600

Riels/kg
2475
2000

2500
Riels/kg

2400
2550

2600
2500

2500
2550

2550
2550
1500
2500

2900
2500

2400

2500
2400

2500
2500

2600
1000

2600
Battambang
2300

2500

2400
2200

2500
500 Kompong Speu
Kompong Cham
2200
0
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Source: CDRI Source: CDRI


Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces

16000 18000

14000 16000
14000

16000
12000

15000
14000
12000

16000
12000
10000

12000

14000
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

10000

13000
13000
8000

13000
14000
8000
6000

12000
6000
4000 Battambang
4000 Kampot
Kompong Speu
2000 Kompong Cham Siem Reap
2000
Svay Rieng
0 0
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09
Source: CDRI Source: CDRI
Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces

18500 20000
18000
18000
18000

16000
18000
18000

18000
18000

17500
18000

14000
16000
18000

15000

15000
15000

15000

12000
18000
17000

17000 Battambang
Riels/kg

Riels/kg

Kompong Speu 10000


16000

16500 Kompong Cham


16000

8000
16500

16500

16500
16500

16000 6000
16500

Kampot
16500
16000

4000 Siem Reap


15500 Svay Rieng
2000
16500

15000 0
Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09

Source: CDRI
Source: CDRI

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 8


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
tMélTMnij karnaMecj nig cMnYneTscrGnþrCatienAkñúgRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia
Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Maize Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew Nuts
June 2008–August 2009 June 2008–August 2009
1400 3000 1400 13000
1200 2500 1200 11000
USD per tonne

USD per tonne

USD per tonne

USD per tonne


1000 2000 1000 9000
800 1500 800 7000
600 1000
600 5000
400 500
400 3000
200 0
200 1000
Aug 08

Aug 09
Jun 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Oct 08

Apr 09

Jun 08

Oct 08
Dec 08
Feb 09

Jun 09
Aug 08

Apr 09

Aug 09
Rice (left)
Rubber (right) Rice (left) Rubber (right)
Maize and Maize Products (right) Cashew nuts (right)

Source: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Thailand: Exports Vietnam: Exports
June 2008–August 2009 June 2008– August 2009
1400 13000
900 4.0
800 3.5 1200 11000
USD per tonne

USD per tonne


700 3.0 1000 9000
USD m

USD m

600 2.5
800 7000
500 2.0
400 1.5 600 5000
300 1.0 400 3000
200 0.5 200 1000
Jun 08

Oct 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Jun 09
Aug 08

Apr 09

Aug 09

Jun 08

Oct 08
Dec 08
Feb 09

Jun 09
Aug 08

Apr 09

Aug 09
Rice (left)
Rice (left) Rubber (right)
Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left)
Cashew and similar nuts (right) Cashew nuts (right)

Source: Customs Department of Thailand Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam


Thailand: International Arrivals Vietnam: International Arrivals
October 2006–December 2007* June 2008–August 2009

1600 700
1400 Air Land Sea 600 Others
1200 500 Business
000' persons

1000 Tourism
000 persons

400
800
300
600
400 200

200 100
0 0
Aug 07
Feb 07

Jun 07
Dec 06

Apr 07

Dec 07
Oct 06

Oct 07

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09
Dec-08

Apr-09
Jun-08

Oct-09

Jun-09

Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam


*Data are available to December 2007. Data were estimated by the statistics office.

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 9


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
skmµPaBesdækic© nig sßanPaBGRtaGtiprNaénbNþaRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Economic Activity and Inflation Rates of Selected Economic Partners of Cambodia
Year-on-Year Growth of Main Exports: Japan (%) Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan
November 2008–July 2009 June 2008–June 2009
10 250
US Euro zone
0 Japan

-10 200

-20
150
-30

USD bn
-40
100
-50
-60
Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 50

Manufactured goods Machinery 0


Electricial machinery T ransport equipment

Aug 08

Feb 09
Oct 08

Dec 08

Apr 09
Jun 08

Jun 09
T otal

Source: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics


Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD

External Trade: Malaysia Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan
July 2008–July 2009 (price change from a year earlier)
6%
25
5%
USA Euro zone Japan
20 Exports Imports Trade balance 4%

3%
15
USD bn

2%

10 1%

0%

5 -1%

-2%
0
Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09 -3%
Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia


Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)

Inflation Rate: China, Hong Kong & South Korea Inflation Rate: Selected ASEAN Countries
(price change from a year earlier) (price change from a year earlier)
6% 10%
Malaysia Singapore
5% 8%
Thailand
4% 6%
3%
4%
2%
1% 2%

0% 0%
-1% -2%
-2%
-4%
-3%
-6%
Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09
Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09
China Hong Kong South Korea

Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009) Sources: IMF and Economist (1 October 2009)

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 10


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
GRtabþÚrR)ak; nig sßanPaBtMélTMnijelITIpSarGnþrCati
Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets
KRW & HKD per USD EUR & JPY per USD
September 2008–September 2009 (monthly average) July 2008–September 2009 (monthly average)

1600 7.80 126 0.87


1400 7.79 122 JPY (left scale) 0.84
118 EURO (right scale) 0.81
1200 7.78
114 0.78
1000 7.77
110 0.75

EURO
KRW

HKD

JPY
800 7.76
106 0.72
600 7.75
102 0.69
400 KRW (left scale) 7.74 98 0.66
200 HKD (right scale) 7.73 94 0.63
0 7.72 90 0.6

Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09
Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

THB & SGD Per USD Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices
July 2008–September 2009 (monthly average) June 2008–August 2009

1.56 42 850 350

1.53 40 750 300

1.50 38 650 250


USD / tonne FOB

1.47 36 550 200


SGD

THB

IPO
1.44 34 450 150

1.41 32 350 100


SGD (left scale) USA 2/4
1.38 30 250 Thai 100% B 50
T HB (right scale)
IPO
1.35 28 150 0
Jul 08

Sep 08

Jul 09

Sep 09
Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

Jun 08

Aug 08

Oct 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Apr 09

Jun 09

Aug 09
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice
Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm Oil Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & Diesel
May 2008–July 2009 September 2008–September 2009
600 2400
150 150
140 140
500 2000 130 130
120 120
110 110
USD / tonne FOB

400 1600 100 100


90 90
US Cent

80 80
USD

300 1200 70 70
60 60
50 50
200 800 40 40
30 30
20 20
100 S o y b e a n s : U S N o .1 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le ) 400
Aug 08

Dec 08

Apr 09

Aug 09
Oct 08

Feb 09

Jun 09

M a iz e : U S N o .2 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le )
P a lm O il: c r u d e ( r ig h t s c a le )
0 0
Jul 08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

Jul 09
May 08

May 09

C ru d e o il: O P E C s p o t - U S D /b a r r e l
G a s o lin e : U S G u lf C o a s t - U S c e n ts /litr e ( r ig h t s c a le )
D ie s e l: lo w s u lp h u r N o .2 - U S c e n ts /litr e ( r ig h t s c a le )

Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation


Source: US Energy Information Administration

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 11


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009
B½t’manesdækic©
Economic News
Economic News Highlights:
B½t’manesdækic©sMxan;² ³ 20,000 garment workers lose jobs in Cambodia:
enAkm<úCa kmµkreragcRkkat;edr cMnYn 20000nak; )an)at;bg;kargar ³ The global economic downturn has forced at least
20,000 workers to lose their jobs in Cambodia’s
r)aykarN_rbs;RksYgkargarEdlecjpSaykalBIéf¶c½nÞ ¬TI 5 tula¦ )an garment industry this year, a labour ministry report
bgðajfa enAkm<úCa kmµkrkat;edry:agehacNas;cMnYn 20000nak; showed Monday (October 5). Between January
)an)at;bg;kargarenAqñaMenH edaysaresdækic©saklFøak;cuH . Ep¥ktam and September, 77 factories were closed across the
country resulting in the loss of 30,617 jobs,
r)aykarN_mYy EdlTIPñak;garsarB½t’man)araMgTTYl)an enAGMLúgExmkra according to the report obtained by AFP. Although
dl;ExkBaØa enAkm<úCa man 77eragcRk )anbiTTVar EdleFVI[)at;bg;Gs; 40 new factories opened in same the period and
30/617kargar . r)aykarN_dEdlenaHbgðajeTotfa eTaHbIenA created more employment, more than 20,000 job
losses remained, it showed. Another 53 factories
GMLúgeBldEdlenaH maneragcRk 40 )anebIkfµI nigpþl;kargarbEnßmkþI also suspended operations during the period but
b:uEnþmanCag 20000kargar enAEtRtUv)at;bg; . RsbeBlenaHEdr man about half have reopened. “The closure of the
eragcRk cMnYn53 )anp¥akRbtibtþikar b:uEnþkñúgenaH RbmaN 50° factories is due to fewer purchase orders,” Oum
Mean, secretary of state at the Ministry of Labour,
)ancab;dMeNIrkarsarCafµIehIy . Ék]tþm G‘¿u man rdæelxaFikarénRksYg told AFP. “We can assume that this has been
kargar )anR)ab;TIPñak;garsarB½t’man)araMgfa karEdl eragcRkbiTTVar caused by the global financial crisis because the
ElgdMeNIrkarenH KWbNþalmkBIkarbBa¢aTijmanticCagmun . Ék]tþm consumption in big countries has declined and this
made some factories receive no purchase orders,”
)anmanRbsasn_fa :eyIgGacsnµt;fa sßanPaBenHbNþalmkBIvibtþi he said. In the face of shrinking demand from the
hirBaØvtßúsakl edaysarkareRbIR)as;enARbeTsFM²Føak;cuH ehIyk¾Kµan US, the largest importer of Cambodian-made
karbBa¢aTijsRmab;eragcRkmYycMnYn :. Ék]tþm )anbEnßmfa enAcMeBaHmux garments, the government is seeking new markets
for textiles in Asia and Europe, Oum Mean added.
karFøak;cuHtRmUvkarBIshrdæGaemrik EdlCaRbeTsnaMcUlFMbMputnUv Cambodia’s garment industry is the impoverished
plitplkat;edrrbs;km<úCa rdæaPi)alkMBugEsVgrkTIpSarfµIsRmab; country’s largest source of income, providing 80
vaynP½NÐkm<úCa enAGasIu nigGWr:ub . sMrab;km<úCa vis½ykat;edr KWCa percent of its foreign exchange earnings and
employing an estimated 350,000 people last year.
RbPBcMNUld¾FMbMputEdlpþl;R)ak;cMNUl)anRbEhl 80° énR)ak;cMNUl The International Monetary Fund said last month
CarUbiyvtßúbreTsrbs;km<úCa nig pþl;kargardl;RbCaBlrdæ)anRbEhl that Cambodia’s economy will contract 2.75
350>000nak; kalBIqñaMmun . GgÁkarmUlniFirUbiyvtßúBiPBelak percent this year as the global economic crisis
takes its toll. (Source: AFP, October 5)
)ankt;smÁal;kalBIExmifunaenHfa esdækic©km<úCa nwgrYmcuH 2/75°
enAkñúgqñaMenH edaysarsMBaFénvibtþiesdækic©sakl . Links to other economic news:
1. “IMF predicts Cambodian economy to be over 4% in
2010” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-
09/24/content_12104498.htm)

2. “ADB revises GDP growth forecast for Cambodia”


(http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-
09/22/content_12098450.htm)

3. “Cambodia inflation down by sixth consecutive


month”
(http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-
09/15/content_12055262.htm)

4. “ASEAN economies have emerged from recession”


(http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_lite.p
hp?id=435484

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 12


Cambodia Economic Flash Report –October 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 13

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