Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 253e258

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Study of economic viability of photovoltaic electric power for Quetta e Pakistan

Anjum Khalid a, *, Haroon Junaidi b
a
b

Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi 75300, Pakistan
Adam Smith College, Stenton Campus, Glenrothes, Scotland, UK

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history:
Received 15 July 2011
Accepted 20 June 2012
Available online 24 July 2012

This study assess the feasibility of photovoltaic based power plant; for this purpose best site for the
location of the project is determined by comparing monthly average daily global solar radiation data of
eight Pakistani cities and Quetta city is chosen for the 10 MW plant. RETScreen simulation of the power
plant shows that about 23.206 GWh of electricity can be generated in a year if one axis tracking method
is employed. At a total cost of $50 m, 50% debt ratio, 9% discount rate the proposed PV plant generates
electricity at a rate of $0.157/kWh. The investigation shows that presently the PV based electricity is
about 30.8% more expensive as compared to grid supplied electricity. Emission analysis demonstrated
that the proposed PV power plant avoided carbon dioxide production by 17,938 tons/year. The analysis
shows that presently the proposed PV power plant is not feasible if only economic factors are considered.
Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that if total installed cost of the plant is about $35 m then the cost of
power from photovoltaic plant will be equal to grid supplied electric power without any subsidy.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords:
Solar energy
Photovoltaic
Feasibility analysis
RETScreen

1. Introduction
Reasonably priced electricity, among other factors, plays a very
important role in the industrialization, reduction of poverty and
social uplift of a developing country. Presently Pakistan suffers from
a severe electric power shortage which is one of the causes of
stunted industrial growth, high unemployment rate and occasional
unrest. Pakistans energy resources consist of thermal, hydro and
nuclear power. Thermal power is generated from oil and gas based
power plants. These plants are aging and a signicant number of
them are single cycle with low efciencies thus fuel use per unit of
electricity generated is high. Consequently electric power generated from these plants is costly. The import of oil constitutes
a major portion of the total import bill of the country.
Traditionally electricity had been cheap in Pakistan due to
availability of abundant natural gas as fuel for power plants. With
the increase in population natural gas use has increased that
resulted in rapid depletion rate of this resource. To keep the price of
electricity low government has traditionally subsidized electricity.
Due to rising fuel price and demands from international funding
agency government has realized that subsidy is non sustainable
and damaging to national economy it has started increasing electric
power tariff [1,2] that truly reect the cost of generation. Fig. 1 show
the electricity tariff change with time for domestic consumers who
consume from 301 to 700 kWh/month of electricity.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 92 21 99 261 261x2347.
E-mail addresses: akhalid@neduet.edu.pk, anjumkhalid@yahoo.com (A. Khalid).
0960-1481/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.06.040

To overcome chronic power shortage problem government is

planning to mine large deposits of coal for electric power generation. Power generated from the coal is cheap but it causes damage
to land, water and air from mining and combustion of coal in power
plants. Apart from global polluting impact of carbon dioxide
particulate material, oxides of sulfur and ash in the exhaust gases
produced by coal red power plants directly affect the nearby
ecosystem and human population. Alternative to fossil fuel based
power plants are renewable energy resources like photovoltaics
which are clean and sustainable. Distributed nature of photovoltaic
based power plants ensures that power is produced where it is
required. This aspect of PV is very suitable for far ung areas where
national grid has not reached.
PV is a promising, nonpolluting renewable source of electricity;
it is mature technology with more than 50 years proven record as
a reliable electricity generation method [3]. The modular nature of
PV power system allows its use in small and large systems with
equal ease. PV installations have grown at very high rate of over 42%
in the last thirty seven years Fig. 2 [3,4]. Adequate sunlight is
ubiquitous and present in predictable amounts almost everywhere
consequently photovoltaic power system can be installed in widest
geographic locations [5]. Mass production of photovoltaic panel,
competition among manufacturers, and improvement in efciency
has resulted in signicant module price drop. Graph given in Fig. 3
highlights the decreasing trend of PV module price in the last
eleven years [6].
A survey of the literature in the area of electric power production from photovoltaic based power plants revealed that relatively

A. Khalid, H. Junaidi / Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 253e258

0.120

0.100

Price ($)

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0.080
0.060

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19
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20
11

Electricity Tarrif (US$/kWh)

254

Year

Year

Fig. 1. Change in electricity tariff for domestic consumers over the last 14 years.
Fig. 3. PV module price change in the last 11 years.

small number of studies have been performed that addressed the

prospects of photovoltaic power in Pakistan [7,8]. Present investigation is an attempt to ll this gap and provide an analysis of PV
power project. Aim of this work is to select the best location for
a 10 MW photovoltaic power plant from eight cites of Pakistan and
to estimate the nancial viability of the PV farm and establish its
green house gas emission avoidance capacity.
2. Solar energy potential of Pakistan
Pakistan is a sun-belt country with more than 300 sunny days in
a year making it a suitable place for exploitation of solar energy as
a sustainable resource. To choose the site with largest electricity
generation potential from photovoltaic power plant eight cities
were selected from different geographical locations in Pakistan.
These cities included Quetta, Lahore, Faisalabad, Hyderabad, Hunza,
Chitral, Badin and Ormara. Annual average daily global solar radiation values for these cities were obtained from RETScreen climate
database which is derived from NASA global climatic database.
Analysis of radiation data revealed that Quetta has the highest
average daily global radiation on a horizontal surface of 5.54 kWh/
m2/day and Lahore has the lowest value of 4.68 kWh/m2/day.
Important parameters such as geographic location, solar insolation,
capacity factors, and electric power production potential of 8 cities
of Pakistan were determined from RETScreen and are provided in
Table 1. Due to its best power potential and proximity to large
population center Quetta solar site was chosen for the analysis of
the proposed 10 MW electric power project. Hourly variation of
global solar radiation over a year for Quetta is shown in Fig. 4. The
weather data in the form of Typical Meteorological Year (TMY2) le
for Quetta was obtained from METEONORM global meteorological
database [9].

30000
25000

MWp

20000
15000
10000
5000
0.04
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Year
Fig. 2. World annual installation of PV from 1974 to 2011.

3. Methodology
RETScreen renewable energy system simulation software is very
suitable for performing preliminary evaluation of renewable
energy projects and was used for present study. RETScreen is Excel
based software which was created by Canmet Energy Research
Centre, Natural Resource Canada and is available free of cost [10].
RETScreen is validated software [11]; it is easy to use and provides
accurate result of energy yields within 0e6% of actual value [12].
This software contains a number of worksheets for performing
detailed project analysis. RETScreen project includes Energy Model,
Cost Analysis, Emission Analysis, Financial Analysis and Sensitivity
and Risk Analyses sheets.
Subsequent sections describe the use of RETScreen software to
systematically establish the feasibility of the photovoltaic power
plant.

3.1. Estimation of electric power generation

Energy production assessment is performed in the Energy
Model sheet of RETScreen which requires input of project location,
photovoltaic module type, solar tracking mode, miscellaneous
losses of array and inverter. Quetta is located in the mountainous
area of Balochistan province in north-west of Pakistan at a height of
1621 m. It has latitude of 30.2 North and longitude of 66.9 East.
Quetta receives annual average daily solar insolation of 5.54 kWh/
m2/day on horizontal surface, a one axis tracking surface receives
7.9 kWh/m2/day while a two axis tracking surface receives
8.17 kWh/m2/day insolation. Quetta has an annual average ambient
temperature of 15.7  C; it receives an average of 64.7% direct
radiation and 35.3% diffuse radiation. This implies that an appreciably large proportion of incident solar radiation is direct or beam
radiation.
For sunny regions like Quetta crystalline PV modules are more
suitable while thin lm photovoltaic modules work better under
diffused radiation conditions. PV modules based on crystalline
silicon also have low age derating value of power as compared to
thin lm modules [13] which means that the decline in PV power
plant electricity generation capacity is relatively small over its life
time. Commercial crystalline PV modules are more efcient as
compared to amorphous or thin lm modules. Accordingly
comparatively small module and land area is required for the
project. Consequently for electricity generation mono crystalline
silicon modules e mono-Si-HiP-190BE2 e were chosen from the
product database of RETScreen software. The chosen mono crystalline silicon panels have conversion efciency of 16.1% and
temperature coefcient of 0.40%/ C. For the proposed 10 MW
power plant the collector area was estimated to be 62,112 m2.

A. Khalid, H. Junaidi / Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 253e258

255

Table 1
Average solar radiation and power production potential of 8 cities of Pakistan.

Elevation (m)
Latitude (Degrees N)
Longitude (Degrees E)
Average ambient temperature ( C)
Radiation-horizontal surface (kWh/m2/d)
Radiation-1-axis tracking surface (kWh/m2/d)
Capacity factor-1-axis tracking array (%)
Electricity generated (GWh/year)
Electric energy generated as percentage of Quetta

Quetta

Lahore

Faisalabad

Hyderabad

Hunza

Chitral

Badin

Ormara

1621
30.3
66.9
18.0
5.54
7.9
26.5
23.2
100

217
31.4
74.4
24.4
4.68
6.39
20.9
18.3
82.4

186
31.4
73.1
23.8
5.03
7.07
23.1
20.2
87.1

26
25.4
68.4
26.5
5.27
7.03
22.7
19.9
85.8

4269
36.3
74.6
5.6
4.45
6.44
23.7
20.8
89.6

4115
36
71.8
1.2
4.85
7.12
25.6
22.4
96.5

7
24.7
68.8
27
5.24
7.02
22.8
19.9
85.8

208
25.2
64.6
24.6
5.33
7.16
23.4
20.5
88.4

Tracked PV systems have cost advantage in regions with

irradiation values above 1800 kWh/m2/year [14], Quetta receives an
average solar radiation of 2023 kWh/m2/year hence it is a suitable
site for tracked PV projects. In RETScreen Energy Model three
options of solar tracking are available for PV power projects. They
include xed array tilt, one axis tracking and two axis tracking. PV
projects based on xed tilt arrays are less costly and one and two
axis tracking systems are progressively more expensive due to
added cost of sun tracking mechanisms. Single and two axes
tracking modules intercept larger amount of solar radiation in
comparison to xed tilt system.
RETScreen suggests that when PV array is facing due south, in
the northern hemisphere, and array tilt angle is equal to local
latitude then annual solar energy yield is maximized. Using Quetta
latitude of 30.2 and due south orientation the annual energy
production from xed tilt PV farm was assessed. One and two axis
tracking PV plant energy yields were also determined. Result
showed that energy yield from the PV plant progressively
increased. It was also determined that the difference in energy yield
of one axis and two tracking PV plants was very small while the
price difference between the two systems was signicant. Electricity production cost from one axis tracking plant was found out
to be the lowest amongst the three types of plant. In view of these
facts a one axis tracking PV farm was chosen for economic and
environmental study.
RETScreen has to be supplied realistic values of different losses
that occur during normal operation of photovoltaic power system.
These losses may arise due to such factors as module mismatch,
operating temperature, dirt deposition on module or soiling and dc
to ac conversion etc. RETScreen calculates temperature losses for
the specied module from temperature coefcient available in its
database for the module selected by the user. Quetta located in the
arid mountainous region of Pakistan has considerable dust in the

Radiation on Horizontal (W/m2)

1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0

atmosphere thus deposition of dust on modules could cause

signicant losses. A value of 10% was chosen for array losses from
miscellaneous sources such as dust losses etc. Inverter is used to
change dc power coming from PV arrays into ac electricity this
process has some inefciencies. Modern inverters are very efcient
and an efciency of 95% was chosen for inverter from RETScreen
database. Different PV system inputs are given in Table 2.
3.2. Assessment of nancial viability
Financial analysis involves, among other things, inputs such as
capital cost, electricity export rate, required rate of return, electricity export escalation rate, base case fuel price escalation rate and
ination rate. RETScreen Financial Analysis Sheet also requires
project annual costs and credits.
Based on the component price determined from previous
studies [15,16] a capital cost of $40 million was used in RETScreen
for the 10 MW PV South facing plant with xed array tilt of 30.2 .
The price of one axis tracking PV power plant was estimated to be
the sum of the price of xed orientation plant and price of $1/W for
tracker which is equivalent to a total tracker cost of $10 m. Thus the
initial cost of one axis tracking PV plant came out to be $50 m. In the
case of two axis tracker PV power plant the tracker price was 36.8%
higher than the price of one axis tracker [17] therefore the cost of
tracker was estimated as $13.68 m that resulted in plant initial cost
of $53.68 m.
To encourage investment in renewable projects government of
Pakistan offers several incentives such as income tax exemption
and premium tariff rates for these projects [18,19]. Consequently no
income tax and tax depreciation was included in the economic
analysis of the PV project. Presently tariff paid to independent
power producers (IPP) in Pakistan for bulk electricity purchase by
utilities has a rising trend and is comparable to $0.12/kWh [20].
Considering this fact an electricity export rate of $0.12/kWh was
chosen for the 30 year lifespan of the project. Over the last 14 year
the electricity price has grown at rate of about 5% per annum, Fig. 1.
Using this as a guide price escalation rate of 5% per year was chosen
for this project. RETScreen suggests a range of 0e90% debt ratio for
renewable energy projects. In light of this a 50% debt ratio was
employed in the nancial analysis of the project.
Table 2
PV power plant inputs.

400.0

Technical inputs

200.0
0.0
0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Hours of the year

Fig. 4. Hourly values of global solar radiation over a year for Quetta.

Quantity
Capacity of the power plant
Average solar radiation for Quetta
Tracking system
PV module temperature coeff
PV module conversion efciency
Miscellaneous PV array losses
Invertor losses

Input value
10 MW
5.54 kWh/m2/day
One axis
0.40%/ C
16.1%
10%
5%

256

A. Khalid, H. Junaidi / Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 253e258

Table 3
PV power plant nancial inputs.

Table 4
Important indicators for three modes of PV array orientation.

Financial inputs

Sun tracking mode

Variable
Project life
Electricity export rate
Electricity export escalation
Debt ratio
Debt term
Ination rate
Discount rate

Input value
30 years
$0.12/kWh
5.0%/year
50%
10 years
8%
9%

Fixed tilt PV power plant is expected to have low O&M costs as

components with moving parts like trackers are not used. However
regular cleaning of dust from panel in such plants is required as
well as occasional replacement of inverters. An O&M cost of
$0.335 m/yr that also includes replacement cost of inverter was
estimated for of PV plant. The other two types of power plants that
use trackers will incur additional repair or replacement cost of
trackers in their lifetime. Thus the O&M cost of these power plants
is the O&M cost of xed tilt type power plant and additional repair
and replacement cost of trackers. A cost of operation and maintenance of $0.5 m was estimated for one and two axes tracking PV
power plants, which is comparable to the O&M cost used in earlier
studies [16,21].
In free market economy a PV power plant like any other enterprise has to earn prot on investment. Required rate of return on
investment is the rate used to discount future cash ows to obtain
their present value. RETScreen suggested range of required rate of
return on investment in electric utility projects for North America is
3%e18%; it was used as guide for choosing discount rate or required
rate of return for this project and a value of 9% was chosen from this
range for the project. Other input parameters for the proposed PV
power plant were chosen carefully after communication with
workers in relevant elds and scrutinizing current economic
trends and their projection over the 30 year life of the project.
In the nancial analysis no emission reduction credit or clean
energy production income is assumed. However within the sensitivity analysis clean energy production income of $0.036/kWh has
been assumed and its effect on the feasibility of the project were
studied. Table 3 shows the detail of the important nancial inputs.
3.3. Harmful emission avoidance
Total electricity production in Pakistan in 2010 was 95.6 TWh
out of which fossil fuel based thermal power plants contribution to

1-axis track (30.5deg)

2-axis track

3,000
2,500

One axis

Two axis

17.713
0
40
335,000
15.8

23.206
1.0
50
500,000
15.7

23.922
1.386
53.68
500,000
16.0

electricity generation was 64.4 TWh. It implies that 67.3% of the

electricity was generated from fossil fuel based power plants [22].
Due to decreasing local natural gas production oil has become
a dominant fuel for power plants. These plants produce carbon
dioxide, particulate mater and other harmful pollutants equally
harming local and global environment. RETScreen calculated
specic carbon dioxide production rate of the base case power
plant was 0.773 tonCO2/MWh. This value of carbon emission was
chosen in light of the low efciency of the thermal electric power
plants in Pakistan.
4. Results and suggestions
RETScreen simulation showed that the PV power plant with
south facing arrays of 30.2 tilt produced 17.713 GWh/yr ac electric
power while the one axis tracking plant produced 23.206 GWh ac
electricity in a year. Against this value the farm with a two axis
tracking arrays generated 23.922 GWh/yr. This means that power
obtainable from a one axis tracking PV farm is 31% higher than the
power from a similar sized farm with south facing 30.2 tilt arrays.
On the other hand power generation improvement from one axis
tracking to two axis tracking is marginal and is only 3.08%. Monthly
power generation capacities of the three types of PV farms are
shown in Fig. 5. Power generation capacities and other important
indicators of these farms are provided in Table 4. It is obvious from
these indicators that one axis tracking PV power plant generates
least cost electricity.
Financial analysis result showed that at initial cost of $50
millions and electricity export rate of $0.12/kWh, and electricity
export escalation rate of 5% the one axis tracking plant net present
value was $14.9 million. Equity payback period was 18.5 years and
internal rate of return (IRR) on equity was 5.5% which was less than
the required rate of return of 9%. A negative value of NPV demonstrated that the project is nancially not feasible. Similarly other
project indicators highlighted that at present the economics of this
plant is not very encouraging for its installation. Table 5 emphasizes
some important nancial indicators.
RETScreen emission reduction analysis showed that the
proposed PV power plant avoided carbon dioxide production by
17,938 tons/year. This was equivalent to 538,140 tons of avoided
carbon dioxide in the lifetime of the plant.

2,000
Table 5
Financial indicators of the proposed PV power plant.

1,500
1,000
500

Ju
ly
Au
gu
Se
st
pt
em
be
r
O
ct
ob
e
N
r
ov
em
b
D
er
ec
em
be
r

M
ay
Ju
ne

Ap
ri l

0
Ja
nu
a
Fe ry
br
ua
ry
M
ar
ch

Electricity Produced (MWh/Month)

Fixed tilt (30.5deg)

Generated power (GWh/yr)

Cost of tracking ($/Watt)
Capital cost of plant (m$)
O&M cost ($/yr)
Cost of electricity (/kWh)

South facing-xed
tilt

Fig. 5. Monthly power generations by xed orientation and one and two axis tracking
PV power plants located in Quetta.

S. No

Output variable

Output value

Suggested optimum
value

1
2

Net present value

Energy production
cost
Benet-cost ratio
Internal rate of
return on equity
Year to positive
cash ow

$14.9 million
$0.157/kWh

Any positive value

Should be equal to or lower
than electricity tariff
1>
IRR  Required rate of return

3
4
5

0.41
5.5%
18.7 years

Investors accepted
value < 10 years

A. Khalid, H. Junaidi / Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 253e258

257

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Original val New value Original val New value Original val New value Original val New value Original val New value Original val New value
Capital Cost ($m)

Series1

50

35

Capacity factor (%)

26.5

34.5

Electricity export rate

(/kWh)
12

15.7

Electricity export
escalation rate (%)
5

7.08

Required rate of
return
9

5.5

Clean energy
production income
(/kWh)
0

3.7

Fig. 6. Sensitivity analysis results of the 10 MW photovoltaic power plant showing comparison of original values and new values of important input variables. New values are for
which NPV is zero and project is economically feasible.

Despite its economic non feasibility implementation of this PV

power project can be achieved if feed-in-tariff (FiT) concept is
adapted in Pakistan. FiT ensures guaranteed power purchase from
renewable power producer at premium price. The elevated price of
renewable electricity is spread over all the consumers. This results
into slight increase in electricity bill to the consumers. People
accept higher price of electricity if it is supplied uninterrupted and
is obtained from non polluting resources. Feed-in-tariff provides
a better way of starting and sustaining renewable energy projects
in the country. FiT should be provided to renewable energy project
operators until such plants can compete economically with fossil
fuel based power plants. The required FiT for the present PV power
plant is basically equal to or greater than the cost of electricity
generation estimated by RETScreen which is $0.157/kWh.
A photovoltaic power project does not require any fuel and
operation and maintenance cost is low, major annual cost is the
repayment of loan and interest on the loan. Electricity generation
cost drops signicantly when the PV project loan is fully paid up. It
is estimated that when all the loan has been paid up in about 18
years then electricity cost of the proposed plant will be about 2.15/
kWh since the only expenditure of running the plant will then be
the O&M cost. This value has been calculated by dividing the O&M
cost of $0.5 m/yr by 23.206  106 kWh of electricity produced in
a year by the plant.
5. Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis on RETScreen was undertaken with the aim
to determine the values of economic input variables that could
make this PV power plant feasible for Quetta. During sensitivity
analysis one input variable was gradually changed and its effect on
output variables was observed while the others inputs were kept
constant. The most important economic variables that strongly
affected net present value, payback period, and internal rates of
return included project capital cost, electricity export rate, electricity export escalation rate, solar radiation and clean energy
production income. Any positive value of NPV is regarded as
a suitable indicator for the selection of power project.
Simulation showed that an initial total cost of $35 million would
make the plant nancially feasible. The analysis further highlighted
that for electricity export rate of $0.157/kWh the PV power plant
will become nancially viable. Analysis showed that feasibility of
this project is also strongly dependent on electricity export escalation rate. Rising fossil fuel price will ensure that electricity in the
country will become more and more expensive with the passage

time. If the electricity export escalation rate increases from present

value of 5% to 7.08% then project will become nancially feasible.
Furthermore a clean energy production income of $0.037/kWh will
make the project nancially viable. Fig. 6 presents sensitivity
analysis results in graphical form showing comparison of original
values and new values of important input variables. New values are
for which NPV is zero and project is economically feasible.

6. Conclusion
This study showed that one axis tracking PV power plant
generates the cheapest electricity and has potential to generate
23.206 GWh electric power in a year at Quetta which is the site with
highest solar insolation. While Lahore being the worst site can
generate 18.3 GW/year from the proposed PV power project. While
most of the area of Pakistan has the potential to generate power
nearly equal to power generation potential of Quetta site. The
electricity obtained from this clean power source will cost $0.157/
kWh and will help abate local and global pollution. The plant will
help avoid production of 17, 938 ton of carbon dioxide per year.
However presently high initial cost makes this project unfeasible
even at the best site in Pakistan despite the fact that O&M cost of
this 10 MW plant is $0.5 m/year as no fuel is needed. However some
economic factors have the potential to change this situation in
future. First is the falling price of PV modules and the second
equally important development is the rising electric power tariff in
Pakistan. These two factors will hopefully bring PV based electricity
price equal to grid supplied electricity in future. However if feed-intariff of $0.157/kWh or above is provided then it will make this PV
power project economically viable in Pakistan now.

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