The Secular Trend and Cyclical

Outlook for Bonds, Stocks and

Commodities

Martin J Pring

Pring Turner Capital Group

 4

Trading ranges

1
Bear markets instead of trading ranges
 16-years/62%
20-years/68% decline/4
recessions
19-years/75% decline/6 decline/4
recessions recessions
9-years/60%
decline/2
recessions

Long way from a bargain,

 Back above
the danger
zone again.

This is where we should be!

4 10,710 61.6
5 4
Still a long way from being oversold.
 4

3
2
1

2
4

2 1
3
4
2 4 6 2 1
4 6
3
5
1 3 5 3
5 7
7 1
 July 2010

S&P advanced 126-months

2013
Shanghai 2007
Gold 1980
NASDAQ 2000
18-month ROC
 P/E44 2,000 peak 0 percentile! Valuation
Yield 1.15%
%Decline Percentile
0 P/E You are here 0
31.5
Yield
(November 2009).
Yield
2.44% 20
20 2.69
P/E Average
18.77
at 40
40
*
secular
Average DM
lows.
60 at 60
*
secular DM

highs. 80
80 Yield
7.01
P/E
100 6.95 100
5 10 15 20
Duration (Years)
* Denotes duration and magnitude
Whipsaw breakout

$85 is the final

Marginal trendline
make break and
or break
right at level.
the 96-month MA.
Bullish but not
overly
extended
 The Stock Market
is
Fear and Greed Superimposed
Over
the Business Cycle

Joe D. Turner

Pring Turner Capital Group

20
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Pring Turner Capital Group
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 Business Cycles: Come in Different
Shapes, Sizes and Configurations
• Bell Shaped
• Skewed
• Small

• Medium

»Large
• Double Dip and Chocolate Chip 22
But…
Business Cycles Are Consistent
Rational  Logical  Sequential

Pring Turner Capital Group

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33 Completed Cycles in 155 years
Average 4.7 years per cycle

Pring Turner Capital Group

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How Can Investors Profit?

Pring Turner Capital Group

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Pring Turner Capital Group
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Where are we in the Business Cycle?

Pring Turner Capital Group

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What is Unique About Business
Cycle #34?

Pring Turner Capital Group

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Pring Turner Capital Group
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Pring Turner Capital Group
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Pring Turner Capital Group
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Building Wealth in a Secular Bear Market…
Follow the Business Cycle

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Pring Turner Capital Group
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Stage 4 Next Month?

Pring Turner Capital Group

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Enjoy Stage 4!

Pring Turner Capital Group

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… and Stage 5!

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 Watch Out for Stage 6…
Especially in A Secular Bear Market

Pring Turner Capital Group

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 Thanks for Listening…

Please Visit our website www.pringturner.com for our special

Report on the Next “Lost Decade” and for future research updates.

Pring Turner Capital Group

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2010 Outlook
Equities
Statistics for Primary Bull Markets in
a Secular Bear (“Bulldog Rallies”)

1. The average bulldog rally since 1900 has taken

34-months and achieved a 45% gain.

2. Excluding the “big three” 1932-37,1942-46 and

2002-2007) the duration was 27-months for a 41%
gain.
3. The current rally is 10-months old with a 50%
gain.
 Secular bears
S&P Composite

Smoothed Momentum

Still at a subdued level

Still at a subdued level.
Record high
4 10,710 61.6
5 4
Decennial cycle, opening years
of the decade, second year of
the Presidential Cycle and four
year lows.
In a position to signal a decline.
 06
98 02 10

?
94
90
86

82 Almost certain
66 70 78 to peak out soon.
74
62
58
S&P Composite

Intermediate KST
Credit Markets
Whipsaw break

Below 12-MA
Will probably go
bearish this month.
 H
Previous high is at $93.
S
S

Near-term
bearish
 S
S
Oversold
reversal H

Intermediate buy
Hesitating
 Going bullish
for rates

Very close to a primary

bull signal for rates.
Commodity Indexes
Inflation
Barometer is at
100%.
Way above
zero and still
rising.
Still subdued
The End