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1. Introduction
"We invented money and we use it, yet we cannot understand its laws or control its actions. It has a life of its own."
- Lionel Trilling, American literary critic.
Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI) Governor, Mr. D. Subbarao, knows the fickle nature of money better than anyone else
in the country. As the rupee went on a free fall in the last few months spooking businesses and investors alike and
prompting the RBI to take measures to stem the slide, most people were left wondering what this ado was about.
With the rupee crashing to a record low of nearly 59 against the dollar, it has become one of the worst performing
currencies in Asia. The rupee on 11th June 2011 fell by a whopping 74 paisa to hit a new all-time low of 58.92. The
rupee has fallen by more than 8% since May this year. Having a currency at an all-time low is not a great
advertisement for the government's management of the economy ahead of elections.
bringing them on a par with domestic term deposit rates, the RBI expects fund inflows from NRIs, triggering a rise in
demand for rupees and an increase in the value of the local currency.
The RBI manages the value of the rupee with several tools, which involve controlling its supply in the market and,
thus, making it cheap or expensive. RBI controls the movement of the rupee through (or, by way of) changes in
interest rates, relaxation or tightening of rules for fund flows, tweaking the cash reserve ratio (the proportion of
money banks have to keep with the central bank) and selling or buying of dollars in the open market; it also fixes the
statutory liquidity ratio, that is, the proportion of money banks have to invest in government bonds, and the repo
rate, at which it lends to banks.
While an increase in interest rates makes a currency expensive, changes in cash reserve and statutory liquidity ratios
increase or decrease the quantity of money available, impacting its value.
Unless the fall in prices of goods is because of improved production efficiencies, one would have less money to
spend. If one were to have a fixed-interest loan to repay, that debt would have a higher valuation. Yields from fixedincome investments made before deflation set in will, of course, increase in value.
Minting Money
A fantasy world where trees have banknotes and bear coins instead of fruits might sound like a dream come true.
Economists will be the devil's messenger in that world when they break the news that ones money is as good as dry
leaves.
If one was looking for a machine that can print money, one would have to meet someone who actually owns one the government. Money is printed by governments, but they cannot print all the money they need. When a
government prints money to meet its needs without the economy growing at the same pace, the result can be
catastrophic. Zimbabwe is a recent example.
After the 1990s land reforms in free Zimbabwe, farm production as well as manufacturing declined drastically.
However, the government continued to print money for its expenses. Zimbabweans started losing faith in the local
currency. As inflation surged drastically, the Zimbabwean dollars were printed in denominations as high as 100
trillion. After the currency lost its value, people started using US dollars. In April 2009, the country put its currency
on hold and switched to US dollars.
In the past, governments used to back their currencies with gold reserves or a foreign currency such as the US dollar
that could be converted into gold on demand. The gold standard currency system was abandoned as there was not
enough gold to issue money and currency valuations fluctuated with the supply and demand of gold.
In the modern economy, governments print money based on their assessment of future economic growth and
demand. The purchasing power of the currency remains constant if the increase in money supply is equal to the rise
in gross domestic product and other factors influencing the currency remain unchanged.
Forex Demand
Though international trade and movement of people are increasing rapidly, there is no currency that is acceptable
across the globe. Whether one goes for higher studies to the US or flies to Rio for a vacation, one has to pay for
services and goods in the currency that is accepted in the country. Even while shopping online on stores run by
foreign companies, one has to pay in foreign exchange.
The foreign exchange rate for conversion of currencies depends on the market scenario and the exchange rate being
followed by the countries. Floating exchange rates or flexible exchange rates are determined by market forces
without active intervention of central governments. For instance, due to heavy imports, the supply of the rupee may
go up and its value fall. In contrast, when exports increase and dollar inflows are high, the rupee strengthens.
Earlier, most countries had fixed exchange rates. This system has been abandoned by most countries due to the risk
of devaluation of currencies owing to active government intervention. Most countries now adopt a mixed system of
exchange rates where central banks intervene in the market to buy or sell the different currencies to control the
movement of their own currencies.
Not everyone loses in a weak currency scenario. Exporters across the 17-country euro zone, for instance, are
benefiting from a weak local currency. Sometimes, countries use various ways to keep their currencies undervalued
to promote exports. Chinese Renminbi is one such currency that several economists say is undervalued.
Now that we know the factors that determine the value of a currency, how does the rupee in someones bank
account and purse stand at present? Over the past few months, since May 2013, the rupee has been weakening
against the dollar.
Current Account Surplus/Deficit: Current account surplus means exports are more than imports. In
economics, we assume prices to be in equilibrium and hence to balance the surplus, the currency should
appreciate. Likewise, for current account deficit countries, the currency should depreciate.
Capital Account flows: As currency adjustments do not happen immediately to adjust current account
surpluses and deficits, capital flows play a role. Deficit countries need capital flows and surplus countries generate
capital outflows. On a global level, we assume that deficits will be cancelled by surpluses generated in other
countries. In theory, we assume current account deficits will be equal to capital inflows, but in the real world we
could easily have a situation of excessive flows. So, some countries can have current account deficits and also a
balance of payments surplus as capital inflows are higher than current account deficits. In this case, the currency
does not depreciate but actually appreciates as in the case of India (explained below). Only when capital inflows
are not enough, there will be depreciating pressure on the currency.
Eurozone Crisis
Dollar inflows into the Indian economy are falling because of global troubles such as the Eurozone crisis (Greece with
a debt more than its economy, making dollar strong) and the high valuation of Indian companies.
Companies with foreign debt would have to pay more for the same debt.
Oil companies would pay more for a lesser valued barrel. About 70% of oil needs of India are imported. And, if
we continue to pay more for the unending oil needs, it would adversely affect the Indian market and increase
inflation.
With each international transaction, India suffers mammoth losses. Till now, we have seen very small-scale losses
with the falling rupee. But, international trades are in values of lakhs of crores. With every falling rupee, India
loses ` 100 crores in International trade .The loss of ` 100 crores are explained below through an example.
Just a small example would suffice. In 1947, US$ 1 was equivalent to 1. So, for a transaction worth 50 billion, we
would have to pay US$ 50 billion. Now, the current rate is, say, 50 per dollar. So, now for the same purchase worth
5000 crores, we would have to pay US$ 2500 billion. Just think of how the rupee has weakened with respect to the
UD dollar.
The impact of rupee depreciation on Crude Oil imports suggests:
The dollar price of crude oil has increased, while the exchange rate is depreciating.
Due to the depreciation of the domestic currency, i.e. the rupee, the domestic price of crude oil has become
more costly.
The benefit of falling commodity prices is not being transferred to the industry due to rupee depreciation.
Rupee depreciation coupled with an inflexible tariff structure means that the power companies will have to suffer
huge losses.
The depreciation of rupee has further aggravated the cost pressures on the industry.
Continuous increase in the prices of imported fertilizer can also adversely impact the subsidy burden of the
government.
Increase in import costs of palm oil increases the cost of production for the FMCG industry and puts pressure on
their profit margin.
The depreciation of rupee also affects the money flow in the Indian stock markets. FIIs, the main investors in the
Indian equity markets also start withdrawing their investments from the markets fearing loss of value. In terms of
portfolios, if one holds stocks in oil and gas, infrastructure, fertilizer or the tire business, the returns will take a hit as
the shares of these companies will fall when the rupee falls as these companies procure their raw materials from
abroad. On the other hand, stocks of Information Technology (IT) companies and export-oriented units should do
better.
US Dollar
Pound Sterling
Euro
Japanese Yen
31/12/1998
42.48
70.70
----
37.46
30/12/1999
43.51
70.47
43.81
42.61
29/12/2000
46.75
69.76
43.41
40.74
31/12/2001
48.18
69.90
42.66
36.68
31/12/2002
48.03
77.04
50.34
40.53
31/12/2003
45.61
81.17
57.31
42.68
31/12/2004
43.58
84.08
59.40
42.49
30/12/2005
45.07
77.89
53.55
38.44
29/12/2006
44.23
86.91
58.26
37.21
31/12/2007
39.41
78.74
58.12
35.21
31/12/2008
48.45
70.01
68.22
53.68
31/12/2009
46.68
75.03
67.07
50.51
30/12/2010
44.90
69.69
59.47
55.16
30/12/2011
53.26
82.09
68.90
68.68
31/12/2012
54.77
88.50
72.26
63.66
31/01/2013
53.29
84.22
72.23
58.66
28/02/2013
53.77
81.57
70.68
58.24
28/03/2013
54.39
82.32
69.54
57.76
30/04/2013
54.22
84.00
70.98
55.47
31/05/2013
56.50
86.00
73.68
56.03
11/06/2013
58.93
91.81
78.18
59.94
Source: RBI
Exchange rate of the Indian Rupee - Trends
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
US Dollar
Pound Sterling
Euro
Japanese yen
Source: RBI
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(Figure -1)
Balance of Payments - Trends
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
(50,000)
(100,000)
Current Account
Capital Account
BoP
Source: RBI
(Figure 2)
Source: RBI
What is even more stunning to note are the changes in BoP post- 2005. In the 1990s, the Balance of Payments
surplus was just about US$ 410 crores and it increased to US$ 2200 crores in the 2000s. However, if we were to
divide the 2000s period into 2000-05 and 2005-11, we would see a sharp rise in both the current account deficit and
the capital account surplus. The rise in Forex reserves is also mainly seen in 2005-11.
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Based on this, if we look at the rupee movement, we would broadly observe that it has depreciated since 1991. In
above (Para 6.1), discuss about the rupee movement against the major currencies. A better way to understand the
rupee movement is to track the real effective exchange rate. Real effective exchange rate (REER) is based on a
basket of currencies against which a country trades and is adjusted for inflation. A rise in index means appreciation
of the currency against the basket and a decline indicates depreciation. RBI has been releasing REER for 6 currency
and 36 currency trade baskets since 1993-94 and we can observe that the currency did depreciate in the 1990s, but
has appreciated post-2005. It has depreciated following the Lehman crisis but has again appreciated in 2010-11.
In the 1990s, the rupee depreciated against its major trading currencies, as the average REER was less than 100.
However, in the 2000s, we can observe that the rupee appreciated against the major trading currencies. If we divide
the 2000s period further into 2000-05 and 2005-11, we can see that there is depreciation in the first phase and a
large appreciation in the second half of the decade.
Hence, overall, we can observe that the rupee has been following the path that the economic theories highlighted
above have suggested.
1.
As India opened up its economy post-1991, the rupee depreciated as it had current account deficits. Earlier
current account deficits were mainly on account of merchandise trade deficits. However, as services exports
picked up, this helped lower the pressure on current account deficit in a major way. Without the services
exports, the current account deficit would have been much higher.
2.
There was a blip during the South East Asian crisis when the current account deficit increased from US$ 460
crores to US$ 550 crores in 1997-98. Capital inflows declined from US$ 1140 crores to US$ 1010 crores leading
to a decline in the BoP surplus and the depreciation of the rupee. However, given the scale of the crisis, the
depreciation pressure on the rupee was much lesser. There was active monetary management by RBI during
that period. Similar measures have been taken up by the RBI in the current phase of rupee depreciation as well.
3.
Till around 2005, India received capital inflows which were just enough to balance the current account deficit.
The situation changed after 2005 as India started receiving capital inflows which were much higher than current
account deficit. The capital inflow composition also changed where external financing dominated in the early
1990s, and now most of the capital inflows have come via foreign investment. Within foreign investment, the
share of portfolio flows has been much higher. As capital inflows were higher than the current account deficit,
the rupee appreciated against the major currencies.
4.
Other factors have also led to the appreciation of the rupee. First, India entered a favorable growth phase
registering growth rates of 9% and above since 2003. This surprised investors as few had imagined India could
grow at that rate consistently. The high growth led to a surge in capital inflows mainly in portfolio inflows.
Secondly, Indias inflation started rising around 2007 leading to the RBI to tighten its policy rates. This led to
higher interest rate differential between India and other countries leading to additional capital inflows as
highlighted above. It is important to understand that at that time investors did not feel that inflation would
remain persistent and thought that it would be a transitory phase and that it could be tackled by monetary
policy.
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5.
During the Lehman crisis, capital flows shrunk sharply from a high of US$ 10700 crores in 2007-08 to just US$
780 crores in 2008-09 and this led to a sharp depreciation of the currency. The rupee plunged from around 39
per dollar to . 50 per dollar. The REER moved from 112.76 in 2007-08 to 102.97 in 2008- 09, depreciating
sharply by 9.3%. The current account deficit also declined sharply as well, tracking the decline in oil prices from
US$ 12 billion in Jul-Sep 08 to US$ 30 crores in Jan-Mar 09. The currency also depreciated tracking the global
crisis which led to a preference for dollar assets compared to the other countries currency assets.
6.
The Indian economy recovered much quicker and much more sharply from the global crisis. The capital inflows
increased from US$ 780 crores to US$ 5180 crores in 2009-10 and to US$ 5700 crores in 2010-11. The higher
capital inflows were on account of both FDI and FII. External Commercial Borrowings also picked up in 2010-11.
The current account deficit also increased from US$ 2790 crores in 2008-09 to US$ 4420 crores in 2010-11.
REER (6 currency) appreciated by 13% in 2010-11 and 36 REER by 7.7%.
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participation. This in essence, has been the RBIs response to a depreciating Rupee. The following measures have
been taken lately:
Increased the FII limit on investment in government and corporate debt instruments.
First, it raised the ceilings on interest rates payable on non-resident deposits. This was later deregulated
allowing banks to determine their own deposit rates.
The all-in-cost ceiling for External Commercial Borrowings was enhanced to allow more ECB borrowings.
Administrative Measures:
Apart from easing capital controls, some administrative measures have been taken to curb market speculation.
Earlier, entities that borrow abroad were liberally allowed to retain those funds overseas. They are now required
to bring the proportion of those funds to be used for domestic expenditure into the country immediately.
Earlier, people could rebook forward contracts after cancellation. This facility has been withdrawn which will
ensure that only hedgers book forward contracts and that volatility is curbed.
Net Overnight Open Position Limit (NOOPL) of Forex dealers has been reduced across the board and revised
limits in respect of individual banks are being advised to the Forex dealers separately.
9. Conclusion
The growing Indian economy has led to a widening of current account deficit as imports of both oil and non-oil
commodities have risen. Despite a dramatic rise in software exports, the current account deficits have remained
elevated. Apart from the rising CAD, the financing CAD has also been seen as a concern as most of these capital
inflows are short-term in nature. The PMs Economic Advisory Council in particular has always mentioned this as a
policy concern. Boosting exports and seeking more stable longer-term foreign inflows has been suggested as a way
to alleviate concerns on current account deficit. The exports have risen but so have prices of crude oil leading to a
further widening of current account deficit.
Efforts have been made to invite FDI but much more needs to be done especially after the holdback of retail FDI and
the recent criticisms of policy paralysis. Without a more stable source of capital inflows, the rupee is expected to
remain highly volatile shifting gears from a currency with an appreciating outlook to a depreciating one in quick time.
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