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(773) 485-9477
February 22, 2015
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
362
169
106
63
36
48.3%
26.5%
15.2%
6.8%
3.3%
ANALYSIS
The only question remaining in the Mayors race is whether Rahm Emanuel will achieve the allimportant 50%+1 on Tuesday, February 24th. Statistically, the result is within the margin of error so it is
too close to call.
The turnout in the 50 Ward Aldermanic races will be a major influence on the Mayors race.
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
Page 1
Rahm Emanuel
362
49.2%
169
106
23.0%
14.4%
63
36
8.6%
4.9%
WITH UNDECIDEDS
Rahm Emanuel
399
41.2%
Rahm Emanuel
373
51.3%
182
18.8%
185
25.4%
Willie Wilson
103
10.6%
Willie Wilson
94
12.9%
65
6.7%
54
7.4%
17
1.8%
21
2.9%
203
20.9%
Undecided
*Once early voting begins, undecided is removed as a poll option. The last two weekly Mayoral polls
will not have undecided as an option.
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
Page 2
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided
399
182
103
65
17
203
41.2%
18.8%
10.6%
6.7%
1.8%
20.9%
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided
369
147
86
59
15
208
41.7%
16.6%
9.7%
6.7%
1.7%
23.5%
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
Page 3
Rahm Emanuel
375
39.5%
171
105
18.0%
11.1%
71
17
211
7.5%
1.8%
22.2%
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
Willie Wilson
Robert Bob Fioretti
William Dock Walls
Undecided
384
166
107
68
15
270
38.0%
16.4%
10.6%
6.7%
1.5%
26.7%
Rahm Emanuel
Jesus Chuy Garcia
398
327
54.9%
45.1%
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
Page 4
METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For a Municipal Election poll, 60% of
the sampled population voted in 3 of the last 3 elections, 30% voted in 2 of the last 3 elections, and 10%
voted in 1 of the last 3 elections. This 60/30/10 ratio reflects Municipal Election voting patterns
468
542
46%
54%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
96
9.5%
Age 31 - 45
281
27.8%
Age 46 - 64
357
35.4%
Age 65 plus
275
27.3%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent
Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
20
15
33
Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
10
22
31
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25
29
30
31
20
23
34
8
19
8
13
19
8
16
21
30
45
23
29
10
15
18
14
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50
20
7
6
22
15
36
15
11
16
17
19
16
22
21
14
18
17
17
30
34
24
19
444
506
47%
53%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
79
262
8.3%
27.6%
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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Age 46 - 64
353
37.2%
Age 65 plus
255
26.9%
*Age could not be determined for 1 respondent
Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25
13
20
39
30
29
29
22
41
27
7
11
12
13
8
10
9
17
18
30
16
26
6
15
18
6
Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50
9
19
30
21
11
15
20
11
25
9
6
22
13
17
22
18
19
26
17
22
29
27
35
18
16
Page 7
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female
423
461
47.9%
52.1%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 - 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus
84
239
306
255
9.5%
27.0%
34.6%
28.8%
Respondents by Ward
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
Ward 9
Ward 10
Ward 11
Ward 12
Ward 13
Ward 14
Ward 15
Ward 16
Ward 17
Ward 18
Ward 19
Ward 20
Ward 21
17
15
28
27
21
25
28
22
20
8
11
8
21
5
1
24
12
14
32
15
29
Ward 26
Ward 27
Ward 28
Ward 29
Ward 30
Ward 31
Ward 32
Ward 33
Ward 34
Ward 35
Ward 36
Ward 37
Ward 38
Ward 39
Ward 40
Ward 41
Ward 42
Ward 43
Ward 44
Ward 45
Ward 46
11
15
23
18
9
6
19
20
23
5
11
19
22
30
16
22
17
19
24
13
18
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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Ward 22
Ward 23
Ward 24
Ward 25
11
12
26
8
Ward 47
Ward 48
Ward 49
Ward 50
28
20
26
10
451
518
46.5%
53.5%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus
91
270
357
251
9.4%
27.9%
36.8%
25.9%
Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
19
20
28
31
29
26
24
27
20
9
10
10
8
9
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
17
24
22
20
6
8
31
11
29
14
5
31
13
23
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
6
25
17
17
36
15
28
8
10
16
18
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
16
23
29
19
19
24
21
30
29
23
16
315
412
43.3%
56.7%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus
81
196
239
210
11.2%
27.0%
32.9%
28.9%
Respondents by Ward
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
13
7
19
26
25
22
16
20
16
5
15
3
18
7
7
13
18
19
18
11
22
1
12
14
20
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
8
22
16
18
8
4
16
9
24
11
6
15
13
15
12
18
12
17
20
11
12
20
23
12
18
330
406
44.8%
55.2%
Respondents by Age
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus
77
210
277
172
10.5%
28.5%
37.6%
23.4%
Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
9
12
19
23
27
18
17
21
18
7
15
6
21
8
1
11
13
19
25
15
21
6
12
13
12
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
4
14
13
22
16
8
15
17
17
5
8
19
9
26
14
12
13
18
10
14
14
28
23
20
8
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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333
404
45.2%
54.8%
Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 64
Age 65 plus
73
206
269
189
9.9%
28.0%
36.5%
25.6%
Respondents by Ward
1 Count
2 Count
3 Count
4 Count
5 Count
6 Count
7 Count
8 Count
9 Count
10 Count
11 Count
12 Count
13 Count
14 Count
15 Count
16 Count
17 Count
18 Count
19 Count
3
12
30
20
27
19
17
25
24
8
12
10
13
8
7
12
16
11
30
26 Count
27 Count
28 Count
29 Count
30 Count
31 Count
32 Count
33 Count
34 Count
35 Count
36 Count
37 Count
38 Count
39 Count
40 Count
41 Count
42 Count
43 Count
44 Count
12
25
12
21
9
8
18
10
18
8
12
15
7
14
17
16
23
10
18
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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20 Count
21 Count
22 Count
23 Count
24 Count
25 Count
14
12
10
12
12
6
45 Count
46 Count
47 Count
48 Count
49 Count
50 Count
13
12
20
22
16
11
Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161
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