Department of Electrical Engineering

IIT Hyderabad
EE5310 Probability & Random Processes

Quiz - 1 Solutions

18 August 2014

1. Romeo and Juliet have a date at a given time, and each will arrive at the meeting place with a delay
between 0 and 60 min, in steps of 1 min, with all pairs of delays being equally likely. The first to
arrive will wait for 15 min and will leave if other has not yet arrived. What is probability that they
will meet?
(5).
Ans: Let us use as sample space the square = [0, 60] [0, 60], whose elements are the possible
pairs of delays for the two of them. Our interpretation of equally likely pairs of delays is to let the
probability of a subset of (the shaded region). This probability law satises the three probability
axioms. The event that Romeo and Juliet will meet is the shaded region in Figure and its probability
can be calculated as:

The event M that Romeo and Juliet will arrive within 15 minutes of each other :
M = {(x, y)| |x y| 15, 0 x 60, 0 y 60}
and is shaded in the figure.
Total number of events happening is :n(N1 ) + n(M) + n(N2 ),
where N1 and N2 are the lower and upper triangles in the figure repectively, where Romeo and
Juliet will not meet for their date and n() denotes the number of occurances of the event.
The events happening in the lower triangle in the Figure, N1 in terms of the respective delays
occured in Romeo/Juliets arrival are
{(16, 0)}(1 term), {(17, 1), (17, 2)}(2 terms), ..., {(60, 0), (60, 1), ...(60, 44)(45 terms)}.
Thus, n(N1 ) = 1 + 2 + ...45 = (45/2) 46
And the total number of events, n(N) = 61 61. Also n(N1 ) = n(N2 )
So, the probability for Romeo and Juliet to have their date,
n(M)
(45/2)462
p(M) = n(N) = 1 p(N1 ) p(N2 ) = 1 6161 = 0.4437
2. A class consisting of 4 graduate and 12 undergraduate students is randomly divided into 4 groups
of 4. What is the probability that each group includes a graduate student?
(5)
Ans: We interpret randomly to mean that given the assignment of some students to certain slots,
any of the remaining students is equally likely to be assigned to any of the remaining slots. We then
calculate the desired probability using the multiplication rule, based on a sequential description.
Let us denote the four graduate students by 1, 2, 3, 4, and consider the events: A1 = {student 1 and
2 are in different groups}, A2 = {student 1, 2 and 3 are in different groups} and A3 = {student 1, 2, 3
and 4 are in different groups}.
Calculate P(A3 ) using multiplication rule as: P(A3 ) = P(A1 A2 A3 ) = P(A1 )P(A2 |A1 )P(A3 |A1 A2 ).
Since there are 12 student slots in groups other than the one of student 1, and there are 15 student
1

slots overall, excluding student 1, we have: P(A1 ) = 12/15.

Since there are 8 student slots in groups other than the one of students 1 and 2, and there are 14
student slots, excluding students 1 and 2, we have P(A2 |A1 ) = 8/14 .
Also, since there are 4 student slots in groups other than the one of students 1, 2, and 3, and there
are 13 student slots, excluding students 1, 2, and 3, we have: P(A3 |A1 A2 ) = 4/13.
Thus the desired probability is: P(A3 ) = (12/15) (8/14) (4/13).
3. A computer network connects two nodes A and B through intermediate nodes C, D, E and F, as
shown in Fig. For every pair of directly connected nodes, say i and j, there is a given probability
Pij that is the link from i to j is up. Assuming that link failures are independent of each other, what
is the probability that there is a path connecting A and B?
(5)

Ans: P(success of a series connection)=p1 p2 ...pm and

P(success of a parallel connection)=P(1-failure of parallel connection)=1 (1 p1 )(1 p2 )...(1 pm ),
where pi is the probability of success of a link.
Thus, by applying parallel connection case,
P(C B) = 1 (1 P(C E)P(E B))(1 P(C F)P(F B)) = 1 (1 0.8 0.9)(1 0.95 0.85) =
0.946.
And, by series connection,
P(A C and C B) = P(A C)P(C B) = 0.9 0.946 = 0.851 and
P(A D and D B) = P(A D)P(D B) = 0.75 0.95 = 0.712
The desired probability has now reduced to a parallel connection again (either-or) :
P(A B) = 1 (1 P(A C)P(C B))(1 P(A D)P(D B)) = 1 (1 0.851)(1 0.712) = 0.957.
4. Each of k jars contains M white and N black balls. A ball is randomly chosen from jar 1 and
transferred to jar 2, then a ball is randomly chosen from jar 2 and transferred to jar 3, etc. Finally a
ball is chosen from jar k. Find the probability that the last ball is white?
(5)
th
Ans: Derive a recursion for the probability pi that a white ball is chosen from i jar. Thus
m+1
m
pi +
(1 pi )
m+n+1
m+n+1


m+1
m
m
=

pi +
m+n+1 m+n+1
m+n+1
1
m
=
pi +
m+n+1
m+n+1

pi+1 =

where the initial probability, p1 = m/(m + n). Thus we have

1
m
m
m
+
=
m+n+1m+n m+n+1 m+n
Thus without loss of generality, pi = m/(m + n) if pi1 = m/(m + n), which holds true i.
p2 =

5. Alice and Bob have 2n + 1 coins, each coin with probability of heads equal to 1/2. Bob tosses n + 1
coins, while Alice tosses the remaining n coins. Assuming independent coin tosses, show that the
probability that after all coins have been tosses, Bob would have gotten more heads than Alice is
1/2.
(5).
2

Ans: Suppose that Bob first flips n coins, then flips one more for a total of n + 1 coin flips. Let Xn be
the number of heads that Bob has on his first n flips. If Xn < Y then Bob cannot win, because even
if his last coin is heads he can at best tie with Alice. If Xn > Y then Bob has won, regardless of the
outcome of his last coin flip. If Xn = Y , then Bob wins if and only if his last coin shows heads. The
quantities Xn and Y have the same distribution and are independent of one another (each is the
number of heads showing in n independent coin flips). So by symmetry, P(Xn > Y) = P(Xn < Y).
Let W be the event that Bob wins, we compute

P(W) = P(Xn < Y)P(W|Xn < Y) + P(Xn > Y)P(W|Xn > Y) + P(Xn = Y)P(W|Xn = Y)
= P(Xn < Y).0 + P(Xn > Y).1 + P(Xn = Y)
1
[2P(Xn > Y) + P(Xn = Y)]
2
1
= [P(Xn < Y) + P(Xn > Y) + P(Xn = Y)]
2
1
=
2
=

1
2