Why You Cant Beat Low-Limit Games.

by Alan Schoonmaker | Published: Aug 20, 2014

Alan Schoonmaker
Many players complain bitterly that they cant beat $2-$4,
$3-$6, and $4-$8 fixed limit games. They insist that they
play well, but lose because:
There are too many idiots.
They dont respect my raises.
They chase with weak draws.
My good hands dont hold up.
I cant push anybody off a hand.
Some frustrated players have switched to no-limit. One
joined our low-limit game and grumbled constantly about
this stupid game. His silliest complaint was, When I
played here, I flopped top set and couldnt push an idiot off
a backdoor-flush draw. In no-limit Id shove all in.
Because I dont teach while playing, I said nothing, but
would tell a coaching client, You dont want him to fold.
Youre a huge favorite. Why settle for a small pot?
Most clients would agree, but a few would say (or think),
You may be right, but bad beats are so frustrating. Of
course they are, but poker isnt about avoiding frustration;
its about winning money. You should risk frustration to
increase your profits.

With top set against almost any hand you have by far
the best of it, and you should make the most of it. When
someone with only a backdoor-flush draw calls, hes giving
you most of his bet. You want him to make stupid calls,
even though youll occasionally lose.
A few clients might say, Thats OK if youre heads up, but
in my games four, five, or more people often chase me.
Somebody usually draws out.
That argument sounds reasonable, but its wrong. With
bigger fields theres a higher probability that someone will
draw out, but you still want them to call with negative
expected value (EV) draws. With top set and no obvious
flush or straight draws, virtually every hand is a huge
underdog.
A friend objected, But if the pot is large, its often plus EV
to call.
Of course, it is, but you want them to make negative EV
calls. Unless the pot is so large that theyre getting
profitable odds, you want them to call.
Total Equity Is Always Exactly 100 Percent
If your equity is 60 percent with five opponents, their
average equity is only 8 percent each. If and only if their
chances of winning are worse than the price theyre getting,
their calls increase your EV.
Your equity percentage goes down as the number of chasers

goes up, but the pot often increases faster than your
percentage goes down. Therefore, if more people chase and
your hand is strong enough, your EV often increases. You
win fewer pots, but theyre much bigger, which more than
offsets the lost pots.
The Fundamental Theorem of Poker
Lets consider one part of it: Every time opponents play
their hands differently from the way they would have
played if they could see all your cards, you gain. (The
Theory of Poker). After seeing your top set, any sane
opponent would fold because the odds against him are so
bad.
A wise guy might reply, But some opponents are crazy.
Theyd call anyway. Id laugh and say, Good. If they
want to give you their money, take it.
Opponents Mistakes Increase Your Profits.
Players complain bitterly about opponents stupidity
because they dont understand that if everyone played
properly the rake and other costs would defeat everybody.
Only the house would win.
They also dont realize that every cent of your long term
profit playing poker comes from exploiting your
opponents errors and predictable tendencies. (Miller,
Sklansky, and Malmuth (Small Stakes Holdem) They
emphasized this point by saying, If you do not win in the

long term, it is not because your opponents are making too

many mistakes; it is because you are. (p. 18)
When I say that, some people go ballistic. My mistakes? I
played my hand perfectly, but this idiot If I reply that
one, two or ten bad beat stories dont prove they dont
make serious mistakes, they insist that they play just the
way the books recommend, then angrily demand, What
mistakes do I make?
The answer is simple: Virtually all low-limit players dont
give enough weight to costs. In fact, most of them dont
seriously think about costs, even though the rake, jackpot
drop, and tokes cost so much that its extremely difficult to
beat many low-limit games.
Lets digress briefly. Someone once told me, My friend is
a terrible craps player. He makes stupid bets.
I asked, Didnt you say youve lost heavily at craps?
Yes, but Ive had some great nights. My friend loses much
more than me because I know how to play.
I could hardly keep from laughing. He insisted hes good
even though he loses. He must lose because craps is
unbeatable. The same principle applies whenever skill cant
overcome costs. Since costs have such dramatic effects
upon their results, why dont most serious low-limit players
carefully analyze them?
Three reasons: First, some play for fun and dont care about

costs. Second, they dont understand how important costs

are. They think, Whats another dollar or two? Theyre
making a huge mistake. That dollar or two comes out of
every pot they win, which dramatically affects their edge,
and edge is the most important concept in poker small
differences in edge add up dramatically over time you
must emphasize edge, including the small edges, in all your
poker decisions. (Roy Cooke, Understanding Edge In
Poker, Part II, Card Player, 1/22/14)
Third, analyzing and adjusting to costs is very hard work.
The books dont help because costs vary too much between
rooms.
Factoring costs into your decisions fits right into the
experts standard rule: The correct decision depends upon
the situation, but we should add: including your costs.
Since low-limit games costs are so high, many decisions
which are correct without considering the costs are really
serious mistakes. Therefore, you should carefully analyze
your costs effects when you:
Choose a game. You must be much better than your
opponents to cover the huge costs.
Choose a seat. Choose seats with the biggest edge.
Decide whether to quit or stay. Frequently reevaluate your
edge: If the game or your play has changed, do you have a
large enough edge to beat this game with these players and
costs now?
Decide whether to fold, check, call, bet, or raise. Factor
your costs into every decision. A decision thats plus EV in

low cost games is often minus EV in high cost games.

In other words, constantly ask, Do I have a large enough
edge to cover my costs? Unless youre playing just for
fun, if the answer is, No, dont do it.
Future articles will describe my crude, but fairly effective,
methods. If you dont properly evaluate and adjust to all
your costs, you probably cant beat most low-limit games.

Why You Cant Beat Low-Limit Games Part II

by Alan Schoonmaker | Published: Oct 15, 2014
Alan Schoonmaker
Part I said many frustrated players blame their losses on
idiotic opponents, but the main reason is often not
correctly evaluating costs (rake, jackpot drop, tips).
Decisions which are plus expected value (EV) in low cost
games are often minus EV in high cost games.
They blame idiots because bad beats are so dramatic, but
they rarely occur. Because the rake and other costs are a
few dollars here and there, they hardly notice them, even
though they cost thousands of dollars per year and can
destroy your results.
You Need A Big Edge.
Mike Caro once wrote about a 10 percent rake: On a finalround bet into a lone opponent (assuming no cap on the
rake), youd need a 5-to-4 edge just to break even
assuming youd always be called and there were no
possibility of a raise. In some low-limit games, the costs
on that final bet are more than double 10 percent, and you
need a much bigger edge than 5-to-4.
Why is there such a dramatic difference? The house doesnt
take 10 percent of dollars in the pot; it takes $1 whenever
pots reach certain sizes. Las Vegas rooms generally take $1
at $10, $20, $30, and $40. A few take another dollar at $50.

Many take a jackpot drop of $1 at $10, and a few take a

second dollar at $20, $30, or $40.
Lets say youre playing $2-$4 in a Las Vegas room with a
standard rake of $1 at $10, $20, $30, and $40 and a jackpot
drop of $1 at $10 and $ $30. You open-raise with A K,
and only the blinds call. You bet the flop of A 7 2 and
they both call. You bet the turn of 6, and only one calls.
The river is the Q, so no flush or straight is possible. If
you bet and get called, what odds are you laying that your
hand is best?
Youre laying 2-to-1. You may not believe me, so lets do
the math.
Preflop the pot was $12 (3 x $4). They took $2 for the
rake and jackpot drop (R&JPD)
On the flop it became $18 (add 3 x $2).
On the turn it became $26 (add 2 x $4). They raked
another dollar.
On the river, if you bet $4 and got called, the total pot
became $34, so two more dollars went for R&JPD. You
risked $4, but can win only $2.
Since hell fold his weakest hands, would you offer 2:1?
Perhaps you would, but you should know that youre
offering 2:1.
Heres another question: Can adding money to the pot
make it smaller?

Yes, and it happens frequently when the blinds are $1 and

$2 (in limit or no-limit holdem). If three players limp, and
the SB folds, the pot is $9, and nothing is taken. If the SB
completes, the pot becomes $10, the house takes $2 for the
R&JD, and the pot becomes $8. So the pot is smaller and
you must beat one more opponent.
The Smaller The Stakes, The Bigger Your Edge Must Be.
In Understanding Edge, Part I (Card Player, 1/8/14) Roy
Cooke wrote: Smaller games generally have easier
competition, but the playing costs relative to the amount bet
are significantly higher, requiring a larger edge to break
even you need a very wide spread in abilities between
yourself and your opponents in order to make any sort of
substantial sum if youre playing in small-medium size
games.
Roy was too tactful. He played low-limit many years ago
when his games maximum rake was only $2, and he didnt
play in jackpot games. Now, because poker rooms costs
have greatly increased and many low-limit players like
jackpots, the maximum rake is much higher, and another
dollar or two goes for jackpots. Those increases make it
much harder to break even, and its almost impossible to
win significantly.
Low-limit players pay an enormously higher rake
proportionally than middle-limit players. Lets compare $4$8 at a room with a typical rake and a jackpot drop of $1 at
$10 and $30 to a large Las Vegas rooms $10-$20 game.

The rake and JPDs percentage is much lower for $10-$20,

and most $10-$20 and bigger games dont have jackpots.
$4-$8 $10-$20
Total pot
Rake JPD Total
Percentage
Total
pot
Rake Percentage
$10 $1
$1
$2
20% $20 $1
5%
$20 $2
$3 15%
$50 $2
4%
$30 $3
$2
$5
16.67% $80 $3
3.75%
$40 $4
$6
15% $130 $4
3.1%
That jackpot money is mostly returned to the players, but
many pay far more than they get back. Future articles will
describe ways to get better value from your jackpot
contributions.
And I havent included tips, which obviously increase your
costs.
The Smaller The Pot, The Bigger Your Edge Must Be.
The R&JPD take a much higher percentage from small pots
than large ones. From a $100 pot in that $4-$8 game the
house takes $6 (6 percent). From a $40 pot, it takes the
same $6 (15 percent). From a $10 pot, it takes $2 (20
percent).
If youre heads-up and have 6 percent costs, you need more
than 53/47 to break even. With 15 percent, you need more
than 57/43. With 20 percent, you need more than 60/40.
Lets do the math:

 $100-6=94. You invest $50 and get back .53 x $94 =

$49.82.
$40-6=34. You invest $20 and get back .57 x $34 =
$19.38.
$10-2=8. You invest $5 and get back .6 x $8 = $4.80
Dont Deny Reality.
Part I said most low-limit players dont think seriously
about costs for three reasons: First, some play for fun and
dont care about costs. Second, they dont understand how
important costs are. They think, Whats another dollar or
two? That dollar or two comes out of every pot they
win, which dramatically affects their edge, and edge, is the
most important concept in poker small differences in
edge add up dramatically over time you must emphasize
edge, including the small edges, in all your poker
decisions. (Roy Cooke, Understanding Edge In Poker,
Part II, Card Player, 1/22/14)
You should now realize that those few dollars from every
winning pot massively affect your results. If you still think
costs are unimportant, youre denying reality.
Denial is extremely common: Without denial, the entire
gambling industry would collapse. Despite countless
warnings that craps, roulette, and most other games are
unbeatable, millions of people lose billions playing them.
Unless theyre playing just for fun, theyre denying that
painful reality.

As you walk past the craps and roulette games, you may
look down at those stupid gamblers who play unbeatable
games. But, if you deny reality about your games costs,
youre not much smarter than they are. Youre blaming
idiots for your disappointing results because its
intellectually and emotionally easier than accepting the
responsibility to accept, analyze, and adjust to reality.
Even if you accept reality, the third factor is still a problem:
Its very hard work to analyze and adjust to your games
high costs, and you cant get much help from the books.
Thats why my future articles will tell you how to do it.

Why You Cant Beat Low-limit Games Part III

by Alan Schoonmaker | Published: Sep 17, 2014
Alan Schoonmaker
Parts I and II showed that you need a huge edge to
overcome the high costs of low-limit games. If you havent
read them, do it at cardplayer.com. Unless you see and
believe the evidence, youll probably continue to play the
same old way, lose money, and make the same silly excuses
listed in Part I:
There are too many idiots.
They dont respect my raises.
They chase with weak draws.
My good hands dont hold up.
I cant push anybody off a hand.
Accept That Frequent Bad Beats Are Inevitable.
This acceptance is absolutely essential. Bad beats cant
cause your long-term losses because you get them only
when your opponents chase with weak hands. Since that
mistake increases your expected value (EV) and profits,
you should want them to call with weak hands, even though
someone will frequently draw out on you. Frequent, painful
bad beats are an inescapable part of most low-limit games.
If you cant accept without whining (openly or silently)
that painful fact, dont play in low-limit games.

If you cant accept it, but play anyway, youll probably lose
money, and youll certainly get upset again and again.
When youre upset, youll probably make costly mistakes.
After accepting the game as it is, you can make intelligent
adjustments. This column discusses game selection; future
columns will discuss strategic adjustments. Game selection
is always the most important poker decision, and, when the
costs are high, its particularly important.
If you select the wrong games, nothing else matters much.
To overcome the high costs, select games with:
The best combination of rake, jackpot drop (R&JPD), and
bonuses
Spread-limits
Many weak opponents
The right kinds of weak opponents
Since youll rarely find games with everything you want,
you should evaluate the entire package. For example, if the
game with the best combination of bonuses and R&JPD has
the toughest players, go somewhere else.
Best Combination of Rake, Jackpot Drop, and Bonuses
In Las Vegas the maximum rake is $3-to-$5, and the JPD is
$0-to-$2. Well defer evaluating bonuses until a future
column. Its obviously harder to win with a larger R&JPD
and poorer bonuses, but many people foolishly try.

Spread-Limits
Some states dont allow no-limit games, but do allow very
wide spreads such as $5-$60. Since they are not low-limit
games, well consider only small games such as $2-$6 and
$2-$10. Unfortunately, only a few rooms offer them.
Because spread-limits make games more complex, skill
becomes more important, increasing your edge. They offer
weak forms of some of no-limits advantages without the
huge swings. You can use two more skills than in fixed
limit games: (1) Varying your bets; (2) Reading your weak
opponents cards from the size of their bets.
Varying your bets: Betting a much larger percentage of the
pot helps you to bluff and to protect your good hands.
Larger bets also help you to exploit low-limit players
major weakness, calling too loosely.
For example, if a $4-$8 player limps, you can raise only $4,
and he and (sometimes) the BB get satisfactory odds to
call. In $2-$6, you can raise $6, three times the limpers
and BBs investment. If they fold, their investment
becomes dead money. If they call, their odds usually make
calling EV.
The flop offers the same advantage. If youre BB in a $4-$8
game and one player limps and the SB completes, the pot is
$12. If you bet $4, your opponents risk $4 to win $16
(before the R&JPD which make the odds much worse). If

youre BB in a $2-$6 game with the same preflop action,

the pot is only $6, and you can make a pot-sized bet. Your
first opponent gets only 2-to-1 (before the R&JPD).
Bluffs are obviously more effective when you bet a larger
percentage of the pot.
Paying off weak players usually costs less. They usually
draw out on the turn and river. If youre heads up, have
aces, raised preflop, bet the flop and turn, and lose to a
runner-runner flush, he pays the same amount to draw, but
receives 25 percent less after drawing out. In $4-$8, he
pays $20 ($8 preflop, $4 flop, and $8 turn) and wins $8 on
the river. In $2-$6, he pays the same $20 ($8 preflop, $6
flop and turn), but wins only $6 on the river).
If he draws out on the turn, he pays more to draw, but wins
less (pays $8 preflop, $6 flop, and wins $12 on the turn and
river versus $8 pre-flop, $4 flop, and wins $16 on turn and
river). These differences may sound trivial, but over time
they add up.
You can also make blocking bets when youre out of
position against weak opponents. For example, you can bet
$2 with fairly weak hands. If you checked, someone might
bet the maximum, and you shouldnt call. Of course, you
shouldnt make such bets into strong players. They would
quickly recognize and exploit your predictability.
Reading your weak opponents cards: Its obviously easier
to read their cards when they can vary their bets. You have
much more information, and youll slowly learn that some

opponents make small bets with weak hands, while others

have different patterns.
Many Weak Opponents
You cant get a large enough edge unless your opponents
are much weaker than you are. Dont complain about too
many idiots. Choose games that are full of them. Im not
kidding. Ignore those excuses for your bad results, and pick
games with the weakest players. Most of your profits come
from your opponents mistakes, and you want players who
make one mistake after another.
Will they occasionally give you bad beats? Of course, they
will, but you get bad beats only when youve been way
ahead. Your edge is obviously bigger against the weakest
players, and you must never forget that you need a huge
edge to cover the high costs.
Since most players overestimate their own skills and
underestimate their opponents, ask a coach or respected
player to evaluate you and your opponents. Pick a critical,
knowledgeable person who will tell you the truth you need
to learn, not the lies you want to hear. (Youre great, and
theyre terrible.)
The Right Kind Of Weak Opponent
Weak opponents arent enough. You need the right
weaknesses. You probably cant cover your costs unless
most opponents are both loose and passive. In tight games
the pots are so small that the R&JPD are an extremely high

percentage of the pot. You need a much bigger edge in

small pots, and your cards will rarely have a large enough
edge over the quality hands tight opponents play.
In loose-aggressive games the pots will be large, but
because the pots are large and these players are hard to read
youll be forced to call with marginal hands.
With loose-passive players the pots are generally large,
reducing the R&JPDs impact. Your carefully selected
hands have a large edge over theirs, and its easy to read
their bets and raises.
Dr. Al (alan_schoonmaker@yahoo.com) coaches only on
psychology issues. For information about seminars and
webinars, go to propokerseminars.com. He is David
Sklanskys co-author of DUCY? and the sole author of four
poker psychology books.