Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Normal Probability
1

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Betsy Greenberg

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Describe the shape of the distribution.

Describe the distribution.

Betsy Greenberg

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Normal Distribution

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Nomal Approximation to Binomial

The Binomial distribution is used when were
counting the number of successes
in n independent trials
each with probability p of success

The model for symmetric, bell-shaped, unimodal histograms is

the Normal model.

A discrete Binomial model is approximately Normal if we

expect at least 10 successes and 10 failures:

We write N(, ) to represent a Normal model with mean

and standard deviation .

Betsy Greenberg

np 10 and n(1 p) 10

McCombs

Normal Probability

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Statistics and Modeling

Statistics and Modeling

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Central Limit Theorem

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

The Normal Probability Distribution

The probability distribution of a sum of independent random

variables of comparable variance tends to a normal distribution
as the number of summed random variables increases.

Defined by the parameters and

The mean locates the center

Explains why bell-shaped distributions are so common

Observed data are often the accumulation of many small
factors (e.g., the value of the stock market depends on many
investors)
Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

The Normal Probability Distribution

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

The 68-95-99.7 Rule (Empirical Rule)

Defined by the parameters and

The standard deviation controls the spread

P( < x < + ) = 68%

P( 2 < x < + 2) = 95%
P( 3 < x < + 3) = 99.7%

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Statistics and Modeling

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Statistics and Modeling

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Other probabilities

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Example

Suppose a packaging system fills boxes such that the weights

are normally distributed with a = 16.3 oz. and = 0.2 oz.
Standardize
z=

The package label states the weight as 16 oz.

What is the standardized value?

Use the Table of Normal Probabilities
Figure 5.5 on page 216 (DA&DM)
Table Z in Appendix D, pages A108-A109 (BS)

What is the probability that a box has less than 16 oz?

Use Excels NORM.DIST function

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Standardize and use table

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Departures from Normality

Suppose a packaging system fills boxes such that the weights

are normally distributed with a = 16.3 oz. and = 0.2 oz.
The package label states the weight as 16 oz.

Multimodality: More than one mode suggesting data come

from distinct groups
Skewness: Lack of symmetry

To what weight should the mean of the process be adjusted so

that the chance of an underweight box is only 0.005?

Statistics and Modeling

Departures from Normality

Statistics and Modeling

Example

Betsy Greenberg

Normal Probabilities

Use Excel

Statistics and Modeling

Normal Probability

Normal Probability

McCombs

Outliers: Unusual extreme values

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Departures from Normality

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Normal Quantile Plot

Normal Quantile Plot

Diagnostic scatterplot used to determine the appropriateness of a

normal model
If data track the diagonal line, the data are normally distributed
Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Statistics and Modeling

Normal Probability

Betsy Greenberg

McCombs

Statistics and Modeling

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Normal Quantile Plot

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Install StatTools

Go to
http://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/Tech/ComputerServices/COE/Decision-Tools
Login with your UTEID
You must be running Windows and Excel for Windows
On Mac, use Remote Desktop

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Try StatTools

Normal Probability

Normal Probabilities

Departures from Normality

Departures from Normality

Skewness
Measures lack of symmetry.
K3 = 0 for normal data.

Use the Data Set Manager to define the data set

K3 =

Make a histogram

z13 + z23 + + zn3

n

Make a boxplot

Kurtosis

Make a Normal Quantile plot

Measures the prevalence of

outliers.
K4 = 0 for normal data.
K4 =

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

McCombs

Betsy Greenberg
Statistics and Modeling

z14 + z24 + + zn4

3
n

StatTools doest not

have 3 in the K4
formula
McCombs