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Offshore Market

AHTS & PSV Market Overview


Fleet status as per 2 January 2015
Source: IHS MarineBase & Maersk Broker Research

Outline

Analysis on Oil Market 2H, 2014

AHTS / PSV Supply Dynamics Analysis


AHTS/ PSV fleet profile
Fleet overview
Age distribustion

AHTS/ PSV market profile


Orderbook
Delivery

Geographical distribution
Fleet activity in main regions
Top 20 owners
Fleet growth forecast

Scrapping
Newbuilding, second-hand market
Steel Price

Concluding Remarks

Analysis on Oil Market 2H 2014

Oil Price Review-2H 2014

The average Brent in 1H was


USD 109 per barrel and USD
89 in 2H, dropping by 18%
in 2H.
The average of Brent in Q4
was USD 76 per barrel,
down 25% from Q3.
The average of WTI in 1H
was USD 101 per barrel and
USD 85 per barrel in 2H,
down 16%.

120
115
110

105
100
95
USD/barrel

90
85
80
75
70

65
60
55

50

The average of WTI in Q4


was USD 73 per barrel,
down 26% from Q3.

45

Brent Dated, FOB Sullom Voe, Close

Then to drop to USD 40


level early 2015.

WTI, Light Crude Spot, NYMEX

Oil Price Forecast


EIA
WTI Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil

2015
54.58
57.58

2016
71.00
75.00

(Unit: USD per barrel, from Short-term Energy Outlook, released by EIA in January,2015)

IMF Crude oil, USD/barrel


Avg. spot price (Brent, Dubai, WTI)

Spot Crude

2015
56.7

2016
63.9

2017
68

2018
70.9

2019
72.1

2020
72.6

(Source: IMF Commodity Price Forecasts, January 2015)

Decreased Global Oil Demand Growth(2013-2015)


Unit: Milion barrels per day
13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4

2013

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4

2014

15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4

2015

Africa

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.1

Americas

30.2

30.5

31.1

31.1

30.7

30.4

30.4

31.1

31.3

30.8

30.6

30.7

31.3

31.5

31

Asia/Pacific

30.7

29.8

29.8

30.9

30.3

31.2

30.1

29.9

31.2

30.6

31.6

30.6

30.7

31.8

31.2

Europe

13.8

14.5

14.6

14.2

14.3

13.7

14.1

14.6

14.2

14.1

13.8

14.1

14.4

14.1

14.1

FSU

4.5

4.6

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

Middle East

7.5

7.9

8.4

7.7

7.9

7.8

8.2

8.6

7.8

8.1

7.9

8.4

8.8

8.2

8.3

90.6

91.2

92.5

92.8

91.8

91.6

91.6

93.3

93.9

92.6

92.5

92.5

94

94.4

93.3

Annual Chg(%)

1.3

1.7

1.6

0.9

1.4

1.2

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.1

0.9

0.9

Annual Chg(mb/d)

1.1

1.5

1.5

0.8

1.2

1.1

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

World

The outlook for global oil demand growth for 2015 has been cut by 230 kb/d to 0.9 mb/d on
lower expectations for the FSU and other oilexporting countries.

Sharply lower oil prices since midJune have, to date, led to little positive impact on global oil
product demand.

The Russian forecast has been hit particularly hard by the market selloff, with the forecast for
2015 revised down by 195 kb/d, to 3.4 mb/d. The impact of economic sanctions and uncertainty
over Russias policy towards Ukraine will likely aggravate price effects.

Source:IEA, Oil Market Report, published in December 2014

World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption


96

Million barrels per day (MMbbl/d)

94

92

3
90

Forecast

88
86

84

82
-1
80
-2

78
76

-3

Implied Stock and Balance( right axis )

World Production

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2014

World Consumption

World Crude Oil Proved Reserves(Billon barrels)


1,800

1,600

40

1,400
35
1,200
30

1,000

25

800
600

20
400
15

200

10

Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate (Billion Barrels Per Year)
World Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)
1990

2000

2013

Produc tion of Crude Oil inc luding


Lease Condensate
(Billion Barrels Per Y ear)

22.1

25

27.8

World Crude Oil Proved Reserves


(Billion Barrels)

1000.5

1016.8

1646.0

45.3

40.7

59.2

Number of Y ears Produc tion

Source: EIA, December 2014

Reserves: Billion Barrels

Production: Billion Barrels Per Year

45

E&P Reduction
International Capital Spending by Regions( USD mn)

Middle East
latin America
Russia/FSU
India, Asia and Australia
Europe
Africa
Majors(International)
NAM Independents(International)
Other(International)
Total International Spending

2013

2014E

2015F

2013-2014 %

2014-2015 %

34,777
74,137
48,317
108,534
46,014
24,225
104,946
17,435
4,581
462,966

40,180
78,671
51,348
112,499
45,921
26,286
104,813
18,565
5,161
483,444

46,000
74,934
44,606
105,735
38,248
27,725
94,640
14,120
5,041
451,049

15.50%
6.10%
6.30%
3.70%
-0.20%
8.50%
-0.10%
6.50%
12.70%
4.40%

14.5%
-4.7%
-13.1%
-6.0%
-16.7%
5.5%
-9.7%
-23.9%
-2.3%
-6.7%

Source: Baker Hughes

E&P spending by major oil company

Shell, will cut its capital spending by $15bn over 2015-17. 40% projects will be delayed or
cancelled.

Total, announced to reduce group-wide capital spending by 10% this year and speed up billions
of dollars in asset disposals.

Conoco, planned 33% cut in its capital spending this year to $11.5bn, $2bn less than it had
suggested in December 2014.

Occidental Petroleum, announced 33% cut of spending of 2015.

Source: Financial Times, January 29,2015

Falling Rig Utilization Rates


100.0%

110.0%
105.0%

95.0%

Rig Utilation Rate

Rig Utilation Rate

100.0%
95.0%

90.0%
85.0%

90.0%

85.0%

80.0%

80.0%
75.0%

75.0%

70.0%

70.0%

U.S. Gulf of Mexico

South America

West Africa

Europe/Mediterranean Sea

Rig utilization in Gulf of Mexico


decreased by 19% from the
beginning of 2014

Middle East

Asia/Australia (excludes India)

Rig utilization in West Africa


decreased by 14% from the
beginning of 2014

10

Rig/OSV Utilization Rates


Including spot vessels
NW Europe/North Sea
Utilization Rate
Rig

97.5%

AHTS

96.6%

PSV

99.0%

Trend

US Gulf of Mexico
Utilization Rate
Rig

81.3%

AHTS

80.7%

PSV

91.0%

Middle East
Trend

Utilization Rate

Utilization Rate

Rig

90.5%

AHTS

93.1%

Rig

85.2%

PSV

94.8%

AHTS

96.9%

PSV

75.8%

West Africa
Utilization Rate

Rig

85.3%

AHTS

90.0%

PSV

96.7%

Trend

South America
Utilization Rate
Rig

99.4%

AHTS

97.8%

PSV

96.3%

Trend

*The arrows indicate the change of utilization rate from last quarter.
** Since Oct2013 IHS Petrodata started using marketed supply to replace
total
supply to calculate rig utilization rates, hence the rates are in
general higher than preivously reported.
Note: Vessels with the avtivity status cold stacked, idle and other work
(out of market) are seen as unemployed n the utilization rate calculation.

World Total
Utilization Rate

11

Asia/Australia

Trend

Rig

90.9%

AHTS

87.9%

PSV

93.3%

Trend

Trend

Summary and Conclusion for Oil Market

Oil price fell surprisingly in strength.

Weaker than expected economic growth, especially in the EU , Japan and China,
continue as a driver for weak oil consumption. Increased capital discipline at oil
companies, cost-cutting measures and scaled-back spending for E&P all bring
more negative outlook.

Spending cuts providing quick spill over in decreased activities.

Forecast on oil prices turn around very uncertain-next 3 months likely to give
stronger indication of direction.

Price fall only partly driven by demand, more by supply and politics.

12

AHTS/PSV Supply Dynamics Analysis

AHTS
AHTS Fleet Profile
Fleet overview
Age distribution
Geographical distribution
Fleet activity in main regions
Top 20 owners
Fleet growth forecast

14

AHTS-Fleet Overview
15 AHTS were removed from
service compared with Q3, 2014

9 more new orders


compared with Q3, 2014

< 4,999 BHP

5,000-6,999
BHP

7,000-9,999
BHP

10,00014,999 BHP

15,00017,999 BHP

>18,000 BHP

Total

211

657

433

267

124

118

1,810

64

20

41

15

151

1.9%

9.7%

4.6%

15.4%

5.6%

12.7%

8.3%

21

65

41

17

154

10.0%

9.9%

9.5%

6.4%

4.0%

4.2%

8.5%

2014 Delivered

36

13

10

67

2015 to be
Delivered

53

15

31

118

Current Fleet

Orderbook
Orderbook as a %
of the Fleet
Idle Vessels
Idle as a % of the
Fleet

15

Trend

AHTS Fleet Cascading Over Time


15,000-17,999
BHP
6%

>18,000 BHP
5%

>18,000 BHP
6%
15,000-17,999
BHP
7%
< 4,999 BHP
12%

< 4,999 BHP


26%

10,000-14,999
BHP
13%

10,000-14,999
BHP
15%
AHTS

AHTS Fleet
End 2004

Fleet
Today
5,000-6,999 BHP
36%

5,000-6,999 BHP
23%

7,000-9,999 BHP
27%

7,000-9,999 BHP
24%

< 4,999
BHP

5,0006,999 BHP

7,0009,999 BHP

2004 year-end

213

184

225

109

Current Fleet

211

657

433

Growth %

-0.9%

257.1%

92.4%

Label format: Segment, Percentage in total fleet

16

10,00015,00014,999 BHP 17,999 BHP

>18,000
BHP

Total

48

42

821

267

124

118

1,810

145.0%

158.3%

181.0%

120.5%

AHTS-Fleet Age Distribution


< 4,999 BHP

5,000-6,999
BHP

7,000-9,999
BHP

10,00014,999 BHP

15,00017,999 BHP

>18,000 BHP

Total

Current Fleet
(no. of vessels)

211

657

433

267

124

118

1,810

Average Age (yr)

26.5

9.9

15.1

12.9

9.3

8.3

13.4

13.7%

90%

1.8%
80%

17.2%

22.5%

69.2%

5.8%
2.8%

5.2%
1.9%
6.0%

More than 25% of


21.7%

8.1%

25.2%

5.8%

70%

0.8%
1.7%
5.9%

0.8%
0.8%
6.5%

100%

25.4%

21.0%

6.0%

3.1%
1.4%
2.3%
8.0%

5.8%

60%

AHTS between 7,0009,999 BHP are more


than 30 years old. Will
scrapping increase?

14.4%
17.8%

50%

26.6%

20.3%

21.8%

Newbuilding activity in
recent years focus on

40%
30%
20%

5,000-6,999BHP and
2.4%
4.3%

above 15,000BHP.

55.7%

51.7%

42.3%

12.8%

37.1%

43.2%

41.1%

10%

10.4%
0%
< 4,999 BHP

5,000-6,999 BHP

0-5 yr

6-10 yr

7,000-9,999 BHP 10,000-14,999 BHP 15,000-17,999 BHP

11-15 yr

16-20 yr

21-25 yr

>18,000 BHP

26-30 yr

17

>30 yr

Grand Total

AHTS-Fleet Geography Distribution


Southeast Asia

40

219

Middle East

75

West Africa

Far East 6
Indian Ocean
Northwest Europe

205

44

South America 5

26

73
9

30

13

26

35

37

25 5

36

11 15 10

Mediterranean/Black Sea 4 24

17

99

30

98

43

5,000-6,999 BHP

15 1

7,000-9,999 BHP
10,000-14,999 BHP
>18,000 BHP

Australia/New Zealand 2510 15 8


Mexico 5 17 14 10
Caspian Sea

< 4,999 BHP

44
25

69

66

11 8 16 4

USA, Gulf of Mexico 536 9 2


Canada, East 0
39 4

Other region 110 4 2


No. of vessels

18

AHTS (30yr+) Geographical Distribution


AHTS >30yr in percentage of total fleet: 21.7%
Current order book in percentage of total fleet: 8.3%

800
700

64

Region
Middle East
West Africa
Southeast Asia
Far East
Indian Ocean
Mediterranean/Black Sea
Northwest Europe
Caspian Sea
South America
USA, Gulf of Mexico
Mexico
Canada, East
Central America
Russian Arctic
Australia/New Zealand
Grand Total
Current Order Book
Vessels recorded
without DP

Most recent orders

90

600
No. of vessels

AHTS >30 yrs

Segment disappear?

500

20

400

109

300

41

567

46

200
100
0

324

146

221

123

65

Fleet <30yr

Fleet >30yr

15
1

117

Order book

19

No. of vessels
82
79
60
33
32
29
18
16
12
9
8
7
4
1
1
393
151
743

Opportunity
for fleet
renewal?

Top 20 AHTS Owners*


Owner
Tidewater
Bourbon Offshore
Swire Pacific
Maersk Supply Service
Zamil Offshore
COSL
Topaz Marine
Vroon
Farstad
Maridive
Jaya Offshore
Pacific Richfield
Seacor Marine
Yantai Salvage
Alam Maritim
POSH Semco
Bumi Armada
Ezra
GulfMark
DOF
Others
Grand Total

< 4,999 BHP


15
13
6
3
1

3
1
1
3
4
1

160
211

5,000-6,999 7,000-9,999
10,00015,000BHP
BHP
14,999 BHP 17,999 BHP
55
39
16
1
5
79
8
1
6
17
11
7
4
14
20
9
10
12
7
1
18
6
2
2
28
1
1
11
4
21
4
9
11
5
16
7
1
11
10
13
7
1
2
14
1
2
12
2
6
6
8
5
5
4
8
1
6
2
8
3
1
10
424
207
161
657
433
267
124

*Ranked by the no. of vessels in the current fleet

20

>18,000
BHP
4
1
2
25
1

12

1
8
64
118

Total Fleet
130
94
56
43
35
34
29
29
28
28
26
25
24
23
21
20
20
19
19
19
1,088
1,810

AHTS
AHTS Market
Orderbook
Delivery
Scrapping
Newbuilding and second-hand market

21

AHTS Order Book


Newbuilding Design

KCM
FOCAL 680
SPA85L

60
2

51

10,000-14,999 BHP

40

5,000-6,999BHP
Current order book: 64 vessels
Design unknown: 50 vessels

Seatech

5,000-6,999 BHP

7,000-9,999 BHP

Seatech P-729

VS4612

< 4,999 BHP

50

No. of Vessels

DN59M

Order Book By Yard Geographically

15,000-17,999 BHP
>18,000 BHP

30
23

20
13
9

10

4.0

6
3

7
4

4
1

SPA 150

VS4612 AHTS

10,000-14,999BHP
Current order book: 41 vessels
Design unknown: 29 vessels

Note: Bubbles indicate orders included in IHS Marinebase


which are doubtful in Maersk Broker view

22

AHTS Delivery Profile


250

120

100

200

150
60
100
40

50

20

On Order (<4,999 BHP)

On Order (5,000-6,999 BHP)

On Order (10,000-14,999 BHP)

On Order (15,000-17,999 BHP)

Delivery (<4,999 BHP)

Delivery (5,000-6,999 BHP)

Delivery (7,000-9,999 BHP)

Delivery (10,000-14,999 BHP)

Delivery (15,000-17,999 BHP)

Delivery (>18,000 BHP)

On Order (7,000-9,999 BHP)

On Order (>18,000 BHP)

Brent Crude Oil Price (right axis)

EIA Crude Oil Price Forecast (right axis)

23

USD/bbl

No. of Vesels

80

AHTS Scrapping
< 4,999 BHP

5,000-6,999 BHP

7,000-9,999 BHP

32.6

30.9

33.0

Average Scrapping Age

10,000-14,999 BHP 15,000-17,999 BHP


31.1

29

25
1
20
10
15

10

1
2

3
2

2009
< 4,999 BHP

1
4

5
2

1
2008

2010
5,000-6,999 BHP

2011

2012

7,000-9,999 BHP

Note: the scrapping number include vessels retired/ removed from service,
scrapped and to be scrapped.

24

2013

4
2
1
2014

10,000-14,999 BHP

AHTS Newbuilding and Second-hand Market


Newbuilding & Second-hand Prices

Newbuilding Contractings

100

250

120

90
100

200

No. of Vessels

70

50
40

80
150
60
100
40

30
20

50

20

10
0

Dec-14

Jun-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

0
Dec-08

Mill. USD

60

0
2008

2009

2010

2011

>18,000 BHP
10,000-14,999 BHP
5,000-6,999 BHP
Brent Oil Price (right axis)

Newbuilding Price - AHTS UT 722L - 18,000 BHP


Second-hand Price - AHTS UT 722L - 18,000 BHP

Note: The newbuilding and 2nd hand prices refer to Norwegian built vessels;
Second-hand price refers to the average price of 5-year old vessels.

25

2012

2013

2014

15,000-17,999 BHP
7,000-9,999 BHP
< 4,999 BHP

USD/bbl

80

AHTS Supply-Summary

AHTS orderbook increased compared with Q3 2014.

Segment of 10,000-14,999 BHP is has largest increase in orderbook.

19 AHTS newbuildings were delivered in Q4.

Scheduled deliveries for 2015 is higher than actual delivered in 2014.

Strong demolition potential remain (393 vessels above 30 years age),


no significant activity in the market.

Scrapping in 2014 less than 50% of 3 preceding years.

Average age of vessels scrapped last 7 years is 32.

New orders in 2014 lower than past 5 years.

26

26

PSV
PSV Fleet
Fleet overview
Age distribution
Geographical distribution
Fleet activity in main regions
Top 20 owners
Fleet growth forecast

27

PSV Fleet Overview


17 PSV were put into service
compared with Q3, 2014

<1,999 dwt
Current Fleet

13 PSV were put into service


compared with Q3, 2014

2,000-2,999 dwt 3,000-3,999 dwt

120 new orders placed in 2015


and 32 new orders in 2016.

> 4,000 dwt

Total

445

165

430

425

1,465

28

24

130

157

339

6.3%

14.5%

30.2%

36.9%

23.1%

16

10

12

10

48

3.6%

6.1%

2.8%

2.4%

3.3%

2014 Delivered

18

46

80

151

2015 to be Delivered

19

13

109

120

261

Orderbook
Orderbook as a % of the
Fleet
Idle Vessels

Idle as a % of the Fleet

28

Trend

PSV Fleet Cascading Over Time

>4,000 dwt
10%
3,000-3,999 dwt
18%

>4,000 dwt
29%

PSV Fleet
End 2004

2,000-2,999 dwt
14%

<1,999 dwt
31%

PSV Fleet
Today

<1,999 dwt
58%

3,000-3,999 dwt
29%

2,000-2,999 dwt
11%

<1,999 dwt

2,000-2,999 dwt

3,000-3,999 dwt

>4,000 dwt

Grand Total

2004 year-end

377

90

119

62

648

Current Fleet

445

165

430

425

1,465

Growth %

18.0%

83.3%

261.3%

585.5%

126.1%

Label format: Segment, Percentage in total fleet

29

PSV Fleet Age Profile


<1,999 dwt

2,000-2,999 dwt

3,000-3,999 dwt

>4,000 dwt

Grand Total

Current Fleet
(no. of vessels)

445

165

430

425

1,465

Average Age (yr)

21.1

12.4

7.8

5.1

11.6

1.9%

100%
12.1%
90%
80%

0.6%
2.4%
8.5%

45.4%

2.1%

0.7%

0.5%

4.2%

4.7%

1.2%
15.9%

6.8%

16.7%

1.1%
1.8%
5.1%

15.5%

70%

More than 70% of PSV


above 4,000 dwt are
younger than 5 years old.

12.4%
24.8%

60%

29.8%

50%

2.9%
1.8%
5.2%

40%

8.8%

20.9%

recent years focus most on


larger vessels.

21.2%
71.5%

30%

17.3%
44.4%

20%

42.9%

30.3%
10%

18.7%

0%
<1,999 dwt

0-5 yr

Newbuilding activity in

2,000-2,999 dwt

6-10 yr

11-15 yr

3,000-3,999 dwt

16-20 yr

>4,000 dwt

21-25 yr

Grand Total

26-30 yr

30

>30 yr

PSV-Fleet Geography Distribution


USA, Gulf of Mexico

159

Northwest Europe 3 13

75

South America

51

West Africa
Middle East

NW Europe/North Sea
Indian Ocean

21
6

26

Mediterranean/Black Sea 41 18

78

95

35

15 14 2

47

65

83

13

60

27

157

15

69

Mexico

59

33

13 5
19

16

Australia/New Zealand 026 14

Far East 17 9 4
<1,999 dwt
Central America

6 5 52

Caspian Sea

7 81

2,000-2,999 dwt
3,000-3,999 dwt
>4,000 dwt

Other 5342
(in No. of vessels)

31

41

81

PSV (30yr+) Geographical Distribution


PSV >30yr in percentage of total fleet: 15.9%
Current order book in percentage of total fleet: 23.1%
700

Most recent orders

An upsizing
trend

Region
USA, Gulf of Mexico
West Africa
Middle East
South America
Mexico
Southeast Asia
Northwest Europe
Mediterranean/Black Sea
Central America
Indian Ocean
Caspian Sea
USA, Alaska
Canada, East
Far East
Baltic
Grand Total
Current Order Book
Vessels recorded
without DP

600

No. of vessels

500

157

130
28

400

422

422

202
300

200

100

24
20
243
145

Fleet <30yr

Fleet >30yr

PSV >30 yrs

Order book

32

No. of vessels
62
46
35
23
22
12
10
6
4
4
4
2
1
1
1
233
339
302

Top 20 PSV Owners*


Owner
Edison Chouest
Tidewater
Bourbon Offshore
Hornbeck
Harvey Gulf (incl. Abdon Callais)
GulfMark
Seacor Marine
Farstad
Deep Sea Supply
DOF
Odyssea
Topaz Marine
Companhia Brasileira de Offshore
Otto Candies
Island Offshore
Adriatic Marine
Ultrapetrol
Havila
Wilson Sons
Swire Pacific
Others
Grand Total

<1,999
dwt
8
29
41
9
27
4
14

1
15
4
5

2,000-2,999 3,000-3,999
dwt
dwt
7
24
14
48
2
25
25
4
11
9
16
20
10
4
2
4
8
8
2
1
1
13
1
13
3
2
7

>4,000
dwt
79
23
13
15
5
10
2
18
15
11
1
1
4
7
10

16
1

272
445

70
165

*Ranked by the no. of vessels in the current fleet

33

3
7
7
223
430

14
10
7
7
173
425

Total Fleet
118
114
81
53
52
50
30
24
23
20
19
19
18
17
17
16
14
14
14
14
738
1,465

PSV
PSV Market
Orderbook
Delivery
Scrapping
Newbuilding and second-hand market

34

PSV Order Book


Newbuilding Design

Order Book By Yard Geographically


100

DN60M

90

A <1,999 dwt

87

B 2,000-2,999 dwt

80
UT535E

C 3,000-3,999 dwt

74

D >4,000 dwt

SPP17

220ft

<1,999dwt
Current order book: 28 vessels
Design unknown: 16 vessels

No. of Vessels

70
60

50
40

20
10

VS4408

20

18

8
2

17

11
2

9
2

16

200ft

KCM75M

ADNOC

27

30

10

Note: Bubbles indicate orders included in IHS Marinebase


which are doubtful in Maersk Broker view

2,000-2,999dwt
Current order book: 24 vessels
Design unknown: 9 vessels

35

13
2 1

300

120

250

100

200

80

150

60

100

40

50

20

Delivery (<1,999 dwt)

Delivery (2,000-2,999 dwt)

Delivery (3,000-3,999 dwt)

Delivery (>4,000 dwt)

On Order (<1,999 dwt)

On Order (2,000-2,999 dwt)

On Order (3,000-3,999 dwt)

On Order (> 4,000 dwt)

Brent Crude Oil Price (right axis)

EIA Crude Oil Price Forecast (right axis)

Note: 2014 backlog incl. vessels which were actually


delivered but not captured by Marinebase, this number will be
adjusted in the next report.

36

USD/bbl

No. of Vesels

PSV Delivery Profile

PSV Scrapping
<1,999 dwt

2,000-2,999 dwt

3,000-3,999 dwt

28.7

25.6

26.0

Average Scrapping Age


14
12
10
8
13

12

10

4
2

0
2008

2009
<1,999 dwt

2010

2011

2012

2,000-2,999 dwt

Note: the scrapping number include vessels retired/ removed from service,
scrapped and to be scrapped.

37

2013
3,000-3,999 dwt

2014

PSV Newbuilding and Second-hand Market


Newbuilding Contractings

Newbuilding & Second-hand Prices


70

250

120

60

100

200

40
30

80
150
60
100
40

20
50

20

10

Dec-14

Jun-14

Dec-13

Jun-13

Dec-12

Jun-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

0
2008

Newbuilding Price -PSV UT745 - 4,000+ DWT

2009

2010

2011

>4,000 dwt
2,000-2,999 dwt
Brent Oil Price (right axis)

Second-hand Price -PSV UT745 - 4,000+ DWT

Note: The newbuilding and 2nd hand prices refer to Norwegian built vessels;
Second-hand price refers to the average price of 5-year old vessels.

38

2012

2013

2014

3,000-3,999 dwt
<1,999 dwt

USD/bbl

No. of Vessels

Mill. USD

50

PSV Supply - Summary

PSV fleet keeps expanding.

PSV orderbook focus is mainly above 3,000 dwt and above 4,000 dwt.

Significance of speculators increasing especially in segment 3,000-4,000


dwt.

17 PSV >4,000 dwt newbuildings were delivered in Q4.

PSV scheduled deliveries for 2015 is significantly higher than the actual
delivered in 2014. Scheduled deliveries of 2016 is less than 1/3 of that
of 2015.

Ordering activity in 2014 lower than preceding 3 years.

No scrapping in 2014 despite 233 vessels being above 30 years.

Average age of scrapped vessels of past 6 years is 31.

39

Demand-Steel Price
1,800

1,600

Sluggish demand and


oversupply situation due to
slowed world economic
growth and iron ore price
slump

1,400

USD/tonne

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Plate / N.Europe domestic Ex-Works

Plate (A36) / N.America domestic Ex-mill

Plate (A36) / East Asia import CFR

Plate / China domestic Shanghai (incl. 17% vat)

40

Concluding Remarks

Scrapping Age Is Getting Lower


Historic Scrapping Activity

Scrapping Age

40

50

35

45

No. of Vessels

30

40

25

35

20
15

30

10

25

20

AHTS

AHTS

PSV

Source: Maersk Broker Research

42

PSV

AHTS Idle Fleet Increased in H2, 2014


Projected

140

Idle No. of Vessels

250
200

120

The E&P spending (2015) announced

100

showed a decrease in spending

80
150
60
100
50
0

PSV Idle

Lower oil price putting negative

20

pressure on market for the offshore

Oil Price-Brent Dated FOB USD/BBL

No. of Vessels

2014 Q1

2014 Q2

2014 Q3

2014 Q4

AHTS Idle

142

125

72

154

PSV Idle

37

32

85

48

Source: Maersk Broker Research

43

compared to 2014.

40

AHTS Idle

Oil price USD/BBL

300

service industry, at least short term .

Both PSV and AHTS utilization will


under pressure in 2015.

Concluding Remarks

Lower oil price putting negative pressure on market for the offshore

service industry, at least short term. Exact duration of downturn still


uncertain. Very long term fundamentals remain positive.

The E&P spending budgets(2015) announced showed significant


spending cuts compared to 2014.

Speculators gaining increased space in standard segments of

newbuilding orders.

Newbuilding activity paused, awaiting the development of oil price.

Yard capacity shows significant amount uncommitted slots.

Newbuilding prices decreased slightly.

Prices for vintage tonnage in free fall.

44

This report is based on our knowledge of relevant market conditions. Our estimates are made on the basis of this knowledge, but
other circumstances, or new circumstances, as well as general uncertainty could cause the market to develop differently. We take
general reservation for misprints. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form
(including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means) without the written permission of the copyright owner.
Likewise, any quoting is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright owner.