VisionMobile-Developer Economics Q32013

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VisionMobile 2013 | www.DeveloperEconomics.com/go
About VisionMobile
Contents
VisionMobileTM is an analyst firm helping companies

leverage and measure mobile ecosystems. We help telcos,
handset makers and companies outside the mobile industry
to create a competitive advantage using ecosystem
strategies. Our mantra: distilling market noise into market
sense.
Key Messages
VisionMobile Ltd.
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London WC2E 9RZ
+44 845 003 8742
Chapter 1: State of the device nation, Q3 2013:

The inflexion point
Chapter 2: Ecosystem economics: competing
against the odds
Chapter 3: State of mobile developer Mindshare:
Q3 2013
Chapter 4: Choices, choices, choices:
www.visionmobile.com/blog
Follow us on twitter: @visionmobile
Which platform is right?

Chapter 5: The multi-platform developer: Its all
Terms of re-use
about priorities
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Chapter 6: How developers mix and match

mobile platforms
Chapter 7: Developer attention in tablets catching
up with smartphones
Chapter 8: Developer revenue models: a box of
chocolates
Chapter 9: Developer tools: crossing the frontier
of platform innovation
Chapter 10: The kaleidoscope of HTML5 app
development
Chapter 11: Understanding the complex mosaic of
developer personas
Chapter 12: Sizing the app economy
Also by VisionMobile
Mobile Innovation Economics Workshop
A strategy workshop introducing the new economic
thinking necessary for successful innovation by telcos.
Find out more visionmobile.com/strategy
Copyright VisionMobile 2013

v.018
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Key Messages
Our latest research of 6,000+ developers the largest and most global
mobile developer survey to date shows an unprecedented level of detail in
developer attitudes, platforms preferences, revenues, revenue models used
and tools of the trade.
The Mobile Developer Mindshare Q3 2013 shows Android leading at 71% of
developers using the platform, followed by iOS at 56%.
HTML5 has entrenched itself as a mobile development technology of
choice, with 52% of the developer population using HTML5 technologies for
developing mobile apps.
Once we double click on that 52% of HTML5 mobile mindshare, a
kaleidoscope of colour and options appears. The largest share (38%) of
HTML5 developers develop mobile websites with another 23% developing
mobile apps, i.e. incorporating offline functionality and deeper browser
integration. Hybrid apps, such as those produced by PhoneGap, account for
27% of HTML5 mobile developers. A minority of 7% of HTML5 mobile
developers use platforms exposing native APIs via JavaScript, such as
Firefox OS, BlackBerry 10 and Windows 8. Last but not least, 5% of HTML5
mobile developers use a Javascript-to-native converter tool like
Appcelerator.
BlackBerry has been successful in transitioning BB legacy developers over
to its new BB10 platform, with the new platform having almost the same
mindshare as the legacy BlackBerry 5/6/7 had, just before the release of
BB10 six months ago.
The strong interest in Windows Phone observed in past surveys is still there
(35% of developers planning to adopt WP), but has subsided by 12
percentage points since Q1 2013. Mobile developers now have a wide gamut
of options with challenger platforms competing for their attention.
Windows 8 is at 40% of Mobile Developer Intentshare, followed by
BlackBerry 10 (28%) and Firefox OS (capturing 27% of all developers
planning to adopt a platform).
There is no one-size-fits-all mobile platforms. Our research shows that iOS
is selected more frequently than average by developers that value revenue
potential (+12%), graphics (+7%), app discovery (+8%) and user reach
(+10%). Developers tend to use HTML5 more frequently as their primary
platform when they value porting (+9%) and speed & cost of development
(+4%). BlackBerry 10 is used more frequently than average as a primary
platform by developers valuing developer community programmes (+16%).
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And Windows Phone is most popular for developers looking for the right
development environment (+3%) and documentation (+2%).
Whether hobbyists or IT managers of Fortune-500 companies, developers
use 2.9 mobile platforms concurrently, according to our recent survey of
6,000+ mobile developers. This is the first time we are observing a shift
towards diversification, since our earlier 2011-2012 research pointed
towards continual platform consolidation: on average mobile developers
used 3.2 mobile platforms in our 2011 survey, compared to 2.7 in 2012 and
2.6 in our Q1 2013 research.
At 2.9 concurrent platforms on average, todays developer is multiplatform. In this world, not all platforms are equally important to a
developer. Prioritisation has an impact on which platform new apps and
features first rolled out on, as well as the focus, app quality, sales and
revenue on that platform. Our data shows that 84% of mobile developers
are using iOS, Android or HTML5 (mobile) as their primary platform.
Our research indicated developers prefer iOS (59%) over Android (49%) as
their primary platform. Whereas Android has 4x times more devices
shipping and a significant lead in Mobile Developer Mindshare, it lags
behind iOS in terms of Android developers using it as their lead platform.
Platform priorities also depend on the level of experience. Developers who
are fresh to mobile have a much stronger preference towards Android, with
almost twice as many new mobile developers preferring Android (40%)
than iOS (21%).
At $5,200 per developer per month on average, iOS continues to be the
most revenue-generating platform for developers, ahead of Android
developer monthly revenues by a margin of 10%.
Our research of 6,000+ mobile developers shows that there is no single
revenue model that is dominant across all platforms. On Windows Phone,
developers have a strong preference towards in-app advertising (43%) and
pay-per download (40%). BlackBerry 10 developers have a strong
preference towards pay-per download (47%). The picture is much more
balanced on Android, iOS and HTML5, with no revenue model dominating
to the extent observed on Windows Phone or BlackBerry 10.
Contrary to popular perception, money is not the only motivator for mobile
app developers - in fact, far from it. Revenues, in some form or other, are
the goal for just 50% of mobile developers.
The hierarchy of developer motivations shows some surprising findings. At
the base of the pyramid, the majority (53%) of mobile developers are
motivated by creativity or the sense of achievement, making this the most
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popular motivator. The fun of making an app, is a motivator for 40% of

mobile developers.
Our research shows that developer tools are in the must-have app
development arsenal of the most sophisticated developers, and also those
making the most revenues. Across the tools spectrum, iOS developers are
the most active and sophisticated, with 92.5% reporting that they use at
least one tool. Therefore, iOS developers have an advantage due to the
higher percentage of tool users, which means they have the infrastructure to
innovate and differentiate.
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About Developer Economics

Welcome to State of the Developer Nation, the 5th edition of Developer
Economics - the de-facto research series by VisionMobile on mobile
development and the trends of the app economy. This report tracks the
state of mobile ecosystems, developer mindshare, monetisation trends,
revenue models and developer tools, based on the largest, most global
developer survey (over 6,000 respondents from 115 countries)
In this report, we take a close look at some of the latest trends in the mobile
ecosystem, including developer Mindshare and platform prioritisation,
platform adoption criteria, revenue models and revenues, as well as multiscreen development. State of the Developer Nation examines some of the
top mobile platforms, pitting the three leading horses in the race (Android,
iOS and HTML5) vs. the newcomers (BlackBerry 10, Windows 8 and
Windows Phone) and the up-and-coming platforms (Firefox OS, Tizen,
Jolla, Ubuntu).
The findings and insights of this report are based on an online survey of
over 6,000 developers, as well as 21 phone interviews, conducted between
April and May 2013. The survey had an unprecedented global reach, with
respondents from over 115 countries worldwide. Our sample was balanced
between Asia, Europe and North America, but we also had a large number
of developers from Africa, Oceania and South America. In order to reach a
global audience and regional developer communities, the survey was
available in eleven languages (Arabic, Chinese, English, French, German,
Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish and Swedish).
We hope you'll enjoy our report - we've certainly enjoyed writing it! If you
have any questions or feedback, you can get in touch at
matos@visionmobile.com. The contents of the report will also become
available in web format over the summer of 2013 at
www.DeveloperEconomics.com/go
AndreasP, Matos, Christina, AndreasC, Dimitris, Vanessa, Chris, Michael,
Nick, Stijn and Mark at VisionMobile.
@visionmobile
www.visionmobile.com/blog
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Thank you!
We'd like to thank everyone who helped us in this project and helped us
create the best Developer Economics report to date!
Our sponsors, without whom we wouldn't have been able to complete this
project: BlackBerry, Mozilla, Intel, Telefonica and MoSync.
Our Regional and Marketing partners, who helped us reach an
unprecedented 6,000 developers across the globe, breaking new records for
the largest, global mobile developer survey.
The developers and mobile insiders that took the time and interest to share
their experiences with us.
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Research Methodology
Developer Economics 5th edition is based on a large-scale online developer
survey and 21 one-to-one interviews with mobile app developers.
The online survey was designed, produced and carried out by VisionMobile
over a period of five weeks between April and early May 2013. One to one
interviews were conducted from May to June 2013.
The online survey received over 6,000 responses, making this the largest
mobile developer survey to date. Respondents to the online survey came
from over 115 countries. The online survey was translated to 10 languages
(Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian,
Spanish, Swedish) and promoted by 46 marketing and regional
partners within the app development industry. As a result, the survey
reached an unprecedented number of respondents, globally balanced across
Europe (40%), Asia (24%) and North America (28%). The survey also
attracted a significant developer sample from Africa (3%) and South America
(5.5%).
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Respondents came primarily from the US (18.7%), India (13.9%) and the
UK (5.6%) followed by Russia, Germany and France and stretching all the
way to Venezuela, Uruguay, Vietnam and Kazakhstan to name a few of the
115+ developer countries who participated, making this research truly
reflective of the new, global, mobile app economy.
The survey gathered responses from developers using as their main
platform Android, Bada, BlackBerry 5/6/7, BlackBerry 10, Chrome,
Facebook, Firefox OS, Flash / Adobe AIR, iOS, Java ME, HTML (targeting
desktop), HTML (targeting mobile), OSX (desktop), Qt, Symbian, Windows
(desktop), Windows Phone, Windows 8 and Tizen. We excluded
respondents not using a mobile platform as their primary development
platform.
To minimise the sampling bias for platform distribution, we compared the
distribution across a number of different developer outreach channels and
identified statistically significant channels that exhibited the lowest
variability from the platform medians across our whole sample base. We
derived a representative platform distribution based on these channels and
weighted our results based on this distribution, as depicted in the graph
below.
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CHAPTER ONE
State of the device nation, Q3 2013:

The inflexion point
2013 presents an inflexion point in the evolution of app ecosystems. Apples
iOS and Googles represent an unprecedented 92% of all smartphone
shipments in Q1 2013, fueling claims that the platform landgrab has ended.
At the same time, a new breed of mobile platforms, BlackBerry 10, Firefox
OS and Tizen are appearing on handsets in 2013, hoping to compete with
the Apple/Google duopoly where Microsofts Windows Phone has failed to
compete.
Android: the falling price floor

The production of feature phones (i.e. phones without an app ecosystem)
has long turned into a commodity business of low-margin, sub-$50 phones
for mostly developing markets, whose pricing boundary is defined by the
lowest-priced Android handset. As the price floor of Android handsets
continues to drop, shipments of feature phones are in a steady and
predictable decline for the past two years, and have been for the first time
surpassed by smartphone shipments.
Of the top handset manufacturers, only Nokia is still shipping feature
phones in their majority, with all other handset makers - led by Samsung having refocused on smartphones. Interestingly, Nokia is one of the few
handset makers who can squeeze profits out of low-end feature phones.
Nokias 105 feature phone retails for $20, with a 29% gross margin
according to IHS.
It might still take years for the installed base of billions of feature phones
out there to be replaced in their majority by smartphones, but the shift in
the sales base has already started. Manufacturers such as Nokia who rely
primarily on feature phone sales, having failed to successfully transition
from own Symbian to Microsoft-powered smartphones, will continue to
lose market share and revenues.
The market continues to be flooded by Android devices, from low-end, $50
retail, feature-phone replacements with no data plans, to high-end, $700
devices on flat data tariffs. In Q1 2013, Android claimed 75% of all
smartphone shipments, while iOS claimed another 18% leaving very little
room for anyone else. 2.5 years since launching its latest Windows
Phone platform, Microsoft is still struggling to make inroads in
smartphones, capturing a measly 3% of smartphone sales.
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Microsofts latest attempt at gaining a mobile market share is Windows 8,

the latest hybrid tablet/notebook version of Windows, with sales slightly up
on a quarterly basis but no sign of being an imminent threat to either
Android or iOS.
A new wave of platform challengers hits the

device floor
Developer momentum is building up on the HTML5 front, despite the
negative sentiments created from Facebooks transition to native apps.
Developer Mindshare puts HTML5 almost on par with iOS and Android as
we shall see. A new set of platform challengers - Firefox OS, BlackBerry 10,
Windows 8, Tizen, Jolla and Ubuntu - aim to capitalise on the millions of
existing web developers that have yet to step into mobile, and of course the
formidable mindshare of HTML5 among mobile developers.
Among new entrant platforms, BlackBerry 10 is gradually making a
transition into the companys shipment mix, shipping 40% of BB10powered devices out of 6.8 million smartphones in Q1 2013. Firefox OS has
recently announced the first two devices hitting the market - the Alcatel
OneTouch Fire and ZTE Open - the latter just launched in Spain from
Telefonica for 69 ($90) contract-free including 30 ($39) of airtime for
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prepaid customers. Tizen handsets are not expected in the market before
Q4 2013, with Ubuntu devices planned for 2014
Among handset makers, Samsung remains in lead position in smartphone

sales, followed by Apple. LG finds itself in third position, partly due to
positive sales of the Google-branded Nexus 4 in the first quarter of the year.
BlackBerry and Nokia continue to lose market share and continue to resist
jumping on the Android platform bandwagon.
The handset maker consolidation at the top end, led by Samsung, is also
combined with a fragmentation of smartphone makers at the long tail of the
distribution. The other segment of smartphone manufacturers is
now selling as many devices as Samsung. These handset makers
are made up of 100s of Android handset producers, leveraging offthe-shelf hardware platforms from Qualcomm and Mediatek and
delivering customised Android handsets to Asia and Africa, with
as small as a 10-people production team and own distribution
networks. In this sense, Samsungs biggest competitor in terms of market
share isnt Apple, but the 100s of handset makers who are able to supply the
cheapest possible smartphones, customised for every corner of the
developing world.
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The elusive ticket to smartphone profits

While Android is a ticket to the smartphone market for handset
makers, its not a ticket to smartphone profits. In Q1 2013 HTCs
profits were down by over 90% and was overtaken by Chinese vendors
Huawei and ZTE mainly due to their exceptional performance in the Chinese
market.
Competition among OEMs in the Android camp is intense: all major
Android vendors are pushing hero devices, i.e. cutting-edge smartphones,
in the hope that they will be able to capitalise on features, brand recognition
and retail relationships to increase their market share.
However, profits are elusive for all modular handset makers (i.e. everyone
other than Apple and BlackBerry) with one exception: Samsung. In a
modular market, differentiation for handset makers is scarce. As such,
profitability has little to do with the platform - be it Android, Windows
Phone or Firefox OS - and everything to do with the current industry
structure.
The reason Samsung is solely making profits among modular
handset makers is because they have realised that there are no
profits to be made in handset production itself. In other words,
hardware is dead. Instead, value has migrated to upwards in the
technology stack (to services) and downwards (to handset
components).
Samsung owns the design and production of memory, processors and
screens, which make up the most visible components (in terms of features)
and most expensive (in terms of hardware cost). This gives the handset
maker two unique benefits.
- Time to market: Samsung can secure availability of these components
first in the market, and ahead of all competing handset makers, including
Apple, which it supplies. Time to market is crucial to handset makers, as
every month of handset delays is equivalent to an estimated 15 million
dollars of lost handset profits, since the development cost is already sunk.
- Lower price points: Samsung can secure those components at the
lowest price point possible, thereby making room for profits. It is the
ownership and integration of hardware components that makes Samsung
profitable amongst all module handset makers.
Samsung can then reinvest those profit gains in advertising (where
Samsung spends more than Coca Cola), R&D (e.g. Tizen), distribution
partnerships and acquisitions that strengthen the competitive advantage it
already has, creating a virtuous cycle. For an analysis of Apples and
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Samsungs profit recipe see VisionMobiles 2012 Mobile Insider research

note at www.visionmobile.com/insider
Its not just smartphones eating into feature phones. Its also tablets which
are eating into PCs (notebook & desktop) shipments. In Q1 2013, PC
shipments experienced a sharp slump ending a two-year period of
a stalled, but relatively stable PC market. This has allowed tablets
to claim an even larger share of the combined PC-tablet market,
now accounting for over 39% of total devices sold. The rise of tablets
has been assisted by the significant sales of Android tablets, including the
Google Nexus. Android now claims a higher market share of tablet sales than
iOS, although many of the Android devices are low-spec offshoots.
While tablets are not direct PC replacements, they are to some extent
substitute products for desktop and notebook PCs. Given the lacklustre
sales of Windows tablets, the erosion of the PC market share in the
combined mobile computing category (tablets, notebooks) has an adverse
effect on Microsoft. As a result, the company sees its 20-year dominance in
the computing world being threatened as it fails to build up scale in mobile
computing.
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CHAPTER TWO
Ecosystem economics: competing

against the odds
2013 presents an inflexion point as a new set of challengers to the
iOS/Android duopoly appears. Two years after Microsoft and Nokia
debuted their new mobile strategy with Windows Phone, a new set of
entrants have surfaced, namely BlackBerry 10, Firefox OS, Tizen, Ubuntu
and Jolla. The challengers have chosen to compete head-to-head with Apple
and Google, rather than disrupt them.
Ecosystem economics clearly act in favour of the dominant players, and
with Android and iOS literally dominating consumer and developer
mindshare, challengers that aim to change the status quo are competing
against the odds. Understanding ecosystem economics means
understanding whether and how the new entrants can challenge the
duopoly.
Android and iOS have grown on the back of strong network effects, whereby
they grow stronger with each user and developer added to the ecosystem.
Users drive demand for apps and hence developers. Developers and apps
drive user adoption.
Network effects take place not just between users and developers, but also
between all four sides of app ecosystems, including handset manufacturers,
and network operators. The next chart shows the network effects at play
within the iOS ecosystem, and the value added and captured, by each side.
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The iOS ecosystem drives the core business of Apple: device sales
Source: VisionMobile | http://visionmobile.com/M2M | June 2013

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License
The Android-iOS duopoly is still holding strong with no sign that it can be
challenged in the foreseeable future. Once network effects have kicked in
and scale has been achieved, it is almost impossible for contenders to
compete directly and displace the leaders. Beyond network effects, the
incumbents have established developer habits, user stored value into the
apps themselves, external subsidies in the form of developer time & effort,
and abundant telco support.
Any challenger to the Android-iOS duopoly therefore faces an uphill
struggle and, as mentioned earlier competes against the odds. Markets
dominated by network effects are what we call Black Oceans. Whereas
Blue Oceans exhibit no competition, Red Oceans are shark-infested, Black
Oceans make it near-impossible to compete. Even Microsoft with an
estimated over 5 billion dollars invested in Windows Phone has managed to
secure a tiny 3% smartphones sales share in 2.5 years since the platform
launched.
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Asymmetric competition
Instead of competing directly with the Apple/Google duopoly, a far more
effective strategy is to follow the recipe that brought down the pre-iPhone
industry and installed iOS and Android at the top of the app economy: not
direct, but asymmetric competition. It will take a fundamental change
in the basis of competition to uproot either of these platforms
from their positions.
This strategy requires contenders to compete not directly, but challenge the
control points of modern ecosystems: app development, distribution and
consumption of apps. This is exactly the strategy followed by Amazon and
Facebook, and inadvertently by some HTML5 proponents.
Three platform control points to stimulate network effects
Source: VisionMobile | http://visionmobile.com/M2M | June 2013

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License
Facebook for example competes with iOS/Android by diluting the

ecosystem control points rather than head-on. Facebook offers App Center,
an alternative to the native app marketplaces for distributing apps, and
Facebook Home, an alternative to app stores for consuming apps. In turn,
Amazon offers its own App Store for distributing and consuming Android
apps on Kindle devices, which is bundled on certain handsets or carriers,
including Verizon Droid devices.
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Challenging the odds

Mozilla, along with several carrier partners, have launched Firefox OS, a
browser-based mobile platform. Mozilla is taking HTML5 from a set of
specs and APIs into a fully-fledged ecosystem, including an app store,
monetisation and handset maker deals with Alcatel and ZTE.
Our Developer Economics Q3 2013 data indicates that HTML5 has almost
equal mindshare to Android and iOS among mobile developers and is
leveraged heavily by enterprise IT staff mobilising corporate assets. Mozilla
is also using its browser installed base to increase brand awareness of
Firefox OS towards desktop users. The browser company is also a thought
leader amongst the millions of web developers out there. Despite these
assets, we argue that Mozilla should spread its bets, not just by competing
head-on, but also on diluting the iOS and Android control points - for
example by helping web developers create good-as-native, browser-less
apps on any platform, and integrating native app search within its desktop
browser search.
Microsoft has played the synergy card, aiming to bridge and cross-sell
Windows Phone and Windows 8 products to both developers and users.
Nevertheless it is currently struggling on both fronts: Windows Phone is not
even close to the point of being considered a challenger for iOS or Android,
but, perhaps more worryingly for Microsoft, Windows 8 has been having a
difficult time spurring the update cycle on the desktop/notebook front.
Right now, Microsofts mobile strategy appears dispersed across
smartphones, tablets and notebooks that look like tablets.
Microsoft needs to solve a fundamental challenge: that its software
licensing business model is outdated in the post-Android age, in that
handset manufacturers are unwilling to pay software royalties for licensing
the operating system. Right now, Microsofts mobile division
appears to be more successful as a patent licensing business,
than a software licensing business.
BlackBerry 10 has finally appeared on the market and judging by our data
on developers reactions the company has managed to shift mobile
developer mindshare from the legacy platform to BB10. BlackBerry have
reduced barriers to entry for developers by providing a straightforward
porting facility for Android apps to BlackBerry 10. Webworks also provides
a hybrid native/HTML5 path for web developers allowing access to
hardware APIs and UI elements on BlackBerry 10.
While developer barriers to entry are quite low, consumers have not yet
adopted the new platform as BB10 handset sales in Q1 2013 reached 2.7
million handsets, well below the expected 3.3 million. BlackBerry
Messaging is giving way to WhatsApp as BB users favourite messaging
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platform. The entire BYOD (bring-your-own-device) megatrend is

essentially about migrating enterprise users away from CIO-sanctioned
BlackBerry devices. BlackBerry has performed extremely well in
terms of developer mindshare, but its user mindshare is
underperforming, and both are needed to sustain the
ecosystems network effects.
Samsungs bada platform was designed as a negotiating card against Google
- as an alternative Samsung could use to offset the power of Google on its
handset features and software. With Samsung becoming the Android
kingmaker, the tables are now reversed and a negotiating card is no longer
needed. Instead, Samsungs new platform Tizen is an effort not just to
break its reliance on Android, but more importantly to copy the Apple
recipe, in the form of a fully-controlled platform. Samsungs challenge is to
modernise a legacy Tizen OS (based on the older SLP platform, with
fragments of Maemo and LiMo software) and to convince developers to
back yet another app ecosystem. It also needs to revamp the language the
company speaks with developers,, from the legacy mobile industry language
still reminiscent of the Android launch era of 2008 (Tizen is an open
source, standards-based software platform supported by leading mobile
operators, device manufacturers, and silicon suppliers)
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CHAPTER THREE
__________
Comments?
State of mobile developer:

Mindshare, Q3 2013
Has the platform landgrab ended? Well, Android and iOS maintain their
Mobile Developer Mindshare since our last survey published in Q1 2013.
Our latest research of 6,000+ mobile developers shows Android leading at
71% of developers using the platform, followed by iOS at 56%. HTML5 has
entrenched itself as a mobile development technology of choice,
with 52% of the developer population using HTML5 technologies
for developing mobile apps. The Mindshare chart shows the % of
developers using each platform out of the total mobile developer
population.
We still stop short of calling this a triopoly though, for two good reasons.
Firstly, HTML5 is a technology stack, not a full ecosystem like Firefox OS.
Secondly, most HTML5 mobile developers are targeting the browser, with a
minority targeting iOS/Android app stores through PhoneGap, so in any
case end up hitting the same iOS and Android devices which form the vast
majority of smartphones sold.
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Meanwhile Windows Phone has - for the third time running - failed to
capitalise on the huge interest that developers have shown in the platform,
remaining in fourth place, significantly behind the incumbents. Despite
extensive marketing efforts, slightly increased sales of Windows
Phone devices and generous developer programs, Microsoft is
still struggling to convince developers that its platform can
compete head-to-head with Android or iOS, since the platform
lacks in user reach, which is the most motivator for developers to
invest in a platform. To adopt a new platform, developers need to
consider not just the learning curve of Windows Phone, but also the
opportunity cost of scaling down on iOS or Android. Where these costs are
softened is the case of Windows 8, which can attract traditional developers
who havent yet made the transition to mobile and are already familiar with
the Windows toolset. Still, user reach remains a fundamental platform
adoption reason, and in 2013, the tables are clearly skewed towards
Android and iOS.
BlackBerry has managed to retain Mobile Developer Mindshare,
with the new BlackBerry 10 platform having almost the same
mindshare as the legacy BlackBerry 5/6/7 had just before the
release of BB10 six months ago. While it lags behind WP in terms of
Mobile Developer Mindshare, BB10 does pose a viable threat to Windows
Phone as it has managed to amass a sizable following in just a few months
following its initial launch. This makes BB10 one of the most successful
operations of transitioning developers across platforms.
Beyond BlackBerry 10, the decline of older generation platforms such as
JavaME, Flash/AIR and Symbian continues, as the platforms are being
phased out, with the device sales base declining with the Developer
Mindshare. These platforms have now become case studies of the demise of
once thriving ecosystems of the pre- app store era.
Samsungs bada experiment is coming to an end, having failed to
gather Developer Mindshare despite a promising user reach, that
saw higher sales than Windows Phone in 2011 and most of 2012.
In retrospect, badas performance is exactly the opposite that of BB10:
where BB10 thrives in developer mindshare, it suffers in device shipments
(the equivalent of user mindshare).
The case of bada is also an interesting example of the network
effects that dominate app ecosystems: user adoption does not
suffice in the new app economy. The positive feedback loop must
include developers who benefit from an increased user base. If developers
are left out of the loop, the necessary network effects will not kick-in and
the platform will fail to grow. Samsungs and Intels attempt at a homegrown platform, Tizen has some early developer adopters but with no
devices in the market it is too early to risk predictions.
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Developer Intentshare
The Q3 2013 Mobile Developer Intentshare data shows a few new kids that
have appeared on the block.
The strong interest in Windows Phone observed in past surveys

is still there (35% of developers planning to adopt WP) but has
subsided considerably since November 2012 (47%) as new
contenders BlackBerry 10 and Firefox OS are capturing
developer attention, with over a quarter of developers expressing their
interest in each of the latter platforms. Microsofts inability to convert
Windows Phone interest into adoption is due to lack of commercial traction
(the equivalent of user mindshare), with Windows Phone sales accounting
for just 3% of smartphone sales in Q1 2013.
BlackBerry has been successful in transitioning BB legacy
developers over to its new BB10 platform, and creating the thirdhighest Mobile Developer Intentshare after Windows 8 and
Windows Phone at 28% of all developers planning to adopt a new
platform. The real challenge for BlackBerry now is not to transition, but to
recruit new developers, as Firefox OS and Windows 8 are gaining
momentum and competing for Developer Mindshare. The ease of porting
Android apps to BlackBerry will lower barriers for developers that want to
experiment with BlackBerry, but the companys biggest developer relations
headache will be Microsofts sizable developer marketing budgets for
Windows 8.
23
Mozilla, has provided the missing web platform: until now web technology
lacked the ingredients that would turn a technology solution into a
platform: as a single API set and development environment, and a means to
distribute, monetise and discover web apps. With HTML5 already being
used by more than half of mobile developers, the prospects for Firefox OS
are looking good and there is a very healthy level of interest in the platform.
Our data shows that 27% of developers are planning to adopt
Firefox OS, out of those that plan to adopt any platform. In terms
of Mobile Developer Intentshare, this puts Firefox OS just ahead
of iOS and Android.
In just a short space of time, Firefox OS has managed to amass a
respectable Developer Intentshare, even before devices hit the market, and
while competing for Windows Phone, Windows 8 and BlackBerry 10 all of
which are much older platforms, with devices in market and billions of
market dollars behind them. The insight here is that early adopters are
driven by the promise of HTML5 openness and cross-platform capabilities.
Yet Mozilla needs to deliver on its promise. Much like BlackBerry, Mozilla
must deliver value to both developers and users to succeed where Microsoft
has so far failed. Getting right one part of this equation (e.g. just
developers) will clearly not suffice. And profitability for smartphone makers
has little to do with using Firefox OS or Android.
Tizen exhibits some level of developer interest but without any devices in
the market it is too early to say whether this will materialise beyond
developer hype. Tizens HTML5 pedigree is aiming at attracting web
developers and its open-source, standards-based software platform is
aimed at softening the dependence on Samsung.
While several platforms currently appear as distant challengers
to the Android-iOS duopoly, the economics of app ecosystems
are such that any position below the top is unsustainable. The
governing network effects favour the growth of the first comer
platforms while inhibiting the growth of laggards.
Platform owners do not only face the challenge of recruiting developers, but
also convincing users that iDevices and Androids are not their only option.
This is much easier to achieve in developing markets where Apple is weaker
(such as in Africa) or where, for example, BlackBerry is stronger (such as in
South America). Indeed, there are significant differences in platform
adoption across regional markets. This is due to different demographics or
regional influence that vendors have achieved by focusing on specific
markets.
24
Clearly, the leaders (Android and iOS) as well as HTML5 dominate every
regional market. At the same time, we see that there is significant variance
in the level of regional Developer Mindshare: iOS commands a 62%
Mindshare in North America but only 48% in Asia and 33% in Africa. And
Windows Phone is stronger in Asia than in North America.
Regional Developer Mindshare is of course tied to regional device sales.
Developers will adopt platforms depending on their strength in their
market. While developers are not bound by regional markets, i.e. they can
sell apps globally, the majority of developers will target local markets, as we
saw in Developer Economics 2012.
25
CHAPTER FOUR
__________
Comments?
Choices, choices, choices. Which

platform is right?
The Apple/Google duopoly is the safe choice. It commands a phenomenal
Mobile Developer Mindshare, with 86% of mobile app developers using
either iOS or Android as evidenced by our recent survey of 6,000
developers - and a staggering 42% of developers using both platforms.
These numbers are no less phenomenal than the combined market share of
iOS and Android handset sales, which reached 92% of all smartphones in
Q1 2013.
But what about developers venturing beyond the duopoly waters? Choices
like HTML5, Windows Phone, or the newer Windows 8, BlackBerry 10,
Firefox OS, and the upcoming Tizen, Ubuntu and Jolla. Which platform is
right? Or better: which platform is right for *me*?
Our latest research shows that developers platform choices
depend very much on the goal they aim to achieve. When it
comes to platform selection, contract developers will opt for
platforms that will generate more revenue, CIOs will focus on
efficiency and low cost, CMOs will focus on reach, while
hobbyists will want to experiment with newer platforms. For an
analysis of the hierarchy of developer motivations see our Developer
Segmentation Q3 2013 report.
Rather than asking which is the best platform, we asked something more
meaningful. That is: which platform is right for me? The next chart analyses
the choices developers make most often (and least often), when they chose
a platform for a specific reason. Pick what platform aspect is most
important for you, and then see which platform other developers selected
most often, according to our survey of 6,000+ mobile app developers.
26
Our research shows that iOS is selected more frequently than

average by developers that value revenue potential (+12%),
graphics (+7%), app discovery (+8%) and user reach (+10%).
However, it is selected much less frequently by developers that value nearly
every other quality, and in particular open standards (-24%), community
programs (-21%) but also portability (-9%) and choice of development
environment (-8%).
Android is selected as a primary platform more frequently by developers
that value open standards (+16%) but lags when it comes to app discovery
(-4%).
Developers tend to use HTML5 more frequently as their primary
platform when they value porting (+9%) and speed & cost of
development (+4%) but less if they value rich APIs (-6%) or
graphics capabilities (-6%). Finally, BlackBerry 10 is used more
frequently than average as a primary platform by developers valuing
developer community programmes (+16%). And Windows Phone is most
popular for developers looking for the right development environment
(+3%) and documentation (+2%).
For developers deciding which platform to invest in, the earlier chart offers
some peer advice. Do I need deep access to device APIs for the type of apps
I will develop? Am I looking to experiment? Do I need a marketing edge in
less crowded platforms? Is reach more important than money? The same
chart will help the platform vendors themselves understand how they score
27
against the competition in each of these attributes and the areas they need
to improve to remain competitive.
Overall, three platform selection criteria dominate: revenue potential, user
reach and speed & cost of development. The next chart shows which are the
most important selection criteria for developers Android, iOS, HTML5
mobile, Windows Phone or BlackBerry 10 are their main platform.
Speed and cost of development is a dominant selection reason
for all developers except those that mainly develop for iOS, who
value revenue potential above all (+12% above average). This sets
iOS apart from the other four platforms that seem to offer little
differentiation among them in this respect. Of course, revenue
potential is not an all-or-nothing attribute. But having a clear
advantage in one area makes platform selection a lot simpler.
28
CHAPTER FIVE
The Multi-Platform Developer: Its

all about priorities
Despite the candid efforts of Apple and Google, todays developers are not
wedded to any single platform.
Whether hobbyists or IT managers of Fortune-500 companies,
developers use 2.9 mobile platforms concurrently, according to
our recent survey of 6,000+ mobile developers. This is the first
time we are observing a shift towards diversification, with our
earlier 2011-2012 research pointing towards platform
consolidation: on average mobile developers used 3.2 mobile
platforms in our 2011 survey, compared to 2.7 in 2012 and 2.6 in
our Q1 2013 research.
The new entrants of Windows 8, BlackBerry OS are capturing not just
developer hope and hype, but actual investment of developer time, money
and effort. And there are good reasons. More platforms allow developers to
increase reach, diversify revenue opportunities, spread their risk, and cater
to new requests for commissioned app development work.
Platform discrimination
At 2.9 concurrent platforms on average, todays developer is
multi-platform. In this world, not all platforms are equally
important to a developer. Platform discrimination is abundant.
Developers platform prioritisation will follow their selection criteria,
whether it is revenue, reach, cost, speed, discovery or dev environment that
they are after. Beyond the lead platform, our data shows that developers are
making conscious decisions to down-prioritise platforms to second, third or
even fourth place.
The lead platform is where new apps and features are first rolled out and
which is always the star of the marketing launch. Prioritisation will also
have an impact on focus, app quality, sales and revenue. As such, the way
developers prioritise the platforms has a direct impact on the overall
perception of the platform. Consider that if most developers treat a
platform as a second-class citizen, this will reflect negatively on the app
quality and consequently, on developers revenue opportunity on that
platform. Developers that prioritise a platform will act as evangelists for
that platform, as they re likely to create the highest-quality, most up-todate apps and speak out for the platform at events or social media.
29
Our data shows that 84% of mobile developers are using iOS, Android or
HTML5 (mobile) as their primary platform, as the next chart shows.
Android and iOS are the dominant primary platforms, preferred by 34.4%
and 32.7% of mobile developers respectively, while HTML5 is the priority
platform for 17.3% of mobile developers.
Naturally platform priorities are not one-size-fits-all. We see very clear

trends emerging in developers prioritisation of iOS vs Android, based on
audience targeted, developer experience, and app category.
The audience targeted (B2C vs B2B apps) has a significant impact on the
primary platform selected. Looking at the consumer vs. enterprise app
market, we observe that while iOS and Android are equally important to
developers in the consumer segment, developers targeting enterprises have
a stronger preference towards iOS. Moreover, HTML5 is the platform of
choice for a quarter of all developers targeting enterprise customers.
Platform priorities also depend on the level of experience.
Developers who are fresh to mobile have a much stronger
preference towards Android, with almost twice as many new
mobile developers preferring Android (40%) than iOS (21%). This
is most likely related to the steeper learning curve and higher barriers to
entry for iOS, such as ownership of a Mac development machine and the
$99 developer fee. More experienced developers tend to adopt iOS as their
main platform: 44% of developers with three to five years of experience will
use iOS as their main platform vs. 31% that select Android.
30
Platform priorities are also influenced by the category of apps developed:

Games developers have a slight preference towards iOS as their primary
platform (37% vs. 35% for Android), while developers of music & video apps
have a preference towards Android over iOS (36% vs 29%).
"From a business standpoint, there's a lot

of education needed for the acceptance of
HTML 5. There's a gap between what we
developers can provide and what the
client thinks we can provide."
Ciprian Borodescu, CEO, Webcrumbz
More importantly, platform priorities depend heavily on the developer

motivations, according to VisionMobiles Developer Segmentation Q3 2013
report. Guns for Hire and Hunters who are motivated by app revenues most
often prefer iOS. BlackBerry 10 and Windows Phone are frequent favourites
for Hobbyists and Explorers who are experimenting and care about
learning and having fun. Finally, Android is a most popular choice for all
other segments - Enterprise IT, Product Extenders, Digital Content
31
Publishers and Gold Seekers - who are motivated by extending a nonmobile business with apps.
"Content is king develop apps but

deliver content."
Jaime Enriquez, CEO, Inode
The real measure of developer loyalty

To understand the true picture of the multi-developer world, look not at
how many SDKs are downloaded per day, monthly active uniques on
developer websites, attendees at developer conferences, or how many
billions spent in developer marketing. Instead, to understand the true
picture of todays multi-platform landscape, look at where developers are
putting their effort, time and money.
In the words of Andy Grove, former Intel CEO:
To understand a companys strategy, look at what they actually do rather
than what they say they will do.
Developers strategy is set by the hundreds of everyday decisions about
where developers spend their effort, time and money. To unveil how
developers are really using the top-5 platforms we look at developer
platform priorities.
The picture on the next chart shows a strong lead of iOS over Android with
49.4% vs 59% of platform developers preferring it as their main platform.
Whereas Android has 4x times more devices shipping and a significant lead
in Mobile Developer Mindshare, it lags behind iOS in terms of Android
developers using it as their lead platform. This has fundamental
implications in the feature, quality and marketing, and revenue
delta that these developers will prioritise on iOS, and the
resulting better experience for iOS users.
The picture of the duopoly becomes rock solid when one looks at lead
platforms share. Within iOS/Android, the lead platform share is an average
of 54%, dropping to down to almost half (27.5%) for the next three
platforms, HTML5 mobile, Windows Phone and BlackBerry 10.
Lead platform share adds a lot of colour behind the dull total
number of apps numbers that permeate the blogosphere. It
explains why Android and mostly iOS app store stickers are the first to
32
appear for new startups advertising their app on a website, a billboard or a

taxi. It explains why feature updates appear first on these platforms, for
most apps. It explains why so many Windows Phone apps lack the design
edge and attention to detail. It explains why most HTML5 apps are an
extension rather than a starting point for a brands experience.
Platform vendors should set see lead platform share figures as key
performance indicators and benchmarks of their developer relations teams
- there is no better testament to developer loyalty than to having set a
platform as their lead priority.
Beyond the duopoly, lead platform share drops dramatically. 28% of

BlackBerry users prioritise BlackBerry 10 as their main development
platform vs. 22% for Windows Phone. Looking at developers who use
BlackBerry as a first or second priority, it is evident that BB10 developers
are far more loyal, on average, than Windows Phone developers. For
BlackBerry 10 this is an advantage that can outweigh its Developer
Mindshare deficit vs. Windows Phone since BB10 developers will focus
their attention on the platform, producing higher quality apps there first.
33
CHAPTER SIX
How developers mix and match

mobile platforms
We used to same data from our survey of 6,000+ app developers to see the
multi-platform world from a different angle. We know that 78% of
developers use at least one secondary platform concurrently with their
primary one. We then asked: which platform do iOS, Android, WP, BB10
and HTML5 (mobile) developers use as a second preference? The next chart
shows a very telling picture of how developers mix and match mobile
platforms.
We knew that Android would be the most popular second choice for iOS
developers - which the data confirms as 69% of iOS developers use Android.
The picture is different for Android developers, who use iOS as a second
platform (40%), just ahead of HTML5 mobile (29%).
BlackBerry 10 developers show very low preference for iOS (7%), but much
higher for HTML5 (30%) and Android (23%), which is sensible given that
BB10 supports both HTML5 and Android apps, offering cross-platform
synergies. We also observe a preference for Android developers towards
34
BlackBerry 10 as a secondary platform by developers who mainly use

Android as they can, in many cases, easily port their apps across to
BlackBerry 10.
Windows Phone developers are in their vast majority (58%) using Windows
8 as their secondary platform with only Android as a distant second (18%).
As far as HTML5 mobile developers are concerned, they prefer Android
(32%) or iOS (39%) as secondary platforms, since they can develop hybrid
apps and sell them via native app stores, thus leveraging the monetisation
and reach advantage that both these platforms provide against others.
The economics of apps make it extremely difficult for challenger platforms
to compete against the duopoly, which has well established network effects
working in its favour. Asking a developer to switch to a different platform is
like asking someone to learn a foreign language - its a task that takes
months if not years of disciplined effort to master. And its not just
about the language (Objective C, Java, HTML or JavaScript)
itself. Its the set of APIs, development environment, publishing
process, and the 3rd party tools ecosystem that supports the
platform.
"Learning a language nowadays is not

very hard, they all look the same
(literally). Really what you have to learn is
the API."
Jean-Jacques Dubray, Founder, Convergence
Modeling
The earlier chart shows how developers preference on mixing and

matching platforms depends highly on the level of synergies that can be
achieved - whether it is easy porting across platforms (e.g. Android to BB10
or Windows Phone to Windows 8), or leveraging the same codebase (e.g.
HTML of JavaScript) to both hybrid (e.g. PhoneGap -based) and browserbased apps. This goes back to our earlier argument about asymmetric
competition: the easiest way to compete with the duopolists is not head-tohead, but by challenging their control points. Diluting the app creation
control point means exactly that: making it easy for developers to target a
much wider device base with the same development tools and APIs.
35
CHAPTER SEVEN
__________
Comments?
Developer attention in tablets

catching up with smartphones
Tablets are now everywhere. In living rooms, cars, meeting rooms and
airports. Tablet sales have grown dramatically from just three million units
sold in Q2 2010 with the iPad launch, to over 49 millions tablets sold in Q1
2013, with Android now dominating tablet sales.
Tablets sales are approaching a quarter of smartphone sales in Q1 2013.
Despite the sales gap, developers have embraced tablets almost as equal
citizens to smartphones. Our recent survey of 6,000+ app developers shows
that tablets are now being targeted by 70% of mobile developers,
representing a significant mindshare increase from 61% six months ago.
Tablets closely track smartphones with 93% of mobile developers targeting
smartphones.
Among Android developers, the share of developers that develop for tablets
has risen sharply to 71% from 64% in our January 2013 study, driven by the
proliferation of tablets both from tier-1 and white label manufacturers. The
most impressive rise is observed among developers using HTML5 mobile,
80% of whom now develop for tablets, up from 71% in January 2013.
36
Feature phone development remains on the same level (18% of mobile

developers) as that observed in January 2013, with 18% of mobile
developers working on feature phone apps. The huge installed base - over
three billion units - still represents a sizeable addressable market for
developers in emerging markets dominated by low-end handsets. The data
also reveals a fair amount of interest in developer investment into feature
phone apps in order to reach markets where smartphones are slow to
penetrate.
Development for TVs and set top boxes has slightly subsided since our Q1
2013 report from 6% to 4% of mobile developers, as a result of developer
disillusionment from TV apps, an area which has yet to deliver consumer
adoption in large numbers. Interestingly, TV apps remains one of top two
screens to watch on the mobile developers radar, following tablet apps.
37
CHAPTER EIGHT
Developer revenue models: a box of

chocolates
Not all developers care about making money - some are experimenting,
having fun, learning and others are extending a products brand reach. But
those who do care about making money, have a bewildering array of
revenue model choices to choose from.
An apps revenue model will depend on many developer considerations.
Which is the target market and how much will users spend on the app?
How are other successful apps in the same category making money? Should
I drop prices to attract traffic and monetise through in-app payments? Will
my app generate enough traffic to justify an ad-based revenue model? Can I
create premium content that I can monetise via subscriptions? Does my
target audience have a credit card on file to pay for app store purchases?
Are Android users less likely to pay for downloading an app than Apple
users?
Our research of 6,000+ mobile developers shows that there is no
single revenue model that is dominant across all platforms. as
the next chart shows. Developers will often use different revenue
models on each platform. For example Angry Birds and WhatsApp
messenger are paid apps in the Apple app store while they are free on
Google Play.
On Windows Phone, developers have a strong preference towards in-app
advertising (43%) and pay-per download (40%) and relatively low usage of
in-app purchases or freemium. BlackBerry 10 developers have a strong
preference towards pay-per download (47%). The picture is much more
balanced on Android, iOS and HTML5, with no revenue model dominating
to the extent observed on Windows Phone or BlackBerry 10.
In Enterprises, mobility is often implemented

bottom-up; budgets are distributed across the
organisation, meaning lots of replication, and
myopic views within individual business units
on what mobile means. There is often no
unified mobile strategy.
Vivek Gupta, Director of Product Management,
AnyPresence
38
Contract work is more popular among iOS and HTML5 developers (29% of
iOS and HTML5 developers) than on other platforms, reflecting the
popularity of these platforms among clients outsourcing app development.
Overall, among developers that develop commissioned apps,
40% use iOS as their primary platform, while 30% use Android
and 20% use HTML5. As the next chart shows, for developers looking for
contract work globally, iOS, Android and HTML are the platforms they
should be focusing on, in that order.
39
At $5,200 per developer per month on average, iOS continues to

be the most revenue-generating platform for developers, and
ahead of Android developer monthly revenues by a margin of
10%. The next chart reveals monthly developer revenue, by primary
platform, including revenues beyond app store revenues such as contract
development, advertising, e-commerce sales and licensing fees. The gap
between iOS and Android, when considering app-store only revenues is
likely to be larger.
40
HTML5 mobile developer revenues are mainly associated with contractbased development and advertising due to the absence of an established
app-store. At the same time, as we shall see, just over one of four HTML5
mobile developers will package their apps as hybrid apps (based on
PhoneGap / Cordova) which are open to app store revenues. HTML5
mobile developers also show a large disparity between haves and havenots. This is because HTML5 as a platform used both by companies
extending a brand onto mobile and by Fortune-500 IT managers, looking to
mobilise existing web assets, on very sizable development budgets.
Finally, BlackBerry 10, being a new platform, is unsurprisingly lagging
behind other platforms in terms of developer revenues, as the platform is
first being picked up by Hobbyists and Explorer developer segments, who
are looking to learn and improve rather than to build a business. For an
analysis of developer motivations and monetisation by segment, see our
Developer Segmentation Q3 2013 report.
41
CHAPTER NINE
Developer tools: crossing the

frontier of platform innovation
Todays app economy has created jobs and hobbies for over 500,000 app
developers globally, using a multitude of platforms. In the early years
(2008-2010) of the app economy, all of the tools needed by developers to
develop and distribute apps were provided by the platforms themselves.
After all, in those early days, all you needed was a development
environment, a set of APIs to code against, a marketplace to distribute your
apps through, and a way for tracking app sales. In recent years however, the
number of apps has multiplied to nearly 1 million apps for each of iOS and
Android, and a development environment and app store just wont cut it.
The bar for app quality has increased, and the app discovery bottleneck has
been continually shrinking.
To support those 500,000+ mobile developers to innovate and
stand out in the market, a new SDK economy has emerged. A
storm of over 500 SDK startups and Enterprise IT incumbents, have
emerged, starting in 2009, to help developers in everything from app
prototyping and debugging, to user analytics, planning tools, and customer
support. These days developers can choose from a gazillion tools to scale
their development across multiple platforms, monetize their apps, test,
monitor app performance, manage security, study user behaviour, crosspromote apps to attract & engage users, and manage API use and simplify
use of cloud services. Our DeveloperEconomics.com website tracks over 20
developer tools categories, and over 500 vendors.
"The productivity gains from using

external tools and services far outweigh
the costs, which are negligible compared
to the salary of good developers."
Startup CEO, Sweden
The data from our last two mobile developer surveys consistently
show that developer tools are not just nice-to-have. Tools are in
the must-have app development arsenal of the most
sophisticated developers, and also those making most revenues.
In fact, only 14% of all mobile developers in our recent research
dont use any tool.
42
So which are the most popular tools and why? The next chart shows the
breakdown of developer tools popularity, by sector, from our recent survey
of 6,000+ mobile developers.
User analytics tools such as Flurry, Google Analytics and Appsalar, are by
far the most popular among developer tools and services, used by 38% of
developers in our sample. User analytics tools are essential in helping
developers understand how are users behaving within their application, and
using that to improve downloads and revenues through marketing
campaigns.
"The biggest bottleneck in cross-platform

tools is performance issues and delay in
exposing the latest native APIs. But for
most applications this is something you
can live with."
Leo Palacios, Engineering Director, Dextra
Technologies
The next most popular tools category is cross-platform tools (CPTs), such as
PhoneGap, Sencha, Xamarin, Appcelerator and RunRev, used by 29% of all
43
mobile developers. CPTs are essential in reducing cost when scaling up

support of multiple platforms, and usually optimised for either enterprise
IT, games or web developers.
Its interesting to note that the backend-as-a-service tool category is
oversupplied by 48 BaaS vendors, but under-demanded, with only 11% of
mobile developers using such a service.
BaaS is really hard to justify the value of.

It has value in terms of efficiency gains
rather than revenue gains. An enterprise
would pay 20x to drive revenues but only
2x times to drive cost efficiencies.
David Reisfeld, CTO, Exceda
At the other end of the popularity spectrum we find cross-promotion

networks (8%) and voice services (6%). Cross-promotion networks like
TapJoy and Chartboost has raised a lot of controversy and has been
targeted by Apple in the past couple of years due to the artificial inflation of
app rankings it may create. Voice services are currently employed by a small
number of developers despite the fact that they can add edge to an
application with features like speech recognition, voice search, voice calls
and texting.
Tools, a hygiene factor for mobile platforms

Across the tools spectrum, iOS developers are the most active
and sophisticated users, with 92.5% reporting that they use at
least one tool. With the exception of cross-platform tools and ad
networks, iOS shows the highest usage in each tool category, as shown in
the next graph. Ad networks are the most popular tools/services among
Windows Phone developers, in agreement with the popularity of advertising
as a revenue model on this platform.
For newer platforms like BlackBerry 10, the tool usage level drops to 71%,
indicating both the Hobbyist and Explorer early adopter crowd of BB10, but
also the early days in developer tools support for the new platform. At the
same time, BB10 developers show the most appetite for tools, particularly
user analytics and push notifications, which tools vendors should take
notice.
44
"It doesn't make sense for a startup to do

native development for multiple
platforms, both in terms of time and
money."
George Spyrou, Founder, Plusapps LLC
In todays hyper-competitive app economy, developers cant

innovate without a supporting 3rd party tool ecosystem. In this
economy, iOS developers have a clear advantage as being most
advanced in tool use, and therefore having the infrastructure to
innovate and differentiate. The better tools at the developers disposal,
the more competitive that developer is.
For newer platform vendors like BB10, Firefox OS and Tizen, a
SDK economy around their platform, is not just a competitive
advantage, but a fundamental hygiene factor. SDK vendors are a
necessary component of a successful ecosystem. Lack of critical
SDKs can even become a reason for developers to churn from a platform.
This was the case with PhoneGap, which delayed PayPal API support,
following PayPal API changes, and pushed some developers to abandon
PhoneGap so as to not lose revenues.
45
Tools are for pros, not rookies

The best testament to the importance of the SDK economy,
comes from the fact that the more experienced a developer is, the
more likely they are to use third party tools. One could be excused
for thinking that developer tools are for rookies, since experienced
developers prefer to do things their way. Our data shows the exact
opposite picture, as shown in the next chart. The more experienced the
developer, the higher the usage of developer tools, and in an almost linear
way. Experienced developers are much more serious about understanding
users, reducing multi-platform costs, monetising from ads and fixing postlaunch crashes. An interesting exception is the consistent decline in the use
of BaaS, crash reporting and push notifications tools among developers
with 10+ years of experience, as these veteran developers often opt for inhouse solutions for integration with legacy databases or internal
infrastructure.
46
The common challenge for developers is the tool discovery bottleneck.

There is far too much noise in the developer tools space. Developers are
often at a loss when required to select a tool for a particular job either
because they dont know any tools or because they do not know how to go
about selecting a tool, i.e. what are the right questions to ask. Which is why
experienced developers will have a better visibility of the tools market,
knowing which tools are right for the job. Our DeveloperEconomics.com
portal tracks 500+ tool vendors across 20+ categories, and helps developers
exactly in knowing what tools are available for the job.
With over 500 developer tools companies, both incumbents and startups, it
would be natural to think that the developer tools space is congested. Yet,
with developers pushing the boundaries of apps, someone needs to address
developer needs popping across the spectrum. One such need is for tools to
help developers connect with, and support, users during the app usage
phase. As notes George Karavias, Founder of education apps startup
Anlock, Users are not so willing to give feedback nowadays. Even if they
47
want to contribute, they expect to see their suggestion implemented

immediately, which is impossible - so theyre demotivated. Solving the
customer support bottleneck for app developers is an area where we expect
to see substantial tools innovation.
48
CHAPTER TEN
The kaleidoscope of HTML5 app

development
HTML5 is a technology that stands to rival the duopoly of the app economy.
In terms of Mobile Developer Mindshare, 52% of developers are using
HTML5 in some form, closely behind Android (57%) and iOS (72%)
developers, according to our Q3 study of 6,000+ mobile app developers.
Once we double click on that 52% of HTML5 mobile mindshare, a
kaleidoscope of colour and options appears behind the five short
letters of HTML5. Some developers will build responsive websites that
scale down gracefully when viewed on smartphones and tablets. Others will
develop fully fledged web-apps that work offline and are smart enough to
adapt to the users location. Others will combine HTML5 elements with
native APIs within a wrapper such as PhoneGap, or Icenium and which
can then be sold via app stores. Others will leverage native platform support
for JavaScript APIs available through BlackBerry WebWorks, Firefox
OS and Windows 8. And others will use cross platform tools which take
JavaScript and convert it to a native app such as Appcelerator for
enterprise IT use, or Ludei and Ejecta for gaming apps. Last but not least,
we have seen cases of HTML5 being used by app building tools as an
interim language, so that it can be rendered across multiple devices with
ease.
"We thought of developing our own

HTML5 framework because we didn't
want to be limited by the Sencha Touch or
jQuery mobile capabilities, for example
when they will support new platforms
such as Firefox OS. But we postponed as it
requires a major investment."
Ciprian Borodescu, CEO, Webcrumbz
The next table analyses the many approaches to HTML5 mobile

development, including routes to market and examples of tools used.
49
Approaches to mobile development using HTML5

HTML5 usage
Description
Distribution
Built using (examples)
Mobile websites
Websites that are designed to be

rendered on small screens, incl.
responsive websites
Web
Wordpress
Mobile web apps
Websites with offline storage and

deeper browser integration
Web
BackBone.js, JQuery Mobile
Hybrid apps (using native

wrapper)
HTML code wrapped in a chromeless browser, within a native shell.
Native app-store
PhoneGap, Marmalade,
AppMobi, Icenium,
Trigger.io
Apps using native JavaScript

API
Platforms exposing software and

hardware services through a
JavaScript API
Native app-store
BlackBerry Webworks,
Firefox OS, Windows 8,
Tizen
HTML5/JavaScript apps
converted to native
Tools which take JavaScript and

convert it to a native app
Native app-store
Appcelerator (generic).
Ludei, Ejecta (gaming)
Amidst this kaleidoscope of approaches to HTML5 mobile development we

asked: which developer tools and approaches are used most often? Based
on our recent survey of 6,000+ mobile app developers, we found
that the largest share (38%) of HTML5 developers develop
mobile websites with another 23% developing mobile apps, i.e.
incorporating offline functionality and deeper browser
integration. Hybrid apps, such as those produced by PhoneGap
account for 27% of HTML5 mobile developers. A minority of 7% of
HTML5 mobile developers use platforms exposing native APIs via
JavaScript, such as Firefox OS and BlackBerry 10. Last but not least, 5% of
HTML5 mobile developers use a Javascript-to-native converter tool like
Appcelerator.
50
In a future Q3 2013 report we ll be looking in detail at the HTML5

approaches to market, and what are the revenues, tools, and challenges for
each.
"We use HTML5 a little but it doesnt give

the high end graphical experience we
want. We use only use HTML5 for apps
with low interactivity."
Jeff Bacon, Mobile Director, Fuel Industries
51
CHAPTER ELEVEN
__________
More data?
Understanding the complex mosaic

of developer personas
Forward-thinking businesses today realise that developers are their
innovation engine, their most promising affiliates, their evangelists or their
fastest growing resellers. Businesses are discovering that developers are
modern-day channels that help them reach new consumers, discover new
use cases and propel their growth.
The millions of dollars in developer marketing efforts serve one purpose: to
persuade developers to use a specific platform, network, tool or API set. Yet,
in 2013, mobile developer attention is becoming extremely scarce, and
dominated by the three leaders of developer marketing: Apple, Google and
Facebook. Competition for developer attention is intensifying month by
month, with players bombarding developers with promotions, organising
developer events and preaching the advantages of their APIs or toolsets.
The scarcity of developer attention has to do not just with skepticism to
marketing. Learning a new platform takes months. Learning a new SDK can
take weeks. Learning a new API can take days. Its a serious investment of
resources. As a result, developers take the decision to invest in a platform,
tool or API seriously.
Most business are resorting to traditional, textbook marketing techniques
to segment developers - by technology (web, Java, Windows, Android,
Apple), job function (coders, designers, architects, team leads, IT managers,
CxOs), by company size, app category (games vs enterprise developers), by
audience (B2C vs B2B) or by demographics (age, income, education or
location).
Yet all these segmentation models are bound to fail, as they
fundamentally neglect to address how developers make
investment decisions in a new platform, API or SDK. In other
words, its not age, job function, audience or technology background that
influences how a developer chooses between Apple, Google, Windows
Phone, BlackBerry or Tizen.
To understand the complex mosaic of developer personas we
segment developers in terms of their outcomes, or what
developers are trying to achieve. This is based on the Jobs to Be Done
methodology, popularized by Harvard Professor Clay Christensen and
which constitutes todays cutting edge in segmentation techniques. We have
backed this model with unprecedented statistical rigor and hard data, from
the largest-ever mobile developer survey of 6,000+ developers.
52
Building on our earlier Developer Economics 2012 research work, we

extracted hard data on thousands of developers in terms of their
aspirations, motivations, challenges and plans in app development. We
produced a unique model of eight developer segments - the Hobbyists, the
Explorers, the Hunters, the Guns for Hire, the Product Extenders, the
Digital Content Publishers, the Gold Seekers and the enterprise IT
developers.]
How do these eight segments and three clusters contribute to the app
economy? More importantly, when do these segments interact with
platforms?
We find that Explorers and Hobbyists, those seeking to learn,
have fun and self-improve, make up 33% of the mobile developer
population but only 13% of the app economy revenues. These
segments prefer - more than average - BlackBerry 10, Windows Phone as a
platform, as these are more often associated with experimentation and
learning.
The Hunters and Guns for Hire, those seeking revenues from the app
economy, make up 42% of the developer population and 48% of the app
economy revenues. These segments prefer - more than average - iOS as a
53
platform, due to the consistent revenue-generating opportunities of the

platform.
Product Extenders, Enterprise IT developers, Digital Content Publishers
and Gold Seekers, aiming at extending a business, make up 29% of the
developer population, and a whopping 39% of app economy revenues.
These segments prefer - more than average - Android and HTML5 as a
platform - due to the reach that these platforms offer across the entire
smartphone and feature phone installed base.
Our data also shows, that contrary to popular perception, money is not the
only motivator for mobile app developers - in fact, far from it. Revenues in some form or other - are the goal for only 50% of mobile
developers, which challenges the assumptions of developer
marketing programs that use money as the main developer
incentive.
The hierarchy of developer motivations on the next chart shows some
surprising findings. At the base of the pyramid, the majority (53%)
of mobile developers are motivated by creativity or the sense of
achievement, making this the most popular among motivators.
The fun of making an app, is a motivator for 40% of mobile developers which is important to many more developer segments than just Hobbyists
and Explorers.
54
Our Developer Segmentation Q3 2013 report drills deep into each of these
developer segments. We map developers in terms of their goals (what
they are trying to achieve), their success metrics (how they are trying to
achieve it) and more importantly the personal motivations behind their
choices (the why).
We further profile each segment across 5 dimensions: who and where they
are, which markets they target, what choices they make, how they make
money, what platforms they select and what challenges they face. These
unique insights into developer segments can provide a strong competitive
advantage for organisations for which developer outreach is a key element
of their strategy.
The Developer Segmentation report is available on our website:
www.developereconomics.com/Seg13
55
CHAPTER TWELVE
Sizing the app economy

__________
More data?
In the past few years the mobile industry has experienced a powerful
upheaval sparked by the launch of the first iPhone and the creation of the
first, true app ecosystem. This event brought about a gradual restructuring
of the mobile value chain and a steady shift in value from the traditional
pillars of the mobile economy, telco services and mobile handsets into app
ecosystems. This emerging component of the value chain is what we call the
mobile app economy and it represents the fastest growing area in the
mobile value chain today and will continue to do so in the foreseeable
future.
The value migration is profound as can be seen in the following graph. In
2012, the global app economy accounted for 18% of the combined
app services & handset market. We estimate that by 2016 the
contribution of the app economy will rise to 33% of the combined market,
equivalent to half of the handset market.
While several sources have estimated revenues generated via app-stores

and advertising, these estimates are missing the largest part of the app
economy. The contribution of app store sales to the total size of the app
56
economy is less than 20%, while the combined app store sales and
advertising market accounts for just over a quarter of revenues generated
via apps.
VisionMobile has developed a model for sizing the direct app economy, that
uses the large-scale, fine-grained dataset obtained via Developer Economics
surveys. This model incorporates not just revenues generated directly
through apps but economic activity generated via commissioned app
development, mobile app e-commerce as an app monetisation model (i.e.
not including e-commerce as core business), VC funding, services for app
developers and several other income sources directly related to mobile
apps.
The global app economy was worth $ 53Bn in 2012, and expected
to rise to $ 68Bn in 2013. It is growing at a 28% CAGR between
2012 and 2016, reaching $143 Bn in 2016. The bulk of this growth will
come from APAC and LatAm, the fastest growing markets in terms of
smartphone penetration.
We estimate the global mobile developer population in 2013 will reach

2.3M individuals with each organisation that is directly involved in the app
economy employing 4.5 developers on average, although this figure varies
significantly by region. The mobile segment corresponds to 12.6% of the
global developer population. In other words, 1 in 8 software developers is
involved in mobile development in 2013.
57
VisionMobiles App Economy Forecast 2013 - 2016 model combines results

from our Q3 2013 Developer Economics survey and a large set of industry
figures and indicators to deliver both bottom-up and top-down approaches
in sizing the app economy. The VisionMobile App Economy Forecast 2013 2016 report provides a unique set of data points on the current state and
growth of the app economy including:
Forecasts (2013 - 2016) for revenues across regions (North America,

Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa)
Forecasts (2013 - 2016) for revenues across platforms (Android,
iOS, HTML5, Windows Phone)
Forecasts (2013 - 2016) for revenues across revenue sources (App
stores, In-app advertising, mobile e-Commerce, outsourced
development, other)
Forecasts (2013 - 2016) for the Mobile Developer population
globally
Mobile developer population by region, platform and revenue
source for 2013
The report is available on our website:

www.developereconomics.com/Forecasts
58
distilling market noise into market sense
59

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1

VisionMobile 2013 | www.DeveloperEconomics.com/go

VisionMobileTM is an analyst firm helping companies

Chapter 1: State of the device nation, Q3 2013:

Which platform is right?

1. License Grant. Subject to the terms and conditions of this

Chapter 6: How developers mix and match

Copyright VisionMobile 2013

popular motivator. The fun of making an app, is a motivator for 40% of

About Developer Economics

State of the device nation, Q3 2013:

Android: the falling price floor

Microsofts latest attempt at gaining a mobile market share is Windows 8,

A new wave of platform challengers hits the

Among handset makers, Samsung remains in lead position in smartphone

The elusive ticket to smartphone profits

Samsungs profit recipe see VisionMobiles 2012 Mobile Insider research

Ecosystem economics: competing

Source: VisionMobile | http://visionmobile.com/M2M | June 2013

Three platform control points to stimulate network effects

Source: VisionMobile | http://visionmobile.com/M2M | June 2013

Facebook for example competes with iOS/Android by diluting the

Challenging the odds

platform. The entire BYOD (bring-your-own-device) megatrend is

State of mobile developer:

The strong interest in Windows Phone observed in past surveys

Choices, choices, choices. Which

Our research shows that iOS is selected more frequently than

The Multi-Platform Developer: Its

Naturally platform priorities are not one-size-fits-all. We see very clear

Platform priorities are also influenced by the category of apps developed:

"From a business standpoint, there's a lot

More importantly, platform priorities depend heavily on the developer

"Content is king develop apps but

The real measure of developer loyalty

appear for new startups advertising their app on a website, a billboard or a

Beyond the duopoly, lead platform share drops dramatically. 28% of

How developers mix and match

BlackBerry 10 as a secondary platform by developers who mainly use

"Learning a language nowadays is not

The earlier chart shows how developers preference on mixing and

Developer attention in tablets

Feature phone development remains on the same level (18% of mobile

Developer revenue models: a box of

In Enterprises, mobility is often implemented

At $5,200 per developer per month on average, iOS continues to

Developer tools: crossing the

"The productivity gains from using

"The biggest bottleneck in cross-platform

mobile developers. CPTs are essential in reducing cost when scaling up

BaaS is really hard to justify the value of.

At the other end of the popularity spectrum we find cross-promotion

Tools, a hygiene factor for mobile platforms

"It doesn't make sense for a startup to do

In todays hyper-competitive app economy, developers cant

Tools are for pros, not rookies

The common challenge for developers is the tool discovery bottleneck.

want to contribute, they expect to see their suggestion implemented

The kaleidoscope of HTML5 app

"We thought of developing our own

The next table analyses the many approaches to HTML5 mobile

Approaches to mobile development using HTML5

Built using (examples)

Websites that are designed to be