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IISS news
3

Geo-economics and Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Key Addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Book Launches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Latin America. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Defence and Military Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Arctic Climate Change and Security . . . . . . . . . . 7
Transnational Threats and Political Risk . . . . . . . 7

May

Non-proliferation and Disarmament . . . . . . . . . 8

South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Russia and Eurasia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
IISSUS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
IISSAsia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
IISSMiddle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Cyber Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Dr Leonardo Simao, former

Minister of Foreign Affairs
of Mozambique

Dr John Chipman, Olusegun

Obasanjo and Dr Sanjaya Baru

New Opportunities in Africa

Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo was among the luminaries at

Smith claimed that the absence of Nigeria, in particular, and West Africa in

a thought-provoking IISS Geo-economics and Strategy Conference in Bahrain

general from many of the continental negotiations between Africa and Asia

in early April focusing on new opportunities in Africa. Two of the most

and Latin America is undermining African efforts to better coordinate policy

attention-grabbing notions put forward at the conference were that Africas

and continental interests.

economic hub was actually in Dubai and that the BRICS grouping might benefit from including Nigeria in a new BRINCS.
The need to manage the continents resource industries carefully was also

During the conference, a general consensus emerged that, despite the

collective power of the BRICS, individual BRICS countries investments and
trade had greater influence in Africa.

a major theme of The Geo-Economics of Resource and Conflict in Africa con-

So too did the UAE, which has made huge investments in Africa over the

ference from 79 April in Manama, as were the risks presented by terrorism,

past decade. Nowhere in Africa is more than eight hours flying time from

drugs and crime, particularly in West Africa.

Dubai, and with flights out of Africa via Dubai often cheaper than regional

The conference, which assessed the balance between these business opportunities and political risks, took place against a backdrop of increasing trade
between Gulf and sub-Saharan countries. African experts, policymakers,
investors, business leaders and researchers also attended.

flights, it has become a hub like Singapore and Hong Kong. The Financial Times
Michael Peel explored the closer economic ties between the Gulf and Africa.
In a separate session, Fred Swaniker of the African Leadership Academy
provided a handy backgrounder for potential investors in Africa, describing

Former President Obasanjo stressed the centrality of Africas two largest

the five fundamental forces at play in todays Africa, the seven areas of greatest

economies, South Africa and Nigeria. He suggested that the better those two

opportunity, the four major downsides and the three ways to best mitigate the

countries did, the better for the continent generally.

risks. Michael Spicer, the CEO of Business Leadership South Africa discussed

However, in his paper, Africa Confidential editor Patrick Smith highlighted

business opportunities in southern Africa; and Statoils Fareed Mohamedi

some of the tensions between these two behemoths, which had been com-

talked about the oil and gas industries in eastern Africa. Emmanuel Aning

pounded by South Africas recent inclusion in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India,

from the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre presented

China and South Africa) grouping. While acknowledging many of the risks

the concluding session on transnational threats in West Africa.

(from corruption and scams to terrorism) that businesses faced in Nigeria,

Read papers from all six of the conference sessions at http://bit.ly/1285ubd.

KEY ADDRESSES

Consolidating Kosovos Statehood

Though Belgrade has not yet officially recognised Kosovo, dialogues
between Belgrade and Pristina have resulted in Serbia accepting Kosovos de
facto independence. In April, Kosovo and Serbia reached a landmark agreement to normalise relations. Under the EU-brokered deal, both sides have
agreed not to block each others efforts to seek EU membership. The agreement also brings the mostly Serb municipalities in the north under Kosovo
law. The agreement has not yet been ratified by Pristina or Belgrade, but
Hoxhaj was optimistic about Kosovos domestic political advances and stability.
We are very proud that we are a secular state, he said, explaining that
Kosovo had been able to adopt a modern constitution based on the principles
of democracy, multi-ethnicity and secularism. Through political stability and
minority integration, he said, Kosovo was moving towards a multi-ethnic,
inclusive, cohesive society that also enjoyed macroeconomic and fiscal stabilEnver Hoxhaj

ity.

Peoples lives are much better in an independent Kosovo than they have been

Kosovo has now been recognised by 98 countries. He particularly praised the

at many points throughout history, according to Enver Hoxhaj, Kosovos for-

UKs support, not just from politicians and diplomats, but also the journalists

eign minister.

and human-rights activists that played a role in building modern Kosovo.

In what he called a global geography of recognition, he noted that

In a key address at the IISS on 9 April, Hoxhaj described Kosovo as a suc-

In the immediate future, Kosovo would focus on key partnerships, espe-

cess story of the international community thanks to its own efforts and the

cially with the UK and EU. Above all, he said, Kosovo wanted to exercise

support of many other nations.

its sovereignty and be an active participant in regional and international

Kosovo, made up of mainly Albanians and some Serb communities in the

issues.

north, unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in February 2008. Until

Responding to an audience question on whether the eurozone crisis would

then, it was administered by the UN. Continued tension between the Serb and

affect Kosovos strategic thinking, he said Europe must avoid the culture of

Albanian populations and the Serbian governments crackdown on separatist

fear caused by the debt crisis. He felt that many Asian countries were expe-

pressure after the breakup of Yugoslavia led to NATOs military interven-

riencing a wave of optimism that he did not feel in Europe. He explained

tion in 1999. The International Court of Justice, the United States and many

how even in bad times, such as during Milosevic, Kosovo had a strong hope,

European countries have recognised Kosovos independence, but the fledg-

which he believed had played a big part in helping Kosovo achieve many of

ling nation still faces a struggle to consolidate its statehood and gain further

its goals in the last five years.

international recognition and membership in international organisations.

Hoxhaj asserted that the project of building a new state from scratch had
been a success, despite hurdles such as the legacy of conflict and the contin-

This meeting took place at Arundel House, London and was chaired by
Dr Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs
and Editor of Survival. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/15dL8n3.

ued international presence.

The Way Forward in

Defence Acquisition
Bernard Gray, UK Chief of Defence Materiel, spoke at Arundel House
on 25 February on The Way Forward in Defence Acquisition: International Cooperation and Reform. He delivered the keynote address
for a two-day conference on the NATO Smart Defence initiative, part of
a series of IISS events supported by the NATO Public Diplomacy
department.
Gray, who is reforming UK defence procurement after writing a trenchant
report for the previous government, commented that the Smart Defence principles of prioritisation, specialisation and cooperation were equally applicable

Bernard Gray

to the challenges faced by the defence industry. Europe, he said, was burdened by overcapacity and duplication in manufacturing: So within NATO

Speakers in the seminar included Patrick Auroy, NATO Assistant

we have experienced the symptoms, but we have also identified one possible

Secretary-General for Defence Investment, General Stephane Abrial, adviser

treatment Smart Defence. We now need to persuade ourselves to take the

at Safran and former Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, and Sir

medicine.

Brian Burridge, Vice President at Finmeccanica UK.

MAY 2013

IISS NEWS

KEY ADDRESSES

The Foreign Policy of the New Chinese Government

nor the world can achieve development. He said that China today was
very different from that of ten or even five years ago, and that its growth
was attributable not only to its own opening up but to the eras peace and
stability.
China will not repeat the history of the current established powers who
confronted each other and fought for ascendancy, but rather build a new
type of relations, characterised by openness, inclusiveness, and mutual
trust, he explained.
China would also collaborate with other countries outside the region,
including Africa and the BRICs, not just through investment, but scholarships and people-to-people contact. This would allow others to learn
more about Chinas history, culture, tradition and unique system, and
would help the rest of the world see China as an opportunity rather than
a threat. Liu said good news from China did not travel as far and as
quickly as bad news, and that China must be more effective at telling its
Liu Xiaoming

story.
Liu did touch upon Chinas Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute with Japan.

The predominant goal of Chinas foreign policy is to ensure a peaceful global

There is no denying that we have territorial disputes with some neighbouring

environment, said Liu Xiaoming, Chinas ambassador to the UK, at the IISS

countries and China will not compromise its legitimate rights or interests,

on 17 April.

he said. While China was optimistic that the disputes could be resolved bilat-

In March, Chinas transition to a new generation of leaders was finalised

but it is still unclear what this means for Chinas foreign policy. In a key
address, Liu discussed Chinas diplomatic goals in the new era.
Liu described the kind of world China wanted to build, with a commitment to peace to enable global development: Without peace, neither China

erally and by peaceful means, it would not allow anyone to make trouble on
its doorstep.
This meeting took place at Arundel House, London and was chaired by Dr
John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive of the IISS. Watch the
address at http://bit.ly/10pkVtZ.

Somalia: Ending the Transition

the capital, Mogadishu, and from their strongholds in central and southern
Somalia.
Ali outlined a crucial roadmap adopted in September 2011. In a bid to
bring the long civil war to an end, this set out a timetable for writing a new
constitution, beginning a process of political reconciliation, reforming parliament and other institutions and securing the country from the clutches
of extremists. Ali, then still prime minister, inked the document with representatives of the breakaway Puntland region, the central Galmudug region,
and the pro-government militia Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa. Representatives of
the United Nations, African Union and other regional organisations also
signed.
Despite some concerns within the international community that the
plan was too ambitious, it had produced unexpected and dramatic positive results. On the security front, more than 85% of central and southern
Dr Abdiweli Mohamed Ali

Somalia had been liberated from al-Shabaab and stabilised. Steps had been
taken towards establishing new state institutions. A new constitution had

Somalia has been through one of the longest transitions on the planet, its

been approved in April 2012, and piracy off the coast of Somalia had fallen

former prime minister, Dr Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, said when he visited the

dramatically as the situation inside the country improved.

IISS on 11 March. He was referring to the 21 years of civil war since 1991,

Nonetheless, Ali admitted that his country was not out of the woods yet

during which Somalia at best only ever had transitional governments and

and that al-Shabaab remained a threat to stability. Work also remained to

the fabric of Somali society was destroyed.

be done in convincing the breakaway region of Somaliland to join a unified

Now the country had the chance of a new start, with the swearing-in of a

Somalia.

new parliament in August 2012, the election of a new president in September

Dr Nicholas Redman, Senior Fellow for Geopolitical Risk and Economic

and a series of military successes by government forces, African Union troops

Security, chaired the meeting. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.

and neighbouring armies that had driven Islamist al-Shabaab fighters from

ly/14hfgcE.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2013 | 3

BOOK LAUNCHES

Adelphi Book on Iraqs Unhappy Anniversary

on the rise of Nuri al-Maliki as
Iraqs autocratic new prime minister. Originally an unremarkable
politician, Maliki gradually accrued
more power while rivals were distracted by infighting. He built up a
small, cohesive group of functionaries, known as the Malikiyoun,
placing these friends, loyalists and
family members in important government positions; and he brought
key institutions under the control

Dr Nicholas Redman and Dr Toby Dodge

of his office, including 4,500 crack,

Ten years after the war in Iraq, Dr Toby Dodges timely new IISS Adelphi book

US-trained Special Forces who are

on the country has attracted widespread press coverage.

now nicknamed the Fedayeen al-

Its central thesis that Iraq is descending into a new period of authoritarian rule a decade after the removal of dictator Saddam Hussein poses

Maliki and treated as his personal

army.

fundamental questions about the US-led invasion in 2003. This caught the

When Malikis State of Law coalition narrowly lost the 2010 national elec-

attention of leading journalists across the world, from Thomas Ricks in

tions to Iyad al-Allawis Iraqiyya Sunni coalition, by 89 to 91 seats, the prime

Foreign Policy to John Rentoul in the UKs Independent and Peter Hartcher in

minister had become so bold that he had refused to step aside and ordered a

Australias Sydney Morning Herald.

recount to prevent a return to violence, Dodge said.

For anyone who wants to know how Iraq arrived at its current state, and

The author was relatively downbeat about Iraqs future, saying that the re-

wonders what might happen next, this is an excellent place to begin, said The

emergence of sectarian politics was worrying. The only positive angle was the

Economist in its review of the book, Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism.

countrys powerful security services would probably prevent it from return-

Dodge, IISS Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, says the inva-

ing to full-scale civil war.

sion cost the lives of 4,500 US military personnel and more than 110,000 Iraqi

The London book launch was chaired by Dr Nicholas Redman, Editor,

civilians. Some $200 billion had been spent on reconstruction, but the lions

Adelphi books. Watch the launch at http://bit.ly/125QoD9. It was later launched

share had been allocated to the army and security services, and the civilian

at IISSUS in Washington DC. Watch the US launch at http://bit.ly/17XsJIJ. A

capacity of the state remained woefully adequate.

webinar also took place on 28 February where IISS members and guests were

Dodge launched Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism at the Institutes

Bloomsbury House in London on 15 January. At the launch, Dodge focused

invited to dial in to hear Toby Dodge discuss the book and to ask him questions.

IISSUS Adelphi Book Launch

On 21 March, IISSUS hosted Christian Le Mire,

are occupied by China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and

IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime

the Philippines, but also claimed by Brunei and

Security for the launch of Regional Disorder: The

Taiwan; and Macclesfield Bank/Scarborough Reef,

South China Sea Disputes, the Adelphi book co-

which are claimed by China and Taiwan, with the

authored with Sarah Raine.

Philippines also claiming Scarborough Reef.

The South China Sea (SCS) is a critical sea line

Le Mire outlined four possible outcomes to the

of communication; half of the worlds maritime

disputes: 1) the US cedes some strategic primacy

trade passes through it and it is home to fisheries

and allows China to take on more of a strategic

and military bases. Le Mire explained that con-

position, but this scenario is unlikely; 2) either

flict could be avoided if the countries involved in

the US or China assumes regional hegemony; 3)

the SCS disputes could clarify their claims, collab-

managed mistrust the most likely scenario that

orate to define the local features, contextualise the

would ensure a level of insecurity but not con-

disputes away from the idea of Sino-US competi-

flict, where China and the US vie for influence

tion, and civilianise the region.

and Southeast Asian states recognise their roles

Adam Ward and Christian Le Mire

The Adelphi examines four main territorial dis-

and pitch in wherever possible; and 4) regional

putes: the Paracels, which are occupied by China

conflict. There were however potential dispute-

Watch the launch at http://bit.ly/19mE6sD. This

and claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam;

management tools: clarification; collaboration;

Adelphi was also launched at Arundel House,

the Pratas, which are occupied by Taiwan and

and contextualisation. This meeting was moder-

London on 10 April. Watch the London launch at

claimed by China and Taiwan; the Spratlys, which

ated by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies.

http://bit.ly/YGMstD.

MAY 2013

IISS NEWS

LATIN AMERICA / DISCUSSION MEE TING

Integration in Latin
America
On 28 February, Antnio Sampaio, Research Analyst for Latin America, chaired
the discussion panel 'Different Visions of Integration in Latin America', with
Miriam Gomes Saraiva, former Rio Branco Chair in International Relations at
the University of Oxford, Gian Luca Gardini, Senior Lecturer in International

(lr): Miriam Gomes Saraiva, Gian Luca Gardini,

Relations and Latin American Politics at the University of Bath, and Eduardo
Plastino, Senior International Economy Analyst at Oxford Analytica.

Brazil, said Saraiva, has promoted the Union of South American Nations

Latin America has seen several different initiatives of regional integration in

(UNASUR) as the main multilateral initiative in the region. Gardini and

the past few years. The Pacific Alliance, formalised last year between Chile,

Plastino, on the other hand, highlighted the different policies adopted by

Peru, Colombia and Mexico, plans to accelerate the implementation of free

Pacific countries such as Chile, Peru and Colombia, which maintain closer

trade in 2013. Meanwhile, the main economies of Mercosur (Common Market

relations with the US and the Asia-Pacific.

of the South: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela) adopt

measures to protect their industries from outside competition.

This event took place at Bloomsbury House, London. Watch the discussion
at http://bit.ly/19o1Cp0.

The BRICS in Global Affairs

The BRICS group Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has gathered momentum as a counterbalance to developed Western countries within
the G20. This was one of the conclusions of the panel discussion The BRICS in
Global Affairs, that took place at Arundel House on 17 April with IISS experts
Dr Sanjaya Baru, Nigel Inkster, Dr Nicholas Redman and Antnio Sampaio,
Research Analyst for Latin America.

(lr): Antnio Sampaio, Dr Nicholas Redman, Adam Ward, Nigel Inkster and Dr Sanjaya Baru

The speakers highlighted the growing ability of the group to discuss security matters such as Syria, even though key differences remain on the issue of

likely that India, Brazil and South Africa will reinforce the IBSA framework,

UN Security Council reform. The panel also discussed the disparities between

which might coexist with BRICS initiatives to reform global governance insti-

member countries. With China outperforming the other four economies, it is

tutions. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/12diTAm.

Forward? Barack Obamas Second Term

On 31 January, the IISS held a discussion meeting with Dr Dana Allin, IISS
Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Mark
Fitzpatrick, Director, IISS Non-proliferation Programme. Fitzpatrick and Allin
used their recent Survival articles Iran Will Determine Obamas Legacy and
The Country We Carry in Our Hearts as springboards to discuss the prospects for Obamas second term.
Although foreign policy played only a small role in the US presidential
campaign, the way Obama handled Iran before 2016 could determine how the
president goes down in history, Fitzpatrick said. He described the installation
of new centrifuges at Irans uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz as a game
changer. There was the chance that some sort of military action may come into
play in the next four years to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

(lr): Mark Fitzpatrick, Adam Ward and Dr Dana Allin

In general, Fitzpatrick predicted that Obamas second-term handling of

international affairs will be reactive rather than proactive. However, he

Allin described the 2012 presidential election as putting the status of

welcomed a recent announcement that US Vice President Joe Biden would

American society on the ballot in a way that was unique in recent years. He

soon begin talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over reducing

noted that Obamas actions in his first term suggested his image as a great

nuclear weaponry.

conciliator was exaggerated. His second term would likely be characterised

Both speakers agreed that climate change would advance up the presidents foreign-policy agenda in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. If the US

by aggression on both sides of the aisle, with compromises being reached only
when one partys position was untenable.

could come close to meeting the provisions for environmental sustainability

This meeting was held at Bloomsbury House, London. Watch the discus-

detailed in the Kyoto Protocol, Allin said, it would be well-positioned to lead

sion and download a copy of Mark Fitzpatricks prepared remarks at http://

the international community on energy reform.

bit.ly/102JyeM.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2013 | 5

DEFENCE AND MILITARY ANALYSIS

Air Operations in Afghanistan

On 15 February, RAF Air Commodore Mike

from their peak of 350,000 to around 200,000, he

Wigston delivered a presentation on air operations

pointed out that the army will remain the larg-

in Afghanistan. Wigston was, until the end of 2012,

est force. The air force, by contrast, currently has

director for air operations within the International

a planned maximum strength of 8,000 personnel

Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Joint Command

and 145 aircraft, over half of which will be rotary-

in Kabul.

wing. Given these limitations, Wigston said there

Wigston argued that air power has provided

was a requirement for the Afghan forces to get

ISAF with a key asymmetric advantage in the

used to the level of capability they will have

war in Afghanistan. He also made clear just how

available to them from 2015. The air force, he

much the air picture would change, in terms of

suggested, will have to be used very carefully

platform numbers as well as capability, as coali-

and selectively.

tion forces draw down and the Afghan armed

This meeting was chaired by Douglas Barrie,

forces continue to assume lead responsibility for

IISS Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace and took

security. Numbers give some indication: even

place at Arundel House, London. Listen to the dis-

when the Afghan armed forces and police reduce

cussion at http://bit.ly/ZmzmPb.

Air Commodore Mike Wigston

Chinas Maritime Challenge to the US

Chinas naval development and assertive policies in its near-seas are a concern for regional
neighbours and increasingly, for the US. The much-vaunted US rebalance to Asia seeks to
reassure its allies in the region and deter, but not provoke, China. However, there is the
possibility that Washingtons treaty alliances could lead to US involvement in a damaging
conflict in the region.
On 25 April, Professor Lyle Goldstein discussed his research into Chinas naval rise,
particularly through the use of Chinese-language sources, and future strategies for the
US in East Asia. Highlighting the possibility of co-operation spirals to induce a self-sustaining dynamic of confidence-building, Goldstein suggested that while Chinas naval
development was continuing apace there was scope for greater peaceful coexistence in
Asia.
Goldstein also drew heavily on the recent book by Professor Hugh White, The China
Choice, who addressed the Institute on the topic in October 2012.
The meeting was chaired by Christian Le Mire, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and
Maritime Security. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/17Xf9oU.

Professor Lyle Goldstein

Initial Lessons from Operations in Mali

On 15 February, Franois Heisbourg, Chairman of the IISS and of the Geneva
Centre for Security Policy (Special Advisor, Fondation pour la Recherche
Stratgique, Paris), gave an assessment of the current French-led operation
in Mali.
The operation was then in the process of moving from a French
lead to Malian lead with support from France, African states and an
EU training mission. Much remained to be done in securing Mali and
in initiating a political process. But the conflict had already shown the
value of high-readiness intervention forces including strike aircraft, special forces, attack helicopters and wheeled armour. Some of these were
already based in the region, giving France a key advantage, particularly
in halting the surprise jihadist advance on Bamako. The critical role of

Franois Heisbourg and Brigadier Ben Barry

intelligence including airborne surveillance, and the importance of support capabilities such as airlift and in-flight refuelling had also been
demonstrated.
6

MAY 2013

This meeting was chaired by Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land
Warfare at the IISS. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/169LNpK.
IISS NEWS

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURIT Y / TRANSNATIONAL THREATS / PUBLICATIONS

Forum for Arctic Climate

Change and Security
On 19 April, the IISS Forum for Arctic Climate Change and Security held its
Capstone seminar in Stockholm, with participation from Finnish Foreign
Minister Erkki Tuomioja and Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. They were
joined by regional experts who discussed developing a regional security
framework, logistical barriers to Arctic economic development and Russias

(lr): Carl Bildt, Adam Ward and Erkki Tuomioja

Arctic interests.
Bildt and Tuomioja outlined key points of action for Arctic stability their

even limited extractive activity means a tremendous change for which we

countries would address. Both ministers stressed that military assets pres-

have to be prepared with stringent environmental standards, Tuomioja said,

ent in the Arctic did not signify competition or confrontation, and that

due to the sensitivity of the Arctic environment.

regional cooperation on maritime security and search and rescue was strong.

The ministers also highlighted the key role of the Arctic Council as the

According to Tuomioja, the security concerns in the region related to envi-

primary governance body in the region. It had negotiated a legally binding

ronmental change, threats to biodiversity and the risk of environmental

search-and-rescue agreement between the eight Arctic states, as well as an

catastrophe are not in any sense military concerns, but they are real chal-

oil-spill preparedness and response plan.

lenges and threats to human security.

The forum is set to continue with an Adelphi book co-authored by the proj-

On emerging economic opportunities, Bildt said opening up of [shipping]

ect leads, Dr Jeffrey Mazo and Christian Le Mire, and a special session on

routes will happen, you can argue whether its going to be fast or slow but it

Strategic and Security Issues in the Arctic at the IISS Global Strategic Review

will happen. Hydrocarbon extraction may be slower than anticipated, but

conference in September 2013.

Modernising Drug Law Enforcement Seminar

On 21 March, the Transnational Threats and Political Risk Programme co-

During

the

March

practitioners,

event,

participants

aimed
debated

primarily
the

at

merits

law-enforce-

hosted a day-long seminar as part of Modernising Drug Law Enforcement

ment

(MDLE), a project by the International Drug Policy Consortium (IDPC), with

deterrence vs. zero-tolerance approaches; discussed how, in practice, the

of

targeted

the participation of the International Security Research Department at Chatham

principles of harm reduction could be applied to drug markets; and how

House and the IISS.

police forces could support harm reduction strategies. The overall goal

The project aims to examine new strategies for drug law enforcement, that

of the MDLE project is to produce actionable practical recommenda-

focus on reducing the harmful consequences that arise from drug markets

tions hence law-enforcement practitioners were encouraged to share best

and drug use, rather than just on seizing drugs or arresting users. A series of

practice and truly discuss the feasibility of all proposals based on policing

commissioned reports, analysis, and meetings will attempt to provide useful

experience.

guidance to law-enforcement managers on how to develop strategies and tactics that are relevant to the challenges posed by 21st century drug markets.

All project papers and a full seminar report can be viewed at http://bit.ly/
YZjUqE.

Survival: Global Politics and New Adelphi

Strategy
Adelphi 436-437:

Latest issue

Regional Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes by Sarah Raine and
Christian Le Mire

In the JuneJuly 2013 issue of Survival, Mark

Chinas rise casts a vast and uncertain shadow over the regional balance of power

Fitzpatrick and David C. Gompert discuss

in the Asia-Pacific, and nowhere is this clearer than in the South China Sea (SCS).

regime change in North Korea; Massimo

The significance of the fraught territorial disputes in this potentially resource-rich

Franco explores how Francis Is appointment

sea extends far beyond the small groupings of islands that are at their heart, and

will affect the Catholic Church; and Vanda

into the world of great-power politics. As the struggle for hegemony between the

Felbab-Brown examines the influence of crime

US and China intersects with the overlapping aspirations of emerging, smaller

on military conflicts. Also in the issue: David

nations, the risk of escalation to regional conflict is real.

Fisher on morality in security policy, Erik Jones

Sarah Raine and Christian Le Mire cut through the complexities of these

on preserving the euro and Antnio Sampaio on South America after the

disputes with a clear-sighted, and much-needed, analysis of the assorted strat-

death of Hugo Chvez.

egies deployed in support of the multiple and competing claims in the SCS.

Survival issues are also available for purchase as e-books or through the

They make a compelling case that the course of these disputes will determine

Survival for iPad app. See http://www.iiss.org/publications/survival/ for

whether the regional order in Southeast Asia is one of cooperation, or one of

details.

competition and even conflict.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2013 | 7

NONPR OLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

Exploring Regime Resilience in Damascus

On 18 April, the IISS hosted a discussion meeting exploring why Syrian
President Bashar al-Assads regime had survived throughout the now twoyear long uprising despite initial predictions of his impending fall. Dr Ibrahim
Al-Marashi, Assistant Professor of Middle East history at California State
University, San Marcos, and Adjunct Scholar at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, drew comparisons
with his study of the coercive structures of Saddam Husseins Iraq to assess
the similar roles that armed forces, intelligence agencies, and weapons of
mass destruction have played in buttressing the Syrian state. He highlighted
that the fall of the regime was not inevitable and that the Assad family had
carefully built a system of multiple security agencies that monitor society

(lr): Mark Fitzpatrick, Dr Ibrahim Al-Marashi and Julien Barnes-Dacey

and each other making them coup proof. According to Marashi, the Syrian
government calculates that chemical weapons are primarily for deterrence

that it still has broad support and a strong security apparatus. In addition,

and strategic stability with others states in the region, so it is unlikely they

the crisis is unfolding in a climate of non-interference in the West, while Iran

would use them for internal repression in the manner of Saddam Hussein.

has invested all its credibility in defending the Assad regime. This meeting

Julien Barnes-Dacey, a Senior Policy Fellow with the European Council on

was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS Non-proliferation and

Foreign Relations, asked why the regime would not be resilient. He explained

Disarmament Programme. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/18FodzR.

Iran Beyond the Nuclear Question

Just as another round of negotiations was about to take place between the
P5+1 and Iran on its nuclear programme, on 4 March the IISS hosted a discussion on the dynamics of domestic politics in Iran. Internal developments will
determine the policies and direction that this key nation the largest in the
Middle East will take in the coming years.
Dr Rouzbeh Parsi, Research Fellow at the European Union Institute for
Security Studies (EUISS) and Mohammad Ali Shabani, doctoral researcher
at SOAS, examined the countrys internal political structure and decisionmaking mechanism, agreeing that politics in Iran was not monolithic. The
speakers also examined the hot topics and likely candidates of the upcoming
presidential elections in Iran.
This meeting was chaired by Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate in the
Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme. Watch the discussion at

Mohammad Ali Shabani, Dina Esfandiary and Dr Rouzbeh Parsi

http://bit.ly/16ubp02.

Watching and
Worrying about
North Korea

UN Sanctions on
Iran

On 6 February, Joel Wit, Visiting Scholar at the USKorea

Problems in Auckland, New Zealand. This workshop,

Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International

the 6th in a series covering sanctions on Iran in differ-

Studies, led a discussion about North Koreas latest provoca-

ent regions, was in support of the UN Panel of Experts

tions and growing nuclear and missile capabilities. Arguing

on Iran sanctions. The event assembled practitioners

On 16 January, the IISS convened a workshop on

Implementing Sanctions on Iran: Prospects and

from Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands to

that the Obama administration policy of strategic patience

had failed, he advocated a more proactive approach to

Joel Wit

discuss their experiences in sanctions implementation

change the dynamic on the Korean Peninsula. Otherwise, he

and to share best practices, particularly in the fields

said, Pyongyang might soon acquire up to 50 nuclear weapons. During the spirited discussion that

of transportation and finance. Other topics included

followed his remarks, Wit said North Korea would not stop proliferating until forced, so the US

export controls and customs-related measures. A final

could either stand back or dive in and stop development of the nuclear programme.

session covered autonomous sanctions by Australia,

This meeting was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS Non-proliferation and
Disarmament Programme. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/14haV9u.
8

MAY 2013

the EU, and the US. A report of the workshop is available to download in PDF format at http://bit.ly/13sK6jK.
IISS NEWS

NONPR OLIFERATION AND DISARMAMENT

Pakistans Nuclear History

and Future

Examining the North

Korean Paradox

Pakistans recent expansion of its

On

nuclear capabilities more plutonium

Yungwoo,

production capacity and introduc-

Security Advisor of the Republic of Korea

tion of battlefield-use nuclear-armed

a month earlier, gave an off-the-record

missiles set the backdrop for a dis-

presentation at Arundel House on North

cussion on 12 December of how and

Koreas worsening existential crisis and

why Pakistans nuclear weapons

the policy options for concerned nations.

programme has reached this stage.

Reflecting on the accomplishments of the

The discussion was led by an expert

policies he crafted as part of President Lee

with first-hand experience, Feroz

Myung-baks administration, Ambassador

Khan, who formerly headed the

arms control and disarmament direc-

25

March,
who

Ambassador
retired

as

Chun

National

Chun asserted that by seeking a sustainFeroz Khan

able peace, not peace at any cost, President

torate of the Strategic Plans Division

Lee had restructured inter-Korea policy

of the Pakistan military. Now a lecturer at the US Naval Postgraduate

for the long-term benefit of the Korean

School at Monterey, California, Khan also discussed the future directions the

Peninsula and wider region. The goal of denuclearising North Korea has

programme may take, and the surrounding policy implications. This meet-

become more problematic, but it is not impossible, given Pyongyangs increas-

ing was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the IISS Non-proliferation

ing vulnerabilities. Other states should sharpen a binary choice for the North

and Disarmament Programme. Listen to the discussion at http://bit.ly/

to denuclearise or collapse. This meeting was chaired by Mark Fitzpatrick,

YQBKmn.

IISS Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme.

Chun Yungwoo

Foreign-policy Implications
of the Trident Replacement
Decision
On 13 March, four eminent former UK statesmen Sir Jeremy Greenstock,
Lord David Hannay, Sir Richard Mottram and Lord Gus ODonnell assessed
the foreign-policy implications of the Trident replacement decision, particularly in terms of the UKs international status and global influence. Although
it was argued that Britains nuclear weapons do buy the UK a certain
amount of influence with key NATO Allies, it was ultimately the UKs economic weight and conventional power not its nuclear weapons capabilities

(lr): Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Lord David Hannay, Mark Fitzpatrick, Lord Gus ODonnell
and Sir Richard Mottram

that contributed most to British global leadership and influence. The crux
of the 2016 decision facing the next government on the future of Trident is

during the Cold War and that it should not be assumed that Britain will need

whether to move away from continuous-at-sea-deterrence (CASD). With the

CASD in perpetuity. Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and

forthcoming Trident Alternatives Review, the panellists recommended that

Disarmament Programme, chaired the panel discussion. Watch the discussion

the government seriously address the CASD concept and policy devised

at http://bit.ly/YQzYSi.

North Korean UN Sanctions Workshop in Johannesburg

On 19 March, in support of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea sanc-

Ghana, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and

tions, the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme organised

the United States. Taking place less than two weeks after the adoption

a workshop in Johannesburg to discuss the regional challenges of imple-

of the latest UN Security Council Resolution on North Korea, the work-

menting UN sanctions vis--vis the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

shop addressed the implementation of sanctions in the transportation

(DPRK) and to share best practices for compliance. Co-sponsored by the

and financial sectors, export-control and customs-related measures, and

South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies, the workshop convened

regional approaches to the enforcement of UN sanctions on the DPRK. A

more than 40 government officials, banking representatives and non-gov-

report of the workshop is available to download in PDF format at http://

ernmental specialists from Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,

bit.ly/13sHvWX.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2013 | 9

SOUTH ASIA

IISS Nuclear Doctrines Workshops in India and Pakistan

Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies; Naresh Chandra, former Chairman, National Security Advisory Board and former
chairman of the governments high-level task force on defence, India; Dr Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA

Lt.-Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (retd.), Director General,

Strategic Plans Division (SPD), National Command
Authority (NCA), Pakistan

The IISS organised two workshops on defence and nuclear doctrines in

security mechanism including tiered physical protection system, human

New Delhi (5 March) and Islamabad (7 March). An eight-member IISS

reliability programmes, complete emergency management system and

team from London travelled to both countries. These workshops took

comprehensive training. Pakistan has a strong export-control mechanism

place with the participation of senior military officers and government

and is fully committed to the objectives of non-proliferation as a partner in

officials in the respective countries. The New Delhi workshop was held

global efforts.

in cooperation with the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA)

Kidwai said that while Pakistan is not in an arms race with India, its

and the Islamabad workshop with the Centre for International Strategic

development of short-range nuclear weapons is intended to restore the

Studies (CISS).

disturbed strategic balance in South Asia and ensuring that deterrence

In India, Naresh Chandra, former Chairman, National Security

does not breakdown. Indian effort to wage a short, swift and intense con-

Advisory Board and former chairman of the governments high-level task

ventional conflict without invoking Pakistans nuclear threshold was the

force on defence, delivered the keynote address. With respect to a future

primary cause of the strategic imbalance. Pakistan is an energy-deficient

IndiaPakistan crisis, Chandra questioned what could happen if terrorists

country and needs access to civil nuclear technology on a criteria-based

struck India from Pakistan. India could ensure it made the cost of this too

approach and rejects country-specific approach to civil nuclear com-

high for Pakistan, but there were a number of challenges. These included

merce.

whom to target and with what measures, as well as the fact that aggres-

In Islamabad, the IISS also held meetings with Foreign Secretary Jalil

sive use of military force could scuttle escalation control. Such challenges

Abbas Jilani, ISI Director General (Analysis) Major-General Isfandiyar

had to be well-thought out, he added. India was also concerned over

Pataudi, and the Additional Director General of the Federal Investigation

ChinaPakistan nuclear and missile cooperation. Other workshop sessions

Agency (FIA), Khalid Qureshi. The IISS will continue to build on these

included Conflicts & Crises with Pakistan: Lessons Learnt with Lt.-Gen.

workshops and discussions on defence and nuclear doctrines in India and

Prakash Menon (retd.), Military Advisor, National Security Council

Pakistan. The two workshops were coordinated by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

Secretariat.

and Antoine Levesques.

In New Delhi, the IISS also had discussions with the Deputy NSA, Latha
Reddy and the R&AW Chief Alok Joshi. The External Affairs Minister
Salman Khurshid and the Minister for Information & Broadcasting Manish
Tewari attended an informal reception hosted by the IISS.
In Pakistan, Lt.-Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (retd.), Director General,
Strategic Plans Division (SPD), National Command Authority (NCA), delivered the keynote address. Kidwai discussed the rationale of Pakistans
nuclear programme and challenges to the deterrence regime in South Asia,
and addressed perceptions of Pakistans nuclear capability.
He also explained the key elements of Pakistans nuclear policy and the
management of its nuclear capability. These include deterring all forms
of aggression and defending sovereignty, maintaining credible minimum
deterrence, developing a modest nuclear triad, no use or threat to use
nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapons state unless that state
joins a hostile military coalition and nuclear-armed state(s), no proliferation to any entity or state, fool-proof safety and security, pursuing strategic
restraint regime and other risk-reduction measures, and supporting universal and non-discriminatory arms control and disarmament initiatives.
Pakistan has a regularly augmented comprehensive four-tier nuclear
10

MAY 2013

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk; John H. Gill, Professor,
NESA, National Defence University, Washington DC; Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Senior Fellow
for South Asia; Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-proliferation and Disarmament
Programme; Brigadier Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare; Antoine Levesques,
Research Analyst, South Asia Programme; Desmond Bowen, Member, UN SecretaryGenerals Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters.

IISS NEWS

SOUTH ASIA

Discussion with Pakistans

Director General
(Analysis), ISI
Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi, Director General (Analysis), Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) Directorate, Pakistan, visited the IISS on 24 April for a private and informal discussion. Pataudis introductory remarks focused on
Pakistans relations with the UK, US, Afghanistan, India and on issues of
counter-terrorism. This was followed by a Q&A session.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury and Major-General Isfandiyar Pataudi

Visit by the National Defence University, Pakistan

As part of the IISS programme of engaging key security actors in South Asia
a delegation from Pakistans National Defence University visited IISS London
on 15 April. Headed by Brigadier Syed Haider Ali Naqvi and Commodore
Baber Bilal Haider, the delegation of 15 officers from all three Pakistani armed
forces ranged in rank from Lieutenant-Colonel to Major-General and RearAdmiral.
IISS experts briefed on the war in Afghanistan, including Indias strategic
approach to the country. There was also a discussion of Irans nuclear programme and its prospective implications for regional security. Both IISS and
the visitors found the exchange of views frank and stimulating, particularly
as Pakistan is a neighbour to both countries.

Delegates at the meeting

Iran Workshop in India

On 4 March, the IISS organised a half-day
workshop on Perspectives on Iran & Regional
Stability in cooperation with the Observer
Research Foundation (ORF). The keynote address
was delivered by Ambassador Latha Reddy,
Deputy National Security Advisor to the Prime
Minister and Secretary, National Security Council
Secretariat (NSCS).
India and Iran have long-standing ties, and
share the same neighbourhood. This workshop
took place at a time when their bilateral relations are being increasingly shaped by the Iranian

Adam Ward, Latha Reddy and ORF Director Sunjoy Joshi

nuclear crisis. To meet its growing energy needs,

India has traditionally depended on Iran as a

one hand, India has the second-largest Shia com-

nuclear issues in the IAEA. At the same time, India

major source of energy. But, in view of US and

munity after Iran and Irans ports provide critical

and Iran continue to maintain high-level political

EU sanctions on Iran, it has begun to decrease

access for Indian goods and trade to Afghanistan,

links. The workshop sessions focused on Irans

this energy dependence. India has also walked a

in addition to energy-security issues. On the other

Nuclear and Missile Challenge and Impact of

diplomatic and political tightrope with Iran. On

hand, India has voted several times against Iran on

Nuclear-Armed Iran on India and the West.

Indian MPs Visit the IISS

The IISS briefed a multi-party group of Indian Members of Parliament
on 18 April 2013. These included Ijyaraj Singh and Hamdullah Sayeed
IISS NEWS

from the Indian National Congress and Yashodhara Raje Scindia and
Prakash Javadekar (National Spokesman) from the Bharatiya Janata
Party.
Discussions focused on Iran and nuclear capability, Afghanistan towards
2015 and beyond, and cyber governance and security.
MAY 2013 | 11

APPOINTMENTS / PALLISER ESSAY PRIZE

Appointments
Steven Simon
Steven Simon was appointed as Executive Director IISSUS and
Corresponding Director IISSMiddle East in January 2013. Steve completed
at the end of December his posting as Senior Director, Middle East and North
Africa at the US National Security Council in the White House where he was
a close adviser to President Obama on many issues concerning the region,

Steven Simon

Dr Jenny Nielsen

Antnio Sampaio

including Egypt and Syria. Steve has worked at RAND and the Council on
Foreign Relations as well as at the US State Department for many years. He

events concerning East Asia, and for conducting research on matters involv-

was previously an Assistant Director and Carol Deane Senior Fellow at the

ing disarmament and the NPT.

IISS. Steven has co-authored a number of important books including The Age
of Sacred Terror: Radical Islams War Against America, The Next Attack: The Failure

Nicholas Payne

of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting it Right and The Sixth Crisis: Iran,

Nicholas Payne takes on the new position of Assistant Editor, The Military

Israel, America and the Rumors of War.

Balance as of 7 January. He was previously Assistant Editor at BBC Books, part

He brings (back) to the IISS policy experience at the highest level and on

of the Random House group.

the most sensitive Middle Eastern issues of the day coupled with a brilliant
Christopher Raggett

scholarly pedigree.
He will regularly travel to the IISSMiddle East office in Bahrain and has

Christopher Raggett joined the IISS on 7 January as Assistant Editor and will

based himself there from mid-February onwards. He will run the IISSUS

work on Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. He was Editorial Officer at the

office, fundraise, guide the Middle Eastern programme and take full part in

British Society for Rheumatology, where in addition to editing he was respon-

all of the Institutes global activities.

sible for maintaining the Rheumatology online database.

Dr Jenny Nielsen

Antnio Sampaio

Dr Jenny Nielsen joined the IISS Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (NPD)

The IISS has increased its work on Latin America with a new staff member,

Programme in February. She previously worked at Wilton Park, most

events and meetings. Antnio Sampaio was recently appointed Research

recently, as a programme manager for the Defence and Security Programme,

Analyst for Latin America, and is now the main point of contact for Latin

after earning her PhD from the University of Southampton (thesis title: US

American issues at the Institute. Antnio has organised the first events of the

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policy and Iran (19691981)). Among other duties,

Latin American programme and written pieces for Survival and the Voices

she is responsible for managing the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

blog. He has also commented on regional developments for media outlets in

Conference on 30 September to 1 October, for organising NPD programme

Brazil, China and the UK.

Palliser Essay Prize 2013

An annual prize in honour of Sir Michael Palliser (19222012)
Former Chairman of the Council and Vice-President of the IISS
The International Institute for Strategic Studies has established the Palliser Essay Prize for the best essay submitted for publication
in Survival on an aspect of European international relations, politics, geo-economics or strategy by an author of any nationality
under the age of 40 at the time of submission.
The 2013 prize will consist of 2,500 and publication of the winning essay in Survival during summer 2013, with a special
mention of the award. Submissions will be reviewed by the Survival editorial team and a shortlist will be sent to a jury chosen
by the Chairman of the Trustees, Chairman of the Council and Director-General of the Institute.
Deadline for submission: 30 August 2013
E-mail for submission or queries: palliserprize@iiss.org
Essays of 6,0008,000 words in length should be prepared in
accordance with the Survival submissions guidelines, available
at http://www.iiss.org/publications/survival/information-forauthors/ or in any issue of the journal. Submissions must not
have been previously published, or be under consideration

12

MAY 2013

by another publication. The winning essay will be edited

to conform to IISS house style and Survivals standards and
requirements. The author will be asked to assign copyright to
the IISS.
The winner will be notified by letter no later than 22
November 2013. Other submissions may be considered for
publication through the normal editorial review process.

IISS NEWS

RUSSIA AND EURASIA

A Russian Perspective on
the Syria Crisis

USRussia Relations
On 17 January, Dr Samuel Charap gave his inaugural lecture titled USRussia
Relations in Obamas Second Term: Reflections on the Reset and Prospects

On 14 January, the IISS Russia

for the Future at IISSUS. Charap offered four observations on this key bilat-

and

eral relationship based on experience working in the US State Department.

Eurasia

programme

hosted

Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the

Firstly, he noted that both sides tend to assess the relationship through the

Presidium of the Council on Foreign

deliverables it produces. The use of deliverables as a gauge of bilateral ties

and Defense Policy (SVOP) and

reveals something about the relationship itself, he argued. When the sides are not

Editor-in-Chief of the Councils jour-

working on or talking about deliverables, they have to grapple with the relation-

nal, Russia in Global Affairs, at IISSUS

ship itself, and neither side (for different reasons) is satisfied with it. Secondly,

for an off-the-record roundtable dis-

the 20092011 time frame (the reset period) was perhaps the most productive

cussion titled A Russian Perspective

period of cooperation between the two countries since the Soviet Unions col-

on the Syria Crisis. Lukyanov pre-

lapse, and that this was the result of the change of administrations in Washington.

sented his analysis of current Russian

Thirdly, the relationship had by any measure deteriorated significantly

policy and prospects for USRussia

over the past year and could well get worse. Although the reset undeniably

cooperation on this issue to a high-level audience. Dr Samuel Charap, IISS

produced important results, it did not alter the fundamental problems of the

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, chaired the meeting.

relationship, Charap explained. His final observation related to one of the

Fyodor Lukyanov

hypotheses that guided the Obama administrations policy shift on Russia:

The Reset for Europe

that increasing the number of deliverables and broadening the relationship

would allow the two countries to at least make progress if not reach resolution on their long-standing disagreements. This hypothesis has been falsified
by recent events. Charap ended his discussion on a cautiously positive note,

On 6 February, Dr Samuel Charap

saying relations were unlikely to return to the lows of the Bush era. The US

gave his first talk as IISS Senior Fellow

and Russia had strong incentives to cooperate on the issue of Afghanistan,

for Russia and Eurasia at Arundel

investment and trade, and non-proliferation. This meeting was chaired by

House, London on the implications of

Steven Simon, Executive Director of IISSUS and Corresponding Director

the reset for Europe.

IISSME. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/1000kzU.

The US reset towards Russia

Russian Economy

during the first Obama administration had created dividends for

European security, even if this positive effect was underappreciated.
Charap believed it was underappreci-

On 26 March, the IISS Russia and

Dr Samuel Charap

Eurasia programme hosted Martin

ated in large part because US officials

Gilman, Director of the Centre for

did not make a compelling argument for it. In describing the reset in their

Advanced Studies of the Higher

public remarks on European security, administration officials often preemp-

School of Economics (Moscow), for

tively apologised for it.

a discussion meeting at IISSUS. He

Charap said that increased cooperation between Moscow and

gave a macroeconomists take on

Washington after President Obama announced his intention to improve ties

some of the myths about the Russian

in 2009 had significantly reduced tensions between Russia and the West.

economy that seemed to have taken

This alleviated perhaps the gravest threat to European security: namely, out-

on a life of their own and become the conventional wisdom. Russia, probably

right confrontation with Russia. Russian behaviour toward Europe during

more than any other emerging market, seems to elicit analysis that is not fully,

the 20092011 period, though far from uniform across issues and among

and sometimes not even partially, borne out by the facts. Gilman presented

different countries, was significantly more conciliatory than previous years.

Russian economic trends in a comparative framework that challenged a few

The rapprochement between Russia and Poland was one example, along

of the most pervasive myths, including the notions that Russia doesnt belong

with the delineation of the maritime border between Russia and Norway, a

in the BRICS grouping and that all Russias economic success is due to oil.

negotiation that had gone nowhere for 30 years until 2010. This gave Europe

He noted that underlying macro balances in Russia are clearly among the

a net security gain, Charap argued.

healthiest on the planet. Even after the global financial crisis, foreign exchange

Martin Gilman

This was in addition to the global security gains that resulted from joint

reserves are still the 3rd largest in the world; the balance of payments is in

efforts on Iran, Afghanistan and in reducing nuclear weapons, after periods of

surplus; the budget is balanced; growth is slowing, but would still be the envy

neglect and unsuccessful attempts to cooperate with Russia under President

of many of its neighbours; and the government doesnt have any debt, house-

George W. Bush.

holds have little debt, and enterprises have deleveraged. Gilman concluded

Charap noted that the reset also had a significant positive impact on intraNATO cohesion on Russia-related issues.
This meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch
the discussion at http://bit.ly/12oKbUh.
IISS NEWS

that Russia does face significant economic risks, but that these are generally
more related to politics than to economics. Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior
Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, chaired this meeting. Watch the discussion and
download a PDF of Gilmans presentation at http://bit.ly/18FmWZH.
MAY 2013 | 13

IISSUS

The French Intervention

in Mali

Franois Delattre

Israels Periphery Doctrine

On 2 May, Yossi Alpher, co-editor of The Bitterlemons Guide to the Arab Peace
Initiative, spoke at IISSUS about the evolution of Israels periphery doctrine,

On 14 February, Franois Delattre,

its strategy of counterbalancing hostility from Arab states by forging part-

Ambassador of the French Republic

nerships with non-Arab countries and minorities in the region. The strategic

to the United States, spoke on the

importance of the periphery doctrine began to wane in the late 1970s, Alpher

French intervention in Mali at an

noted, with the fall of the Shah of Iran and Israels peace treaty with Egypt,

IISSUS Ambassadors Forum discus-

but has recently resurfaced as part of Israels grand strategy in response to the

sion meeting. Ambassador Delattre

Arab revolutions and rising Islamism in the region. In Israels second imple-

discussed the French rationale for

mentation of this strategy, Alpher emphasised the need to improve upon past

intervention, their successes and

precedent by not only strengthening ties with periphery countries such as

areas for improvement, and the pros-

Azerbaijan, Greece, Bulgaria and Ethiopia, but also simultaneously engaging

pects for the future of Mali. He also

with its Arab neighbours. Alpher argued that these periphery partnerships

touched on the importance of the

should be leveraged to improve relations with Arab states and not become an

USFrance relationship for encourag-

impediment to Israel making a serious effort at negotiating a two-state solu-

ing stability in the Sahel. Randy Bell,

tion. Steven Simon, Executive Director, IISSUS and Corresponding Director,

Managing Director, IISSUS, moderated the discussion.

IISSMiddle East moderated the discussion.

Irans Domestic Politics

the nuclear negotiations. She noted that because the nuclear issue was an

Dina Esfandiary discussed the link between Irans domestic politics and
extension of domestic politicking in Iran and the Supreme Leader did not
want current President Ahmadinejad to receive credit for this development, a
deal was unlikely to happen before the elections. However, after the elections,
a new president would allow the Supreme Leader to channel new initiatives,
such as increased negotiations on the nuclear issue.
Yasmin Alem said that internal divisions among the Iranian political elite
and polarisation in the Iranian political system were growing more intense in

(lr): Samuel Charap, Dina Esfandiary, Yasmin Alem and Afshon Ostovar

the run-up to the elections. Differing from her fellow panellists, Alem stated
that she believed progress in nuclear negotiations was possible during the

On 5 April, IISSUS held a panel discussion on how Irans domestic poli-

elections because economic assurances were very valuable to the regime.

tics and the upcoming elections would influence future negotiations on its

Afshon Ostovar discussed the role of the security forces in Irans domes-

nuclear programme. Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate in the IISS Non-

tic politics. The Iranian security services would be influential before, during

proliferation and Disarmament Programme; Yasmin Alem, author of Duality

and after elections because of their propaganda against certain candidates,

by Design: The Iranian Electoral System; and Afshon Ostovar, Middle East and

security enforcement, and their role behind the scenes as a pillar of the

Iran Analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, spoke on the panel. Samuel

Iranian regime. Ostovar noted that the nuclear issue fell under the domain

Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, moderated the discussion.

of the Supreme Leader and the security forces, rather than the president.

The panel discussed the state of Irans domestic politics, the likely out-

Given this, he did not expect the elections to change the Iranian negotiating

comes of the upcoming elections and the opportunities presented by Irans

changing political landscape for nuclear negotiations.

stance.
Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/10nfSxh.

East Asias Maritime Disputes and the US Rebalance

On 13 December, IISSUS hosted Christian Le Mire, IISS Senior Fellow for

Ratner outlined five features of the US rebalance linked to maritime

Maritime Security and Naval Forces; Admiral Michael McDevitt, Senior Fellow

disputes: 1) a message of continuity; 2) greater engagement with allies; 3)

at the Center for Naval Analyses; and Dr Ely Ratner, Fellow and Deputy

emphasis on non-security tools; 4) insulation from budgetary constraints; and

Director of the Asia-Pacific Program at the Center for New American Security;

5) a focus on the question how can the US effectively reconcile [these factors]

for a discussion of East Asias maritime disputes and the US rebalance.

while maintaining stable relations with China?

Le Mire said that Chinas assertiveness was an important factor in the

McDevitt said that China was creating a strategy of anti-access/area

intensifying disputes. A number of Asian states have returned to the sea

denial (A2AD) to keep US forces far from Chinese interests. In response,

and are using military and paramilitary forces to enforce sovereignty claims.

the US was developing the AirSea Battle concept. In the meantime, the

When coupled with growing nationalism, maritime disputes were framed in

US has focused on amphibious warfare capabilities, increasing its foot-

both a strategic and an emotional context that has led to increased competi-

print in Southeast Asia, and developing inter-operation capabilities with

tion.

allies.

14

MAY 2013

IISS NEWS

IISSUS

US Outer Space Diplomacy

On 29 March, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State

As a key example of the Obama administra-

for Space and Defense Policy Frank Rose delivered

tions emphasis on international engagement on

an address in the IISSUS Policy Makers Series

these critical issues, Rose highlighted US work

about US priorities for international space diplo-

with the European Union and other states in

macy during President Obamas second term in

developing the International Code of Conduct

office.

for Outer Space Activities. Rose also noted that

Rose cautioned that as the number of states

the US government in the last six months had

and private firms operating in outer space has

seen a greater willingness from China to engage

increased, so have hazards, including the growing

on space-security issues. Both countries had a

quantity of space debris or junk. Every spacefar-

long-term interest in maintaining the stability of

ing nation had an interest in mitigating the risk

the space environment, especially limiting the cre-

from space debris, Rose asserted, and the United

ation of long-lived space debris, Rose said. It is

... the United States believes it is very vital that we

States was working both bilaterally and in multi-

important that we discuss these issues bilaterally

have this dialogue.

lateral forums to engage other states in advancing

in order to prevent misperceptions and miscalcu-

Dr Samuel Charap, IISS Senior Fellow for

space sustainability and security as well as trans-

lations I think China is coming to the view as

Russia and Eurasia, chaired this meeting. Watch

parency in space operations.

well that its important to engage on these issues

the discussion at http://bit.ly/YGvzPB.

Samuel Charap and Frank Rose

North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?

April. Yet, according to Fitzpatrick, changing the

tently breached. The United States could not offer

current batch of leadership in North Korea was

an adequate substitute for what North Korea per-

insufficient. A true solution to the North Korean

ceives as the benefits of nuclear weapons: survival

problem would be the unification of North

and a way to achieve regional dominance.

Fitzpatrick acknowledged that the US must

and South Korea as a democratic republic that

remember lessons of recent regime-change failures:

embraced free enterprise.

According to Fitzpatrick, diplomatic engage-

although regime change must come from within,

ment with North Korea was futile. Firstly, North

external pressure and activity may help trigger

Korea would not exchange its nuclear programme

internal unrest. The flow of information into North

for economic and political gains. The North Korean

Korea from the outside should be increased. North

regime sees its nuclear weapons programme as

Koreas human-rights record should no longer be

essential to its self-preservation and is the only

swept under the rug. Economic sanctions should

significant achievement about which it can boast.

also be applied, including a mandate to check all

Regime change in North Korea is the only viable

Secondly, negotiations with North Korea were

North Korean shipments for contraband.

option to eliminate the North Korean nuclear

hollow, Fitzpatrick said. North Koreas original

This meeting was chaired by Steven Simon,

threat, Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS Director of the Non-

intent for its nuclear programme was always to

Executive Director, IISSUS, and Corresponding

proliferation and Disarmament Programme, said

obtain nuclear weapons. Furthermore, diplomatic

Director, IISSMiddle East. Watch the discussion

at a roundtable discussion held at IISSUS on 11

breakthroughs and agreements have been consis-

at http://bit.ly/17Z41YG.

Mark Fitzpatrick

The US and the Middle

East in an Era of
Uncertainty

IISSUS Members Reception

On 27 February, Steven Simon, Executive Director of IISSUS and

Development and Experimentation

Corresponding Director, IISSMiddle East, spoke on the US role in the

at the US Armys Training and

Middle East in an era of budgetary uncertainty. Simon drew on his

Doctrine

recent experience as Senior Director for Middle East and North Africa

from the IISS Defence and Military

on President Obamas National Security Staff in discussing changing

Analysis

regional dynamics. The event was moderated by Bart Friedman, Board

spoke to IISS members about the

Member, US Friends of The IISS. Steven Simon also discussed this topic at

future of the US Army under budget-

Arundel House, London on 22 February.

ary limitations.

IISS NEWS

On 20 March, IISSUS hosted a

members reception with General
H R McMaster, IISS Consulting
Senior Fellow and Chief of Concept

Command,
Programme.

and

staff

McMaster

H R McMaster

MAY 2013 | 15

IISS FULLER TON FORUM

Inaugural IISS Fullerton Forum: The Shangri-La Dialogue

Sherpa Meeting

Dr John Chipman

Dr Ng Eng Hen

The inaugural IISS Fullerton Forum took place in Singapore from 1719

Ng examined a second source of potential instability: the impact and

February. Intended as an inter-sessional meeting forming an integral part

stress due to deeper socio-demographic trends including greater polari-

of the expanded IISS Shangri-La Dialogue process, the 58 delegates to the

sation within and across countries as a result of economic inequality,

Fullerton Forum included governmental representatives (both civilian and

communalism, religious extremism and nationalism. The region also had to

military) from Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, France, India, Indonesia,

address transnational and non-traditional challenges, such as climate change

Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines,

and natural disasters, that would be too big for countries to solve individu-

Singapore, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam.

ally. In conclusion, he proposed that regional and global frameworks for

China, Japan and the United States were all well-represented. Approximately

governance be refreshed or renewed in order to optimise collaboration

one-third of the delegates were from research institutes and universities in

and decision-making between countries. Such frameworks had to be open

key participant countries.

and inclusive, based on the rule of law, and must deliver real results. The

Singapores Minister for Defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, delivered the key-

ADMM-Plus with its Expert Working groups, together with platforms such

note address on Potential Threats to Regional Stability in Asia. In his

as the Fullerton Forum and Shangri-La Dialogue, have all played significant

prefatory remarks, Ng noted that the Shangri-La Dialogue had estab-

and complementary roles in strengthening the regional security architecture,

lished itself as the foremost defence and security conference in the

he said.

Asia-Pacific, and that the Dialogue had delivered important outcomes.

Debate in the Forums main sessions focused on inter-state security prob-

The minister highlighted what he considered the main reasons for Asias

lems, and national delegations conducted numerous bilateral meetings on the

economic success over the last two decades but acknowledged that there

sidelines of the Forum. The IISS will organise a second event in the series in

were potential threats to regional stability and growth that the Fullerton

early 2014.

Forum delegates could think about and help solve. As well as the tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and on the Korean

A full transcript and video of Ng Eng Hens keynote address are available
at http://bit.ly/16mczKX.

peninsula, Ng discussed the challenges arising from fundamental shifts

in the geopolitical landscape, notably in terms of evolving USChina
relations. According to the defence minister the bilateral relationship
must widen its areas of mutual interest to achieve better cooperation and
accommodation.
Delegates at the first session

16

MAY 2013

Delegates at the second session

IISS NEWS

IISSFULLER TON LEC TURE / IISSASIA

Fullerton Lecture Europe

at a Crossroads: The Path
Towards Fresh Growth
On 8 February, Germanys Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr Guido Westerwelle,
spoke on the future of the EU and Europes relations with Asia in the 8th
Fullerton Lecture. According to Westerwelle, the doomsayers who predicted the collapse of the euro and the European Union were wrong at both
the economic and political levels: troubled eurozone countries had embarked
on a remarkable path of reform, while European partners had created the
space and time for reform. More broadly, European leaders believed in
their ability to learn from setbacks as well as successes. The minister said
that at its heart, the EU is the guarantor of peace on the European continent.
The EU also assured a strong European voice in a world where the centre of

Dr Guido Westerwelle

gravity is moving East. European integration, Westerwelle explained, was

our answer to the globalisation of our world. Europes global contribution

There was a need for Europe and Asia jointly to address common challenges

goes beyond trade, technology and finance to advocacy for a rules-based

including climate change, financial market stability, and maritime security.

international order in the security sphere, including non-proliferation and

The minister outlined the EUs progress towards free trade agreements in

disarmament.

Southeast Asia, and elsewhere in Asia, but also emphasised the importance

Moving to a regional focus, Westerwelle pointed out that Europe

of a comprehensive agreement with the United States on a transatlantic

remains a key partner for Asia. Europe is the biggest investor in Asia, and

single market. In conclusion, the minister said Germany and the EU hoped

vice versa; the EU is also Asias largest trading partner. Germany plays a

Asia as a future partner would be a region characterised by close political

key role in economic relations between Europe and Asia. Germany is push-

cooperation and not held back in its enormous potential by nationalist sen-

ing for deeper and more comprehensive European political engagement

timent and confrontation.

with Asia, including ASEAN. The minister highlighted the need to map
out the path towards the EUs active participation in the East Asia Summit.

This lecture took place at the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore and is available to
watch at http://bit.ly/ZTLQS4.

Next Steps in Australia

Indonesia Defence Relations
On 5 April, Dr Ben Schreer from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute
spoke at a IISSAsia seminar on AustraliaIndonesia defence relations. Dr
Schreer emphasised that Australia has long had an ambivalent defence relationship with its Indonesian neighbour, almost including a military conflict
over East Timor in 1999. However, Indonesias current strategic trajectory
and the changing balance of power in Southeast Asia require Australia to
re-evaluate its defence policy towards its far larger neighbour. Australian
policymakers recognise that it is now in Canberras strategic interest
actively to support Indonesias force modernisation process. Dr Schreer discussed the opportunities for, and obstacles to, a true AustralianIndonesian
strategic partnership and what such a partnership might mean for
Southeast Asia.

Dr Ben Schreer

IISSAsia Roundtable
Meeting: Malcolm Cook

The Shangri-La Dialogue

On 14 March, Professor Malcolm Cook of Flinders University addressed a

MaySunday 02 June 2013 in Singapore. Nguyen Tan Dzung, Prime

roundtable gathering at IISSAsia on the theme of Chinese policy in relation

Minister of Vietnam, will deliver the keynote address.

The 12th IISS Asia Security Summit will take place from Friday 31

to the East China Sea and South China Sea disputes.

IISS NEWS

MAY 2013 | 17

IISSOBER OI LEC TURE / IISSMIDDLE EAST

IISSOberoi Lecture Dr Heizo Takenaka on Abenomics

followed by a fiscal consolidation in the mid-term. The third element of the

policy package is an ambitious growth strategy.
But Takenaka admitted there were two different schools of thought on
what Japans growth strategy should be. One suggested promoting small
government and deregulation so that the private sector had a free hand. The
other recommended adopting a state-led industrial strategy. Which path the
Abe administration will take was as yet unclear.
So far, the markets had loved the idea of this new three-pronged policy,
Dr Heizo Takenaka

Takenaka said. The Tokyo stock market had leapt 30% in the past three
months, and Abes government had a 70% public-approval rating (compared

Since he took office at the end of 2012, Japans new Prime Minister Shinzo

to its predecessors 20%).

Abe has launched an aggressive monetary, fiscal and growth policy, in an

However, Abe had come in for some criticism from abroad for allowing

all-out attempt to revive his countrys moribund economy. After more than

the yen to depreciate by about 15% against the US dollar since January. While

20 years of deflation in Japan, the bold Abenomics package is being keenly

this depreciation benefitted Japanese exporters, its impact on foreign competi-

watched around the world, to see what effect it will have on the Asian and

tors was negative.

global economies. On 25 March, at the third IISSOberoi Lecture, one of

Takenaka also highlighted the political uncertainty in Japan that might

Abes leading economic advisers, Dr Heizo Takenaka, discussed the policy

derail the success of Abenomics. He pointed to the forthcoming election

details.

in the upper house of parliament this July. Abes ruling Liberal Democratic

Speaking in Mumbai, Takenaka outlined three elements or arrows of

Party of Japan (LDP) lacked a majority in the upper house to match its lead in

Abenomics. The first is a monetary expansion policy designed to conquer

the lower, Takenaka said. However, it was vital for him to win the July elec-

deflation. As part of this, the Bank of Japan has announced a doubling of

tion if he were to establish a lasting cabinet.

its inflation target to 2%. The second plank of Abenomics is a flexible fiscal
policy, involving an already announced fiscal stimulus in the short term,

This meeting was chaired by Dr Sanjaya Baru, IISS Director for Geoeconomics and Strategy. Watch the lecture at http://bit.ly/13dxCJe.

Is the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty in

Danger?
On 6 March, Hans Blix visited IISSMiddle East to discuss his decades
of experience navigating the tempestuous waters of the nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT). Blix warned of the risk of a potential domino
effect emulating from the nuclear programmes in Iran and North Korea,
pushing other states to pursue nuclear capabilities. However, he made it

Hans Blix and Michael Elleman

clear that going to war with Iran could have disastrous consequences and
an attack could create sympathy and rally public support for the current

Hans Blix, Director-General Emeritus of the IAEA and the Executive

regime. Blix explained that the world often underestimated Irans national

Chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission

pride and desire for self-respect in the international community. Ultimately,

(UNMOVIC) for Iraq between 2000 and 2003, has chaired the Weapons of

it was the regions responsibility to create a zone free of weapons of mass

Mass Destruction Commission since it was established in 2004, and is also

destruction, even though past attempts to bring relevant regional actors

Head of the Advisory Board for the United Arab Emirates Nuclear Pro-

together had not been successful due to regional mistrust and dissatisfac-

gramme in 2010.

tion with the NPT. Despite these challenges, Blix declared that diplomacy

The IISS Global Perspectives Series is a regular forum at IISSMiddle

is not yet dead. In the short term he encouraged an interim agreement with

East drawing on the full authority and reach of IISS expertise to deliver facts

Iran, such as ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, while

and analysis on important strategic issues. This meeting was moderated by

in the long term actors would need to become much more imaginative to

Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Regional Security Cooperation, IISS

ease regional tension.

Middle East. It is available to watch at http://bit.ly/ZNulPT.

18

MAY 2013

IISS NEWS

IISSMIDDLE EAST / CYBER SECURIT Y

Geopolitics Key to
Converging Trade Interests
Pascal Lamy, the Director General of the World Trade Organisation
addressed an audience of Indian businessmen and policymakers on Putting
Geopolitics Back at the Trade table on 29 January 2013. Lamy reflected on
the importance of economic growth as a tool for managing geopolitical
tension, and appealed for a return to geostrategic thinking about an international policy environment that supports growth. He said the deadlock in the
WTO Doha Round was not due to the large membership, as it was widely
believed, but due to disagreement among a small handful of advanced
and emerging economies and was geopolitical in nature. He outlined three

(lr): Kapil Chopra, President, The Oberoi Group; Pascal Lamy and Dr Sanjaya Baru

geopolitical principles which could counter the stalemate in negotiations:

an acceptance by emerging countries to align their level of international

He also acknowledged the need to promote growth, increase productive

commitments to those of advanced economies; recognition by advanced

capacity, and trade as key aspects of the United Nations post-2015 develop-

economies that emerging countries deserve long transition periods to con-

ment agenda.

verge towards common commitments; and finally for the poorest countries,

This meeting took place at the Oberoi Hotel, New Delhi. More informa-

less concern about their level of commitments and more about how to help

tion on the forum and a full transcript of Pascal Lamys speech is available at

them build the capacity to be active members of the international family.

http://bit.ly/18X1igM.

Cyber Security Programme

took almost two weeks to recover from the damage. Then US Secretary

The IISSMiddle East office has initiated several events addressing global

virus, dubbed Shamoon, severely affected the operations of the company.

cyber security. The research and lectures on cyber security emanating from

Protecting petroleum operations in Saudi Arabia from physical attacks

the Institute could not be more imperative as US Secretary of Defense Chuck

has been a decades-long priority for Riyadh and Washington. Even a

Hagel deemed cyber attacks the great threat to our security economic secu-

partial disruption of production facilities in the country would have an

rity, political security, diplomatic security, military security that confronts

immediate influence on oil supplies and prices, impacting the global

us.

economy.

of Defense, Leon Panetta, described the incident as creating tremendous

concern. Although the attack did not result in an oil spill or explosion, the

On 27 February 2013, IISSMiddle East held a discussion meeting with

Tikk-Ringas presented on legal aspects of international cyber security at

Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Security, on the attacks

Georgetown Universitys International Engagement on Cyber conference on

on the computer network of Saudi Aramco in August 2012, infecting up to

10 April and moderated a session on regulatory challenges to international

30,000 of its Windows-based machines.

information security at 7th International Forum on Information Security in

Despite its resources as Saudi Arabias national oil and gas firm, Aramco

Cyber Security

Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.

and sovereign interests. Given the global design of information infrastructure

and diverging national capabilities in developing and using ICTs, however,
governments are struggling to formulate a grand strategy for mitigating cyber
threats. The panellists offered suggestions for how governments might better
manage this growing problem.
James Lewis observed that regional and global negotiations to manage
cyberspace stability, cyber conflict, and cyber-related trade issues are ongoing but under-publicised and often irrelevant. He called for sharpening
research to help policymakers and the public better think through the truly
difficult problems of insecurity in cyberspace. Christopher Spirito followed
up on Lewiss remarks by noting that we need more information-sharing

(lr): Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, Dr James Lewis, Christopher Spirito and Rafal Rohozinski

about attacks and vulnerabilities in order to develop a common language of

cyber security, a set of best practices to reduce vulnerabilities, and a better

On 12 April, IISSUS hosted a panel discussion on How to be Strategic

understanding of the tools used by attackers. Rafal Rohozinski added that

About Cyber Security with Dr James Lewis, Senior Fellow and Director of

Internet norms of openness and multi-stakeholder governance that the West

the Technology and Public Policy Program at CSIS; Rafal Rohozinski, CEO of

is promoting are often at odds with cyber-security goals of stability and trade

The SecDev Group; and Christopher Spirito, International Cyber Lead at the

security.

MITRE Corporation. Cyber security has evolved into a highly complex competition between states, involving both their national security prerogatives
IISS NEWS

This discussion was moderated by Dr Eneken Tikk-Ringas, IISS Senior

Fellow for Cyber Security. Watch the discussion at http://bit.ly/ZU4WHK.
MAY 2013 | 19

PUBLICATIONS

Press Launch The Military Balance 2013

In the Asia-Pacific, potential flashpoints and
smouldering conflicts continued to threaten
peace and stability. Chipman discussed how
continuing tensions in the South China Sea have
unnerved several Southeast Asian governments,
particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, further
motivating attempts to improve their military
capabilities. The recent Adelphi book Regional
Disorder: The South China Sea Disputes analyses
these issues.
Chipman assessed Chinas emergence as a
regional competitor in both economic and military
terms. China now spends more on defence than
neighbouring Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

IISS experts prepare to answer questions from the media

combined. If the 15% average annual increases

Western nations struggle with shrinking defence

its renowned military data sets with a full range of

in Chinas official defence spending seen over

budgets, military spending in Asia continues to

country capability summaries.

the past decade continued into the medium term,

grow, and the ramifications of the Arab Spring

At the press launch, Dr John Chipman discussed

Chinese defence outlays could rival US base

continue to be felt from Syria to Mali all of

the strategic consequences of the Arab Spring and

defence-budget spending by 2025. If additional

these subjects featured in the press launch of The

in particular the civil war in Syria. He assessed the

elements of military spending widely believed

Military Balance 2013, the annual assessment of

Syrian armys strength alongside growing support

to be excluded from the official PLA budget are

global military capabilities and defence economics

for the rebels. The sheer number of rebel groups,

included, convergence could occur in 2023, just a

from the IISS.

their aims, and the presence of jihadists were key

decade away.

On 14 March, Dr John Chipman, IISS Director-

concerns. He noted that there was a considerable

In concluding remarks, Chipman described The

General and Chief Executive, introduced the book

risk that a rapid end to the conflict would likely be

Military Balance 2013 as rich in detail and broad in

and James Hackett, Editor, The Military Balance,

as destabilising as its prolongation.

its analytical reach. Over the next decade, under-

Reflecting the subdued global economic cli-

standing how the newly rich acquire genuinely

The Military Balance 2013 includes analyti-

mate, Chipman explained how total global defence

important military capacities, and how long it

cal essays on global trends in defence economics,

spending actually fell in real terms in 2012 for a

takes for some established powers to lose certain

Europes defence industries, conflict in Afghanistan

second year running. However, real increases were

key, especially expeditionary, abilities, would be

and Syria, and anti-access/area denial. The trends

seen in the Middle East and North Africa, Russia

an important task for all defence and strategic ana-

in defence capability section consists of segments

and Eurasia, Latin America and in Asia, while real

lysts, he said.

on ISR, counter-IED, submarine capabilities and,

declines were seen in North America and Europe.

The full press statement is available to read

for the air domain, hypersonic technology. The

It had to be remembered, however, that the defence

at http://bit.ly/17vtMzw. Watch the press launch

book contains more written analysis of national

budget of the United States equals that of the next

at http://bit.ly/1012B9r. The Military Balance 2013

defence policies and defence economics, more

14 nations combined and the United States still

was also launched at the National Press Club in

graphics, maps and tables and now complements

intends to remain engaged globally, Chipman said.

Washington DC on 20 March.

and a panel of IISS experts answered questions.

IISS Website
The IISS has launched a new website as the first stage of a project to give
members and users much-improved access to digitised content. The redesigned home page features a rotating carousel highlighting IISS events and
publications, and will also include more blog posts. The new site, which has a
much-improved search facility, is the result of months of work by an IISS team
working with Pentia, the Danish contractor.
IISS members have been issued with new passwords. Usernames remain
the same as for the old site. We apologise for any confusion that the changeover may have caused. We have made changes to the site to make the login
process clearer. There is no need for members to update their membership
details, unless they wish to do so.
If members or users experience any problems or would like to provide
feedback on the site, please email sales@iiss.org or telephone +44 20 7379 7676.
20

MAY 2013

IISS NEWS