Global Economics & Markets Research

Singapore Company Reg No. 193500026Z

Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview
HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD

The key US data highlight of this week is todays (6 Mar) February

US Labor market report which includes the widely watched nonfarm payrolls data. Prior to that, we had the mid-weeks ADP employment numbers (4 Mar) which came in at a lower job creation of 212k
in February (from 219k in January, more or less in line with the forecast
of 210k). Markets are now expecting a lower 235k addition to nonfarm
payrolls (from Januarys 257k increase) while unemployment rate is
expected to edge lower to 5.6%, down from 5.7% in January, according to the latest Bloomberg consensus forecast (as of 5 March 2015).
Bad weather may be a cause for hiring concerns in the month and we
believe that there may be room for downside surprise, so unexpectedly weak payrolls today may ease concerns about Fed interest rate
normalization coming in earlier rather than later. In addition, January
payrolls report showed wage growth of 0.5%m/m, the biggest gain in
average hourly earnings since 2008, so expectations have been pared
lower to 0.2%m/m, keeping the y/y increase of wages unchanged at
2.2%y/y. Any disappointments in wage growth will similarly dampen
early rate hike expectations. Do note that weather has been bad in
many parts of US hit by heavy snowfall on Thursday (5 Mar). Should the
weather continue to be bad and keep US government agencies closed
or delay their opening on Friday (6 Mar), the US Labor Department has
said it will make every effort to put the data on its website. So there
may be delays in the jobs data release timing. On Friday, we will also
get the very important January US trade balance data (where markets are looking for a significant narrowing of the deficit to US$41.2bn
from US$46.6bn in December) and the January consumer credit data.
Elsewhere in the developed economies, we have Japan prelim January
leading & coincident indices, Eurozone final print for 4Q 2014 GDP
& details, German January industrial production, France January trade
balance and French January budget balance data but attention will
likely stay on the US jobs report.

The key focus for the financial markets yesterday was the European
Central Bank (ECB). As expected, the ECB left all key rates unchanged,
(Refi rate at 0.05%, deposit rate at -0.2%, and lending rate at 0.3%.)
But the focus was on the ECB QE programme details, including the QE
purchasing government bonds programme to begin on Monday (on
9 March 2015) and will continue until September 2016. The purchases will continue until inflation is in line with objectives (so it could be
more open-ended than what we initially expect). Purchases will total
60 billion per month as previously announced but the new details are
that the ECB will purchase debt with negative yields, so long as those
yields are not below the ECB deposit rate at time of purchase (currently
at -0.2%). ECB will also only buy in the secondary market and will not
buy more than 25% share of any one issue. The purchased debt will be
those with remaining maturity between 2 and 30 years only.

And ECB president Mario Draghi seems very optimistic that his quantitative-easing program will restore the 19-nation euro bloc to growth
(before it even starts). The ECB staff projects that the Eurozone economies will grow by 1.5% in 2015 (up from 1% in previous estimate), and

Jimmy Koh
Head of Research
(65) 6539 3545
Jimmy.KohCT@UOBgroup.com
Alvin Liew
Senior Global Economist
(65) 6539 8930
Alvin.LiewTS@UOBgroup.com
Lee Sue Ann
Treasury Economist
(65) 6539 3549
Lee.SueAnn@UOBgroup.com
Suan Teck Kin, CFA
Senior Asian Economist
(65) 6539 3922
Suan.TeckKin@UOBgroup.com
Ho Woei Chen
Asian Economist
(65) 6539 3948
Ho.WoeiChen@UOBgroup.com
Francis Tan
Asian Economist
(65) 6539 3923
Francis.TanTT@UOBgroup.com
Quek Ser Leang
Market Strategist
(65) 6539 8993
Quek.SerLeang@UOBgroup.com

CONTENT

Highlights Ahead
Central Bank Outlook
FX Intraday Views
FX
SGS
Equities
US Treasuries
Commodities
Economic News & Data

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Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com

Page 

Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

improve further to 1.9% in 2017 (from 1.5% in previous estimate) while 2017 growth is set at 2.1%
(Eurozone has not grown more than 2% since 2007). Meanwhile, prices are now expected to stay
flat (0%) in 2015 from 0.7% (revised due to oil prices) while it raises 2016 inflation to 1.5% (from
1.3% due to expected QE program effects) and set 2017 inflation at 1.8% (near target of just under
2%, a level not seen since early 2012.)

On Thursday (5 Mar), the US stock markets ended the 2-day losing streak with a slight rebound after investors were buoyed by the ECB QE details as they awaited the US February jobs report. The
US dollar was broadly stronger but the key loser was the euro which dropped below 1.10 for the
first time since September 2003 after the ECB released details on its own sovereign bond buying
programme. Meanwhile, US Treasury prices rose in tandem with its counterparts in Eurozone as
investors were re-invigorated by the ECB QE programme details, with the German 10-year Bund
yield settling near a new record low at 0.348%. The US & global crude oil prices declined again
after investors re-focused on the ever bludgeoning US crude inventories and the US EIA also reported an unexpected increase in gasoline supplies.

Relatively thin data releases in Asia today (Fri, 6 Mar), with Malaysia external trade for Jan due
at 12pm, which is expected to see exports rising 1.8%y/y vs. 2.7% in Dec, and trade balance dropping to MYR6.42bn from MYR9.2bn in the preceding month. Market focus will then turn to the US
nonfarm payroll report at 930pm.

CENTRAL BANK OUTLOOK

After the close of US markets on Thursday (5 Mar), the US Fed Reserve released its latest annual bank stress test results which showed that all the 31 big banks subjected to a stress test
have sufficient capital to absorb losses during a sharp and prolonged economic downturn,
the first time no firm fell below any of the main capital thresholds since the Fed Reserve started
stress tests in 2009. While that gives hopes that the banks will soon get permission to return profits to investors via higher dividends or share buy-back, there is still a second set of tests results
due to be released next week on 11 March, where the Fed will take into account the companies
requested capital distributions and other measures, requiring they leave banks above a minimum
Tier-1 common ratio of 5 percent over nine quarters in harsh economic scenarios.

And as expected, the Bank of England (BOE) kept key rates unchanged.

RBA Deputy Governor Lowe repeated on Friday (6 Mar) that further easing from the central bank
may be appropriate in the period ahead.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams (voter in 2015 FOMC) will talk about the US economic outlook in Hawaii on late Thursday (5 Mar).

FX INTRADAY VIEWS

USD/SGD: 1.3710
The anticipated USD strength exceeded our expectation as it moved above the 1.3700 resistance
to reach an overnight high of 1.3718. Despite overbought conditions, it is too early to expect a top
just yet even though any further USD strength will likely be at a slower pace. Another leg higher to
test the 1.3730 resistance is likely and only a break below 1.3680 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

EUR/USD: 1.1030
In line with expectations, EUR rebounded to 1.1110 (high of 1.1113) but the subsequent downmove from the high exceeded the 1.1030 target by a wide margin (low of 1.0986). Despite the
rebound from the low, is it unlikely that a low is in place. Allow for the current rebound to extend
to 1.1060 but 1.1095/00 is expected to cap for a retest of the overnight low.

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Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

GBP/USD: 1.5250
The overnight low of 1.5215 was just shy of the target indicated at 1.5210 yesterday. The downward momentum is waning and it is likely that a temporary low is in place. Unless there is a clear
break below 1.5195/00, the current movement could be the start of a recovery phase towards
1.5310. That said, any up-move is viewed as a corrective and the outlook for GBP in the days ahead
is still bearish.

AUD/USD: 0.7785
Instead of trading sideways, AUD move below the 0.7790 support reaching a low of 0.7754. The
undertone is still weak and a break below the key support at 0.7740 could lead to acceleration
lower towards 0.7700. Only a move back above 0.7805/10 would indicate that the downward
pressure has eased.

USD/JPY: 120.10
The overnight USD strength held below the major resistance at 120.50 (high of 120.39). Despite
the pull-back from the high, it is unlikely that we have seen a top. Allow for a dip to 119.90 but
119.65 is expected to hold for another attempt to 120.50.

USD/CNH: 6.2750
While the initial rebound in USD held below the strong resistance at 6.2950, the subsequent
plunge was unexpected. That said, it is too early to expect a sustained down-move from here.
A move towards 6.2700 will not be surprising but 6.2650 is expected to hold for a recovery to
6.2805/10.

EUR/SGD: 1.5120
Despite the overnight EUR weakness, the downward momentum is not strong and further weakness is not expected from here. Allow for a dip to 1.5095 but the overnight low near 1.5060/65 is
expected to hold for a rebound to 1.5160.

GBP/SGD: 2.0900
The sharp recovery from the low of 2.0823/28 is likely the start of a consolidation phase. Expect
sideway trading today, likely between 2.0850 and 2.0940.

AUD/SGD: 1.0670
The rebound from the overnight low of 1.0618/23 appears to be corrective and unless there is a
move back above 1.0700/05, AUD is expected to retest the overnight low but at this stage, a sustained down-move is unlikely.

JPY/SGD: 1.1415
Against our expectation, JOY dipped below the strong 1.1390 support before rebounding. The
outlook is mixed for today and the recent choppy trading will likely persist. Expected range;
1.1380/1.1445.

The US dollar was broadly stronger but the key loser was the euro which dropped below 1.10
for the first time since September 2003 after the ECB released details on its own sovereign
bond buying programme. The EUR/USD traded to an intraday low of 1.0988 before it closed at
1.1030 (from previous close of 1.1078) while the EUR/JPY pair was also lower at 132.50 from 132.59
previously. The USD/JPY traded to a high of 120.40 in NY session, and settled at 120.13 from previous close of 119.68. The GBP/USD pair ended slightly lower at 1.5240 (from previous day close of
1.5265).

The AUD slid lower and the AUD/USD pair eventually closed at 0.7817 (from the previous close of
0.7817). The kiwi also depreciated against the USD and the NZD/USD pair ended the trading session at 0.7482 (from 0.759).

Asian currencies were broadly lower on Thur, ahead of ECBs policy meeting late in the evening
and US nonfarm payroll report late Fri. Chinas lowering of its growth target for 2015 further damp-

FX

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Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

ened market sentiment. For today, market focus will be on the US jobs report in the evening, and
trading mood is likely to stay cautious. In Thur session, KRW dropped 0.3% to 1,101.00/USD for its
second straight day of losses and THB declined 0.2% from 3 Mar to 32.405/USD as local markets
reopen after holiday. TWD fell 0.1% to 31.507, and PHP declined 0.1% to 44.130/USD. IDR steady
at 12,989/USD, with MYR easing just 0.1% to 3.6488/USD, after dropping to 3.6628/USD, the lowest since March 2009, along with concerns of possible rate cut by the central bank. Bank Negara
Malaysia ended up holding its key rate unchanged at 3.25% for the 8th consecutive month after
the last hike in July 2014.

The USD/SGD pair stretched higher on Thur, for a 0.23% gain to 1.3710, continuing its upward
trend that was halted earlier this week. The pair hit 1.3719 in Ldn/NY session highest since July
2010 as the European Central Bank outlined details of its QE program execution, highlighting
the diverge policy path of the ECB and US Fed. This morning, the SGD NEER index dipped further
to 1.6% below the midpoint in response to the strong USD overnight. While the -1% to -2% range
below the S$ index is still valid, the USD/SGD range shifted higher to 1.3626-1.3766 based on current FX levels, with USD/SGD hovering at 1.37010 early morning.

RMB firmed on Thur, rising to 6.2662/USD vs. Wednesdays close of 6.2709, after Premier Li
Keqiang signaled that the currency would stay stable despite a slowing economy with growth
target lowered to 7% for 2015, and PBoC said earlier that there was no urgency to widen the trading bands. Offshore CNH also strengthened, rising to 6.2771/USD from 6.2880 late Wednesday.
More comments from officials at the NPC, with PBoC Deputy Governor Yi Gang reiterating on Thur
that the RMB is entering a range near equilibrium level and China is able to keep basic equilibrium in balance of international payments this year, and the RMB exchange rate trading band is
enough for current use. This morning, the UOB central parity model projects a higher USD/CNY fix
at 6.1549-52, vs. central parity of 6.1528 on Thur.

EQUITIES

On Thursday (5 Mar), the US stock markets ended the 2-day losing streak with a slight rebound after investors were buoyed by the ECB QE details as they awaited the US February
jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 38.82 points (0.21%) to 18,135.72
while the S&P 500 was also higher by 2.51 points (0.12%) to close at 2107.78. The Nasdaq was the
best performer among the major indices and rose 15.67 points (0.32%) to close at 4,982.81. The
CBOE volatility Index (VIX) or fear index eased lower to 14.04 (from 14.23 previously).

US TREASURIES

Meanwhile, US Treasury prices rose in tandem with its counterparts in Eurozone as investors were re-invigorated by the ECB QE programme details, with the German 10-year Bund
yield settling near a new record low at 0.348%. The 10Y US Treasury yield closed 0.2bps lower
at 2.1154% while 5-year yield dropped by 1.5bps to 1.5729% and the 2Y UST yield was 1.6bps
lower at 0.6389%. The 30-year yield was the odd one out at it ended higher by 0.9bps to close at
2.7285%.

COMMODITIES

The US & global crude oil prices declined again after investors re-focused on the ever bludgeoning US crude inventories and the US EIA also reported an unexpected increase in gasoline supplies. US Nymex futures decreased by US$0.77 to close at US$50.76 while the London
Brent oil futures fell by US$0.07 to US$60.48. This resulted in the premium spread widening to
US$9.72 (from US$9.02).

Gold price strangely did not gain from the ECB QE details and instead lost ground due to
a broadly stronger US dollar. Gold price decreased by US$4.70 and closed at US$1,196.20 on 5
Mar 2015.

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Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

ECONOMIC NEWS & DATA

It was overall a lacklustre set of US economic data on Thursday (5 Mar), as the usual weekly US
initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 320k (from 313k last week) way above the expected drop to
295k. The January factory orders unexpectedly declined by -0.2%m/m after already contracting
3.5% in the previous month. Markets were expecting a 0.2% increase.

The Bloomberg consumer comfort survey saw a slight improvement to 43.5 (from 42.7).

The final print for US 4Q nonfarm labor productivity worsened to -2.2% (from prelim estimate
of -1.8%), translating to higher unit labor cost increase to 4.1% (from prelim estimate of 2.7%).

The US February Challenger job cuts increased by 20.9% (from 17.6%).

France 4Q ILO unemployment rate edged higher to 10% from 9.9% in 3Q.

German January factory orders contracted more than expected by -3.9%m/m (-0.1%y/y) from a
revised 4.4%m/m (3.9%y/y) surge in December.

February retail PMI for Euro-zone and its major constituent economies were generally weaker
compared to January except for Italy which saw a slight increase to 42.3 (from 41.2).

At the opening of Chinas annual National Peoples Congress (NPC) session on Thur, Premier
Li Keqiang delivered the economic work and budget reports. As expected, the growth target for
2015 has been lowered to about 7% vs. the 7.5% objective for 2014, with the actual outturn at
7.4% and the slowest since 1990. Other key economic targets/assumptions for 2015 include CPI
inflation at about 3% (2014: 2%), urban employment creation of 10 million (2014: 13.22 million),
urban registered jobless rate below 4.5% (end-2014: 4.1%), and M2 target of 12% (2014: 12.2%).

Japanese and Chinese officials will hold their first security talks in four years in Tokyo later this
month, Japans Foreign Ministry said on Thursday, the latest sign of a possible improvement in ties
strained by a territorial dispute.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.25% on Thursday (5 March) for the 8th consecutive month after the last hike in July 2014. The rate decision was
in line with markets and our expectation. The central bank said that at the current level of the
OPR, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and supportive of economic activity. While central banks worldwide have been biased towards easing monetary policy to boost
growth as oil prices declined, BNM is constrained in the short-term by the MYR weakness and
the Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation next month. Before the next monetary policy
meeting on 6-7 May, we will have more clarity on the impact of the GST on consumer prices for
an assessment of the policy direction for the rest of the year. For now, we expect no change in the
OPR for the rest of the year. Our end-2Q15 target for USD/MYR remains at 3.68 on USD strength.
Weaker growth prospects and near-term uncertainties domestically including the 1MDB debt
crunch will weigh on MYR.

Malaysias indebted and controversy-ridden state investor 1MDB will be left as a skeletal
structure and possibly dissolved under a debt repayment plan in which most of its assets will be
sold, Reuters reported Thur.

The Singapore Government has to sustain a fair and inclusive society for generations, said DPM
and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam as he wrapped up the Budget debate in Parliament on Thursday.

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Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

Economic Indicators
Date

Time

Indicators

05 Mar

1130

06 Mar

09 Mar

10 Mar

11 Mar
12 Mar

Month

Actual

Market Forecast

Previous

TH Consumer Confidence Economic

Feb

68.4

69.7

1600

TW Foreign Reserves USD

Feb

417.83

415.90bn

1800

MYR O/N Policy Rate

Mar

3.25

3.25

3.25%

2000

GBP Repo Rate

Mar

0.50

0.50

0.50%

2045

EUR Refinancing Rate

Mar

0.05

0.05

0.05%

2130

US Nonfarm Productivity

4Q F

-2.2

-2.3

-1.8%

2130

US Unit Labour Costs

4Q F

4.1

3.3

2.7%

2130

US Initial Jobless Claims

Feb 28

320

295

313k

2130

US Continuing Claims

Feb 21

2421

2395

2404k

2300

US Factory Orders

Jan

-0.2

0.2

-3.5%

1200

MY Exports y/y

Jan

2.5

2.7%

1200

MY Imports y/y

Jan

1.5

4.2%

1200

Trade Balance MYR

Jan

7.00

9.20bn

1530

TH Foreign Reserves USD

Feb 27

157.3bn

1800

EZ GDP q/q sa

4Q P

0.3

0.3%

1800

EZ GDP y/y sa

4Q P

0.9

0.9%

2130

US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Feb

235

257k

2130

US Change in Manufact. Payrolls

Feb

10

22k

2130

US Unemployment Rate

Feb

5.6

5.7k

2130

US Trade Balance USD

Jan

-41.2

-46.6bn

0750

JP GDP q/q sa

4Q F

0.6%

0750

JP GDP Annualized q/q sa

4Q F

2.2%

0750

JP GDP Deflator y/y

4Q F

2.3$

0750

JP GDP Private Consumption q/q

4Q F

0.3%

0830

TW CPI y/y

Feb

-0.94%

1600

TW Trade Balance USD

Feb

4.80bn

0930

CN CPU y/y

Feb

0.8%

0930

CN PPI y/y

Feb

-4.3%

2200

US Wholesale Inventories m/m

Jan

0.1%

1530

THB 1-Day Repo

Mar

2.00

2.00%

1900

US MBA Mortgage Applications

Mar 6

0200

US Monthly Budget Statement

Feb

1200

MY Industrial Production y/y

Jan

7.4%

2030

US Retail Sales Advance m/m

Feb

-0.8%

2030

US Retail Sales Ex Auto m/m

Feb

-0.9%

2030

US Import Price Index m/m

Feb

-2.8%

2030

US Import Price Index y/y

Feb

-8.0%

2030

US Initial Jobless Claims

Mar 7

2030

US Continuing Claims

Feb 28

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Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

13 Mar

1030

SG Unemployment Rate sa

4Q F

1.9%

1300

SG Retail Sales y/y

Jan

2.6%

1300

SG Retail Sales m/m sa

Jan

-2.0%

1530

TH Foreign Reserves

Mar 6

2030

US PPI Final Demand m/m

Feb

2030

US PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m

Feb

2030

US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m

Feb

2030

US PPI Final Demand y/y

Feb

2030

US PPI Ex Food and Energy y/y

Feb

2030

US Ex Food, Energy, Trade y/y

Feb

2200

US U. of Mich. Sentiment

Mar P

2030

US Empire Manufacturing

Mar

7.78

2115

US Industrial Production m/m

Feb

0.2%

2115

US Capacity Utilization

Feb

79.4%

2200

US NAHB Housing Market Index

Mar

55

0400

US Net Long-term TIC Flows USD

Jan

35.4bn

0400

US Total Net TIC Flows USD

Jan

174.8bn

0830

SG NODX y/y

Feb

4.3%

0830

SG NODX m/m sa

Feb

1.6%

1630

HK Unemployment Rate sa

Feb

3.3%

2030

US Housing Starts

Feb

1065k

2030

US Building Permits

Feb

1060k

0930

CN February Property Prices

1200

MY CPI y/y

Feb

1.0%

1730

UK Claimant Count Rate

Feb

2.5%

1730

UK Jobless Claims Change

Feb

-38.6k

1730

UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths

Jan

5.7%

1900

US MBA Mortgage Applications

Mar 13

0545

NZ GDP q/q sa

4Q

1.0%

0545

NZ GDP y/y

4Q

3.2%

2030

US Current Account Balance USD

4Q

-100.3bn

2030

US Initial Jobless Claims

Mar 14

-100.3bn

2030

US Continuing Claims

Mar 7

2200

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

Mar

5.2

2200

US Leading Index

Feb

0.2%

20 Mar

1530

TH Foreign Reserves

Mar 13

23 Mar

0830

TW Unemployment Rate

Feb

3.78%

1300

SG CPI m/m nsa

Feb

-0.2%

1300

SG CPI y/y

Feb

-0.4%

1300

SG CPI Core y/y

Feb

1.0%

1600

TW Industrial Production y/y

Feb

1630

HK BoP Current Account Balance USD

4Q

40.20bn

2030

US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

Feb

0.13

2200

US Existing Home Sales

Feb

4.82mn

16 Mar

17 Mar

18 Mar

19 Mar

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Friday, 06 March 2015

Markets Overview

Foreign Exchange Rates (as of 05 Mar 2015)

Interest Rates

Current

Next CB Meet

UOBs Forecast

FX

Close

Asian High

Asian Low

NY High

NY Low

USD Fed Funds Rate

0-0.25%

19 Mar

0-0.25%

EUR

1.1053

1.1144

1.1026

1.1114

1.0988

EUR Refinancing Rate

0.05%

15 Apr

0.05%

GBP

1.5254

1.5356

1.5226

1.5270

1.5215

GBP Repo Rate

0.50%

09 Apr

0.50%

AUD

0.7810

0.7861

0.7802

0.7841

0.7754

AUD Official Cash Rate

2.25%

07 Apr

2.25%

NZD

0.7522

0.7611

0.7513

0.7597

0.7454

NZD Official Cash Rate

3.50%

12 Mar

3.50%

JPY

120.17

120.19

119.47

120.40

119.63

JPY Official Cash Rate

0-0.10%

17 Mar

0-0.10%

SGD

1.3688

1.3695

1.3656

1.3717

1.3666

SGD 3-Mth SIBOR

0.79%

MYR

3.6487

3.6628

3.6405

MYR O/N Policy Rate

3.25%

07 May

3.25%

IDR

12990

13052

12982

IDR O/N Rate

7.50%

17 Mar

7.50%

THB

32.43

32.47

32.37

THB 1-Day Repo

2.00%

11 Mar

2.00%

PHP

44.128

44.202

44.120

PHP O/N Reverse Repo

4.00%

26 Mar

4.00%

INR

62.171

62.329

62.158

INR Repo Rate

8.00%

07 Apr

8.00%

TWD

31.507

31.520

31.436

TWD Discount Rate

1.88%

31 Mar

1.88%

KRW

1101.00

1101.45

1099.26

KRW Base Rate

2.00%

12 Mar

2.00%

HKD

7.7556

7.7564

7.7545

HKD Base Rate

0.50%

0.50%

CNY

6.2662

6.2716

6.2660

CNY 1-Yr Wking Capital

6.00%

6.00%

Stock Indices (as of 05 Mar 2015)

Closing

% chg

ytd % chg

Dow Jones Industrial Average

18135.72

+0.21

+1.75

NYMEX Crude (Apr)

S&P 500

2101.04

+0.12

+2.05

NASDAQ Composite

4982.81

+0.32

+5.21

Tokyo Nikkei 225

18751.84

+0.26

+7.46

London FTSE 100

6961.14

+0.61

+6.02

Frankfurt DAX

11504.01

+1.00

+17.32

All Ordinaries

5873.72

-0.04

+9.00

FTSE Straits Times Index

3395.27

-0.59

+0.90

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index

1806.09

-1.07

+2.55

Jakarta SE Composite Index

5450.95

+0.05

+4.29

Thailand SET Index

1553.33

-0.61

+3.72

Market Holiday

Philippines SE PSEi Index

7819.04

-0.37

+8.14

IN

Mar 06

Holi

Taiwan SE Weighted Index

9595.09

-0.28

+3.09

IN/PH

Apr 02

Mahavir Jayanti/Holy Thursday

Korea SE KOSPI Index

1998.38

+4.32

SG/HK/ID/PH

Apr 03

Good Friday

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

24193.04

-1.11

+2.49

AU/NZ/GB/US

Apr 03

Good Friday

Shanghai SE Composite Index

3248.48

-0.95

+0.43

AU/NZ/GB

Apr 06

Easter Monday

India Sensex 30 Index

29448.95

+0.23

+7.09

CN/TW

Apr 06

Tomb Sweeping Day

TH

Apr 06

Chakri Memorial Day

UOBs Estimation of SGD NEER (as of 06 Mar 2015)

Assuming 2.0% on each side of the pivot point

Commodities (as of 05 Mar 2015)

Closing

% Chg

50.76

-1.49

Comex Gold (Apr)

1196.20

-0.39

Reuters CRB Index

222.12

-0.48

Bond Yields (as of 05 Mar 2015)

Closing

Net Chg

US 2-Year Bond

0.64

-1

US 10-Year Bond

2.12

JP 10-Year JGB

0.40

-1

EU 10-Year Bund

0.35

-3

UK 10-Year Long Gilt

1.86

-2

Date

HK

Apr 06-07

Lower-End .........................................................................................

1.3764

PH

Apr 09

Upper-End ........................................................................................

1.3224

TH

Apr 13-15

Mid-Point ..........................................................................................

1.3489

IN

Apr 14

Event

Day After Ching Ming/Easter Mon

Araw Ng Kagitingan
Songkran Festival Day
Ambedkar Jayanti

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available to the public. Although the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, UOB Group makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness. Also, opinions and predictions contained herein reflect our
opinion as of date of the analysis and are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions
in, currencies and financial products mentioned herein. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, without reliance upon UOB Group
or its affiliates, the reader should determine, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and
consequences, of the transaction and that able to assume these risks. This document and its contents are proprietary information and
products of UOB Group and may not be reproduced or otherwise.
URL: www.uob.com.sg/research
Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com

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