DECENTRALIZATION IN AFRICA:

SEQUENCES AND P OLITICAL INCENTIVES

Paper prepared for the ECPR General Conference

Glasgow, 3-6 September 2014

J. Tyler Dickovick
Department of Politics
Washington and Lee University
DickovickT@wlu.edu

ABSTRACT
This paper examines African decentralization through the lens of historical-institutionalism,
with emphasis on the extent to which decentralization sequences and timing shape the extent
of autonomy for sub-national governments in multi-level systems. The paper addresses several
challenges to sequential arguments about decentralization to Africa. A key issue is endogeneity
and complexity in terms of how decentralization is measured and periodized across its political,
fiscal, and administrative dimensions. To provide a closer fit between sequential theory and
African realities, the paper then highlights new variables that must complement time and
sequence. Looking at decentralization processes that are open-ended and ongoing across
various dimensions leads to a modified sequential argument that combines changes over time
with key comparative-static variables, namely the interaction of regime incentives for
decentralization and the dynamics of political party systems.

DECENTRALIZATION IN AFRICA:
SEQUENCES AND P OLITICAL INCENTIVES
INTRODUCTION
The recent boom in decentralization around the developing world has captivated scholars and
policymakers, and has given rise to much theorizing about the causes of these reforms. Scholars
have examined cases worldwide in an effort to understand the origins and causes of
decentralization. Leading arguments about causes have relied heavily on rationalistinstitutionalist and historical-institutionalist theory, with the former often emphasizing
proximate causes in the form of incentives that might lead central governments to decentralize,
while the latter examine the more distal historical trajectories that condition government
choices (cf. Boone 2003; Eaton 2004; O'Neill 2005; Treisman 2007).
Among these approaches, one recent theory deservedly garners particular attention: the
sequential theory, forwarded by Tulia Falleti (2005, 2010). In Falleti's argument,
decentralization can be meaningfully assessed in three conceptually familiar dimensions
political, fiscal, and administrative and the sequence in which decentralization occurs across
these dimensions is the principal predictor of how much autonomy eventually accrues to
subnational governments. The dependent variable may thus be characterized as the overall
degree to which governance is decentralized, with the independent variables begin the timing
and sequencing of reforms. Where subnational elections (political decentralization) comes
first, power and authority tend to be genuinely decentralized, whereas when elections come
later in the sequence, power and authority remain centralized.
This theory, developed with reference to major Latin American cases, provides real leverage in
understanding decentralization's causes, but it can also benefit from further testing in other
geographic regions to interrogate scope conditions and point towards theoretical refinements.
In this spirit, this paper offers an empirical critique of the sequential theory using comparative
evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, and builds upon this to offer a theoretical critique that aims
to further our knowledge of the interplay between sequencing and decentralization.
Following a brief review of the achievements of the sequential theory, the paper highlights how
and why the theory seems to have more limited applicability to Africa than to Latin America. The
paper then focuses on three theoretical critiques, using Africa as the empirical referent. The first
is the continued difficulty of delineating and periodizing the origins of decentralization; though
studies of sequences are deeply historical in nature, the question of reverse causality persists.
The second challenge is scoring and measuring the independent variable sequence,
particularly with regard to open-ended and ongoing processes of decentralization. A third
critique then builds upon the theory, incorporating another historical context (Africas
neopatrimonial states) into the argument, along with institutional variation in the dynamics of
political party systems. In short, the paper builds on the historical-institutional perspective by
widening the historical/institutional scope to account for more empirical variation. This can
begin to address African cases and the theoretical challenges identified above.1
3

SEQUENCING AND DECENTRALIZATION : THE THEORY AND ITS ACHIEVEMENTS

The first task in testing and building upon this sequential theory is to understand its original
formulation. While multifaceted, the sequential theory of decentralization is comprised of three
main causal elements: the different sequencing of various types of decentralizing reforms; the
coalitions of actors that originated and propelled those reforms; and the historical
circumstances under which they acted. With its emphasis on the timing and sequencing of
different events and the feedback loops and reactive effects engendered by these events, the
theory is emblematic of how historical-institutional variables shape a range of social and political
outcomes (see also Mahoney 2000; Pierson 2000, 2004; Thelen 2003). Through a sophisticated
treatment of the origins and trajectories of different sequences, the theory explains variations i n
the extent to which power is devolved to elected subnational governments.
At issue is the sequence between political (P), fiscal (F), and administrative (A)
decentralization. When the sequence of these decentralization reforms is favorable to
subnational coalitions - or when these coalitions can act collectively to ensure a favorable
sequence - then robust decentralization results and subnational governments secure power,
resources, and authority. Conversely, other sequences can hamstring subnational
governments, leaving the center in control despite nominal decentralization. To simplify the
discussion, the most significant distinction seems to be between cases where administrative
decentralization precedes political (A precedes P) versus where political precedes
administrative (P precedes A), with the fiscal aspect generally closely accompanying
administrative decentralization.2 P preceding A augurs well for collective action and
collaboration in a subnational coalition: the fact of such a sequence demonstrates that
subnational actors have been able to ensure their autonomy before accumulating
responsibilities, and subsequently strengthens the bargaining position of these actors vis -a-vis
the center. Where A precedes P, this signifies central government control over the early stages
of a process - with the center offloading responsibilities before conferring autonomy - and gives
the center continued leverage throughout the decentralization. 3
The stated scope condition for the sequential theory is that some decentralization must be
attempted; so long as this is true, the theory should work across geographic and historical
circumstances. Yet a key layer of Fallettis argument places Latin American decentralization
sequences in proper historical perspective: decentralization emerges at different historical
moments, with conditioning factors at various levels of analysis. Sweeping international forces
and changes (the end of the Cold War, e.g.), condition the historical moment, as may domestic
factors such as democratization processes, or long-term trends of economic development. In
Latin America, the relevant context was the decline of the developmental state and the
emergence of the post-developmental state. This came with the rise of the neoliberal era in
the 1980s. Of course, the modal African state in the years before decentralization was quite the
opposite of developmental; it was neopatrimonial and personalistic. This gives reason to test
the sequential theory for empirical fit under other types of state apparatuses, with an eye
towards either confirming evidence or making needed amendments .4
4

A main achievement of the sequential theory is its ability to explain widely divergent outcomes
in terms of subnational autonomy that emerge from decentralization processes. The theory is
also has the appeal of many historical-institutional arguments: the ability to trace causal
outcomes to early and influential moments (see Pierson 2004). Such moments may be
exogenous shocks or chance events, or they may be critical junctures or moments through
which multiple cases pass in historical time, during which outcomes are indeterminate (cf.
Collier and Collier 1991).
W HY AFRICA DIFFERS: HISTORICAL BACKDROP OF DECENTRALIZATION IN AFRICA
The sequential theory is deeply historical, and historical evolution is part of the causal argument.
Accordingly, it can be quite consistent with the theory that Africa would witness different
decentralization outcomes in light of its different historical experience. The Latin American cases
of decentralization emerge in a period of post-developmentalism. This poses an intriguing issue
for the application of the theory to Africa. Certainly, we must interrogate whether the theory
applies in cases where states have professed developmentalism as a goal, but have had
markedly lower rates of success than in Latin America (or East Asia). The historical backdrop for
Africa is quite distinct even from the seemingly disparate experiences in Latin America, and may
help define the scope conditions for the sequential theory.
In particular, Africa has a much less robust history of local governance and countervailing local
elites that can meaningfully oppose central rule. That is, the history of governance is more
centralized. As noted in many of the seminal works of African politics, the underpinnings of
regimes have been the ability to extend patronage networks through kinship and other identity
groups (cf. Chabal and Daloz 1999). 5 Subnational government - local, district/prefectural,
provincial, and regional - has been an underpowered set of institutions.
Decentralization in Africa has thus been much more top-down than bottom-up as a result of this
less developed politics of opposition. More specifically, it has rarely emerged from the strength
of a subnational coalition or from a socio-political coalition acting in opposition to the governing
regime. The prospects that decentralization might be pushed by those outside of the national
power elite were significant in such countries as Brazil and Colombia, with their deeply
entrenched regional elites and fragmented or alternating party systems that were not undone
even by state militarization or authoritarian rule; even in Argentina and Mexico, significant
possibilities existed for subnational and opposition forces to engage in reactive processes. By
contrast, African decentralization has been best understood as an adaptive response of regimes
to changing political circumstances, powered by the rational expectations of central government
elites and not by subnational forces. It has been a political strategy with various modalities
(Boone 2003). While geography and history are not the sole determinants of political destiny,
this set of realities may place most African countries in a quite different realm of politics from
the post-developmental Latin American states where the sequential theory originated, and may
thus illuminate the scope conditions and certain limitations of the sequential theory. 6
5

Decentralization seems to follow from top-down decision making in Africa even in circumstances
where opposition to a regime has proved powerful. These come from the cases where
significant (and often violent) contestation for national power has occurred and has resulted in
regime change. In these circumstances - to be found in the likes of Ethiopia in the 1990s and
after the Biafra war in Nigeria regional, ethnic, or other subnational groups have presented a
vital threat to regime stability, and have sometimes succeeded in toppling regimes. Where such
opposition had a strong ethno-regional component, decentralization has sometimes followed.
Yet even in these cases, the calculus of decentralization has been driven by central government
efforts to perpetuate and maintain the regime. As Brancati (2009) has noted, the decision to
decentralize in multi-ethnic societies is peace by design, the addition of a safety valve.
Africas decentralization sequences are thus entangled with other variables, but are regularly
consequences of central government choice. These decentralization sequences do not emerge
as elite choices in a vacuum, but rather respond to broader social and political realities, including
regime types and regime politics, colonial and other historical legacies, and the structure of
political institutions such as parties and party systems.
This calls into question whether the decentralization sequence is the underlying causal
variable in decentralization, or rather an intervening variable that mediates the impact of other
more fundamental causes. In Africa, for instance, the likelihood of a robust (political-first)
sequence may increase with federalism and population size, a history of social strife, and an
anglophone colonial legacy (as in Nigeria), whereas a history of francophone unitarism and a
relatively lower level of civil conflict may be likelier to engender a more limited decentralization
from an administration-first sequence (as in Burkina Faso). Other variables may drive the logic,
even where variations in decentralization sequence correlate with the outcome.
Many of Africas decentralization initiatives accompanied the wave of political liberalization and
democratization in the early 1990s. The particular dynamics of a simultaneous interplay of
democratization and decentralization (as happened in countries such as Ghana, Mali, and South
Africa) is unlikely to be replicated in most countries. At the same time, decentralization often
accompanied post-conflict reconstruction (in countries such as Ethiopia, Mozambique, and
Uganda). In these cases, decentralization went hand-in-hand with efforts to build legitimate
governing authority and ensure stability. Again, this was less focused on intergovernmental
jockeying in normal politics, with its emphasis on service delivery, relative autonomy, and
political and economic development. The particular historical timing and the sequence of
changes may have driven largely by these initial regime goals; even if sequences then
correlated with outcomes as predicted by the sequential theory, the distal causal factors liberalization and regime stabilization - were indispensable elements of the causal chain.
In short, the most salient differences between the Latin American cases and the African cases is
that any meaningful subnational coalition for decentralization in Africa constituted an exi stential
threat to the regime. Where decentralization has been meaningful, it has been because its goals
were regime stability. Otherwise, decentralization has been a modest set of reforms overseen by
central governments. Decentralization in post-developmental Latin America seems to take place
6

in the realm of normal politics, where competing coalitions seek advantage against the
backdrop of a relatively stable institutional frame and negotiated regime transitions. 7 In Africa,
decentralization has either lacked those coalitions as meaningful actors, or has gone hand in
hand with the destabilization of the entire institutional frame. This affects how the sequential
theory operates on the continent.
DECENTRALIZATION SEQUENCES IN AFRICA: CRITICAL APPRAISAL AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THEORY
Decentralization in Africa can be expected to operate differently from the Latin American cases
where the sequential theory developed, largely because of the contrasting historical
circumstances. African states in the 1990s (when decentralization was initiated in most
countries) exhibited quite different characteristics from the Latin American cases before. Given
Falletis circumspection, this is foreseen and accommodated by the sequential theory, as
different historical moments (and specifically different types of states) are hypothesized to
engender different politics. The critical appraisal here is thus modeled as a set of posited
amendments, designed as a preliminary test of how the theory may best operate when
extended beyond its original context.
Two principal critiques emerge here, and both are empirical in nature. The first is that top-down
control of decentralization persists across various sequences. This critique emerges from a
limited number of cases that do not fit the model. The trend in Africa is for much less variation
on the dependent variable, even where the variation on the independent variables exists and
would predict different outcomes. The second critique focuses on the causes, noting that - far
from being cleanly identifiable - sequences cannot be measured with empirical precision in most
cases at present. Sequences in Africa rarely follow easily distinguishable patterns between P, F,
and A: sequences be more complex, more reciprocal, may be simultaneous rather than
sequential at all, or may be simply partial and incomplete. I treat these two concerns below.
Party Time: Partial Decentralization and Central Control in Dominant Party Systems
The most direct empirical challenge to the sequential theory from Africa comes from cases of
quite limited decentralization despite sequences deemed most favorable for SNG. Nearly all
cases of decentralization in Africa resulted in very limited devolution of power even when
political decentralization came first in the sequence (or was simultaneous with other areas in a
big bang sequence). In these decentralization sequences, subnational actors gained political
power followed by revenues and responsibilities, but this did not result in a base for substantial
devolution. More generally, central governments find significant ways to delimit and control
decentralization regardless of sequence (including those where political decentralization
occurred first). The impact of the decentralization sequence is attenuated by the salience of
other variables and the continued ability of African central governments to exert top-down
authority. This begins to suggest that the theory requires an African amendment to explain the
lack of more thorough decentralization when the sequence would predict strong devolution.
To capture the nature of this control, we can consider ways central governments delimit
7

decentralization in each of the three areas: political, fiscal, and administrative. For political
decentralization, African states are commonly led by top-down political parties operating
without coherent opposition in a dominant-party system; this complicates the prospects for any
significant coalition in favor of decentralization (whether subnational or opposition), except
under relatively exceptional circumstances of total regime change. On the fiscal side,
subnational governments have very limited tax bases to raise their own revenues, and central
governments exert substantial controls over any fiscal transfers needed to guarantee these.
Finally, central administrative controls abound, leaving subnational governments hemmed in on
all sides by forms of decentralization that leave central power predominant. This pattern is
found across all sequences in Africa, and the components of top-down control are detailed
below. These three areas of central control are mutually reinforcing: in top-down dominant
party states, subnational coalitions have a weak fiscal base that does not get strengthened in
part due to a weak political base (such as weak territorial representatives), which leaves the
administrative state (not elected officials) the primary force behind persistent centralization.
The reason for the difference resides in the tight linkage in Africa between party and state and in
the dominance of single parties.8 Regular alternation between institutionalized parties is rare in
Africa, and coherent and meaningful opposition is lacking even in most democratic countries.
Most cases of alternation result from serious fragmentation of party systems and the creation of
personalist vehicles for presidential runs. 9 Most party systems in Africa have a clear dominantparty, or have party systems with very low degrees of institutionalization and a highly
centralized authority in the office and person of the president. This is unsurprising in the many
authoritarian and semi-authoritarian polities on the continent, but also holds in the more
democratic countries such as Botswana, Namibia, Senegal, and South Africa. The impact - from
the perspective of the theory - is to facilitate top-down control over subnational elected
officials.10 An example is Ethiopia, which has a strongly federal constitution and substantial
empowerment of subnational governments (regional states and woredas), but also a dominant
party that controls over 99% of the seats in the national parliament and is comparably domi nant
at the subnational levels.
The sequential theory argues that sequences affect the level of autonomy through the
mechanism of subnational politician behavior. It holds that political-first sequences lead elected
subnational politicians to aggregate subnational voices and interests. Yet in Africa, this rarely
holds. Subnational politicians are primarily interested in maintaining clientelistic relationships
with national party elites, and with channeling national decisions down to local populations.
Even in a hypothetical political first decentralization sequence in Africa, local elected officials
would often not challenge the national dominant-party elite, due to its effective control over
both the electoral system and states patronage resources.11
In short, a common outcome in African decentralization is a lack of meaningful decentralization
even under the most favorable of sequences. Even those systems quite likely to feature
subnational autonomy exhibit a tendency towards top-down administrative centralism. South
Africa is a key example. Democratic, federal, and the subject of a big bang decentralization
with the new constitution in the 1990s, the country is among the most decentralized on the
8

continent. Nonetheless, tight administrative control over provinces comes in the form of
mandatory multi-year budgeting, national standards for service provision inputs and outputs,
constant collaboration and information-sharing between levels of government, and centralized
wage bargaining between public sector unions and government; this set of administrative
controls combines with dominant-party politics (of the African National Congress) and low fiscal
autonomy of the provinces to leave subnational autonomy quite circumscribed (Ahmad 2003;
Dickovick 2011). This can be understood only in light of a top-down dominant party.
Unfinished Business: Decentralization in Time and Over Time
The second challenge to the sequential theory is about measurement of both the independent
and the dependent variables, and especially periodization of cases into with regard to when
decentralization (political, fiscal, and administrative) actually occurs in time. Decentralization
sequences and their consequences are complex and open up the possibility of measurement
error if indicators are not specified a priori. In Africa, sequences are not neat processes that
can be quickly captured by schemas such as P-F-A or A-F-P. Indeed, this concern is recognized in
the theory itself, as Falleti classifies as response paths and positive feedba ck paths in which
reactive processes rebound to shape a complex sequence. This issue arises for measuring the
extent of decentralization (with uneven implementation and variations across sectors) and the
proper periodization of the timing and sequencing of decentralization (with issues revolving
around complex, reciprocal, and simultaneous sequences).
Measuring of the extent of decentralization
On the extent of decentralization, the central issue is adjudging whether decentralization has
occurred when it is legislated de jure versus achieved de facto. First, measuring decentralization
across the three dimensions involves at least some degree of analytic judgment about whether
decentralization has occurred, especially in countries where legal frameworks are robust, but
financial and administrative devolution are modest on the ground. A common experience in
African countries has been the announcement of a major decentralization law (or set of laws)
that is intended to devolve responsibilities and the requisite resources to accompany these, but
which in fact results in little more than a nominal, legalistic shift with few implications for the
transfer of resources. An example comes from the compelling decentralization processes in one
of Africas most democratic countries, Senegal. Decentralization laws in 1996 transferred nine
major public service responsibilities to subnational governments, at least in nominal terms.
Responsibilities included health, education, and infrastructure, including roads and water
provision. The laws stated that the requisite resources should accompany the transfer of
responsibilities, and indeed local governments were ensured of revenues from local property
taxes, the head tax (taxe rurale), and a guarantee of intergovernmental transfers through the
Decentralization Endowment Fund, the Fonds de dotation de la dcentralisation (cf. Dickovick
2011). By the set of formal-legal indicators used in the sequential theory, fiscal decentralization
was concurrent with the devolution of administrative responsibilities. However, Senegals
decentralization has convincingly been viewed as the center effectively offloading unfunded
mandates to subnational governments, and to a very limited extent, given that the central state
9

retains authority over the civil service, as happens in most African cases (Ribot 2002).
Decentralization has occurred de jure in many African cases, but has not been realized de facto,
and this presents a dilemma for how to measure sequences.12
Second, implementation of decentralization can lag in a number of ways. As noted,
francophone Africa provides examples - including Benin and Mali - where decentralization laws
have been passed de jure, but have had little transformational impact de facto, even where
decentralization has been initiated (interviews Robert Houessou, Joseph Tossavi, Didier Verse,
2010). These experiences at least partially echo the Senegalese experience noted above. Yet
perhaps the clearest and most intriguing case is Mozambique, which has been an overtly
asymmetric decentralization even in the political form. While most countries have decentralized
on a nationwide basis de jure, Mozambiques FRELIMO government opted to enstate elections
for certain areas (autarquias, mostly in urban and peri-urban areas), but not wall-to-wall across
the entire national territory. Most rural areas remain under the domain of districts, and hence
under the deconcentrated central state. The Mozambican example of asymmetric
decentralization serves not simply as an exception, but rather as an exemplar of the variety of
ways decentralizations sequence invites measurement difficulties in Africa. Asymmetric
decentralization - interpreted broadly - is normal in Africa. In francophone west Africa, capital
cities and metropolises (Dakar, Cotonou, Bamako, e.g.) adopt significant public sector
responsibilities early on in decentralization sequences, while rural local governments may
initially do scarcely more than elect a mayor, hire a clerk, and issue birth and death certificates.
South Africa witnessed substantial political decentralization for some of its people (under
apartheid) at the local level of government at one moments in time, but this was followed by
fuller universal political decentralization at another level - the province - with the advent of
democracy. In Ethiopia, the extent of political decentralization has been asymmetric both across
states and across levels of government (Dickovick and Gebre-Egziabher 2014).
Finally, decentralization sequences can vary by sector, and sometimes dramatically. An African
country may initiate fiscal and administrative decentralization in some small sectors of
expenditure responsibility, but not in health and education. This makes it exceedingly difficult to
determine whether devolution has occurred in the fiscal and administrative categories, unless
one chooses to theorize only on a sector-by-sector basis; it may be possible to come up with a
theory of decentralization in education, but African cases show this should not be confused
with a theory of decentralization. Falleti addresses this with the reasonable solution of looking
at health and education as the two major areas subject to decentralization. However, this fits
oddly in the context of the African state, where the main continuing cost drivers in education teachers and personnel - typically remain under the purview of the central state bureaucracy,
even after devolution. (This recalls the situation outlined above, where the extent of
decentralization is at issue.) Examples have included even relatively advanced decentralization
processes in both Ghana and Tanzania, where civil service reform has been ongoing, many years
after district-based decentralization was enacted. Many variations in decentralization will also
take the shape of variations within sectors, of course, as the financing and administration of a
particular public sector responsibility (such as education or health) make be partial or take place
over time; it is to this wider range of how sequences may evolve over time that I turn next.
10

Measuring the timing of decentralization

Periodizing decentralization relates to the prior question (of how much decentralization
happens), but also presents additional measurement problems of its own. The first issue in
measuring sequences is simply that we must account for (nearly) simultaneous decentralization
across the three areas. African cases have given rise to several simultaneous decentralization
processes, in South Africa, Ethiopia, and Senegal, for instance. These big bangs may be seen as
likely to lead to great decentralization, and they do moreso than other sequences in Africa, but
African countries remain less decentralized than in Latin America. Many more processes in
Africa are nearly simultaneous or overlapping, as many processes have gone through the
aforementioned bouts of incomplete implementation, or partial enactment (such as framework
laws without enabling legislation). If fiscal and administrative decentralization can be said to
happen over a period of time, then most processes are simultaneous; if they are indicated to
have happened at a legislative moment, then they fail to capture the empirics of the case.
Simultaneity does not detract from the sequential theory, but adds to it. As noted in the
subsequent section, these big bang decentralization reforms are typically responses to
underlying causal factors that are likely to push decentralization: they are reflective of regimes
that are either proactively or reactively attempting to ensure regime stability and maintenance
by accommodating the pressures from regional groups.
Beyond simultaneous decentralization, a general difficulty arises with the reciprocal and
complex nature of many sequences.13 For instance, a country may be measured as following a
sequence F-A-P, but may move substantially farther on A than on F, then return to more F, and
so on. By way of empirical example, how best should an analyst account for the example of
federalism and decentralization in Ethiopia? In this country, a constitutional process in the early
1990s mandated a big bang decentralization to take place simultaneously across the political,
fiscal, and administrative areas. Yet this was implemented unevenly acros s the areas, and built
upon administrative units that existed before any other decentralization was attempted? Is this
simultaneous, or a case of an administrative-first sequence? To further complicate the
situation, the country undertook a second wholesale decentralization process in the early 2000s,
this time to the district level rather than the state level. This process too was ambiguous in
terms of which areas proceeded in which order.
Among the three elements, political decentralization seems to have the clearest indicators for
when it occurs in time.14 Political decentralization may occur, for instance, when subnational
elections are held and elected officials assume their posts. By contrast, fiscal and administrative
decentralization are much harder to pin down as having happened or not (and when), and are
therefore susceptible to measurement error. This in turn can lead to selecting indicators of
decentralization that fit the preferred causal model. Table 1 shows some of the complexity of
the decentralization sequences in 13 African countries.

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Table 1
The Decentralization Sequence in 13 African Countries
Country
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Mozambique
Nigeria
Senegal
South Africa
Tanzania
Uganda

Simultaneous or
Sequential?
Sequential
Sequential
Sequential
Simultaneous
Simultaneous
Simultaneous
Simultaneous
Sequential
Simultaneous
Simultaneous
Simultaneous
Sequential
Simultaneous

Notes
A before P; limited F; challenge in periodizing F
A before P; limited F; challenge in periodizing F
A before P; limited F; challenge in periodizing F
Nearly simultaneous (1990s)
Nearly simultaneous (1990s); challenge in periodizing F
Nearly simultaneous (2010)
Nearly simultaneous (1990s); challenge in periodizing F
A before P; limited F; challenge in periodizing F
Nearly simultaneous (1970s, 1990s)
Nearly simultaneous (1990s); challenge in periodizing fiscal
A first pre-1994; nearly simultaneous in 1994; challenge in periodizing
A simultaneous with P in 1994-97; limited F follows
Nearly simultaneous (1990s)

Key:
P Political (SNG elections);
F Fiscal (SNG revenues);
A Administrative (SNG responsibilities)
Of course, precise measurement and periodization is a feature of historical-institutional
approaches, which owes much of its strength to an ability to detect patterns in processes
operating over time. Such approaches often favor measures and indicators that are less
quantifiable (than comparative-static models, e.g.), but can be especially powerful at
preventing error and allowing for precision through detailed measurement of variables over a
period of time; these are the among the many merits of such approaches. But arguments built
on timing and sequencing require precise periodization, which can prove exceedingly sensitive
to an analysts judgment when taken across multiple interlocking areas and slow-moving
processes in short time windows (as with the three forms of decentralization in Africa). While
demonstrating usefulness and fit for the Latin American cases, the theory comes under greater
empirical pressure when exposed to the large number of cases coming from Africa: either
empirical fit weakens or choices about periodization and measurement become increasingly
suspect. This serves as the basis for revisions that may facilitate extending sequential theory to
Africa.
REVISING THE SEQUENTIAL THEORY
Potential revisions to the sequential theory emerge directly from the sections above. The first is
a theoretical response to the section on why Africa is different: the need to understand
central government motivation in treating decentralization as an existential threat rather than
12

one arena among many in the domain of politics. The other two revisions treat the issues of
extent and timing of decentralization, as just elaborated: the institutional backdrop of the
party-state, and the possibility of simultaneous and complex sequences. These add variables to
the sequential theory, but in a way that extends empirical fit to a large number of African
countries, thus retaining parsimony. As explained in the conclusion, it actually further embeds
the original historical-institutional arguments in greater historical and institutional detail.
Revision #1: Stability and Legitimacy as Central Government Imperatives
Where meaningful decentralization has occurred in Africa, it can generally be explained by
national elite efforts to enhance stability, ensure governability, and legitimize the regime. On
the other hand, most decentralization decisions are not intended first and foremost to
reconfigure the governance of public services. The motivation behind central government
decisions to decentralize matters, and it is important to offer a thicker set of possible
motivations than the desire by central governments to minimize the amount of power devolved
to subnational officials. In fact, the strength of one of the leading competing theories of
decentralization (ONeill 2005) is in its treatment of central governments that may have reason
to making the seemingly puzzling choice to devolve away power.
Decentralization need not only occur when central governments lose intergovernmental
games, but can also occur when central governments see decentralization as a strategy or tactic
for regime maintenance. Africa shows this in many cases. Some come from the continents
three most significant federal systems - Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa - which deserve
particular attention given the prevalence of federal systems (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico)
among the four cases examined by Falleti. In each of these cases, a governing elite with
prospects for electoral dominance instituted a new federal dispensation in the 1990s, offering a
radical decentralization of power, at least de jure. Nigerias military and civilian elites in the PDP
(Peoples Democratic Party), Ethiopias EPRDF (Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic
Front), and South Africas ANC (African National Congress) each took power in countries riven
by internal conflicts rooted in ethno-regional identities. Yet all three of these new regimes, the
dominant party quickly developed electoral hegemony and centralized revenue collection.
They also established strong rules for monitoring the spending of federal units, though Nigerias
chaotic political economy allows for personalism and clientielism.
Even in countries where decentralization has in fact been very limited, regime stability has been
an important factor in shaping reform. This can be found in relatively democratic cases such as
Mali, where concerns about the threat to stability from Tuareg groups in the 1990s was a major
impetus for decentralization (Seely 2001). The reforms ultimately did little in the way of
devolving real power, despite significant movement at the time (cf. Wing 2008). Similar
phenomena can be found in less democratic circumstances, such as in Mozambique, where the
end of civil war (Reaud and Weimer 2014). And in countries that are not post-conflict
environments, such as Burkina Faso and Tanzania, the stability of the regime continued to play
an important role in shaping the parameters of decentralization (Englebert and Sangare 2014;
Reaud and Weimer 2014).
13

Decentralization thus becomes another institutional arena in which structural patterns of

African governance reimpose themselves. As Chabal and Daloz (1999) note, certain pathologies
of African governance are capable of manifesting themselves under different formal
institutional arrangements; if such patterns as centralized governance can transmit across even
regime changes from authoritarianism to democracy, they can also remain robust even when
certain formal institutions of governance are nominally decentralized. This is documented to
have occurred with foreign aid and donor conditionality, for instance, as African governments
have used a variety of tactics to circumvent the intended outcomes of donor action.
History matters in a structural sense as well, and weighs heavily on African decentralization.
This confirms the importance of the research agenda laid out by his torical-institutionalists and
gives support to the endeavor behind the sequential theory. On the other hand, it also
highlights that the complex outcomes often cannot be traced to relatively neat sequences.
Rather, structural variables are required, as are understandings of deep historical antecedents.
Revision 2: Parties, Party Systems, and Institutional actors
The second set of factors needed to explain African decentralization isinstitutional actors. The
most important are patterns of party dominance and the interactions between parties and
states, but also important are the prospective subnational coalitions that might push
decentralization. Africa has a long history of one-party and dominant-party states, and while
these also exist in Latin America (as in Mexico), it seems the integration of party and state has
complicated African decentralization, particularly in unitary states. Dominant parties that are
electorally dominance and have continuous and repeated access to state institutions are able to
merge two centripetal forces that are mutually reinforcing: top-down political control over
subnational politicians electoral fortunes, and top-down administrative control over
subnational politicians fiscal resources. In addition, subnational coalitions are generally weaker
than in Latin America. Where there is little history of powerful subnational elected officials,
reactive sequences and unintended consequences of decentralization that empower
subnational governments are likely to be much more attenuated.15 Taken together, these
create institutional environments in which subnational politicians are very unlikely to be
empowered, regardless of decentralization sequence.
The theory of decentralization thus needs to take into account the institutions of governance
that give rise to different propensities for subnational collective action. Latin America has a
longer history of semi-autonomous local politics in this regard. Africas history is one of
relatively weak articulation between central state and local society, with many of the most
robust local institutions operating in the vacuum left by the states relative weakness (cf. Boone
2003; Herbst 2000). Both regions have seen efforts by central states to establish clientelistic
relationships with local elites, but the variations in modalities and the contrasting development
experiences of the continents have given rise to much greater salience for power coalitions in
Latin America that identify with the subnational cause per se.
14

Dominant party systems and weaker subnational coalitions are two variables that can account
for much of the weakness of African decentralization. even in cases of big bang
decentralizations where the sequential theory would predict meaningful devolution. By way of
amending the sequential theory, these institutional actors could be seen as establishing the
backdrop against which different sequences play out. In a sense, this returns us to a
consideration of the comparative-static models of decentralization that take institutions or
electoral incentives at a given moment in time as the key independent variables (Garman,
Haggard, and Willis 2001; ONeill 2005) While less dynamic than historical-institutional models,
these approaches are surely correct that institutions s uch as party systems matter as well; the
resolution is consider both, recognizing that parsimony may be sacrificed, but that
incorporating institutions may facilitate much greater empirical fit across a range of cases from
other regions.
Revision 3: Complex and Simultaneous Sequences
African cases tend towards simultaneous or nearly simultaneous decentralization across the
three dimensions. Fiscal decentralization rarely precedes administrative decentralization in any
significant way, but usually accompanies it, at least de jure. And both tend to emerge from
decentralization laws that also create elected subnational positions. Thus, P, F, and A have gone
together in Africa. Given the limited nature of decentralization, it may stretch credulity to call
these big bang decentralizations, but they do have a similarly simultaneous structure.
In Falletis work, the possibility of complex sequences is perhaps illustrated most clearly in the
Argentina case, where secondary schooling is decentralized long after primary. Falleti
characterizes the decentralization as the first cycle (i.e., when primary school was
administratively decentralized), but a different interpretation might hold that decentralization
had not occurred until secondary schooling was decentralized; the empirical fit of this crucial
case depends upon the characterization of when exactly administrative decentralization
happened.16
Noting the presence of complex, reciprocal, and simultaneous sequences leads to two specific
proposals. The first is to explicitly formulate a theoretical argument for simultaneous
sequences, or sequences in which the various forms of decentralization overlap significantly.
The logic for simultaneous or non-sequenced decentralization reforms is as follows. By contrast
with sequenced decentralization reforms where contestation over intergovernmental authority
is set against a backdrop of more or less clear rules, these big bang decentralizations are likely
to occur as a result of regime-level imperatives, typically when the very stability of the regime
or (pre)dominant party is in question. They often occur at moments of regime change, and the
expected value of decentralization would be quite high at these moments in a comparative
sense. Though even Africas simultaneous sequences resulted in quite limited decentralization,
these moments were themselves surely the peak of decentralizing zeal. 17 The second is to
account for complex sequences by the underlying power relations that serve as the political and
historical backdrop for the theory. Where sequences are difficult to decipher, a more tractable
independent variable may be structural in nature. 18
15

IMPLICATIONS
This empirical and theoretical critique aims to build upon the sequential theory, and would be
incomplete if it simply noted that additional variables are required to stretch the scope of the
theory and ensure its empirical fit across more cases. Two things may be said on this point. The
first regards sample size. Testing decentralization sequences against African cases has the
advantage of offering 48 sub-Saharan countries against which to test arguments. While
political-fiscal-administrative sequences alone are argued not to account for the variations
across these cases, a theory that incorporates sequences into considerations of colonial and
post-colonial histories and institutional environments may have considerable leverage over a
large number of country experiences. As Faletti (2010) notes with regard to case selection, it
may be appropriate to pay particular weight to large and substantively significant cases (i.e.
Brazil may matter more than Suriname and Nigeria more than Lesotho), but raw expansion of
the number of observations will be welcome. Second, parsimony need not be sacrificed if a
theory can be constructed around the motivations of governing elites, especially parties under
institutional constraints. ONeills (2005) theory, which finds decentralization to be an outcome
of parties that are nationally weak(ening) and subnationally strong, retains its salience here.
While Falleti finds political party systems do not correlate with decentralization in Latin America,
the emphasis on political party motivation is effective. 19
From a policy perspective, the implications of this critique of the sequential theory are
numerous. The joint emphasis on stable historical factors and persistent institutional realities in
Africa suggests that policy advice on institutional design is likely to be relatively ineffective.
While Falleti is duly cautious about reactive sequences and unintended consequences, the
sequential theory has clear policy implications for advocates of decentralization that will
empower local actors: begin with political decentralization, and make sure function follows
finance, rather than the other way around. (Conversely, the policy takeaway for power-jealous
central governments would be to invert that sequence.) This analysis of African cases makes a
much more ambiguous observation about policy design, holding that African governments are
likely to preside over very limited decentralization even in the pres ence of optimal policy design.
These political realities constitute a word of caution about expectations that subnational actors
can be empowered and their autonomy enhanced.
Decentralizing governance in Africa will require attention to sequences as a necessary, but not
sufficient, condition for increasing local autonomy. It also will require the establishment of
countervailing political powers that can resist central control and point political accountability
downward. This would include in particular: party systems with bottom-up features for
candidate selection; state and civil service reform to make personnel downwardly accountable
to local officials, and in most all cases guarantees of intergovernmental fiscal transfers to ensure
the revenue autonomy of local governments in places where local tax bases are low. That is,
ongoing incentive structures need to be established as matters of institutional design in the
political, administrative, and fiscal arenas.
16

Applying the sequential theory to Africa, one finds that the theoretical elements that travel
best may be those that are not about the sequences themselves, but the other aspects of
Falletis multifaceted argument. The relative strength of national and subnational coalitions,
combined with the historical backdrop of the state apparatus, can account for much of why
Africas decentralization sequences are weaker across the board: subnational actors have been
historically subjugated to the state and the state apparatus has historically been top-down and
clientelistic. The Latin American sequences played out against a backdrop of the downsizing of
central state power (the postdevelopmental, increasingly neoliberal s tate) and in a region where
subnational coalitions had at least prospects for political salience. In Africa, the retraction of the
state occurred against the backdrop of quite weak state institutions, and in a region where
subnational coalitions had scant prospects for political relevance. These realities seem to go
farther in explaining the cross-regional variation than the sequence of decentralizing changes.
In postdevelopmental states, decentralization sequences go a long way towards explaining
institutional designs and their consequences. In Africa, where even the decentralization
sequences most favorable to SNG have not had the anticipated effects, a more comprehensive
set of changes to political structures would be required for decentralization to devolve power
meaningfully. That African cases would require especially large investments in institutional
overhaul is a finding that is echoed across a range of areas (cf. van de Walle 2001, e.g.). The
constraints to decentralization in Africa are numerous, going beyond the sequence of
decentralization and including the fundamental structures of party and state, and the historical
interaction of both. As Africanists might emphasize, institutional designs and governance
reforms can all too easily be hemmed in by constraints that are enduring enough to be called
structural.
A revised version of the sequential model is outlined in four steps and can be schematized as in
Table 2 and Figure 1 below. It shows how the autonomy that results from processes of
decentralization depends on several variables. The decentralization sequence is incorporated
into this argument, but to explain African outcomes, that sequence must be more fully
embedded in other histories and institutions. The key variables include the historical moment in
a country or region (as represented in the type of state being post-developmental or
neopatrimonial); the imperatives leading to decentralization; the coalition and sequence (which
are reflected in the original theory, but have greater observed variation); and the party system.

17

Historical
moment
Postdevelopmental
Postdevelopmental
Neopatrimonial

Neopatrimonial
Neopatrimonial

Table 2
Sequences of Decentralization: Revised Model
Imperative Coalition
Sequence
Party
systems
Normal
Subnational Sequential
Two/multi
politics
coalition
Normal
National
Sequential
Two/multi
politics
coalition
Stability
Subnational Simultaneous Dominant
coalition
(big bang)
Party or
Collapsed
Stability
National
Sequential
Dominant
coalition
Party
Normal
National
Sequential / Dominant
politics
coalition
reciprocal
Party

Autonomy
High
Low
High

Low
Very Low/
None

Step 1: What is the extent of state-building?

Latin American cases can be categorized, roughly, as post-developmentalist. African cases
constitute a different category on this variable: they were broadly neopatrimonial when
decentralization processes were initiated. This difference affects the long-run prospects for
decentralization. In Africa, these formal institutions are less significant, but countries still have
tendencies toward high degrees of state centralism, even where central states are weak (as in
most countries), and even in cases of larger divided societies (such as Nigeria and Ethiopia).
Predicted effects:
1a) post-developmentalist states (Latin America, e.g.) tend toward greater decentralization.
1b) neopatrimonial states (Africa, e.g.) will tend towards greater continuity of centralism
1c) other stat types (developmental in East Asia, e.g.) will affect the level of centralism
Step 2: What are the imperatives driving decentralization?
The next step is imperatives or incentives to decentralize. This is not simply a matter of political
incentives of national and subnational actors in terms of normal politics, but also whether
decisions about decentralization are occurring in times of normal politics at all. In particular,
some decentralization scenarios occur there are imperatives of national stability. In Africa, this
is seen in the many instances where decentralization is a matter of necessity for national unity.
Predicted effects:
2a) Security/stability imperatives states will lead toward greater decentralization
2b) Subnational pressures for decentralization lead toward relatively robust decentralization.
2c) Contingent central incentives for electoral or temporal gain lead to limited decentralization.
2d) Lacking incentives for central governments or regimes to decentralize leads to centralism.
18

Step 3: What is the decentralization sequence?

The decentralization sequence then enters the model as the key intervening variable in a
historical-institutional sequence. Building on Falletis model, the sequence will affect the
ultimate degree of decentralization, but simultaneous processes and incomplete processes
should be added as explicit possibilities. Adding simultaneous decentralization and reciprocal
processes allows for explication of the large number of cases in Africa.
Predicted effects:
a) simultaneous or near-simultaneous processes will lead to the most decentralization
b) political-first sequences tend toward the decentralized end of the spectrum
c) administrative-first sequences tend toward the more centralized end of the spectrum
d) Reciprocal or partial sequences yield little decentralization.
Step 4: What is the shape of institutions that condition decentralization?
The proximate cause of decentralization is then the institutions that shape behavior. These can
range from federalism (institutions that strongly guarantee or buttress decentralization, as
brought about by the prior variables in the model) to electoral systems in unitary states with
more or less decentralizing effects (district-based versus nationwide proportional
representation, e.g.) to highly centralized dominant-party systems. The predicted effects here
are obvious, and well-established in comparative perspective; to a substantial degree, the
causal link to the decentralization outcomes is a half-step.
Predicted effects:
a) dominant-party systems will tend toward greater centralism
b) collapsed systems and regimes tend toward decentralism
c) competitive party systems tend toward moderate amounts of decentralization
Figure 1 below offers a schematic view of this preliminary model.

19

Figure 1
Revised model of African Decentralization

History

Outcomes

Imperative

"Post-developmental"
states
Security
Neopatrimonial states
Domestic pressure
(democratization)
Political opportunism
(normal politics)
External pressure

Sequence
Simultaneous
Sequence: Political
first
Sequence: Admin. first
Sequence:
reciprocal/multiple

Institutions
Federalism
Unitary, decentralized
electoral
Unitary, centralized
electoral
Dominant party-state

Robust decentralization
Weak decentralization
Continued centralism

Note: the added variations on the variables from revising the theory are in bold.
To conclude this preliminary examination, there are three situations that arise commonly in
Africa that have required particular examination. Big Bang decentralizations that accompany
regime changes are the first significant example. Falletis sequential theory casts these as P-F-A,
but they can also be considered nearly simultaneous, with the decisions made through
constitutional bargaining processes (Constituent Assemblies, e.g.); the implementation comes
as a P-F-A sequence, but the decision is for simultaneous decentralization, these decisions
reflecting open political processes with considerable contestation and participation from
multiple actors. A second is modest forms of decentralization come with less change that is
somewhat reversible (though also stickier than dominant parties or regimes might prefer).
These are found across regions in cases of contingent political incentives to decentralize that
may get locked in by sequences that create some meaningful (yet limited) pro-decentralization
institutions. A third frequent category is continued centralism, or failed decentralization. Here,
the modal path is neopatrimonialism (with an insignificance of formal state institutions) to
contingent incentives or lack of incentives, to a partial sequence, to dominant-party states, and
ultimately to continued centralism. Explaining these outcomes requires a theory of
decentralization in time that embeds the historical-institutional sequential theory even more
deeply in Africas particular historical and institutional configurations.

20

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Beer, Caroline. 2003. Electoral Competition and Institutional Change in Mexico. Notre Dame: Notre
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Boone, Catherine. 2003. Political Topographies of the African State: Territorial Authority and
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Chabal, Patrick and Jean-Pascal Daloz. 1999. Africa Works: Disorder as Political Instrument. Bloomington,
IN: Indiana University Press.
Collier, Ruth Berins and David Collier. 1991. Shaping the Political Arena. Princeton: Princeton University
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Dickovick, J. Tyler and Tegegne Gebre-Egziabher. 2014. Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Centripetal
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Strength. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Eaton, Kent. 2004. Politics Beyond the Capital: The Design of Subnational Institutions in South America.
Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Englebert, Pierre and Nestorine Sangar. 2014. Burkina Faso: Decentralization under Tight Oversight,
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Strength. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Falleti, Tulia. 2005. A Sequential Theory of Decentralization: Latin American Cases in Comparative
Perspective, American Political Science Review 99(3): 327-346.
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Garman, Christopher, Stephan Haggard, and Eliza Willis. 2001. Fiscal Decentralization: A Political Theory
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Herbst, Jeffrey. 2000. States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control.
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22

Throughout, this criticism is not directed at Falletis original examination of Latin American cases, but rather to
test how the framework may be best applied, adapted, and amended to test other cases.
2
There is some disagreement among scholars about how administrative decentralization should be conceptualized
and operationalized. Falleti views administrative decentralization as the expenditure side of the public ledger; that
is, virtually all public spending. By contrast, many public administration scholars consider administrative
decentralization to refer mainly to human resources responsibilities for planning and budgeting, and for
managing civil servants and consider expenditures to be part of fiscal decentralization. The distinction does not
affect the argument here, but this paper follows Falleti's approach.
3
This groups the Fiscal and Administrative aspects of Falletis theory together temporarily as representing the
decentralization of revenues and expenditures.
4
Outcomes may differ, for instance, between a poor country that decentralized rapidly in a post-1989
democratization versus a wealthy country that decentralized in the 1960s. With respect to development, for
instance, there is a correlation between the most industrialized and largest African economies Nigeria and South
Africa and the presence of more extensive decentrali zation to states and provinces; this relates to the emergence
of federalism for these two cases.
5
Despite the weakness of opposition, central states are paradoxically weak as well, having long exhibited an
inability to broadcast power into the countryside and build formal authority (Herbst 2000).
6
It may be worth considering in broader comparative perspective whether the significant features of the Latin
American cases are the post-developmental period, or rather the specific set of institutional actors that
accompanies that period of development: emergent contestation of liberal democracy, as contrasted with the less
liberal and less pluralistic form of contestation that accompanies the (post-)neopatrimonial state in Africa.
7
In Brazil, decentralization took place alongside democratization, but the negotiated and protracted nature of the
democratic transition was still quite distinct from several violent contestations in Africa and even from the shift in
power in South Africa.
8
In Latin America, this is seen historically in Mexico with the PRI and at times in Argentina with the Peronists, b ut
even in these cases decentralization took on new salience in a period when the dominant party was waning.
9
Ghana is an outlier for its relatively stable system of two-party alternation and consistent subnational bases for
the national party in oppositi on.
10
The economically successful nation of Botswana is the most confounding case here, as it democratized,
decentralized, and developed economically on an earlier time frame than most other cases here. But upon
examination, Botswanas exceptionalism does not yield immediate comparative insights, vis --vis other unitary
cases, into the outcomes of decentralization.
11
Even in some regimes that are quite competitive nationally, many subnational elections lack competitiveness. An
example here is Ghana, where recent national elections are have been very closely contested between two leading
parties, yet each of the parties predominates in its own home region (with the capital city of Accra and certain other
regions serving as swing regions). The lack of competitiveness locally means that a candidates real contest is in
earning the nomination of the regionally-dominant party. In such situations, if national party elites exercise power
over subnational nominating procedures, then the effect is similar to a dominant party system. This returns us to an
understanding of decentralization much more rooted in party systems and party competitiveness than in the
historical-institutional sequence (cf. Garman, Haggard, and Willis 2001; Beer 2003).
12
Senegal could simply be viewed as never having decentralized at all, given these limitations. This would make it a
negative case, and would place it beyond the reach of the sequential theory; this would ensure the case does not
harm the sequential theorys empirical fit, but would also mean that the theory loses the ability to speak to most
of the 54 countries of Africa, even those that have led the continent in formal -legal decentralization.
13
Reciprocal and complex processes relate to the simultaneity as well. If sequences exhibit feedback mechanisms,
it begs the question whether each form of decentralization is not simply playing out over a longer time period,
rather than a discrete and short one. The more time frames for the sequences are stretched to include all aspects
of implementation, the greater the likelihood of overlapping and simultaneous processes across the three areas.
14
Falleti defines political decentralization somewhat more broadly than many others in the literature, going
beyond subnational elections to a range of reforms empowering subnational officials.

23

15

African local governance draws on powerful sets of institutions such as customary and traditional authorities,
and indigenous institutions. Yet these institutions are by their nature focused on the resolu tion of localized
collective action dilemmas, and are thus much better suited to changing governance at the local level that they are
to the sort of macro-political articulation needed to reshape regime politics.
16
Of course, some judgment must be exerci sed here, lest it be argued that decentralization is always incomplete
(say, until even tertiary education has been decentralized, e.g.). By such a measure, almost no countries in the
developing world would have completed decentralization in this sector. The argument is not about a particular
measurement, but rather that the empirical fit is highly contingent upon the analysts identification of the moment
of each form of decentralization.
17
Of course, sequences can arise at time of regime change as well (as Falleti notes for Brazil and even Mexico), but
in those circumstances, subnational coalitions are likely to be at the most powerful, again suggesting that the end
result will be relatively consequential.
18
This is not to say the sequence is epiphenomenal, but rather that it may - in the African context, at least - be
seen as ultimately a reflection of the conditions political conditions under which the national and subnational
coalitions emerged, and how these are reformulated over time. Here, we may be directed to more structural
variables, such as urbanization and attempts to consolidate democratic practice.
19
The question of parsimony also has another aspect. One of the layers of Falletis argument is the historical
condition under which decentraliza tion sequences originate. If Africa can be characterized as (post-)neopatrimonial,
we must account for decentralization in these types of states; the fact that some of these variables are those found
elsewhere in the decentralization literature further bri ngs the sequential theory into dialogue with those other
approaches. Indeed, a sequential theory could actually require as many variables as there are types of state:
developmental, post-developmental, neopatrimonial, and the like. In a sense, a main added variable here is not a
new variable at all, but simply adding variation on a key independent variable in the original theory. Considering
that variable (type of state) allows the theory to extend its empirical fit while becoming more parsimonious;
historical-institutionalism retains salience in showing how trajectories play out, but it would necessarily cede some
causal primacy to other variables such as party-state configurations.

24