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February 7, 2015
Updated: February 7, 2015 00:33 IST
diplomacy
India-China
international relations
summit
impinge on its relationships with Russia and China, but also on its wider,
international objectives and choices.
The drivers of change in this trilateral relationship are primarily
geopolitical and economic. The civil war in Ukraine shows no sign of
abating, nor indeed does Russias involvement in the conflict. The
resurgence of the fighting in eastern Ukraine has left the peace talks in
tatters. And Russian support for the rebels has ensured that the
Ukrainian forces cannot gain the upper hand. Indeed, the Ukrainians
have suffered heavily in the recent fighting. This has led to a chorus of
calls in the West to arm the Ukrainian forces. Although U.S. President
Barack Obama has demurred against this, several influential voices
including Mr. Obamas nominee for Defence Secretary, Ashton Carter
have come out in favour of providing heavy weapons to Ukraine.
Any such move will lead Russian President Vladimir Putin to dig in his
heels still deeper. Russia already faces a raft of economic sanctions
imposed by the European Union (EU) and the U.S. The Russian
economy is apparently wilting under the one-two punch of these
sanctions and the free-fall in oil prices. The projected slowdown in
growth, the depleting foreign exchange reserves, the rising inflation, the
downgrading of Russias credit rating to junk status: all point to a
serious economic crunch. The economic sanctions have already led
relationship
outweigh
From
Indias
standpoint,
this
is
historically
unprecedented.
Back in the 1960s, the Russians first mooted the idea of selling military
equipment to Pakistan. The Indian response was swift and sharp. In a
meeting with Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin, Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi bluntly said that nothing should be done from which it could be
inferred that the Soviet Union treated India at par with Pakistan. India,
she added, was especially worried with regard to Soviet help [to
Pakistan], as such help might neutralise what we have obtained from the
architecture
exceptional space for themselves and leaves little for countries like India
to work with. This is a nice example of the G2 solutions for which
India will have to watch out.
Another instance of this might be in international trade. The joint
statement affirms that the World Trade Organization (WTO) must
remain the preeminent global forum trade. This reflects their concern
about U.S. efforts to create new regional trading blocs in Europe and
Asia. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) being negotiated by the
Obama administration aims to bring into force a very different kind of
Free Trade Agreements (FTA) in Asia-Pacific, which will bring on to
the trade agenda a new set of norms and standards. The Chinese have
been explicitly kept out of it by the Americans in the hope that China
will eventually have to come to terms with this trade agenda. Indeed, as
the TPP negotiations near completion, the Chinese have informally
conveyed to the U.S. their desire to get on board. As in climate change, a
U.S.-China convergence on this issue will hurt Indian interests.
Then again, there are issues where the three countries interests seem
closely aligned and in opposition to the U.S. They have agreed to
support a U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) resolution prohibiting
intervention and forced regime change. This cuts against the idea of
Responsibility to Protect (R2P), which was introduced by the western
India-China-Russia
bilateral
relations, trilateral
relations, India-Russia
bilateral
realtions, Sino-India