Cheap Oil and the Creation of New Enemies: A New Chapter in The War Between Cultures

The recent crash in oil prices has been engineered by the Saudis and various Gulf emirs only partly as a
way of bringing other oil producers to heel. The more important reason is to wage economic war against
Iran which is an existential threat to the Sunni-dominated regimes in the area. The Saudis are not all that
concerned about ISIS; they were probably involved in the original formation of that group and it has
been extensively funded by groups and individuals in the Sunni-ruled countries.
Iran is a Shiite theocracy and has worked hard to undermine all the work done by Americans in Iraq.
Their objective is to control Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and to destabilize the Sunni kingdoms and emirates
to the south and west of them. They provide backing for militias organized by Iraqi Shiite political
groups, many of whom have gone to Syria to fight to defend the Assad regime.
Iran has extensively sponsored Hezbollah, a Shiite Lebanese militia who have shown that they have the
ability to at least stop Israel from dominating Lebanon and who have had considerable success in
propping up the Assad regime in Syria. Iran may be economically weak but they have access to a large
number of motivated fighters who dont cost all that much to keep in the field.
The initial ISIS victories in Iraq led to the disintegration of much of the Iraqi army. In a panic, the U.S. and
various allies rushed to assist, relying initially on the Kurds to stiffen resistance and in due course,
turning a blind eye to a massive new involvement of the Iranians. The U.S. cannot allow Iraq to fall to
ISIS since that would reveal the whole effort in Iraq to be an abject failure. Being unable to field an army
themselves for political reasons, the Americans are at least tolerating the Iranian domination of the land
war in the central part of Iraq.
Shiites form the majority of Iraqs population and have come to completely dominate the government in
Baghdad, with predictable effects on the Sunni minority, who are a majority in the areas controlled by
the ISIS caliphate. This is not a coincidence; what is going on is a religious civil war catalyzed by ISIS but
rooted in the oppression of the Sunnis by Baghdad. Oppression combined with incompetence yields
disaster.
The current Shiite offensive in the Tikrit area of Iraq shows us what the future holds. The overall
commander is a general seconded from an elite part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The bulk of the
force consists of party militias and returnees from Syria armed, equipped and paid by Iran. There are
enough Iraqi Army troops to provide window dressing but they are mostly Shia as well. There are some
Sunni tribesmen involved, but they probably represent the forces of opportunism, bowing to the wave
of the future which is seen to be Iran.
It is instructive that the western coalition is not providing air support to the Tikrit operation. It may be
dawning on some that a new enemy is being created: a Shiite army capable of defeating ISIS and then
carrying out the plans of Iran to control the area all the way to the Mediterranean. After that, they
might threaten to turn south. We have an Iranian-dominated army on the borders of Kuwait and the
main Saudi oil fields are only a few hundred kilometers away, in an area with a largely Shia population.

The potential for their own elimination has certainly occurred to the Sunni monarchs and thus we have
the oil war. A date with the Hangman concentrates the mind wonderfully. The decline in oil revenue also
strikes at Russia which is both a major supplier of arms and nuclear technology to Iran and largely
dependent on selling oil. That is probably a large part of the reason why Washington is fence-sitting
about the oil war: it hurts the Russians and at the same time boosts the oil-consuming economies. In any
case, if Russia and Iran run out of money, their grander religious and nuclear dreams might be stifled.
However, the alliance with the Sunni monarchs is shaky as they have come to expect the United States
to always be a day late and a brick short of a load.
On the other side of the ledger, both China and India have seen fit to help Russia and Iran evade western
sanctions. That provides them with cheap oil and access to Russian military technology at moderate
prices. It also helps to slowly erode American influence and fits in with plans to establish an alternate
financial system beyond U.S. control. We will see how far they are willing to go to prevent a
Western/Sunni victory.