Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System Feasibility Study

Final Report

MVA Asia Ltd.

23.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

23.1

Network Development
The Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System (LRMTS) Feasibility Study has identified a plan
for a Long Term Network serving the whole of Lahore city; and from this network
selected a preferred or Priority Line for feasibility study by this Study and further design
and implementation by subsequent studies.
The Long Term Network is made up of four lines in the following order of priority:

Green Line Ferozepur Road/Mall Road/Ravi Bridge/Shahdara

Orange Line Multan Road/GT Road

Blue Line Township/Gulberg Boulevard/Jail Road

Purple Line Bhati Gate/Allama Iqbal Road/Airport

The Long Term Network has the following features:

4 line phased network with interchange between LRMTS lines and with other
transport services

covers major commercial, residential corridors, and employment centres

high density coverage in the CBD area

connectivity with proposed main bus terminals

interchange with Pakistan National Railway at Lahore Main Station

direct link to Allama Iqbal International Airport

Upgrading of Pakistan Railway to a 15-minute headway commuter-type service results

in only modest level of patronage.
This is a reflection of the low density of its
catchment and its low speed due to its lack of segregation from pedestrians and traffic.
The patronage forecasts determined that the priority corridor was the Green Line along
Ferozepur Road. This line not only attracted the highest patronage but also runs
through the heart of the city along Mall Road and crosses the Ravi River to terminate at
the proposed major multi-modal terminal. By providing a north-south line across the
city, it also follows the main axis on which the city is developing.
At the commencement of the study it was announced that the alignment of the Lahore
Ring Road (LRR) project would follow the Ferozepur Road Corridor from Ghazi Road in
the south to Camp Jail near Mazang Chongi/Qurtaba Interchange in the north.
Subsequently it became known that the LRR alignment would be in the centre of
Ferozepur Road, at grade south of Canal and on elevated viaduct north of the Canal.
The Study evaluated several options for interface between the LRMTS and LRR along

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Ferozepur Road and concluded that the LRMTS should be elevated south of Model
Town North Station and underground from there onward to the north.
It was also proposed that the design of the two projects along Ferozepur Road should be
coordinated and integrated. Accordingly, the LRMTS Priority (Green) Line Study would
include the design of the LRR and its two interchanges at Canal and Camp Jail.
The Study concluded that it is both appropriate and highly desirable to provide a railbased rapid mass transit system to improve access to the central area of the city and the
corridors to the north and south. The LRMTS will provide substantial benefits to
travellers, as it will offer a faster and more convenient transport system than can be
provided by a road-based system.
23.2

Transport Planning and Patronage Forecasts

The patronage and revenue forecasts for the LRMTS are based on a comprehensive
traffic and public transport survey of existing travel conditions, state of the art computerbased transport planning software and the latest 2001 Masterplan for Lahore.
The forecasts are based on a fare scale for the LRMTS similar to existing air-conditioned
bus fares and assume that the population of Lahore will grow from 8.7 million in 2005
to 14.1 million in 2021, an average of 3.1% per annum.
The Priority (Green) Line of the LRMTS is forecast attract a daily ridership of about
211,000 after opening rising to over 426,000 by 2021. The 2021 forecast represents
about 10% of all the existing public transport users in the city, with the vast majority
(over 90%) being drawn from buses. Over 60% of RMT users need a bus ride at one end
of their RMT journey, and 10% at both ends.
The Priority Line would put Humza Town within 30 minutes of the city centre and
Shahdara within 10-12 minutes of the city centre.
The LRMTS Green Line will reduce the amount of road traffic, and help to reduce
congestion and improve environmental conditions in the central area and along the
main north-south radials. The main benefits will be in passenger time savings (both
public transport and others) and savings in vehicle operating costs. There will be a
considerable savings in buses with the Priority Line in place. The maximum savings are
on Ferozepur Road and Mall Road where reductions of up to 300 and 570 buses per
hour (2-way) respectively can be achieved.

23.3

Alignment
The alignment of the Priority Line (Green Line) commences in the southeast of Lahore
from the main depot in Humza Town along Ferozepur Road to Fatima Jinnah Road, The
Mall, Lower Mall, Ravi Road, and across River Ravi to a multi-modal Bus and LRMTS
terminal in Shahdara Bagh. Starting from the south the key features of the alignment are
detailed in Table 23.1 below.

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Table 23.1

Priority (Green) Line Alignment Details

Section

Humza Town to Northeast corner of Model

Town
Northeast corner of Model Town to Data
Darbar via Qurtaba Chowk, Fatima Jinnah
Road, the Mall to Data Darbar
Data Darbar to across River Ravi to Shahdara,
via Lower Mall, and Timber Market
Total Length

Alignment Type

Length
(km)

Elevated Viaduct

10.1

Underground in cut
and cover or twin
bored tunnels

12.4

Elevated Viaduct

4.5
27.0

The elevated sections of the Priority Line will be constructed on U-shape viaduct
structure on columns located in the centre of the existing roadway. Underground
sections of the line will generally be constructed in twin bored tunnels underneath the
existing roadway.
23.4

Stations
Twenty-two (22) stations are proposed along the entire length of the line. Table 23.2
shows the main features of these stations, of which 10 are elevated and 12 are
underground.
Table 23.2

Priority Line Stations

Station Type and Description

Multi-modal (Interchange with Intercity Buses) Terminal Stations
Other Elevated Stations
Interchange Stations with Other LRMTS Lines
Other Underground Stations
Total Stations

Number of Stations
2
8
5
7
22

Stations and their entrances have been located to maximise the catchment. The stations
are spaced at approximately 1 km intervals along the developed sections of the
alignment to reflect passengers maximum walking distance of 500-600 metres.
Underground stations would generally be constructed by cut and cover construction
method. All stations would be double-decked with platforms and concourse on
separate levels to facilitate passenger distribution and access from both sides of the
alignment.
23.5

Transit System
The proposed LRMTS will be a modern world class urban rapid transit system, built and
operated to international standards and designed for at least a 30-year life span. A
Medium Capacity Transit System is proposed for the LRMTS, as having the flexibility in
design and operation to cover the full range of LRMTS forecasts from the design capacity

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of 15,000 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd) to the ultimate capacity of 30,000
pphpd.
Initially, the proposed train is would consist of 4-car configuration. However, to allow
for future growth in demand, the line and station infrastructure will be built with
provision to accommodate longer trains of up to 8-cars in length, i.e. twice the size of
the concept train, providing an ultimate capacity of around 30,000
passenger/hour/direction.
Based on the ultimate design flow of 30,000 pphpd, the station platforms will need to
be at least 100 metres in length.
23.6

Geology
Geotechnical investigation reports and site visits have given an idea of the subsurface
geological layer. The soils encountered by the LRMTS Priority Line are a mix of silt clay
and sands. Further ground investigation should be carried out for the next design phase.

23.7

Tunnels
Except the transition from elevated, all underground sections of the alignment will be in
twin tube bored tunnels. The tunnels will be constructed by Tunnel Boring Machine
(TBM). This method of construction is most cost effective, given the ground conditions
and the 10 km tunnel length, and least disruptive to the inner city environment through
which the tunnel section passes.
The transition sections from elevated to underground, and all underground stations will
be constructed by cut and cover tunnel, in which the tunnel or station box is excavated
from the surface and then covered over after completion.

23.8

Viaducts
The U-shape viaduct system is proposed for the elevated sections of the LRMTS. This
system is based on a unique design of precast sections, manufactured off site and then
assembled on site. It has the advantages of being faster, less disruptive and cheaper to
construct, and having built-in noise barriers and being less visually intrusive during
operation. Other advantages of the system are that the top of the U is used as a safety
walkway and the sides of the U are used to house the cables. The U-shape is also
integrated into the design and construction of the elevated stations, giving significant
construction time savings and resulting in a lower station profile with easier access for
passengers.
For most of its length, the viaduct will consist of short spans, simply supported on single
columns at 25-metre spacing in the central median of the roadway. For road crossings
and the crossing of the Ravi River, the spans just need to be made longer.

23.9

Operations
Trains will operate at a 2-minute headway during peak periods, reducing to a 4-minute
headway during off-peak periods. The increase in capacity required as patronage
increases over time will be achieved by increasing the number of cars in each train. In

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this way, an attractive headway can be offered in early years of lower patronage through
the operation of shorter trains.
23.10

Depot
The depot will be located at the southern end of the Priority Line, to the west of Shadab
Colony station and as close as possible to the terminal station of Hamza Town.
An additional Stabling Yard is proposed at the northern end of the line, in Shahdara, to
the east of the terminal station.

23.11

Engineering Systems
The signalling system will be designed to ensure train safety, control train movements,
and direct train operations at the highest practicable levels of service to passengers. The
operating concept for LRMTS will be based on Automatic Train Control system (ATC)
including Automatic Train Protection (ATP), Automatic train Operation (ATO) and
Automatic Train Supervision (ATS).
Trains will be powered by a third rail with 750V DC current. This system is preferred to
overhead power supply to reduce visual intrusion along elevated sections and to
minimise the tunnel size of underground sections. Third rail is also simpler and easier to
maintain.
Fares will be collected by Automatic Fare Collection (AFC), which is simple and cost
effective, reduces fraud, automates ticket sales, checking and accounting, and offers full
ticketing flexibility, including full electronic ticketing. The system consists of a staffed
ticket office and self-service Ticket Vending Machines (TVM), where passengers can buy
a ticket for their journey; self-service Add Value Machines (AVM), where passengers
having a stored value ticket can increase the residual value; and Fare Gates, which
check the validity of tickets on entry and exit.

23.12

Land
Land will need to be acquired for the project and the designs have minimised the extent
of private land affected. At this stage only the main areas of land that will need to be
acquired can be identified. A more detailed picture will emerge in the next more
detailed phase of design, when the precise locations of stations, entrances, tunnel
ventilation shafts and work sites will be defined.
The permanent requirements are those required for the completed LRMTS in operation.
These include the land required at ground level for elevated structure, station entrances,
ventilation shafts (tunnel and station), station equipment (cooling towers, power
generators, chiller plants, etc.), footbridges, depot site and stabling area.
The main areas of land required are for the South Depot, at around 150,000 square
metres, and for the North Stabling Yard, at about 50,000 square metres.

23.13

Planning and Programming

Following the presentation and submission of the Feasibility Study report and Terms of
Reference for the Reference Design in August 2006, it is anticipated that this will allow

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the Government to proceed with Reference design, environmental impact assessment

and land acquisition for the LRMTS Priority Line in 2006.
Some initial construction can also commence in 2007, with the complex detail design
spanning 2008. The main construction is programmed from mid 2008 to end 2011.
This would be followed by 6 months testing and commissioning, and allowing the
system to open in mid 2012.
The critical part of the programme is the civil works construction, and in particular the
construction of the 12 underground stations.
23.14

Environmental
The environmental impacts of the Priority Line will be minimised by the choice of
underground alignment in central areas of the city, especially along Mall Road. Elevated
sections are limited to outer parts of the city where the roads are wider and
development less sensitive. The U-shape design of viaducts and the adoption of third
rail power supply will also reduce noise and visual intrusion.
No particular problems during construction provided normal good practice is followed,
and the use of U-shape viaduct will minimise construction time, disruption to traffic,
and allow normal street activity to be maintained during construction.

23.15

Costs
The capital cost of the Priority Line has been estimated at PKR 145.9 billion (US$ 2.4
billion). The total operating and maintenance costs are estimated at PKR 1.7 billion
(US$ 29 million) per annum. These costs will need to be refined during the subsequent
design phases.

23.16

Benefits
The main economic benefits of the LRMTS are passenger time savings and savings in
vehicle operating costs. The value of these benefits more than cover the operating costs
of the Priority Line and produce an economic internal rate of return of 6%.
The main financial benefits are revenue from ticket sales, advertising and any joint
development opportunities. The revenue forecasts cover the operating costs but not the
capital costs and produce a financial internal rate of return of 1%.
The large capital investment, made over several years before any returns are produced,
make it difficult for the project to provide high returns economically or financially.

23.17

Funding and Institutional

Like all MRT projects, the LRMTS will be costly. Revenues cover operating costs but not
capital cost. Therefore, Government will need to fund most of the capital cost of US$
2.4 billion. The most likely sources of funding are either a large soft loan or a Federal
Government grant or a combination of both. Private sector involvement will be limited
to operating the system.

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The recommended form of financing the LRMTS is therefore a lease contract in which
Government finances and builds the system and the private sector provides the rolling
stock and operates the system. In this case, the financial internal rate of return to the
private sector could increase to over 10%. This is close to an acceptable level and a
workable basis on which to proceed.
The role of Government with this arrangement would include making policies and
plans, supervising the design and construction, regulate all transport modes, providing
the funds and financial guarantees and owning the land.
The role of the private sector would be to design and construct, operate and maintain
the system and supply the rolling stock.
It is recommended that Government Set up a dedicated LRMT Authority under
Secretary Transport with a full-time technical staff to direct and coordinate LRMTS
project and let contracts; use consultants for design and construction; and establish two
standing coordinating committees, a Project Steering Committee and a Technical
Coordinating Committee to ensure that all departments with responsibilities related to
LRMTS construction and integration are committed to the implementation strategy and
their programmes are fully coordinated.
23.18

LRR Interface
An 11 km segment of the LRR shares the same corridor as the LRMTS Priority Line
between Khaire Distributary in the south and Shama Cinema near Camp Jail in the
north.
While the vertical alignments of the two projects do not conflict, in designing the LRMTS
it is necessary to take account of the construction of the future LRR structures and
foundations. The LRMTS design will therefore need to make provision for the future
detailed engineering design and construction of the LRR.
At this stage of the study, it is assumed that the LRR would be constructed after the
LRMTS is completed. This would be essential for the section from Kalma Chowk to
Camp Jail where the LRR is at grade or elevated and the LRMTS alignment and stations
are underground. The LRMTS stations will need to incorporate the columns for the LRR
above.
It is also desirable that the LRR is constructed after the LRMTS from Khaire Distributary
to Kalma Chowk. If not, the LRR design must allow for the subsequent excavation of
LRMTS columns and the construction of stations, which would involve temporary
closure of parts of the LRR to construct the columns and stations of the LRMTS.

23.19

Next Steps
The next steps in implementation of the Priority Line may be summarized as:

Proceed with the next phase LRMTS Priority Line Reference Design;

Proceed in parallel with the common section of LRR Reference Design; and

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Proceed with acquisition of land required for the LRMTS depot, stabling yard,
and stations.

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