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EVALUATION OF NATIONAL BONDS AND CURRENCIES: How rating

agencies and institutional investors evaluate bonds and currencies


Dr Nicolas Laos,
Founder and Chairman of the Research Institute for Noopolitical and
Geopolitical Studies (RINGS), www.snorder.org
Partner (Expert in Geopolitics and World Security) of R-Techno private
intelligence company, www.r-techno.org
In the present essay, I analyze the algorithm and the criteria by means of which rating
agencies and institutional investors evaluate national bonds and currencies. In
particular, the key criteria and indices according to which the aforementioned
economic actors evaluate national bonds and currencies are the following: (i) the
countrys history and geography, (ii) level of dependency, (iii) external political and
economic environment, (iv) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), (v) GDP rate of growth,
(vi) Per Capita Real GDP, (vii) the Gini Index, (viii) Unemployment Rate, (ix) the
ratio of Gross Domestic Savings to GDP, (x) the ratio of Investments to GDP, (xi) the
ratio of Gross Fixed Capital Investments to GDP, (xii) the ratio of Gross Domestic
Savings to Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Investments, (xiii) the ratio of Budget
Deficit to GDP, (xiv) the ratio of National Debt to GDP, (xv) the Rate of Inflation,
(xvi) the growth rate of Money Supply, (xvii) the Real Interest Rate, (xviii) the
growth rate of Exports, (xix) the VAREX Index (Variance of Exports), (xx) the
growth rate of Imports, (xxi) Strategic Exports and Strategic Imports, (xxii) the ratio
of Exports to Imports, (xxiii) the ratio of Current Account Balance to GDP, (xxiv)
Foreign-Exchange Reserves, (xxv) Foreign Debt, (xxvi) the ratio of Foreign Debt to
GDP, (xxvii) the ratio of Foreign Debt to Exports, (xxviii) the ratio of Short-Term
Debt to Foreign-Exchange Reserves, (xxix) the countrys Monetary Policy, (xxx) the
countrys domestic banking and financial system, and (xxxi) the countrys cultural
diplomacy, and its image in the international system.

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Research Institute for Noopolitical and Geopolitical
Studies (RINGS), www.snorder.org
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R-Techno private intelligence company, www.r-techno.org
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: Moodys, Fitch, Standard & Poor,
Economist Intelligence Unit, Euromoney, Institutional Investor, Political Risk Services,
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of Image and Reputation, Foreign Affairs, vol. 80, 2001, . 3).
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H.N. Tuch -
(H.N. Tuch, Communicating with the World, New York: St Martins
Press, 1990). , Tuch,
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