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INTEGRANTES:
EDGAR ROLANDO MATUTE
LUIS CARLOS TURCIOS
MARVIN GEOVANY FLORES
MERY SANDRA SANDOVAL
OSCAR ROLANDO MATAMOROS
ANEXO 5
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
PRONOSTICO DE FLUJO DE CAJA, FRANKFURT
(EXPRESADO EN MILES DE DM)
AO
SUPOSICIONES
Numero de habitaciones
Das en el ao
Ocupacin promedio
Tarifa promedio por habitacin (DM)
Cambio porcentual diario promedio
Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos
Honorarios de la oficina central de Marriott
Tipo Impositivo
Pago de alquiler fijo anual
Alquiler complementario al Buren
Factor de ajuste por riesgo de pas
Inversin de capital (DM)
INGRESOS
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
qw
UTILIDADES POR DEPARTAMENTO
1989
950
365
60%
178
-30%
3%
60%
10,000
2.0%
0.99
28800
37,033
10,255
9,686
56,974
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
Utilidades Departamentales Totales
25,553
1,128
2,228
28,909
GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS
Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos
Oficina central de Marriott
Otros gastos totales
Ganancias antes de intereses, alquileres e impuestos
17,092
1,709
18,801
10,108
Gastos de impuestos
Ganancias antes de intereses, alquileres y despues de impuestos
6,065
4,043
Depreciacin
Gastos de capital
1,400
1,250
4,193
GASTOS DE ALQUILER
Alquiler mnimo
Alquiler mnimo despues de impuestos
Alquiler complementario
Alquiler complementario despues de impuestos
10,000
4,000
1,139
456
CUENTA
11223125
11223150
11213300
11223035
11223114
1989
Tasas
65.0%
18.0%
17.0%
100.0%
1990
1990
Tasas
1991
1991
Tasas
1992
1993
1994
64%
194.73
9.4%
30%
67%
202.52
4.0%
30%
67%
210.62
4.0%
30%
67%
219.05
4.0%
30%
67%
227.81
4.0%
30%
2.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
48,932
9,786
6,524
65,243
50,890
10,178
6,785
67,853
52,925
10,585
7,057
70,567
43,215
9,878
8,643
61,736
70.0%
16.0%
14.0%
100.0%
47,050
9,410
6,273
62,733
75.0%
15.0%
10.0%
100.0%
69.0%
11.0%
23.0%
50.7%
31,547
1,284
2,074
34,905
73.0%
13.0%
24.0%
56.5%
37,170
1,553
1,506
40,229
79.0%
16.5%
24.0%
64.1%
38,657
1,615
1,566
41,838
40,203
1,680
1,629
43,512
41,811
1,747
1,694
45,252
30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
17.7%
18,521
1,852
20,373
14,532
30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
23.5%
18,820
1,882
20,702
19,527
30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
31.1%
19,573
1,957
21,530
20,308
20,356
2,036
22,391
21,120
21,170
2,117
23,287
21,965
60.0%
7.1%
8,719
5,813
60.0%
9.4%
11,716
7,811
60.0%
12.5%
12,185
8,123
12,672
8,448
13,179
8,786
2.5%
2.2%
1800
1700
2.9%
2.8%
1700
1800
2.7%
2.9%
1700
1900
2200
2200
2100
2000
7,923
8,448
8,886
10,000
4,000
1,631
652
10,000
4,000
1,696
679
10,000
4,000
1,764
706
5,913
17.6%
7.0%
2.0%
0.8%
10,000
4,000
1,235
494
7,711
16.2%
6.5%
2.0%
0.8%
10,000
4,000
1,255
502
15.9%
6.4%
2.0%
0.8%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
67%
236.92
4.0%
30%
67%
244.03
3.0%
30%
67%
251.35
3.0%
30%
67%
258.89
3.0%
30%
67%
266.66
3.0%
30%
67%
274.66
3.0%
30%
67%
282.90
3.0%
30%
67%
291.38
3.0%
30%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
55,042
11,008
7,339
73,389
56,693
11,339
7,559
75,591
58,394
11,679
7,786
77,859
60,146
12,029
8,019
80,195
61,950
12,390
8,260
82,600
63,809
12,762
8,508
85,078
65,723
13,145
8,763
87,631
67,695
13,539
9,026
90,260
43,484
1,817
1,762
47,062
44,788
1,871
1,815
48,474
46,132
1,927
1,869
49,928
47,516
1,985
1,925
51,426
48,941
2,045
1,983
52,969
50,409
2,106
2,042
54,558
51,922
2,169
2,104
56,195
53,479
2,234
2,167
57,881
22,017
2,202
24,218
22,844
22,677
2,268
24,945
23,529
23,358
2,336
25,693
24,235
24,058
2,406
26,464
24,962
24,780
2,478
27,258
25,711
25,524
2,552
28,076
26,482
26,289
2,629
28,918
27,277
27,078
2,708
29,786
28,095
13,706
9,138
14,117
9,412
14,541
9,694
14,977
9,985
15,427
10,284
15,889
10,593
16,366
10,911
16,857
11,238
1950
2000
1930
2000
1920
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
9,088
9,342
9,614
9,885
10,184
10,493
10,811
11,138
10,000
4,000
2,569
1,027
10,000
4,000
2,646
1,058
10,000
4,000
2,725
1,090
10,000
4,000
2,807
1,123
10,000
4,000
2,891
1,156
10,000
4,000
2,978
1,191
10,000
4,000
3,067
1,227
10,000
4,000
3,159
1,264
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
67%
300.12
3.0%
30%
67%
309.13
3.0%
30%
67%
318.40
3.0%
30%
67%
327.95
3.0%
30%
67%
337.79
3.0%
30%
67%
347.93
3.0%
30%
67%
358.36
3.0%
30%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
69,726
13,945
9,297
92,967
71,818
14,364
9,575
95,756
73,972
14,794
9,863
98,629
76,191
15,238
10,159
101,588
78,477
15,695
10,463
104,636
80,831
16,166
10,777
107,775
83,256
16,651
11,101
111,008
55,084
2,301
2,232
59,617
56,736
2,370
2,299
61,406
58,438
2,442
2,368
63,248
60,192
2,515
2,439
65,145
61,997
2,590
2,512
67,100
63,857
2,668
2,587
69,113
65,773
2,748
2,665
71,186
27,890
2,789
30,679
28,938
28,727
2,873
31,600
29,806
29,589
2,959
32,548
30,700
30,476
3,048
33,524
31,621
31,391
3,139
34,530
32,570
32,332
3,233
35,566
33,547
33,302
3,330
36,633
34,553
17,363
11,575
17,884
11,922
18,420
12,280
18,973
12,648
19,542
13,028
20,128
13,419
20,732
13,821
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
11,475
11,822
12,180
12,548
12,928
13,319
13,721
10,000
4,000
3,254
1,302
10,000
4,000
3,351
1,341
10,000
4,000
3,452
1,381
10,000
4,000
3,556
1,422
10,000
4,000
3,662
1,465
10,000
4,000
3,772
1,509
10,000
4,000
3,885
1,554
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
67%
369.12
3.0%
30%
67%
380.19
3.0%
30%
67%
391.59
3.0%
30%
67%
403.34
3.0%
30%
67%
415.44
3.0%
30%
67%
427.91
3.0%
30%
67%
440.74
3.0%
30%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
85,754
17,151
11,434
114,338
88,326
17,665
11,777
117,768
90,976
18,195
12,130
121,301
93,706
18,741
12,494
124,940
96,517
19,303
12,869
128,689
99,412
19,882
13,255
132,549
102,395
20,479
13,652
136,526
67,746
2,831
2,745
73,322
69,778
2,915
2,827
75,521
71,872
3,003
2,912
77,787
74,028
3,093
2,999
80,120
76,249
3,186
3,089
82,524
78,536
3,281
3,182
85,000
80,892
3,380
3,278
87,550
34,301
3,430
37,732
35,590
35,331
3,533
38,864
36,658
36,390
3,639
40,029
37,757
37,482
3,748
41,230
38,890
38,607
3,861
42,467
40,057
39,765
3,976
43,741
41,258
40,958
4,096
45,054
42,496
21,354
14,236
21,995
14,663
22,654
15,103
23,334
15,556
24,034
16,023
24,755
16,503
25,498
16,998
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
14,136
14,563
15,003
15,456
15,923
16,403
16,898
10,000
4,000
4,002
1,601
10,000
4,000
4,122
1,649
10,000
4,000
4,246
1,698
10,000
4,000
4,373
1,749
10,000
4,000
4,504
1,802
10,000
4,000
4,639
1,856
10,000
4,000
4,778
1,911
2017
2018
67%
453.97
3.0%
30%
67%
467.58
3.0%
30%
3.5%
3.5%
105,466
21,093
14,062
140,622
108,630
21,726
14,484
144,840
AO
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Alquiler
complementario
despues de
impuestos
456
494
502
652
679
706
1027
1058
1090
1123
1156
1191
1227
1264
1302
1341
1381
1422
1465
1509
83,319
3,481
3,376
90,176
85,819
3,586
3,477
92,882
42,186
4,219
46,405
43,771
43,452
4,345
47,797
45,084
26,263
17,508
27,051
18,034
1900
2000
1900
2000
17,408
17,934
10,000
4,000
4,922
1,969
10,000
4,000
5,069
2,028
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1554
1601
1649
1698
1749
1802
1856
1911
1969
2028
ANEXO 6
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
PRONOSTICO DEL FLUJO DE CAJA, DUSSELDORF
(EN MILES DE DM)
AO
SUPOSICIONES
Numero de habitaciones
Das en el ao
Ocupacin promedio
Tarifa promedio por habitacin (DM)
Cambio porcentual diario promedio
Gastos generales, de ventas y administrativos
Honorarios de la oficina central de Marriott
Tipo Impositivo
Pago de alquiler fijo anual
Factor de ajuste por riesgo de pas
INGRESOS
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
Ingreso total
1989
200
365
65%
130
-30%
3%
60%
1,000
0.99
6,169
4,598
561
11,328
UTILIDADES DEPARTAMENTALES
Habitaciones
Alimentacin y bebidas
Otros
Total de Utilidades Departamentales
3,886
460
90
4,436
GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS
Ventas, generales y administrativos
Honorarios de oficina central de Marriott
Total otros gastos
Ingreso antes de gastos de alquiler, intereses e impuestos
3,398
340
3,738
698
Gastos de impuestos
Ingreso antes de gastos de alquiler e intereses y despues de gasto
419
279
Depreciacin
Gastos de capital
320
440
159.17
Alquiler de terreno
Alquiler de terreno despues de impuestos
Refugio tributario para el alquiler del terreno
FLUJO NETO
1,000
400
600
Tasas
1990
Tasas
67%
134.55
3.5%
30%
1991
Tasas
68%
139.26
3.5%
30%
1992
1993
1994
68%
143.44
3.0%
30%
68%
147.74
3.0%
30%
68%
151.43
2.5%
30%
54.5%
40.6%
5.0%
100.0%
6,581
4,618
346
11,545
57.0%
40.0%
3.0%
100.0%
6,913
4,378
230
11,521
60.0%
38.0%
2.0%
100.0%
7,120
4,509
237
11,867
7,334
4,645
244
12,223
7,517
4,761
250
12,528
63.0%
10.0%
16.0%
39.2%
4,212
531
59
4,802
64.0%
11.5%
17.1%
41.6%
4,424
503
41
4,968
65.0%
11.5%
17.8%
43.1%
4,628
518
42
5,188
4,767
534
43
5,344
4,886
547
45
5,478
30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
6.2%
3,464
346
3,810
992
30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
8.6%
3,456
346
3,802
1,166
30.0%
3.0%
33.0%
10.1%
3,560
356
3,916
1,272
3,667
367
4,033
1,311
3,758
376
4,134
1,343
60.0%
2.5%
595
397
60.0%
3.4%
700
466
60.0%
4.0%
763
509
786
524
806
537
2.8%
3.9%
360
530
3.1%
4.6%
470
550
4.1%
4.8%
520
580
530
580
530
580
449
474
487
227
386
8.8%
3.5%
1,000
400
600
8.7%
3.5%
1,000
400
600
8.7%
3.5%
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
68%
155.22
2.5%
30%
68%
159.10
2.5%
30%
68%
162.28
2.0%
30%
68%
165.53
2.0%
30%
68%
168.84
2.0%
30%
68%
171.37
1.5%
30%
68%
173.94
1.5%
30%
68%
176.55
1.5%
30%
7,705
4,880
256
12,841
7,898
5,002
263
13,162
8,056
5,102
268
13,426
8,217
5,204
273
13,694
8,381
5,308
279
13,968
8,507
5,388
283
14,178
8,634
5,469
287
14,390
8,764
5,551
292
14,606
5,008
561
46
5,615
5,134
575
47
5,755
5,236
586
48
5,870
5,341
598
49
5,988
5,448
610
50
6,107
5,529
619
50
6,199
5,612
628
51
6,292
5,697
638
52
6,386
3,852
385
4,238
1,377
3,949
395
4,344
1,411
4,028
403
4,430
1,440
4,108
411
4,519
1,468
4,190
419
4,609
1,498
4,253
425
4,679
1,520
4,317
432
4,749
1,543
4,382
438
4,820
1,566
826
551
847
565
864
576
881
587
899
599
912
608
926
617
940
627
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
501
515
526
537
549
558
567
577
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
68%
178.32
1.0%
30%
68%
180.10
1.0%
30%
68%
181.90
1.0%
30%
68%
183.72
1.0%
30%
68%
185.56
1.0%
30%
68%
187.41
1.0%
30%
8,852
5,606
294
14,752
8,940
5,662
297
14,900
9,030
5,719
300
15,049
9,120
5,776
303
15,199
9,211
5,834
306
15,351
9,303
5,892
310
15,505
5,754
644
52
6,450
5,811
651
53
6,515
5,869
657
54
6,580
5,928
664
54
6,646
5,987
670
55
6,712
6,047
677
55
6,779
4,426
443
4,868
1,582
4,470
447
4,917
1,598
4,515
451
4,966
1,614
4,560
456
5,016
1,630
4,605
461
5,066
1,646
4,651
465
5,117
1,663
949
633
959
639
968
645
978
652
988
658
998
665
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
530
580
583
589
595
602
608
615
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
1,000
400
600
ANEXO 7
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
DATOS DEL MERCADO FINANCIERO Y CAMBIARIO
Precio
1.8717
1.8615
1.8468
1.1
INFLACION DE
ESTADOS UNIDOS
3.50%
2.00%
3.00%
3.50%
4.30%
4.30%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
INFLACION DE
ALEMANIA
2.20%
-0.20%
0.20%
1.50%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
TIPO DE CAMBIO
(DM/$)
2.94
2.17
1.80
1.77
1.73
1.69
1.65
1.61
1.57
1.53
1.49
1.45
1.42
1.38
1.35
1.32
1.28
1.25
1.22
1.19
1.16
1.13
1.10
1.08
1.05
1.02
1.00
0.97
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
4.80%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
2.20%
0.95
0.93
0.90
0.88
0.86
0.84
ANEXO 8
MARRIOTT: FRANKFURT Y DUSSELDORF
RESUMEN DE ANALISIS DE FLUJO DE CAJA DESCONTADO
(EN MILES DE US$)
HOTEL DE FRANKFURT
Ao
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Factor de
Tipo de cambio Riesgo de Pais
1.77
0
1.73
0.99
1.69
0.99
1.65
0.99
1.61
0.99
1.57
0.99
1.53
0.99
1.49
0.99
1.45
0.99
1.42
0.99
1.38
0.99
1.35
0.99
1.32
0.99
1.28
0.99
1.25
0.99
1.22
0.99
1.19
0.99
1.16
0.99
1.13
0.99
1.10
0.99
1.08
0.99
1.05
0.99
1.02
0.99
1.00
0.99
0.97
0.99
0.95
0.99
0.93
0.99
0.90
0.99
0.88
0.99
0.86
0.99
0.84
0.99
Tasas de descuento
Valor Presente Neto
11.0%
59,462
Alquiler
Mnimo
0
2,289
2,343
2,400
2,460
2,522
2,588
2,658
2,731
2,789
2,870
2,933
3,000
3,094
3,168
3,246
3,328
3,414
3,504
3,600
3,667
3,771
3,882
3,960
4,082
4,168
4,258
4,400
4,500
4,605
4,714
6.5%
(39,185)
Ambos hoteles
VPN NETO ($)
(5,694)
Unicamente Frankfurt
(5,077)
HOTEL DE DUSSELDORF
Alquiler
Complementario
Inversin
de Capital
16,271
261
289
301
401
428
457
683
723
760
805
848
893
949
1,001
1,056
1,115
1,178
1,246
1,318
1,383
1,465
1,554
1,632
1,733
1,823
1,918
2,041
2,150
2,266
2,390
8.0%
(9,083)
0.0%
(16,271)
Pago de
Alquiler
91
133
232
276
299
315
333
351
367
386
403
419
439
457
473
490
508
527
548
564
229
234
240
246
252
259
266
273
279
287
293
300
309
317
325
333
341
350
360
367
11.0%
2,449
6.5%
(3,066)
Unicamente Dusseldorf
(617)