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Hi Guys!
In this thread i would share some of my Systems and Strategies and free Resources on Commodities.
Commodities I would request you
all to just co-operate
operate and add to the thread constructively because TIME is precious to each one of us.
Just Keep on tracking it for few months and keep practicing analysis and reading good books and you should be bettering your
skills each day.
Kamlesh
Post#2
PREPARATION before placing the trade on Daily basis:
I already have Weekly charts, Support/Resistance levels memorized on all 4 commodities and know what it is doing.
1. Read Weekly (on Sunday) and Daily TA on the following link.
http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/
focus/technical/
2. Check economic
conomic calender here and note the times when important news can affect my market. Also US markets Open times.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
3. Determine the 'TREND to trade With'
h' on my time frame 5 min.
Dow Theory(HH-HL/LH-LL)/Trendlines/SMA
4. Apply my SYSTEM/Strategies to Crude, Gold, Silver and look for opportunities here.
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
5. Now i watch live international charts here.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
6. Now i wait for the opportunity to satisfy me completely to place the Entry order always along with a Stop Loss order. If i am
scalping the breakout etc.
c. i would place a profit booking order too.
Kamlesh
Post#4
OPPORTUNITY TYPE - 01 : Trend Reversal.
Tools:
(a) Trend lines any time frame(TF) >=5 min. Higher the TF better.
(b) Dow Theory: HH-HL => Uptrend, LH-LL
LL => Downtrend established in the same TF.
Read as much as possible on how to draw valid Trendlines/Channels and Practice them. This is the Foundation for
Thinking among traders.
Suggested Book: Edward n Magee's 'Technical Analysis of Stock Trends'
Post#5
In the chart attached (10 min):
Dow Theory LH-LL told me that trend has changed (Self-Sufficient
(
condition for trend reversal).Now I Waited for the market to rise further so
that my Risk-Reward ratio becomes brighter.
My Stop Loss: 2-ticks above LH point.
Entry Point: As close as possible to the down-trendline
trendline (For closer look i entered on 3 min TF).
Profit booking by Parabolic SAR.
Simpler Trading, Happier Trading!
Post#7
Hi Guys!....Plz save your TIME and MONEY on charting from data from MCX as any conclusion about support/resistance,
candlesticks patterns or trendline, etc. would be WRONG. MCX trades for 13.5 hrs whereas international markets trade for 23.5
hrs a day.
Why? Because MCX trading follows international prices from NYMEX, COMEX, LME, etc.
Follow international charts only and don't ever pay a rupee to anybody either for software or data or trading system. That's not
even needed leave being worth it.
For STOCKS best and most accurate charting facility along with all basic TA tools is available on Reuters website(for free).
Suppose you want to analyze SBI click on the link:
http://in.reuters.com/finance/stocks...?symbol=SBI.NS
For COMMODITIES: Suppose you want Silver at your desktop:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
Reuters, eSignal.com, Quote.com all are among the best data vendors in the world. Just their free service is 10-12 min delayed
with real time data. Highest accuracy is what i want, which is here, no doubts.
If you want just 30 seconds delayed data for Crude Oil, Gold, Silver go to this link.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
'Higher the TF better the profitability' so 10-12 min delay doesn't affect my trade plan. So where is the need for paying a single
paisa to any vendor?
For expert technical analysis also on daily basis here are the links:
http://www.reuterstechnicals.com/cat...ls/daily-nifty
http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/
Plz don't ask anybody for tips, check out above links and plan your trade and be self-reliant.
Also you may track my thread and start practicing TA, it's all in the books and out of secret boxes. Anyone can read and learn
and trade profitably.
We don't have to discover the Wheel again and again.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#8
For the New traders let me detail my abbreviations.
TF: Time Frame
LH: Lower High
HH: Higher High
LL: Lower Low
HL: Higher Low
LME: London Metal Exchange
COMEX: Commodity Exchange, Inc., USA
NYMEX: NewYork Mercantile Exchange
TA: Technical Analysis.
SL: Stop Loss order
For any other query, post it. Any of the fellow brothers would answer it as soon as possible.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#9
US Markets Open times in IST:
COMEX : 5:50 PM Indian Standard Time (IST)
S&P500: 7:00 PM IST
NYMEX: 8:00 PM IST
Due to 'day light saving' theses times would get delayed by one hour after last Sunday of October.
All these market open and have effect on Gold, Silver, Crude prices.
Later we would discuss how to exploit these times.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#12
Quote:
Post#16
This is my Trade of the Year!
I waited patiently market kissing the trendline and was rewarded handsomely.
Theorem 01: During a Downtrend Highs/SwingHighs are to be watched first. (Similarly for an Uptrend)
Corollary of Theorem 1: If Highs/SwingHighs have been carefully treaded by the traders, take a note of this weakness in you
analysis.
Well...Fibonacci Levels are there in the chart. Note that at the Equillibrium Point of 50% Values matched exactly. That boosted
my confidence about my line of thinking.
OABC is my own line of thinking and terminology.
Theorem-02 " Price Momentum can not be killed abruptly where masses are involved. Every MOVE shall have a FOLLOW-UP
move"
OA - MOVE
BC - FOLLOW-UP
Profit Booking by Heikin-Ashi candles- 1 candle back.
Market Action:
Before O : It was BUYING
O to B : SELLING for profit Booking on Long Positions
B to A : Short SELLING then
A to B : Short COVERING, exhausts at B
From 'Confirming' to C: Fresh Short SELLING
It is very important to know what the Market's Activity is.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#17
Favorite Trade Set Up: 02/08/2011
(5 min Crude chart)
(a) Fantastic Reward/Risk ratio
(b) HH
(c) Trendline Support
Market made me smile:
Volume increased immediately in my direction.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#24
Originally Posted by amanfree
i hope u r enjoying gold and silver bull run
Yup! but time for consolidation is not far as on weekly charts it has already met its upper channel line. So it's time
for trailing SL profit booking.
Great news is that S&P 500 has done all the wrong things in the last few days broken 200 DMA for the first time after a long
timeincluding a LH-LL.. So, I think Gold still has a lot to go Higher. May be silver too will be dragged UP.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#25
Originally Posted by uttamkamlesh
Yup! but time for consolidation is not far as on weekly charts it has already met its upper channel line. So it's time
for trailing SL profit booking.
Great news is that S&P 500 has done all the wrong things in the last few days broken 200 DMA for the first time after a long
time including a LH-LL.. So, I think Gold still has a lot to go Higher. May be silver too will be dragged UP.
Kamlesh Uttam
It all happened today.....
Post#27
Well....See how without any complex indicators you can make Entry and Exit in Gold. Beauty is that Gold is in well Established
Establishe
Bull market, THE
E GREAT TREND. It would shout like anything before reversing no matter double dip recession or triple dip
recession surfaces.
Theorem 03: A TREND IS INTACT UNLESS PROVED OTHERWISE.
OTHERWISE
Corollary:: or in other words (Jesse Livermore even says): When in doubt, assume
sume that the trend is intact. TREND would save
you from any big trouble.
Post#28
MY TRADE OF THE YEAR - 02
Hi Guys!....Enjoy the chart.
Note the Reasons of Entry (as usual):
(a) Bearish Trendline
(b) LH-LL
Post#30
Hi Guys....
Look at the chart:
Why i did not enter the trade.
Post#31
Quote:
Post#32
Hi Guys,
These are the two trades i took in the last week. Second one turned out to be MASSIVE one due to recession fears.
I find trading commodities a lot easier as they TREND too often and keep on trending unless proved otherwise.
And there are not daily Gap open/down issues, no CEOs getting arrested. No inquiries for Gold or Silver. No
financial results etc.
Well it's up to you if you can benefit from the GREAT TREND.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#33
Guys....Check out this trade of mine.
27/06/2011 : (05 min)
KEEP on REPEATING THE SAME THING AGAIN and AGAIN and become a winner. Best Wishes!
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#34
Hi Guys!.....meanwhile let me introduce myself.
I am a day-jobber, an IITian, employed in a PSU, R&D division. Have done teaching too so i try to simplify complicated things
.
Well.... i heard the word 'Technical Analysis' on TV then googled it and came to know that markets provide information which can
be processed to benefit from it. There are tools and a huge experience of legendary traders.
I kept on reading and reading. I attacked Dow Theory first and then Elliot Wave theory. Then so many books. I always wanted to
be a well-read person as an edge is necessary for long term survival. It's all in the books. Thanks to The Internet.
Well... It takes time, hard work and perseverance to become a surgeon, a lawyer, a player, and also a TRADER. But
beauty with the trading business is that It is SCALABLE. which inspired me to work hard and harder.
That's up for now. Later we 'll talk other things.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#36
These are the two trades i took on Crude yesterday.
05/08/2011 - (05 min)
Post#37
Quote:
Post#38
This is the TRADE i will be waiting for the next 2-3
2
months.
Post#39
Guys....Check out this LINE of THINKING.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#40
Theorem - 04: Market follows the 'Path of Least Resistance' just like current.
(a) When market is loaded with Short positions (OverSold) and cannot go further down and there are signs of stabilization, stay
alert a single trigger can surprise the market to the upside. As today is the status. Similarly for long positions.
(b) If market has formed a Resistance/Support line for itself, it pays attention to it in its next visit, It rebounds unless there is a
great force (High ADX) to penetrate it successfully.
(c) If a market becomes constrained within two opposite type of Trend lines /bull-bear forces, it expands in the direction of least
resistance. Driving force may be Risk/Reward ratio or one-sided market positions, HTF trend or whatever.
Theorem - 05 More Breakouts to the Upside are False than to the Downside.
It is a statistical fact so be cautious and always wait for confirmation. Refer Marcel Link's discussion on this.
Theorem - 06 SHORT SELLING is thrice faster in making MONEY than GOING LONG.
Just because of Gravity (Mass Mentality) working for it.
Check this out.
Post#41
Guys...Let's wait for this one too.
Trendlines: Lesser the angle with the Horizontal, Stronger the TRENDLINE is. and vice versa.
Post#47
Hey Guys....I would love to see guys contributing to this thread. That is Post the chart where the idea did/did not work..
Those who don't believe in it may plz spare this thread getting strayed away. Idea is not to waste anybody's TIME.
I would be posting my trades during the week on this idea. Also live trades in the making.. Keep on tracking this thread.
My Weekly trades for Gold, SILVER, NIFTY, Crude Oil are in the waiting.
I am confident we can repeat the same success again and again.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#48
Quote:
Post#50
Guys! this one was my second big call on NIFTY when it made 5177.
I just drew the Bearish Resistance Line somewhere into the future and now i smile that it gave me a great trade and is still
making me wait for another great trade.
Note: As per the statistical work done by Greg Morris on candlesticks. It is written that if 'Two Black Crows (CNR)'
pattern forms after a run up (Over-bought Market) then there is no need for any further confirmation just Go Short
and both the times it worked great.
CNR: Confirmation Not Required
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#51
THE END OF A BULL MARKET
(a) A very large IPO comes, masses participate in frenzy and it drags and soaks all the money from weak hands/retailers into the
market.
(b) People are over-leveraged.
If at all Institutional selling starts due to any trigger there is no further supply of losers' money buying this selling.
It gets pronounced day by day. And finally people come to believe it after second leg of selling called 'Washout'.
Next Time whenever NIFTY approaches 6300, and ADX is not above 30 it's time to close all long positions in the
market.
Post#57
Theorem 07: EVERY CLIMAX VOLUME FALL ALMOST ALWAYS RETESTS ITSELF BEFORE RISING.
COVER YOUR SHORTS & GO LONG.........Dr. Alexander Elder
Post#58
Quote:
Post#63
Hi All...
I would love to see those who are visiting this thread to mark their presence here.
Feeling that my work is benefiting someone would certainly drive me.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#64
This one is for S&P 500...
Post#65
Theorem-08: Low Volumes and Volatility are Often precursor to High Volatility in Price Action (PA).
Just because markets are dynamic place and their primary job is To churn money from weak hands to strong hands.
Theorem - 09: Every MOVE in the market has 'AT
'
LEAST' 3 legs.
AT LEAST is a rare word when used in trading just because trading is a game of probability and
and markets are a chaotic place. So
Post#67
Quote:
Post#69
NIFTY50 ANALYSIS:
Post#72
Hi Guys,
Today i got this opportunity to trade.
Just look what the difference two charts have.
(a) One is international chart (from eSignal website) - telling there is a clear Opportunity.
(b) Other one is from MCX, confusing and saying the opposite.
Post#74
Today's Trade:
Crude Oil....
While i am editing this post after MCX closed at 11:30 PM hourly charts SELL at C started performing and hit
at $79.25 and finally $77.6 to test B while we were sleeping in India.
Post#75
Quote:
Post#87
Guys!
Following links you may click for Silver, Gold and Crude
SILVER:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
GOLD:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
CRUDE:
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#90
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#94
Monday morning NIFTY should either open at 4940 or should crash to this value later on by Tuesday.
This is Rising Wedge formation.
Trade: GO SHORT if market opens +ve/Gap Up.
STOP LOSS: 5175
TARGET 4940.
Post#95
Post#97
Post#106
Guys! By this time NIFTY has already crossed the target to 4911.2.
I have covered my short positions. So you do.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#110
Quote:
For investing in Gold you need Commodity trading account not demat account.
Regarding how to trade - read at least all the posts of this thread
thre
especially previous one.
Best Wishes!
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#118
Quote:
Post#119
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#120
Quote:
This is incorrect.
Actually what i do is Wolfe Wave pattern.
Google it out for yourself.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#123
Quote:
Looks like to me too. But it will confirm itself very soon if NIFTY closes above 5170. Then Target goes to 5550 to 5600. Let's see
how it unfolds.
Plz check neckline it asks some correction.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#124
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#127
Guys! check out this chart of INFY...
Reasons of Trade:
(a) HH-HL means uptrend established. LH-LL means downtrend established.
(b) BUY or SELL with Stoch crossover.
This week NIFTY has made bullish engulfing pattern. Now, let's wait for SELL signal.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#128
Quote:
Believe me This IDEA works just because it is supported by classical Dow Theory.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#130
Quote:
Post#131
As per the pattern if at all silver takes away the swing Low then it should see $36-37
$36
levels.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#132
If you want to invest in Gold for few years then $1700 is the right price.
I am going to invest. I shall inform the day. I am waiting for time correction.
Gold is not a bubble. It is duly supported by central banks.
Post#135
Guys! may be you know it or not but i am now a days keeping S&P500 live open before me while trading Crude Oil.
Just because now a days Gold, Silver are taking a lot of cues from there.
Post#136
Quote:
No man! i meant your neckline should have passed from the point i have arrowed.
Post#140
Quote:
Post#141
Rules: Always draw both lines: one on closing basis at LH another with the peak point at LH.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#142
Guys! after a long wait finally our Trade on Crude has come.
You may SELL crude with SL at $91.12
Potential is at least up to $83 then to $79.
I am going to short it if S&P500 on Monday gives red candle as further confirmation.
Kamlesh Uttam
Quote:
Weekly chart
Daily Chart
Post#144
Quote:
Post#145
Post#147
Post#148
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#154
Quote:
Post#156
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#166
Quote:
Post#170
Post#171
Quote:
If market bounces off the trend line implies it is respecting and recognizing it.
If it penetrates it again and gain or it trades nearby for more time means trend line is likely to be broken.
Lesser the angle with the horizontal stronger the trend line is.
On first kiss market almost always responds to a trendline/level. But how much that only market would tell.
Post#183
Quote:
Post#189
Quote:
...
Quote:
. Cheers!....
Silver Future:
Bullish view: It should consolidate for along time first before moving up.
Bearish view: It may touch lower levels.
Suggestion: no fresh trades on daily/weekly charts.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#201
Quote:
Post#202
Guys! This is today's Wolfe Wave on NIFTY on 05 min chart.
....a Perfect one....i loved it...
Post#203
Post#205
Post-Martem of CRUDE OIL: WW nailed $77.55
Post#207
Quote:
thanks
prashanth
Gold would whisper in a week or two for a long position.
I will buy Gold contract of December.
Post#216
Post#223
Post#224
Guys! Gold has broken all support lines.
Right now @1545.
So we have to wait n watch for our entry.
Let's see how it responds to 1478.3
Post#224
Quote:
In this Gold Weekly chart, i think it's Hammer forming up. Good!
Let us wait on closing basis.
Post#226
http://stocata.org/sp500analysis_en/daily.html
Guys you may short S&P500 on NSE @1130 around.
Post#229
Quote:
1. Just Go with the trend because 'trend is your friend' as they say but only if you are with it.
it
2. Commodities trend a lot.
3. Check economic calender first for any forthcoming NEWS. Systems perform well in the absence of news..
news.
4. Take [240 min - 30 min - 5 min] all momentums together for intraday trade on 05 min chart. Highly probable trade.
5. Look for and draw valid trendlines on all TF.
Paper trade first at least 30 such trades. That you can finish in 2 weeks.
Then analyse the results. Frame rules and then trade with them.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#235
...no take dear.
Post#236
Quote:
Post#243
Guys! You may take this trade tomorrow. It is well-structured
well
Wolfe Wave.
I shall take it..................Kamlesh Uttam
Post#244
Guys! This the trade i am presently in today.
Same old fundas.
Post#246
Quote:
Finally, 4924.3 has been made on NIFTY Spot. Time is 2:46 PM now.
Now trail your SL order on one 15 min candle back.
Make sure that you close the positions before markets close.
Congrats! to those who made profits. I made 4999 - 4931 - 3 = 65 points per lot
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#253
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#256
Post#257
CRUDE OIL : 60 min
Post#258
Guys! this is the trade i would be waiting to take.
Let's hope it does not happen while we are sleeping in India.
Post#259
Gold became a victim of Hedge fund selling which has a feature 'when they sell they sell at any cost'.
Post#261
Quote:
Kiran
Welcome to the thread Kiran. I am happy to hear that you read all the posts, which is what i want from all the new joinees to
this thread. That ensures smooth continuity in the discussions.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#267
Guys! In this post i am going to discuss something very important about Stop Loss orders.
There are two usage of Stop Loss orders:
1. To Enter into the trade
2. To Exit out of the trade.
Stop Loss orders may be with Limit Price/@Market Price while Entering into the trade but must be @Market Price
while Exiting -- Richard Donchian
...............Just because while exiting, the reason for being into the trade vanishes. For example, if you have entered
into the trade to profit from momentum with a bullish stochastic crossover. Now trade goes into profit and
Stochastics finally makes bearish crossover. Now you MUST exit the trade without your order being skipped by the
market as bullish momentum has already vanished from the market.
Now look at the two cases:
(a) Suppose you have a limit price in the Stop Loss order and there comes a big order at your limit price or market
has low liquidity at that price your order may get skipped and your profits may disappear and if it is a losing trade
losses may swell. You never know how much damage market can do to you.
I have once suffered a big loss due to skip of SL order in the very liquid market of NIFTY where my gap between
Limit price and Trigger price was 1 point. I was in office and had opened a trade over phone and put a SL order and
was relaxed that if i am proved wrong my losses would be limited to my SL Limit price.
(b) Now if you have Stop Loss order as: Trigger price: (value) and Limit Price as '0' (zero). Then you don't have to
worry about liquidity etc. your order will get executed @market price and there is no danger of it being skipped
which is a must while EXIT. When you SHOULD exit (either with profit or loss) you MUST exit at any cost just
because the reason of the trade has vanished by then.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#273
Quote:
But i got Rs. 4000/- per lot within an hour so i said thank you to crude and forgot about it.
Next day you said you also had opened the trade. I could not recall which trade.. That's why i immediately told you
to square it off.
I don't want you to lose any money because of me at least.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#278
Quote:
Post#280
Guys! Check this out ...........NIFTY Today
Post#284
Quote:
But the Nifty futures had gone in the opposite direction. To hit an SL here is not the
issue.
Would it not be prudent to follow the charts for what we intends to trade. In the instant
case NF instead of NS.
SHEKHAR
I find it better to assume NIFTY Spot as primary chart....Futures as secondary.....
Post#286
Quote:
Post#289
Quote:
Post#292
Quote:
kamlesh Uttam
Post#296
Quote:
I cannot do that.
Post#297
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#298
Quote:
This was a not an easy trade as market was coming off a Number Support of $75.
But i bet on at least a retracement to make a HL and captured sufficient money.
Post#302
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#305
Quote:
Post#307
Guys! This is today's trade in Crude with BRL-[LH-LL]
Post#309
Quote:
I have been using it since more than 1 month...........Don't lose all your money in demo account...i think then they may block
it.....
Post#314
Happy Dussera to all of you!!!
Today i am going to publish my first major contribution to Traderji.com
Uttam's Method of SELLING v1.0
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#315
Set Up:
1. If market is coming off making a LH-LL (Weakness)
2. Kiss to BRL ( Strength)
3. Time symmetry between LH, LL & Kiss to BRL
Betting on:
Market has to bounce back from BRL, for a while at least, to either make a HL/ LL.
Guidelines:
1. Time symmetry between LH, LL and BRL Kiss is important for the success of the Set-up.
__(Ideally, equal time interval, range 0.5-2.0).
2. Stay cautious if the market is coming off Double/Triple Bottom, Number Support, etc.
3. Ensure that LL happens on a Closing basis.
4. Method excels in Bear markets, Ranging markets, Over-bought markets.
5. Lesser the angle of BRL with the horizontal, stronger it will act.
__Better Reward/Risk ratio for the trade means more market participants would sell with you.
6. Regarding exit/profit booking please read post #261 too.
7. Beauty in this set-up is that you know your approximate entry Price & Time way back.
__This reduces stress of tracking market's each candle.
Finally, it's the practice and experience gained which would better you at it day by day.
Best Wishes!
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#319
Quote:
Regards,
My first name is Kamlesh....surname is Uttam.....choice is at your convenience....
Plz tell me if you know....How can we add a new indicator in MT4 if we have the program file.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#321
Quote:
I have tried butterfly & gartley.....but calculations in Excel spreadsheet seemed of no use. Then i dropped it....This effort was
done in bull market in NIFTY...and i was making money with Elliot wave so i left the work there itself....I think you need some
software to do the calculations for you.
Please read Suri Duddela's Book - -Trade chart Patterns like the Pros.....
Post#322
Quote:
http://forexcoach.ru/1ongamenet/Trad...fe%20Waves.pdf
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#330
SHEKHAR....Time symmetry is little poor.....Continuous charts are preferred...
When in doubt just paper trade....i would have though taken the trade for scalping at least as 4700 is a good support from Daily
analysis....
Take decision from NIFTY Spot only....4950 would provide resistance....
Post#332
Bullish Wolfe Waves have been set up and running in S&P 500 as well as our NIFTY....120 min charts....in the evening i would
post the charts....
Don't go short on NIFTY....
Post#334
Quote:
Yes it is WW man!....also try to ensure you have a volume spike at point 5....
Post#341
Quote:
Here's the Crude 240 mins Chart... Sold at 82.48... SL at 84 (previous LH was 83.98).... Inserted a Take Profit level at 80.08
(good support around that area)....
Market is coming off Double Bottom on Daily chart....(Highter TF events are more powerful)...Well....BRL should be capturing
peaks at least at origin (far left end) ....
Post#345
KID ....Special thanks to you!!!!
Your help opens new horizon to my use of MT4....
Post#347
S&P500 ...180 min
Post#348
NIFTY 180 min....WW
Post#349
Gold 60 min WW...
Post#350
Post#351
NIFTY WW Today....Pin Point Accuracy....Wow!!!
Post#352
Post#354
Quote:
Post#357
Quote:
Post#364
Quote:
....
Hi Aditya!....For this trade your Stop Loss should have been...$84.06. A filter is always a good thing. Since $84 was
already a Number resistance so SL must be a little above it.
Post#366
Quote:
Post#367
Quote:
http://forexcoach.ru/1ongamenet/Trad...fe%20Waves.pdf
Kamlesh Uttam
Guys!....I hope by now all of you have downloaded Wolfe Wave manual by Bill Wolfe. If not please do so as soon as
possible.
It would improve our quality of WW discussions.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#368
Guys!...Today i went through all the posts in my thread. I felt very good.
You too may do so. It should benefit you even more.
Happy reading!
Post#370
Quote:
beginners with ratios. ( I wish I could post that , but my old HD crashed and with that went all of that). But what I did realise
rea
was
as that sometimes even if the ratios were right , the W did not work AND there were times when even if the ratios weren't right
rig
it worked out. What was needed was a swing high and a swing low , plus the symmetry should look right. In my experience it
would then work out.
Not withstanding that I mostly use W to identify an impending move and then look for confirmations through various other
oscillators , fundamentals etc.
Which is why I had asked you about the nifty bullish W yesterday. Murtaza is a much more experienced trader and who has a
good strike rate with W.
regards
Hey Hills_5000!...Plz imbibe the real WW trading from the original manual.
Then in NIFTY (being Index) you can hit more than 95%, believe me.
Post#377
Quote:
Post#378
[QUOTE=KID_of_MARKET;594388]is this copper ww?
Always look for a volume spike @ Point 5.
In this case it was not there.
Post#379
Quote:
Post#385
Quote:
Post#391
Three SELLS today as per Uttam's Method of SELLING
Post#393
Quote:
Post#396
WHEN A TRENDLINE GETS BROKEN....
Post#398
Guys! Uttam's Method of SELLING has not given me a single loss trade since the start of this thread. Patience is the Key i think.
th
If you still make losses....i am sorry for you!......
Post#399
Quote:
Post#408
Trade Coming: Apply Uttam's Method of SELLING on INFY on Weekly charts
I think shorting opportunity would come next week when NIFTY starts fighting 5200.
Post#413
TRADE COMING....CRUDE 60 min
Post#414
SaiVenkat is right....
Please learn to post good quality charts.
Now no need to enter NGas trade. Cream is already out.
Post#415
Post#417
Quote:
Post#425
Quote:
..
Post#426
This Trade has hit $86.03...i am scaling out.....Thanx Crude....
Post#434
Today's volume action on INFY Daily charts conveys profit booking on longs has already started.
You may SELL it...with SL @ 3051.
Post#435
Quote:
1. We want to see spike at the candle which makes point 5...i.e. extreme in that area. Here it's not the case, even if
you compress the chart to 60 min.
2. More the convergence of 1-3-5 & 2-4
4 lines more is the profit potential and faster EPA progress......
Post#436
Quote:
Post#442
By now Crude has made a Low of 83.50....
Trail with a Stop Loss order and completely exit at approximately 83.35......
Post#444
Quote:
.....anyways Think of yourself after six more months....That should inspire you to work harder for each trade and
practice more Patience
Post#445
Quote:
Post#446
Post#452
Quote:
@kamlesh
I am afraid your guess isn't correct. The above losing trade happened because you missed the rising bottom of the
wedge.
Please illustrate with a chart....i still can't see that way.
You are welcome to the thread.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#453
Quote:
Yes! it is Rising Wedge (Price Compression) and that too in an Overbought market. That's why the success.
Rising Wedge in an Overbought market is also called Three Little Indians as in Linda Raschke's Street Smarts book.
Without volume confirmation @5 let us not call it as WW.
Post#454
TODAY's WW in NIFTY
Post#456
HOW A POTENTIAL TRADE HAPPENS
Post#457
Aditya ....you should have included 1-3-5 BRL line from 4 hr chart which is the cause for price going south along
with the BRL coming from $1923 peak.
Your WW is also correct but larger picture gives you more confidence. Your Point 1 is at A.
Post#460
Quote:
1. Have you previously observed, what I had mentioned in the 30min Chart regarding reducing our Target Price in case point 5
doesn't touch the 1-3 Trendline.... I have a gut feeling that this should serve well in the Long Run.....
2. The 180min Chart that you posted, doesn't have the Time Symmetry at all.... I have seen such charts in the manual by Bill
Wolfe that you had posted earlier.... But what has been your experience regarding the success ratio of such WW which doesn't
depict the Time Symmetry well enough
Hope you don't mind me asking such questions.... I am not new to WW... Had tried learning it earlier, but somehow couldn't
grasp it well enough..... Now that you are an experienced WW practitioner yourself, I would like to know and understand the
intricacies of this phenomenon well enough.....
Regards
1. That's good and subjective. You can practice it. But i wait for EPA hit only when other things support, market psychology etc.
Otherwise point 4 starts putting resistance unless it is a well-structured WW.
2. Time symmetry is essential. Otherwise success ratio becomes poor. I don't take those approximated trades. There are plenty
of trades to make money if you track 5-6 markets. Why to take junk ones?
Post#461
Quote:
Post#471
Post#473
Post#475
Quote:
I am aware that most of us have standard 'wedge' patterns in mind. No wonder you guys didn't see the one I was
talking about. What is wedge anyway? Well, by rough definition, any two continuing lines in a plane, moving in the
same direction, will create one if their angles are converging. As simple as that.
I am afraid I don't have access to crude oil chart, so I drew the one I saw (in green) in yours.
In 'trading' wedges, candles keep getting squeezed from either or both sides. That is, no room for high amplitude
waves. Decision point. If you are familiar with median lines (check two parallel, and one bisecting, white lines),
Demark's seq (or power of 9), then shooting through the trendline was on the cards anyway after getting the
supply side almost dried in previous two sharp down moves. Hence, the rising of the bottom within the boundry of
drawn wedge.
For confirmation, you can check the Stochs or RSI for positive divergence buildup. Also you may find huge volume
spikes under the drawn wedge. Normally this kind of drama happens when the big players decide to shoot through
the SLs or book profits on the high. And I guess the price must have sharply plunged later as the bearish Wolfe
pattern would have formed, leaving both small-time bulls and bears high and dry! Typical...
PS. Alright then. Paid for my last night's 'transgression'. Carry on with your good, selfless work. Best of luck.
"Well, by rough definition, any two continuing lines in a plane, moving in the same direction, will create one if their angles are
converging." ...........
Please check upper green line is Downwards and lower green line is Upwards.
Also, i believe definition should not be 'rough' otherwise it would not be defining anything, which is what it should
do.
In this instance also rough approximation lead to incorrect pattern recognition.
Following is the link to access crude oil chart for your convenience.
http://quotes.esignal.com/esignalpro...chart.studies=
Please see if "And I guess the price must have sharply plunged later as the bearish Wolfe pattern would have formed, leaving
both small-time bulls and bears high and dry! Typical." came true. as i cannot see any bearish WW set up.
Anyways...Best Wishes!.
Post#476
@Saivenkat and
@Rafi
Dear friends, Please get the original manual for Wolfe Waves from Bill Wolfe himself. There is a lot more to WW.
I have already provided the link.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#478
Theorem 12: TREND is the BIGGEST pattern. Trend lines the BIGGEST indicator.
Theorem 13: Trend REVERSAL takes multifold force as compared to Trend CONTINUATION.
Post#479
CRONIMET is in full momentum....Made a high of 135....i bought at 104.
Post#480
DISH TV has started moving up....I bought it at 74.......made a high of 83.7
Post#481
Post#483
Quote:
@Aditya
Take extreme points while choosing 1, 2, 3 and 4 as shown above.
Post#499
Post#500
Post#505
Quote:
Post#509
Quote:
Post#513
Post#517
Quote:
Post#518
Covered at 4251.
Net Profits: (4399-4251-2) x 3= 44k....while i was sleeping!.
Post#519
Post#521
Post#533
Quote:
Post#536
Quote:
...
Post#554
Quote:
Aditya...i have shown already at least thrice that when a trend line breaks market reverses back to it to get
bounced off again to confirm its action of trend line break , so why should anyone put SL order to get stopped out
which is the right time to enter in fact. The upper tail of the candle you are seeing in enclosed box there is the
handiwork of Big Boys.....This phenomenon is very frequent one.
Post#556
Quote:
Post#558
Quote:
In trading accuracy and discipline matters, otherwise years of profits vaporize in few months.
Post#560
Quote:
Post#561
Quote:
....
Post#566
Quote:
confidence about its success.... I am still in learning stages, so these points do sometimes slip off my mind.... You won't find me
repeating the same mistake again....Thank You!
But... we did get an unfavourable move to the extent of almost 5%.... This is a huge move.... If you did trade it.(did not take)..
Please share how did you handle it...
Did you close the position after the break of sideways move and re-entered again after successful retest?..........Answered
below
No luck... Just paper trading and making virtual money... Don't have a Commodities Account yet
Let me guess what you are referring to Bill's idea... Are you referring to drawing the lines from point 3 and point 1 which are
parallel to the line 2-4.....
So, do you place the Stops around the line drawn from point 1........No comments now!
No idea about Linda Raschke's book.... Is it freely available on the internet?....YES!!
Regards
(a) First way to enter:
In a highly Overbought (All bulls tired) market sell above 1-3-5 line itself.
(b) Second way to Enter:
Let point 5 be made above 1-3 line then in the next candle in the same TF volume must reduce. Then after volume
confirmation you may enter.
(c) Third way to enter:
After 2-4 line is broken....but here you need to trail your SL order because market has to retest the Trendline 24 (assume by default).
(d) Fourth way to Enter:
When retest of the Trendline 2-4 occurs.
and vice-versa for Oversold markets......but I am more comfortable beaing a bear
!....
Post#568
Quote:
Hi kamleshji,
when the trendline is broken should we look in the same TF or move on the HTF to see weather the broke is a fake
or real one. Are there any chances of "FAKE" break of the TL.. If so is any any possibility to check its confirmation.
Just being a learner asked out of curiosity as question may seem a little bit stupid. hope u will
reply..........THANQ........CHEERS!!!!!
FAKE or REAL only market would tell later on....HTF is always welcome and draw all valid trendlines then make
decision.
Experience would make you better day by day.
Post#573
Post#574
Now, Crude Oil has got trapped between a Bullish Support Line (BSL-T1, white) and a Bearish Resistance Line (BRL(BRL
T2).
Post#575
Guys! You must be wondering why in my posts i am more focussed towards Crude Oil.
(a) Crude Oil market is the biggest (less manipulable), most liquid (a TA trader's delight) market in commodities.
(b) It's weight-age on commodity indexes is highest approx. 35%, making it a leader.
(c) It has good volatility(a TA trader's delight). Billionaire traders are active in it.
All the above reasons make it the most desirable market for learning Technical Analysis which works best in the
less manipulable markets.
Now, as there is always a Bear Camp and a Bull camp of Big Boys in the markets.
We try to trade with the winning camp.
Post#577
In this post i am going to discuss importance of Reward/Risk ratio and proper profit booking to make trading
profitable.
What is Trading?.............Trading is a statistical Business.
Any average trading system or pattern can perform with 60-70% probability in the hands of an average trader. That means out
of 100 trades that he makes he gets profit in 60 trades rest 40 are in loss.
For example, trading 05 min chart of Crude Oil at MCX, he has a rule that 'if my SL is more than Rs. 2000 away from my entry I
would not take a trade', so maximum losses that he would accumulate would be (2000+100)x40 = 84000. Now, table below
shows how profit booking plays the most crucial factor in making you profitable.
That means even if you hit 60% of the time right but if you book 1000 for 2000 at risk, you would blow up your account sooner
or later.
Conclusions:
1. Follow the system where you can figure out your Risk and Reward before entering the trade.
For Example For WW (Target is Point 4 [at least] and then EPA line) and UMS (Target at least previous LL).
2. Reward/Risk ratio must be more than 2. Less than 2, trade is junk one!!
3. Try trading with at least 2 units, i.e. one for Short term(Exit at point 4, previous LL) and
one for Long Term (Trail with SL order and wait for EPA line and further crack in UMS)........More illustrations in Robert Miner's
book.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#579
Quote:
Post#585
@Aditya,
1. Could you find out Nickel chart on eSignal.com?
2. Let us find out source of Open Interest on Crude Oil on daily closing basis, at least.
Post#587
Quote:
Post#596
Post#597
Post#598
Quote:
thread who would consistently update about upcoming high probability trades in NIFTY, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver,
Copper, Stocks etc..with solid reasoning and clarity.
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#604
Quote:
Post#605
Quote:
Post#611
Post#612
Post#613
Post#617
Quote:
No Dear....it's poor labeling right now we need rhythm in price and time.
Collect all examples on this method in this thread and watch them in slide show then you would get your eyes set better.....
Post#618
Quote:
Post#621
Post#622
Quote:
Post#626
...
Post#627
Quote:
..... I would post some of the charts of Minifty if you want..... I don't have them right now, would post them
Regards
Surely, i would wait for you to unfold the magic before all of us.
Post#629
Post#632
Quote:
Quote:
Post#690
@EagleOne
I hope you would agree that we are wasting our and others' time if we talk anything other than trading here. So, let the calls do
the talking.
I am concerned about the thread more than anything else. I have put a lot of time to it. Just want everybody, including you, to
enrich it.
Post#691
Post#692
Post#703
@Abhi_neth,
You are going good. I liked your posts.
Can your candles be slimmer, so that chart covers more candles and trend-lines.
Post#706
Quote:
Kamlesh Uttam
Post#708
Post#710
Post#714
Post#715
Quote:
I am unable to see firt 5 bids and ask (total buyers and sellers) in GCI mt4.Could you help me?
I think not available.
Post#716
Quote:
, can you guide what happens next - "as per this scenario we are to go blw 4700 after kissing the Bearish Resistance
Kailash...i think now breaking 4700 would only be possible if at all recession becomes a reality. Probability for Part-II does not
appeal me now.
Post#718
Quote:
Post#720
Thread Statistics:
Start Date: 30 July
Views: 27000+
Posts: 700+
9000 views per month. Not bad. Cheers!...
Post#721
Why Trendlines are the Best Indicator?
There are numerous indicators for each category, Trend, Momentum, Oscillators and Volume indicators. Every
trader has his/her own on the chart.
But Trendlines are UNIQUE because they need only two points to draw and when market CONFIRMS it with point 3,
It becomes a must TRENDLINE present in chart of nearly every effective trader.
And where there is consensus among the traders there is a move in the market.
Post#725
Quote:
Post#727
Quote:
CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MR
Good to see that green line in your chart.
Well ...Gold may slow down it's speed for a while and bounce off from a less steep trendline (see my posted chart
on Gold) but i think Trend is clearly up.
1662 is the first target.
Post#732
Quote:
Well i would not say it is a WW due to ambiguity of points 2, 4 but the idea of success of WW is present,
i.e., Price Compression and Falling Wedge in a Bullish Chart.
Post#736
Post#738
Quote:
Yes!...this WW would give best trade at around 550 with volume confirmation.
Post#745
Quote:
Post#749
Post#750
The last W. you would have shorted at point 5 , right ? it then went down and retraced all the way to point 7. Would have been a
failed W right since SL would have been hit seeing the price reverse and head towards point 7.......YES! this is a loss making
trade. But volume spike at Point 7 would again give a trade and when WW forms with 1-3-5-7 it has higher chances
of hitting EPA, very common in commodities (e.g. latest WW on Crude, overnight trade.)
So with real money I dont think it would have worked for sure. It would have been a losing trade.
Next. Isnt there a W formed ( bullish one) and as of today the price is on its way upto the EPA?
just my observations
Post#757
@Kavima,
Welcome to the thread.
In one post i have provided a link to download the original Wolfe Wave manual. Please download it and go through it. That would
make things very clear.
Well this is not correct WW as 1-3-5 and 2-4 lines are not converging.
Your point 1 should be swing Low.
Post#758
Post#759
Guys!...Crude Oil is the best market to practice TA, i again stress it.
Please always keep a vigil on it.
Recently i finished a chapter on 'Trendlines in Action' from Edwards and Magee's Technical Analysis of Stock Trends,
9th Edition. It is a paisa-vasool chapter.
Post#760
Post#764
Quote:
Post#767
Quote:
Post#769
Guys!
This is the new thread i have started for a query on long term investing.
Please share your thoughts in it.
http://www.traderji.com/equities/616...njhunwala.html
es/616...njhunwala.html
Post#770
Post#776
Post#778
Quote:
Whenever price hits my required level in MT4, i execute market order in MCX. Place SL from Swing/High Low in
MCX. That's it. No calculations etc.
Post#787
Quote:
Post#795
Quote:
Post#803
Quote:
Post#820
Quote:
Rafi...If you join 1-3 with Swing Lows you would not get WW.
Post#822
Quote:
Post#828
@Aditya,
I liked all your analysis, it's flawless in the post. Keep it up dear!
Post#829
Guys! Let us search for a very good head and shoulder indicator for MT4.
Post#832
Post#849
Quote:
2. Also, market psychology is that now it is active buying that is driving crude. Bulls should tire at around $100
now.
Post#853
Quote:
Please upload it at some place like 4shared.com and provide us the link.
I myself need the compilation.
Post#855
Quote:
Post#860
Guys! you may download Trendline indicator from here.
TrendLines.mq4
It does not give exhaustive trendlines but i cross check my lines with it so that i do not miss any important one which others
may be considering.
Trendlines of type-02 are not given by it. That we have to draw.